Supply chain data suggests Apple slightly cutting iPhone 7 orders, endangering growth forecasts

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in iPhone
A new supply chain report suggest that Apple may be reigning in build orders for iPhone 7 family of devices, potentially putting some year-over-year growth projections in danger.




A note issued on Tuesday by UBS Global Research, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider, claims that procurement estimates for the iPhone 7 over the current quarter and next quarter are down.

While analyst Steven Milunovich believes that the Apple's first fiscal year quarter ending in December will still see growth, it is "too soon to make a call" on the following quarter's sales. He believes Apple may be tightening the chain to avoid a glut of stock, like it experienced with the iPhone 6s family.

At present, UBS estimates that production numbers for the quarter ending in December has dropped from 75 million to 74 million units, with March estimates falling to 42 million versus 43 million in 2016. As a result of the iPhone SE being nearly a year in March, average selling prices should remain higher than all but the first quarter of 2016.




Build orders do not equal sales, however. Apple is estimated to sell 76 million iPhones in the holiday quarter, an increase year-over-year of over one million units.

In other areas of the company, UBS is expecting a 2 percent drop in units sold in the first fiscal quarter of 2017, compared to a year ago, with no change in Mac average selling price to speak of. It is also expecting a 5 percent fall in iPad units versus the holiday quarter a year ago, with an increase of 8 percent in average selling price.




The company retains its view that upgrades will pick up in the end of 2017 and 2018 with a re-design of the iPhone. A possibility of new products "required to excite investors beyond a trade" exists in augmented reality and virtual reality technologies on the distant horizon, according to the analyst firm.

Other perspectives

In September, T-Mobile's CEO and an assortment of South Korean analysts claimed record sales of the Apple iPhone 7 family, with the South Korean analysts expecting 100 million sales of the new iPhone models before the end of the 2016 calendar year.

Other analysts noted shortly after the iPhone 7 launch that negative reports about Apple sales after the first week were impacted by "essentially zero" iPhone 7 Plus models available for weekend sale, with no similar constraints for the launch of the iPhone 6S.

Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities has claimed sales of the iPhone 7 by the end of 2016 would fall between 70 million and 75 million.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 21
    Not this BS again. When will these idiots learn? 
    SpamSandwichcali
  • Reply 2 of 21
    macxpressmacxpress Posts: 4,584member
    EVERYONE PANIC!!!! Sell your stock now! /s
    dysamoria
  • Reply 3 of 21
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 4,283member
    Here we go again, but most likely as the article pointed out, Apple may be avoiding what happen last years of have too much supply going into Q1. With China still having growth problems they most likely will not buy lots of iphone in 2017. It is smart for apple to control the supply and manage it accordingly. This is not a bad things, but the market will use it to slam the stock and short the hell out of it.
  • Reply 4 of 21
    After two years riding the AAPL rollercoaster, I liquidated my holdings this week.  Of course I still love and use Apple products every day, and I'm having fun developing iOS apps.  But I've decided -- for ME -- it's much more enjoyable to be an Apple customer (and follower) than an AAPL investor.  Just my opinion, of course.
    edited November 2016 afrodrilkrupp
  • Reply 5 of 21
    Two grave problems threaten iPhone growth: they cannot make enough of them to supply demand, and they have to decrease production as demand is too low. Apple is certainly doomed...
    dangermouse2andrewj5790brakkencali
  • Reply 6 of 21
    AAPL will go directly to 200 when they finally introduce the iBrush toothbrush with chamfered edges and Bluetooth 
    afrodrihuckdaisy1brakkencali
  • Reply 7 of 21
    It's basically impossible to glean meaningful insight from supply chain insights. Apple do a tremendous service by reporting their sales figures (unlike say Samsung.) So it's merely a matter of waiting for a quarterly statement.
    cali
  • Reply 8 of 21
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,408member
    No shit, Sherlock. With all the wild rumors about the iPhone 8 being OLED and curved and other nonsense, with analysts predicting the iPhone 8 will be a blowout hit and the next big thing, you think some potential buyers might decide to wait awhile? Hmmm? This is how rumors can be used to manipulate AAPL. Talk up the rumors and make a crap ton of money shorting the stock. Then start buying at the bottom and start pumping the iPhone 7 or iPad or MacBook again, make another crap ton of money on the way up. Ever wonder why AAPL’s chart looks like a sawtooth waveform? 
    edited November 2016 cali
  • Reply 9 of 21
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,408member
    After two years riding the AAPL rollercoaster, I liquidated my holdings this week.  Of course I still love and use Apple products every day, and I'm having fun developing iOS apps.  But I've decided -- for ME -- it's much more enjoyable to be an Apple customer (and follower) than an AAPL investor.  Just my opinion, of course.
    Amen, brother.
  • Reply 10 of 21
    After two years riding the AAPL rollercoaster, I liquidated my holdings this week.  Of course I still love and use Apple products every day, and I'm having fun developing iOS apps.  But I've decided -- for ME -- it's much more enjoyable to be an Apple customer (and follower) than an AAPL investor.  Just my opinion, of course.
    Like any stock, if you don't get in early during the growth phase you are lucky to get moderate growth (especially these days) or dividends, but it really depends on why you chose stocks. I chose stocks because when you average it all out, you'll generally make better returns if you have a somewhat diversified portfolio. In my case, the vast majority of my holdings are in AAPL, but that's only because I bought the stock pre-Jobs' return, when they were in the doldrums for a long time. I'm also not a day trader. Everything I have has been buy and hold. Quite a few of my riskier investments have gone bust, but averaging out all of my investments, I've done better than the average investor over my investing 'career' by buying when people were panicking and then basically never selling. ;)
    edited November 2016 monstrosityradster360
  • Reply 11 of 21
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,437member
    The USD is very high - highest in over ten+ years against a basket of currencies. That makes their products more expensive in almost every other market.  That is bound to affect demand - it has for me. An iPhone 7 starts at $899 CAD, vs $649 USD, or almost 40% more.  I will get an iPhone 7 soon, but I have held on to my old one for over 3 years. 
    cali
  • Reply 12 of 21
    brucemc said:
    The USD is very high - highest in over ten+ years against a basket of currencies. That makes their products more expensive in almost every other market.  That is bound to affect demand - it has for me. An iPhone 7 starts at $899 CAD, vs $649 USD, or almost 40% more.  I will get an iPhone 7 soon, but I have held on to my old one for over 3 years. 
    Yes, US monetary policy is insanely out of control thanks to the Fed's mandate by Congress. The Fed should not even exist, except it was created to circumvent our Constitution and the restriction against the creation of fiat currency by our government.
  • Reply 13 of 21
    sog35 said:
    This don't mean crap. 

