Nothing to see here. It has been made clear before that
a) stock value is reflecting not so much company health but mainly growth potential. And currently, Apple makes most profit from selling iPhones which is reaching a steady state. On the past, adding regions and carriers has been a big growth driver. This is close to gone. again, nothing to worry from a company wealth perspective as it will have a steady rate of switchers and upgraders.
b) some funds are into the short run, not the long haul. And Apple has a strong growth potential IMO in two areas: services and new hardware categories, both of which require some time to mature to a point where they can replace previous growth by iPhone hardware sales.
The he only thing I found concerning recently is Tim Cook's somewhat inconsistent narrative in earning calls. Listen eg torte last episode of Gruber's The Talkshow for details. But again, not at all concerning company health or long term growth potential.
People buy and sell for many different reasons, and I agree the stock action doesn't necessarily reflect company health. Whether iPhone sales have reached a "steady state" or not depends on how you look at the sales data. iPhone sales growth looks poor if you use YOY comps, however if you step back and plot 2nd quarter sales iPhone sales growth is still in tact.
I could agree with the "steady state" view you mentioned if' the quarter's sales numbers dropped below the trend line. It may happen next quarter, but too early to say "steady state" has been reached. None of this matters, though, as the market does what it does and the technicals are driving the price action.
Hedge funds always dump losers, so I suppose it's not that unusual for them to be dumping Apple. Instead, they'll be buying Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet, Facebook, Microsoft, etc. It's not easy for a CEO to ruin a company unless he's trying to do it deliberately. Tim Cook has really soured most of the big investors. Think of how many shares Apple can buy back for $75 a share. It will be interesting to see how many since that's where Apple appears to be headed. I suppose it was inevitable Apple becoming a second-rate investment after joining the Dow. The Dow curse must be in full effect at this point. No investors will be buying Apple unless they surely want to lose their money. I still can't understand how Apple's management missed the signs of a fully saturated smartphone market. It seemed so obvious to practically everyone else.
I don't feel the reason is iPhone market saturation. It's the reason last summer I bought a clear out new 5c at C$400, rather than a new 6 at C$900. It replaced my 4.5 yr old iPhone 4. The very high US$ has pushed the iPhone price up over 30% in many countries .
The new 5se would have been very attractive to me.
They predicted the slowdown in the last quarter statement and they were pretty much bang on the money. Was I concerned about the slowdown? Nope, because for anyone watching, this is how Apple has run its business for the past fifteen years: hit a market, bleed it dry, move on to the next market. They are the Independence Day aliens of the tech world.
We'll see a few peaks and dips in iPhone sales over the coming years, but Apple is now preparing to move on.
No predicted YOY slowdown because of the aberration that the 2015 iPhone created (larger form). Over a 2 or 3 yr comparison iPhone shipments increased. Not saying a slowdown may not occur in future Qtr's.
Round about January, Cook mentioned that we'd see a slowdown for the next quarter. When the last set of figures came out, they pretty much nailed the number. The analysts were disappointed because they routinely ignore Apple's guidance and shoot for the moon.
Hedge funds always dump losers, so I suppose it's not that unusual for them to be dumping Apple. Instead, they'll be buying Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet, Facebook, Microsoft, etc. It's not easy for a CEO to ruin a company unless he's trying to do it deliberately. Tim Cook has really soured most of the big investors. Think of how many shares Apple can buy back for $75 a share. It will be interesting to see how many since that's where Apple appears to be headed. I suppose it was inevitable Apple becoming a second-rate investment after joining the Dow. The Dow curse must be in full effect at this point. No investors will be buying Apple unless they surely want to lose their money. I still can't understand how Apple's management missed the signs of a fully saturated smartphone market. It seemed so obvious to practically everyone else.
I dumped the remaining shares I owned at $107, and have been making good premium selling naked calls all the way down! I love Apple I have made so much money on this recent collapse. Its going to be a long summer for Apple and I'm guessing the stock will go to 80. In any event, I'll follow the key traders and just follow the trend which ever way it goes. It's generally easier to make money by following that momentum. I won't sell any puts until the stock has consolidated and then sell the volatility as it bounces up. I would think it might rally towards the IP7 release and by selling ITM PUTS sell even more of the vol. Even if they get PUT to me , I'll simply sell covered calls on those and make even more profit. I don't give damn about predicting iPhone sales or arguing with people on here about , what will or will not be the new design, what matters to me is that the stock moves and that there is a good amount of volatility to make some quick profits as it rolls up and down between support and resistance.
