Apple will no longer report iPhone, Mac and iPad unit sales

12346»

Comments

  • Reply 101 of 117
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    We are basically 'post iPhone' now (in company-wide terms) and after three years of flat growth, unit numbers possibly don't look too good going forward (in growth terms). 

    Apple has never had the kind of high-end premiun competition (at least on the current scale) as it has now and is (and has been) trying to open new revenue streams.

    Services is growing, (TV) content creation will probably go live next year and the car project will follow. Plus all the other areas.

    However, flat unit sales are not nice and any dip in handset sales would just make things worse from a stock perspective because iPhone sales have been the most important indicator for years. Giving a running commentary on unit sales (each earnings  call) and reporting things staying the same - or possibly getting worse is something to be avoided. 

    While iPhone X may have been the 'most popular' model this year, and in spite of all the joy with Q1 numbers, the reality is that sales are still more or less flat, again. Little has changed.

    We know people are being asked to pay more for the newer phones and at some point they won't want to (or won't be able to) and that point might be close. This year's refresh was not really that spectacular. To the point that many considered the Apple Watch to be the real star of the 2018 refresh.

    In a 'post iPhone' Apple world, it shouldn't be surprising to see a decision like this. Just look at the guidance for the next quarter. There will be another Q1 blow out but the revenue mix will be far more spread out, and as the year passes, iPhone unit sales might show signs of fatigue.

    By not giving unit sales, Apple gets some breathing space until the next refresh, which will need to be stronger than this year, but won't carry same importance as in previous years because other areas will have been strengthened by then and the content library will probably be rolling out.

    iPhone sales could take off of course, but I think Apple really doesn't expect that to happen and they are prefering to err on the side of caution.

    Apple obviously (and understandably) wants to play the decision down and say unit sales are less relevant. In a post iPhone Apple world it is true, but those numbers are still very much relevant nonetheless.
    While some of what you say is certainly the case (yes, Apple is obviously diversifying revenue streams) your take on it seems to suggest you believe that iPhone sales are bound to flatten out and Apple is reacting to
    that by attempting to charge higher prices.  But Apple is a huge data mining operation.  The company certainly has all the sales and marketing data it needs to dial the iPhone unit sales number where they want it, growing unit sales 20% year over year if they so wish; it would simply be a matter of producing iPhone models targeting certain market demographics at appropriate prices.  Because there’s demand all up and down the market, even here in the Philippines where most can’t afford one but nevertheless aspire to get their hands on one.  If Apple truly wanted to play the unit sales game against all comers, do you really think they couldn’t succeed?  

    Apple is in a different game.  The company has looked at price elasticity and decided it can maintain current unit numbers, even modestly growing them, while netting significantly more in ASP, by continuing up market away from those who have been attempting to follow Apple into the premium space.  That’s why you’re seeing A-series performance numbers that are running away from the competition, Face ID coming to the iPad, and other unmatched technology advances.  Did you even read Above Avalon’s recent article (under his free Weekly Articles section) regarding the grey market for iPhones and what that means?  I guess not.  You spout a lot about Apple’s supposed competition, championing one vendor in particular, but you show a remarkable, perhaps deliberately obtuse, lack of insight into the smartphone business.  

    But hey, thanks for playing.  
    I think you are at odds with yourself.

    Apple has never seen competition on its high end turf like it has now. To the point that this year's innovation in the handset market didn't come from Apple. If you want bleeding edge technology (lots do) you wouldn't buy this year's iPhone. That has been the reality of 2018. And you know that Apple has been sheltered from a large chunk of that competition on its home turf, which just happens to be the world's second largest smartphone market.

    Oh. That 'one vendor'. People are asking why its latest phone hasn't appeared on the D0X Mark listing yet. Rumours claim the results would be too far ahead of the pack as to be detrimental to itself. As the iPhone X Max didn't top the current board leader - which is already six months old - and the current leader is made by that 'one vendor', it is rumoured that the Mate 20 Pro won't get a listing until something from the competition tops the P20 Pro. You will counter that the listing is worthless and mostly serves for marketing but marketing is one of the cogs that moves this industry.

    It's not that Apple can't play the 'unit sales game and succeed'. It can, but at what price (no pun intended)?

    It's been flat on unit sales for three years now - in spite of attempts to open up its spread (both on models and pricing). So that is flat sales in spite of those actions. Care to imagine how things would have looked if they hadn't taken that action?

    Given the situation, one of the possible options is to compete with itself and produce new phones (not old phones) for the mid tier and try to differentiate them enough to shore up premium sales. It hasn't chosen that option - yet.

    But 2019 is served and the iPhones - for all their marketing - haven't really turned heads and now won't do so until the end of 2019. That is a lot of quarters and Samsung  (S10) is going to hit hard as soon as the gates open on  the New Year. Huawei (P30 Pro) will follow soon after and right around Apple the time Apple has its 2019 refresh, both vendors will launch the latest Note and Mates. 

    So Apple has an expensive phone (made more expensive by sales tax and currency realities in certain regions) that doesn't really offer the bells and whistles that the price warrants.

    It looks like Apple doesn't plan for larger unit shipments and may in fact be preparing for some contraction.

    Apple has the ultimate card to know the state of its current market: Apple ID.

    It knows absolutely everything it needs to know about the state of play. Active accounts and if users are bringing in extra revenues, how many devices are linked to each account, which devices go off radar, the family sphere of users.

    I have speculated in the past that the so called 'super cycle' might have actually happened, but simply didn't register in terms of far higher unit sales. Apple always knew exactly what happened of course and will never make that data public.

    Given the possible state of play, this decision not to provide unit sales makes sense for the company. Analysts will continue to speculate, it's their job after all, and the stock will twitch on occasion but that is no different to today and has no bearing on anything.

    In a post iPhone Apple world, the focus will move to other areas, iPhone included of course, but with less weight. Just like the Mac today. Important but not the be all and end all.

    More bullshit from the Huawei troll/shill.

    Newsflash: There have been countless "iPhone killers" over the last 7-8 years that were supposed to knock the iPhone off its perch at the high end. To date, not one of them has succeeded. The CLOSEST anyone got was the Galaxy S4 back in 2014, which managed to sell 10 million units in its first month. Since then it's all been downhill and nobody has ever come close since. What makes you think (besides being delusional) that Huawei is going to steal sales from Apple where everyone else has failed? Nobody cross shops the superior iPhone to the inferior Huawei flagships.

    So you come up with ridiculous theories (poor Huawei isn't allowed to sell in the US) to imply that if they playing field were equal that Huawei would magically outsell the iPhone. The reason Huawei won't outsell the iPhone is because they are inferior devices. Plain and simple.

    No bleeding edge technology from Apple? Only to someone who doesn't understand technology. Your precious Kirin 980 didn't turn out to be nearly as good as you predicted, so you had to try and redefine what makes a processor advanced (like thinking including a cellular modem in the chip somehow makes it better).
    Indeed. For a hilarious look at his preferred knockoff brand’s “innovation”, check this out:


    ...they even stole the pairing screen! Copying Apple is all these chinese knockoffs know to do. That their ripoff is called “Honor” is a hoot. 
    edited November 2018 tmayjony0SpamSandwich
  • Reply 102 of 117
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,439member
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    We are basically 'post iPhone' now (in company-wide terms) and after three years of flat growth, unit numbers possibly don't look too good going forward (in growth terms). 

    Apple has never had the kind of high-end premiun competition (at least on the current scale) as it has now and is (and has been) trying to open new revenue streams.

    Services is growing, (TV) content creation will probably go live next year and the car project will follow. Plus all the other areas.

    However, flat unit sales are not nice and any dip in handset sales would just make things worse from a stock perspective because iPhone sales have been the most important indicator for years. Giving a running commentary on unit sales (each earnings  call) and reporting things staying the same - or possibly getting worse is something to be avoided. 

    While iPhone X may have been the 'most popular' model this year, and in spite of all the joy with Q1 numbers, the reality is that sales are still more or less flat, again. Little has changed.

    We know people are being asked to pay more for the newer phones and at some point they won't want to (or won't be able to) and that point might be close. This year's refresh was not really that spectacular. To the point that many considered the Apple Watch to be the real star of the 2018 refresh.

    In a 'post iPhone' Apple world, it shouldn't be surprising to see a decision like this. Just look at the guidance for the next quarter. There will be another Q1 blow out but the revenue mix will be far more spread out, and as the year passes, iPhone unit sales might show signs of fatigue.

    By not giving unit sales, Apple gets some breathing space until the next refresh, which will need to be stronger than this year, but won't carry same importance as in previous years because other areas will have been strengthened by then and the content library will probably be rolling out.

    iPhone sales could take off of course, but I think Apple really doesn't expect that to happen and they are prefering to err on the side of caution.

    Apple obviously (and understandably) wants to play the decision down and say unit sales are less relevant. In a post iPhone Apple world it is true, but those numbers are still very much relevant nonetheless.
    While some of what you say is certainly the case (yes, Apple is obviously diversifying revenue streams) your take on it seems to suggest you believe that iPhone sales are bound to flatten out and Apple is reacting to
    that by attempting to charge higher prices.  But Apple is a huge data mining operation.  The company certainly has all the sales and marketing data it needs to dial the iPhone unit sales number where they want it, growing unit sales 20% year over year if they so wish; it would simply be a matter of producing iPhone models targeting certain market demographics at appropriate prices.  Because there’s demand all up and down the market, even here in the Philippines where most can’t afford one but nevertheless aspire to get their hands on one.  If Apple truly wanted to play the unit sales game against all comers, do you really think they couldn’t succeed?  

    Apple is in a different game.  The company has looked at price elasticity and decided it can maintain current unit numbers, even modestly growing them, while netting significantly more in ASP, by continuing up market away from those who have been attempting to follow Apple into the premium space.  That’s why you’re seeing A-series performance numbers that are running away from the competition, Face ID coming to the iPad, and other unmatched technology advances.  Did you even read Above Avalon’s recent article (under his free Weekly Articles section) regarding the grey market for iPhones and what that means?  I guess not.  You spout a lot about Apple’s supposed competition, championing one vendor in particular, but you show a remarkable, perhaps deliberately obtuse, lack of insight into the smartphone business.  

    But hey, thanks for playing.  
    I think you are at odds with yourself.

    Apple has never seen competition on its high end turf like it has now. To the point that this year's innovation in the handset market didn't come from Apple. If you want bleeding edge technology (lots do) you wouldn't buy this year's iPhone. That has been the reality of 2018. And you know that Apple has been sheltered from a large chunk of that competition on its home turf, which just happens to be the world's second largest smartphone market.

    Oh. That 'one vendor'. People are asking why its latest phone hasn't appeared on the D0X Mark listing yet. Rumours claim the results would be too far ahead of the pack as to be detrimental to itself. As the iPhone X Max didn't top the current board leader - which is already six months old - and the current leader is made by that 'one vendor', it is rumoured that the Mate 20 Pro won't get a listing until something from the competition tops the P20 Pro. You will counter that the listing is worthless and mostly serves for marketing but marketing is one of the cogs that moves this industry.

    It's not that Apple can't play the 'unit sales game and succeed'. It can, but at what price (no pun intended)?

    It's been flat on unit sales for three years now - in spite of attempts to open up its spread (both on models and pricing). So that is flat sales in spite of those actions. Care to imagine how things would have looked if they hadn't taken that action?

    Given the situation, one of the possible options is to compete with itself and produce new phones (not old phones) for the mid tier and try to differentiate them enough to shore up premium sales. It hasn't chosen that option - yet.

    But 2019 is served and the iPhones - for all their marketing - haven't really turned heads and now won't do so until the end of 2019. That is a lot of quarters and Samsung  (S10) is going to hit hard as soon as the gates open on  the New Year. Huawei (P30 Pro) will follow soon after and right around Apple the time Apple has its 2019 refresh, both vendors will launch the latest Note and Mates. 

    So Apple has an expensive phone (made more expensive by sales tax and currency realities in certain regions) that doesn't really offer the bells and whistles that the price warrants.

    It looks like Apple doesn't plan for larger unit shipments and may in fact be preparing for some contraction.

    Apple has the ultimate card to know the state of its current market: Apple ID.

    It knows absolutely everything it needs to know about the state of play. Active accounts and if users are bringing in extra revenues, how many devices are linked to each account, which devices go off radar, the family sphere of users.

    I have speculated in the past that the so called 'super cycle' might have actually happened, but simply didn't register in terms of far higher unit sales. Apple always knew exactly what happened of course and will never make that data public.

