'iPhone 8' will still ship in Sept., JP Morgan says, but Apple's supply will be tightly co...

Posted:
in Future Apple Hardware
Straying from the pack a bit, one analyst believes that the "iPhone 8" will ship before the end of September, but in profoundly limited quantities, but the largest measure of Apple's profits from the device will accrue throughout the calendar year.




In an investor's note seen by AppleInsider, Rod Hall from J.P. Morgan continues to support the concept of a "super cycle" after the "iPhone 7s" family and "iPhone 8" launch. However, because of possible OLED screen issues related to Touch ID, launch quantities will likely be constrained.

Original J.P. Morgan estimates pinned 9 million "iPhone 8" units available for launch and for sale before the end of September. Hall believes that the actual number is now closer to 2 million because of unspecified production problems, and has shifted quarterly unit forecasts accordingly.

In the short term, the relative lack of unavailability at launch and in the early days of the fiscal quarter ending in September will have a temporary effect on average selling price. Hall believes that the average selling price will not hit the peak of $681 as they predicted, but will be around $629.

The holiday quarter, Apple's first quarter in the 2018 fiscal year, is another matter. Hall believes that the average selling price through fiscal year 2018 will dramatically climb to $759 from a previous guess of $717.

Other than just a holiday quarter shift, other changes in estimate reasoning surrounding increased iPhone demand have grown fiscal year 2018's predictions by the firm upwards by $17 billion over previous estimates, at the cost of a decrease of $7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2017.

It is not clear if Hall's data about lower initial production volumes of the "iPhone 8" is independently sourced, or gleaned from other published reports. Also not clear is how the estimated two million compares to the low quantities shipped of the iPhone 7 Plus at launch.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 19
    saareksaarek Posts: 1,054member
    What's new, any product that is newly released by Apple tends to be in short supply for a few weeks.

    Avieshekcalianton zuykov
  • Reply 2 of 19
    anomeanome Posts: 1,113member
    At this point, if there is an iPhone 8 or “X” or anything other than the 7S and 7S+, I’m going to be really disappointed. I really want all the pundits going on about it to be wrong.

    Of course, they’ll never admit they were wrong. It will be Apple not being able to resolve issues, not that it was never going to happen in the first place.
  • Reply 3 of 19
    wood1208wood1208 Posts: 1,554member
    I have suggestion for Apple. Apple can create fake company and let them sell half of initial supply of iPhone 8 on Ebay for few months at twice the suggested retail price. This way, gray/black market don't get to sell them for more.
  • Reply 4 of 19
    AvieshekAvieshek Posts: 99member
    We can help Apple, not buy a single iPhone this year.
    leavingthebigg
  • Reply 5 of 19
    smaffeismaffei Posts: 200member
    Avieshek said:
    We can help Apple, not buy a single iPhone this year.
    The "tough love" approach?!?
  • Reply 6 of 19
    These analysts seem to completely forget year-to-year. iPhone is always in tight supply at launch, especially the most sought after model. Yes, a few thousand iPhone 8 will be delivered to pre-orders on launch day. A few thousand the next day...ramping up for 2 months before they can even fill 3 AM pre-orders. Same as last year. Nothing new here.
  • Reply 7 of 19
    calicali Posts: 3,495member
    Why are companies who aren't Apple announcing the next iPhone and launch date?

    wood1208 said:
    I have suggestion for Apple. Apple can create fake company and let them sell half of initial supply of iPhone 8 on Ebay for few months at twice the suggested retail price. This way, gray/black market don't get to sell them for more.