    iPhone 7 is old news. Its all about the possible sales of iPhone 8.

    Actually the worse the 7 does the better the 8 will do in comparison.
    Well if that's the logic then I guess the iPhone 8 should suck too so the iPhone 9 does better in comparison.  Good grief.
  • Reply 14 of 21
    It would have been nice if Apple sold wireless earphones to go with their 3.5 mm jack-less phone. 

    Maybe that would help sales 
    brakkenslprescottcali
  • Reply 15 of 21
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,903member
    Here you go: 1 suply chain doesn't mean crap!
  • Reply 16 of 21
    June 29th 2007 was the date the first iPhone was released. Since iPhone 7 sales may continue to slide, I hope the company considers releasing the 7s, 7 Plus and OLED iPhone 8 in June rather than September. It would also honor the date of the original iPhone's release and make so many of us happier sooner rather than later.
  • Reply 17 of 21
    sog35 said:
    After two years riding the AAPL rollercoaster, I liquidated my holdings this week.  Of course I still love and use Apple products every day, and I'm having fun developing iOS apps.  But I've decided -- for ME -- it's much more enjoyable to be an Apple customer (and following) than an AAPL investor.  Just my opinion, of course.
    being an AAPL investor is not easy. It is a living hell.

    Once this thing hits $140 I'll sell half of mine and 80% at $150. I'll probably save the remaining 20% for a decade

    The manipulation of the AAPL stock is flatout criminal
    I so agree with you! I too am waiting for it to hit $140. Yep, the manipulation of AAPL has been crazy and criminal
    cali
  • Reply 18 of 21
    It may be an interesting ploy if Apple reduces stock and exhausts current models from inventory before next year's line-up, creating pent-up demand. This would also encourage a step forward to Apple's next standard, such as with Retina, Lightning, Siri, AirDrop, 64bit, Metal/Swift, TouchID, ApplePay, and now P3 screens. It would certainly and clearly reveal how much the market is interested in gorgeously designed tech.

    iPhone Pro with all wireless and new design with OLED with original iPhone cues.
    iPhone Plus with all the top shite
    iPhone Mini with a smaller screen

    iPad Biggest refresh P3 screen
    iPad Pro unchanged except for new BT/Wifi standards
    iPad Mini refresh/upgrade P3/Pencil/quad speaker

    AWatch SIII thinner
    AWatch SI better battery life

    I have a suspicion that the Mac Mini may not be dropped, but will be forgotten for a while. Intel has to find a new path for Moore's Law
    iMac will be updated in some minor way, I reckon.
  • Reply 19 of 21

    blastdoor said:
    It would have been nice if Apple sold wireless earphones to go with their 3.5 mm jack-less phone. 

    Maybe that would help sales 
    Ya - it's not as if Apple can't afford it.
    But then again, I hate the wired ear pods.  I have every single pair all still originally wrapped :D
  • Reply 20 of 21
    dysamoriadysamoria Posts: 1,818member
    "...endangering growth forecasts." Wait, give me a second to find my tiny violin and wet my eyes. 
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