    Given the possible state of play, this decision not to provide unit sales makes sense for the company. Analysts will continue to speculate, it's their job after all, and the stock will twitch on occasion but that is no different to today and has no bearing on anything.

    In a post iPhone Apple world, the focus will move to other areas, iPhone included of course, but with less weight. Just like the Mac today. Important but not the be all and end all.

    More bullshit from the Huawei troll/shill.

    Newsflash: There have been countless "iPhone killers" over the last 7-8 years that were supposed to knock the iPhone off its perch at the high end. To date, not one of them has succeeded. The CLOSEST anyone got was the Galaxy S4 back in 2014, which managed to sell 10 million units in its first month. Since then it's all been downhill and nobody has ever come close since. What makes you think (besides being delusional) that Huawei is going to steal sales from Apple where everyone else has failed? Nobody cross shops the superior iPhone to the inferior Huawei flagships.

    So you come up with ridiculous theories (poor Huawei isn't allowed to sell in the US) to imply that if they playing field were equal that Huawei would magically outsell the iPhone. The reason Huawei won't outsell the iPhone is because they are inferior devices. Plain and simple.

    No bleeding edge technology from Apple? Only to someone who doesn't understand technology. Your precious Kirin 980 didn't turn out to be nearly as good as you predicted, so you had to try and redefine what makes a processor advanced (like thinking including a cellular modem in the chip somehow makes it better).
    Indeed. For a hilarious look at his preferred knockoff brand’s “innovation”, check this out:


    ...they even stole the pairing screen! Copying Apple is all these chinese knockoffs know to do. That their ripoff is called “Honor” is a hoot. 
    Avon B7 is a funny guy. 

    Always talking about premium Chinese smartphones, especially Huawei's P20 products, which he will never purchase due to price. just like most of the Android OS buyers. It's a halo device, not destined for even moderate sales, but look at those specs!

    Funny thing.

    Avon B7 isn't even close to being correct about Apple services.

    https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/9/2/the-apple-services-myth

    Yeah, the author of that stated just a few days ago that he wouldn't change a thing in that article from two years ago

    From the link;

    "The Actual Story

    Apple's original services narrative has been taken completely out of context. Management's goal in pointing out service revenue was to emphasize the value found within the iOS ecosystem, not to explain an upcoming pivot away from hardware.

    Here's Tim Cook on Apple's 1Q16 earnings call explaining Apple's services business: 

    "[A] growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. Because our customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content, and other services. 

    They also are very likely to buy other Apple products or replace the one they own. And because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will also love and use it often. 

    So, as a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has recently reached a major milestone, crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. This is an unbelievable asset for us. Because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues."

    Cook is making the case that Apple's service business is seeing strong growth because of the growth in the install base driven by hardware sales. Nowhere did Cook discuss a new Apple directive aimed at increasing services revenue. Specifically, Cook is taking the information found in Exhibit 1 and flipping it on its head."

    Avon B7 has no concept of the value of an ecosystem and a growing installed base, hence why his argument of choice always comes down to device hardware spec comparisons and price.

    For the record, EMUI sucks sweaty balls, and I can't imagine any iPhone user putting up with it.
  • Reply 103 of 117
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 7,891member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    We are basically 'post iPhone' now (in company-wide terms) and after three years of flat growth, unit numbers possibly don't look too good going forward (in growth terms). 

    Apple has never had the kind of high-end premiun competition (at least on the current scale) as it has now and is (and has been) trying to open new revenue streams.

    Services is growing, (TV) content creation will probably go live next year and the car project will follow. Plus all the other areas.

    However, flat unit sales are not nice and any dip in handset sales would just make things worse from a stock perspective because iPhone sales have been the most important indicator for years. Giving a running commentary on unit sales (each earnings  call) and reporting things staying the same - or possibly getting worse is something to be avoided. 

    While iPhone X may have been the 'most popular' model this year, and in spite of all the joy with Q1 numbers, the reality is that sales are still more or less flat, again. Little has changed.

    We know people are being asked to pay more for the newer phones and at some point they won't want to (or won't be able to) and that point might be close. This year's refresh was not really that spectacular. To the point that many considered the Apple Watch to be the real star of the 2018 refresh.

    In a 'post iPhone' Apple world, it shouldn't be surprising to see a decision like this. Just look at the guidance for the next quarter. There will be another Q1 blow out but the revenue mix will be far more spread out, and as the year passes, iPhone unit sales might show signs of fatigue.

    By not giving unit sales, Apple gets some breathing space until the next refresh, which will need to be stronger than this year, but won't carry same importance as in previous years because other areas will have been strengthened by then and the content library will probably be rolling out.

    iPhone sales could take off of course, but I think Apple really doesn't expect that to happen and they are prefering to err on the side of caution.

    Apple obviously (and understandably) wants to play the decision down and say unit sales are less relevant. In a post iPhone Apple world it is true, but those numbers are still very much relevant nonetheless.
    While some of what you say is certainly the case (yes, Apple is obviously diversifying revenue streams) your take on it seems to suggest you believe that iPhone sales are bound to flatten out and Apple is reacting to
    that by attempting to charge higher prices.  But Apple is a huge data mining operation.  The company certainly has all the sales and marketing data it needs to dial the iPhone unit sales number where they want it, growing unit sales 20% year over year if they so wish; it would simply be a matter of producing iPhone models targeting certain market demographics at appropriate prices.  Because there’s demand all up and down the market, even here in the Philippines where most can’t afford one but nevertheless aspire to get their hands on one.  If Apple truly wanted to play the unit sales game against all comers, do you really think they couldn’t succeed?  

    Apple is in a different game.  The company has looked at price elasticity and decided it can maintain current unit numbers, even modestly growing them, while netting significantly more in ASP, by continuing up market away from those who have been attempting to follow Apple into the premium space.  That’s why you’re seeing A-series performance numbers that are running away from the competition, Face ID coming to the iPad, and other unmatched technology advances.  Did you even read Above Avalon’s recent article (under his free Weekly Articles section) regarding the grey market for iPhones and what that means?  I guess not.  You spout a lot about Apple’s supposed competition, championing one vendor in particular, but you show a remarkable, perhaps deliberately obtuse, lack of insight into the smartphone business.  

    But hey, thanks for playing.  
    I think you are at odds with yourself.

    Apple has never seen competition on its high end turf like it has now. To the point that this year's innovation in the handset market didn't come from Apple. If you want bleeding edge technology (lots do) you wouldn't buy this year's iPhone. That has been the reality of 2018. And you know that Apple has been sheltered from a large chunk of that competition on its home turf, which just happens to be the world's second largest smartphone market.

    Oh. That 'one vendor'. People are asking why its latest phone hasn't appeared on the D0X Mark listing yet. Rumours claim the results would be too far ahead of the pack as to be detrimental to itself. As the iPhone X Max didn't top the current board leader - which is already six months old - and the current leader is made by that 'one vendor', it is rumoured that the Mate 20 Pro won't get a listing until something from the competition tops the P20 Pro. You will counter that the listing is worthless and mostly serves for marketing but marketing is one of the cogs that moves this industry.

    It's not that Apple can't play the 'unit sales game and succeed'. It can, but at what price (no pun intended)?

    It's been flat on unit sales for three years now - in spite of attempts to open up its spread (both on models and pricing). So that is flat sales in spite of those actions. Care to imagine how things would have looked if they hadn't taken that action?

    Given the situation, one of the possible options is to compete with itself and produce new phones (not old phones) for the mid tier and try to differentiate them enough to shore up premium sales. It hasn't chosen that option - yet.

    But 2019 is served and the iPhones - for all their marketing - haven't really turned heads and now won't do so until the end of 2019. That is a lot of quarters and Samsung  (S10) is going to hit hard as soon as the gates open on  the New Year. Huawei (P30 Pro) will follow soon after and right around Apple the time Apple has its 2019 refresh, both vendors will launch the latest Note and Mates. 

    So Apple has an expensive phone (made more expensive by sales tax and currency realities in certain regions) that doesn't really offer the bells and whistles that the price warrants.

    It looks like Apple doesn't plan for larger unit shipments and may in fact be preparing for some contraction.

    Apple has the ultimate card to know the state of its current market: Apple ID.

    It knows absolutely everything it needs to know about the state of play. Active accounts and if users are bringing in extra revenues, how many devices are linked to each account, which devices go off radar, the family sphere of users.

    I have speculated in the past that the so called 'super cycle' might have actually happened, but simply didn't register in terms of far higher unit sales. Apple always knew exactly what happened of course and will never make that data public.

    Given the possible state of play, this decision not to provide unit sales makes sense for the company. Analysts will continue to speculate, it's their job after all, and the stock will twitch on occasion but that is no different to today and has no bearing on anything.

    In a post iPhone Apple world, the focus will move to other areas, iPhone included of course, but with less weight. Just like the Mac today. Important but not the be all and end all.

    More bullshit from the Huawei troll/shill.

    Newsflash: There have been countless "iPhone killers" over the last 7-8 years that were supposed to knock the iPhone off its perch at the high end. To date, not one of them has succeeded. The CLOSEST anyone got was the Galaxy S4 back in 2014, which managed to sell 10 million units in its first month. Since then it's all been downhill and nobody has ever come close since. What makes you think (besides being delusional) that Huawei is going to steal sales from Apple where everyone else has failed? Nobody cross shops the superior iPhone to the inferior Huawei flagships.

    So you come up with ridiculous theories (poor Huawei isn't allowed to sell in the US) to imply that if they playing field were equal that Huawei would magically outsell the iPhone. The reason Huawei won't outsell the iPhone is because they are inferior devices. Plain and simple.

    No bleeding edge technology from Apple? Only to someone who doesn't understand technology. Your precious Kirin 980 didn't turn out to be nearly as good as you predicted, so you had to try and redefine what makes a processor advanced (like thinking including a cellular modem in the chip somehow makes it better).
    Indeed. For a hilarious look at his preferred knockoff brand’s “innovation”, check this out:


    ...they even stole the pairing screen! Copying Apple is all these chinese knockoffs know to do. That their ripoff is called “Honor” is a hoot. 
    Avon B7 is a funny guy. 

    Always talking about premium Chinese smartphones, especially Huawei's P20 products, which he will never purchase due to price. just like most of the Android OS buyers. It's a halo device, not destined for even moderate sales, but look at those specs!

    Funny thing.

    Avon B7 isn't even close to being correct about Apple services.

    https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/9/2/the-apple-services-myth

    Yeah, the author of that stated just a few days ago that he wouldn't change a thing in that article from two years ago

    From the link;

    "The Actual Story

    Apple's original services narrative has been taken completely out of context. Management's goal in pointing out service revenue was to emphasize the value found within the iOS ecosystem, not to explain an upcoming pivot away from hardware.

    Here's Tim Cook on Apple's 1Q16 earnings call explaining Apple's services business: 

    "[A] growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. Because our customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content, and other services. 

    They also are very likely to buy other Apple products or replace the one they own. And because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will also love and use it often. 

    So, as a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has recently reached a major milestone, crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. This is an unbelievable asset for us. Because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues."

    Cook is making the case that Apple's service business is seeing strong growth because of the growth in the install base driven by hardware sales. Nowhere did Cook discuss a new Apple directive aimed at increasing services revenue. Specifically, Cook is taking the information found in Exhibit 1 and flipping it on its head."

    Avon B7 has no concept of the value of an ecosystem and a growing installed base, hence why his argument of choice always comes down to device hardware spec comparisons and price.

    For the record, EMUI sucks sweaty balls, and I can't imagine any iPhone user putting up with it.
    You realise that when someone on the outside says 'I wouldn't change a word in what I wrote two years ago', it is synonymous of a simple opinion?

    I have my opinion too and it hasn't changed either. And?

    You need to understand what is happening. Apple smartphone unit sales have stalled. Flat for over three years. That is the Apple smartphone reality - sans distortion field.

    I definitely didn't even whisper the idea of a 'pivot away from hardware'. I don't know if anyone did.

    Tim Cook speaks of growing the installed base through hand me downs etc because there is simply not much to speak of in real unit terms. He would be overjoyed if there was real unit growth - but there isn't.

    And install base is only part of the story anyway. What is of far more importance is how many unique and active Apple IDs there are. Note how Tim Cook, in spite of having those numbers too, doesn't provide them!

    You are obsessed with ASP (which has no value whatsoever for consumers) and ecosystem.

    One of the things that you also need to understand is that ecosystems are not the holy grail for users. They are simply platforms.

