OK, I seem to recall that Tesla was a week or so ahead of schedule for the first Model 3 rolling off the assembly line. What time-based goal post was conveniently moved there?
So, you believe that Tesla will build 20,000 Model 3's a month in December, or will you fall back on Elon's supply chain disclaimers as an excuse for missing the "goalpost"?
How wide a miss will Tesla be allowed?
You made a claim and I asked you about the most recent claim with a time that past so you can point out where Musk had moved the goal posts. Instead you make a Son-Like claim about the future. I'm curious if you (and melgross) have also said that Apple is about to collapse under itself after it keeps missing its own self-imposed deadlines*. I doubt it.
Meeting a delivery schedule in July for 30 Model 3's seems to be the last goal post he met, but what about the target of 1500 in September, or how about the 20,000 a month by the end of the year?
Do you really think that he will meet those targets?
I don't.
What part of not making wild claims about the future don't you understand? Just as Apple misses self imposed deadlines and I don't take time of death (but the pundits do), I'm not going to do the same for Tesla because you say you don't think it's possible for them to hit a "target of 1500 in September." I don't care if they hit 1000, 1499, or 2000 next month. None of those numbers means the company is going under, that Tesla is a scam, and Musk is a shyster fleecing stockholders.
You people have been prognosticating Tesla's doom since the day it was founded yet they keep making more cars. You literally sound exactly like the people that come here saying Apple is doomed.
All of the comments following are in this thread, save a couple of acknowledgements of agreement. No where in there did I mention Tesla's doom other than the billion dollar a quarter burn rate of cash, and a possible future of not making profits.
Thanks for putting words in my mouth because you were too busy enabling wannabe Iron Man to actually respond with facts.
Now you can go back and stick your head in the sand and DBAD; I'm finished playing.
The essence of your argument is correct; there will be alternatives to ownership, and those vehicles design for shared use will have a different build and configuration than those designed for personal ownership. Overall, automaking is a declining market with too much production capacity.
As for Elon, hat tip to a guy that can create the buzz to sell EV's, but Tesla is firmly in the set of automakers not now making profits, nor likely to in the future. Tesla is no disruption in the industry. Automaking would be best described as a twilight industry that once was the driver of national economies, from manufacturing, to resource extraction, to retailing and service."
LG basically delivered an engineered drive train and electronics integrated into one of GM's existing platforms to create the Bolt. Assuming that there will be autonomous driving mechatronics, telematics, electronics, and software bundles available on the market to automakers, and there will be, and understanding that auto manufacturing's entire history is built on diffusion of innovation, then what makes a successful company will be branding, design, and manufacturing prowess. Tesla, as an example, has mastered the first two, and is in the process of proving, or not, its manufacturing prowess.
I'm not seeing the difficultly of building a branded car within the supply chain, or even creating a bundle of autonomous technologies; it's expensive and time consuming, but Apple could certainly accomplish all of that. I think that there is an assumption that Apple will be late to the game if they don't have concrete plans in place to deliver a car by, let's say 2022. I don't see that, Even Toyota isn't planning on going big on EV until 2022. Current EV use in the world is a fraction of a percent of all vehicles in use, so there isn't a barrier to entry later if Apple chooses to deliver an autonomous EV.
I'm pessimistic that Apple will actually build a car, due to the low margins and profits in the industry, but I am agreement with you and others; it's still early in the development cycle for the technologies that will be required of a car.
Few of the naysayers are stating that Tesla won't survive; lots of them are stating that Tesla has a billion dollar a quarter burn rate that isn't sustainable if they don't meet their own stated production targets. Another issue is whether the BOM for the Model 3 will allow Tesla to make a profit at $35,000, even with add ons. Adding to the looming crisis is that Tesla's 200,000 tax credits will, in theory, be gone by mid next year. Then what happens to sales, especially if there is a downturn in the economy? Is Tesla as prepared as Nissan is? I'm seeing lots of European cars, including EV models, competing well against the Model S without tax credits next year,
I know workers at the Gigafactory; battery production isn't anywhere near fully ramped to meet Model 3 production targets. I would be surprised if Tesla gets anywhere close to the 5000 Model 3 delivers a month by the end of the year that Elon has publicly stated. They had only produced 30 Model 3's as customer cars as of the end of last month. (please note my error above; that should have been 5000 a week!)
People love Elon's story, and the brand awareness is astronomical, but I'm not sure that even current Tesla owners will be so forgiving of Elon if he doesn't deliver on time, and doesn't produce a reliable product, all past problems that early adopters were more than happy to absorb. I have no interest in a Tesla purchase or of stock ownership, but Tesla is a big part of our overheated economy in Northern Nevada, so as a naysayer, I would say to Tesla, "get your shit together:" So, this is one of the naysayers that I follow... https://twitter.com/Tweetermeyer and one more
Facts are biased, and are easily confirmed on the internet "yet they have met their goals in the past" is not the same as on time and at cost.
"Elon is King in the country of Moving Goalposts that the River Denial flows through", is not the same as "deep seated anger", so I'm guessing we're still cool?
So, you believe that Tesla will build 20,000 Model 3's a month in December, or will you fall back on Elon's supply chain disclaimers as an excuse for missing the "goalpost"?
Meeting a delivery schedule in July for 30 Model 3's seems to be the last goal post he met, but what about the target of 1500 in September, or how about the 20,000 a month by the end of the year?
Do you really think that he will meet those targets?
OK, I seem to recall that Tesla was a week or so ahead of schedule for the first Model 3 rolling off the assembly line. What time-based goal post was conveniently moved there?
So, you believe that Tesla will build 20,000 Model 3's a month in December, or will you fall back on Elon's supply chain disclaimers as an excuse for missing the "goalpost"?
How wide a miss will Tesla be allowed?
You made a claim and I asked you about the most recent claim with a time that past so you can point out where Musk had moved the goal posts. Instead you make a Son-Like claim about the future. I'm curious if you (and melgross) have also said that Apple is about to collapse under itself after it keeps missing its own self-imposed deadlines*. I doubt it.
Meeting a delivery schedule in July for 30 Model 3's seems to be the last goal post he met, but what about the target of 1500 in September, or how about the 20,000 a month by the end of the year?
Do you really think that he will meet those targets?
I don't.
What part of not making wild claims about the future don't you understand? Just as Apple misses self imposed deadlines and I don't take time of death (but the pundits do), I'm not going to do the same for Tesla because you say you don't think it's possible for them to hit a "target of 1500 in September." I don't care if they hit 1000, 1499, or 2000 next month. None of those numbers means the company is going under, that Tesla is a scam, and Musk is a shyster fleecing stockholders.
You people have been prognosticating Tesla's doom since the day it was founded yet they keep making more cars. You literally sound exactly like the people that come here saying Apple is doomed.
All of the comments following are in this thread, save a couple of acknowledgements of agreement. No where in there did I mention Tesla's doom other than the billion dollar a quarter burn rate of cash, and a possible future of not making profits.
Thanks for putting words in my mouth because you were too busy enabling wannabe Iron Man to actually respond with facts.
Now you can go back and stick your head in the sand and DBAD; I'm finished playing.
You've been pussyfooting and being passive-aggressive but your intent is clear with your link posting about what may happen based on this or that pundit. Even now you're calling Musk "wannabe Iron Man" which clearly shows a really odd animosity toward the man when talking about what a automobile company is doing today.
OK, I seem to recall that Tesla was a week or so ahead of schedule for the first Model 3 rolling off the assembly line. What time-based goal post was conveniently moved there?
So, you believe that Tesla will build 20,000 Model 3's a month in December, or will you fall back on Elon's supply chain disclaimers as an excuse for missing the "goalpost"?
How wide a miss will Tesla be allowed?
You made a claim and I asked you about the most recent claim with a time that past so you can point out where Musk had moved the goal posts. Instead you make a Son-Like claim about the future. I'm curious if you (and melgross) have also said that Apple is about to collapse under itself after it keeps missing its own self-imposed deadlines*. I doubt it.
Meeting a delivery schedule in July for 30 Model 3's seems to be the last goal post he met, but what about the target of 1500 in September, or how about the 20,000 a month by the end of the year?
Do you really think that he will meet those targets?
I don't.
What part of not making wild claims about the future don't you understand? Just as Apple misses self imposed deadlines and I don't take time of death (but the pundits do), I'm not going to do the same for Tesla because you say you don't think it's possible for them to hit a "target of 1500 in September." I don't care if they hit 1000, 1499, or 2000 next month. None of those numbers means the company is going under, that Tesla is a scam, and Musk is a shyster fleecing stockholders.
You people have been prognosticating Tesla's doom since the day it was founded yet they keep making more cars. You literally sound exactly like the people that come here saying Apple is doomed.
