¿Cut to 50 percent of WHAT?
It is entirely possible that initial production levels of iPhone 8 were originally set 'stupidly HIGH' -- to hedge the possibility that NO iPhone X units would be available before Christmas.
This iPhone 8 cut could be really good news -- it could mean iPhone X is no longer in trouble. Apple could be cancelling its 'stupidly high' hedge of massive numbers of iPhone 8 and going with "regular" production amounts.
I'm likely skipping both new iPhones this year for several reasons:
My iPhone 7 Plus is great and I was wondering if I'd update this year even before anything was announced
I want Qi charging but it does mean buying charging pads (very minor issue), AirPad isn't available until next year (medium issue), and it's unknown which 3rd-party Qi chargers will support the iPhone 8 series and X, or the Apple Watch (major issue).
I prefer the size of the Plus so going to an iPhone X means going back down to a smaller overall device, especially on the one display axis. There's evidence that a Plus size of the X design is possible next year.
I just bought a 5th gen Apple TV ($180) and a Series 3 Watch with LTE ($430 + another $50 for AppleCare+) which means I'll hopefully be spending less time carrying and therefore less time using my iPhone 7 Plus, and in terms of cost I also have about a $14/month Verizon fee (which includes taxes) and I'm also trying out Apple Music as I shift my dependance onto the Watch. (There's a 3 month grace period with Verizon and a 3-month free trial with Apple Music).
I am very pleased with my iPhone 7 Plus... and it seems to me that the iPhone 8 phones are more of same... just a bit better. So I'm not interested, even though I'm on the 2-year, possible-upgrade payment plan.
Good as it is, I would not buy an iPhone 8-series model now unless I really needed a replacement immediately.
The iPhone X promises to be next-generation, with new technologies like 3D mapping and a new look. If I needed a new phone, I'd go with that if I could wait a month or so.
For myself, advising a friend, part of the trouble is the "Memory gap": Where it jumps from 64Gb @ $700 to 256Gb @ $850.
The 64Gb is too small for her. The 256Gb is too expensive for her.
So, she keeps using the iPhone 5 I gave her when her iPhone 6 was stolen.
1) She bought an iPhone 6 so we can assume that if she didn't get hers stolen and you give her a hand-me-down she's be using it for 3 years, going on 4 now. Rounding down to 3 years that's only $50 per year to get the capacity that she needs to support her excessive data use, which I assume is a bunch of music she can't possibly listen to.
2) So instead of Apple's previous solution of $100 for doubling the capacity they double it twice for twice the cost, which comes out to being a substantially lower cost at only 78¢ per GB, whereas she's willing to pay double that at $1.56 per GB. And that's before we consider that Apple could've kept the entry-level at 32GB and made 128GB an upper tier which would've cost her even more had NAND prices not been where they are for this release, which shows that it's a psychological issue, not a financial one.
3) Considering points 1 and 2 that means in 3 years time she's only spending $50 more what she's willing to pay, which is under $17 a year, or $1.38 per month. Is that really worth sticking with an iPhone that's over 5 year old? Personally, that sounds like a ridiculous line in the sand to draw.
Statistics don't change facts -- just justify arguments. ... You're argument is she should buy an 8 and you justified/rationalized that. ... The fact is, she doesn't want to spend that much on an iPhone.
¿Cut to 50 percent of WHAT?
It is entirely possible that initial production levels of iPhone 8 were originally set 'stupidly HIGH' -- to hedge the possibility that NO iPhone X units would be available before Christmas.
This iPhone 8 cut could be really good news -- it could mean iPhone X is no longer in trouble. Apple could be cancelling its 'stupidly high' hedge of massive numbers of iPhone 8 and going with "regular" production amounts.
That's a good question. It could be a stupidly high number or it could be well planned number of extra assembly lines because of the two iPhone release this year and/or the iPhone X. If I were running this operation I'd likely want to produce more of the iPhone 8 series in that extra 2 month window before the iPhone X was released so I'd have surplus when I switch my finite number of assembly lines over to support another iPhone model. For all we know this is more or less than they anticipated based on demand and/or component availability and/or production complexity/speed. There are just too many variables for someone to come in and say the iPhone 8 series isn't selling well based on looking at that end of the elephant.