    As for halo effects, you are wrong there too.

    Halo effects exist on many levels. One of them is brand recognition. Huawei announced today that pre orders for the Mate 20 Pro were are 40% higher than for the P20 Pro. That is the halo effect of the P20 Pro.

    Huawei has also held onto the number two spot in smartphone sales for Q3. Every single newspiece with that information also adds that Apple has dropped. That is also halo effect.

    All of this propagates down the range. I don't need a P20 Pro. My Honor 10 is amazing. When I bought it it had the latest HiSilicon SoC, excellent build quality and just months after the stunning night mode rolled out on the P20 Pro, it was pushed out to the Honor 10 too. More halo effect.

    Honor just launched the Magic 2 and it already has the Kirin 980!

    What don't you like about EMUI? It definitely doesn't suck sweaty balls. LOL.


  • Reply 104 of 117
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    We are basically 'post iPhone' now (in company-wide terms) and after three years of flat growth, unit numbers possibly don't look too good going forward (in growth terms). 

    Apple has never had the kind of high-end premiun competition (at least on the current scale) as it has now and is (and has been) trying to open new revenue streams.

    Services is growing, (TV) content creation will probably go live next year and the car project will follow. Plus all the other areas.

    However, flat unit sales are not nice and any dip in handset sales would just make things worse from a stock perspective because iPhone sales have been the most important indicator for years. Giving a running commentary on unit sales (each earnings  call) and reporting things staying the same - or possibly getting worse is something to be avoided. 

    While iPhone X may have been the 'most popular' model this year, and in spite of all the joy with Q1 numbers, the reality is that sales are still more or less flat, again. Little has changed.

    We know people are being asked to pay more for the newer phones and at some point they won't want to (or won't be able to) and that point might be close. This year's refresh was not really that spectacular. To the point that many considered the Apple Watch to be the real star of the 2018 refresh.

    In a 'post iPhone' Apple world, it shouldn't be surprising to see a decision like this. Just look at the guidance for the next quarter. There will be another Q1 blow out but the revenue mix will be far more spread out, and as the year passes, iPhone unit sales might show signs of fatigue.

    By not giving unit sales, Apple gets some breathing space until the next refresh, which will need to be stronger than this year, but won't carry same importance as in previous years because other areas will have been strengthened by then and the content library will probably be rolling out.

    iPhone sales could take off of course, but I think Apple really doesn't expect that to happen and they are prefering to err on the side of caution.

    Apple obviously (and understandably) wants to play the decision down and say unit sales are less relevant. In a post iPhone Apple world it is true, but those numbers are still very much relevant nonetheless.
    While some of what you say is certainly the case (yes, Apple is obviously diversifying revenue streams) your take on it seems to suggest you believe that iPhone sales are bound to flatten out and Apple is reacting to
    that by attempting to charge higher prices.  But Apple is a huge data mining operation.  The company certainly has all the sales and marketing data it needs to dial the iPhone unit sales number where they want it, growing unit sales 20% year over year if they so wish; it would simply be a matter of producing iPhone models targeting certain market demographics at appropriate prices.  Because there’s demand all up and down the market, even here in the Philippines where most can’t afford one but nevertheless aspire to get their hands on one.  If Apple truly wanted to play the unit sales game against all comers, do you really think they couldn’t succeed?  

    Apple is in a different game.  The company has looked at price elasticity and decided it can maintain current unit numbers, even modestly growing them, while netting significantly more in ASP, by continuing up market away from those who have been attempting to follow Apple into the premium space.  That’s why you’re seeing A-series performance numbers that are running away from the competition, Face ID coming to the iPad, and other unmatched technology advances.  Did you even read Above Avalon’s recent article (under his free Weekly Articles section) regarding the grey market for iPhones and what that means?  I guess not.  You spout a lot about Apple’s supposed competition, championing one vendor in particular, but you show a remarkable, perhaps deliberately obtuse, lack of insight into the smartphone business.  

    But hey, thanks for playing.  
    I think you are at odds with yourself.

    Apple has never seen competition on its high end turf like it has now. To the point that this year's innovation in the handset market didn't come from Apple. If you want bleeding edge technology (lots do) you wouldn't buy this year's iPhone. That has been the reality of 2018. And you know that Apple has been sheltered from a large chunk of that competition on its home turf, which just happens to be the world's second largest smartphone market.

    Oh. That 'one vendor'. People are asking why its latest phone hasn't appeared on the D0X Mark listing yet. Rumours claim the results would be too far ahead of the pack as to be detrimental to itself. As the iPhone X Max didn't top the current board leader - which is already six months old - and the current leader is made by that 'one vendor', it is rumoured that the Mate 20 Pro won't get a listing until something from the competition tops the P20 Pro. You will counter that the listing is worthless and mostly serves for marketing but marketing is one of the cogs that moves this industry.

    It's not that Apple can't play the 'unit sales game and succeed'. It can, but at what price (no pun intended)?

    It's been flat on unit sales for three years now - in spite of attempts to open up its spread (both on models and pricing). So that is flat sales in spite of those actions. Care to imagine how things would have looked if they hadn't taken that action?

    Given the situation, one of the possible options is to compete with itself and produce new phones (not old phones) for the mid tier and try to differentiate them enough to shore up premium sales. It hasn't chosen that option - yet.

    But 2019 is served and the iPhones - for all their marketing - haven't really turned heads and now won't do so until the end of 2019. That is a lot of quarters and Samsung  (S10) is going to hit hard as soon as the gates open on  the New Year. Huawei (P30 Pro) will follow soon after and right around Apple the time Apple has its 2019 refresh, both vendors will launch the latest Note and Mates. 

    So Apple has an expensive phone (made more expensive by sales tax and currency realities in certain regions) that doesn't really offer the bells and whistles that the price warrants.

    It looks like Apple doesn't plan for larger unit shipments and may in fact be preparing for some contraction.

    Apple has the ultimate card to know the state of its current market: Apple ID.

    It knows absolutely everything it needs to know about the state of play. Active accounts and if users are bringing in extra revenues, how many devices are linked to each account, which devices go off radar, the family sphere of users.

    I have speculated in the past that the so called 'super cycle' might have actually happened, but simply didn't register in terms of far higher unit sales. Apple always knew exactly what happened of course and will never make that data public.

    Given the possible state of play, this decision not to provide unit sales makes sense for the company. Analysts will continue to speculate, it's their job after all, and the stock will twitch on occasion but that is no different to today and has no bearing on anything.

    In a post iPhone Apple world, the focus will move to other areas, iPhone included of course, but with less weight. Just like the Mac today. Important but not the be all and end all.

    More bullshit from the Huawei troll/shill.

    Newsflash: There have been countless "iPhone killers" over the last 7-8 years that were supposed to knock the iPhone off its perch at the high end. To date, not one of them has succeeded. The CLOSEST anyone got was the Galaxy S4 back in 2014, which managed to sell 10 million units in its first month. Since then it's all been downhill and nobody has ever come close since. What makes you think (besides being delusional) that Huawei is going to steal sales from Apple where everyone else has failed? Nobody cross shops the superior iPhone to the inferior Huawei flagships.

    So you come up with ridiculous theories (poor Huawei isn't allowed to sell in the US) to imply that if they playing field were equal that Huawei would magically outsell the iPhone. The reason Huawei won't outsell the iPhone is because they are inferior devices. Plain and simple.

    No bleeding edge technology from Apple? Only to someone who doesn't understand technology. Your precious Kirin 980 didn't turn out to be nearly as good as you predicted, so you had to try and redefine what makes a processor advanced (like thinking including a cellular modem in the chip somehow makes it better).
    Indeed. For a hilarious look at his preferred knockoff brand’s “innovation”, check this out:


    ...they even stole the pairing screen! Copying Apple is all these chinese knockoffs know to do. That their ripoff is called “Honor” is a hoot. 
    Avon B7 is a funny guy. 

    Always talking about premium Chinese smartphones, especially Huawei's P20 products, which he will never purchase due to price. just like most of the Android OS buyers. It's a halo device, not destined for even moderate sales, but look at those specs!

    Funny thing.

    Avon B7 isn't even close to being correct about Apple services.

    https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/9/2/the-apple-services-myth

    Yeah, the author of that stated just a few days ago that he wouldn't change a thing in that article from two years ago

    From the link;

    "The Actual Story

    Apple's original services narrative has been taken completely out of context. Management's goal in pointing out service revenue was to emphasize the value found within the iOS ecosystem, not to explain an upcoming pivot away from hardware.

    Here's Tim Cook on Apple's 1Q16 earnings call explaining Apple's services business: 

    "[A] growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. Because our customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content, and other services. 

    They also are very likely to buy other Apple products or replace the one they own. And because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will also love and use it often. 

    So, as a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has recently reached a major milestone, crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. This is an unbelievable asset for us. Because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues."

    Cook is making the case that Apple's service business is seeing strong growth because of the growth in the install base driven by hardware sales. Nowhere did Cook discuss a new Apple directive aimed at increasing services revenue. Specifically, Cook is taking the information found in Exhibit 1 and flipping it on its head."

    Avon B7 has no concept of the value of an ecosystem and a growing installed base, hence why his argument of choice always comes down to device hardware spec comparisons and price.

    For the record, EMUI sucks sweaty balls, and I can't imagine any iPhone user putting up with it.
    You realise that when someone on the outside says 'I wouldn't change a word in what I wrote two years ago', it is synonymous of a simple opinion?

    I have my opinion too and it hasn't changed either. And?

    You need to understand what is happening. Apple smartphone unit sales have stalled. Flat for over three years. That is the Apple smartphone reality - sans distortion field.

    I definitely didn't even whisper the idea of a 'pivot away from hardware'. I don't know if anyone did.

    Tim Cook speaks of growing the installed base through hand me downs etc because there is simply not much to speak of in real unit terms. He would be overjoyed if there was real unit growth - but there isn't.

    And install base is only part of the story anyway. What is of far more importance is how many unique and active Apple IDs there are. Note how Tim Cook, in spite of having those numbers too, doesn't provide them!

    You are obsessed with ASP (which has no value whatsoever for consumers) and ecosystem.

    One of the things that you also need to understand is that ecosystems are not the holy grail for users. They are simply platforms.

    As for halo effects, you are wrong there too.

    Halo effects exist on many levels. One of them is brand recognition. Huawei announced today that pre orders for the Mate 20 Pro were are 40% higher than for the P20 Pro. That is the halo effect of the P20 Pro.

    Huawei has also held onto the number two spot in smartphone sales for Q3. Every single newspiece with that information also adds that Apple has dropped. That is also halo effect.

    All of this propagates down the range. I don't need a P20 Pro. My Honor 10 is amazing. When I bought it it had the latest HiSilicon SoC, excellent build quality and just months after the stunning night mode rolled out on the P20 Pro, it was pushed out to the Honor 10 too. More halo effect.

    Honor just launched the Magic 2 and it already has the Kirin 980!

    What don't you like about EMUI? It definitely doesn't suck sweaty balls. LOL.


    Lol... Android vendors biggest competition are other Android vendors. Huawei  is not gonna do anything to take on Apple. Huawei may eat into Samsung sales but will not impact Apple at all. The p20 and Mate are just another Android vessel. 

    Next year a new Android vendor will be the flavour of the week. Samsung, Xaomi and Hauwei offer nothing in terms of ecosystem and sticky-ness. They are reliant on unit sales to make money. Apple is not reliant on unit sales to the same degree. The iOS ecosystem is a money making machine. What is Huawei offering? A spec arms race? Apple copy cat hardware? LG, HTC and Motorola say hi. 
    edited November 2018 tmayStrangeDays
  • Reply 105 of 117
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 7,891member
    clarker99 said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    We are basically 'post iPhone' now (in company-wide terms) and after three years of flat growth, unit numbers possibly don't look too good going forward (in growth terms). 

    Apple has never had the kind of high-end premiun competition (at least on the current scale) as it has now and is (and has been) trying to open new revenue streams.

    Services is growing, (TV) content creation will probably go live next year and the car project will follow. Plus all the other areas.

    However, flat unit sales are not nice and any dip in handset sales would just make things worse from a stock perspective because iPhone sales have been the most important indicator for years. Giving a running commentary on unit sales (each earnings  call) and reporting things staying the same - or possibly getting worse is something to be avoided. 

    While iPhone X may have been the 'most popular' model this year, and in spite of all the joy with Q1 numbers, the reality is that sales are still more or less flat, again. Little has changed.