All of the comments following are in this thread, save a couple of acknowledgements of agreement. No where in there did I mention Tesla's doom other than the billion dollar a quarter burn rate of cash, and a possible future of not making profits.
Thanks for putting words in my mouth because you were too busy enabling wannabe Iron Man to actually respond with facts.
Now you can go back and stick your head in the sand and DBAD; I'm finished playing.
You've been pussyfooting and being passive-aggressive but your intent is clear with your link posting about what may happen based on this or that pundit. Even now you're calling Musk "wannabe Iron Man" which clearly shows a really odd animosity toward the man when talking about what a automobile company is doing today.
Soli, was Musk your college roommate or something? You seem very sensitive to even the mildest of criticisms of the guy and his company.
Personally, I believe the economy needs people like Musk, who like Jobs and many others before him, think big and inspire employees and others to (attempt to) do "impossible" things. But what's wrong with pointing out when reality is out of alignment when their predictions or promises?
(and "wannabe Iron Man" is pretty funny, even if it should be "wannabe Tony Stark." Is there any doubt that Musk (and plenty of other big ego, high octane guys) think "yeah, that's me" when watching Morton Downey Jr. doing amazing tech stuff in Marvel movies?)
This makes no sense. This use would be so trivial as to be a complete waste of talent, time and money. If this is, instead just a way to get experience, then it could be useful, but the article doesn’t seem to be saying that.
i also have strong doubts that Apple could have a wide success with a real CarOS. There are several entrenched competitors in this field. And yes, I know that Apple has faced entrenched industries before. But it really needs to be remembered that Apple made its success in those industries with software based hardware, not just software. Why would car makers want Apple’s OS? If Apple is as restrictive about sending info back to the car makers as they are with other clients, such as the Ad agencies, then the car makers will have the same reaction. Which is to move away. And if Apple doesn’t, then Apple will lose its voice as the holder of privacy for its customers.
So without an actual vehicle for this OS effort, I don’t see it going anywhere, unless fleets take a shine to it, and that seems very un Apple-like.
Reading the article it seemed as though there were team members wanting to reinvent the automobile and then reality set in and Bob Mansfield was brought in to bring the project back down to earth. But I don’t see how it goes anywhere unless Apple eventually develops its own vehicle.
EDIT: John Gruber had his own take (which sounds like he might have heard some things from employees):
“Shelved” is an accurate word, but I think many people have interpreted it as meaning that Apple has given up on designing its own vehicles. My understanding is that it’s more like “Let’s get the autonomous shit down first, and worry about designing vehicles to put it in after that.” Eat the steak one bite at a time rather than all at once.
This makes the most sense. If you don’t have the software nailed there’s really no point to a car.
I can basically agree with that. But as someone who has developed a fair amount of hardware, and done software development as well, I can say that if you are intending to do a major hardware project, such as a car, you need years of lead time for the hardware. It’s been said that it would take Apple at least four years, and likely five, to develop a commercially viable vehicle.
the only thing I can think of is that if Apple is still intending to do that that it would be with a company such as Magna Steyr. Apple has been working with them, and has had a lot of their engineers on this project.
It bothers me when people compare this to Nokia and RIM and use that “they’re not going to just walk in here...” quote. There is no comparison. Building an autonomous/self-driving vehicle is WAY more complicated than building a computer for your pocket.
You just used the “they’re not going to just walk in here...” quote.
If it’s impossible for Apple then how is Tesla, Google, Uber and many others able to work on this? Why is t not possible for Apple, but possible for everyone else?
Google isn't building a car either Soli, realizing a couple years ago that partnering with automakers and looking into ride-sharing as a service was the better way to monetize it. I believe that's one reason why several automakers are suddenly willing to work with Google in the past year or so, not worrying so much anymore that they are positioning themselves as a competing carmaker.
If the industry sees Apple as trying to steal their customers and kill their business they'll stop cooperating with them. That they haven't seems evidence that the carmakers don't believe Apple still plans a car either and they'd probably know better than any of us since engineers and managers move around so much. Just my opinion of course, and mine holds no more weight than yours so feel free to ignore it.
I do t think that Google was ever interested in making a car for a very simple,e reason. Everything Google does, whether a service, a product they do themselves, or a company they buy, is devoted to getting user information that they can use for their advertisers. Everything. They don’t make their own phones or tablets, because the ROI on those is too low. So they hand them off to other companies who design them and make them. Google’s input is very minor except for native Android on the devices. They sell in small numbers, because they’re really not great devices, usually.
a car is far worse. There is no way they could ever retrieve their investments making cars. And that retrieval is mostly the customermdata they would derive from it. They are not a real hardware maker. The only successful hardware they make costs less than $50, and no doubt is sold for a loss.
but Apple is a hardware makers, one of the largest in the world. It’s where they lake their money from. App,EU knows hardware. They know when it’s too complex as well, as possibly this project is right now. They haven’t fully committed. We don’t know where they’re going with this long term, but both Williams and Cook have indicated their very serious interest.
i can’t see Apple developing autonomous software just for the purpose of selling it. That really makes no sense. Your last paragraph makes no sense either
Last paragraph makes no sense to you? And that's coming from a former business owner that no doubt had worked with outside companies when you were younger? Sure you understand it.
It makes no sense, because I was a business owner, and actually know how it works, as opposed to someone who apparently wasn’t a business owner, and so doesn’t know how it works.
in all industries, competing companies make parts and assemblies for direct competitors. I find it truly hard to believe that you don’t seem to be aware of that fact. Where have you been all this time? Don’t you know that Samsung will be selling Apple about $15 billion in parts next year? Oh wait, you’re right, they’re not in the same industry, and aren’t competitors in any areas.
Oh geez, are you now going to pretend you don't know the difference between a profitable mutually-beneficial business arrangement and one company actively trying to put the other out of business by making it unprofitable for them to continue? At the point auto manufacturers (or even ride-hailing companies) believe that Apple intends to compete with them and destroy their ability to make a profit they will not be cooperating with Apple, nor promoting Apple services.
There's a reason Apple is finding it to be a tough go making friends and forming partnerships in the movie and tv industry. Those companies have seen what happened in the past and are much less likely to cooperate with it happening again.
This argument is not very plausible. According to this logic an auto maker would make their current product less market-competitive by removing Car Play if they believed that Apple is working on a car. Even if that thought was entertained, it would make no logical business sense. Even if every car maker dropped Car Play it would have a less than negligible impact on Apple's earnings and potential R&D budget. Therefore why should Ford (for example) shoot themselves in the foot by dumping Car Play? And then to toss ride-hailing companies into the argument!? So Uber is going to remove its app from the App Store because Apple might get into that market 5 years from now? That would be the greatest gift to Lyft that Uber could ever give. Uber and Apple have a nice business arrangement and neither is going to spoil it just because they may compete in the future.
OK, I seem to recall that Tesla was a week or so ahead of schedule for the first Model 3 rolling off the assembly line. What time-based goal post was conveniently moved there?
So, you believe that Tesla will build 20,000 Model 3's a month in December, or will you fall back on Elon's supply chain disclaimers as an excuse for missing the "goalpost"?
How wide a miss will Tesla be allowed?
You made a claim and I asked you about the most recent claim with a time that past so you can point out where Musk had moved the goal posts. Instead you make a Son-Like claim about the future. I'm curious if you (and melgross) have also said that Apple is about to collapse under itself after it keeps missing its own self-imposed deadlines*. I doubt it.
Meeting a delivery schedule in July for 30 Model 3's seems to be the last goal post he met, but what about the target of 1500 in September, or how about the 20,000 a month by the end of the year?
Do you really think that he will meet those targets?
I don't.
What part of not making wild claims about the future don't you understand? Just as Apple misses self imposed deadlines and I don't take time of death (but the pundits do), I'm not going to do the same for Tesla because you say you don't think it's possible for them to hit a "target of 1500 in September." I don't care if they hit 1000, 1499, or 2000 next month. None of those numbers means the company is going under, that Tesla is a scam, and Musk is a shyster fleecing stockholders.
You people have been prognosticating Tesla's doom since the day it was founded yet they keep making more cars. You literally sound exactly like the people that come here saying Apple is doomed.
All of the comments following are in this thread, save a couple of acknowledgements of agreement. No where in there did I mention Tesla's doom other than the billion dollar a quarter burn rate of cash, and a possible future of not making profits.
Thanks for putting words in my mouth because you were too busy enabling wannabe Iron Man to actually respond with facts.
Now you can go back and stick your head in the sand and DBAD; I'm finished playing.
