Switchers still healthy market for Apple, account for 20 percent of quarterly iPhone sales...

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 59
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,727member
    lkrupp said:
    melgross said:
    But, realistically, things don’t look as good as some might believe. If 15-20% of Apple’s yearly iPhone sales come from switchers, and Apple’s total iPhone sales are only increasing very slightly, such as the 3% last year, what does that say about iPhone users overall? Are they switching to android?
    See, that’s how people spin things to fit their personal bias. You can prove anything with statistics. Those who think Apple is a forward thinking, innovative company take an article like this as a positive. Those, apparently like yourself, who think the company is failing, irrelevant, not innovative, especially in the area of the dying desktop market, take an article like this as a sign of impending doom. I prefer to think positive.
    You’ve got me completely wrong. I most certainly don’t think Apple is failing. I also don’t think they aren’t innovating. But I also try to be objective. In addition to being a heavy user of their products, I also have 100,000 shares. I assure you that if I didn’t believe in Apple’s management, I would have divested myself of those shares.

    but what some people don’t seem to understand, is that there are forces beyond what innovation can account for. Just as in computers, we’ve reached a point with smartphones where, for most people, innovation has gotten ahead of what they think matters. So how many really think advanced AR is a feature to buy a phone for? How about FaceID? There are people who don’t like that idea at all.

    and 3D Touch. So far, most people either ignore it, or avoid using it. So is it a feature that sells phones, apparently not.

    the problem Apple and others, particularly Samsung have is that adding more, and new features is interesting fewer people. Many have reached the limit of what they want to do with their phone. Samsung, according to reports, as Samsung doesn’t release quarterly numbers for smartphone and tablet sales, has seen lower sales for its Galaxy S line each year since the Galaxy 4.

    the biggest sales jump for Apple came with the model 6 and 6+, because people saw larger screens as very desirable. So much so, that people who weren’t going to buy a phone that year did. People who weren’t going to buy a phone for two more years also gave in, to a lesser extent. It was obvious to me that the reason next year’s sales were down wasn’t because of lessened interest, as many were saying, but that the 50% increase in sales that year sucked sales from the next year, and some from the year later.

    but since then, people have been less interested in what came next. The X did very well because it added a number of innovations for those who were willing to pay the very high price.. supposedly, this year’s models will cost less, because it’s not new anymore, which leads to cost reductions. If so, we may see enhanced sales, but not the mad increase we saw with the 6, 6+.
    gatorguymuthuk_vanalingamwatto_cobra
  • Reply 22 of 59
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,727member
    I would like to know how many older iPhone are given away, and how many are traded in to the phone company when a new model is purchased after the standard two years. Nothing here mentions that. We also really don’t know what happens to those phones that are traded in. I assume they’re refurbished and resold. But we have no numbers for it.
    muthuk_vanalingamwatto_cobra
  • Reply 23 of 59
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,799member
    melgross said:
    I would like to know how many older iPhone are given away, and how many are traded in to the phone company when a new model is purchased after the standard two years. Nothing here mentions that. We also really don’t know what happens to those phones that are traded in. I assume they’re refurbished and resold. But we have no numbers for it.
    http://www.asymco.com/2018/03/01/determining-the-average-apple-device-lifespan/
  • Reply 24 of 59
    Who cares about another report citing this or that statistic regarding iPhones?

    The bottom line is Apple is winning. They completely dominate the high-end market for phones and are more than happy to let 101 Android vendors fight over the table scraps.
    StrangeDayslkruppwatto_cobra
  • Reply 25 of 59
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member
    lkrupp said:
    After the switch to iPhone comes the switch to a Mac, the switch to iTunes, Apple Music, etc.
    Who’s going to switch to a Mac when they refuse to update them? I came to the thread and did a search for “Mac”; didn’t show up in the article at all, which confirmed my fears. We have no Mac switcher statistics anymore, because… well. Apple used to mention at keynotes that half their Mac sales in a quarter was switchers. They don’t really talk about the Mac anymore.
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 26 of 59
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,698member
    Who cares about another report citing this or that statistic regarding iPhones?

