Analyst sees 'iPhone 8' super cycle falling just short of 2016 iPhone 6 sales heights
One analyst firm has broken from the pack, and is cautioning investors that it fears that the "iPhone 8" so-called "supercycle" may be overblown, and that the sales for fiscal year 2018 will fall just short of those lofty heights.

In an analyst note penned by Deutsche Bank, and seen by Business Insider, the factors that led up to the 2015 iPhone 6 and 6 Plus release was the "real super cycle." Factors cited in that release year that "will not repeat" including Apple's adoption of larger screens in the iPhone, and the addition of China Mobile.
Deutsche Bank also believes that given the lack of carrier subsidies in 2017, that people are now holding on to phones longer, with the average refresh cycle claimed to be 2.7 years at present.
Another point of pressure acting against a super cycle is a possible price hike on the iPhone 7S family, with the iPhone 8 likely retailing for well more than $1000. The analysts believe that this will have a net negative effect on demand.
"Generally, when prices go up, demand goes down," says Deutsche Bank. "A scenario where prices go up and demand goes up seems highly unlikely in our view."
Wall Street is modeling shipments at 244 million units for fiscal year 2018. Deutsche Bank sees about 230 million total units in the fiscal year starting in October 2017 -- just short of the 231 million in fiscal year 2015 with the iPhone 6.

Source: Deutsche Bank
The "iPhone 8" is predicted to sport an edge-to-edge OLED panel with a 5.1-inch user space -- the rest dedicated to virtual buttons. Slimming or removing the bezels would allow Apple to cram a larger battery into a form factor similar in size to the 4.7-inch iPhone 7. Also expected is a new 3D facial scanner .
With a complete redesign, plus the inclusion of a 2.5D curved glass back with wireless charging, some reports have pegged the starting price of the "iPhone 8" at more than $1,000, and others as much as $1,200.

In an analyst note penned by Deutsche Bank, and seen by Business Insider, the factors that led up to the 2015 iPhone 6 and 6 Plus release was the "real super cycle." Factors cited in that release year that "will not repeat" including Apple's adoption of larger screens in the iPhone, and the addition of China Mobile.
Deutsche Bank also believes that given the lack of carrier subsidies in 2017, that people are now holding on to phones longer, with the average refresh cycle claimed to be 2.7 years at present.
Another point of pressure acting against a super cycle is a possible price hike on the iPhone 7S family, with the iPhone 8 likely retailing for well more than $1000. The analysts believe that this will have a net negative effect on demand.
"Generally, when prices go up, demand goes down," says Deutsche Bank. "A scenario where prices go up and demand goes up seems highly unlikely in our view."
Wall Street is modeling shipments at 244 million units for fiscal year 2018. Deutsche Bank sees about 230 million total units in the fiscal year starting in October 2017 -- just short of the 231 million in fiscal year 2015 with the iPhone 6.

Source: Deutsche Bank
The "iPhone 8" is predicted to sport an edge-to-edge OLED panel with a 5.1-inch user space -- the rest dedicated to virtual buttons. Slimming or removing the bezels would allow Apple to cram a larger battery into a form factor similar in size to the 4.7-inch iPhone 7. Also expected is a new 3D facial scanner .
With a complete redesign, plus the inclusion of a 2.5D curved glass back with wireless charging, some reports have pegged the starting price of the "iPhone 8" at more than $1,000, and others as much as $1,200.
Comments
https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Apples+(AAPL)+Price+Target+Reduced+to+$105+from+$125+at+Deutsche+Bank/11208950.html
Just short - subliminal messages?
The analyst's claims are common sense and no doubt the 'sell' will be harder this time around as the competition has pulled its socks up across the board and there are a lot of tempting higher end phones at great prices on the market but brand loyalty will play a role in Apple's favour.
An iPhone user that doesn't upgrade today isn't a problem as the sale will come a little later. An iPhone user that upgrades to Android on the other hand, obviously is an issue if the numbers are big enough but Apple has time and options to counter that by reducing prices. That's mainly why I switched and I suppose it's the prime reason for most iPhone to Android switchers.
Revenue has continued to grow as average selling price has increased. With the rumored $1,000+ price tag of the iPhone 8 I have no doubt ASP will increase in 2018 too, but Apple can't rely on increases in ASP to drive revenue growth very long. A $1,000+ device that is essentially the same hardware as a $700 Galaxy S8 won't be competitive once the early-adopters make a run on the first 20 million units. Unfortunately, what that will do is result in negative revenue growth in the following year as Apple reduces prices to maintain competitiveness. The double whammy of no unit growth in one year followed by revenue retrenchment shortly thereafter will be a short-term killer of Apple's stock price.
While it is true another 230 million unit year is a great year, Apple's stock price is based on much more. Even at zero growth Apple is a great company and will generate profits for shareholders for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately there will be a period of adjustment where the stock price has to take into account the stagnation of revenue growth and the stockholders can easily face a couple of years of bear market territory before it settles down to the new normal.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.androidauthority.com/samsung-refutes-reports-lackluster-galaxy-s8-sales-786591/amp/
Which would you prefer to have started ten years ago; a coffee shop that grows fast to a high level of profits in a few short years and then levels off at that high level of profits? Or a coffee shop that grows steadily but took all ten years to eventually reach the same high level of profits? The first coffee shop would have cumulatively made much more profit over the ten-year period. That's Apple. Wall St is stupid. There, I said it.
The question, of course being, why? Why does Apple stock have to take that hit? What you describe regarding growth is descriptive of the global softdrink market. KO revenues and profits have shrunk in the face of a saturated softdrink market the past couple years. Go look at its multiple. It's 31x. So the question is, why?
Analysis of analysts' analysis predicts analysts failing to analyse analysts' analysis analytically.
Seriously, how do I get a job as an analyst. Say what you want with no consequences when you're wrong? Sign me up!
You have a short memory. Apple has faced accusations of misdoings, law violations and labor abuses all over the world. They have settled charges and paid some huge fines which would seem to indicate it's not all BS.
You have no idea whatsoever regarding DB's financial health and prospects. You googled and found a bunch of links you posted. BFD. Aren't you just wonderful and a world class analyst!
The ignorance in your post is more overwhelming than your childishness. You are having a three-year old's tantrum because you vehemently disagree with a analyst. It really shows you to your highest advantage. Grow up and stop acting like preschooler.
"Another point of pressure acting against a super cycle is a possible price hike on the iPhone 7S family, with the iPhone 8 likely retailing for well more than $1000. The analysts believe that this will have a net negative effect on demand."
They're not getting all the fancy new tech...
I find it curious that such a "capable" analyst would warn investors on mere speculation, providing no proof. What if Apple did release a $1200 phone and it was worth every penny and then some.....
I think Apple knows what they're doing with a 10 year old project and has the data to back any decision. I have faith in Apple and will show it with my hard earned theoretical $1200 iPhone Pro purchase.
German ramblings:
Just bought my Audi Q7, what the hell is with the cup holders? Only the smallest bottled water fits in it.