The Smartphone Endgame: Who wins once shipment volumes peak?

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 62
    ivanh said:
    A good article should give quality, not quantity in number of words. Keep it short, please.
    Welcome. 
  • Reply 22 of 62

    saltyzip said:
    Lets get to the point, Apple can't keep making this ludicrous profit on its iPhones for ever, so what is the trigger point to the start of the inevitable decline?

    This article knocks android smartphone manufacturers for making just a couple of billion in profit. That is still bloody good business compared to my annual salary, if you compare it to Apples obscene profit it looks minute, but they aren't the ones being greedy and making stupid profit margins.

    Apple is trying desperately to keep punters upgrading their phones each year or two, ensuring newer models are more expensive, plus expanding the ecosystem for lock in.  They are introducing finance deals soon so I hear to encourage more people to part with more of their hard earned cash over a an easy payment period. Morally this isn't great but will help keep those premium sales and therefore easy money coming in.

    The problem for apple is the best of android and the best of apple are virtually on par with each other. 

    The core functions of a smartphone which most people use are already nailed. People won't keep paying thousands of dollars for a phone, it's chucking money down the drain.

    The same thing happened to PCs, people didn't need more and more power, they were happy with what they had.

    I think if you gave the best budget android phone to apple users they'd be surprised how good they actually are, with exception of the camera and iMessage withdrawals. 

    Yes you can buy expensive cars and expensive house phones, but most people buy what is best bang for buck and that's why android rules on the numbers. Android is in your TVs, it will be in your fridges, in your cars, your scooters, your washing machines, house alarms etc and this is where apple won't be able to compete, due to its closed nature, it relies on others to support its products with a cost to certify them. This is where the number of devices count in the long term, not how much apple stores in its money vault each quarter now, it's how windows became the OS of choice and the PC became the hardware of choice to run it. It's a marathon not a sprint and I think that's where Apples business model which is just really the iphone will come unstuck.

    Apples good times will not last, they can't stop the inevitability that the iPhone will cease to be a cash cow for them in the not too distant future.
    Behold, the future of Android — house alarms!

    Cool story bro. 

    It amazes me that people like you forget Apple has been doing this for over 40 freakin years, the entire time people saying their doom is just around the corner. 
    mwhitewatto_cobraradarthekatlolliver
  • Reply 23 of 62
    FolioFolio Posts: 540member

    Another way to see Apple’s ecosystem as nicely sketched in article is an almost spellbound loyalty, retention so high that Apple has a defacto subscription model. So with a $700 ASP, that comes to $29/month if you keep phone for two years; $19/month for three years. With a $1000 iPhone X, that’s $42/month if keeping two years, or $28/month if hold for three years. Not too bad, unless you have a family of six. That favored media label “pricey iPhone” is misplaced when seen this way. Ditto Wall Street preoccupation with ghosts of Nokia, Blackberry.

    One plausible reason iPhone X and top Samsung and Google devices were priced especially aggressively at US$1000 level in 2017 was cheaper cellular plans due to rising competition among AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, and other U.S. providers. Even so AT&T, for instance, is expected to make $20B in free cash flow this year on $160B in revenue this year, according to recent BofA Merrill Lynch report. Its subscriber base of 124 million mobile connections seems relatively small compared to Apple’s ecosystem, or especially users of Google and Facebook.

    Apple has a nice place in the middle ground. AT&T and Verizon lower populations, but significantly higher fee subscriptions than Apple’s “de facto subscription.” And FB and Google, many billions and billions but comparatively scant Average Revenue Per User.

    All these players seek high level content as well— anything to lower churn and increase dwell time. Households only have so much income. Apple, in giving maximum value with minimal distraction, seems to be in an good place. Not to be complacent, but health benefits accrued by watch, new sensors, record keeping, etc. could boost the brand in ways hard to imagine, especially when you view ecosystem as DED posited also as an incubator.

    watto_cobraradarthekatlolliver
  • Reply 24 of 62
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Folio said:

    Another way to see Apple’s ecosystem as nicely sketched in article is an almost spellbound loyalty, retention so high that Apple has a defacto subscription model. So with a $700 ASP, that comes to $29/month if you keep phone for two years; $19/month for three years. With a $1000 iPhone X, that’s $42/month if keeping two years, or $28/month if hold for three years. Not too bad, unless you have a family of six. That favored media label “pricey iPhone” is misplaced when seen this way. Ditto Wall Street preoccupation with ghosts of Nokia, Blackberry.

