Supply chain needlessly predicting doom and gloom for 2018 iPhone early

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 38
    nunzynunzy Posts: 662member
    avon b7 said:
    Q2 unit sales were lower than Q1.
    Q3 unit sales will be lower than Q2.
    Q4 unit sales usually buck the trend a little
    Q1 unit sales are the annual peak.

    You don't need an analyst for that.

    You don't need an analyst to tell you that annual shipments have been flat for years now.

    You don't need an analyst to tell you that Apple is preparing for 'post iPhone'.

    If you bought into Apple over the last two years you would have done so knowing full well that the iPhone was unlikely to be blazing a trail in the same way it did in the previous years and therefore would already be taking into account a possible slip in unit sales.

    If you bought into Apple years ago you have probably already made your gains and if you haven't already reduced your stake, you also see a 'post iPhone' Apple.

    In both cases, this supply chain rumour is irrelevant to you.

    Of course, if Q4 18 unit sales don't buck the downward trend of the previous two quarters, you'd better have your tin foil hat ready because the share price will enter the perfect storm no matter what the supply chain rumours claim and independently of how healthy Apple's other business areas may be.

    And if Q1 19 unit sales don't correct that theoretical dip, expect Tim Cook to start shining his own tin foil hat (and wear it during the earnings call) and dusting off the RDF.

    All this without an analyst or supply chain rumour in sight.

    Q3 will be a breeze though as nothing is expected of it anyway.




    ...


     iPhone generates almost twice as much profit for apple as everything else put together. Without iPhone, Apple would not be worth nearly a trillion dollars, but instead, somewhat above 300 billion. Apple would not even be in the top 10. I think we can all agree that a post iPhone Apple would be unrecognizable from today's perspective.
    Deadguy2322
  • Reply 22 of 38
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,955member
    tmay said:
    I suspect that the rumor has more to do with the eventual mix of new products than a weakening in expected demand, but either way, Apple and Warren Buffett are going to find some nice deals on buybacks and stock respectively.
    Here we go again.  I had hoped that Ming Chi Kuo getting fired by KGI Securities would put a stop to this madness.  Apparently not.

    It is the norm (average of last 6 years) that iPhone unit sales decline 20.20% from FQ2 (March quarter) levels to FQ3 (June quarter) level (20.95% since iPhone 6 launch).

    There is nothing happening here except that, despite the historical decline from FQ2, iPhone unit sales during FQ3 are going to increase 6.15% YoY.

    Articles like this happen when the idiot writing the story has no finance training/knowledge or chooses (for the headline) to ignore it.  My guess is that he/she is just stupid.
    The available data points that I have seen (from asymco) show a lengthening lifespan for iPhone ownership, my recollection being that it is just under 4 years average. iOS 12 would seem to reinforce that trend, with a no cost, OTA performance enhancements for 5s on. That continued value is expanding the user base for iPhones, even as Apple will likely trend single digit YOY unit growth indefinitely. Hence, why I don't buy the continued pearl clutching.

    Apple continuing to support devices going on 6 years old is unheard of in the competing platform, and certainly provides the foundation for Apple's continued dominance in the flagship smartphones. The value proposition for iPhones is astounding.

    Deadguy2322radarthekatwatto_cobra
  • Reply 23 of 38
    tzeshantzeshan Posts: 2,008member
    tmay said:
    I suspect that the rumor has more to do with the eventual mix of new products than a weakening in expected demand, but either way, Apple and Warren Buffett are going to find some nice deals on buybacks and stock respectively.
    Here we go again.  I had hoped that Ming Chi Kuo getting fired by KGI Securities would put a stop to this madness.  Apparently not.

    It is the norm (average of last 6 years) that iPhone unit sales decline 20.20% from FQ2 (March quarter) levels to FQ3 (June quarter) level (20.95% since iPhone 6 launch).

    There is nothing happening here except that, despite the historical decline from FQ2, iPhone unit sales during FQ3 are going to increase 6.15% YoY.

    Articles like this happen when the idiot writing the story has no finance training/knowledge or chooses (for the headline) to ignore it.  My guess is that he/she is just stupid.
    Is he fired really? 
  • Reply 24 of 38
    tzeshantzeshan Posts: 2,008member
    nunzy said:
    avon b7 said:
    Q2 unit sales were lower than Q1.
    Q3 unit sales will be lower than Q2.
    Q4 unit sales usually buck the trend a little
    Q1 unit sales are the annual peak.

    You don't need an analyst for that.

    You don't need an analyst to tell you that annual shipments have been flat for years now.

    You don't need an analyst to tell you that Apple is preparing for 'post iPhone'.

    If you bought into Apple over the last two years you would have done so knowing full well that the iPhone was unlikely to be blazing a trail in the same way it did in the previous years and therefore would already be taking into account a possible slip in unit sales.

    If you bought into Apple years ago you have probably already made your gains and if you haven't already reduced your stake, you also see a 'post iPhone' Apple.

    In both cases, this supply chain rumour is irrelevant to you.

    Of course, if Q4 18 unit sales don't buck the downward trend of the previous two quarters, you'd better have your tin foil hat ready because the share price will enter the perfect storm no matter what the supply chain rumours claim and independently of how healthy Apple's other business areas may be.

    And if Q1 19 unit sales don't correct that theoretical dip, expect Tim Cook to start shining his own tin foil hat (and wear it during the earnings call) and dusting off the RDF.

    All this without an analyst or supply chain rumour in sight.

    Q3 will be a breeze though as nothing is expected of it anyway.