    We know people are being asked to pay more for the newer phones and at some point they won't want to (or won't be able to) and that point might be close. This year's refresh was not really that spectacular. To the point that many considered the Apple Watch to be the real star of the 2018 refresh.

    In a 'post iPhone' Apple world, it shouldn't be surprising to see a decision like this. Just look at the guidance for the next quarter. There will be another Q1 blow out but the revenue mix will be far more spread out, and as the year passes, iPhone unit sales might show signs of fatigue.

    By not giving unit sales, Apple gets some breathing space until the next refresh, which will need to be stronger than this year, but won't carry same importance as in previous years because other areas will have been strengthened by then and the content library will probably be rolling out.

    iPhone sales could take off of course, but I think Apple really doesn't expect that to happen and they are prefering to err on the side of caution.

    Apple obviously (and understandably) wants to play the decision down and say unit sales are less relevant. In a post iPhone Apple world it is true, but those numbers are still very much relevant nonetheless.
    While some of what you say is certainly the case (yes, Apple is obviously diversifying revenue streams) your take on it seems to suggest you believe that iPhone sales are bound to flatten out and Apple is reacting to
    that by attempting to charge higher prices.  But Apple is a huge data mining operation.  The company certainly has all the sales and marketing data it needs to dial the iPhone unit sales number where they want it, growing unit sales 20% year over year if they so wish; it would simply be a matter of producing iPhone models targeting certain market demographics at appropriate prices.  Because there’s demand all up and down the market, even here in the Philippines where most can’t afford one but nevertheless aspire to get their hands on one.  If Apple truly wanted to play the unit sales game against all comers, do you really think they couldn’t succeed?  

    Apple is in a different game.  The company has looked at price elasticity and decided it can maintain current unit numbers, even modestly growing them, while netting significantly more in ASP, by continuing up market away from those who have been attempting to follow Apple into the premium space.  That’s why you’re seeing A-series performance numbers that are running away from the competition, Face ID coming to the iPad, and other unmatched technology advances.  Did you even read Above Avalon’s recent article (under his free Weekly Articles section) regarding the grey market for iPhones and what that means?  I guess not.  You spout a lot about Apple’s supposed competition, championing one vendor in particular, but you show a remarkable, perhaps deliberately obtuse, lack of insight into the smartphone business.  

    But hey, thanks for playing.  
    I think you are at odds with yourself.

    Apple has never seen competition on its high end turf like it has now. To the point that this year's innovation in the handset market didn't come from Apple. If you want bleeding edge technology (lots do) you wouldn't buy this year's iPhone. That has been the reality of 2018. And you know that Apple has been sheltered from a large chunk of that competition on its home turf, which just happens to be the world's second largest smartphone market.

    Oh. That 'one vendor'. People are asking why its latest phone hasn't appeared on the D0X Mark listing yet. Rumours claim the results would be too far ahead of the pack as to be detrimental to itself. As the iPhone X Max didn't top the current board leader - which is already six months old - and the current leader is made by that 'one vendor', it is rumoured that the Mate 20 Pro won't get a listing until something from the competition tops the P20 Pro. You will counter that the listing is worthless and mostly serves for marketing but marketing is one of the cogs that moves this industry.

    It's not that Apple can't play the 'unit sales game and succeed'. It can, but at what price (no pun intended)?

    It's been flat on unit sales for three years now - in spite of attempts to open up its spread (both on models and pricing). So that is flat sales in spite of those actions. Care to imagine how things would have looked if they hadn't taken that action?

    Given the situation, one of the possible options is to compete with itself and produce new phones (not old phones) for the mid tier and try to differentiate them enough to shore up premium sales. It hasn't chosen that option - yet.

    But 2019 is served and the iPhones - for all their marketing - haven't really turned heads and now won't do so until the end of 2019. That is a lot of quarters and Samsung  (S10) is going to hit hard as soon as the gates open on  the New Year. Huawei (P30 Pro) will follow soon after and right around Apple the time Apple has its 2019 refresh, both vendors will launch the latest Note and Mates. 

    So Apple has an expensive phone (made more expensive by sales tax and currency realities in certain regions) that doesn't really offer the bells and whistles that the price warrants.

    It looks like Apple doesn't plan for larger unit shipments and may in fact be preparing for some contraction.

    Apple has the ultimate card to know the state of its current market: Apple ID.

    It knows absolutely everything it needs to know about the state of play. Active accounts and if users are bringing in extra revenues, how many devices are linked to each account, which devices go off radar, the family sphere of users.

    I have speculated in the past that the so called 'super cycle' might have actually happened, but simply didn't register in terms of far higher unit sales. Apple always knew exactly what happened of course and will never make that data public.

    Given the possible state of play, this decision not to provide unit sales makes sense for the company. Analysts will continue to speculate, it's their job after all, and the stock will twitch on occasion but that is no different to today and has no bearing on anything.

    In a post iPhone Apple world, the focus will move to other areas, iPhone included of course, but with less weight. Just like the Mac today. Important but not the be all and end all.

    More bullshit from the Huawei troll/shill.

    Newsflash: There have been countless "iPhone killers" over the last 7-8 years that were supposed to knock the iPhone off its perch at the high end. To date, not one of them has succeeded. The CLOSEST anyone got was the Galaxy S4 back in 2014, which managed to sell 10 million units in its first month. Since then it's all been downhill and nobody has ever come close since. What makes you think (besides being delusional) that Huawei is going to steal sales from Apple where everyone else has failed? Nobody cross shops the superior iPhone to the inferior Huawei flagships.

    So you come up with ridiculous theories (poor Huawei isn't allowed to sell in the US) to imply that if they playing field were equal that Huawei would magically outsell the iPhone. The reason Huawei won't outsell the iPhone is because they are inferior devices. Plain and simple.

    No bleeding edge technology from Apple? Only to someone who doesn't understand technology. Your precious Kirin 980 didn't turn out to be nearly as good as you predicted, so you had to try and redefine what makes a processor advanced (like thinking including a cellular modem in the chip somehow makes it better).
    Indeed. For a hilarious look at his preferred knockoff brand’s “innovation”, check this out:


    ...they even stole the pairing screen! Copying Apple is all these chinese knockoffs know to do. That their ripoff is called “Honor” is a hoot. 
    Avon B7 is a funny guy. 

    Always talking about premium Chinese smartphones, especially Huawei's P20 products, which he will never purchase due to price. just like most of the Android OS buyers. It's a halo device, not destined for even moderate sales, but look at those specs!

    Funny thing.

    Avon B7 isn't even close to being correct about Apple services.

    https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/9/2/the-apple-services-myth

    Yeah, the author of that stated just a few days ago that he wouldn't change a thing in that article from two years ago

    From the link;

    "The Actual Story

    Apple's original services narrative has been taken completely out of context. Management's goal in pointing out service revenue was to emphasize the value found within the iOS ecosystem, not to explain an upcoming pivot away from hardware.

    Here's Tim Cook on Apple's 1Q16 earnings call explaining Apple's services business: 

    "[A] growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. Because our customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content, and other services. 

    They also are very likely to buy other Apple products or replace the one they own. And because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will also love and use it often. 

    So, as a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has recently reached a major milestone, crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. This is an unbelievable asset for us. Because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues."

    Cook is making the case that Apple's service business is seeing strong growth because of the growth in the install base driven by hardware sales. Nowhere did Cook discuss a new Apple directive aimed at increasing services revenue. Specifically, Cook is taking the information found in Exhibit 1 and flipping it on its head."

    Avon B7 has no concept of the value of an ecosystem and a growing installed base, hence why his argument of choice always comes down to device hardware spec comparisons and price.

    For the record, EMUI sucks sweaty balls, and I can't imagine any iPhone user putting up with it.
    You realise that when someone on the outside says 'I wouldn't change a word in what I wrote two years ago', it is synonymous of a simple opinion?

    I have my opinion too and it hasn't changed either. And?

    You need to understand what is happening. Apple smartphone unit sales have stalled. Flat for over three years. That is the Apple smartphone reality - sans distortion field.

    I definitely didn't even whisper the idea of a 'pivot away from hardware'. I don't know if anyone did.

    Tim Cook speaks of growing the installed base through hand me downs etc because there is simply not much to speak of in real unit terms. He would be overjoyed if there was real unit growth - but there isn't.

    And install base is only part of the story anyway. What is of far more importance is how many unique and active Apple IDs there are. Note how Tim Cook, in spite of having those numbers too, doesn't provide them!

    You are obsessed with ASP (which has no value whatsoever for consumers) and ecosystem.

    One of the things that you also need to understand is that ecosystems are not the holy grail for users. They are simply platforms.

    As for halo effects, you are wrong there too.

    Halo effects exist on many levels. One of them is brand recognition. Huawei announced today that pre orders for the Mate 20 Pro were are 40% higher than for the P20 Pro. That is the halo effect of the P20 Pro.

    Huawei has also held onto the number two spot in smartphone sales for Q3. Every single newspiece with that information also adds that Apple has dropped. That is also halo effect.

    All of this propagates down the range. I don't need a P20 Pro. My Honor 10 is amazing. When I bought it it had the latest HiSilicon SoC, excellent build quality and just months after the stunning night mode rolled out on the P20 Pro, it was pushed out to the Honor 10 too. More halo effect.

    Honor just launched the Magic 2 and it already has the Kirin 980!

    What don't you like about EMUI? It definitely doesn't suck sweaty balls. LOL.


    Lol... Android vendors biggest competition are other Android vendors. Huawei  is not gonna do anything to take on Apple. Huawei may eat into Samsung sales but will not impact Apple at all. The p20 and Mate are just another Android vessel. 

    Next year a new Android vendor will be the flavour of the week. Samsung, Xaomi and Hauwei offer nothing in terms of ecosystem and sticky-ness. They are reliant on unit sales to make money. Apple is not reliant on unit sales to the same degree. The iOS ecosystem is a money making machine. What is Huawei offering? A spec arms race? Apple copy cat hardware? LG, HTC and Motorola say hi. 
    The flexibility of Android means that people can switch to other Android vendors relatively easily. That is an advantage for the consumer, not a disadvantage, though.

    Huawei's migration app includes iPhones. People switch from iOS to Android too. Some people want to have us believe that that never happens. It does.

    Stickiness is often cited but isn't nearly as sticky as you might think. If you want to switch, you do. The real question is if you want to switch. Clearly there hasn't been a massive switch to iOS so let's conclude that if stickiness is a factor, Android is just as sticky as iOS and within Android, stickiness must also exist as lots of users are upgrading to the same Android brand.

    At the low end where people upgrade more frequently, the loyalty factor goes down simply because a frequent upgrade philosophy encourages experimentation. Great for consumers again although with the big players people do often upgrade to another model within the same brand.

    Apple is a money making machine that's for sure but that grates on many users (myself included) as it means nothing to consumers and doesn't even get them more bang for buck. Paying more to make a company even richer and see most of the money sit offshore (tax free!) for literally YEARS and not improve hardware (take a long hard look at your 5W charger and refresh your memory on how much Apple has horded away) does nothing for the consumer.

    Huawei is not copy catting Apple hardware. Many designs are used by many manufacturers - Apple included.

    In fact Huawei has a lot of hardware that isn't even available on any iPhone!

    So while Huawei (lower ASP, less cash horded, more direct competition etc) was able to put out the P20 Pro and completely overshadow the iPhone X for less money and break sales records for the company, and then follow it up just six months later with the Mate 20 series with still more tech advances, Apple just took a couple of hours off from designing the Apple Park Christmas tree and pushed out an incremental upgrade (s cycle) for the 2018 refresh. 

    If you want to buy into that I have no issue. It's your call after all but from reading comments here I see a lot of long time Apple users speaking out against Apple's pricing upgrades. They are automatically labelled 'whiners' but only by the people who seem to think that ASP, earning the most profit etc is actually good for consumers. That is weird in itself.

    The next time you struggle to get a decent hand held night shot, can't go to 3x (or 5x hybrid) zoom when you really need it, run out of juice and end up waste time charging on your 5W charger, want a macro shot but can't focus, want to take a portrait shot but the camera app won't even let you press the shutter button due to low light, need an ultra wide angle to get everything in frame, bemoan the strength of your cellular or wifi reception etc, remember Apple's ASP and smile!
    edited November 2018
  • Reply 106 of 117
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,439member
    avon b7 said:
    clarker99 said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    We are basically 'post iPhone' now (in company-wide terms) and after three years of flat growth, unit numbers possibly don't look too good going forward (in growth terms). 