If that were to happen they will make money from the whiners who waited too long to sell and capitulate at the bottom. The smart guys are the ones who sell when pivot points are breached because their experience tells them there is more risk than reward at those points the whiners probably know very little about how to trade like these "smart" guys and vent their frustration in the wrong direction.
Such is the MO of losers/victims - all they do is whine about everything as they get wiped out.
I still can't understand how Apple's management missed the signs of a fully saturated smartphone market. It seemed so obvious to practically everyone else.
Why would you think they ...missed the signs?
Because they didn't magically put out some new market / product out of their ass?
As if anybody else did?
For one, Apple predicted it, on their warnings to investors etc.
Second, they have long been preparing other stuff, from venturing into wearables, to the long bet TV thing, to payments all the way to the "Apple Car".
It would be a delight if AAPL wasn't a favorite target for market manipulation by hedge fund barons. True also of several other productive, valuable companies whose paper value on Wall Street is nothing more than a commodity to be traded like pork bellies.
So a fund thinks there are stocks out there that they can make more money with than Apple? What is the word I am looking for....so? It certainly doesn't merit much of a "news" item and definitely doesn't merit the largely brain dead comments being made in this thread. It must be horrible to live in such ignorance.
I dumped the remaining shares I owned at $107, and have been making good premium selling naked calls all the way down! I love Apple I have made so much money on this recent collapse. Its going to be a long summer for Apple and I'm guessing the stock will go to 80. In any event, I'll follow the key traders and just follow the trend which ever way it goes. It's generally easier to make money by following that momentum. I won't sell any puts until the stock has consolidated and then sell the volatility as it bounces up. I would think it might rally towards the IP7 release and by selling ITM PUTS sell even more of the vol. Even if they get PUT to me , I'll simply sell covered calls on those and make even more profit. I don't give damn about predicting iPhone sales or arguing with people on here about , what will or will not be the new design, what matters to me is that the stock moves and that there is a good amount of volatility to make some quick profits as it rolls up and down between support and resistance.
If that were to happen they will make money from the whiners who waited too long to sell and capitulate at the bottom. The smart guys are the ones who sell when pivot points are breached because their experience tells them there is more risk than reward at those points the whiners probably know very little about how to trade like these "smart" guys and vent their frustration in the wrong direction.
Such is the MO of losers/victims - all they do is whine about everything as they get wiped out.
Guys, we have Gordon Gekko on the forum!
Hedge funds -- who, btw, are not 'hedged' in the least -- are one of most overrated industries around. They significantly underperform basic benchmarks (see the raw data at the most comprehensive index of HFs that is out there: http://www.barclayhedge.com/products/list-of-hedge-funds.html). With $3 trillion in assets, >10,000 funds and too much money chasing too few opportunities, they're no better than a blindfolded monkey throwing darts to picks assets. Yet they charge you a fee of 2% on you money (win or lose) and take 20% of your profits (and no, they don't make up 20% of your losses).
I am am not denying that some of them, like Tepper, did well at one point. Massively well. However, it is impossibly difficult to separate luck from skill, and momentum from timing, in their performance. There are gobs of studies that show that.
Hedge funds -- who, btw, are not 'hedged' in the least -- are one of most overrated industries around. They significantly underperform basic benchmarks (see the raw data at the most comprehensive index of HFs that is out there: http://www.barclayhedge.com/products/list-of-hedge-funds.html). With $3 trillion in assets, >10,000 funds and too much money chasing too few opportunities, they're no better than a blindfolded monkey throwing darts to picks assets. Yet they charge you a fee of 2% on you money (win or lose) and take 20% of your profits (and no, they don't make up 20% of your losses).
I am am not denying that some of them, like Tepper, did well at one point. Massively well. However, it is impossibly difficult to separate luck from skill, and momentum from timing, in their performance. There are gobs of studies that show that.
Quite a few years ago, I came across a news article which reported on a study done by an economist at a UK university, of traders who worked in the big investment banks in London. He looked at the traders performance to determine how successful they actually were. The conclusion was that none of them had any ability to consistently pick winners over time and that their actual long term performance was no better than random chance. Some of them had winning streaks, but these were never maintained and were countered by losing streaks..