    One plausible reason iPhone X and top Samsung and Google devices were priced especially aggressively at US$1000 level in 2017 was cheaper cellular plans due to rising competition among AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, and other U.S. providers. Even so AT&T, for instance, is expected to make $20B in free cash flow this year on $160B in revenue this year, according to recent BofA Merrill Lynch report. Its subscriber base of 124 million mobile connections seems relatively small compared to Apple’s ecosystem, or especially users of Google and Facebook.

    Apple has a nice place in the middle ground. AT&T and Verizon lower populations, but significantly higher fee subscriptions than Apple’s “de facto subscription.” And FB and Google, many billions and billions but comparatively scant Average Revenue Per User.

    All these players seek high level content as well— anything to lower churn and increase dwell time. Households only have so much income. Apple, in giving maximum value with minimal distraction, seems to be in an good place. Not to be complacent, but health benefits accrued by watch, new sensors, record keeping, etc. could boost the brand in ways hard to imagine, especially when you view ecosystem as DED posited also as an incubator.

    You forgot the resale value, the phones are actually cheaper than Android ones once you take that into account.

    Health is a huge industry that has good margins, is ripe for a good shakup and where Google and Amazon and FB and Samsung would have a difficulty getting into because of privacy and security issues.
    watto_cobratmayradarthekatStrangeDayslolliver
  • Reply 25 of 62
    What about MS not being dead...prove it. So many American companies are run by know nothings that spout unbelievably stupid things (cough, Balmer) while even Billionaires monopolists who didn't then and don't now innovate (Gates) while open computer scientists marvel at the million lines of code supporting and ugly, outdated hardware and near useless UX (pick your Win) while we're told 'you don't know nufin'? Our country has also voted in leaders who lost their minds (reagan), didn't have one (Geo Jr) or used their undeserved positions to foment division and break laws appealing to America's lowest common ignorance (Cheeto McHole) How can DED be surprised that almost none of this makes sense? Our country is divided only ONE way, the racism, sexism and yes, even Tech reporting is only separated by one factor, and that's economic position; whats good for those in power and money is the media coverage, the wall street projection, and the political "normal", whether or not the supporting data says, fiction, treason, or insider trading...truly elitist groups are the ones telling the majority have nots how they are being screwed or being taken care of, and the only difference is if 'the little guys' believe and follow or 'Think Different'. So if you have the guts to pick a minority share product that is high quality, and you can suffer without a program or two in your business, (and can afford the higher quality and attacks without facts) then you don't have to argue with the loud, rich, fat cats that may only be yelling to motivate others to buy into moving the needle in the direction of their own bets....we're losing a lot when you count how we're viewed by the outside...Apple may be one of the few brands where worldwide America is getting that 60's vibe where our culture is worth following...and Steve's birthday is a good time be reminded of this...
    frumiuswatto_cobraradarthekat
  • Reply 26 of 62
    Oppo is doomed.

    saltyzip said:
    Apple is trying desperately to keep punters upgrading their phones each year or two, ensuring newer models are more expensive, plus expanding the ecosystem for lock in. 
    I recently bought a one year old SE, I guess that makes me immune to Apple's fabled coercion techniques.
    edited February 2018 watto_cobraandrewj5790lolliver
  • Reply 27 of 62
    The business life cycle usually includes its birth or incorporation stage, its initial growth stage, its expansion stage as it moves into new markets, its mature operation stage, and its eventual decline as consumer interest in its products wane and key employees depart. I'm betting that Apple will continue to be a disruptive force for decades to come while retaining those people most responsible for its creativity, culture of innovation and growth.
    edited February 2018 radarthekatwatto_cobra
  • Reply 28 of 62
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 3,648member
    Oppo is doomed.

    saltyzip said:
    Apple is trying desperately to keep punters upgrading their phones each year or two, ensuring newer models are more expensive, plus expanding the ecosystem for lock in. 
    I recently bought a one year old SE, I guess that makes me immune to Apple's fabled coercion techniques.
    ... And I left the platform and my wife will stay on her iPhone 6 for another year and Apple hasn't been able to pull unit growth out of any corner for the last two years.

