ARM processor for Macs coming in 2020 or 2021, Apple car in 2023 says Ming-Chi Kuo
The symbiotic relationship between Apple and TSMC is expected to continue for at least five years, with chips from the foundry expected to pop up in Macs no later than 2021, and in Apple's long-awaited car effort between 2023 and 2025, if Ming-Chi Kuo is correct.
In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, Ming-Chi Kuo of TF Securities expects that TSMC will continue to be the sole supplier for both the "A13" in 2019 and "A14" in 2020. Kuo also predicts that Mac models will adopt Apple's A-series processor in some form starting 2020 or 2021, with four benefits predicted.
The main benefit for Apple would be a "full-stack" control of all of the Mac, like it has for the iPhone and iPad. Additionally, it could reap lower expenses associated with building a Mac, and glean a higher market share from a potentially lower price. A fourth factor, differentiation from competitors' products is a double-edged sword, however, as an ARM processor would cut back on virtualization solutions that the "pro" market sometimes rely on.
The shift to an ARM Mac has been predicted for some time. The shift won't be immediate, and will likely start on Apple's low-end, like the MacBook and possibly a Mac mini migration.
Kuo also believes that Apple's advanced driver assistance systems in a still-evolving Apple Car project will get a TSMC chip at launch at some point between 2023 and 2025, with it supporting either high automation of driver's tasks, or complete automation, including navigation and driving.
Wednesday's note also reiterates previous remarks Kuo has made about the iPhone XR. Kuo believes that Apple will sell up to 83 million iPhones in total in the company's first fiscal quarter, which ends on December 31. This is an improvement from Kuo's previous prediction of up to 80 million, which was on the table prior to Monday's note.
Additionally, the iPhone XR is expected to defeat a "low seasonality" after the holiday quarter. Instead of a near-50 percent drop that the iPhone 8 saw after the holiday, Kuo believes that the iPhone XR is expected to only drop 30 percent, a favorable comparison to the overall industry's about 40 percent drop.
In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, Ming-Chi Kuo of TF Securities expects that TSMC will continue to be the sole supplier for both the "A13" in 2019 and "A14" in 2020. Kuo also predicts that Mac models will adopt Apple's A-series processor in some form starting 2020 or 2021, with four benefits predicted.
The main benefit for Apple would be a "full-stack" control of all of the Mac, like it has for the iPhone and iPad. Additionally, it could reap lower expenses associated with building a Mac, and glean a higher market share from a potentially lower price. A fourth factor, differentiation from competitors' products is a double-edged sword, however, as an ARM processor would cut back on virtualization solutions that the "pro" market sometimes rely on.
The shift to an ARM Mac has been predicted for some time. The shift won't be immediate, and will likely start on Apple's low-end, like the MacBook and possibly a Mac mini migration.
Kuo also believes that Apple's advanced driver assistance systems in a still-evolving Apple Car project will get a TSMC chip at launch at some point between 2023 and 2025, with it supporting either high automation of driver's tasks, or complete automation, including navigation and driving.
Wednesday's note also reiterates previous remarks Kuo has made about the iPhone XR. Kuo believes that Apple will sell up to 83 million iPhones in total in the company's first fiscal quarter, which ends on December 31. This is an improvement from Kuo's previous prediction of up to 80 million, which was on the table prior to Monday's note.
Additionally, the iPhone XR is expected to defeat a "low seasonality" after the holiday quarter. Instead of a near-50 percent drop that the iPhone 8 saw after the holiday, Kuo believes that the iPhone XR is expected to only drop 30 percent, a favorable comparison to the overall industry's about 40 percent drop.
Comments
Perhaps they are waiting until the ARM processors are fast enough not just to run desktop apps (which they probably already are) but also to run a Rosetta style Intel emulator.
I guess it's those kind of predictions that keeps AI posting his crap and then defending it by stating how he's usually correct.
PS: The sun will come up tomorrow. Bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow… there'll be sun.
I’m hoping Apple offers lease or buy luxury autonomous vehicles.
I hope Apple takes the opportunity to bring segmented Intel features like an AVX-512 equivalent down to more products. ARM has variable length SIMD so they can scale from 128 up to 2048.
Apple’s not building a “car” they’re building a platform to connect to Apple services. One of those “services” could be autonomously driving you to work. That service might cost you $2 each way, or be bundled into a subscription. It might even be ad supported.
Other Example:
You’ll be passing a Starbucks in 5 minutes... Would you like me to reroute, and order you your usual? Paid for with Apple Pay of course.
Apple would have multiple revenue streams from this... Starbucks pays them, you pay them, ad companies pay them. Example: The temperature will be 30 degrees next week. Can we interest you in a new coat for 20% off... People in cars are a captive audience.
a well put together head unit and cameras would be great, both aftermarket, and it has to be said, if there is any chance of being successful, OEM.
Although Apple doesn’t do OEM.
Remember when Ming-Chi Kuo changed jobs, and wasn't going to be reporting on Apple any more? Doesn't seem to have stopped him from throwing stuff at the wall and waiting to see what sticks.
Maybe he isn't a person, Ming-Chi Kuo is an alias used to conceal the real identity of one of the industry's most elite analysts. You know, like James Bond. Every few years the old one retires and gets replaced by a new one. Imagine the furore if they ever picked a female Ming-Chi Kuo.
Anyway, for Apple to go to fully ARM in the Mac, I think something's going to have to happen with Intel. The whole industry is caught up in x86 compatibilty. Apple could move their entire line of computers to ARM tomorrow, provided they have processors with the necessary power (which the A Series aren't yet), except for providing continued support to a Windows based Enterprise world. One of two things needs to happen - either Windows needs to cease to be relevant as either an applications platform or a server platform (yes, I know you have Linux servers, but not everyone does and some services require Windows), or everyone needs to abandon the zombie x86 platform and shift all their code base to ARM. (Given how much luck MS have had with shifting their own Office suite, that seems unlikely in the short term.)
I think what's actually going to happen (and I have no actual knowledge or inside information to back this up) is that the T Series (or its succcessor) ARM is going to take over more and more of the front end OS, freeing up the x86 for heavier application loads. Eventually, the x86 will only be necessary for the high end apps, and will essentially be treated as a remote application server by the OS. Ultimately, they might push all of the Pro apps into the Cloud, so that a local x86 (or successor) CPU isn't needed. And we end up back with a Terminal-Server model by stealth.