During the most recent Xmas quarter, Apple sold slightly fewer than 80 million iPhones, about 900,000 a day. Obligingly, a day has 86,400 seconds, so we round up to 90,000 to get a production yield of ten iPhones per second.
But producing a phone isn’t instantaneous, it isn’t like the click of the shutter in a high-speed camera. Let’s assume that it takes about 15 minutes (rounded up to 1,000 seconds) to assemble a single iPhone. How many parallel production pipes need to accumulate ten phones a second? 1,000 divided by 1/10 equals…10,000! Ten thousand parallel pipes in order to output ten phones per second.
We can juggle the numbers, but it’s still difficult to comprehend the scale and complexity of the iPhone production machine, to build a reliable mental representation.
I could see this as happening. This is purely anecdotal but I don't know a single person with an iPhone 8. Everyone either is sticking with their current iPhone or wanting to wait to see what the X actually has going for it. No one seems to care about wireless charging. Everyone that wasn't a die hard Apple ecosystem person went to Android if wireless charging was a big deal. If they wanted it and are part of the Apple Ecosystem then they are wanting the better phone so waiting for X. Doesn't leave a lot of demand for the 8.
Just my opinion and not hating on Apple.
1) I know plenty of people who have received and ordered the iPhone 8. It hasn't even been on the market a month.
2) Qi charging is a big deal, but that doesn't mean it's worth jumping to an entirely new platform, much less one that's less secure and unlikely to get regular updates.
3) The iPhone 8 is a huge YoY update over the iPhone 7 series.
It IS a huge update over the 7. I fully agree. ... But, for most (average) users, they just don't need all that power -- yet.
Well, the Apple Store where I am still doesn’t have the AT&T iPhone 8 I’m interested in or the sim-free my wife needs in stock. US Cellular was also sold out at every location we visited (my wife’s carrier).
Somehow I doubt they have too many phones already...
For myself, advising a friend, part of the trouble is the "Memory gap": Where it jumps from 64Gb @ $700 to 256Gb @ $850.
The 64Gb is too small for her. The 256Gb is too expensive for her.
So, she keeps using the iPhone 5 I gave her when her iPhone 6 was stolen.
That’s just silly. The 8 is so far beyond the 5. If she doesn’t want an 8 why not an SE. same dimensions as the 5 too.
Everyone waiting for an X will be sadly disappointed. Both in the wait time (they’ll never get one for xmas) and version 1 of a new device. I’m grabbing an 8 in a few days.
Ok, it's silly. But it's what she feels and, guess what? She can be as silly as she wants.
For myself, advising a friend, part of the trouble is the "Memory gap": Where it jumps from 64Gb @ $700 to 256Gb @ $850.
The 64Gb is too small for her. The 256Gb is too expensive for her.
So, she keeps using the iPhone 5 I gave her when her iPhone 6 was stolen.
This rumor could be complete BS but with the increase in price of the 8 and the 7 still being a really good phone plus the existence of the X, I can see where there might be less interest in the 8. I wonder what Apple’s expectations are for the 8.
It seems to me to be a transition device: -- More powerful than today's apps can fully exploit -- so it's built to exploit tomorow's software (AI/AR). -- Not up to standards of their future direction -- which is the X.
For myself, advising a friend, part of the trouble is the "Memory gap": Where it jumps from 64Gb @ $700 to 256Gb @ $850.
The 64Gb is too small for her. The 256Gb is too expensive for her.
So, she keeps using the iPhone 5 I gave her when her iPhone 6 was stolen.
1) She bought an iPhone 6 so we can assume that if she didn't get hers stolen and you give her a hand-me-down she's be using it for 3 years, going on 4 now. Rounding down to 3 years that's only $50 per year to get the capacity that she needs to support her excessive data use, which I assume is a bunch of music she can't possibly listen to.