You've been pussyfooting and being passive-aggressive but your intent is clear with your link posting about what may happen based on this or that pundit. Even now you're calling Musk "wannabe Iron Man" which clearly shows a really odd animosity toward the man when talking about what a automobile company is doing today.
Soli, was Musk your college roommate or something? You seem very sensitive to even the mildest of criticisms of the guy and his company.
Personally, I believe the economy needs people like Musk, who like Jobs and many others before him, think big and inspire employees and others to (attempt to) do "impossible" things. But what's wrong with pointing out when reality is out of alignment when their predictions or promises?
(and "wannabe Iron Man" is pretty funny, even if it should be "wannabe Tony Stark." Is there any doubt that Musk (and plenty of other big ego, high octane guys) think "yeah, that's me" when watching Morton Downey Jr. doing amazing tech stuff in Marvel movies?)
I don't understand why Musk is even a consideration. It's like when people come here to slam Apple and call Tim Cook a faggt to justify their irrational hatred of the company and its products. It's juvenile, bigoted, and reveals one's true self when you start attacking company executives when talking about the company's products. And it's interesting that you mention "big egos" and yet I don't recall any of you saying that Apple was going to crumble because of Steve Jobs ego. In fact, it seems that his ego is large part of your admiration of Apple and its products. You don't find that hypocritical? I do, yet I recall don't care because I don't give a shit of how you feel about Musk's ego, Cook's homosexuality, or Jobs' narcissism when talking about a company's current products compared to the rest of the industry and my personal needs.
OK, I seem to recall that Tesla was a week or so ahead of schedule for the first Model 3 rolling off the assembly line. What time-based goal post was conveniently moved there?
So, you believe that Tesla will build 20,000 Model 3's a month in December, or will you fall back on Elon's supply chain disclaimers as an excuse for missing the "goalpost"?
How wide a miss will Tesla be allowed?
You made a claim and I asked you about the most recent claim with a time that past so you can point out where Musk had moved the goal posts. Instead you make a Son-Like claim about the future. I'm curious if you (and melgross) have also said that Apple is about to collapse under itself after it keeps missing its own self-imposed deadlines*. I doubt it.
Meeting a delivery schedule in July for 30 Model 3's seems to be the last goal post he met, but what about the target of 1500 in September, or how about the 20,000 a month by the end of the year?
Do you really think that he will meet those targets?
I don't.
What part of not making wild claims about the future don't you understand? Just as Apple misses self imposed deadlines and I don't take time of death (but the pundits do), I'm not going to do the same for Tesla because you say you don't think it's possible for them to hit a "target of 1500 in September." I don't care if they hit 1000, 1499, or 2000 next month. None of those numbers means the company is going under, that Tesla is a scam, and Musk is a shyster fleecing stockholders.
You people have been prognosticating Tesla's doom since the day it was founded yet they keep making more cars. You literally sound exactly like the people that come here saying Apple is doomed.
All of the comments following are in this thread, save a couple of acknowledgements of agreement. No where in there did I mention Tesla's doom other than the billion dollar a quarter burn rate of cash, and a possible future of not making profits.
Thanks for putting words in my mouth because you were too busy enabling wannabe Iron Man to actually respond with facts.
Now you can go back and stick your head in the sand and DBAD; I'm finished playing.
You've been pussyfooting and being passive-aggressive but your intent is clear with your link posting about what may happen based on this or that pundit. Even now you're calling Musk "wannabe Iron Man" which clearly shows a really odd animosity toward the man when talking about what a automobile company is doing today.
Soli, was Musk your college roommate or something? You seem very sensitive to even the mildest of criticisms of the guy and his company.
Personally, I believe the economy needs people like Musk, who like Jobs and many others before him, think big and inspire employees and others to (attempt to) do "impossible" things. But what's wrong with pointing out when reality is out of alignment when their predictions or promises?
(and "wannabe Iron Man" is pretty funny, even if it should be "wannabe Tony Stark." Is there any doubt that Musk (and plenty of other big ego, high octane guys) think "yeah, that's me" when watching Morton Downey Jr. doing amazing tech stuff in Marvel movies?)
I thought about the "Tony Stark" vs "Ironman: thing, but Elon is already many people's real life "Tony Stark", hence why I went with "Ironman", the cartoon character that kids want to be.
I thought about the "Tony Stark" vs "Ironman: thing, but Elon is already many people's real life "Tony Stark", hence why I went with "Ironman", the cartoon character.
In what way? The man has vision but he exudes none of the charisma that Robert Downey, Jr. brings to the role and is sub-par presenter. I'd rather listen to Tim Cook's subdued presentations at an Apple event than Musk's staggered speech. So how exactly is he considered "many people's real life Tony Stark'"? If you don't think he is then why do you keep bringing it up and why do you keep moving the goal posts away from the original discussion about Tesla's current production? Frankly, you're sounding obsessed with the man—and that's weird (which applies to being obsessed with any executive).
OK, I seem to recall that Tesla was a week or so ahead of schedule for the first Model 3 rolling off the assembly line. What time-based goal post was conveniently moved there?
So, you believe that Tesla will build 20,000 Model 3's a month in December, or will you fall back on Elon's supply chain disclaimers as an excuse for missing the "goalpost"?
How wide a miss will Tesla be allowed?
You made a claim and I asked you about the most recent claim with a time that past so you can point out where Musk had moved the goal posts. Instead you make a Son-Like claim about the future. I'm curious if you (and melgross) have also said that Apple is about to collapse under itself after it keeps missing its own self-imposed deadlines*. I doubt it.
Meeting a delivery schedule in July for 30 Model 3's seems to be the last goal post he met, but what about the target of 1500 in September, or how about the 20,000 a month by the end of the year?
Do you really think that he will meet those targets?
I don't.
What part of not making wild claims about the future don't you understand? Just as Apple misses self imposed deadlines and I don't take time of death (but the pundits do), I'm not going to do the same for Tesla because you say you don't think it's possible for them to hit a "target of 1500 in September." I don't care if they hit 1000, 1499, or 2000 next month. None of those numbers means the company is going under, that Tesla is a scam, and Musk is a shyster fleecing stockholders.
You people have been prognosticating Tesla's doom since the day it was founded yet they keep making more cars. You literally sound exactly like the people that come here saying Apple is doomed.
All of the comments following are in this thread, save a couple of acknowledgements of agreement. No where in there did I mention Tesla's doom other than the billion dollar a quarter burn rate of cash, and a possible future of not making profits.
Thanks for putting words in my mouth because you were too busy enabling wannabe Iron Man to actually respond with facts.
Now you can go back and stick your head in the sand and DBAD; I'm finished playing.
You've been pussyfooting and being passive-aggressive but your intent is clear with your link posting about what may happen based on this or that pundit. Even now you're calling Musk "wannabe Iron Man" which clearly shows a really odd animosity toward the man when talking about what a automobile company is doing today.
Soli, was Musk your college roommate or something? You seem very sensitive to even the mildest of criticisms of the guy and his company.
Personally, I believe the economy needs people like Musk, who like Jobs and many others before him, think big and inspire employees and others to (attempt to) do "impossible" things. But what's wrong with pointing out when reality is out of alignment when their predictions or promises?
(and "wannabe Iron Man" is pretty funny, even if it should be "wannabe Tony Stark." Is there any doubt that Musk (and plenty of other big ego, high octane guys) think "yeah, that's me" when watching Morton Downey Jr. doing amazing tech stuff in Marvel movies?)
I don't understand why Musk is even a consideration. It's like when people come here to slam Apple and call Tim Cook a faggt to justify their irrational hatred of the company and its products. It's juvenile, bigoted, and reveals one's true self when you start attacking company executives when talking about the company's products. And it's interesting that you mention "big egos" and yet I don't recall any of you saying that Apple was going to crumble because of Steve Jobs ego. In fact, it seems that his ego is large part of your admiration of Apple and its products. You don't find that hypocritical? I do, yet I recall don't care because I don't give a shit of how you feel about Musk's ego, Cook's homosexuality, or Jobs' narcissism when talking about a company's current products compared to the rest of the industry and my personal needs.
Did you even read what I wrote? Personally, I'm not criticizing Musk for his "big ego." Hell, I don't even know the guy, maybe he's the most humble, generous guy in the world. I'm not a psychologist, so I use "big ego" as shorthand for "someone who believes they can change the world, personally." I'm pretty sure THAT applies to Musk, and, as I said, we need people like that.
You're the one who seems to have an obsession with the guy. Go back and read message 87 in this thread where you attribute "deep seeded anger" to melgross for pointing out facts about the Series 3 history. You're the one who seems to be bringing the emotion to this discussion.
