ARM processor for Macs coming in 2020 or 2021, Apple car in 2023 says Ming-Chi Kuo

Posted:
in macOS edited October 17
The symbiotic relationship between Apple and TSMC is expected to continue for at least five years, with chips from the foundry expected to pop up in Macs no later than 2021, and in Apple's long-awaited car effort between 2023 and 2025, if Ming-Chi Kuo is correct.

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In a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, Ming-Chi Kuo of TF Securities expects that TSMC will continue to be the sole supplier for both the "A13" in 2019 and "A14" in 2020. Kuo also predicts that Mac models will adopt Apple's A-series processor in some form starting 2020 or 2021, with four benefits predicted.

The main benefit for Apple would be a "full-stack" control of all of the Mac, like it has for the iPhone and iPad. Additionally, it could reap lower expenses associated with building a Mac, and glean a higher market share from a potentially lower price. A fourth factor, differentiation from competitors' products is a double-edged sword, however, as an ARM processor would cut back on virtualization solutions that the "pro" market sometimes rely on.

The shift to ARM in the Mac has been predicted for some time. The shift won't be immediate, and will likely start on Apple's low-end, like the MacBook and possibly a Mac mini migration.

Kuo also believes that Apple's advanced driver assistance systems in a still-evolving Apple Car project will get a TSMC chip at launch at some point between 2023 and 2025, with it supporting either high automation of driver's tasks, or complete automation, including navigation and driving.

Wednesday's note also reiterates previous remarks Kuo has made about the iPhone XR. Kuo believes that Apple will sell up to 83 million iPhones in total in the company's first fiscal quarter, which ends on December 31. This is an improvement from Kuo's previous prediction of up to 80 million, which was on the table prior to Monday's note.

Additionally, the iPhone XR is expected to defeat a "low seasonality" after the holiday quarter. Instead of a near-50 percent drop that the iPhone 8 saw after the holiday, Kuo believes that the iPhone XR is expected to only drop 30 percent, a favorable comparison to the overall industry's about 40 percent drop.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 63
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 4,335member
    I think we have a person connect dots from the past and extrapolating them into the future and making some predictions.
    chasmolsclaire1watto_cobra
  • Reply 2 of 63
    evilutionevilution Posts: 1,332member
    I thought Kuo was done spouting stuff he made up about Apple?
    SpamSandwichmwhiteolsmacxpresswozwozwatto_cobra
  • Reply 3 of 63
    asciiascii Posts: 5,941member
    I wish Apple would be a bit more aggressive about moving the Mac to ARM. I have been through processor transitions with Apple before and they were not painful.

    Perhaps they are waiting until the ARM processors are fast enough not just to run desktop apps (which they probably already are) but also to run a Rosetta style Intel emulator.
    bikertwinGeorgeBMacwatto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 63
    ...an ARM processor would cut back on virtualization solutions that the "pro" market sometimes rely on...
    Absolutely this. I've been able to replace my company-provided crappy HP and Dell machines with Macs over the years because I'm able to virtualize Windows for certain corporate applications that require it, as well as for being able to compile code that targets the Windows Server environment. I also virtualize Linux frequently as my development needs require. The loss of Intel CPUs powering Macs will render virtualizing impossible, at least for Windows, and we'll have to see how well the Apple processors are able to run emulation in place of virtualization.
    wozwozcroprGeorgeBMac
  • Reply 5 of 63
    qwweraqwwera Posts: 251member
    Arm chips of course. Absolutely happen.

    Car? I don’t think so. There is something so cool in a company that can sell high margin items in tiny little boxes that can be shipped via ups and fed ex and returned the same way vs something that has so many liabilities, needs tires, upholstery, brakes and servicing in garages and all the headaches that go with that. Yeah no way. This is the Apple TV all over again.

    Let’s remember Ford is stopping car production to focus mostly on trucks and commercial vehicles. Tesla is not making any money really. A car factory? Where? China? The US?

    It just sounds like a terrible idea all the way around.
    gatorguy
  • Reply 6 of 63
    Ming is coloring outside the lines again. Every time he pretends to be Karnak he gets it as wrong as Gene Munster.
    qwweraolswatto_cobra
  • Reply 7 of 63
    SoliSoli Posts: 8,403member
    Ming is coloring outside the lines again. Every time he pretends to be Karnak he gets it as wrong as Gene Munster.
    Not always. This past week he stated that next year's iPhones will be as waterproof as this year's.

    I guess it's those kind of predictions that keeps AI posting his crap and then defending it by stating how he's usually correct.


