KGI: iPhone 8 sales in line with expectations, analysts overplay short Apple store lines

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 47
    Rayz2016Rayz2016 Posts: 6,957member
    asdasd said:


    If people think that Apple wants to keep ASP at about mid $600s this year then it has to sell significantly more lower priced models, given the supposed pre orders for the X. Selling the same number of 8 and X devices, as were sold of the 7 series last year, will otherwise push that price materially higher. 

    ASP on its own butters no parsnips, by the way,   a company could sell one device at $10,000 and go bust. 


    Yup, and a company selling six billion smartphones for 10 cents a pop wouldn’t last that much longer. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 42 of 47
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 7,488member
    brucemc said:
    avon b7 said:
    As a non shareholder and non Apple executive, I don't care about how many 8 series phones have been sold or the ASP or the share price.

    The most important thing is to move more units overall, as the bigger base of active hardware will provide a bigger base to feed off with extra services.

    It also helps when it comes to services that require negotiation with third parties. The bigger your installed base, the bigger your leverage.

    Right now we are seeing the biggest product and price spread in Apple's handset business, ever.

    The lower your budget, the older the hardware you get (or smaller screen) but at least you now have many options on price. It's a reasonable first step and allows Apple to squeeze the most out of their product investments.

    I dumped iPhones for the lack of a nice spread on product and price options. No doubt this new move will help retain some users who are in the same situation as I was.

    As long as they sell units in larger quantities, factoring out the impact of the supercycle, they will reap the benefits even if the ASP comes down. I doesn't matter if the 8 series is not as successful as the 6 or 7 series. What counts is the global picture because now, that picture is bigger than ever.

    Wall Street and shareholders might not be happy but users and the platform itself will.
    For someone who thinks they are very smart, you show a FUNDAMENTAL misunderstanding Apple's business model, its product focus, its goals, how it makes money, and how it has the largest cash flow of any company on earth.
    You mean Apple's past business model. This is a new approach.
  • Reply 43 of 47
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,238member
    78Bandit said:
    tmay said:
    sog35 said:
    avon b7 said:
    As a non shareholder and non Apple executive, I don't care about how many 8 series phones have been sold or the ASP or the share price.

    The most important thing is to move more units overall, as the bigger base of active hardware will provide a bigger base to feed off with extra services.

    It also helps when it comes to services that require negotiation with third parties. The bigger your installed base, the bigger your leverage.

    Right now we are seeing the biggest product and price spread in Apple's handset business, ever.

    The lower your budget, the older the hardware you get (or smaller screen) but at least you now have many options on price. It's a reasonable first step and allows Apple to squeeze the most out of their product investments.

    I dumped iPhones for the lack of a nice spread on product and price options. No doubt this new move will help retain some users who are in the same situation as I was.

    As long as they sell units in larger quantities, factoring out the impact of the supercycle, they will reap the benefits even if the ASP comes down. I doesn't matter if the 8 series is not as successful as the 6 or 7 series. What counts is the global picture because now, that picture is bigger than ever.

    Wall Street and shareholders might not be happy but users and the platform itself will.
    "The most important thing is to move more units overall, as the bigger base of active hardware will provide a bigger base to feed off with extra services."

    this is absolute and 100% bunk.

    The most important thing is NOT market share for Apple. That is flatout ridiculous.  Focusing on market share is a race to the bottom.  Apple will not sell JUNK just to increase unit sales.

    Go look at Xiaomi.  Once the 'Apple Killer' now is in the dumps.  Xiaomi like many other Android sellers focus on unit sales.
    Data shows that Apple iPhone sales continue to grow at the same rate, over time, and that ASP continues at about $650 plus the rate of inflation. I've had people here tell me that it is "common knowledge" that Apple's iPhone sales rate is slowing, but the trend line data does not show that. If there's a slump, then it's followed by a supercycle, but it all follows the same trend line.

    You almost want to believe that Apple is fine tuning its product line to accomplish that.
    The trend line I've seen shows unit sales growth stagnated after the release of the iPhone 6.  Every year from 2007 to 2014 had significant growth.  Sure, some years were higher than others but even in the S update years growth was still in the double digits.  The last three years have been relatively level at right around 225 million every year.  Even looking at revenue it is obvious the growth rate has slowed a lot since the last big jump with the release of the iPhone 6.  ASP has gone up some, but nowhere near enough to offset the stagnant unit sales.

    Maybe the X will turn things around, but I haven't seen data that indicates anything but slowing growth in both units and revenue since the September 30, 2014 quarter end.
    Sales were strong in 2015. Essentially, iPhone sales have been down in 2016 yoy and flat yoy afaik in 2017.

