Personally I can't see a really good reason for Apple to actually develop a car. To what end?
They make far more profit with consumer and pro-grade electronics and computing. Ain't no way in Hades that they can realize a 30+ margin on a car all things considered. Tooling, patent royalty payments, on-going component support for several years after last sale, maintenance facilities, warranty issues, distinct (and IMO almost certain at some point) possibilities of high-profile, headline-grabbing, legally-mandated recalls that damage Apple's brand, and toss in liabilities and lawsuits over injuries and possibly deaths. Other than "hey me too" why would they continue to pursue a product in a market where no profits at all are possible and with so many downsides?
Personally I think Apple's management has realized that building a car in the foreseeable future doesn't make sense for Apple as a company. Nice thought and well worth investigating since even if a car is never built the learning Apple gained from putting some effort into it can pay dividends in other areas like AR, mapping, robotics, display technologies, etc., but I believe Apple producing a car of their own is more problematic than practical as things stand. Even the traditional automakers who have been working towards this for years and years are struggling with where the profits will come from with future transportation, and how autonomy will fit in actual practice. At some point everyone will have to be if not on the exact same page at least in the same chapter for all of this to work. It is not a space where Apple will be able to dictate terms.
IMHO Apple will not be building their own car from the ground up.
You need to stick to watching Google, my friend. You clearly haven't been watching Apple.
So... ?
You've not explained why you think they're definitely building their own complete car from the ground up. I explained why I think they're not and the reasoning behind it. Don't take the easy way out with some vague comment that anyone could make without thought. So again, to what end?
I'll bite on that. They MIGHT DESIGN and even make a vehicle from the ground up if they decide they can come up with a better product than other companies are making, just like they've always been motivated to do.
Judging from the pure obnoxiousness of current car design generally, I'm guessing that Ive and Newsome et al. are itching to "do" a car, but as others and maybe Mansfield have said, it's best to wait till the software nut is cracked first, then see what the design environment is at that time, which could be years away.
Personally I can't see a really good reason for Apple to actually develop a car. To what end?
They make far more profit with consumer and pro-grade electronics and computing. Ain't no way in Hades that they can realize a 30+ margin on a car all things considered. Tooling, patent royalty payments, on-going component support for several years after last sale, maintenance facilities, warranty issues, distinct (and IMO almost certain at some point) possibilities of high-profile, headline-grabbing, legally-mandated recalls that damage Apple's brand, and toss in liabilities and lawsuits over injuries and possibly deaths. Other than "hey me too" why would they continue to pursue a product in a market where no profits at all are possible and with so many downsides?
Personally I think Apple's management has realized that building a car in the foreseeable future doesn't make sense for Apple as a company. Nice thought and well worth investigating since even if a car is never built the learning Apple gained from putting some effort into it can pay dividends in other areas like AR, mapping, robotics, display technologies, etc., but I believe Apple producing a car of their own is more problematic than practical as things stand. Even the traditional automakers who have been working towards this for years and years are struggling with where the profits will come from with future transportation, and how autonomy will fit in actual practice. At some point everyone will have to be if not on the exact same page at least in the same chapter for all of this to work. It is not a space where Apple will be able to dictate terms.
IMHO Apple will not be building their own car from the ground up.
You need to stick to watching Google, my friend. You clearly haven't been watching Apple.
So... ?
You've not explained why you think they're definitely building their own complete car from the ground up. I explained why I think they're not and the reasoning behind it. Don't take the easy way out with some vague comment that anyone could make without thought. So again, to what end?
I'll bite on that. They MIGHT DESIGN and even make a vehicle from the ground up if they decide they can come up with a better product than other companies are making, just like they've always been motivated to do.
Judging from the pure obnoxiousness of current car design generally, I'm guessing that Ive and Newsome et al. are itching to "do" a car, but as others and maybe Mansfield have said, it's best to wait till the software nut is cracked first, then see what the design environment is at that time, which could be years away.
Where do the most profitable per unit sale automobile reside in the market? I'd guess around the $50–120K range, but I don't know. If they make their own car wouldn't a high value, low volume option—like the Apple Watch—be their best bet for a multitude of reasons? Trying to jump into Rolls Royce or the Prius market doesn't seem like a great plan, but starting where Tesla did—or even higher—would make a lot of sense.