The media almost unanimously glorify Telsa and Musk at every turn. What's wrong with pointing out that Tesla as a company hasn't actually proven that they can make any money (while acknowledging that many, many people lust after their groundbreaking products). It's a weak analogy, but there are parallels with Delorean from an earlier era. You can think a stainless steel car is super cool and stylish and still accept that a company kept afloat with drug money probably isn't a great business.
Did you even read what I wrote? Personally, I'm not criticizing Musk for his "big ego." Hell, I don't even know the guy, maybe he's the most humble, generous guy in the world. I'm not a psychologist, so I use "big ego" as shorthand for "someone who believes they can change the world, personally." I'm pretty sure THAT applies to Musk, and, as I said, we need people like that.
You're the one who seems to have an obsession with the guy. Go back and read message 87 in this thread where you attribute "deep seeded anger" to melgross for pointing out facts about the Series 3 history. You're the one who seems to be bringing the emotion to this discussion.
The media almost unanimously glorify Telsa and Musk at every turn. What's wrong with pointing out that Tesla as a company hasn't actually proven that they can make any money (while acknowledging that many, many people lust after their groundbreaking products). It's a weak analogy, but there are parallels with Delorean from an earlier era. You can think a stainless steel car is super cool and stylish and still accept that a company kept afloat with drug money probably isn't a great business.
1) Where did I once polish Musk's knob?
2) Again, this "not making any money" is the exact BS we heard about Apple while it was growing their business and about Amazon every quarter, yet it seems like the same people that are anti-Tesla and oddly making it a personal attack against Musk were the same ones that were pro-Apple. Based on your logic neither Apple nor Amazon should exist today so why are Tmay and Melgross ignoring what Tesla havedone and prognosticating about how Tesla is absolutely doomed in the near future? I don't care about Musk. I don't care about possible dystopian scenario these guys are predicting. All I care about are the products they are producing right now. Did any of you once say that Apple is going to fail when they've missed innumerable self-imposed deadlines and had backorders for more product than I can even remember? I seriously doubt it and none of you have shown me any evidence that buying a Tesla is a bad purchase over a Prius.
Did you even read what I wrote? Personally, I'm not criticizing Musk for his "big ego." Hell, I don't even know the guy, maybe he's the most humble, generous guy in the world. I'm not a psychologist, so I use "big ego" as shorthand for "someone who believes they can change the world, personally." I'm pretty sure THAT applies to Musk, and, as I said, we need people like that.
You're the one who seems to have an obsession with the guy. Go back and read message 87 in this thread where you attribute "deep seeded anger" to melgross for pointing out facts about the Series 3 history. You're the one who seems to be bringing the emotion to this discussion.
The media almost unanimously glorify Telsa and Musk at every turn. What's wrong with pointing out that Tesla as a company hasn't actually proven that they can make any money (while acknowledging that many, many people lust after their groundbreaking products). It's a weak analogy, but there are parallels with Delorean from an earlier era. You can think a stainless steel car is super cool and stylish and still accept that a company kept afloat with drug money probably isn't a great business.
1) Where did I once polish Musk's knob?
2) Again, this "not making any money" is the exact BS we heard about Apple while it was growing their business and about Amazon every quarter, yet it seems like the same people that are anti-Tesla and oddly making it a personal attack against Musk were the same ones that were pro-Apple. Based on your logic neither Apple nor Amazon should exist today so why are Tmay and Melgross ignoring what Tesla havedone and prognosticating about how Tesla is absolutely doomed in the near future? I don't care about Musk. I don't care about possible dystopian scenario these guys are predicting. All I care about are the products they are producing right now. Did any of you once say that Apple is going to fail when they've missed innumerable self-imposed deadlines and had backorders for more product than I can even remember? I seriously doubt it and none of you have shown me any evidence that buying a Tesla is a bad purchase over a Prius.
1) LOL. Yeah, ok. Sorry that I accused you of that?
2) Again with the overreaction. I personally don't have much of an opinion about Tesla as a company or Elon Musk as a guy; and everyone I know who has an opinion about their cars think they are AMAZING. But why can't we dispassionately discuss the current health of Telsa as a company? Personally, I was very skeptical of Amazon for the many, many years that it operated in the red, but they have executed a bold strategy very effectively and are now the dominate player in retail AND in cloud IT. Good for them. Maybe Tesla will be the most successful and profitable car company on the planet in the future. Why can't we discuss the facts about the company today to help understand if that's likely or not without insulting each other?
Also, I don't think anyone here cares whether you (or anyone else) buy a Tesla or a Prius. This isn't a car review forum. If you have the money and want what a Tesla provides, knock yourself out. My friends will be envious.
OK, I seem to recall that Tesla was a week or so ahead of schedule for the first Model 3 rolling off the assembly line. What time-based goal post was conveniently moved there?
So, you believe that Tesla will build 20,000 Model 3's a month in December, or will you fall back on Elon's supply chain disclaimers as an excuse for missing the "goalpost"?
How wide a miss will Tesla be allowed?
You made a claim and I asked you about the most recent claim with a time that past so you can point out where Musk had moved the goal posts. Instead you make a Son-Like claim about the future. I'm curious if you (and melgross) have also said that Apple is about to collapse under itself after it keeps missing its own self-imposed deadlines*. I doubt it.
There’s a difference Sol. Apple isn’t in serious debt. Apple isn’t losing massive amounts of money each quarter, Apple hasn’t taken over a company that’s also in debt. Apple also doesn’t own its own factories, so it doesn’t take on the problems when those factories fall behind. Apple doesn’t have to raise large amounts of money using really bad junk bonds.
did I miss anything?
did you read the articles I linked to? If you did, you’d see how he moved the goalposts. Most of their products have been late, with numerous problems.
OK, I seem to recall that Tesla was a week or so ahead of schedule for the first Model 3 rolling off the assembly line. What time-based goal post was conveniently moved there?
So, you believe that Tesla will build 20,000 Model 3's a month in December, or will you fall back on Elon's supply chain disclaimers as an excuse for missing the "goalpost"?
How wide a miss will Tesla be allowed?
You made a claim and I asked you about the most recent claim with a time that past so you can point out where Musk had moved the goal posts. Instead you make a Son-Like claim about the future. I'm curious if you (and melgross) have also said that Apple is about to collapse under itself after it keeps missing its own self-imposed deadlines*. I doubt it.
Meeting a delivery schedule in July for 30 Model 3's seems to be the last goal post he met, but what about the target of 1500 in September, or how about the 20,000 a month by the end of the year?
Do you really think that he will meet those targets?
I don't.
What part of not making wild claims about the future don't you understand? Just as Apple misses self imposed deadlines and I don't take time of death (but the pundits do), I'm not going to do the same for Tesla because you say you don't think it's possible for them to hit a "target of 1500 in September." I don't care if they hit 1000, 1499, or 2000 next month. None of those numbers means the company is going under, that Tesla is a scam, and Musk is a shyster fleecing stockholders.
You people have been prognosticating Tesla's doom since the day it was founded yet they keep making more cars. You literally sound exactly like the people that come here saying Apple is doomed.
Apple doesn’t say that they are going to sell a specific number of units in a given time. They don’t give fairly precise numbers as to monthly and yearly production. It’s very different. The only time when Apple did that was back in 2006 when Jobs was asked how many phones he thought Apple would sell, and he said 10 million in a year. They sold 13.5 million that year, so even there, Apple did better than they stated.
but the opposite is true for Tesla. Musk made what have been considered to be outrageous claims, and it looks as though they won’t come close to those claims. In fact, he’s already blaming suppliers for the coming shortfall in production. So he doesn’t seem to think they will make production either. And employees are complaining about high accident levels in the plant because they’re being pushed to speed production. An investigation might take place.
i never said that Tesla itself is a scam. I am saying that his constant habit of claiming things that he can’t do are causing problems for the company. And he does things he shouldn’t, such as continuing to take people’s pre production checks. Originally, those people were promised delivery in 2018, but that will never happen for many, or even most of those customers.
he does the same thing with SpaceX, making claims about the company landing missions on Mars, and starting colonies in just a few years, at cost levels that are less than 10% of costs estimated by other people in the field. People have backed his claims on various sites, and if you said that it would never happen, you were flamed. Well, now he’s had to retract all of those claims. This is what he does. He’s a publicity hound.
OK, I seem to recall that Tesla was a week or so ahead of schedule for the first Model 3 rolling off the assembly line. What time-based goal post was conveniently moved there?
So, you believe that Tesla will build 20,000 Model 3's a month in December, or will you fall back on Elon's supply chain disclaimers as an excuse for missing the "goalpost"?
How wide a miss will Tesla be allowed?
You made a claim and I asked you about the most recent claim with a time that past so you can point out where Musk had moved the goal posts. Instead you make a Son-Like claim about the future. I'm curious if you (and melgross) have also said that Apple is about to collapse under itself after it keeps missing its own self-imposed deadlines*. I doubt it.
