The Smartphone Endgame: Who wins once shipment volumes peak?



  • Reply 61 of 62
    kevin keekevin kee Posts: 1,289member
    lkrupp said:
    In Apple’s case though the water is clear and the profits healthy, yet the sharks are still circling. Why?
     I suppose it has something to do with the juiciest and tenderest meat if it ever bled. Those sharks are true hunters, with patience to match.
  • Reply 62 of 62
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 7,884member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    nht said:

    sgnq said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    Oppo is doomed.

    saltyzip said:
    Apple is trying desperately to keep punters upgrading their phones each year or two, ensuring newer models are more expensive, plus expanding the ecosystem for lock in. 
    I recently bought a one year old SE, I guess that makes me immune to Apple's fabled coercion techniques.
    ... And I left the platform and my wife will stay on her iPhone 6 for another year and Apple hasn't been able to pull unit growth out of any corner for the last two years.

    Maybe we are the representation of what he said. That Apple can go on like this forever.

    It could be that even Apple is starting to realise this too because when you bought your SE, you had the biggest choice in Apple history to pick from. If the ecosystem were so sticky and users so happy, why change the model?
    Another day, another chance to push that bullshit meme again.

    Apple's "model" for expansion of the iPhone line has been around since before the iPhone 4 that you won't upgrade because you "Huawei" every day.

    The only difference in Apple's "model" over the last 10 years, is that Apple added an SE 16 GB model at the $349 price point.

    Really testing the waters there.

    Please also note that ASP line...
    And the graph shows what I said.

    We now have the biggest iPhone spread in history. The question is, why?

    This didn't start with the iPhone 4. It is a new situation. 

    Look a little harder at the graph because the difference is there.

    The ''cheaper" models were no way near as varied as they are today (a major difference) and came with serious limitations, the first being capacity. They were effectively crippled. All part of the plan. So much so that if you even so much as dared go for an older model and looked for the capacity that was best for you, you found that capacity had mysteriously vanished from the lineup and to get it, you had to opt for the newer models. Again, all part of the plan. 

    The same was (and still is, to a point) true for size. Cheaper meant smaller and there was no way around that.

    That has all changed since September 17. Not only that, a third model was added to the mix.

    You now have something that probably meets your price, capacity, size needs whereas before, things were far more skewed against you.

    Btw, the graph is incomplete. Apple was selling the iPhone 6 32 under the radar via special promotions through select resellers in some countries in the second half of 2017.

    I can pick up an Apple sanctioned iPhone 6 32GB at an Apple Store within a Store in Barcelona today for 348€. That includes 22% sales tax. That same phone is NOT available via the Apple Spain web.

    Again, though, the question is why such a major change to bring us into 2018? If everything was hunky dory, why change a winning formula?

    Clearly someone thought this was necessary. Do you doubt that Android and Android handsets were at least part of the reason or was it a desire to shift more units, or both?

    Whichever way you look at it, these are uncharted waters for Apple.

    I don’t think there’s much “there” there. It is an interesting place, partly come about by the introduction of two top models at the same year, one significantly more expensive. Apple has said that they want to make their ecosystem as accessible as possible. This makes sense, because it’s provenly very sticky. They do it because they can. And part of what it does is show that not everyone has to buy the X. 

    But at the same time the rapid evolution of the A-series of chips mean both that there will be even faster ones soon but that the old ones will hang around for more than a little while. So what do you do? Take advantage of the opportunity to get more people inside your system. 
    Yes.  The X is a likely special case because new technology was introduced and the price point had to go up. In a year or possibly two we'll be back down to one flagship.

    The variation in the low end hasn't varied much.  The model expansion has been upwards with plus and now X.

    Avon's point has always been stupid because he's trying to imply that Apple is doomed.  Apple does want to ship more units but at high ASPs and margins.  They don't need or want to race downward or even all that much to the middle.  The waters are hardly uncharted and that's just more silly nonsense. He's pretending that Apple hasn't been here before with the iPod. 

    Apple is positioning the Apple Watch as their "feature phone".  As soon as you don't need a phone but can configure via iCloud it's there.
    With so many billions laying around, Apple is far from doomed and you wouldn't hear that even implied from me.