But this market is also very different than anything else they've done so I can see them having to increase unit sale of their IP and possibly their HW by creating a way for every other automobile manufacturer to use their tech, not unlike how Apple caused the iPod to explode by releasing iTunes for Windows (which Steve was reluctant to do).
The bottom line is what is the best way to generate the most money for Apple, and that depends on factors we will never know.
Personally I can't see a really good reason for Apple to actually develop a car. To what end?
They make far more profit with consumer and pro-grade electronics and computing. Ain't no way in Hades that they can realize a 30+ margin on a car all things considered. Tooling, patent royalty payments, on-going component support for several years after last sale, maintenance facilities, warranty issues, distinct (and IMO almost certain at some point) possibilities of high-profile, headline-grabbing, legally-mandated recalls that damage Apple's brand, and toss in liabilities and lawsuits over injuries and possibly deaths. Other than "hey me too" why would they continue to pursue a product in a market where no profits at all are possible and with so many downsides?
Personally I think Apple's management has realized that building a car in the foreseeable future doesn't make sense for Apple as a company. Nice thought and well worth investigating since even if a car is never built the learning Apple gained from putting some effort into it can pay dividends in other areas like AR, mapping, robotics, display technologies, etc., but I believe Apple producing a car of their own is more problematic than practical as things stand. Even the traditional automakers who have been working towards this for years and years are struggling with where the profits will come from with future transportation, and how autonomy will fit in actual practice. At some point everyone will have to be if not on the exact same page at least in the same chapter for all of this to work. It is not a space where Apple will be able to dictate terms.
IMHO Apple will not be building their own car from the ground up.
You need to stick to watching Google, my friend. You clearly haven't been watching Apple.
So... ?
You've not explained why you think they're definitely building their own complete car from the ground up. I explained why I think they're not and the reasoning behind it. Don't take the easy way out with some vague comment that anyone could make without thought. So again, to what end?
I'll bite on that. They MIGHT DESIGN and even make a vehicle from the ground up if they decide they can come up with a better product than other companies are making, just like they've always been motivated to do.
Judging from the pure obnoxiousness of current car design generally, I'm guessing that Ive and Newsome et al. are itching to "do" a car, but as others and maybe Mansfield have said, it's best to wait till the software nut is cracked first, then see what the design environment is at that time, which could be years away.
i'd tend to agree with you that with several "if's" someday answered positively that there might come a time in Apple's future that a consumer car makes economic sense for them. But there's a buncha "ifs" even I can come up with off the top of my head.
If they can create a vehicle substantially better than the car companies can, and IF the public likes what they see and agrees, and IF the software works as intended 99.9% of the time and in all situations, and IF the liability issue is dealt with via legislation or thru the insurance industry, and IF consumers like both the idea of not driving and feel safe relinquishing control themselves, and IF the government in concert with the industry can agree on how best to integrate dozens or hundreds of various autonomous vehicle models with different control systems and hardware and capabilities into the same pool of vehicles on the road but needing to reliably communicate with and react to each other, and IF once all that is answered Apple decides enough profit is assured to make it worth the time and risks then they MIGHT build a car... IF they haven't moved on to something with less risk and better profits. There's probably a lot of other IF's I've not even considered.
So I'll stick to my opinion that anyone holding off on replacing their current vehicle with an "Apple Car" is going to be really disappointed. There is no Apple-designed and Apple-built car coming in the foreseeable future IMHO.
Apple's decision to prototype using a shuttle is brilliant. This model eliminates some of the thornier issues. Most importantly, the route is the same every time, no improvisation. Second, shuttles can be easily identified as such by other drivers as such and given wider berth. This closed loop approach enables Apple to work out the basics--small bite of the steak as mentioned earlier. It may be that busses and shuttles are the best application of this technology for some time until streets and highways are optimized for this kind of vehicle.
Personally I can't see a really good reason for Apple to actually develop a car. To what end?