Meeting a delivery schedule in July for 30 Model 3's seems to be the last goal post he met, but what about the target of 1500 in September, or how about the 20,000 a month by the end of the year?
Do you really think that he will meet those targets?
I don't.
What part of not making wild claims about the future don't you understand? Just as Apple misses self imposed deadlines and I don't take time of death (but the pundits do), I'm not going to do the same for Tesla because you say you don't think it's possible for them to hit a "target of 1500 in September." I don't care if they hit 1000, 1499, or 2000 next month. None of those numbers means the company is going under, that Tesla is a scam, and Musk is a shyster fleecing stockholders.
You people have been prognosticating Tesla's doom since the day it was founded yet they keep making more cars. You literally sound exactly like the people that come here saying Apple is doomed.
Apple doesn’t say that they are going to sell a specific number of units in a given time. They don’t give fairly precise numbers as to monthly and yearly production. It’s very different. The only time when Apple did that was back in 2006 when Jobs was asked how many phones he thought Apple would sell, and he said 10 million in a year. They sold 13.5 million that year, so even there, Apple did better than they stated.
but the opposite is true for Tesla. Musk made what have been considered to be outrageous claims, and it looks as though they won’t come close to those claims. In fact, he’s already blaming suppliers for the coming shortfall in production. So he doesn’t seem to think they will make production either. And employees are complaining about high accident levels in the plant because they’re being pushed to speed production. An investigation might take place.
i never said that Tesla itself is a scam. I am saying that his constant habit of claiming things that he can’t do are causing problems for the company. And he does things he shouldn’t, such as continuing to take people’s pre production checks. Originally, those people were promised delivery in 2018, but that will never happen for many, or even most of those customers.
he does the same thing with SpaceX, making claims about the company landing missions on Mars, and starting colonies in just a few years, at cost levels that are less than 10% of costs estimated by other people in the field. People have backed his claims on various sites, and if you said that it would never happen, you were flamed. Well, now he’s had to retract all of those claims. This is what he does. He’s a publicity hound.
On topic, good link to Benjamin Evans on the sensor/data battle in autonomous vehicles:
OK, I seem to recall that Tesla was a week or so ahead of schedule for the first Model 3 rolling off the assembly line. What time-based goal post was conveniently moved there?
So, you believe that Tesla will build 20,000 Model 3's a month in December, or will you fall back on Elon's supply chain disclaimers as an excuse for missing the "goalpost"?
How wide a miss will Tesla be allowed?
You made a claim and I asked you about the most recent claim with a time that past so you can point out where Musk had moved the goal posts. Instead you make a Son-Like claim about the future. I'm curious if you (and melgross) have also said that Apple is about to collapse under itself after it keeps missing its own self-imposed deadlines*. I doubt it.
Meeting a delivery schedule in July for 30 Model 3's seems to be the last goal post he met, but what about the target of 1500 in September, or how about the 20,000 a month by the end of the year?
Do you really think that he will meet those targets?
I don't.
What part of not making wild claims about the future don't you understand? Just as Apple misses self imposed deadlines and I don't take time of death (but the pundits do), I'm not going to do the same for Tesla because you say you don't think it's possible for them to hit a "target of 1500 in September." I don't care if they hit 1000, 1499, or 2000 next month. None of those numbers means the company is going under, that Tesla is a scam, and Musk is a shyster fleecing stockholders.
You people have been prognosticating Tesla's doom since the day it was founded yet they keep making more cars. You literally sound exactly like the people that come here saying Apple is doomed.
All of the comments following are in this thread, save a couple of acknowledgements of agreement. No where in there did I mention Tesla's doom other than the billion dollar a quarter burn rate of cash, and a possible future of not making profits.
Thanks for putting words in my mouth because you were too busy enabling wannabe Iron Man to actually respond with facts.
Now you can go back and stick your head in the sand and DBAD; I'm finished playing.
You've been pussyfooting and being passive-aggressive but your intent is clear with your link posting about what may happen based on this or that pundit. Even now you're calling Musk "wannabe Iron Man" which clearly shows a really odd animosity toward the man when talking about what a automobile company is doing today.
Soli, was Musk your college roommate or something? You seem very sensitive to even the mildest of criticisms of the guy and his company.
Personally, I believe the economy needs people like Musk, who like Jobs and many others before him, think big and inspire employees and others to (attempt to) do "impossible" things. But what's wrong with pointing out when reality is out of alignment when their predictions or promises?
(and "wannabe Iron Man" is pretty funny, even if it should be "wannabe Tony Stark." Is there any doubt that Musk (and plenty of other big ego, high octane guys) think "yeah, that's me" when watching Morton Downey Jr. doing amazing tech stuff in Marvel movies?)
I don't understand why Musk is even a consideration. It's like when people come here to slam Apple and call Tim Cook a faggt to justify their irrational hatred of the company and its products. It's juvenile, bigoted, and reveals one's true self when you start attacking company executives when talking about the company's products. And it's interesting that you mention "big egos" and yet I don't recall any of you saying that Apple was going to crumble because of Steve Jobs ego. In fact, it seems that his ego is large part of your admiration of Apple and its products. You don't find that hypocritical? I do, yet I recall don't care because I don't give a shit of how you feel about Musk's ego, Cook's homosexuality, or Jobs' narcissism when talking about a company's current products compared to the rest of the industry and my personal needs.
Nobody is saying anything personal about Musk. We’re not talking about his personal life, nor his political positions. Your comparison to what is said about Cook therefor, is not relevant, and is actually offensive. To compare someone’s business decisions, with someone’s personal life is odious, and I’m surprised you did so.
OK, I seem to recall that Tesla was a week or so ahead of schedule for the first Model 3 rolling off the assembly line. What time-based goal post was conveniently moved there?
So, you believe that Tesla will build 20,000 Model 3's a month in December, or will you fall back on Elon's supply chain disclaimers as an excuse for missing the "goalpost"?
How wide a miss will Tesla be allowed?
You made a claim and I asked you about the most recent claim with a time that past so you can point out where Musk had moved the goal posts. Instead you make a Son-Like claim about the future. I'm curious if you (and melgross) have also said that Apple is about to collapse under itself after it keeps missing its own self-imposed deadlines*. I doubt it.
Meeting a delivery schedule in July for 30 Model 3's seems to be the last goal post he met, but what about the target of 1500 in September, or how about the 20,000 a month by the end of the year?
Do you really think that he will meet those targets?
I don't.
What part of not making wild claims about the future don't you understand? Just as Apple misses self imposed deadlines and I don't take time of death (but the pundits do), I'm not going to do the same for Tesla because you say you don't think it's possible for them to hit a "target of 1500 in September." I don't care if they hit 1000, 1499, or 2000 next month. None of those numbers means the company is going under, that Tesla is a scam, and Musk is a shyster fleecing stockholders.
You people have been prognosticating Tesla's doom since the day it was founded yet they keep making more cars. You literally sound exactly like the people that come here saying Apple is doomed.
Apple doesn’t say that they are going to sell a specific number of units in a given time. They don’t give fairly precise numbers as to monthly and yearly production. It’s very different. The only time when Apple did that was back in 2006 when Jobs was asked how many phones he thought Apple would sell, and he said 10 million in a year. They sold 13.5 million that year, so even there, Apple did better than they stated.
but the opposite is true for Tesla. Musk made what have been considered to be outrageous claims, and it looks as though they won’t come close to those claims. In fact, he’s already blaming suppliers for the coming shortfall in production. So he doesn’t seem to think they will make production either. And employees are complaining about high accident levels in the plant because they’re being pushed to speed production. An investigation might take place.
i never said that Tesla itself is a scam. I am saying that his constant habit of claiming things that he can’t do are causing problems for the company. And he does things he shouldn’t, such as continuing to take people’s pre production checks. Originally, those people were promised delivery in 2018, but that will never happen for many, or even most of those customers.
he does the same thing with SpaceX, making claims about the company landing missions on Mars, and starting colonies in just a few years, at cost levels that are less than 10% of costs estimated by other people in the field. People have backed his claims on various sites, and if you said that it would never happen, you were flamed. Well, now he’s had to retract all of those claims. This is what he does. He’s a publicity hound.