At the time, these traders were famous for their swagger, vanity and their massive six figure bonuses. The banks could have done as well with the blindfolded monkeys you mention, but with better overall results because they wouldn't have been forking out billions in bonuses.
Hedge funds -- who, btw, are not 'hedged' in the least -- are one of most overrated industries around. They significantly underperform basic benchmarks (see the raw data at the most comprehensive index of HFs that is out there: http://www.barclayhedge.com/products/list-of-hedge-funds.html). With $3 trillion in assets, >10,000 funds and too much money chasing too few opportunities, they're no better than a blindfolded monkey throwing darts to picks assets. Yet they charge you a fee of 2% on you money (win or lose) and take 20% of your profits (and no, they don't make up 20% of your losses).
I am am not denying that some of them, like Tepper, did well at one point. Massively well. However, it is impossibly difficult to separate luck from skill, and momentum from timing, in their performance. There are gobs of studies that show that.
Quite a few years ago, I came across a news article which reported on a study done by an economist at a UK university, of traders who worked in the big investment banks in London. He looked at the traders performance to determine how successful they actually were. The conclusion was that none of them had any ability to consistently pick winners over time and that their actual long term performance was no better than random chance. Some of them had winning streaks, but these were never maintained and were countered by losing streaks..
At the time, these traders were famous for their swagger, vanity and their massive six figure bonuses. The banks could have done as well with the blindfolded monkeys you mention, but with better overall results because they wouldn't have been forking out billions in bonuses.
Lying, deceitful, clickbait headline- and it looks like the trolls here have taken the bait.
"Appaloosa unloads all Apple shares as other hedge funds trim position"
Real headline:
"Appaloosa unloads Apple shares 6 MONTHS AGO".
Just like the other macrumors headline today about a different investor:
"Second Investor Dumps Shares as Apple Stock Drops to Near Two-Year Low"
This guy also dumped his shares in 2015, ages ago.
Again, this blatantly false headline is meant to strengthen the narrative that everyone is jumping ship right now, and act as motivation for others to do so too. Also, I don't see the point of these stories? Do we need to stay current on who is buying and selling at every given moment? Who gives a fuck? It's meaningless, since these people have zero insight into the future of the company, and nothing can be assumed by it. Apple Insider is no better than the Mike Daisies of the world, exploiting the narrative and posting deceitful headlines in order to shit on Apple even more and falsely "confirming" the negativity through filthy and deceptive ways.
No one gets every trade correct, that's impossible. It's only amateurs who think they can get it right all the time. All one can really do is recognize the risk/reward, set stops, minimize the downside and move to the next trade. The difference between the whiners (amateurs) is they look at the upside potential FIRST. This is called greed. The Professional looks at the downside FIRST! and keep emotion out of it. Currently aapl's downside is a lot more than the upside.
Spot on.
Amateurs get emotionally involved in their investments, which makes it casino gambling, not investing.
Thanks for the support!
We need people to be emotional otherwise there would be no-one to make money from. Such is the way of the world. I look at it like the advertising business. It's goal is to convince consumers into making irrational , emotion based decisions. All we have to do is look at all the "articles" or "news" on Yahoo, cnbc, Barons etc to see the programming attempting to convince the amateurs to make stupid buy or sell decisions.
As I alway say "Don't criticize a fool, take from him"
P.S. I have heard it said that most decisions to buy are made without even looking at the fundamentals of the company or even looking at the chart. Joe Blow simply get an idea is his head that he want to buy a stock. He may wake up one day and based on subliminal advertising or simply having seen a headline about say Amazon for example on the front page. He puts in a market order to buy a few shares.
Amateurs get emotionally involved in their investments, which makes it casino gambling, not investing.
We need people to be emotional otherwise there would be no-one to make money from. Such is the way of the world. I look at it like the advertising business. It's goal is to convince consumers into making irrational , emotion based decisions. All we have to do is look at all the "articles" or "news" on Yahoo, cnbc, Barons etc to see the programming attempting to convince the amateurs to make stupid buy or sell decisions.
I don't believe this is the case - people/institutions have different reasons for buying and selling - some may be trading out of fear/greed, but the big money players which drive the price action are following a set of rules. They may have different time horizons, entrance and exits criteria, but aren't selling because they are emotional. I agree with you that money can be made whether a stock goes up, down, or sideways, but the attitude in your posts might be the reason for backlash you're receiving. I believe the majority of people who come to this site are people who care about Apple and their products, and are not in the mindset where they want to hear about capitalizing on Aapl price deterioration.