    Great idea. Problem is SUPPLY is actually short. There's not infinite iPhones available at launch. Also this would piss off the customer if they found out half the supply went to an Apple eBay company. 
  • Reply 8 of 19
    NY1822NY1822 Posts: 518member
    Apple should include a perk in their Apple Care and deliver to those purchasing Apple Care before those who choose not to. A VIP type service would drive Apple Care sales. Maybe have online sales only for Apple Care members for the first 10 hours...maybe they give you a code to log in. The website crashing and clogged server is so 2015....this would be a way to maintain some organization 
    edited July 2017
  • Reply 9 of 19
    78Bandit78Bandit Posts: 189member
    I'll call BS on this one.  If yields on certain parts are so low that only 2M phones will be available at launch that means a massive amount of rejected parts.  Production methods aren't going to change drastically in only a few weeks so any increase in production after launch is going to be due to quality improvements.  If problems are that prevalent it would be a huge risk for Apple to include parts that would likely pass initial QC but would fail later.  If even 5% of that number fails Apple's reputation would be toast.

    Apple isn't going to start production until yields are reliable enough to sustain the full assembly line.  A yield-limited launch would hurt more than it helps.
  • Reply 10 of 19
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 12,555member
    anome said:
    At this point, if there is an iPhone 8 or “X” or anything other than the 7S and 7S+, I’m going to be really disappointed. I really want all the pundits going on about it to be wrong.

    Of course, they’ll never admit they were wrong. It will be Apple not being able to resolve issues, not that it was never going to happen in the first place.
    Why the negativity?    This is a "RUMORS" site so you kinda have to expect the tAI will report on you know rumors.     

    As for the resistance to iPhone Pro, lets wait and see exactly what they have to deliver here.    There are a couple of ways in which a "Pro" iPhone could be worth every penny and frankly even more ways that it will be worthless to many.    If Apple has plans (a big if) for a phone beyond the 7S and 7S+ they must have a rational for the product.    I'm betting on features that we might not have imagined yet.
  • Reply 11 of 19
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 3,222member
    I’m still trying to understand the point of a $1000+ starting price iPhone. If it’s just about raising ASP’s I think it’s a bad idea. But Apple replaced Air with Pro on the 9.7” iPad and raised the price so I suppose it’s possible they could call it an iPhone Pro and raise the price. Unless they’re going to pull an Apple Watch and sell an expensive phone where the only difference is the materials the chassis is made out of?
  • Reply 12 of 19
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 5,587member
    According to Gruber it’s all about being able to deliver higher end components that they simply cannot scale up to the insane number of units of the current iphone. higher price, smaller market...same with almost any non-commodity good, you can go high end and niche. 
  • Reply 13 of 19
    NY1822NY1822 Posts: 518member
    Apple should have higher priced models as the standard now. They should also offer a limited edition IPhone and number them...1 of 5,000, etc.....and charge minimum of $10,000 (boom! $50Million vs $3.75Million) as collectors edition....they would be gobbled up by youtubers in a second....time to increase that ASP for shareholders
    edited July 2017
  • Reply 14 of 19
    78Bandit said:
    I'll call BS on this one.  If yields on certain parts are so low that only 2M phones will be available at launch that means a massive amount of rejected parts.  Production methods aren't going to change drastically in only a few weeks so any increase in production after launch is going to be due to quality improvements.  If problems are that prevalent it would be a huge risk for Apple to include parts that would likely pass initial QC but would fail later.  If even 5% of that number fails Apple's reputation would be toast.

    Apple isn't going to start production until yields are reliable enough to sustain the full assembly line.  A yield-limited launch would hurt more than it helps.
    Wouldn't it be great if WS had an original script when writing about Apple/iPhone? I'm getting tired of these Hollywood like sequels. The first sequel is seldom as good as the original, and each sequel thereafter gets worse.
  • Reply 15 of 19
    anome said:
    At this point, if there is an iPhone 8 or “X” or anything other than the 7S and 7S+, I’m going to be really disappointed. I really want all the pundits going on about it to be wrong.