They make far more profit with consumer and pro-grade electronics and computing. Ain't no way in Hades that they can realize a 30+ margin on a car all things considered. Tooling, patent royalty payments, on-going component support for several years after last sale, maintenance facilities, warranty issues, distinct (and IMO almost certain at some point) possibilities of high-profile, headline-grabbing, legally-mandated recalls that damage Apple's brand, and toss in liabilities and lawsuits over injuries and possibly deaths. Other than "hey me too" why would they continue to pursue a product in a market where no profits at all are possible and with so many downsides?
Personally I think Apple's management has realized that building a car in the foreseeable future doesn't make sense for Apple as a company. Nice thought and well worth investigating since even if a car is never built the learning Apple gained from putting some effort into it can pay dividends in other areas like AR, mapping, robotics, display technologies, etc., but I believe Apple producing a car of their own is more problematic than practical as things stand. Even the traditional automakers who have been working towards this for years and years are struggling with where the profits will come from with future transportation, and how autonomy will fit in actual practice. At some point everyone will have to be if not on the exact same page at least in the same chapter for all of this to work. It is not a space where Apple will be able to dictate terms.
IMHO Apple will not be building their own car from the ground up.
You need to stick to watching Google, my friend. You clearly haven't been watching Apple.
So... ?
You've not explained why you think they're definitely building their own complete car from the ground up. I explained why I think they're not and the reasoning behind it. Don't take the easy way out with some vague comment that anyone could make without thought. So again, to what end?
If ever you and I were on the same page, this would be it.
Personal transport is going through a huge transformation right now. Future car will be a 90/10 split between a comfortable seating pod with lots of entertainment and a tiny power train that you hardly notice. Software for engine management, navigation, and infotainment will be what differentiates brands. Think super lux pods in first class sections of airplanes. Would love to sleep my way to and from Vegas. Apple will be part of this.
I wonder if the majority of people simply stop buying cars. The convenience of tapping an app and getting a driverless car to collect you and drive you to your destination, without any of the maintenance and ownership concerns that come with owning a vehicle may prove too tempting to most. Especially if these car pods become quite paired down and mechanically simply. So regular people rather than opting for the best entertainment may opt for some cheaper solutions, while being advertised to and getting privacy raped: electrification, autonomy, ride hailing — as Tim has said, and Elon is doing.
The essence of your argument is correct; there will be alternatives to ownership, and those vehicles design for shared use will have a different build and configuration than those designed for personal ownership. Overall, automaking is a declining market with too much production capacity.
As for Elon, hat tip to a guy that can create the buzz to sell EV's, but Tesla is firmly in the set of automakers not now making profits, nor likely to in the future. Tesla is no disruption in the industry. Automaking would be best described as a twilight industry that once was the driver of national economies, from manufacturing, to resource extraction, to retailing and service.
Personal transport is going through a huge transformation right now. Future car will be a 90/10 split between a comfortable seating pod with lots of entertainment and a tiny power train that you hardly notice. Software for engine management, navigation, and infotainment will be what differentiates brands. Think super lux pods in first class sections of airplanes. Would love to sleep my way to and from Vegas. Apple will be part of this.
I wonder if the majority of people simply stop buying cars. The convenience of tapping an app and getting a driverless car to collect you and drive you to your destination, without any of the maintenance and ownership concerns that come with owning a vehicle may prove too tempting to most. Especially if these car pods become quite paired down and mechanically simply. So regular people rather than opting for the best entertainment may opt for some cheaper solutions, while being advertised to and getting privacy raped: electrification, autonomy, ride hailing — as Tim has said, and Elon is doing.
What part of that ("So regular people rather than opting for the best entertainment may opt for some cheaper solutions, while being advertised to and getting privacy raped: electrification, autonomy, ride hailing") are you attributing to Tim?
I do see a big culture shift with the younger generations. I personally greatly prefer having a car in the driveway to calling some stranger to drive me around, but I have 2 teenagers of driving age who have actively resisted learning how to drive and have no great affinity for personal transportation. And they aren't unusual among their friends. First off, they get together in person MUCH less than I did with my friends when I was their age (reducing the need for transportation). Secondly, they are much more willing to let someone else do the driving. So as hard as it is for me to believe, I do see the beginning of the end of the "2 cars in every garage."