We need people to be emotional otherwise there would be no-one to make money from.
I think it was Buffet who said, "The stock market is a device to transfer wealth from the impatient to the patient." That's what Apple bulls are banking on right now. It makes a lot of sense if you bought AAPL 10 years ago, but it's cold comfort if you bought near the highs in 2012, during which time, it's become a fairly predictable trading stock. The big question right now is whether the 7 is going to provide the catalyst or whether the market will mostly blow it off and wait for the 8. It could well be another year before AAPL regains its mojo, and it will certainly help the more it goes down in the meantime, i.e. a replay of 2013, but stretched out even longer. People who aren't in love with Apple/AAPL definitely have the advantage, because they can wait until it becomes a no-brainer again.
Comments
Whether iPhone sales have reached a "steady state" or not depends on how you look at the sales data. iPhone sales growth looks poor if you use YOY comps, however if you step back and plot 2nd quarter sales iPhone sales growth is still in tact.
I could agree with the "steady state" view you mentioned if' the quarter's sales numbers dropped below the trend line. It may happen next quarter, but too early to say "steady state" has been reached. None of this matters, though, as the market does what it does and the technicals are driving the price action.
It's the reason last summer I bought a clear out new 5c at C$400, rather than a new 6 at C$900.
It replaced my 4.5 yr old iPhone 4.
The very high US$ has pushed the iPhone price up over 30% in many countries .
The new 5se would have been very attractive to me.
Round about January, Cook mentioned that we'd see a slowdown for the next quarter. When the last set of figures came out, they pretty much nailed the number. The analysts were disappointed because they routinely ignore Apple's guidance and shoot for the moon.
Because they didn't magically put out some new market / product out of their ass?
As if anybody else did?
For one, Apple predicted it, on their warnings to investors etc.
Second, they have long been preparing other stuff, from venturing into wearables, to the long bet TV thing, to payments all the way to the "Apple Car".
-kp
I am am not denying that some of them, like Tepper, did well at one point. Massively well. However, it is impossibly difficult to separate luck from skill, and momentum from timing, in their performance. There are gobs of studies that show that.
At the time, these traders were famous for their swagger, vanity and their massive six figure bonuses. The banks could have done as well with the blindfolded monkeys you mention, but with better overall results because they wouldn't have been forking out billions in bonuses.
"Appaloosa unloads all Apple shares as other hedge funds trim position"
Real headline: "Appaloosa unloads Apple shares 6 MONTHS AGO".
Just like the other macrumors headline today about a different investor:
"Second Investor Dumps Shares as Apple Stock Drops to Near Two-Year Low"
This guy also dumped his shares in 2015, ages ago.
Again, this blatantly false headline is meant to strengthen the narrative that everyone is jumping ship right now, and act as motivation for others to do so too. Also, I don't see the point of these stories? Do we need to stay current on who is buying and selling at every given moment? Who gives a fuck? It's meaningless, since these people have zero insight into the future of the company, and nothing can be assumed by it. Apple Insider is no better than the Mike Daisies of the world, exploiting the narrative and posting deceitful headlines in order to shit on Apple even more and falsely "confirming" the negativity through filthy and deceptive ways.
We need people to be emotional otherwise there would be no-one to make money from. Such is the way of the world. I look at it like the advertising business. It's goal is to convince consumers into making irrational , emotion based decisions. All we have to do is look at all the "articles" or "news" on Yahoo, cnbc, Barons etc to see the programming attempting to convince the amateurs to make stupid buy or sell decisions.
As I alway say "Don't criticize a fool, take from him"
P.S. I have heard it said that most decisions to buy are made without even looking at the fundamentals of the company or even looking at the chart. Joe Blow simply get an idea is his head that he want to buy a stock. He may wake up one day and based on subliminal advertising or simply having seen a headline about say Amazon for example on the front page. He puts in a market order to buy a few shares.
This has had absolutely no positive effect.
I agree with you that money can be made whether a stock goes up, down, or sideways, but the attitude in your posts might be the reason for backlash you're receiving. I believe the majority of people who come to this site are people who care about Apple and their products, and are not in the mindset where they want to hear about capitalizing on Aapl price deterioration.