2) So instead of Apple's previous solution of $100 for doubling the capacity they double it twice for twice the cost, which comes out to being a substantially lower cost at only 78¢ per GB, whereas she's willing to pay double that at $1.56 per GB. And that's before we consider that Apple could've kept the entry-level at 32GB and made 128GB an upper tier which would've cost her even more had NAND prices not been where they are for this release, which shows that it's a psychological issue, not a financial one.
3) Considering points 1 and 2 that means in 3 years time she's only spending $50 more what she's willing to pay, which is under $17 a year, or $1.38 per month. Is that really worth sticking with an iPhone that's over 5 year old? Personally, that sounds like a ridiculous line in the sand to draw.
Statistics don't change facts -- just justify arguments. ... You're argument is she should buy an 8 and you justified/rationalized that. ... The fact is, she doesn't want to spend that much on an iPhone.
Sorry, facts win.
Facts do win, hence my calculations on the matter. Her not wanting to pay an extra $50 for another 128GB for another whatever her likely duration is an entirely different matter to which she has every right to make sophistic decisions, but it's not "facts" that are keeping her from buying, it's psychology. If you don't think so then you need to look into why products—which include nearly everything Apple sells—end in a 9 instead of being rounded to the nearest dollar -or- you can argue why $1 is a deal breaker for and 99¢ is perfectly reasonable.
This year Apple has the broadest line of iPhones they’ve ever had, from five models last year to eight this year, once the X begins shipping. Between those waiting to order an X and those taking advantage of life wer prices across much of the line, it’s reasonable to expect meaningful reduction in demand for the 8/8+ versus the 7/7+ last year.
The question is really, where is demand for iPhone this year versus past years? As long as demand remains strong for iPhone (the entire line, in aggregate) then I expect the higher end, higher priced models will outweigh any drag on revenue from Apple having a broader array of lower-priced models on sale. That and increased demand for lower priced models resulting in higher overall sales volumes of those. Apple is skating to where the puck will be, in six to nine months, when X production is in balance with demand. Perhaps, in the fullness of time, Apple will have sold more overall units while also retaining or even increasing ASPs, averaged over the full period from launch of the 8/repricing of the full broadened line to that day in the future when X supply is in balance with demand. Apple doesn’t play the game to be ahead at the end of each quarter; they play a longer game than Wall St.
For myself, advising a friend, part of the trouble is the "Memory gap": Where it jumps from 64Gb @ $700 to 256Gb @ $850.
The 64Gb is too small for her. The 256Gb is too expensive for her.
So, she keeps using the iPhone 5 I gave her when her iPhone 6 was stolen.
That’s just silly. The 8 is so far beyond the 5. If she doesn’t want an 8 why not an SE. same dimensions as the 5 too.
Everyone waiting for an X will be sadly disappointed. Both in the wait time (they’ll never get one for xmas) and version 1 of a new device. I’m grabbing an 8 in a few days.
Ridiculous comment about the X and how people will be “sadly disappointed” because it’s V1 of a new device, so you are going with the 8. HELLO! The 8 is also a new device! Where did you people get your education?
For myself, advising a friend, part of the trouble is the "Memory gap": Where it jumps from 64Gb @ $700 to 256Gb @ $850.
The 64Gb is too small for her. The 256Gb is too expensive for her.
So, she keeps using the iPhone 5 I gave her when her iPhone 6 was stolen.
That’s just silly. The 8 is so far beyond the 5. If she doesn’t want an 8 why not an SE. same dimensions as the 5 too.
Everyone waiting for an X will be sadly disappointed. Both in the wait time (they’ll never get one for xmas) and version 1 of a new device. I’m grabbing an 8 in a few days.
Ridiculous comment about the X and how people will be “sadly disappointed” because it’s V1 of a new device, so you are going with the 8. HELLO! The 8 is also a new device! Where did you people get your education?