    Apple has never had the kind of high-end premiun competition (at least on the current scale) as it has now and is (and has been) trying to open new revenue streams.

    Services is growing, (TV) content creation will probably go live next year and the car project will follow. Plus all the other areas.

    However, flat unit sales are not nice and any dip in handset sales would just make things worse from a stock perspective because iPhone sales have been the most important indicator for years. Giving a running commentary on unit sales (each earnings  call) and reporting things staying the same - or possibly getting worse is something to be avoided. 

    While iPhone X may have been the 'most popular' model this year, and in spite of all the joy with Q1 numbers, the reality is that sales are still more or less flat, again. Little has changed.

    We know people are being asked to pay more for the newer phones and at some point they won't want to (or won't be able to) and that point might be close. This year's refresh was not really that spectacular. To the point that many considered the Apple Watch to be the real star of the 2018 refresh.

    In a 'post iPhone' Apple world, it shouldn't be surprising to see a decision like this. Just look at the guidance for the next quarter. There will be another Q1 blow out but the revenue mix will be far more spread out, and as the year passes, iPhone unit sales might show signs of fatigue.

    By not giving unit sales, Apple gets some breathing space until the next refresh, which will need to be stronger than this year, but won't carry same importance as in previous years because other areas will have been strengthened by then and the content library will probably be rolling out.

    iPhone sales could take off of course, but I think Apple really doesn't expect that to happen and they are prefering to err on the side of caution.

    Apple obviously (and understandably) wants to play the decision down and say unit sales are less relevant. In a post iPhone Apple world it is true, but those numbers are still very much relevant nonetheless.
    While some of what you say is certainly the case (yes, Apple is obviously diversifying revenue streams) your take on it seems to suggest you believe that iPhone sales are bound to flatten out and Apple is reacting to
    that by attempting to charge higher prices.  But Apple is a huge data mining operation.  The company certainly has all the sales and marketing data it needs to dial the iPhone unit sales number where they want it, growing unit sales 20% year over year if they so wish; it would simply be a matter of producing iPhone models targeting certain market demographics at appropriate prices.  Because there’s demand all up and down the market, even here in the Philippines where most can’t afford one but nevertheless aspire to get their hands on one.  If Apple truly wanted to play the unit sales game against all comers, do you really think they couldn’t succeed?  

    Apple is in a different game.  The company has looked at price elasticity and decided it can maintain current unit numbers, even modestly growing them, while netting significantly more in ASP, by continuing up market away from those who have been attempting to follow Apple into the premium space.  That’s why you’re seeing A-series performance numbers that are running away from the competition, Face ID coming to the iPad, and other unmatched technology advances.  Did you even read Above Avalon’s recent article (under his free Weekly Articles section) regarding the grey market for iPhones and what that means?  I guess not.  You spout a lot about Apple’s supposed competition, championing one vendor in particular, but you show a remarkable, perhaps deliberately obtuse, lack of insight into the smartphone business.  

    But hey, thanks for playing.  
    I think you are at odds with yourself.

    Apple has never seen competition on its high end turf like it has now. To the point that this year's innovation in the handset market didn't come from Apple. If you want bleeding edge technology (lots do) you wouldn't buy this year's iPhone. That has been the reality of 2018. And you know that Apple has been sheltered from a large chunk of that competition on its home turf, which just happens to be the world's second largest smartphone market.

    Oh. That 'one vendor'. People are asking why its latest phone hasn't appeared on the D0X Mark listing yet. Rumours claim the results would be too far ahead of the pack as to be detrimental to itself. As the iPhone X Max didn't top the current board leader - which is already six months old - and the current leader is made by that 'one vendor', it is rumoured that the Mate 20 Pro won't get a listing until something from the competition tops the P20 Pro. You will counter that the listing is worthless and mostly serves for marketing but marketing is one of the cogs that moves this industry.

    It's not that Apple can't play the 'unit sales game and succeed'. It can, but at what price (no pun intended)?

    It's been flat on unit sales for three years now - in spite of attempts to open up its spread (both on models and pricing). So that is flat sales in spite of those actions. Care to imagine how things would have looked if they hadn't taken that action?

    Given the situation, one of the possible options is to compete with itself and produce new phones (not old phones) for the mid tier and try to differentiate them enough to shore up premium sales. It hasn't chosen that option - yet.

    But 2019 is served and the iPhones - for all their marketing - haven't really turned heads and now won't do so until the end of 2019. That is a lot of quarters and Samsung  (S10) is going to hit hard as soon as the gates open on  the New Year. Huawei (P30 Pro) will follow soon after and right around Apple the time Apple has its 2019 refresh, both vendors will launch the latest Note and Mates. 

    So Apple has an expensive phone (made more expensive by sales tax and currency realities in certain regions) that doesn't really offer the bells and whistles that the price warrants.

    It looks like Apple doesn't plan for larger unit shipments and may in fact be preparing for some contraction.

    Apple has the ultimate card to know the state of its current market: Apple ID.

    It knows absolutely everything it needs to know about the state of play. Active accounts and if users are bringing in extra revenues, how many devices are linked to each account, which devices go off radar, the family sphere of users.

    I have speculated in the past that the so called 'super cycle' might have actually happened, but simply didn't register in terms of far higher unit sales. Apple always knew exactly what happened of course and will never make that data public.

    Given the possible state of play, this decision not to provide unit sales makes sense for the company. Analysts will continue to speculate, it's their job after all, and the stock will twitch on occasion but that is no different to today and has no bearing on anything.

    In a post iPhone Apple world, the focus will move to other areas, iPhone included of course, but with less weight. Just like the Mac today. Important but not the be all and end all.

    More bullshit from the Huawei troll/shill.

    Newsflash: There have been countless "iPhone killers" over the last 7-8 years that were supposed to knock the iPhone off its perch at the high end. To date, not one of them has succeeded. The CLOSEST anyone got was the Galaxy S4 back in 2014, which managed to sell 10 million units in its first month. Since then it's all been downhill and nobody has ever come close since. What makes you think (besides being delusional) that Huawei is going to steal sales from Apple where everyone else has failed? Nobody cross shops the superior iPhone to the inferior Huawei flagships.

    So you come up with ridiculous theories (poor Huawei isn't allowed to sell in the US) to imply that if they playing field were equal that Huawei would magically outsell the iPhone. The reason Huawei won't outsell the iPhone is because they are inferior devices. Plain and simple.

    No bleeding edge technology from Apple? Only to someone who doesn't understand technology. Your precious Kirin 980 didn't turn out to be nearly as good as you predicted, so you had to try and redefine what makes a processor advanced (like thinking including a cellular modem in the chip somehow makes it better).
    Indeed. For a hilarious look at his preferred knockoff brand’s “innovation”, check this out:


    ...they even stole the pairing screen! Copying Apple is all these chinese knockoffs know to do. That their ripoff is called “Honor” is a hoot. 
    Avon B7 is a funny guy. 

    Always talking about premium Chinese smartphones, especially Huawei's P20 products, which he will never purchase due to price. just like most of the Android OS buyers. It's a halo device, not destined for even moderate sales, but look at those specs!

    Funny thing.

    Avon B7 isn't even close to being correct about Apple services.

    https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/9/2/the-apple-services-myth

    Yeah, the author of that stated just a few days ago that he wouldn't change a thing in that article from two years ago

    From the link;

    "The Actual Story

    Apple's original services narrative has been taken completely out of context. Management's goal in pointing out service revenue was to emphasize the value found within the iOS ecosystem, not to explain an upcoming pivot away from hardware.

    Here's Tim Cook on Apple's 1Q16 earnings call explaining Apple's services business: 

    "[A] growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. Because our customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content, and other services. 

    They also are very likely to buy other Apple products or replace the one they own. And because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will also love and use it often. 

    So, as a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has recently reached a major milestone, crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. This is an unbelievable asset for us. Because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues."

    Cook is making the case that Apple's service business is seeing strong growth because of the growth in the install base driven by hardware sales. Nowhere did Cook discuss a new Apple directive aimed at increasing services revenue. Specifically, Cook is taking the information found in Exhibit 1 and flipping it on its head."

    Avon B7 has no concept of the value of an ecosystem and a growing installed base, hence why his argument of choice always comes down to device hardware spec comparisons and price.

    For the record, EMUI sucks sweaty balls, and I can't imagine any iPhone user putting up with it.
    You realise that when someone on the outside says 'I wouldn't change a word in what I wrote two years ago', it is synonymous of a simple opinion?

    I have my opinion too and it hasn't changed either. And?

    You need to understand what is happening. Apple smartphone unit sales have stalled. Flat for over three years. That is the Apple smartphone reality - sans distortion field.

    I definitely didn't even whisper the idea of a 'pivot away from hardware'. I don't know if anyone did.

    Tim Cook speaks of growing the installed base through hand me downs etc because there is simply not much to speak of in real unit terms. He would be overjoyed if there was real unit growth - but there isn't.

    And install base is only part of the story anyway. What is of far more importance is how many unique and active Apple IDs there are. Note how Tim Cook, in spite of having those numbers too, doesn't provide them!

    You are obsessed with ASP (which has no value whatsoever for consumers) and ecosystem.

    One of the things that you also need to understand is that ecosystems are not the holy grail for users. They are simply platforms.

    As for halo effects, you are wrong there too.

    Halo effects exist on many levels. One of them is brand recognition. Huawei announced today that pre orders for the Mate 20 Pro were are 40% higher than for the P20 Pro. That is the halo effect of the P20 Pro.

    Huawei has also held onto the number two spot in smartphone sales for Q3. Every single newspiece with that information also adds that Apple has dropped. That is also halo effect.

    All of this propagates down the range. I don't need a P20 Pro. My Honor 10 is amazing. When I bought it it had the latest HiSilicon SoC, excellent build quality and just months after the stunning night mode rolled out on the P20 Pro, it was pushed out to the Honor 10 too. More halo effect.

    Honor just launched the Magic 2 and it already has the Kirin 980!

    What don't you like about EMUI? It definitely doesn't suck sweaty balls. LOL.


    Lol... Android vendors biggest competition are other Android vendors. Huawei  is not gonna do anything to take on Apple. Huawei may eat into Samsung sales but will not impact Apple at all. The p20 and Mate are just another Android vessel. 

    Next year a new Android vendor will be the flavour of the week. Samsung, Xaomi and Hauwei offer nothing in terms of ecosystem and sticky-ness. They are reliant on unit sales to make money. Apple is not reliant on unit sales to the same degree. The iOS ecosystem is a money making machine. What is Huawei offering? A spec arms race? Apple copy cat hardware? LG, HTC and Motorola say hi. 
    The flexibility of Android means that people can switch to other Android vendors relatively easily. That is an advantage for the consumer, not a disadvantage, though.

    Huawei's migration app includes iPhones. People switch from iOS to Android too. Some people want to have us believe that that never happens. It does.

    Stickiness is often cited but isn't nearly as sticky as you might think. If you want to switch, you do. The real question is if you want to switch. Clearly there hasn't been a massive switch to iOS so let's conclude that if stickiness is a factor, Android is just as sticky as iOS and within Android, stickiness must also exist as lots of users are upgrading to the same Android brand.

    At the low end where people upgrade more frequently, the loyalty factor goes down simply because a frequent upgrade philosophy encourages experimentation. Great for consumers again although with the big players people do often upgrade to another model within the same brand.

    Apple is a money making machine that's for sure but that grates on many users (myself included) as it means nothing to consumers and doesn't even get them more bang for buck. Paying more to make a company even richer and see most of the money sit offshore (tax free!) for literally YEARS and not improve hardware (take a long hard look at your 5W charger and refresh your memory on how much Apple has horded away) does nothing for the consumer.

    Huawei is not copy catting Apple hardware. Many designs are used by many manufacturers - Apple included.

    In fact Huawei has a lot of hardware that isn't even available on any iPhone!

    So while Huawei (lower ASP, less cash horded, more direct competition etc) was able to put out the P20 Pro and completely overshadow the iPhone X for less money and break sales records for the company, and then follow it up just six months later with the Mate 20 series with still more tech advances, Apple just took a couple of hours off from designing the Apple Park Christmas tree and pushed out an incremental upgrade (s cycle) for the 2018 refresh. 

    If you want to buy into that I have no issue. It's your call after all but from reading comments here I see a lot of long time Apple users speaking out against Apple's pricing upgrades. They are automatically labelled 'whiners' but only by the people who seem to think that ASP, earning the most profit etc is actually good for consumers. That is weird in itself.

