Refurbished, high-end iPhones are suffocating the growth of cheap new Androids

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Comments

  • Reply 61 of 67
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,986member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    kevin kee said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    entropys said:
    Seeing as android makers regularly discount, why get a refurb?
    Because it's an iPhone, people want iPhones.
    Some people want iPhones. Looking at the 1550 million smartphones sold in 2017, I'd say most people don't want iPhones.
    Don't want or can't afford?

    Refurbished iPhones are an option for those that do want to own an iPhone.
    Exactly, some


    I'm stating that there are people that can't afford an iPhone that want and aspire to one anyway. You don't seem to be able to acknowledge that.
    I am acknowledging that. I am also saying those people represent just some of the pie and a small chunk at that.

    With Apple's current offerings, plus refurbished options, hand-me-downs etc only the absolutely bottom end market would find itself priced out.

    It goes without saying that there are also people who simply have no desire to use iOS on a phone.
    In many developing countries, given a choice, they would gladly choose iPhone. And those are not just a small chunk of a pie. I remember seeing a study regarding this, which showing a very high percentage of people in a country where Androids are the norm, prefer to get an iPhone if the price was cheaper (I couldn't find the link).
    What are you basing you claims on?

    I live in a developed country but you can ask any Android user you come across if they would rather have an iPhone and I can guarantee you from personal experience that almost all of them will say no. This is supported by the fact that many of them can easily afford an iPhone, some of them have actually owned iPhones previously and others have high end Android phones anyway.


    I've seen many, many, posts on your part postulating that "if only Apple had lower priced iPhones, they would see more unit sales". I acknowledge the you are correct that Android uptake is almost entirely driven by price on the low end. In fact, it is the only choice available. 

    Given the option of lower pricing points for iPhones, including refurbished models, it's hard not to imagine that there won't be some people abandoning Android OS for Apple's ecosystem. That's the aspirational part, and why Apple's user base keeps increasing. I look for your comments after Apple's next quarterly financials, when I expect iPhone X sales to shine.

    BTW, I've seen data similar to what Kevin Kee is referencing, and the data shows that Apple picks up more Android OS users than vice versa. I'll take that over your anecdotal evidence.

    Oh, here's a link to some data;

    https://www.macrumors.com/2017/10/11/teen-iphone-survey-fall-2017/

    "78 percent of teens surveyed own an iPhone, up two percent from the spring 2017 survey conducted earlier this year. 82 percent of teens said their next smartphone will be an iPhone, the highest amount of interest ever noted in one of these surveys." 
    I look for your comments after Apple's next quarterly financials, when I expect iPhone X sales to shine. - This is an interesting topic to discuss, because we have already discussed and have opposing view points!!! Despite setting new record for revenue in holiday quarter, Apple's unit sales went down by 1%. Do you expect Apple to increase unit sales in Jan-Mar quarter? I expect the opposite. Huge increase in revenue (which Apple themselves have provided in the guidance, no need to doubt that), but flat sales (+- 1% deviation).
    Apple's guidance is for $60-$62 billion revenue which is a 14-17% YOY increase. I'm not expecting a unit sales increase YOY, but do expect that sales of the iPhone X will continue to lead iPhone model unit sales.

    You seem to be focused on unit sales, which is fine, while I see Apple growing a user base that keeps its devices longer and yet still attracts Android OS users, all the while making the bulk of revenue and profits, and gaining growth to its services. These refurbished devices grow the user base and help retain value for the user.
    edited March 2018
  • Reply 62 of 67
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 4,309member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    kevin kee said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    entropys said:
    Seeing as android makers regularly discount, why get a refurb?
    Because it's an iPhone, people want iPhones.
    Some people want iPhones. Looking at the 1550 million smartphones sold in 2017, I'd say most people don't want iPhones.
    Don't want or can't afford?

    Refurbished iPhones are an option for those that do want to own an iPhone.
    Exactly, some


    I'm stating that there are people that can't afford an iPhone that want and aspire to one anyway. You don't seem to be able to acknowledge that.
    I am acknowledging that. I am also saying those people represent just some of the pie and a small chunk at that.

    With Apple's current offerings, plus refurbished options, hand-me-downs etc only the absolutely bottom end market would find itself priced out.

    It goes without saying that there are also people who simply have no desire to use iOS on a phone.
    In many developing countries, given a choice, they would gladly choose iPhone. And those are not just a small chunk of a pie. I remember seeing a study regarding this, which showing a very high percentage of people in a country where Androids are the norm, prefer to get an iPhone if the price was cheaper (I couldn't find the link).
    What are you basing you claims on?

    I live in a developed country but you can ask any Android user you come across if they would rather have an iPhone and I can guarantee you from personal experience that almost all of them will say no. This is supported by the fact that many of them can easily afford an iPhone, some of them have actually owned iPhones previously and others have high end Android phones anyway.


    I've seen many, many, posts on your part postulating that "if only Apple had lower priced iPhones, they would see more unit sales". I acknowledge the you are correct that Android uptake is almost entirely driven by price on the low end. In fact, it is the only choice available. 

    Given the option of lower pricing points for iPhones, including refurbished models, it's hard not to imagine that there won't be some people abandoning Android OS for Apple's ecosystem. That's the aspirational part, and why Apple's user base keeps increasing. I look for your comments after Apple's next quarterly financials, when I expect iPhone X sales to shine.

    BTW, I've seen data similar to what Kevin Kee is referencing, and the data shows that Apple picks up more Android OS users than vice versa. I'll take that over your anecdotal evidence.