    New products, new low end product pricing, dollar is weaker, Europe is making an economic comeback, and the only real driver left to deal with is China. So question is whether Q1 2018 will see exceptional growth again, or whether it will be delayed until 2nd and 3rd quarters by people waiting for iPhone X.
  • Reply 44 of 47
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    Rayz2016 said:
    asdasd said:


    If people think that Apple wants to keep ASP at about mid $600s this year then it has to sell significantly more lower priced models, given the supposed pre orders for the X. Selling the same number of 8 and X devices, as were sold of the 7 series last year, will otherwise push that price materially higher. 

    ASP on its own butters no parsnips, by the way,   a company could sell one device at $10,000 and go bust. 


    Yup, and a company selling six billion smartphones for 10 cents a pop wouldn’t last that much longer. 
    I don't see anyone arguing for that, though. 
  • Reply 45 of 47
    tmay said:
    78Bandit said:
    tmay said:
    sog35 said:
    avon b7 said:
    As a non shareholder and non Apple executive, I don't care about how many 8 series phones have been sold or the ASP or the share price.

    The most important thing is to move more units overall, as the bigger base of active hardware will provide a bigger base to feed off with extra services.

    It also helps when it comes to services that require negotiation with third parties. The bigger your installed base, the bigger your leverage.

    Right now we are seeing the biggest product and price spread in Apple's handset business, ever.

    The lower your budget, the older the hardware you get (or smaller screen) but at least you now have many options on price. It's a reasonable first step and allows Apple to squeeze the most out of their product investments.

    I dumped iPhones for the lack of a nice spread on product and price options. No doubt this new move will help retain some users who are in the same situation as I was.

    As long as they sell units in larger quantities, factoring out the impact of the supercycle, they will reap the benefits even if the ASP comes down. I doesn't matter if the 8 series is not as successful as the 6 or 7 series. What counts is the global picture because now, that picture is bigger than ever.

    Wall Street and shareholders might not be happy but users and the platform itself will.
    "The most important thing is to move more units overall, as the bigger base of active hardware will provide a bigger base to feed off with extra services."

    this is absolute and 100% bunk.

    The most important thing is NOT market share for Apple. That is flatout ridiculous.  Focusing on market share is a race to the bottom.  Apple will not sell JUNK just to increase unit sales.

    Go look at Xiaomi.  Once the 'Apple Killer' now is in the dumps.  Xiaomi like many other Android sellers focus on unit sales.
    Data shows that Apple iPhone sales continue to grow at the same rate, over time, and that ASP continues at about $650 plus the rate of inflation. I've had people here tell me that it is "common knowledge" that Apple's iPhone sales rate is slowing, but the trend line data does not show that. If there's a slump, then it's followed by a supercycle, but it all follows the same trend line.

    You almost want to believe that Apple is fine tuning its product line to accomplish that.
    The trend line I've seen shows unit sales growth stagnated after the release of the iPhone 6.  Every year from 2007 to 2014 had significant growth.  Sure, some years were higher than others but even in the S update years growth was still in the double digits.  The last three years have been relatively level at right around 225 million every year.  Even looking at revenue it is obvious the growth rate has slowed a lot since the last big jump with the release of the iPhone 6.  ASP has gone up some, but nowhere near enough to offset the stagnant unit sales.

    Maybe the X will turn things around, but I haven't seen data that indicates anything but slowing growth in both units and revenue since the September 30, 2014 quarter end.
    Sales were strong in 2015. Essentially, iPhone sales have been down in 2016 yoy and flat yoy afaik in 2017.

    New products, new low end product pricing, dollar is weaker, Europe is making an economic comeback, and the only real driver left to deal with is China. So question is whether Q1 2018 will see exceptional growth again, or whether it will be delayed until 2nd and 3rd quarters by people waiting for iPhone X.
    There is, of course, a third possibility.  The return to significant growth may not materialize at all and Apple may find itself at market saturation with flat or even declining unit sales despite the redesign of the iPhone X.

    A $1,000 phone is quite a leap for a lot of the traditional Apple customers.  ASP is currently running just under $700.  At a starting price 45% more than the current average, my personal feeling is less than 25% of new iPhone purchasers will opt for the X.  True, there is built-in demand for some people who want the newest and most exclusive phone, but ultimately Apple is going to need the 8, the 7, and the SE to provide the bulk of sales for the coming year.

    The X will likely provide a one-time bump in revenue growth, but once the demand for a $1,000 phone is satiated in the first year Apple is going to need to find a way to keep the customers who want a $500 - $600 phone if they have any hope of growth.  Apple needs to make fresh, current design phones in that price range or risk becoming a luxury goods manufacturer satisfied with a smaller but more affluent customer base.

    Hopefully the cost and complexity of the AMOLED screen and the Face ID camera can be overcome and we'll see a broader range of models from Apple next year that have wider appeal.
  • Reply 46 of 47
    Sent from my 1 hour old iPhone 8 Plus!! I preordered mine on 9/15 and got the call at 3pm today.
    pscooter63watto_cobra
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