    The next time you struggle to get a decent hand held night shot, can't go to 3x (or 5x hybrid) zoom when you really need it, run out of juice and end up waste time charging on your 5W charger, want a macro shot but can't focus, want to take a portrait shot but the camera app won't even let you press the shutter button due to low light, need an ultra wide angle to get everything in frame, bemoan the strength of your cellular or wifi reception etc, remember Apple's ASP and smile!
    I find it funny that you are advocating for Huawei to go all out to win the unit war, in a mature market. It doesn't make sense to me, given that Huawei is just rushing into its own stagnated market sooner than later.

    What exactly will Huawei win, and at what cost?

    Huawei isn't going to displace Apple, who will still sell far more, by units, premium iPhones than Huawei will ever sell of its own premium phones. Samsung is certainly not laying down, and will return with even more feature rich S10 models, and will expand new models into the midrange. Sure looks like Huawei will find itself in an arms race. Xiaomi certainly wants to be the low cost fast follower of Huawei, and will be happy to pick up the scraps.

    While all of that is happening, Apple continues to develop both its broad hardware and software offerings, and reap the service benefits of its increasing user base, now at 1.3B.

    So you really think that Huawei will make inroads on Apple with FlyPods, an absolute carbon copy of AirPod's industrial design?

    Apple is basically alerting the world that there is a rough ride ahead for the world's economies. You might want to note that, because whatever happens to Apple, they still sit on a pile of cash that they will use to pick up even more of those small innovators, but at firesale prices. Given that Apple could, at any time, market lower price models, should it need to increase units sales, I'm seeing a whole lot more risk to Chinese OEM's than I am to Apple.
  • Reply 107 of 117
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 7,891member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    clarker99 said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    We are basically 'post iPhone' now (in company-wide terms) and after three years of flat growth, unit numbers possibly don't look too good going forward (in growth terms). 

    Apple has never had the kind of high-end premiun competition (at least on the current scale) as it has now and is (and has been) trying to open new revenue streams.

    Services is growing, (TV) content creation will probably go live next year and the car project will follow. Plus all the other areas.

    However, flat unit sales are not nice and any dip in handset sales would just make things worse from a stock perspective because iPhone sales have been the most important indicator for years. Giving a running commentary on unit sales (each earnings  call) and reporting things staying the same - or possibly getting worse is something to be avoided. 

    While iPhone X may have been the 'most popular' model this year, and in spite of all the joy with Q1 numbers, the reality is that sales are still more or less flat, again. Little has changed.

    We know people are being asked to pay more for the newer phones and at some point they won't want to (or won't be able to) and that point might be close. This year's refresh was not really that spectacular. To the point that many considered the Apple Watch to be the real star of the 2018 refresh.

    In a 'post iPhone' Apple world, it shouldn't be surprising to see a decision like this. Just look at the guidance for the next quarter. There will be another Q1 blow out but the revenue mix will be far more spread out, and as the year passes, iPhone unit sales might show signs of fatigue.

    By not giving unit sales, Apple gets some breathing space until the next refresh, which will need to be stronger than this year, but won't carry same importance as in previous years because other areas will have been strengthened by then and the content library will probably be rolling out.

    iPhone sales could take off of course, but I think Apple really doesn't expect that to happen and they are prefering to err on the side of caution.

    Apple obviously (and understandably) wants to play the decision down and say unit sales are less relevant. In a post iPhone Apple world it is true, but those numbers are still very much relevant nonetheless.
    While some of what you say is certainly the case (yes, Apple is obviously diversifying revenue streams) your take on it seems to suggest you believe that iPhone sales are bound to flatten out and Apple is reacting to
    that by attempting to charge higher prices.  But Apple is a huge data mining operation.  The company certainly has all the sales and marketing data it needs to dial the iPhone unit sales number where they want it, growing unit sales 20% year over year if they so wish; it would simply be a matter of producing iPhone models targeting certain market demographics at appropriate prices.  Because there’s demand all up and down the market, even here in the Philippines where most can’t afford one but nevertheless aspire to get their hands on one.  If Apple truly wanted to play the unit sales game against all comers, do you really think they couldn’t succeed?  

    Apple is in a different game.  The company has looked at price elasticity and decided it can maintain current unit numbers, even modestly growing them, while netting significantly more in ASP, by continuing up market away from those who have been attempting to follow Apple into the premium space.  That’s why you’re seeing A-series performance numbers that are running away from the competition, Face ID coming to the iPad, and other unmatched technology advances.  Did you even read Above Avalon’s recent article (under his free Weekly Articles section) regarding the grey market for iPhones and what that means?  I guess not.  You spout a lot about Apple’s supposed competition, championing one vendor in particular, but you show a remarkable, perhaps deliberately obtuse, lack of insight into the smartphone business.  

    But hey, thanks for playing.  
    I think you are at odds with yourself.

    Apple has never seen competition on its high end turf like it has now. To the point that this year's innovation in the handset market didn't come from Apple. If you want bleeding edge technology (lots do) you wouldn't buy this year's iPhone. That has been the reality of 2018. And you know that Apple has been sheltered from a large chunk of that competition on its home turf, which just happens to be the world's second largest smartphone market.

    Oh. That 'one vendor'. People are asking why its latest phone hasn't appeared on the D0X Mark listing yet. Rumours claim the results would be too far ahead of the pack as to be detrimental to itself. As the iPhone X Max didn't top the current board leader - which is already six months old - and the current leader is made by that 'one vendor', it is rumoured that the Mate 20 Pro won't get a listing until something from the competition tops the P20 Pro. You will counter that the listing is worthless and mostly serves for marketing but marketing is one of the cogs that moves this industry.

    It's not that Apple can't play the 'unit sales game and succeed'. It can, but at what price (no pun intended)?

    It's been flat on unit sales for three years now - in spite of attempts to open up its spread (both on models and pricing). So that is flat sales in spite of those actions. Care to imagine how things would have looked if they hadn't taken that action?

    Given the situation, one of the possible options is to compete with itself and produce new phones (not old phones) for the mid tier and try to differentiate them enough to shore up premium sales. It hasn't chosen that option - yet.

    But 2019 is served and the iPhones - for all their marketing - haven't really turned heads and now won't do so until the end of 2019. That is a lot of quarters and Samsung  (S10) is going to hit hard as soon as the gates open on  the New Year. Huawei (P30 Pro) will follow soon after and right around Apple the time Apple has its 2019 refresh, both vendors will launch the latest Note and Mates. 

    So Apple has an expensive phone (made more expensive by sales tax and currency realities in certain regions) that doesn't really offer the bells and whistles that the price warrants.

    It looks like Apple doesn't plan for larger unit shipments and may in fact be preparing for some contraction.

    Apple has the ultimate card to know the state of its current market: Apple ID.

    It knows absolutely everything it needs to know about the state of play. Active accounts and if users are bringing in extra revenues, how many devices are linked to each account, which devices go off radar, the family sphere of users.

    I have speculated in the past that the so called 'super cycle' might have actually happened, but simply didn't register in terms of far higher unit sales. Apple always knew exactly what happened of course and will never make that data public.

    Given the possible state of play, this decision not to provide unit sales makes sense for the company. Analysts will continue to speculate, it's their job after all, and the stock will twitch on occasion but that is no different to today and has no bearing on anything.

    In a post iPhone Apple world, the focus will move to other areas, iPhone included of course, but with less weight. Just like the Mac today. Important but not the be all and end all.

    More bullshit from the Huawei troll/shill.

    Newsflash: There have been countless "iPhone killers" over the last 7-8 years that were supposed to knock the iPhone off its perch at the high end. To date, not one of them has succeeded. The CLOSEST anyone got was the Galaxy S4 back in 2014, which managed to sell 10 million units in its first month. Since then it's all been downhill and nobody has ever come close since. What makes you think (besides being delusional) that Huawei is going to steal sales from Apple where everyone else has failed? Nobody cross shops the superior iPhone to the inferior Huawei flagships.

    So you come up with ridiculous theories (poor Huawei isn't allowed to sell in the US) to imply that if they playing field were equal that Huawei would magically outsell the iPhone. The reason Huawei won't outsell the iPhone is because they are inferior devices. Plain and simple.

    No bleeding edge technology from Apple? Only to someone who doesn't understand technology. Your precious Kirin 980 didn't turn out to be nearly as good as you predicted, so you had to try and redefine what makes a processor advanced (like thinking including a cellular modem in the chip somehow makes it better).
    Indeed. For a hilarious look at his preferred knockoff brand’s “innovation”, check this out:


    ...they even stole the pairing screen! Copying Apple is all these chinese knockoffs know to do. That their ripoff is called “Honor” is a hoot. 
    Avon B7 is a funny guy. 

    Always talking about premium Chinese smartphones, especially Huawei's P20 products, which he will never purchase due to price. just like most of the Android OS buyers. It's a halo device, not destined for even moderate sales, but look at those specs!

    Funny thing.

    Avon B7 isn't even close to being correct about Apple services.

    https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/9/2/the-apple-services-myth

    Yeah, the author of that stated just a few days ago that he wouldn't change a thing in that article from two years ago

    From the link;

    "The Actual Story

    Apple's original services narrative has been taken completely out of context. Management's goal in pointing out service revenue was to emphasize the value found within the iOS ecosystem, not to explain an upcoming pivot away from hardware.

    Here's Tim Cook on Apple's 1Q16 earnings call explaining Apple's services business: 

    "[A] growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. Because our customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content, and other services. 

    They also are very likely to buy other Apple products or replace the one they own. And because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will also love and use it often. 

    So, as a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has recently reached a major milestone, crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. This is an unbelievable asset for us. Because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues."

    Cook is making the case that Apple's service business is seeing strong growth because of the growth in the install base driven by hardware sales. Nowhere did Cook discuss a new Apple directive aimed at increasing services revenue. Specifically, Cook is taking the information found in Exhibit 1 and flipping it on its head."

    Avon B7 has no concept of the value of an ecosystem and a growing installed base, hence why his argument of choice always comes down to device hardware spec comparisons and price.

    For the record, EMUI sucks sweaty balls, and I can't imagine any iPhone user putting up with it.
    You realise that when someone on the outside says 'I wouldn't change a word in what I wrote two years ago', it is synonymous of a simple opinion?

    I have my opinion too and it hasn't changed either. And?

    You need to understand what is happening. Apple smartphone unit sales have stalled. Flat for over three years. That is the Apple smartphone reality - sans distortion field.

    I definitely didn't even whisper the idea of a 'pivot away from hardware'. I don't know if anyone did.

    Tim Cook speaks of growing the installed base through hand me downs etc because there is simply not much to speak of in real unit terms. He would be overjoyed if there was real unit growth - but there isn't.

    And install base is only part of the story anyway. What is of far more importance is how many unique and active Apple IDs there are. Note how Tim Cook, in spite of having those numbers too, doesn't provide them!

    You are obsessed with ASP (which has no value whatsoever for consumers) and ecosystem.

    One of the things that you also need to understand is that ecosystems are not the holy grail for users. They are simply platforms.

    As for halo effects, you are wrong there too.

    Halo effects exist on many levels. One of them is brand recognition. Huawei announced today that pre orders for the Mate 20 Pro were are 40% higher than for the P20 Pro. That is the halo effect of the P20 Pro.

    Huawei has also held onto the number two spot in smartphone sales for Q3. Every single newspiece with that information also adds that Apple has dropped. That is also halo effect.

    All of this propagates down the range. I don't need a P20 Pro. My Honor 10 is amazing. When I bought it it had the latest HiSilicon SoC, excellent build quality and just months after the stunning night mode rolled out on the P20 Pro, it was pushed out to the Honor 10 too. More halo effect.

    Honor just launched the Magic 2 and it already has the Kirin 980!

    What don't you like about EMUI? It definitely doesn't suck sweaty balls. LOL.


    Lol... Android vendors biggest competition are other Android vendors. Huawei  is not gonna do anything to take on Apple. Huawei may eat into Samsung sales but will not impact Apple at all. The p20 and Mate are just another Android vessel. 

    Next year a new Android vendor will be the flavour of the week. Samsung, Xaomi and Hauwei offer nothing in terms of ecosystem and sticky-ness. They are reliant on unit sales to make money. Apple is not reliant on unit sales to the same degree. The iOS ecosystem is a money making machine. What is Huawei offering? A spec arms race? Apple copy cat hardware? LG, HTC and Motorola say hi. 
    The flexibility of Android means that people can switch to other Android vendors relatively easily. That is an advantage for the consumer, not a disadvantage, though.