Personal transport is going through a huge transformation right now. Future car will be a 90/10 split between a comfortable seating pod with lots of entertainment and a tiny power train that you hardly notice. Software for engine management, navigation, and infotainment will be what differentiates brands. Think super lux pods in first class sections of airplanes. Would love to sleep my way to and from Vegas. Apple will be part of this.
I wonder if the majority of people simply stop buying cars. The convenience of tapping an app and getting a driverless car to collect you and drive you to your destination, without any of the maintenance and ownership concerns that come with owning a vehicle may prove too tempting to most. Especially if these car pods become quite paired down and mechanically simply. So regular people rather than opting for the best entertainment may opt for some cheaper solutions, while being advertised to and getting privacy raped: electrification, autonomy, ride hailing — as Tim has said, and Elon is doing.
What part of that ("So regular people rather than opting for the best entertainment may opt for some cheaper solutions, while being advertised to and getting privacy raped: electrification, autonomy, ride hailing") are you attributing to Tim?
Personal transport is going through a huge transformation right now. Future car will be a 90/10 split between a comfortable seating pod with lots of entertainment and a tiny power train that you hardly notice. Software for engine management, navigation, and infotainment will be what differentiates brands. Think super lux pods in first class sections of airplanes. Would love to sleep my way to and from Vegas. Apple will be part of this.
I wonder if the majority of people simply stop buying cars. The convenience of tapping an app and getting a driverless car to collect you and drive you to your destination, without any of the maintenance and ownership concerns that come with owning a vehicle may prove too tempting to most. Especially if these car pods become quite paired down and mechanically simply. So regular people rather than opting for the best entertainment may opt for some cheaper solutions, while being advertised to and getting privacy raped: electrification, autonomy, ride hailing — as Tim has said, and Elon is doing.
As for Elon, hat tip to a guy that can create the buzz to sell EV's, but Tesla is firmly in the set of automakers not now making profits, nor likely to in the future. Tesla is no disruption in the industry. Automaking would be best described as a twilight industry that once was the driver of national economies, from manufacturing, to resource extraction, to retailing and service.
I wouldn’t bet against Tesla. Their company strategy looks good to me. Many people down the line will perhaps get their car, solar tiled roof and home battery from this company. And they have a clear ride sharing strategy, which may entice a certain portion of their users to buy several cars—as a business.
This makes no sense. This use would be so trivial as to be a complete waste of talent, time and money. If this is, instead just a way to get experience, then it could be useful, but the article doesn’t seem to be saying that.
We don't need anyone to tell us what is obvious. It makes perfect sense.
Except that it isn’t obvious. It wasn’t obvious that bringing back their hardware guy would result in a shutdown of the ‘Titan project. Just the opposite would have been obvious.
the fact is that at this time, we know little about what Apple is intending. It may be obvious to you, but you’ve been wrong before, as have we all.
This makes no sense. This use would be so trivial as to be a complete waste of talent, time and money.
This sounds like something the pundits have said about pretty much everything Apple has done.
It’s easy for a few of you guys to say that, but it doesn’t help. I don’t see you doing any real analysis of this, nor do I see it from Ireland. I tried to do some, but all I see is a response to the first sentence, nothing more. We disagree, but I do respect what you say when you give it some deeper thought, even if I disagree, but that’s not what you’re doing here.
Personal transport is going through a huge transformation right now. Future car will be a 90/10 split between a comfortable seating pod with lots of entertainment and a tiny power train that you hardly notice. Software for engine management, navigation, and infotainment will be what differentiates brands. Think super lux pods in first class sections of airplanes. Would love to sleep my way to and from Vegas. Apple will be part of this.
I wonder if the majority of people simply stop buying cars. The convenience of tapping an app and getting a driverless car to collect you and drive you to your destination, without any of the maintenance and ownership concerns that come with owning a vehicle may prove too tempting to most. Especially if these car pods become quite paired down and mechanically simply. So regular people rather than opting for the best entertainment may opt for some cheaper solutions, while being advertised to and getting privacy raped: electrification, autonomy, ride hailing — as Tim has said, and Elon is doing.