We've seen that superficial thinking since the iPhone 3GS (at least with the iPhone line) and I'm sure we'll see more of it as I think the exterior look will change even less as the Qi charging and nearly edge-to-edge(2x) display will dictate the appearance of the device even more.
That said, in this case there is a case to be made by spliff monkey as there's more than just evolution as there are lateral shifts in major display technologies, a usage concern with the removal of Touch ID, and a potential usage and security issue with Face ID (especially if you have a twin), and even an issue of desire with curved display corners and a notch which some people have clearly rallied against (just as Blackberry users, for example, couldn't wrap their head around a smartphone without a physical QWERTY keyboard).
For myself, advising a friend, part of the trouble is the "Memory gap": Where it jumps from 64Gb @ $700 to 256Gb @ $850.
The 64Gb is too small for her. The 256Gb is too expensive for her.
So, she keeps using the iPhone 5 I gave her when her iPhone 6 was stolen.
1) She bought an iPhone 6 so we can assume that if she didn't get hers stolen and you give her a hand-me-down she's be using it for 3 years, going on 4 now. Rounding down to 3 years that's only $50 per year to get the capacity that she needs to support her excessive data use, which I assume is a bunch of music she can't possibly listen to.
2) So instead of Apple's previous solution of $100 for doubling the capacity they double it twice for twice the cost, which comes out to being a substantially lower cost at only 78¢ per GB, whereas she's willing to pay double that at $1.56 per GB. And that's before we consider that Apple could've kept the entry-level at 32GB and made 128GB an upper tier which would've cost her even more had NAND prices not been where they are for this release, which shows that it's a psychological issue, not a financial one.
3) Considering points 1 and 2 that means in 3 years time she's only spending $50 more what she's willing to pay, which is under $17 a year, or $1.38 per month. Is that really worth sticking with an iPhone that's over 5 year old? Personally, that sounds like a ridiculous line in the sand to draw.
Statistics don't change facts -- just justify arguments. ... You're argument is she should buy an 8 and you justified/rationalized that. ... The fact is, she doesn't want to spend that much on an iPhone.
Sorry, facts win.
Facts do win, hence my calculations on the matter. Her not wanting to pay an extra $50 for another 128GB for another whatever her likely duration is an entirely different matter to which she has every right to make sophistic decisions, but it's not "facts" that are keeping her from buying, it's psychology. If you don't think so then you need to look into why products—which include nearly everything Apple sells—end in a 9 instead of being rounded to the nearest dollar -or- you can argue why $1 is a deal breaker for and 99¢ is perfectly reasonable.
Sorry... You site statistics The FACT is, she doesn't want to pay that much.
For myself, advising a friend, part of the trouble is the "Memory gap": Where it jumps from 64Gb @ $700 to 256Gb @ $850.
The 64Gb is too small for her. The 256Gb is too expensive for her.
So, she keeps using the iPhone 5 I gave her when her iPhone 6 was stolen.
1) She bought an iPhone 6 so we can assume that if she didn't get hers stolen and you give her a hand-me-down she's be using it for 3 years, going on 4 now. Rounding down to 3 years that's only $50 per year to get the capacity that she needs to support her excessive data use, which I assume is a bunch of music she can't possibly listen to.
2) So instead of Apple's previous solution of $100 for doubling the capacity they double it twice for twice the cost, which comes out to being a substantially lower cost at only 78¢ per GB, whereas she's willing to pay double that at $1.56 per GB. And that's before we consider that Apple could've kept the entry-level at 32GB and made 128GB an upper tier which would've cost her even more had NAND prices not been where they are for this release, which shows that it's a psychological issue, not a financial one.
3) Considering points 1 and 2 that means in 3 years time she's only spending $50 more what she's willing to pay, which is under $17 a year, or $1.38 per month. Is that really worth sticking with an iPhone that's over 5 year old? Personally, that sounds like a ridiculous line in the sand to draw.
Statistics don't change facts -- just justify arguments. ... You're argument is she should buy an 8 and you justified/rationalized that. ... The fact is, she doesn't want to spend that much on an iPhone.