    Huawei's migration app includes iPhones. People switch from iOS to Android too. Some people want to have us believe that that never happens. It does.

    Stickiness is often cited but isn't nearly as sticky as you might think. If you want to switch, you do. The real question is if you want to switch. Clearly there hasn't been a massive switch to iOS so let's conclude that if stickiness is a factor, Android is just as sticky as iOS and within Android, stickiness must also exist as lots of users are upgrading to the same Android brand.

    At the low end where people upgrade more frequently, the loyalty factor goes down simply because a frequent upgrade philosophy encourages experimentation. Great for consumers again although with the big players people do often upgrade to another model within the same brand.

    Apple is a money making machine that's for sure but that grates on many users (myself included) as it means nothing to consumers and doesn't even get them more bang for buck. Paying more to make a company even richer and see most of the money sit offshore (tax free!) for literally YEARS and not improve hardware (take a long hard look at your 5W charger and refresh your memory on how much Apple has horded away) does nothing for the consumer.

    Huawei is not copy catting Apple hardware. Many designs are used by many manufacturers - Apple included.

    In fact Huawei has a lot of hardware that isn't even available on any iPhone!

    So while Huawei (lower ASP, less cash horded, more direct competition etc) was able to put out the P20 Pro and completely overshadow the iPhone X for less money and break sales records for the company, and then follow it up just six months later with the Mate 20 series with still more tech advances, Apple just took a couple of hours off from designing the Apple Park Christmas tree and pushed out an incremental upgrade (s cycle) for the 2018 refresh. 

    If you want to buy into that I have no issue. It's your call after all but from reading comments here I see a lot of long time Apple users speaking out against Apple's pricing upgrades. They are automatically labelled 'whiners' but only by the people who seem to think that ASP, earning the most profit etc is actually good for consumers. That is weird in itself.

    The next time you struggle to get a decent hand held night shot, can't go to 3x (or 5x hybrid) zoom when you really need it, run out of juice and end up waste time charging on your 5W charger, want a macro shot but can't focus, want to take a portrait shot but the camera app won't even let you press the shutter button due to low light, need an ultra wide angle to get everything in frame, bemoan the strength of your cellular or wifi reception etc, remember Apple's ASP and smile!
    I find it funny that you are advocating for Huawei to go all out to win the unit war, in a mature market. It doesn't make sense to me, given that Huawei is just rushing into its own stagnated market sooner than later.

    What exactly will Huawei win, and at what cost?

    Huawei isn't going to displace Apple, who will still sell far more, by units, premium iPhones than Huawei will ever sell of its own premium phones. Samsung is certainly not laying down, and will return with even more feature rich S10 models, and will expand new models into the midrange. Sure looks like Huawei will find itself in an arms race. Xiaomi certainly wants to be the low cost fast follower of Huawei, and will be happy to pick up the scraps.

    While all of that is happening, Apple continues to develop both its broad hardware and software offerings, and reap the service benefits of its increasing user base, now at 1.3B.

    So you really think that Huawei will make inroads on Apple with FlyPods, an absolute carbon copy of AirPod's industrial design?

    Apple is basically alerting the world that there is a rough ride ahead for the world's economies. You might want to note that, because whatever happens to Apple, they still sit on a pile of cash that they will use to pick up even more of those small innovators, but at firesale prices. Given that Apple could, at any time, market lower price models, should it need to increase units sales, I'm seeing a whole lot more risk to Chinese OEM's than I am to Apple.
    And you say I'm a funny guy! LOL

    Yes Apple could buy up more innovators but they already have quite a few bought up and on board and not much has shown for it this year! 

    There is very little in the industrial design of the Air Pods.  There are hundreds of ear buds on the market - but with wires attached. In fact you could simply cut the wires off many of those and you would be hard pressed to distinguish between them and Air Pods! The design isn't original at all but that's forgivable for the same reasons phones are rectangular.

    At least Honor is offering them in different colours and trying a new secure biometric option with BoneID. Not to mention being able to reverse charge them wirelessly on the Mate Pro. Did you mention Innovation?

    That's not to take anything away from Air Pods though, it's just adding some balance to your claim.

    And if Apple is alerting the world to a rough ride ahead, raising prices doesn't really paint that picture. It more like saying, 'as we might sell less, you have to pay more to keep our ASP afloat'!

    No, you are correct in saying Samsung won't lay down. Finally, they are reacting but Huawei will react too! Competition! Hooray!

    Of course, the result could lead to Apple eating the dust in the tech trail those two will leave behind so Apple better have something compelling lined up for 2019.

    As for Xiaomi, the more competition the better!
    edited November 2018
  • Reply 108 of 117
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    clarker99 said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    We are basically 'post iPhone' now (in company-wide terms) and after three years of flat growth, unit numbers possibly don't look too good going forward (in growth terms). 

    Apple has never had the kind of high-end premiun competition (at least on the current scale) as it has now and is (and has been) trying to open new revenue streams.

    Services is growing, (TV) content creation will probably go live next year and the car project will follow. Plus all the other areas.

    However, flat unit sales are not nice and any dip in handset sales would just make things worse from a stock perspective because iPhone sales have been the most important indicator for years. Giving a running commentary on unit sales (each earnings  call) and reporting things staying the same - or possibly getting worse is something to be avoided. 

    While iPhone X may have been the 'most popular' model this year, and in spite of all the joy with Q1 numbers, the reality is that sales are still more or less flat, again. Little has changed.

    We know people are being asked to pay more for the newer phones and at some point they won't want to (or won't be able to) and that point might be close. This year's refresh was not really that spectacular. To the point that many considered the Apple Watch to be the real star of the 2018 refresh.

    In a 'post iPhone' Apple world, it shouldn't be surprising to see a decision like this. Just look at the guidance for the next quarter. There will be another Q1 blow out but the revenue mix will be far more spread out, and as the year passes, iPhone unit sales might show signs of fatigue.

    By not giving unit sales, Apple gets some breathing space until the next refresh, which will need to be stronger than this year, but won't carry same importance as in previous years because other areas will have been strengthened by then and the content library will probably be rolling out.

    iPhone sales could take off of course, but I think Apple really doesn't expect that to happen and they are prefering to err on the side of caution.

    Apple obviously (and understandably) wants to play the decision down and say unit sales are less relevant. In a post iPhone Apple world it is true, but those numbers are still very much relevant nonetheless.
    While some of what you say is certainly the case (yes, Apple is obviously diversifying revenue streams) your take on it seems to suggest you believe that iPhone sales are bound to flatten out and Apple is reacting to
    that by attempting to charge higher prices.  But Apple is a huge data mining operation.  The company certainly has all the sales and marketing data it needs to dial the iPhone unit sales number where they want it, growing unit sales 20% year over year if they so wish; it would simply be a matter of producing iPhone models targeting certain market demographics at appropriate prices.  Because there’s demand all up and down the market, even here in the Philippines where most can’t afford one but nevertheless aspire to get their hands on one.  If Apple truly wanted to play the unit sales game against all comers, do you really think they couldn’t succeed?  

    Apple is in a different game.  The company has looked at price elasticity and decided it can maintain current unit numbers, even modestly growing them, while netting significantly more in ASP, by continuing up market away from those who have been attempting to follow Apple into the premium space.  That’s why you’re seeing A-series performance numbers that are running away from the competition, Face ID coming to the iPad, and other unmatched technology advances.  Did you even read Above Avalon’s recent article (under his free Weekly Articles section) regarding the grey market for iPhones and what that means?  I guess not.  You spout a lot about Apple’s supposed competition, championing one vendor in particular, but you show a remarkable, perhaps deliberately obtuse, lack of insight into the smartphone business.  

    But hey, thanks for playing.  
    I think you are at odds with yourself.

    Apple has never seen competition on its high end turf like it has now. To the point that this year's innovation in the handset market didn't come from Apple. If you want bleeding edge technology (lots do) you wouldn't buy this year's iPhone. That has been the reality of 2018. And you know that Apple has been sheltered from a large chunk of that competition on its home turf, which just happens to be the world's second largest smartphone market.

    Oh. That 'one vendor'. People are asking why its latest phone hasn't appeared on the D0X Mark listing yet. Rumours claim the results would be too far ahead of the pack as to be detrimental to itself. As the iPhone X Max didn't top the current board leader - which is already six months old - and the current leader is made by that 'one vendor', it is rumoured that the Mate 20 Pro won't get a listing until something from the competition tops the P20 Pro. You will counter that the listing is worthless and mostly serves for marketing but marketing is one of the cogs that moves this industry.

    It's not that Apple can't play the 'unit sales game and succeed'. It can, but at what price (no pun intended)?

    It's been flat on unit sales for three years now - in spite of attempts to open up its spread (both on models and pricing). So that is flat sales in spite of those actions. Care to imagine how things would have looked if they hadn't taken that action?

    Given the situation, one of the possible options is to compete with itself and produce new phones (not old phones) for the mid tier and try to differentiate them enough to shore up premium sales. It hasn't chosen that option - yet.

    But 2019 is served and the iPhones - for all their marketing - haven't really turned heads and now won't do so until the end of 2019. That is a lot of quarters and Samsung  (S10) is going to hit hard as soon as the gates open on  the New Year. Huawei (P30 Pro) will follow soon after and right around Apple the time Apple has its 2019 refresh, both vendors will launch the latest Note and Mates. 

    So Apple has an expensive phone (made more expensive by sales tax and currency realities in certain regions) that doesn't really offer the bells and whistles that the price warrants.

    It looks like Apple doesn't plan for larger unit shipments and may in fact be preparing for some contraction.

    Apple has the ultimate card to know the state of its current market: Apple ID.

    It knows absolutely everything it needs to know about the state of play. Active accounts and if users are bringing in extra revenues, how many devices are linked to each account, which devices go off radar, the family sphere of users.

    I have speculated in the past that the so called 'super cycle' might have actually happened, but simply didn't register in terms of far higher unit sales. Apple always knew exactly what happened of course and will never make that data public.

    Given the possible state of play, this decision not to provide unit sales makes sense for the company. Analysts will continue to speculate, it's their job after all, and the stock will twitch on occasion but that is no different to today and has no bearing on anything.

    In a post iPhone Apple world, the focus will move to other areas, iPhone included of course, but with less weight. Just like the Mac today. Important but not the be all and end all.

    More bullshit from the Huawei troll/shill.

    Newsflash: There have been countless "iPhone killers" over the last 7-8 years that were supposed to knock the iPhone off its perch at the high end. To date, not one of them has succeeded. The CLOSEST anyone got was the Galaxy S4 back in 2014, which managed to sell 10 million units in its first month. Since then it's all been downhill and nobody has ever come close since. What makes you think (besides being delusional) that Huawei is going to steal sales from Apple where everyone else has failed? Nobody cross shops the superior iPhone to the inferior Huawei flagships.

    So you come up with ridiculous theories (poor Huawei isn't allowed to sell in the US) to imply that if they playing field were equal that Huawei would magically outsell the iPhone. The reason Huawei won't outsell the iPhone is because they are inferior devices. Plain and simple.

    No bleeding edge technology from Apple? Only to someone who doesn't understand technology. Your precious Kirin 980 didn't turn out to be nearly as good as you predicted, so you had to try and redefine what makes a processor advanced (like thinking including a cellular modem in the chip somehow makes it better).
    Indeed. For a hilarious look at his preferred knockoff brand’s “innovation”, check this out:


    ...they even stole the pairing screen! Copying Apple is all these chinese knockoffs know to do. That their ripoff is called “Honor” is a hoot. 
    Avon B7 is a funny guy. 

    Always talking about premium Chinese smartphones, especially Huawei's P20 products, which he will never purchase due to price. just like most of the Android OS buyers. It's a halo device, not destined for even moderate sales, but look at those specs!

    Funny thing.

    Avon B7 isn't even close to being correct about Apple services.

    https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/9/2/the-apple-services-myth

    Yeah, the author of that stated just a few days ago that he wouldn't change a thing in that article from two years ago

    From the link;

    "The Actual Story

    Apple's original services narrative has been taken completely out of context. Management's goal in pointing out service revenue was to emphasize the value found within the iOS ecosystem, not to explain an upcoming pivot away from hardware.

    Here's Tim Cook on Apple's 1Q16 earnings call explaining Apple's services business: 

    "[A] growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. Because our customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content, and other services. 

    They also are very likely to buy other Apple products or replace the one they own. And because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will also love and use it often. 