    ...


     iPhone generates almost twice as much profit for apple as everything else put together. Without iPhone, Apple would not be worth nearly a trillion dollars, but instead, somewhat above 300 billion. Apple would not even be in the top 10. I think we can all agree that a post iPhone Apple would be unrecognizable from today's perspective.
    Without iPhone Apple will not be in existence today. 
    nunzy
  • Reply 25 of 38
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,324member
    The supply chain estimates here are for the new phones. 
  • Reply 26 of 38
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 4,894administrator
    tzeshan said:
    tmay said:
    I suspect that the rumor has more to do with the eventual mix of new products than a weakening in expected demand, but either way, Apple and Warren Buffett are going to find some nice deals on buybacks and stock respectively.
    Here we go again.  I had hoped that Ming Chi Kuo getting fired by KGI Securities would put a stop to this madness.  Apparently not.

    It is the norm (average of last 6 years) that iPhone unit sales decline 20.20% from FQ2 (March quarter) levels to FQ3 (June quarter) level (20.95% since iPhone 6 launch).

    There is nothing happening here except that, despite the historical decline from FQ2, iPhone unit sales during FQ3 are going to increase 6.15% YoY.

    Articles like this happen when the idiot writing the story has no finance training/knowledge or chooses (for the headline) to ignore it.  My guess is that he/she is just stupid.
    Is he fired really? 
    He didn't get fired. He left, and he's elsewhere now, still making iPhone predictions.
    Alex1N
  • Reply 27 of 38
    lovemnlovemn Posts: 51member
    Too many people have a short memory. The Nikkei is the same organization that published false information on April 19, 2018, concerning Apple not selling iPhone X and no one in China were buying iPhones. I’m not sure who pays for these untruths but it does cause idiots to sell their stock. Apple always cuts production of past iPhones before beginning production of new iPhones. There’s now a buying opportunity available on AAPL.
    Deadguy2322jmey267watto_cobraAlex1N
  • Reply 28 of 38
    It’s really sad that investors continue to react every time one of these stories comes out. At what point do they just ignore the noise rather than overreacting to it?
    Apparently never. They ignore bad news about other stocks like Google, or Amazon, but if Apple sneezes, the stock dives. It's been going on for close to 20 years. 
    jmey267radarthekatwatto_cobra
  • Reply 29 of 38
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,417member
    For any who didn’t get the memo, it’s “Short AAPL Day”.
    radarthekatwatto_cobra
  • Reply 30 of 38
    netroxnetrox Posts: 795member
    With the trade war going on, I expect millions of jobs being lost and as a result, the demand for iPhones will be lower than ever.
  • Reply 31 of 38
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,417member
    netrox said:
    With the trade war going on, I expect millions of jobs being lost and as a result, the demand for iPhones will be lower than ever.
    There’s no “trade war.” Countries are engaging in re-negotiations of agreements, that’s all.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 32 of 38
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 4,658member
    Here is the truth of the matter, Apple most likely did tell suppliers to expect something different if they are providing parts to the existing phones, they are definitely going to see a down turn when Apple intro's a new phone. The problem is if these same suppliers are not in the new phone they will not see an increase thus a 20% decline in business for those older phones.

    What is also safe to assume the analysis will take this information and create FUD to drive down the stock 10 to 15 points get their friends to buy on the drop and let Apple clear the air with actual fast and they just made a quick 10 or 15 per share. Then the cycle starts all over again.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 33 of 38
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,907member
    GG1 said:
    There may be some truth to these less-than-expected orders.

    Consider the impact of the (popular) battery replacement program; consider that iOS12 will speed up all phones a bit more; then you have a recipe for a less compelling reason to upgrade.

    This is my situation. However, we don't know the 2018 line-up yet. But a dual-SIM iPhone will be a very compelling new feature for me.
    Most people such as my family have buying programs. We buy new phones at two year intervals. We are due this year. So depending on how many people are due this year, or find the lower pricing favorable, or the additional sizes, sales will be up by that percentage, whatever it may be.

    i doubt very much that Apple will be finding themselves in the situation Samsung is in where the sales of the galaxy S series has gone down every year since the S4. 
    watto_cobraAlex1N
  • Reply 34 of 38
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,980member
    Nikkei was disgusting. It was wrong in last quarter earnings. Never trust this stupid anal ist again!
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 35 of 38
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,372member
    It’s really sad that investors continue to react every time one of these stories comes out. At what point do they just ignore the noise rather than overreacting to it?
    Apparently never. They ignore bad news about other stocks like Google, or Amazon, but if Apple sneezes, the stock dives. It's been going on for close to 20 years. 
    Right and over that 20 years AAPL is up what ...  way over 1000% increase?  I've been in far less than 20 years and show over 800% increase.
    edited June 2018 SpamSandwich
  • Reply 36 of 38
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 4,894administrator
    If you got deleted, you know why.
    Alex1N
  • Reply 37 of 38
    anton zuykovanton zuykov Posts: 1,040member
    melgross said:
    It’s normal from them to talk Apple down. Rarely, they’re right
    I am suspecting, that might be the reason for doom and gloom. They miss-predict what apple stock will do by a mile. Then they listen to their own predictions reberberating in the info-space, buy the narrative (other morons and wall street helps with that) and they dump the stock. Then the stock starts to go up, after which morons try to get it down a bit to get some for themselves, because they realize they have just srewed up...and they do that by releasing “doom-and-gloom” agan.... and it just repeats itself every cycle, because they are so inept they manage to miss the boat every time. :D :#
    Of course wall street is on another end of that, picking up the stock cheap, and then selling it to the morons, when it grows enough.
    edited June 2018
  • Reply 38 of 38
    nunzynunzy Posts: 662member
    If you got deleted, you know why.
    Can you tell us?
    watto_cobra
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