    Maybe we are the representation of what he said. That Apple can't go on like this forever.

    It could be that even Apple is starting to realise this too because when you bought your SE, you had the biggest choice in Apple history to pick from. If the ecosystem were so sticky and users so happy, why change the model?
    edited February 2018
  • Reply 29 of 62
    croprcropr Posts: 924member
    lkrupp said:
    I really wish I knew why so many analysts and pundits are constantly predicting Apple’s downfall. Not only that but they make no apologies for the apparent glee with which they make those predictions. The Macalope over at MacWorld has made a career of taking those predictions apart piece by piece and rubbing their author’s noses in it. Yet those naysayers get more strident as time passes. Does anyone know if we see this kind of blatant bias against a company in other industries? Analysts are circling the waters now around General Electric because there’s blood in the water. In Apple’s case though the water is clear and the profits healthy, yet the sharks are still circling. Why?
    The reason is simple.  The Roman Empire eventually collapsed and so will the hegemony of Apple one day come to an end.  Only we don't know when the decline will start.  People, attracted by doom scenarios as in the movies or in religious context,  see a lot of indications for the decline.   The smartphone market has changed. It is moving from a fast growing market to a mature replacement market.  This will make it harder for Apple to justify its premium price. but it is not impossible.  Five years ago a $250 Android was a crappy phone: it lacked speed, storage, good camera, ...  If you buy now  a $250 Android phone in 2018, the difference with an iPhone has become much smaller

    The analysts in the nineties predicted the fall of Microsoft as well, and indeed Microsoft is no longer the biggest tech company in the world.   Only Microsoft did not collapse, it gradually becomes less important, remaining a very big and profitable company.   The reason is that Microsoft diversified fast enough from Windows and Office.  Some were failures (Windows Mobile) others score better (Azure).

     

    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 30 of 62
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,030moderator

    Apple is a platform building monster.  They treat everything as a platform, initially closed for internal use but eventually opened in intelligent and controlled ways to leverage their developer community, which ultimately cements the platform as an integral part of an interconnected and growing ecosystem.


    MacOS

    iOS

    iOS+ (on iPad)

    CarPlay

    Siri

    ApplePay

    Watch OS

    TVOS

    Apple Music

    Maps

    HomeKit

    HealthKit

    Metal

    Airplay

    Machine Learning

    AFS (Apple File System)

    ARKit

    NFC

    tmaywatto_cobralolliver
  • Reply 31 of 62
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,645member
    avon b7 said:
    Oppo is doomed.

    saltyzip said:
    Apple is trying desperately to keep punters upgrading their phones each year or two, ensuring newer models are more expensive, plus expanding the ecosystem for lock in. 
    I recently bought a one year old SE, I guess that makes me immune to Apple's fabled coercion techniques.
    ... And I left the platform and my wife will stay on her iPhone 6 for another year and Apple hasn't been able to pull unit growth out of any corner for the last two years.

    Maybe we are the representation of what he said. That Apple can go on like this forever.

    It could be that even Apple is starting to realise this too because when you bought your SE, you had the biggest choice in Apple history to pick from. If the ecosystem were so sticky and users so happy, why change the model?
    Another day, another chance to push that bullshit meme again.

    Apple's "model" for expansion of the iPhone line has been around since before the iPhone 4 that you won't upgrade because you "Huawei" every day.



    The only difference in Apple's "model" over the last 10 years, is that Apple added an SE 32 GB model at the $349 price point.

    Really testing the waters there.

    Please also note that ASP line...
    edited February 2018 StrangeDayswatto_cobralolliver
  • Reply 32 of 62
    I didn’t read the article but let me guess: the answer is Apple.because otherwise there would be no reason to write the article.
    avon b7singularity
  • Reply 33 of 62
    Nah....   Another misguided analysis based on hardware gadgetry and profitability...   While Apple excels at both, that is not their base.  And, it is not their future.   Instead, they sell products that "just work".   And to do that they built an entire ecosystem to enable their products to "just work".