    The bottom line is Apple is winning. They completely dominate the high-end market for phones and are more than happy to let 101 Android vendors fight over the table scraps.
    That may finally be changing at least a bit Eric. The ASP's since 2016 are up across the board with the exception of developed Asia (read China?). While North America prices are up a paltry 4% the worldwide revenues per device for Android phones were up 11% last year according to reports. In general folks are paying more for their smartphones which would presumably mean increased profits for the OEM's. 
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 27 of 59
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,799member
    gatorguy said:
    Who cares about another report citing this or that statistic regarding iPhones?

    The bottom line is Apple is winning. They completely dominate the high-end market for phones and are more than happy to let 101 Android vendors fight over the table scraps.
    That may finally be changing at least a bit Eric. The ASP's since 2016 are up across the board with the exception of developed Asia (read China?). While North America prices are up a paltry 4% the worldwide revenues per device for Android phones were up 11% last year according to reports. In general folks are paying more for their smartphones which would presumably mean increased profits for the OEM's. 
    Those ASP numbers certainly reflect the Android OS market more so than the iPhone market, based on the last few quarters of Apple's iPhone increasing revenues.

    Samsung's ASP high was last Christmas at around $250, a third of Apple's at the time. As the market matures, the ASP might climb, but at the same time, there is increasing competition among premium Android OS devices. Sure looks like the survivors are going to battle it out for marketshare and margins. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 28 of 59
    jahbladejahblade Posts: 147member
    melgross said:
    But, realistically, things don’t look as good as some might believe. If 15-20% of Apple’s yearly iPhone sales come from switchers, and Apple’s total iPhone sales are only increasing very slightly, such as the 3% last year, what does that say about iPhone users overall? Are they switching to android?
    Our family of 5, hold on to our iphones for min. 3 years. I still use a 4s on my cycling rides as bike computer.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 29 of 59
    gatorguy said:
    Who cares about another report citing this or that statistic regarding iPhones?

    The bottom line is Apple is winning. They completely dominate the high-end market for phones and are more than happy to let 101 Android vendors fight over the table scraps.
    That may finally be changing at least a bit Eric. The ASP's since 2016 are up across the board with the exception of developed Asia (read China?). While North America prices are up a paltry 4% the worldwide revenues per device for Android phones were up 11% last year according to reports. In general folks are paying more for their smartphones which would presumably mean increased profits for the OEM's. 

    11% in one year? That’s incredible. At this rate they might catch the iPhone in 30 years. /s
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 30 of 59
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,698member
    gatorguy said:
    Who cares about another report citing this or that statistic regarding iPhones?

    The bottom line is Apple is winning. They completely dominate the high-end market for phones and are more than happy to let 101 Android vendors fight over the table scraps.
    That may finally be changing at least a bit Eric. The ASP's since 2016 are up across the board with the exception of developed Asia (read China?). While North America prices are up a paltry 4% the worldwide revenues per device for Android phones were up 11% last year according to reports. In general folks are paying more for their smartphones which would presumably mean increased profits for the OEM's. 

    11% in one year? That’s incredible. At this rate they might catch the iPhone in 30 years. /s
    Yeah I think I did say "That may finally be changing at least a bit Eric". 

    Baby steps...
    gwydionmuthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 31 of 59
    gwydiongwydion Posts: 1,068member
    gatorguy said:
    The report also says that Apple's iOS loyalty rate, the likelihood of a user remaining with the platform, has been 85-88% over the past two years. Android users loyalty rate? 89-91%. The reason there's a 15-20% "switch rate" for iOS buyers is because there are so many more Android users to begin with.

    iOS switchers

    • 86% loyalty during 2017 (therefore 14% switch)
    • 215.8 million iPhones sold
    • “Lost” about 30 million to Android

    Android switchers

    • 91% loyalty rate during 2017 (therefore 9% switch)
    • 1.244 billion Android smartphones sold
    • “Lost” about 112 million to iOS

     Mel really wasn't far off if all we're going by is this CIRP report. 
    Remember, this CIRP report is for USA only
  • Reply 32 of 59
    croprcropr Posts: 943member
    tmay said:
    melgross said:
    But, realistically, things don’t look as good as some might believe. If 15-20% of Apple’s yearly iPhone sales come from switchers, and Apple’s total iPhone sales are only increasing very slightly, such as the 3% last year, what does that say about iPhone users overall? Are they switching to android?
    No,

    They are keeping their iPhones longer, there is a vibrant trade in used/refurbished devices, with very few switchers to Android OS devices. Plenty of data available on the internets to that effect.