On topic, good link to Benjamin Evans on the sensor/data battle in autonomous vehicles:
That’s not right. Every company is required to prove that they can produce what they claim, which is why many don’t make a claim. Every time Apple doesn’t meat expectations in sales, they get hammered, and they didn’t even claim some number. If a company make a claim, and doesn’t meet it, they get hammered. Tesla made a claim, if they can’t prove they they can meet that claim, by actually doing so, they will get hammered. Much of the price of their stock right has this 500,000 number built into the current, and future stock price. If they can only build 300,000 next year, that amount will be ripped,out of the price.
the reason he’s offering some of the worst junk bonds in history is because he’s desperate for cash. And this also shows why conservatives are always wrong about big tax breaks for these exceedingly wealthy individuals. If he wanted to, he could take some of that wealth he’s gotten from owning a large share of his companies stock, and financed it himself right now, without those bonds, or just bought the bonds up,himself. But people like that almost never invest their own money in their companies that way.
Again, why does Tesla have to produce x-number of vehicles but other automobile companies don't? You people on this forum have been claiming Tesla is going to go under any day now since he first announced the Roadster. A fast EV is impossible blah blah blah. It's just a money grab from a shyster Yada yada yada. Now we're on their 4th car and they've created a massive and growing factory or the Model 3 and batteries. Why does no other automobile company get this sort of scrutiny or derision for having rapid growth and success? I'd think you'd be happy to see a new company and blow out expectations like Apple, to see a company that is doing what was deemed impossible, and yet all you can do is sound like any anti-Apple pundit by claiming that their success is going to end any day. I wouldn't be surprised if you've already said: I’d shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders."
Because, if you haven’t been following this, Tesla, unlike most other companies, has made a VERY big deal about increasing their manufacturing from about 50,000 cars a year, which they’ve had problems meeting, to 500,000 cars a year in 2018. Nobody in the industry believes that they can make that goal. Investors are blinded by Musk, as a personality, as many Apple users and investors had been over the years. The difference is that Apple’s goals were more easily achievable, because as they grew, they had the worlds larges contractors actually assemble their products.
tesla bought an old plant for this, and had to entirely gut it. But the time they got the plant half ready, they were already almost a year behind schedule. The model 3 also has had a lot of development problems, which are continuing. The batteries have been having serious manufacturing problems too. And the software has been soundly criticized.
the problem here is that Tesla has always lost very large amounts of money each year, and it continues to lose very large amounts. With the model 3, they are now losing even more. The biggest question with Tesla is not how big it will get, but whether is will survive at all. Soon, the environmental rebates will cease. How will that affect their sales? That’s another question. The fact that they are already so far behind schedule has prompted Tesla to enter what has become a controversial practice of trying to upgrade model 3 prepaid customers to the sports model at twice the price, offering them an $8,000 rebate to do so, which leaves the base price $70,000 vehicle still much more expensive than the bae $35,000 vehicle, but which is angering the people who are buying the higher price product as their actual choice. All because they as so far behind in production, and QC.
so, yes, they screwed up. They thought they could accept $1,000 checks from people befor product was anywhere near ready to even start production, and had received over 400,000 checks, with the surety that they would receive their car in 2018. Now that it looks as though many won’t, there’s a lawsuit. And they continue to accept new $1,000 checks.
you sarcasm isn’t needed, or appreciated. What Dell said was an off the cuff remark made by an arrogant individual at the height of success for Dell, and the nadir of Apple’s fortunes. He was asked that question by a reporter. It has nothing to do with this issue.
tesla hasn’t gotten the scrutiny that you think it has, and every other car maker has received far more. That’s why Tesla’s stock is vastly overpriced when compared to far larger, and more successful manufacturers in the industry.
Honestly, I think Tesla's best case scenario is they get bought out by one of the majors or one of the ascendant Chinese manufacturers. They have been operating with losses that are quite obviously unsustainable.
OK, I seem to recall that Tesla was a week or so ahead of schedule for the first Model 3 rolling off the assembly line. What time-based goal post was conveniently moved there?
So, you believe that Tesla will build 20,000 Model 3's a month in December, or will you fall back on Elon's supply chain disclaimers as an excuse for missing the "goalpost"?
How wide a miss will Tesla be allowed?
You made a claim and I asked you about the most recent claim with a time that past so you can point out where Musk had moved the goal posts. Instead you make a Son-Like claim about the future. I'm curious if you (and melgross) have also said that Apple is about to collapse under itself after it keeps missing its own self-imposed deadlines*. I doubt it.
Meeting a delivery schedule in July for 30 Model 3's seems to be the last goal post he met, but what about the target of 1500 in September, or how about the 20,000 a month by the end of the year?
Do you really think that he will meet those targets?
I don't.
What part of not making wild claims about the future don't you understand? Just as Apple misses self imposed deadlines and I don't take time of death (but the pundits do), I'm not going to do the same for Tesla because you say you don't think it's possible for them to hit a "target of 1500 in September." I don't care if they hit 1000, 1499, or 2000 next month. None of those numbers means the company is going under, that Tesla is a scam, and Musk is a shyster fleecing stockholders.
You people have been prognosticating Tesla's doom since the day it was founded yet they keep making more cars. You literally sound exactly like the people that come here saying Apple is doomed.
All of the comments following are in this thread, save a couple of acknowledgements of agreement. No where in there did I mention Tesla's doom other than the billion dollar a quarter burn rate of cash, and a possible future of not making profits.
Thanks for putting words in my mouth because you were too busy enabling wannabe Iron Man to actually respond with facts.
Now you can go back and stick your head in the sand and DBAD; I'm finished playing.
You've been pussyfooting and being passive-aggressive but your intent is clear with your link posting about what may happen based on this or that pundit. Even now you're calling Musk "wannabe Iron Man" which clearly shows a really odd animosity toward the man when talking about what a automobile company is doing today.
Soli, was Musk your college roommate or something? You seem very sensitive to even the mildest of criticisms of the guy and his company.
Personally, I believe the economy needs people like Musk, who like Jobs and many others before him, think big and inspire employees and others to (attempt to) do "impossible" things. But what's wrong with pointing out when reality is out of alignment when their predictions or promises?
(and "wannabe Iron Man" is pretty funny, even if it should be "wannabe Tony Stark." Is there any doubt that Musk (and plenty of other big ego, high octane guys) think "yeah, that's me" when watching Morton Downey Jr. doing amazing tech stuff in Marvel movies?)
That’s not right. Every company is required to prove that they can produce what they claim, which is why many don’t make a claim. Every time Apple doesn’t meat expectations in sales, they get hammered, and they didn’t even claim some number. If a company make a claim, and doesn’t meet it, they get hammered. Tesla made a claim, if they can’t prove they they can meet that claim, by actually doing so, they will get hammered. Much of the price of their stock right has this 500,000 number built into the current, and future stock price. If they can only build 300,000 next year, that amount will be ripped,out of the price.
the reason he’s offering some of the worst junk bonds in history is because he’s desperate for cash. And this also shows why conservatives are always wrong about big tax breaks for these exceedingly wealthy individuals. If he wanted to, he could take some of that wealth he’s gotten from owning a large share of his companies stock, and financed it himself right now, without those bonds, or just bought the bonds up,himself. But people like that almost never invest their own money in their companies that way.
Again, why does Tesla have to produce x-number of vehicles but other automobile companies don't? You people on this forum have been claiming Tesla is going to go under any day now since he first announced the Roadster. A fast EV is impossible blah blah blah. It's just a money grab from a shyster Yada yada yada. Now we're on their 4th car and they've created a massive and growing factory or the Model 3 and batteries. Why does no other automobile company get this sort of scrutiny or derision for having rapid growth and success? I'd think you'd be happy to see a new company and blow out expectations like Apple, to see a company that is doing what was deemed impossible, and yet all you can do is sound like any anti-Apple pundit by claiming that their success is going to end any day. I wouldn't be surprised if you've already said: I’d shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders."
Because, if you haven’t been following this, Tesla, unlike most other companies, has made a VERY big deal about increasing their manufacturing from about 50,000 cars a year, which they’ve had problems meeting, to 500,000 cars a year in 2018. Nobody in the industry believes that they can make that goal. Investors are blinded by Musk, as a personality, as many Apple users and investors had been over the years. The difference is that Apple’s goals were more easily achievable, because as they grew, they had the worlds larges contractors actually assemble their products.
tesla bought an old plant for this, and had to entirely gut it. But the time they got the plant half ready, they were already almost a year behind schedule. The model 3 also has had a lot of development problems, which are continuing. The batteries have been having serious manufacturing problems too. And the software has been soundly criticized.
the problem here is that Tesla has always lost very large amounts of money each year, and it continues to lose very large amounts. With the model 3, they are now losing even more. The biggest question with Tesla is not how big it will get, but whether is will survive at all. Soon, the environmental rebates will cease. How will that affect their sales? That’s another question. The fact that they are already so far behind schedule has prompted Tesla to enter what has become a controversial practice of trying to upgrade model 3 prepaid customers to the sports model at twice the price, offering them an $8,000 rebate to do so, which leaves the base price $70,000 vehicle still much more expensive than the bae $35,000 vehicle, but which is angering the people who are buying the higher price product as their actual choice. All because they as so far behind in production, and QC.
so, yes, they screwed up. They thought they could accept $1,000 checks from people befor product was anywhere near ready to even start production, and had received over 400,000 checks, with the surety that they would receive their car in 2018. Now that it looks as though many won’t, there’s a lawsuit. And they continue to accept new $1,000 checks.
you sarcasm isn’t needed, or appreciated. What Dell said was an off the cuff remark made by an arrogant individual at the height of success for Dell, and the nadir of Apple’s fortunes. He was asked that question by a reporter. It has nothing to do with this issue.
tesla hasn’t gotten the scrutiny that you think it has, and every other car maker has received far more. That’s why Tesla’s stock is vastly overpriced when compared to far larger, and more successful manufacturers in the industry.