    True, the article did mention the Apple ecosystem -- but then proceeded to marginalize it by describing it as a communications integration between different hardware platforms.   The truth is that, although it does do that, that is one of its more minor functions.

    Further:
    The obvious comparison when discussing the commoditization of smart phones is the PC world.  But the PC world is a world of gadgets all using the the same collection of component parts with nothing much to distinguish one from the other.   So, once the industry stopped growing, it started a race to bottom.
    ...  Apple with its integration of hardware, software and ecosystem simply stepped outside of that paradigm and is able to keep innovating and opening new worlds through innovation in all three areas:  hardware, software and ecosystem.
    edited February 2018 watto_cobra
  • Reply 34 of 62
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 3,648member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    Oppo is doomed.

    saltyzip said:
    Apple is trying desperately to keep punters upgrading their phones each year or two, ensuring newer models are more expensive, plus expanding the ecosystem for lock in. 
    I recently bought a one year old SE, I guess that makes me immune to Apple's fabled coercion techniques.
    ... And I left the platform and my wife will stay on her iPhone 6 for another year and Apple hasn't been able to pull unit growth out of any corner for the last two years.

    Maybe we are the representation of what he said. That Apple can go on like this forever.

    It could be that even Apple is starting to realise this too because when you bought your SE, you had the biggest choice in Apple history to pick from. If the ecosystem were so sticky and users so happy, why change the model?
    Another day, another chance to push that bullshit meme again.

    Apple's "model" for expansion of the iPhone line has been around since before the iPhone 4 that you won't upgrade because you "Huawei" every day.



    The only difference in Apple's "model" over the last 10 years, is that Apple added an SE 16 GB model at the $349 price point.

    Really testing the waters there.

    Please also note that ASP line...
    And the graph shows what I said.

    We now have the biggest iPhone spread in history. The question is, why?

    This didn't start with the iPhone 4. It is a new situation. 

    Look a little harder at the graph because the difference is there.

    The ''cheaper" models were no way near as varied as they are today (a major difference) and came with serious limitations, the first being capacity. They were effectively crippled. All part of the plan. So much so that if you even so much as dared go for an older model and looked for the capacity that was best for you, you found that capacity had mysteriously vanished from the lineup and to get it, you had to opt for the newer models. Again, all part of the plan. 

    The same was (and still is, to a point) true for size. Cheaper meant smaller and there was no way around that.

    That has all changed since September 17. Not only that, a third model was added to the mix.

    You now have something that probably meets your price, capacity, size needs whereas before, things were far more skewed against you.

    Btw, the graph is incomplete. Apple was selling the iPhone 6 32 under the radar via special promotions through select resellers in some countries in the second half of 2017.

    I can pick up an Apple sanctioned iPhone 6 32GB at an Apple Store within a Store in Barcelona today for 348€. That includes 22% sales tax. That same phone is NOT available via the Apple Spain web.

    Again, though, the question is why such a major change to bring us into 2018? If everything was hunky dory, why change a winning formula?

    Clearly someone thought this was necessary. Do you doubt that Android and Android handsets were at least part of the reason or was it a desire to shift more units, or both?

    Whichever way you look at it, these are uncharted waters for Apple.


    edited February 2018 muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 35 of 62
    I didn’t read the article but let me guess: the answer is Apple.because otherwise there would be no reason to write the article.
    translation - “concern” trolls don’t want to read any well reasoned opinions that refutes their “concern” that apple is in trouble. well done, you’ve got that head firmly planed in...the sand. 
    radarthekatwatto_cobralolliver
  • Reply 36 of 62
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    Oppo is doomed.

    saltyzip said:
    Apple is trying desperately to keep punters upgrading their phones each year or two, ensuring newer models are more expensive, plus expanding the ecosystem for lock in. 
    I recently bought a one year old SE, I guess that makes me immune to Apple's fabled coercion techniques.
    ... And I left the platform and my wife will stay on her iPhone 6 for another year and Apple hasn't been able to pull unit growth out of any corner for the last two years.

    Maybe we are the representation of what he said. That Apple can go on like this forever.

    It could be that even Apple is starting to realise this too because when you bought your SE, you had the biggest choice in Apple history to pick from. If the ecosystem were so sticky and users so happy, why change the model?
    Another day, another chance to push that bullshit meme again.