    Oh, here's a link to some data;

    https://www.macrumors.com/2017/10/11/teen-iphone-survey-fall-2017/

    "78 percent of teens surveyed own an iPhone, up two percent from the spring 2017 survey conducted earlier this year. 82 percent of teens said their next smartphone will be an iPhone, the highest amount of interest ever noted in one of these surveys." 
    Exactly. I follow you. I simply qualify it with 'some'. No big deal.

  • Reply 63 of 67
    Most analysts have already decided that no consumer in their right mind would buy a refurbished Apple iPhone instead of a shiny new Android smartphone with all the latest features. I'm not sure if they've actually done a poll to determine that but maybe that's the most natural thing for consumers. I've always had excellent results buying Apple refurbished products but that's just me. Apple refurbished products have always seemed as good as new and have lasted as long as new products. I honestly can't tell the difference. I always feel as though I'm getting a bargain. I see nothing wrong with buying a good refurbished product from Apple.

    Anyway, as far as analysts are concerned, Apple is only supposed to be selling brand new products because that's how Apple makes most of its money. Analysts are always griping if Apple tries to sell refurbished products because it steals sales from new products. I just think if a product is good, it shouldn't be thrown away as junk. That's not being responsible to the ecology if consumers toss away perfectly good products.
    edited March 2018
  • Reply 64 of 67
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    kevin kee said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    entropys said:
    Seeing as android makers regularly discount, why get a refurb?
    Because it's an iPhone, people want iPhones.
    Some people want iPhones. Looking at the 1550 million smartphones sold in 2017, I'd say most people don't want iPhones.
    Don't want or can't afford?

    Refurbished iPhones are an option for those that do want to own an iPhone.
    Exactly, some


    I'm stating that there are people that can't afford an iPhone that want and aspire to one anyway. You don't seem to be able to acknowledge that.
    I am acknowledging that. I am also saying those people represent just some of the pie and a small chunk at that.

    With Apple's current offerings, plus refurbished options, hand-me-downs etc only the absolutely bottom end market would find itself priced out.

    It goes without saying that there are also people who simply have no desire to use iOS on a phone.
    In many developing countries, given a choice, they would gladly choose iPhone. And those are not just a small chunk of a pie. I remember seeing a study regarding this, which showing a very high percentage of people in a country where Androids are the norm, prefer to get an iPhone if the price was cheaper (I couldn't find the link).
    What are you basing you claims on?

    I live in a developed country but you can ask any Android user you come across if they would rather have an iPhone and I can guarantee you from personal experience that almost all of them will say no. This is supported by the fact that many of them can easily afford an iPhone, some of them have actually owned iPhones previously and others have high end Android phones anyway.


    I've seen many, many, posts on your part postulating that "if only Apple had lower priced iPhones, they would see more unit sales". I acknowledge the you are correct that Android uptake is almost entirely driven by price on the low end. In fact, it is the only choice available. 

    Given the option of lower pricing points for iPhones, including refurbished models, it's hard not to imagine that there won't be some people abandoning Android OS for Apple's ecosystem. That's the aspirational part, and why Apple's user base keeps increasing. I look for your comments after Apple's next quarterly financials, when I expect iPhone X sales to shine.

    BTW, I've seen data similar to what Kevin Kee is referencing, and the data shows that Apple picks up more Android OS users than vice versa. I'll take that over your anecdotal evidence.

    Oh, here's a link to some data;

    https://www.macrumors.com/2017/10/11/teen-iphone-survey-fall-2017/

    "78 percent of teens surveyed own an iPhone, up two percent from the spring 2017 survey conducted earlier this year. 82 percent of teens said their next smartphone will be an iPhone, the highest amount of interest ever noted in one of these surveys." 
    I look for your comments after Apple's next quarterly financials, when I expect iPhone X sales to shine. - This is an interesting topic to discuss, because we have already discussed and have opposing view points!!! Despite setting new record for revenue in holiday quarter, Apple's unit sales went down by 1%. Do you expect Apple to increase unit sales in Jan-Mar quarter? I expect the opposite. Huge increase in revenue (which Apple themselves have provided in the guidance, no need to doubt that), but flat sales (+- 1% deviation).
    Apple's guidance is for $60-$62 billion revenue which is a 14-17% YOY increase. I'm not expecting a unit sales increase YOY, but do expect that sales of the iPhone X will continue to lead iPhone model unit sales.

    You seem to be focused on unit sales, which is fine, while I see Apple growing a user base that keeps its devices longer and yet still attracts Android OS users, all the while making the bulk of revenue and profits, and gaining growth to its services. These refurbished devices grow the user base and help retain value for the user.
    Wall Street is only interested in high unit sales.  Greedy investors want what they want and there's no point in trying to tell them otherwise.  New sales is all they ever want to hear.  I just want Apple to grow its iPhone user base any way possible if even if it's with refurbished iPhones.  It would seem there is decent profit margins selling refurbished iPhones and it's also good for saving natural resources.
  • Reply 65 of 67
    Latko said:
    So great for Craigslist. And indirectly, to flatten Apple's supercycle ( which was a fairly ludicrous idea anyway...)
    The "super cycle" was never defined as a 'units sold' cycle.  I read Katy Huberty's 48 page report on the subject, and while she underestimated iPhone pricing, she saw the "super cycle" as being a user base cycle.

    Each "new" user added to the installed base increases Services revenue $49/year.  That amount is increasing annually and will explode when Apple begins streaming original content with audio playback coming through the HomePod.
  • Reply 66 of 67

    avon b7 said:
    In absolute terms:

    2017 total smartphone unit  sales: 1550 million

    2017 total refurbished smartphone unit sales: 140 million

    Am I reading the numbers right?
    Yes.
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