Post-holiday iPhone sales fears 'overblown,' analyst says

Posted:
in iPhone
Contrary to some recent reports, one analyst firm believes that adverse market conditions for iPhone sales are being given too much weight and predicts better performance than previously expected buttressed by high demand for the iPhone 7 Plus.




Timothy Arcuri from Cowen & Company is sticking with previous estimates and predicting 50.5 million iPhone sales for Apple's second fiscal quarter of 2017. Additionally, the firm has revised its iPhone 7 numbers down by 500,000 units, and iPhone 7 Plus sales up 2 million, thereby increasing the average selling price of Apple's most important product.

Arcuri also predicts that the iPhone SE will see similar sales in the period as the 5s from 2016, with around 5 million units purchased by consumers.

Arcuri expects to see 76 million iPhone sales in the holiday quarter, effectively unchanged from previous estimates, and higher than most other predictions. Around 50 percent of sales are said to be of the iPhone 7, with 33 percent iPhone 7 Plus, and the SE in the "high single-digits" of million sales.

Most investment analysts believe that Apple will have a good quarter, with some predicting a record-breaking one, but at the expense of the post-holiday quarter.

Another factor proclaimed by analysts to potentially drag down Apple's second fiscal quarter of 2017 is the "supercycle" that may be induced by a combination of factors leading to pent-up demand for a 10-year anniversary "iPhone 8" in the fall.

Apple's rumored "iPhone 8" is said to feature next-generation technology like an OLED "wraparound" screen with Touch ID home button and other sensors embedded behind the glass. Recent rumblings out of Apple's East Asian supply chain suggest the device will ditch aluminum for forged stainless steel as part of a "glass sandwich" design reminiscent of the iPhone 4 series.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 13
    jbdragonjbdragon Posts: 1,994member
    I see what these analyst are doing. They want big Apple stick swings. That way they can sell high and buy low.
    mejsricdysamoriawatto_cobra
  • Reply 2 of 13
    mejsricmejsric Posts: 133member
    They are not analysts, they are manipulators.
    dysamoriacaliStrangeDaysnetmagejas99watto_cobra
  • Reply 3 of 13
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 2,970moderator
    "Most investment analysts believe that Apple will have a good quarter, with some predicting a record-breaking one..."

    I've been quiet.  Haven't mentioned this to tip off any analysts.  Just been waiting to see if there's any analyst out there who would pick up on it?  What's the nugget of information I've been holding back?  The Sep - Dec 2011 holiday season, Apple's 2012 fiscal first quarter, was a 14 week quarter for Apple; Apple ends each quarter on the last Saturday of each calendar quarter.  Shhh, don't tell the analysts, but, the Sep - Dec quarter just ended was another one.  It's the first 14-week holiday quarter for Apple since 2011.  And that adds about 8% to the length of the quarter versus other years, which have 13 weeks.  

    True Apple earnings devotees will recall that Apple earnings remained flat in its 13-week 2013 fiscal Q1 versus its 14-week 2012 fiscal Q1, and analysts derided the company as having reached the end of its growth.  Doomed.  But none would give voice to the fact that Apple matched its previous year Q1 earnings with a shorter holiday quarter.  We can expect the same, I'm certain, this year and next, when Apple surprises to the upside with this next quarterly report, only to disappoint expectations next year when they're back to a typical 13-week holiday quarter.  
    edited January 2017 nyctravisquadra 610anantksundaramDeelronanton zuykovdouglas baileymwhitefotoformatdysamoriajas99
  • Reply 4 of 13
    "Most investment analysts believe that Apple will have a good quarter, with some predicting a record-breaking one..."

    I've been quiet.  Haven't mentioned this to tip off any analysts.  Just been waiting to see if there's any analyst out there who would pick up on it?  What's the nugget of information I've been holding back?  The Sep - Dec 2011 holiday season, Apple's 2012 fiscal first quarter, was a 14 week quarter for Apple; Apple ends each quarter on the last Saturday of each calendar quarter.  Shhh, don't tell the analysts, but, the Sep - Dec quarter just ended was another one.  It's the first 14-week holiday quarter for Apple since 2011.  And that adds about 8% to the length of the quarter versus other years, which have 13 weeks.  