    Apple's "model" for expansion of the iPhone line has been around since before the iPhone 4 that you won't upgrade because you "Huawei" every day.



    The only difference in Apple's "model" over the last 10 years, is that Apple added an SE 16 GB model at the $349 price point.

    Really testing the waters there.

    Please also note that ASP line...
    Again, though, the question is why such a major change to bring us into 2018? If everything was hunky dory, why change a winning formula?

    Whichever way you look at it, these are uncharted waters for Apple.
    Jesus what a dumb question. Because of course the market is going to become less growth than it was in early days. Now everybody has a smartphone, the early easy growth is over. We’re entering the goldilocks period of a mature market. 

    But to suggest its because apple is doomed and the crappy knockoffs are about to take over is just hairbrained nonsense. We’ve seen this all before in the personal computing era. Profit trumps market share any day of the week. Your commodity knockoffs will never command the respect and profit that the apple original does. get over it. 
    tmaywatto_cobralolliver
  • Reply 37 of 62
    I buy that ecosystem is Apple's core focus and I'm in totally but their abandonment of modems and the general weakness of Siri are concerning in that key pieces of that ecosystem are either being let go or just not up to speed (and accuracy). 
  • Reply 38 of 62
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,645member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    Oppo is doomed.

    saltyzip said:
    Apple is trying desperately to keep punters upgrading their phones each year or two, ensuring newer models are more expensive, plus expanding the ecosystem for lock in. 
    I recently bought a one year old SE, I guess that makes me immune to Apple's fabled coercion techniques.
    ... And I left the platform and my wife will stay on her iPhone 6 for another year and Apple hasn't been able to pull unit growth out of any corner for the last two years.

    Maybe we are the representation of what he said. That Apple can go on like this forever.

    It could be that even Apple is starting to realise this too because when you bought your SE, you had the biggest choice in Apple history to pick from. If the ecosystem were so sticky and users so happy, why change the model?
    Another day, another chance to push that bullshit meme again.

    Apple's "model" for expansion of the iPhone line has been around since before the iPhone 4 that you won't upgrade because you "Huawei" every day.



    The only difference in Apple's "model" over the last 10 years, is that Apple added an SE 16 GB model at the $349 price point.

    Really testing the waters there.

    Please also note that ASP line...
    And the graph shows what I said.

    We now have the biggest iPhone spread in history. The question is, why?

    This didn't start with the iPhone 4. It is a new situation. 

    Look a little harder at the graph because the difference is there.

    The ''cheaper" models were no way near as varied as they are today (a major difference) and came with serious limitations, the first being capacity. They were effectively crippled. All part of the plan. So much so that if you even so much as dared go for an older model and looked for the capacity that was best for you, you found that capacity had mysteriously vanished from the lineup and to get it, you had to opt for the newer models. Again, all part of the plan. 

    The same was (and still is, to a point) true for size. Cheaper meant smaller and there was no way around that.

    That has all changed since September 17. Not only that, a third model was added to the mix.

    You now have something that probably meets your price, capacity, size needs whereas before, things were far more skewed against you.

    Btw, the graph is incomplete. Apple was selling the iPhone 6 32 under the radar via special promotions through select resellers in some countries in the second half of 2017.

    I can pick up an Apple sanctioned iPhone 6 32GB at an Apple Store within a Store in Barcelona today for 348€. That includes 22% sales tax. That same phone is NOT available via the Apple Spain web.

    Again, though, the question is why such a major change to bring us into 2018? If everything was hunky dory, why change a winning formula?

    Clearly someone thought this was necessary. Do you doubt that Android and Android handsets were at least part of the reason or was it a desire to shift more units, or both?

    Whichever way you look at it, these are uncharted waters for Apple.


    The answer to all of your questions is right there in the chart: 

    Look at the grey line of ASP; it trends right above $600. Keeping that ASP above $600 is Apple's primary focus, not unit sales.

    Apple was able to generate an ASP of $795 last quarter by adding the iPhone X to the mix as their best selling model. That SE 64 isn't a big seller and it isn't going to increase the ASP, but you are correct, it may allow some people to buy a new iPhone, increasing unit sales. This is the same overall strategy that Apple has been using all along, maintaining ASP, and increasing the number of price points. Why you seem to think there is some change in strategy is beyond my comprehension.