    If Apple only had its Mac business to drive revenues I wouldn't run screaming to the hills. It's not an issue for me.

    That's for those who are obsessed with ASP or who have an investment in the company (for whom it would be a different story).

    I vote with my money. If I consider prices too high or options sub par, I simply don't buy.

    The question is how many people do the same as me.

    Flat sales say a lot and have nothing to do with peak smartphone shipments. Perhaps peak iPhone shipments but I don't even think that's the case.

    Some people here seem to be changing their tune. Now that some analysts have said that Apple needs to get agressive on pricing, accept little or slow growth at the high end etc, everything seems logical to them and they accept it might happen.

    My view is that from September last year, it is already happening and is only the beginning. If the revamped SE gets a spring release it will only bolster the situation.

    If they retire the 6 series and go to SE and SE Plus with attractive pricing (like the new  iPad in iPad world) it could be a masterstroke.

    I have applauded Apple's recent strategic moves. Mainly because I've been arguing for such a move for a while.

    However, while some go OTT on one quarter, I prefer to be patient and see how results actually go.

    I said that competition at the premium end was going to be the fiercest in recent memory at the end of last year and it was.

    That will continue. Yesterday was the S9. In a few weeks we have the P20. Then the Note 9 and Mate 11, plus two Honor flagships. If Apple (SE aside) sticks to its release schedule, we only have the X to September plus an array of foreheaded and chinned phones that will be looking rather dated way sooner than the release dates of any major release.

    That's why I hope the SE goes full screen (or as far as it can) if it gets updated. 

    We've already seen teasers of new battery tech, leaks of phones without physical volume buttons and we know that advanced sub millimetre 3D modelling for small objects is coming along with triple camera arrays. AI is getting more applications. 5G chipsets are ready.

    A lot of that could be a reality way before the iPhone X gets an update.

    Huawei also presented its digital skies proposal last year for the sub 300m flying vehicle market which will use AI, Cloud and 5G. It might only be the first steps but they need to be taken.

    Literally, nobody within Apple's ecosystem gives a shit about what Huawei is doing with it's premium phones, however many and varied they are. Oh, except that the P20 adds a notch and leaves the chin. That's fucked up design that will, as you say, be "looking rather dated way sooner than the release dates of any major release"! It is being mocked big time for that, and only two cameras; sad! Hence, why Huawei shouldn't worry about the supposed loss of carrier sales in the U.S. 

    Huawei competes in the 86% of the market that is Android OS, not the 14% that is iPhone, and is worrisome to Samsung and Xiaomi at most. Do you really think that Huawei is going to steal customers from those two manufacturers without a fight? Be prepared for ASP's much, much, lower than Samung's current record of $245.
    Literally? No. Not at all. People do give a shit.

    And I'm sure, and this is ironic, that far more people would give more of a shit if they understood the dynamics of Apple's ASP.

    Clearly Huawei is more of a threat to Android vendors than to Apple but believe me, Huawei is a threat nevertheless. Now that the US government has scuppered the carrier deals (Richard Yu went on record as saying that multiple US carriers actually wanted to carry Huawei phones), Apple will see less impact than it would have otherwise but there will still be people who 'give a shit'. Do you think I'm the only person who has switched? That still leaves the rest of the world.

    Personally, I have no problems with foreheads, chins or notches. Design isn't the most important factor for me. Price and features are.

    The notch itself is more a design compromise than a design element. It's a way of getting more screen area out of the phone. Not a bad goal. That goal also did away with the home button/scanner. However, what if you don't want to do away with a front facing fingerprint scanner?

    Then you simply keep it. That's all. It's not an error or ''fucked up". Huawei could easily do away with that front placed scanner or a notch itself but typically gives users distinct options. That's why the Mate 10 series (to give a recent example) carries models with both front and rear placements.

    Only two cameras? Well, they are rumours. Nobody knows for sure but the most probable scenario (based on rumours, remember) is one P20 model with dual cameras, and another with a tri-camera setup. That much has virtually been confirmed by the company through different invites/teasers/ official comments.

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