As for Elon, hat tip to a guy that can create the buzz to sell EV's, but Tesla is firmly in the set of automakers not now making profits, nor likely to in the future. Tesla is no disruption in the industry. Automaking would be best described as a twilight industry that once was the driver of national economies, from manufacturing, to resource extraction, to retailing and service.
I wouldn’t bet against Tesla. Their company strategy looks good to me. Many people down the line will perhaps get their car, solar tiled roof and home battery from this company. And they have a clear ride sharing strategy, which may entice a certain portion of their users to buy several cars—as a business.
Personal transport is going through a huge transformation right now. Future car will be a 90/10 split between a comfortable seating pod with lots of entertainment and a tiny power train that you hardly notice. Software for engine management, navigation, and infotainment will be what differentiates brands. Think super lux pods in first class sections of airplanes. Would love to sleep my way to and from Vegas. Apple will be part of this.
I wonder if the majority of people simply stop buying cars. The convenience of tapping an app and getting a driverless car to collect you and drive you to your destination, without any of the maintenance and ownership concerns that come with owning a vehicle may prove too tempting to most. Especially if these car pods become quite paired down and mechanically simply. So regular people rather than opting for the best entertainment may opt for some cheaper solutions, while being advertised to and getting privacy raped: electrification, autonomy, ride hailing — as Tim has said, and Elon is doing.
What part of that ("So regular people rather than opting for the best entertainment may opt for some cheaper solutions, while being advertised to and getting privacy raped: electrification, autonomy, ride hailing") are you attributing to Tim?
Thanks for the link. I don't know exactly what he's saying (e.g., autonomy outside the scope of self-driving cars?), but I'm glad they have smart people looking hard at these issues.
This makes no sense. This use would be so trivial as to be a complete waste of talent, time and money. If this is, instead just a way to get experience, then it could be useful, but the article doesn’t seem to be saying that.
i also have strong doubts that Apple could have a wide success with a real CarOS. There are several entrenched competitors in this field. And yes, I know that Apple has faced entrenched industries before. But it really needs to be remembered that Apple made its success in those industries with software based hardware, not just software. Why would car makers want Apple’s OS? If Apple is as restrictive about sending info back to the car makers as they are with other clients, such as the Ad agencies, then the car makers will have the same reaction. Which is to move away. And if Apple doesn’t, then Apple will lose its voice as the holder of privacy for its customers.
So without an actual vehicle for this OS effort, I don’t see it going anywhere, unless fleets take a shine to it, and that seems very un Apple-like.
Reading the article it seemed as though there were team members wanting to reinvent the automobile and then reality set in and Bob Mansfield was brought in to bring the project back down to earth. But I don’t see how it goes anywhere unless Apple eventually develops its own vehicle.
EDIT: John Gruber had his own take (which sounds like he might have heard some things from employees):
“Shelved” is an accurate word, but I think many people have interpreted it as meaning that Apple has given up on designing its own vehicles. My understanding is that it’s more like “Let’s get the autonomous shit down first, and worry about designing vehicles to put it in after that.” Eat the steak one bite at a time rather than all at once.
This makes the most sense. If you don’t have the software nailed there’s really no point to a car.
I can basically agree with that. But as someone who has developed a fair amount of hardware, and done software development as well, I can say that if you are intending to do a major hardware project, such as a car, you need years of lead time for the hardware. It’s been said that it would take Apple at least four years, and likely five, to develop a commercially viable vehicle.
the only thing I can think of is that if Apple is still intending to do that that it would be with a company such as Magna Steyr. Apple has been working with them, and has had a lot of their engineers on this project.
Cook called the self driving car " the mother of all AI projects". I think that says it all. I don't think they are really serious about designing the actual car yet because unless/until they have the software down it will be premature. If they designed the car now it would certainly not be what they want by the time they have the software ready. So, it's obvious to me why they will stick with the software for a while until the picture is a little clearer.
Williams called a car “The ultimate mobile device” when asked.
Personally I can't see a really good reason for Apple to actually develop a car. To what end?