Honestly, I think Tesla's best case scenario is they get bought out by one of the majors or one of the ascendant Chinese manufacturers. They have been operating with losses that are quite obviously unsustainable.
Whatever happens, Tesla's brand will retain some value.
I don't know how this will turn out, but I suspect that Elon will get a great deal of credit for lighting a fire under all of the majors in the industry, including Geely, et al, in China, some of whom will come to outcompete Tesla in the marketplace. Sadly, winning the early stages of this race may not be enough to maintain an independent Tesla as a long term player, as you have noted above.
That’s not right. Every company is required to prove that they can produce what they claim, which is why many don’t make a claim. Every time Apple doesn’t meat expectations in sales, they get hammered, and they didn’t even claim some number. If a company make a claim, and doesn’t meet it, they get hammered. Tesla made a claim, if they can’t prove they they can meet that claim, by actually doing so, they will get hammered. Much of the price of their stock right has this 500,000 number built into the current, and future stock price. If they can only build 300,000 next year, that amount will be ripped,out of the price.
the reason he’s offering some of the worst junk bonds in history is because he’s desperate for cash. And this also shows why conservatives are always wrong about big tax breaks for these exceedingly wealthy individuals. If he wanted to, he could take some of that wealth he’s gotten from owning a large share of his companies stock, and financed it himself right now, without those bonds, or just bought the bonds up,himself. But people like that almost never invest their own money in their companies that way.
Again, why does Tesla have to produce x-number of vehicles but other automobile companies don't? You people on this forum have been claiming Tesla is going to go under any day now since he first announced the Roadster. A fast EV is impossible blah blah blah. It's just a money grab from a shyster Yada yada yada. Now we're on their 4th car and they've created a massive and growing factory or the Model 3 and batteries. Why does no other automobile company get this sort of scrutiny or derision for having rapid growth and success? I'd think you'd be happy to see a new company and blow out expectations like Apple, to see a company that is doing what was deemed impossible, and yet all you can do is sound like any anti-Apple pundit by claiming that their success is going to end any day. I wouldn't be surprised if you've already said: I’d shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders."
Because, if you haven’t been following this, Tesla, unlike most other companies, has made a VERY big deal about increasing their manufacturing from about 50,000 cars a year, which they’ve had problems meeting, to 500,000 cars a year in 2018. Nobody in the industry believes that they can make that goal. Investors are blinded by Musk, as a personality, as many Apple users and investors had been over the years. The difference is that Apple’s goals were more easily achievable, because as they grew, they had the worlds larges contractors actually assemble their products.
tesla bought an old plant for this, and had to entirely gut it. But the time they got the plant half ready, they were already almost a year behind schedule. The model 3 also has had a lot of development problems, which are continuing. The batteries have been having serious manufacturing problems too. And the software has been soundly criticized.
the problem here is that Tesla has always lost very large amounts of money each year, and it continues to lose very large amounts. With the model 3, they are now losing even more. The biggest question with Tesla is not how big it will get, but whether is will survive at all. Soon, the environmental rebates will cease. How will that affect their sales? That’s another question. The fact that they are already so far behind schedule has prompted Tesla to enter what has become a controversial practice of trying to upgrade model 3 prepaid customers to the sports model at twice the price, offering them an $8,000 rebate to do so, which leaves the base price $70,000 vehicle still much more expensive than the bae $35,000 vehicle, but which is angering the people who are buying the higher price product as their actual choice. All because they as so far behind in production, and QC.
so, yes, they screwed up. They thought they could accept $1,000 checks from people befor product was anywhere near ready to even start production, and had received over 400,000 checks, with the surety that they would receive their car in 2018. Now that it looks as though many won’t, there’s a lawsuit. And they continue to accept new $1,000 checks.
you sarcasm isn’t needed, or appreciated. What Dell said was an off the cuff remark made by an arrogant individual at the height of success for Dell, and the nadir of Apple’s fortunes. He was asked that question by a reporter. It has nothing to do with this issue.
tesla hasn’t gotten the scrutiny that you think it has, and every other car maker has received far more. That’s why Tesla’s stock is vastly overpriced when compared to far larger, and more successful manufacturers in the industry.
Honestly, I think Tesla's best case scenario is they get bought out by one of the majors or one of the ascendant Chinese manufacturers. They have been operating with losses that are quite obviously unsustainable.
Whatever happens, Tesla's brand will retain some value.
I don't know how this will turn out, but I suspect that Elon will get a great deal of credit for lighting a fire under all of the majors in the industry, including Geely, et al, in China, some of whom will come to outcompete Tesla in the marketplace. Sadly, winning the early stages of this race may not be enough to maintain an independent Tesla as a long term player, as you have noted above.
I'd absolutely give Musk credit for almost singlehandedly driving auto manufacturers back to electric cars en masse after more than 100 years of half-baked efforts.
OK, I seem to recall that Tesla was a week or so ahead of schedule for the first Model 3 rolling off the assembly line. What time-based goal post was conveniently moved there?
So, you believe that Tesla will build 20,000 Model 3's a month in December, or will you fall back on Elon's supply chain disclaimers as an excuse for missing the "goalpost"?
How wide a miss will Tesla be allowed?
You made a claim and I asked you about the most recent claim with a time that past so you can point out where Musk had moved the goal posts. Instead you make a Son-Like claim about the future. I'm curious if you (and melgross) have also said that Apple is about to collapse under itself after it keeps missing its own self-imposed deadlines*. I doubt it.
Meeting a delivery schedule in July for 30 Model 3's seems to be the last goal post he met, but what about the target of 1500 in September, or how about the 20,000 a month by the end of the year?
Do you really think that he will meet those targets?
I don't.
What part of not making wild claims about the future don't you understand? Just as Apple misses self imposed deadlines and I don't take time of death (but the pundits do), I'm not going to do the same for Tesla because you say you don't think it's possible for them to hit a "target of 1500 in September." I don't care if they hit 1000, 1499, or 2000 next month. None of those numbers means the company is going under, that Tesla is a scam, and Musk is a shyster fleecing stockholders.
You people have been prognosticating Tesla's doom since the day it was founded yet they keep making more cars. You literally sound exactly like the people that come here saying Apple is doomed.
All of the comments following are in this thread, save a couple of acknowledgements of agreement. No where in there did I mention Tesla's doom other than the billion dollar a quarter burn rate of cash, and a possible future of not making profits.
Thanks for putting words in my mouth because you were too busy enabling wannabe Iron Man to actually respond with facts.
Now you can go back and stick your head in the sand and DBAD; I'm finished playing.
You've been pussyfooting and being passive-aggressive but your intent is clear with your link posting about what may happen based on this or that pundit. Even now you're calling Musk "wannabe Iron Man" which clearly shows a really odd animosity toward the man when talking about what a automobile company is doing today.
Soli, was Musk your college roommate or something? You seem very sensitive to even the mildest of criticisms of the guy and his company.
Personally, I believe the economy needs people like Musk, who like Jobs and many others before him, think big and inspire employees and others to (attempt to) do "impossible" things. But what's wrong with pointing out when reality is out of alignment when their predictions or promises?
(and "wannabe Iron Man" is pretty funny, even if it should be "wannabe Tony Stark." Is there any doubt that Musk (and plenty of other big ego, high octane guys) think "yeah, that's me" when watching Morton Downey Jr. doing amazing tech stuff in Marvel movies?)
Comments
Thanks for putting words in my mouth because you were too busy enabling wannabe Iron Man to actually respond with facts.
Now you can go back and stick your head in the sand and DBAD; I'm finished playing.
The essence of your argument is correct; there will be alternatives to ownership, and those vehicles design for shared use will have a different build and configuration than those designed for personal ownership. Overall, automaking is a declining market with too much production capacity.