    True Apple earnings devotees will recall that Apple earnings remained flat in its 13-week 2013 fiscal Q1 versus its 14-week 2012 fiscal Q1, and analysts derided the company as having reached the end of its growth.  Doomed.  But none would give voice to the fact that Apple matched its previous year Q1 earnings with a shorter holiday quarter.  We can expect the same, I'm certain, this year and next, when Apple surprises to the upside with this next quarterly report, only to disappoint expectations next year when they're back to a typical 13-week holiday quarter.  
    I haven't seen one analyst mention this in any of their reports. Probably because it makes sense.
    nyctravisanantksundaramSpamSandwichDeelronanton zuykovdouglas baileydysamoriacalijas99jony0
  • Reply 5 of 13
    quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,743member
    "Most investment analysts believe that Apple will have a good quarter, with some predicting a record-breaking one..."

    I've been quiet.  Haven't mentioned this to tip off any analysts.  Just been waiting to see if there's any analyst out there who would pick up on it?  What's the nugget of information I've been holding back?  The Sep - Dec 2011 holiday season, Apple's 2012 fiscal first quarter, was a 14 week quarter for Apple; Apple ends each quarter on the last Saturday of each calendar quarter.  Shhh, don't tell the analysts, but, the Sep - Dec quarter just ended was another one.  It's the first 14-week holiday quarter for Apple since 2011.  And that adds about 8% to the length of the quarter versus other years, which have 13 weeks.  

    True Apple earnings devotees will recall that Apple earnings remained flat in its 13-week 2013 fiscal Q1 versus its 14-week 2012 fiscal Q1, and analysts derided the company as having reached the end of its growth.  Doomed.  But none would give voice to the fact that Apple matched its previous year Q1 earnings with a shorter holiday quarter.  We can expect the same, I'm certain, this year and next, when Apple surprises to the upside with this next quarterly report, only to disappoint expectations next year when they're back to a typical 13-week holiday quarter.  

    Thank you.   :)
    jas99
  • Reply 6 of 13
    Analysts who claim the next iPhone will be a smartphone unicorn, and analysts who then claim customers are waiting for the same instead of buying the existing model. They then coin the term "supercycle" to make it sound like a thing.
    SpamSandwichradarthekatStrangeDayswatto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 13
    Apple will announce its FY17 First Quarter results on Jan 31st at 2pm PT / 5pm ET
    http://investor.apple.com

  • Reply 8 of 13
    Whenever these people spout forth, just remember where they are speaking from.
    The clue is in the first 4 letters of their job title.

    They pronounce boom and doom yet the world does not stop turning now does it?

    radarthekatwatto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 13
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 4,196administrator
    "Most investment analysts believe that Apple will have a good quarter, with some predicting a record-breaking one..."

    I've been quiet.  Haven't mentioned this to tip off any analysts.  Just been waiting to see if there's any analyst out there who would pick up on it?  What's the nugget of information I've been holding back?  The Sep - Dec 2011 holiday season, Apple's 2012 fiscal first quarter, was a 14 week quarter for Apple; Apple ends each quarter on the last Saturday of each calendar quarter.  Shhh, don't tell the analysts, but, the Sep - Dec quarter just ended was another one.  It's the first 14-week holiday quarter for Apple since 2011.  And that adds about 8% to the length of the quarter versus other years, which have 13 weeks.  

    True Apple earnings devotees will recall that Apple earnings remained flat in its 13-week 2013 fiscal Q1 versus its 14-week 2012 fiscal Q1, and analysts derided the company as having reached the end of its growth.  Doomed.  But none would give voice to the fact that Apple matched its previous year Q1 earnings with a shorter holiday quarter.  We can expect the same, I'm certain, this year and next, when Apple surprises to the upside with this next quarterly report, only to disappoint expectations next year when they're back to a typical 13-week holiday quarter.  
    Cook and company mentioned that in the the last two quarterly reports. We'll see how it goes.