    PS: The sun will come up tomorrow. Bet your bottom dollar that tomorrow… there'll be sun.
    SpamSandwichStrangeDayswatto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 63
     I expect Apple is more interested in transportation as a service, rather than a car to sell to an individual.   There’s a lot of room for Apple to develop services around such an offering as a relates to the ease of use their clientele expect.
    qwwerachasmh2pbikertwinwatto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 63
    LordeHawk said:
     I expect Apple is more interested in transportation as a service, rather than a car to sell to an individual.   There’s a lot of room for Apple to develop services around such an offering as a relates to the ease of use their clientele expect.
    The reason I don’t use Uber, Lyft, taxis or buses is the same reason I like having my own car. I’m an adult who can afford it and using any of those alternatives usually involves a dirty, smelly or slow vehicle. 

    I’m hoping Apple offers lease or buy luxury autonomous vehicles.
    edited October 17 rob53beowulfschmidtwatto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 63
    mazda 3smazda 3s Posts: 1,540member
    LordeHawk said:
     I expect Apple is more interested in transportation as a service, rather than a car to sell to an individual.   There’s a lot of room for Apple to develop services around such an offering as a relates to the ease of use their clientele expect.
    The reason I don’t use Uber, Lyft, taxis or buses is the same reason I like having my own car. I’m an adult who can afford it and using any of those alternatives usually involves a dirty, smelly or slow vehicle. 
    What do you do on business/vacation? I work from home and drive myself 99% of the time, but for the handful of times that I have to fly around the country for work, I rely on Uber/Lyft. It's convenient, fast and gets the job done.
    SoliJWSCbikertwinaplnub
  • Reply 11 of 63
    chasmchasm Posts: 994member
    Looking over Mr. Kuo's track record -- basically the farther out he predicts stuff, the more he walks it back later (and everyone forgets how wrong he got it initially). He's really much better at guessing/"predicting" safe stuff (which much of this latest pronouncement is) or things that are imminent. So ... chances are high that the ARM thing will more-or-less happen (though I would expect Apple to make Intel chips an option on some models as a continuing option for those that need the best virtualisation. He's way off on the car thing, let's just leave it at that.
    SpamSandwichtmaywatto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 63
    irelandireland Posts: 17,470member
    Some people want an Apple car and I just want to see a new Mac notebook with a keyboard I like.
    wozwozwallymmario
  • Reply 13 of 63
    SoliSoli Posts: 8,403member
    LordeHawk said:
     I expect Apple is more interested in transportation as a service, rather than a car to sell to an individual.   There’s a lot of room for Apple to develop services around such an offering as a relates to the ease of use their clientele expect.
    The reason I don’t use Uber, Lyft, taxis or buses is the same reason I like having my own car. I’m an adult who can afford it and using any of those alternatives usually involves a dirty, smelly or slow vehicle. 

    I’m hoping Apple offers lease or buy luxury autonomous vehicles.
    What does being an "adult who can afford it" have to do with owning an automobile? Cars have a wide range of prices, including teenagers being given one or paying just a few hundred dollars for one and they probably can't afford to use cabs or ride sharing services too often. Would someone who lives in a major city, like NY, not be an adult or have less money than you because they don't drive in the city because there's no convenient place to park? What about those that take trains in Europe? What about people that responsibly will take a cab or ride share to meet friend for drinks instead of driving while potentially over the legal limit? I'd say these people were "adult" for being responsible and willing to fork over the extra cost to being driven over driving their own vehicle.
    StrangeDayssarthos
  • Reply 14 of 63
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 2,201member
    qwwera said:
    Arm chips of course. Absolutely happen.

    Car? I don’t think so. There is something so cool in a company that can sell high margin items in tiny little boxes that can be shipped via ups and fed ex and returned the same way vs something that has so many liabilities, needs tires, upholstery, brakes and servicing in garages and all the headaches that go with that. Yeah no way. This is the Apple TV all over again.

    Let’s remember Ford is stopping car production to focus mostly on trucks and commercial vehicles. Tesla is not making any money really. A car factory? Where? China? The US?

    It just sounds like a terrible idea all the way around.
    Concur. I am highly skeptical of an Apple Car. I can accept that Apple would be interested in tech associated with cars - maps, infotainment systems, even luxury interiors like seats, lighting systems, HUD displays ot AI safety systems, or even performance monitoring systems. A whole car? As granpaw usta say: "no money in that."
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 15 of 63
    tipootipoo Posts: 975member
    Can't wait. A12 is up there with Skylake server performance per core, and NOT normalized per clock, just core vs core. 

    I hope Apple takes the opportunity to bring segmented Intel features like an AVX-512 equivalent down to more products. ARM has variable length SIMD so they can scale from 128 up to 2048. 
    edited October 17 Soliwatto_cobra
  • Reply 16 of 63
    eightzero said:
    qwwera said:
    Arm chips of course. Absolutely happen.