Sorry, facts win.
Facts do win, hence my calculations on the matter. Her not wanting to pay an extra $50 for another 128GB for another whatever her likely duration is an entirely different matter to which she has every right to make sophistic decisions, but it's not "facts" that are keeping her from buying, it's psychology. If you don't think so then you need to look into why products—which include nearly everything Apple sells—end in a 9 instead of being rounded to the nearest dollar -or- you can argue why $1 is a deal breaker for and 99¢ is perfectly reasonable.
Sorry... You site statistics The FACT is, she doesn't want to pay that much.
Right. I said that, but that's not the point. If I try to sell you a $50k car for $1 and you say you won't pay a penny more than 99¢ it's then a FACT that you'll only pay up to 99¢, but that doesn't mean it's a reasonable action on your part.
I upgraded from the 6 to the 8. I’m not waiting for the X. I know two other people that got the 8. The 8 will do just fine. The bleeding edge folks will get the X.
It is entirely probable the 8-series are seeing lower sales than if they were the only new iPhones. I don't think anyone can argue that probably a sizeable portion that might have upgraded to the 8's are waiting for X. I would call that a no brainer.
You would have to think that, with Apple having a line-up with 5 models, that some would choose the lower priced models, especially the 7-series. My daughter picked up a 7+ for $0, with my wife having to increase her data plan to add her (overall, considering a new phone would have caused increase costs anyways, it is a hell of a deal). So, is Apple concerned if someone chooses the 7 over the 8? Not too much. Perhaps more likely they will upgrade earlier then (in the future) than if they had of purchased the 8. Margin likely close to same.
Over the course of a year, these things work themselves out. The 8 is a great phone, with some cosmetic changes (all class design), and very impressive tech under the hood (inductive charging, much faster, better pictures, better video, etc).
For myself, advising a friend, part of the trouble is the "Memory gap": Where it jumps from 64Gb @ $700 to 256Gb @ $850.
The 64Gb is too small for her. The 256Gb is too expensive for her.
So, she keeps using the iPhone 5 I gave her when her iPhone 6 was stolen.
1) She bought an iPhone 6 so we can assume that if she didn't get hers stolen and you give her a hand-me-down she's be using it for 3 years, going on 4 now. Rounding down to 3 years that's only $50 per year to get the capacity that she needs to support her excessive data use, which I assume is a bunch of music she can't possibly listen to.
2) So instead of Apple's previous solution of $100 for doubling the capacity they double it twice for twice the cost, which comes out to being a substantially lower cost at only 78¢ per GB, whereas she's willing to pay double that at $1.56 per GB. And that's before we consider that Apple could've kept the entry-level at 32GB and made 128GB an upper tier which would've cost her even more had NAND prices not been where they are for this release, which shows that it's a psychological issue, not a financial one.
3) Considering points 1 and 2 that means in 3 years time she's only spending $50 more what she's willing to pay, which is under $17 a year, or $1.38 per month. Is that really worth sticking with an iPhone that's over 5 year old? Personally, that sounds like a ridiculous line in the sand to draw.
Statistics don't change facts -- just justify arguments. ... You're argument is she should buy an 8 and you justified/rationalized that. ... The fact is, she doesn't want to spend that much on an iPhone.
Sorry, facts win.
It’s not facts, it’s silly emotion. The iphone 5 only had up to 64gb storage. so she’s going to use a 5 with only 64gb because the 8 with 64gb is not enough. hmmm...
For myself, advising a friend, part of the trouble is the "Memory gap": Where it jumps from 64Gb @ $700 to 256Gb @ $850.
The 64Gb is too small for her. The 256Gb is too expensive for her.
So, she keeps using the iPhone 5 I gave her when her iPhone 6 was stolen.
1) She bought an iPhone 6 so we can assume that if she didn't get hers stolen and you give her a hand-me-down she's be using it for 3 years, going on 4 now. Rounding down to 3 years that's only $50 per year to get the capacity that she needs to support her excessive data use, which I assume is a bunch of music she can't possibly listen to.