As for Elon, hat tip to a guy that can create the buzz to sell EV's, but Tesla is firmly in the set of automakers not now making profits, nor likely to in the future. Tesla is no disruption in the industry. Automaking would be best described as a twilight industry that once was the driver of national economies, from manufacturing, to resource extraction, to retailing and service."
Two opposing sides of the Tesla story; your choice.
http://www.thedrive.com/tech/13737/lg-to-build-electric-vehicle-component-factory-in-michigan
LG basically delivered an engineered drive train and electronics integrated into one of GM's existing platforms to create the Bolt. Assuming that there will be autonomous driving mechatronics, telematics, electronics, and software bundles available on the market to automakers, and there will be, and understanding that auto manufacturing's entire history is built on diffusion of innovation, then what makes a successful company will be branding, design, and manufacturing prowess. Tesla, as an example, has mastered the first two, and is in the process of proving, or not, its manufacturing prowess.
I'm not seeing the difficultly of building a branded car within the supply chain, or even creating a bundle of autonomous technologies; it's expensive and time consuming, but Apple could certainly accomplish all of that. I think that there is an assumption that Apple will be late to the game if they don't have concrete plans in place to deliver a car by, let's say 2022. I don't see that, Even Toyota isn't planning on going big on EV until 2022. Current EV use in the world is a fraction of a percent of all vehicles in use, so there isn't a barrier to entry later if Apple chooses to deliver an autonomous EV.
I'm pessimistic that Apple will actually build a car, due to the low margins and profits in the industry, but I am agreement with you and others; it's still early in the development cycle for the technologies that will be required of a car.
https://cleantechnica.com/2015/02/20/nissan-says-ready-end-federal-tax-credits/
(please note my error above; that should have been 5000 a week!)
People love Elon's story, and the brand awareness is astronomical, but I'm not sure that even current Tesla owners will be so forgiving of Elon if he doesn't deliver on time, and doesn't produce a reliable product, all past problems that early adopters were more than happy to absorb.
I have no interest in a Tesla purchase or of stock ownership, but Tesla is a big part of our overheated economy in Northern Nevada, so as a naysayer, I would say to Tesla, "get your shit together:"
So, this is one of the naysayers that I follow...
https://twitter.com/Tweetermeyer
and one more
http://dailykanban.com/2016/06/tesla-suspension-breakage-not-crime-coverup/
Facts are biased, and are easily confirmed on the internet "yet they have met their goals in the past" is not the same as on time and at cost.
"Elon is King in the country of Moving Goalposts that the River Denial flows through", is not the same as "deep seated anger", so I'm guessing we're still cool?
So, you believe that Tesla will build 20,000 Model 3's a month in December, or will you fall back on Elon's supply chain disclaimers as an excuse for missing the "goalpost"?
How wide a miss will Tesla be allowed?
About Tesla Service;
http://www.autonews.com/article/20170815/BLOG06/170819883/why-this-tesla-fan-thinks-the-company-is-losing-its-way?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Here's one:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-03/tesla-falls-as-quarterly-deliveries-trail-analysts-estimates
Do you have a response to that?
Meeting a delivery schedule in July for 30 Model 3's seems to be the last goal post he met, but what about the target of 1500 in September, or how about the 20,000 a month by the end of the year?
Do you really think that he will meet those targets?
I don't.
Soli, was Musk your college roommate or something? You seem very sensitive to even the mildest of criticisms of the guy and his company.
Personally, I believe the economy needs people like Musk, who like Jobs and many others before him, think big and inspire employees and others to (attempt to) do "impossible" things. But what's wrong with pointing out when reality is out of alignment when their predictions or promises?
(and "wannabe Iron Man" is pretty funny, even if it should be "wannabe Tony Stark." Is there any doubt that Musk (and plenty of other big ego, high octane guys) think "yeah, that's me" when watching Morton Downey Jr. doing amazing tech stuff in Marvel movies?)
This argument is not very plausible. According to this logic an auto maker would make their current product less market-competitive by removing Car Play if they believed that Apple is working on a car. Even if that thought was entertained, it would make no logical business sense. Even if every car maker dropped Car Play it would have a less than negligible impact on Apple's earnings and potential R&D budget. Therefore why should Ford (for example) shoot themselves in the foot by dumping Car Play? And then to toss ride-hailing companies into the argument!? So Uber is going to remove its app from the App Store because Apple might get into that market 5 years from now? That would be the greatest gift to Lyft that Uber could ever give. Uber and Apple have a nice business arrangement and neither is going to spoil it just because they may compete in the future.
Did you even read what I wrote? Personally, I'm not criticizing Musk for his "big ego." Hell, I don't even know the guy, maybe he's the most humble, generous guy in the world. I'm not a psychologist, so I use "big ego" as shorthand for "someone who believes they can change the world, personally." I'm pretty sure THAT applies to Musk, and, as I said, we need people like that.
You're the one who seems to have an obsession with the guy. Go back and read message 87 in this thread where you attribute "deep seeded anger" to melgross for pointing out facts about the Series 3 history. You're the one who seems to be bringing the emotion to this discussion.
The media almost unanimously glorify Telsa and Musk at every turn. What's wrong with pointing out that Tesla as a company hasn't actually proven that they can make any money (while acknowledging that many, many people lust after their groundbreaking products). It's a weak analogy, but there are parallels with Delorean from an earlier era. You can think a stainless steel car is super cool and stylish and still accept that a company kept afloat with drug money probably isn't a great business.
2) Again, this "not making any money" is the exact BS we heard about Apple while it was growing their business and about Amazon every quarter, yet it seems like the same people that are anti-Tesla and oddly making it a personal attack against Musk were the same ones that were pro-Apple. Based on your logic neither Apple nor Amazon should exist today so why are Tmay and Melgross ignoring what Tesla havedone and prognosticating about how Tesla is absolutely doomed in the near future? I don't care about Musk. I don't care about possible dystopian scenario these guys are predicting. All I care about are the products they are producing right now. Did any of you once say that Apple is going to fail when they've missed innumerable self-imposed deadlines and had backorders for more product than I can even remember? I seriously doubt it and none of you have shown me any evidence that buying a Tesla is a bad purchase over a Prius.
1) LOL. Yeah, ok. Sorry that I accused you of that?
2) Again with the overreaction. I personally don't have much of an opinion about Tesla as a company or Elon Musk as a guy; and everyone I know who has an opinion about their cars think they are AMAZING. But why can't we dispassionately discuss the current health of Telsa as a company? Personally, I was very skeptical of Amazon for the many, many years that it operated in the red, but they have executed a bold strategy very effectively and are now the dominate player in retail AND in cloud IT. Good for them. Maybe Tesla will be the most successful and profitable car company on the planet in the future. Why can't we discuss the facts about the company today to help understand if that's likely or not without insulting each other?
Also, I don't think anyone here cares whether you (or anyone else) buy a Tesla or a Prius. This isn't a car review forum. If you have the money and want what a Tesla provides, knock yourself out. My friends will be envious.
did I miss anything?
did you read the articles I linked to? If you did, you’d see how he moved the goalposts. Most of their products have been late, with numerous problems.
Apple doesn’t say that they are going to sell a specific number of units in a given time. They don’t give fairly precise numbers as to monthly and yearly production. It’s very different. The only time when Apple did that was back in 2006 when Jobs was asked how many phones he thought Apple would sell, and he said 10 million in a year. They sold 13.5 million that year, so even there, Apple did better than they stated.
but the opposite is true for Tesla. Musk made what have been considered to be outrageous claims, and it looks as though they won’t come close to those claims. In fact, he’s already blaming suppliers for the coming shortfall in production. So he doesn’t seem to think they will make production either. And employees are complaining about high accident levels in the plant because they’re being pushed to speed production. An investigation might take place.
i never said that Tesla itself is a scam. I am saying that his constant habit of claiming things that he can’t do are causing problems for the company. And he does things he shouldn’t, such as continuing to take people’s pre production checks. Originally, those people were promised delivery in 2018, but that will never happen for many, or even most of those customers.
he does the same thing with SpaceX, making claims about the company landing missions on Mars, and starting colonies in just a few years, at cost levels that are less than 10% of costs estimated by other people in the field. People have backed his claims on various sites, and if you said that it would never happen, you were flamed. Well, now he’s had to retract all of those claims. This is what he does. He’s a publicity hound.
http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/8/20/winner-takes-all
I don't know how this will turn out, but I suspect that Elon will get a great deal of credit for lighting a fire under all of the majors in the industry, including Geely, et al, in China, some of whom will come to outcompete Tesla in the marketplace. Sadly, winning the early stages of this race may not be enough to maintain an independent Tesla as a long term player, as you have noted above.