    Car? I don’t think so. There is something so cool in a company that can sell high margin items in tiny little boxes that can be shipped via ups and fed ex and returned the same way vs something that has so many liabilities, needs tires, upholstery, brakes and servicing in garages and all the headaches that go with that. Yeah no way. This is the Apple TV all over again.

    Let’s remember Ford is stopping car production to focus mostly on trucks and commercial vehicles. Tesla is not making any money really. A car factory? Where? China? The US?

    It just sounds like a terrible idea all the way around.
    Concur. I am highly skeptical of an Apple Car. I can accept that Apple would be interested in tech associated with cars - maps, infotainment systems, even luxury interiors like seats, lighting systems, HUD displays ot AI safety systems, or even performance monitoring systems. A whole car? As granpaw usta say: "no money in that."
    Apple hasn’t even built an Apple TV... as in a real TV.  What they have is connectivity device to connect to Apple services.

    Apple’s not building a “car” they’re building a platform to connect to Apple services.  One of those “services” could be autonomously driving you to work.  That service might cost you $2 each way, or be bundled into a subscription. It might even be ad supported.  

    Other Example:
    You’ll be passing a Starbucks in 5 minutes... Would you like me to reroute, and order you your usual?  Paid for with Apple Pay of course.

    Apple would have multiple revenue streams from this... Starbucks pays them, you pay them, ad companies pay them. Example:  The temperature will be 30 degrees next week.  Can we interest you in a new coat for 20% off... People in cars are a captive audience.
    edited October 17 entropysJWSCwatto_cobra
  • Reply 17 of 63
    entropysentropys Posts: 1,374member
    The first step in the automotive world would be a properly holistic infotainment system.

    a well put together  head unit and cameras would be great, both aftermarket, and it has to be said, if there is any chance of being successful, OEM.  

    Although Apple doesn’t do OEM.
  • Reply 18 of 63
    anomeanome Posts: 1,174member

    Remember when Ming-Chi Kuo changed jobs, and wasn't going to be reporting on Apple any more? Doesn't seem to have stopped him from throwing stuff at the wall and waiting to see what sticks.

    Maybe he isn't a person, Ming-Chi Kuo is an alias used to conceal the real identity of one of the industry's most elite analysts. You know, like James Bond. Every few years the old one retires and gets replaced by a new one. Imagine the furore if they ever picked a female Ming-Chi Kuo.

    Anyway, for Apple to go to fully ARM in the Mac, I think something's going to have to happen with Intel. The whole industry is caught up in x86 compatibilty. Apple could move their entire line of computers to ARM tomorrow, provided they have processors with the necessary power (which the A Series aren't yet), except for providing continued support to a Windows based Enterprise world. One of two things needs to happen - either Windows needs to cease to be relevant as either an applications platform or a server platform (yes, I know you have Linux servers, but not everyone does and some services require Windows), or everyone needs to abandon the zombie x86 platform and shift all their code base to ARM. (Given how much luck MS have had with shifting their own Office suite, that seems unlikely in the short term.)

    I think what's actually going to happen (and I have no actual knowledge or inside information to back this up) is that the T Series (or its succcessor) ARM is going to take over more and more of the front end OS, freeing up the x86 for heavier application loads. Eventually, the x86 will only be necessary for the high end apps, and will essentially be treated as a remote application server by the OS. Ultimately, they might push all of the Pro apps into the Cloud, so that a local x86 (or successor) CPU isn't needed. And we end up back with a Terminal-Server model by stealth.

    watto_cobra
  • Reply 19 of 63
    anome said:

    Remember when Ming-Chi Kuo changed jobs, and wasn't going to be reporting on Apple any more? Doesn't seem to have stopped him from throwing stuff at the wall and waiting to see what sticks.

    Maybe he isn't a person, Ming-Chi Kuo is an alias used to conceal the real identity of one of the industry's most elite analysts. You know, like James Bond. Every few years the old one retires and gets replaced by a new one. Imagine the furore if they ever picked a female Ming-Chi Kuo.

     :D !!!
    claire1
  • Reply 20 of 63
    JWSCJWSC Posts: 252member
    If Apple does move to A Series on the Mac, loss of virtualization becomes a real concern for the 3-5% of Mac users who need it.  Could Apple offer a Pro model with a dual CPU configuration?  Probably.  But it would greatly complicate the MacOS needed to run such a thing.  Would such an OS be worth Apple’s time and effort to maintain?  Not at all sure about that.
    watto_cobra
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