2) So instead of Apple's previous solution of $100 for doubling the capacity they double it twice for twice the cost, which comes out to being a substantially lower cost at only 78¢ per GB, whereas she's willing to pay double that at $1.56 per GB. And that's before we consider that Apple could've kept the entry-level at 32GB and made 128GB an upper tier which would've cost her even more had NAND prices not been where they are for this release, which shows that it's a psychological issue, not a financial one.
3) Considering points 1 and 2 that means in 3 years time she's only spending $50 more what she's willing to pay, which is under $17 a year, or $1.38 per month. Is that really worth sticking with an iPhone that's over 5 year old? Personally, that sounds like a ridiculous line in the sand to draw.
Statistics don't change facts -- just justify arguments. ... You're argument is she should buy an 8 and you justified/rationalized that. ... The fact is, she doesn't want to spend that much on an iPhone.
Sorry, facts win.
Facts do win, hence my calculations on the matter. Her not wanting to pay an extra $50 for another 128GB for another whatever her likely duration is an entirely different matter to which she has every right to make sophistic decisions, but it's not "facts" that are keeping her from buying, it's psychology. If you don't think so then you need to look into why products—which include nearly everything Apple sells—end in a 9 instead of being rounded to the nearest dollar -or- you can argue why $1 is a deal breaker for and 99¢ is perfectly reasonable.
Sorry... You site statistics The FACT is, she doesn't want to pay that much.
yes, he’s stating facts about what the actual cost is. you’re stating she doesn’t care about facts. so let’s cut to the chase - so what?? what is so noteworthy about your friend not wanting to study the actual facts of the cost of these devices and instead doing something largely irrational? why share this?
Comments
Good as it is, I would not buy an iPhone 8-series model now unless I really needed a replacement immediately.
The iPhone X promises to be next-generation, with new technologies like 3D mapping and a new look. If I needed a new phone, I'd go with that if I could wait a month or so.
... You're argument is she should buy an 8 and you justified/rationalized that.
... The fact is, she doesn't want to spend that much on an iPhone.
Sorry, facts win.
... But, for most (average) users, they just don't need all that power -- yet.
http://www.iphoneincanada.ca/carriers/rogers/rogers-anemic-appetite-iphone-8-iphone-x-inventory/
“What we’re seeing is sort of … anemic appetite for the iPhone 8,”
Take it for what it's worth.
Somehow I doubt they have too many phones already...
-- More powerful than today's apps can fully exploit -- so it's built to exploit tomorow's software (AI/AR).
-- Not up to standards of their future direction -- which is the X.
... No, Great Analysis!
That said, in this case there is a case to be made by spliff monkey as there's more than just evolution as there are lateral shifts in major display technologies, a usage concern with the removal of Touch ID, and a potential usage and security issue with Face ID (especially if you have a twin), and even an issue of desire with curved display corners and a notch which some people have clearly rallied against (just as Blackberry users, for example, couldn't wrap their head around a smartphone without a physical QWERTY keyboard).
You site statistics
The FACT is, she doesn't want to pay that much.
You would have to think that, with Apple having a line-up with 5 models, that some would choose the lower priced models, especially the 7-series. My daughter picked up a 7+ for $0, with my wife having to increase her data plan to add her (overall, considering a new phone would have caused increase costs anyways, it is a hell of a deal). So, is Apple concerned if someone chooses the 7 over the 8? Not too much. Perhaps more likely they will upgrade earlier then (in the future) than if they had of purchased the 8. Margin likely close to same.
Over the course of a year, these things work themselves out. The 8 is a great phone, with some cosmetic changes (all class design), and very impressive tech under the hood (inductive charging, much faster, better pictures, better video, etc).
yes, he’s stating facts about what the actual cost is. you’re stating she doesn’t care about facts. so let’s cut to the chase - so what?? what is so noteworthy about your friend not wanting to study the actual facts of the cost of these devices and instead doing something largely irrational? why share this?