    Neil Cybart figures a steady 215 m iPhone sales a year for a while, which means that the average age of iPhones is growing.
    As long as the global smartphone market was growing, there were people claiming that there was a net flow from Android to Apple switchers. On average the newcomers bought more Android and switched later to Apple.  While there was no real proof of such a claim, this was at least mathematically possible

    But now the global market smartphone market is stagnating (and even slightly decreasing).  As the market share of Apple is not increasing, mathematically this can only mean that there number of Apple to Android switcher is roughly equal to the number of Android to Apple switchers

    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 33 of 59
    chasmchasm Posts: 1,585member
    I love how CIRP just repackages literally the same thing Apple said in their quarterly conference call.
  • Reply 34 of 59
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,799member
    cropr said:
    tmay said:
    melgross said:
    But, realistically, things don’t look as good as some might believe. If 15-20% of Apple’s yearly iPhone sales come from switchers, and Apple’s total iPhone sales are only increasing very slightly, such as the 3% last year, what does that say about iPhone users overall? Are they switching to android?
    No,

    They are keeping their iPhones longer, there is a vibrant trade in used/refurbished devices, with very few switchers to Android OS devices. Plenty of data available on the internets to that effect.

    Neil Cybart figures a steady 215 m iPhone sales a year for a while, which means that the average age of iPhones is growing.
    As long as the global smartphone market was growing, there were people claiming that there was a net flow from Android to Apple switchers. On average the newcomers bought more Android and switched later to Apple.  While there was no real proof of such a claim, this was at least mathematically possible

    But now the global market smartphone market is stagnating (and even slightly decreasing).  As the market share of Apple is not increasing, mathematically this can only mean that there number of Apple to Android switcher is roughly equal to the number of Android to Apple switchers

    There is sales share and user base. The user base is still increasing over time, thanks to older iPhones in circulation, even as sales of new iPhones plateau's, Sooner or later, the user base growth will also slow if there is not a net increase of users that are switchers. In theory, and at an average of six years, the current length of iPhone iOS support, the iPhone user base would stabilize at about (6 x215m) 1.3 billion active iPhone users at a 6 year replacement cycle. 


    gwydionStrangeDaysradarthekatmuthuk_vanalingamwatto_cobra
  • Reply 35 of 59
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 7,942member
    lkrupp said:
    After the switch to iPhone comes the switch to a Mac, the switch to iTunes, Apple Music, etc.
    Who’s going to switch to a Mac when they refuse to update them? I came to the thread and did a search for “Mac”; didn’t show up in the article at all, which confirmed my fears. We have no Mac switcher statistics anymore, because… well. Apple used to mention at keynotes that half their Mac sales in a quarter was switchers. They don’t really talk about the Mac anymore.
    Normals don’t care about update schedules the way techies whine about it online. I’m a pro techie and my desktop imac is a 2011 — I still use it for running VMs and doing software development on. That’s the value of Apple hardware... Whether it’s replacement’s CPU is hot off the intel press or a year old doesn’t really matter. Certainly not to normal consumers. 

    But the reality is people just aren’t buying computers like they used to. And it’s not about specs...it’s about perceived value add. Most machines do what most of what most people want. 
    edited June 2018 lkruppradarthekatwatto_cobra
  • Reply 36 of 59
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,091moderator
    tmay said:
    Duh. That's the part of the growing base that drives Apple services. What I am curious about, is whether these recent switchers then go on to upgrade similarly to the current base of users, holding on to their iPhones for an average of 4 years, but using their trade in value to buy more expensive devices.
    For sure Apple knows exactly what these folks do next along with data on all existing iPhone owners in each annual cycle.  We never read about the vast information a company like Apple gathers from 40,000+ authorized reseller outlets, it’s 350+ carrier partners and its own 500+ retail outlets and online stores worldwide.  All of it informs the company as to how to market and price its offerings and represents a huge amount of customer feedback that likely has implications for Apple’s product roadmap.  Not saying Apple would design for the market the way companies are accused of having accounting and sales input into their product engineering, but this input might be something that helps Apple prioritize capabilities and features that are all on the roadmap anyway.  
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 37 of 59
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,091moderator