    Apple is in no danger, regardless of how many, or how few iPhones they sell relative to the last model.
    jas99watto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 13
    mike1mike1 Posts: 1,820member
    "Most investment analysts believe that Apple will have a good quarter, with some predicting a record-breaking one..."

    I've been quiet.  Haven't mentioned this to tip off any analysts.  Just been waiting to see if there's any analyst out there who would pick up on it?  What's the nugget of information I've been holding back?  The Sep - Dec 2011 holiday season, Apple's 2012 fiscal first quarter, was a 14 week quarter for Apple; Apple ends each quarter on the last Saturday of each calendar quarter.  Shhh, don't tell the analysts, but, the Sep - Dec quarter just ended was another one.  It's the first 14-week holiday quarter for Apple since 2011.  And that adds about 8% to the length of the quarter versus other years, which have 13 weeks.  

    True Apple earnings devotees will recall that Apple earnings remained flat in its 13-week 2013 fiscal Q1 versus its 14-week 2012 fiscal Q1, and analysts derided the company as having reached the end of its growth.  Doomed.  But none would give voice to the fact that Apple matched its previous year Q1 earnings with a shorter holiday quarter.  We can expect the same, I'm certain, this year and next, when Apple surprises to the upside with this next quarterly report, only to disappoint expectations next year when they're back to a typical 13-week holiday quarter.  
    You really need to stop with the facts. It messes up the narrative they are trying to push.
    radarthekatjas99watto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 13
    "Most investment analysts believe that Apple will have a good quarter, with some predicting a record-breaking one..."

    I've been quiet.  Haven't mentioned this to tip off any analysts.  Just been waiting to see if there's any analyst out there who would pick up on it?  What's the nugget of information I've been holding back?  The Sep - Dec 2011 holiday season, Apple's 2012 fiscal first quarter, was a 14 week quarter for Apple; Apple ends each quarter on the last Saturday of each calendar quarter.  Shhh, don't tell the analysts, but, the Sep - Dec quarter just ended was another one.  It's the first 14-week holiday quarter for Apple since 2011.  And that adds about 8% to the length of the quarter versus other years, which have 13 weeks.  

    True Apple earnings devotees will recall that Apple earnings remained flat in its 13-week 2013 fiscal Q1 versus its 14-week 2012 fiscal Q1, and analysts derided the company as having reached the end of its growth.  Doomed.  But none would give voice to the fact that Apple matched its previous year Q1 earnings with a shorter holiday quarter.  We can expect the same, I'm certain, this year and next, when Apple surprises to the upside with this next quarterly report, only to disappoint expectations next year when they're back to a typical 13-week holiday quarter.  
    Cook and company mentioned that in the the last two quarterly reports. We'll see how it goes.

    Apple is in no danger, regardless of how many, or how few iPhones they sell relative to the last model.
    So sales are not "dismal" as written in a previous article? So confused. How can iPhone both be successful and yet experience "dismal" sales?

    Personally, I don't think iPhone sales are "dismal" at all, regardless of declining revenue. As long as it's a successful product and sucking down all the profit in the space, I think it's a success that is responsible for an amazing amount of revenue that dwarfs other entire companies.
    edited January 2017 radarthekatjas99watto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 13
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    The so called super cycle just got coined yesterday and it's already been touted liked a putrid sack of crap by so called analysts
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 13 of 13
    Well the 'anal-ysts' don't care anything that does not support their overdue 'Apple is Doom' narrative, whether is 1 week longer or 1 week shorter. When Apple announced positive results, they would say the next one would be horrible. When Apple announced less than positive results, they would say Apple is a dead company. d-e-a-d.
    watto_cobra
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