    As for the iPhone 6 32 discount, it's obvious to me that those models are being discontinued, and will be removed from the product mix before the arrival of new models in the fall. 


    edited February 2018 watto_cobralolliver
  • Reply 39 of 62
    sgnqsgnq Posts: 10member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    Oppo is doomed.

    saltyzip said:
    Apple is trying desperately to keep punters upgrading their phones each year or two, ensuring newer models are more expensive, plus expanding the ecosystem for lock in. 
    I recently bought a one year old SE, I guess that makes me immune to Apple's fabled coercion techniques.
    ... And I left the platform and my wife will stay on her iPhone 6 for another year and Apple hasn't been able to pull unit growth out of any corner for the last two years.

    Maybe we are the representation of what he said. That Apple can go on like this forever.

    It could be that even Apple is starting to realise this too because when you bought your SE, you had the biggest choice in Apple history to pick from. If the ecosystem were so sticky and users so happy, why change the model?
    Another day, another chance to push that bullshit meme again.

    Apple's "model" for expansion of the iPhone line has been around since before the iPhone 4 that you won't upgrade because you "Huawei" every day.



    The only difference in Apple's "model" over the last 10 years, is that Apple added an SE 16 GB model at the $349 price point.

    Really testing the waters there.

    Please also note that ASP line...
    And the graph shows what I said.

    We now have the biggest iPhone spread in history. The question is, why?

    This didn't start with the iPhone 4. It is a new situation. 

    Look a little harder at the graph because the difference is there.

    The ''cheaper" models were no way near as varied as they are today (a major difference) and came with serious limitations, the first being capacity. They were effectively crippled. All part of the plan. So much so that if you even so much as dared go for an older model and looked for the capacity that was best for you, you found that capacity had mysteriously vanished from the lineup and to get it, you had to opt for the newer models. Again, all part of the plan. 

    The same was (and still is, to a point) true for size. Cheaper meant smaller and there was no way around that.

    That has all changed since September 17. Not only that, a third model was added to the mix.

    You now have something that probably meets your price, capacity, size needs whereas before, things were far more skewed against you.

    Btw, the graph is incomplete. Apple was selling the iPhone 6 32 under the radar via special promotions through select resellers in some countries in the second half of 2017.

    I can pick up an Apple sanctioned iPhone 6 32GB at an Apple Store within a Store in Barcelona today for 348€. That includes 22% sales tax. That same phone is NOT available via the Apple Spain web.

    Again, though, the question is why such a major change to bring us into 2018? If everything was hunky dory, why change a winning formula?

    Clearly someone thought this was necessary. Do you doubt that Android and Android handsets were at least part of the reason or was it a desire to shift more units, or both?

    Whichever way you look at it, these are uncharted waters for Apple.


    I don’t think there’s much “there” there. It is an interesting place, partly come about by the introduction of two top models at the same year, one significantly more expensive. Apple has said that they want to make their ecosystem as accessible as possible. This makes sense, because it’s provenly very sticky. They do it because they can. And part of what it does is show that not everyone has to buy the X. 

    But at the same time the rapid evolution of the A-series of chips mean both that there will be even faster ones soon but that the old ones will hang around for more than a little while. So what do you do? Take advantage of the opportunity to get more people inside your system. 
    watto_cobralolliver
  • Reply 40 of 62
    Apple survived peak PC growth... Apple survived peak mp3 player growth... peak tablet growth... peak smartphone growth? Yeah not concerned. Apple’s ‘Other’ and ‘Services’ are growing like crazy. Homekit is in its infancy. Health research.... etc etc. Glasses are coming. AR... All this and the iPhone is heartbeat of the ecosystem. Peak smartphone doesnt mean doom and gloom. It means offering a watch or Apple Music or Airpods to supplement.

    Siri will only be a problem until it isnt. Siri will eventually be a true platform and when it is Apple will have more active users than Amazon or Google. Siri is everywhere. Hand, wrist, car, home... it is everywhere you are. And they will do it with security/privacy that no one else will offer (or even try to).
    watto_cobralolliver
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