    Of course, they’ll never admit they were wrong. It will be Apple not being able to resolve issues, not that it was never going to happen in the first place.
    I think, at least some of those "pundits" are doing it because they want to set unreasonable expectations for Apple. So that, when Apple finally rolls out new products, it could create enough of pressure for a bit of a dip in the stock price. Then they can buy it, cheaper and wait for a good Q report to sell it.
    Idk, just my guess..
    anome
  • Reply 16 of 19
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 12,555member
    I’m still trying to understand the point of a $1000+ starting price iPhone. If it’s just about raising ASP’s I think it’s a bad idea. But Apple replaced Air with Pro on the 9.7” iPad and raised the price so I suppose it’s possible they could call it an iPhone Pro and raise the price. Unless they’re going to pull an Apple Watch and sell an expensive phone where the only difference is the materials the chassis is made out of?
    Depends on what you get for that $1000.   If it can act as a desktop/laptop when needed that would be a massive leap forward.   There are other possibilities but if Apple does indeed offer a high priced iPhone it will likely have bleeding edge innovation.
  • Reply 17 of 19
    anomeanome Posts: 1,113member
    wizard69 said:
    anome said:
    At this point, if there is an iPhone 8 or “X” or anything other than the 7S and 7S+, I’m going to be really disappointed. I really want all the pundits going on about it to be wrong.

    Of course, they’ll never admit they were wrong. It will be Apple not being able to resolve issues, not that it was never going to happen in the first place.
    Why the negativity?    This is a "RUMORS" site so you kinda have to expect the tAI will report on you know rumors.     

    As for the resistance to iPhone Pro, lets wait and see exactly what they have to deliver here.    There are a couple of ways in which a "Pro" iPhone could be worth every penny and frankly even more ways that it will be worthless to many.    If Apple has plans (a big if) for a phone beyond the 7S and 7S+ they must have a rational for the product.    I'm betting on features that we might not have imagined yet.

    Why the negativity? Someone beat me to it.

    I think, at least some of those "pundits" are doing it because they want to set unreasonable expectations for Apple. So that, when Apple finally rolls out new products, it could create enough of pressure for a bit of a dip in the stock price. Then they can buy it, cheaper and wait for a good Q report to sell it.
    Idk, just my guess..

    It's all well and good if the rumours were just rumours, but people are treating any news of delays to an unannounced product as deadly serious, and using that to push the usual "Apple is DOO0M3D!!1!" narrative. And it's a narrative they can't fail at, because if there never was an iPhone "Pro" or "X" or whatever coming, they'll just say that something went wrong, and Apple couldn't deliver it, and then we're back at "Apple is DOO0M3D!!1!".

    And another strand is that I really just want Apple to do something no-one is expecting. Life is so boring when you know how it's going to turn out.

    Don't get me wrong, speculation is fun, but you need to remember it is just speculation. Nothing is certain until there's an official announcement. A lot of this speculation is treated as established fact, and that's my problem.


  • Reply 18 of 19
    These analysts seem to completely forget year-to-year. iPhone is always in tight supply at launch, especially the most sought after model. Yes, a few thousand iPhone 8 will be delivered to pre-orders on launch day. A few thousand the next day...ramping up for 2 months before they can even fill 3 AM pre-orders. Same as last year. Nothing new here.
    Wall Street seems to focus on quarter over quarter instead of year over year. It's those quarterly jumps that seem to get the greedy big investors excited. They don't like to wait an entire year to see huge share gains. I think Apple's hardware business basically has to be spread over the entire year. I think it's better for a business be run that way overall, but the greedy investors have little patience. Ramping up production on hardware takes time. I don't know why analysts don't understand such a simple thing. Most likely because they've never worked on a production line. Every part has to be in order to run a full production line. Just one missing or faulty part stops a production line.

     I'm puzzled as to why Wall Street sees any delay as a major disaster. I honestly have never heard Apple give a specific launch date for the iPhone so I don't know how analysts can say there's a delay. A delay based on what date? An iPhone launch is almost an unprecedented event by most unit sales standards, so why is Wall Street always displeased with Apple. A high-end smartphone is a rather complicated device.
    edited July 2017
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