They make far more profit with consumer and pro-grade electronics and computing. Ain't no way in Hades that they can realize a 30+ margin on a car all things considered. Tooling, patent royalty payments, on-going component support for several years after last sale, maintenance facilities, warranty issues, distinct (and IMO almost certain at some point) possibilities of high-profile, headline-grabbing, legally-mandated recalls that damage Apple's brand, and toss in liabilities and lawsuits over injuries and possibly deaths. Other than "hey me too" why would they continue to pursue a product in a market where no profits at all are possible and with so many downsides?
Personally I think Apple's management has realized that building a car in the foreseeable future doesn't make sense for Apple as a company. Nice thought and well worth investigating since even if a car is never built the learning Apple gained from putting some effort into it can pay dividends in other areas like AR, mapping, robotics, display technologies, etc., but I believe Apple producing a car of their own is more problematic than practical as things stand. Even the traditional automakers who have been working towards this for years and years are struggling with where the profits will come from with future transportation, and how autonomy will fit in actual practice. At some point everyone will have to be if not on the exact same page at least in the same chapter for all of this to work. It is not a space where Apple will be able to dictate terms.
IMHO Apple will not be building their own car from the ground up.
You need to stick to watching Google, my friend. You clearly haven't been watching Apple.
So... ?
You've not explained why you think they're definitely building their own complete car from the ground up. I explained why I think they're not and the reasoning behind it. Don't take the easy way out with some vague comment that anyone could make without thought. So again, to what end?
I don’t think Apple would develop their own care, completely, from the ground up. I do believe that they would want to work on a car and develop their own version of something else. Or use a basic platform, and build upon that.
Where do the most profitable per unit sale automobile reside in the market? I'd guess around the $50–120K range, but I don't know. If they make their own car wouldn't a high value, low volume option—like the Apple Watch—be their best bet for a multitude of reasons? Trying to jump into Rolls Royce or the Prius market doesn't seem like a great plan, but starting where Tesla did—or even higher—would make a lot of sense.
But this market is also very different than anything else they've done so I can see them having to increase unit sale of their IP and possibly their HW by creating a way for every other automobile manufacturer to use their tech, not unlike how Apple caused the iPod to explode by releasing iTunes for Windows (which Steve was reluctant to do).
The bottom line is what is the best way to generate the most money for Apple, and that depends on factors we will never know.
What I see here in that part of the debate is a phrase that I read a number of years ago, which is that Apple builds affordable luxury products. Products that aren’t more expensive, but don’t compete in the lower portion of the market, making it appear as though their products are more expensive, when they’re not.
so I don’t see Apple making a $100,000 car. But even a car that starts at $35,000 is above the average price for a car. And that’s where Tesla is pricing their “cheap” model. So possibly that’s a price that Apple could be looking at. Possibly they would have two cars, one at around the price, and one priced higher. Two different types of car.
would Apple produce a sports model? It’s hard to say. Apple primarily is a family oriented company, so a sedan seems most likely. A comfortable four passenger model, that might fit five, in a pinch, particularly if three were children.
Personally I can't see a really good reason for Apple to actually develop a car. To what end?
They make far more profit with consumer and pro-grade electronics and computing. Ain't no way in Hades that they can realize a 30+ margin on a car all things considered. Tooling, patent royalty payments, on-going component support for several years after last sale, maintenance facilities, warranty issues, distinct (and IMO almost certain at some point) possibilities of high-profile, headline-grabbing, legally-mandated recalls that damage Apple's brand, and toss in liabilities and lawsuits over injuries and possibly deaths. Other than "hey me too" why would they continue to pursue a product in a market where no profits at all are possible and with so many downsides?
Personally I think Apple's management has realized that building a car in the foreseeable future doesn't make sense for Apple as a company. Nice thought and well worth investigating since even if a car is never built the learning Apple gained from putting some effort into it can pay dividends in other areas like AR, mapping, robotics, display technologies, etc., but I believe Apple producing a car of their own is more problematic than practical as things stand. Even the traditional automakers who have been working towards this for years and years are struggling with where the profits will come from with future transportation, and how autonomy will fit in actual practice. At some point everyone will have to be if not on the exact same page at least in the same chapter for all of this to work. It is not a space where Apple will be able to dictate terms.