    melgross said:
    But, realistically, things don’t look as good as some might believe. If 15-20% of Apple’s yearly iPhone sales come from switchers, and Apple’s total iPhone sales are only increasing very slightly, such as the 3% last year, what does that say about iPhone users overall? Are they switching to android?
    You have to see those numbers in context of a flattening smartphone market where others are losing ground.  Increasing very slightly, or at all, in a stagnant market is a good thing.  See also... Mac sales over the last ten years.  Holding their own in a declining market.  The thibg to keep our eyes on now is not whether iPhone sales grow, but on how Apple does in new product categories that are taking over where the smartphone left off.  Apple did spectacularly in the product categories that took over, and perhaps caused, the PC decline; those being smartphones and tablets.  And so we should look to see how Apple does in wearables and other new I/O paradigms (AR, VR) to determine the future health of the company.
    tmaynetmagewatto_cobra
  • Reply 38 of 59
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,091moderator

    gatorguy said:
    asdasd said:
    gatorguy said:
    The report also estimates that over the past two years Apple’s iOS loyalty rate has been 85% to 88% and Google’s Android loyalty has ranged from 89% to 91%.
    still a net transfer to iOS of course. in fact you would expect more moving to iOS given those statistics. 
    Correct. Because of the mismatch on phone platform sales the net flow in rw numbers is to iOS.

    Yet Android users buyers are still less likely to switch to iOS than vice-versa, at least for now. Roughly 14% of former iOS users buyers swapped over to Android last year, while 9% of traditional Android users buyers switched sides to iOS. 
    Not surprising given that a significant reason for being on Android in the first place is price.  All things are therefore not equal.  Many Android users, and I encounter them daily here in the Philippines, could never consider an iPhone simply due to cost.  Though they nearly universally would accept one from their wealthy American friend (me) should I graciously offer to swap one in for their Android.  Lol
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 39 of 59
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,091moderator
    melgross said:
    tmay said:
    melgross said:
    But, realistically, things don’t look as good as some might believe. If 15-20% of Apple’s yearly iPhone sales come from switchers, and Apple’s total iPhone sales are only increasing very slightly, such as the 3% last year, what does that say about iPhone users overall? Are they switching to android?
    No,

    They are keeping their iPhones longer, there is a vibrant trade in used/refurbished devices, with very few switchers to Android OS devices. Plenty of data available on the internets to that effect.

    Neil Cybart figures a steady 215 m iPhone sales a year for a while, which means that the average age of iPhones is growing.
    That doesn’t actually address the issue. That number is less than what we are expecting, and a good 15 million less than Apple’s high. There is also information out there that says that Apple’s loyalty percentage is lower than Samsung’s.

    what is possible,  despite your statement, is that almost as many iPhone users are switching away, as are coming in. I know several who are so unhappy with Siri that they switched. Another long time iPhone user switched, and says that android is more intuitive. True? Well, that’s his opinion.
    Samsung here in the Philippines, along with other Asian brands, puts on fashion shows and entertainment shows in the malls (a big thing here at the malls which act also as community centers versus pure shopping Mecca’s back in the states).  Who doesn’t participate in these heavily sponsored and branded events?  Apple alone.  So it’s not always a cold evaluation of the merits of each vendor’s products that determines loyalty.  It’s often quite the opposite; a cult of brand instilled by flashy bright lights and sexy young females parading onstage. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 40 of 59
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,091moderator
    melgross said:
    I would like to know how many older iPhone are given away, and how many are traded in to the phone company when a new model is purchased after the standard two years. Nothing here mentions that. We also really don’t know what happens to those phones that are traded in. I assume they’re refurbished and resold. But we have no numbers for it.
    But if they are refurbished and/or resold they are not a significant number in Apple’s reported unit sales, because the vast number are being traded in not to Apple but resold by their owners directly or by the Gazelles of the world.  Apple never touches those iPhones and yet they find themselves in new hands, and still in Apple’s ecosystem, on its App and content stores and inspiring cross sales of other Apple products.  
    watto_cobra
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