IMHO Apple will not be building their own car from the ground up.
You need to stick to watching Google, my friend. You clearly haven't been watching Apple.
So... ?
You've not explained why you think they're definitely building their own complete car from the ground up. I explained why I think they're not and the reasoning behind it. Don't take the easy way out with some vague comment that anyone could make without thought. So again, to what end?
I'll bite on that. They MIGHT DESIGN and even make a vehicle from the ground up if they decide they can come up with a better product than other companies are making, just like they've always been motivated to do.
Judging from the pure obnoxiousness of current car design generally, I'm guessing that Ive and Newsome et al. are itching to "do" a car, but as others and maybe Mansfield have said, it's best to wait till the software nut is cracked first, then see what the design environment is at that time, which could be years away.
Head fake.
Also a possibility, as I believe Tim did when he was knocking the idea of wearable screens—glasses—a few years ago.
Personal transport is going through a huge transformation right now. Future car will be a 90/10 split between a comfortable seating pod with lots of entertainment and a tiny power train that you hardly notice. Software for engine management, navigation, and infotainment will be what differentiates brands. Think super lux pods in first class sections of airplanes. Would love to sleep my way to and from Vegas. Apple will be part of this.
I wonder if the majority of people simply stop buying cars. The convenience of tapping an app and getting a driverless car to collect you and drive you to your destination, without any of the maintenance and ownership concerns that come with owning a vehicle may prove too tempting to most. Especially if these car pods become quite paired down and mechanically simply. So regular people rather than opting for the best entertainment may opt for some cheaper solutions, while being advertised to and getting privacy raped: electrification, autonomy, ride hailing — as Tim has said, and Elon is doing.
As for Elon, hat tip to a guy that can create the buzz to sell EV's, but Tesla is firmly in the set of automakers not now making profits, nor likely to in the future. Tesla is no disruption in the industry. Automaking would be best described as a twilight industry that once was the driver of national economies, from manufacturing, to resource extraction, to retailing and service.
I wouldn’t bet against Tesla. Their company strategy looks good to me. Many people down the line will perhaps get their car, solar tiled roof and home battery from this company. And they have a clear ride sharing strategy, which may entice a certain portion of their users to buy several cars—as a business.
The word is still out on Tesla. They have to prove that they can produce the number of cars a year that they say they will, which is 500,000 in 2018, and increasing from that. So far, it doesn’t look as though they will meet that number.
and they don’t have the money for that complete expansion, which is why they’re selling those junk bonds, which I’m reading as some of the riskiest junk bonds ever released.
SolarCity was in very serious financial shape before the buyout, with some risk of bankruptcy. Another highly criticized business decision by Musk. His Gigafactory for lithium batteries has been having constant problems too, and his solar roofs cost a lot more than he was stating, and most buyers will never recover costs.
so while I’m not willing to count him out yet, the countdown is in progress.
Comments
Judging from the pure obnoxiousness of current car design generally, I'm guessing that Ive and Newsome et al. are itching to "do" a car, but as others and maybe Mansfield have said, it's best to wait till the software nut is cracked first, then see what the design environment is at that time, which could be years away.
But this market is also very different than anything else they've done so I can see them having to increase unit sale of their IP and possibly their HW by creating a way for every other automobile manufacturer to use their tech, not unlike how Apple caused the iPod to explode by releasing iTunes for Windows (which Steve was reluctant to do).
The bottom line is what is the best way to generate the most money for Apple, and that depends on factors we will never know.
If they can create a vehicle substantially better than the car companies can, and IF the public likes what they see and agrees, and IF the software works as intended 99.9% of the time and in all situations, and IF the liability issue is dealt with via legislation or thru the insurance industry, and IF consumers like both the idea of not driving and feel safe relinquishing control themselves, and IF the government in concert with the industry can agree on how best to integrate dozens or hundreds of various autonomous vehicle models with different control systems and hardware and capabilities into the same pool of vehicles on the road but needing to reliably communicate with and react to each other, and IF once all that is answered Apple decides enough profit is assured to make it worth the time and risks then they MIGHT build a car...
IF they haven't moved on to something with less risk and better profits. There's probably a lot of other IF's I've not even considered.
So I'll stick to my opinion that anyone holding off on replacing their current vehicle with an "Apple Car" is going to be really disappointed. There is no Apple-designed and Apple-built car coming in the foreseeable future IMHO.
The essence of your argument is correct; there will be alternatives to ownership, and those vehicles design for shared use will have a different build and configuration than those designed for personal ownership. Overall, automaking is a declining market with too much production capacity.
As for Elon, hat tip to a guy that can create the buzz to sell EV's, but Tesla is firmly in the set of automakers not now making profits, nor likely to in the future. Tesla is no disruption in the industry. Automaking would be best described as a twilight industry that once was the driver of national economies, from manufacturing, to resource extraction, to retailing and service.
What part of that ("So regular people rather than opting for the best entertainment may opt for some cheaper solutions, while being advertised to and getting privacy raped: electrification, autonomy, ride hailing") are you attributing to Tim?
I do see a big culture shift with the younger generations. I personally greatly prefer having a car in the driveway to calling some stranger to drive me around, but I have 2 teenagers of driving age who have actively resisted learning how to drive and have no great affinity for personal transportation. And they aren't unusual among their friends. First off, they get together in person MUCH less than I did with my friends when I was their age (reducing the need for transportation). Secondly, they are much more willing to let someone else do the driving. So as hard as it is for me to believe, I do see the beginning of the end of the "2 cars in every garage."
(electrification, autonomy, ride sharing)
https://youtu.be/i0293Mebfi4
I wouldn’t bet against Tesla. Their company strategy looks good to me. Many people down the line will perhaps get their car, solar tiled roof and home battery from this company. And they have a clear ride sharing strategy, which may entice a certain portion of their users to buy several cars—as a business.
the fact is that at this time, we know little about what Apple is intending. It may be obvious to you, but you’ve been wrong before, as have we all.
It’s easy for a few of you guys to say that, but it doesn’t help. I don’t see you doing any real analysis of this, nor do I see it from Ireland. I tried to do some, but all I see is a response to the first sentence, nothing more. We disagree, but I do respect what you say when you give it some deeper thought, even if I disagree, but that’s not what you’re doing here.
Two opposing sides of the Tesla story; your choice.
Thanks for the link. I don't know exactly what he's saying (e.g., autonomy outside the scope of self-driving cars?), but I'm glad they have smart people looking hard at these issues.
I can basically agree with that. But as someone who has developed a fair amount of hardware, and done software development as well, I can say that if you are intending to do a major hardware project, such as a car, you need years of lead time for the hardware. It’s been said that it would take Apple at least four years, and likely five, to develop a commercially viable vehicle.
the only thing I can think of is that if Apple is still intending to do that that it would be with a company such as Magna Steyr. Apple has been working with them, and has had a lot of their engineers on this project.
I don’t think Apple would develop their own care, completely, from the ground up. I do believe that they would want to work on a car and develop their own version of something else. Or use a basic platform, and build upon that.
so I don’t see Apple making a $100,000 car. But even a car that starts at $35,000 is above the average price for a car. And that’s where Tesla is pricing their “cheap” model. So possibly that’s a price that Apple could be looking at. Possibly they would have two cars, one at around the price, and one priced higher. Two different types of car.
would Apple produce a sports model? It’s hard to say. Apple primarily is a family oriented company, so a sedan seems most likely. A comfortable four passenger model, that might fit five, in a pinch, particularly if three were children.
but what else would they do?
The word is still out on Tesla. They have to prove that they can produce the number of cars a year that they say they will, which is 500,000 in 2018, and increasing from that. So far, it doesn’t look as though they will meet that number.
and they don’t have the money for that complete expansion, which is why they’re selling those junk bonds, which I’m reading as some of the riskiest junk bonds ever released.
SolarCity was in very serious financial shape before the buyout, with some risk of bankruptcy. Another highly criticized business decision by Musk. His Gigafactory for lithium batteries has been having constant problems too, and his solar roofs cost a lot more than he was stating, and most buyers will never recover costs.
so while I’m not willing to count him out yet, the countdown is in progress.