    So, as a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has recently reached a major milestone, crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. This is an unbelievable asset for us. Because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues."

    Cook is making the case that Apple's service business is seeing strong growth because of the growth in the install base driven by hardware sales. Nowhere did Cook discuss a new Apple directive aimed at increasing services revenue. Specifically, Cook is taking the information found in Exhibit 1 and flipping it on its head."

    Avon B7 has no concept of the value of an ecosystem and a growing installed base, hence why his argument of choice always comes down to device hardware spec comparisons and price.

    For the record, EMUI sucks sweaty balls, and I can't imagine any iPhone user putting up with it.
    You realise that when someone on the outside says 'I wouldn't change a word in what I wrote two years ago', it is synonymous of a simple opinion?

    I have my opinion too and it hasn't changed either. And?

    You need to understand what is happening. Apple smartphone unit sales have stalled. Flat for over three years. That is the Apple smartphone reality - sans distortion field.

    I definitely didn't even whisper the idea of a 'pivot away from hardware'. I don't know if anyone did.

    Tim Cook speaks of growing the installed base through hand me downs etc because there is simply not much to speak of in real unit terms. He would be overjoyed if there was real unit growth - but there isn't.

    And install base is only part of the story anyway. What is of far more importance is how many unique and active Apple IDs there are. Note how Tim Cook, in spite of having those numbers too, doesn't provide them!

    You are obsessed with ASP (which has no value whatsoever for consumers) and ecosystem.

    One of the things that you also need to understand is that ecosystems are not the holy grail for users. They are simply platforms.

    As for halo effects, you are wrong there too.

    Halo effects exist on many levels. One of them is brand recognition. Huawei announced today that pre orders for the Mate 20 Pro were are 40% higher than for the P20 Pro. That is the halo effect of the P20 Pro.

    Huawei has also held onto the number two spot in smartphone sales for Q3. Every single newspiece with that information also adds that Apple has dropped. That is also halo effect.

    All of this propagates down the range. I don't need a P20 Pro. My Honor 10 is amazing. When I bought it it had the latest HiSilicon SoC, excellent build quality and just months after the stunning night mode rolled out on the P20 Pro, it was pushed out to the Honor 10 too. More halo effect.

    Honor just launched the Magic 2 and it already has the Kirin 980!

    What don't you like about EMUI? It definitely doesn't suck sweaty balls. LOL.


    Lol... Android vendors biggest competition are other Android vendors. Huawei  is not gonna do anything to take on Apple. Huawei may eat into Samsung sales but will not impact Apple at all. The p20 and Mate are just another Android vessel. 

    Next year a new Android vendor will be the flavour of the week. Samsung, Xaomi and Hauwei offer nothing in terms of ecosystem and sticky-ness. They are reliant on unit sales to make money. Apple is not reliant on unit sales to the same degree. The iOS ecosystem is a money making machine. What is Huawei offering? A spec arms race? Apple copy cat hardware? LG, HTC and Motorola say hi. 
    The flexibility of Android means that people can switch to other Android vendors relatively easily. That is an advantage for the consumer, not a disadvantage, though.

    Huawei's migration app includes iPhones. People switch from iOS to Android too. Some people want to have us believe that that never happens. It does.

    Stickiness is often cited but isn't nearly as sticky as you might think. If you want to switch, you do. The real question is if you want to switch. Clearly there hasn't been a massive switch to iOS so let's conclude that if stickiness is a factor, Android is just as sticky as iOS and within Android, stickiness must also exist as lots of users are upgrading to the same Android brand.

    At the low end where people upgrade more frequently, the loyalty factor goes down simply because a frequent upgrade philosophy encourages experimentation. Great for consumers again although with the big players people do often upgrade to another model within the same brand.

    Apple is a money making machine that's for sure but that grates on many users (myself included) as it means nothing to consumers and doesn't even get them more bang for buck. Paying more to make a company even richer and see most of the money sit offshore (tax free!) for literally YEARS and not improve hardware (take a long hard look at your 5W charger and refresh your memory on how much Apple has horded away) does nothing for the consumer.

    Huawei is not copy catting Apple hardware. Many designs are used by many manufacturers - Apple included.

    In fact Huawei has a lot of hardware that isn't even available on any iPhone!

    So while Huawei (lower ASP, less cash horded, more direct competition etc) was able to put out the P20 Pro and completely overshadow the iPhone X for less money and break sales records for the company, and then follow it up just six months later with the Mate 20 series with still more tech advances, Apple just took a couple of hours off from designing the Apple Park Christmas tree and pushed out an incremental upgrade (s cycle) for the 2018 refresh. 

    If you want to buy into that I have no issue. It's your call after all but from reading comments here I see a lot of long time Apple users speaking out against Apple's pricing upgrades. They are automatically labelled 'whiners' but only by the people who seem to think that ASP, earning the most profit etc is actually good for consumers. That is weird in itself.

    The next time you struggle to get a decent hand held night shot, can't go to 3x (or 5x hybrid) zoom when you really need it, run out of juice and end up waste time charging on your 5W charger, want a macro shot but can't focus, want to take a portrait shot but the camera app won't even let you press the shutter button due to low light, need an ultra wide angle to get everything in frame, bemoan the strength of your cellular or wifi reception etc, remember Apple's ASP and smile!
    I find it funny that you are advocating for Huawei to go all out to win the unit war, in a mature market. It doesn't make sense to me, given that Huawei is just rushing into its own stagnated market sooner than later.

    What exactly will Huawei win, and at what cost?

    Huawei isn't going to displace Apple, who will still sell far more, by units, premium iPhones than Huawei will ever sell of its own premium phones. Samsung is certainly not laying down, and will return with even more feature rich S10 models, and will expand new models into the midrange. Sure looks like Huawei will find itself in an arms race. Xiaomi certainly wants to be the low cost fast follower of Huawei, and will be happy to pick up the scraps.

    While all of that is happening, Apple continues to develop both its broad hardware and software offerings, and reap the service benefits of its increasing user base, now at 1.3B.

    So you really think that Huawei will make inroads on Apple with FlyPods, an absolute carbon copy of AirPod's industrial design?

    Apple is basically alerting the world that there is a rough ride ahead for the world's economies. You might want to note that, because whatever happens to Apple, they still sit on a pile of cash that they will use to pick up even more of those small innovators, but at firesale prices. Given that Apple could, at any time, market lower price models, should it need to increase units sales, I'm seeing a whole lot more risk to Chinese OEM's than I am to Apple.
    And you say I'm a funny guy! LOL

    Yes Apple could buy up more innovators but they already have quite a few bought up and on board and not much has shown for it this year! 

    There is very little in the industrial design of the Air Pods.  There are hundreds of ear buds on the market - but with wires attached. In fact you could simply cut the wires off many of those and you would be hard pressed to distinguish between them and Air Pods! The design isn't original at all but that's forgivable for the same reasons phones are rectangular.

    At least Honor is offering them in different colours and trying a new secure biometric option with BoneID. Not to mention being able to reverse charge them wirelessly on the Mate Pro. Did you mention Innovation?

    That's not to take anything away from Air Pods though, it's just adding some balance to your claim.

    And if Apple is alerting the world to a rough ride ahead, raising prices doesn't really paint that picture. It more like saying, 'as we might sell less, you have to pay more to keep our ASP afloat'!

    No, you are correct in saying Samsung won't lay down. Finally, they are reacting but Huawei will react too! Competition! Hooray!

    Of course, the result could lead to Apple eating the dust in the tech trail those two will leave behind so Apple better have something compelling lined up for 2019.

    As for Xiaomi, the more competition the better!
    Well, it’s official... you’re a troll. 
    edited November 2018 StrangeDays
  • Reply 109 of 117
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 12,959member
    avon b7 said:
    clarker99 said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    We are basically 'post iPhone' now (in company-wide terms) and after three years of flat growth, unit numbers possibly don't look too good going forward (in growth terms). 

    Apple has never had the kind of high-end premiun competition (at least on the current scale) as it has now and is (and has been) trying to open new revenue streams.

    Services is growing, (TV) content creation will probably go live next year and the car project will follow. Plus all the other areas.

    However, flat unit sales are not nice and any dip in handset sales would just make things worse from a stock perspective because iPhone sales have been the most important indicator for years. Giving a running commentary on unit sales (each earnings  call) and reporting things staying the same - or possibly getting worse is something to be avoided. 

    While iPhone X may have been the 'most popular' model this year, and in spite of all the joy with Q1 numbers, the reality is that sales are still more or less flat, again. Little has changed.

    We know people are being asked to pay more for the newer phones and at some point they won't want to (or won't be able to) and that point might be close. This year's refresh was not really that spectacular. To the point that many considered the Apple Watch to be the real star of the 2018 refresh.

    In a 'post iPhone' Apple world, it shouldn't be surprising to see a decision like this. Just look at the guidance for the next quarter. There will be another Q1 blow out but the revenue mix will be far more spread out, and as the year passes, iPhone unit sales might show signs of fatigue.

    By not giving unit sales, Apple gets some breathing space until the next refresh, which will need to be stronger than this year, but won't carry same importance as in previous years because other areas will have been strengthened by then and the content library will probably be rolling out.

    iPhone sales could take off of course, but I think Apple really doesn't expect that to happen and they are prefering to err on the side of caution.

    Apple obviously (and understandably) wants to play the decision down and say unit sales are less relevant. In a post iPhone Apple world it is true, but those numbers are still very much relevant nonetheless.
    While some of what you say is certainly the case (yes, Apple is obviously diversifying revenue streams) your take on it seems to suggest you believe that iPhone sales are bound to flatten out and Apple is reacting to
    that by attempting to charge higher prices.  But Apple is a huge data mining operation.  The company certainly has all the sales and marketing data it needs to dial the iPhone unit sales number where they want it, growing unit sales 20% year over year if they so wish; it would simply be a matter of producing iPhone models targeting certain market demographics at appropriate prices.  Because there’s demand all up and down the market, even here in the Philippines where most can’t afford one but nevertheless aspire to get their hands on one.  If Apple truly wanted to play the unit sales game against all comers, do you really think they couldn’t succeed?  

    Apple is in a different game.  The company has looked at price elasticity and decided it can maintain current unit numbers, even modestly growing them, while netting significantly more in ASP, by continuing up market away from those who have been attempting to follow Apple into the premium space.  That’s why you’re seeing A-series performance numbers that are running away from the competition, Face ID coming to the iPad, and other unmatched technology advances.  Did you even read Above Avalon’s recent article (under his free Weekly Articles section) regarding the grey market for iPhones and what that means?  I guess not.  You spout a lot about Apple’s supposed competition, championing one vendor in particular, but you show a remarkable, perhaps deliberately obtuse, lack of insight into the smartphone business.  

    But hey, thanks for playing.  
    I think you are at odds with yourself.

    Apple has never seen competition on its high end turf like it has now. To the point that this year's innovation in the handset market didn't come from Apple. If you want bleeding edge technology (lots do) you wouldn't buy this year's iPhone. That has been the reality of 2018. And you know that Apple has been sheltered from a large chunk of that competition on its home turf, which just happens to be the world's second largest smartphone market.

    Oh. That 'one vendor'. People are asking why its latest phone hasn't appeared on the D0X Mark listing yet. Rumours claim the results would be too far ahead of the pack as to be detrimental to itself. As the iPhone X Max didn't top the current board leader - which is already six months old - and the current leader is made by that 'one vendor', it is rumoured that the Mate 20 Pro won't get a listing until something from the competition tops the P20 Pro. You will counter that the listing is worthless and mostly serves for marketing but marketing is one of the cogs that moves this industry.

    It's not that Apple can't play the 'unit sales game and succeed'. It can, but at what price (no pun intended)?

    It's been flat on unit sales for three years now - in spite of attempts to open up its spread (both on models and pricing). So that is flat sales in spite of those actions. Care to imagine how things would have looked if they hadn't taken that action?

    Given the situation, one of the possible options is to compete with itself and produce new phones (not old phones) for the mid tier and try to differentiate them enough to shore up premium sales. It hasn't chosen that option - yet.

    But 2019 is served and the iPhones - for all their marketing - haven't really turned heads and now won't do so until the end of 2019. That is a lot of quarters and Samsung  (S10) is going to hit hard as soon as the gates open on  the New Year. Huawei (P30 Pro) will follow soon after and right around Apple the time Apple has its 2019 refresh, both vendors will launch the latest Note and Mates. 

    So Apple has an expensive phone (made more expensive by sales tax and currency realities in certain regions) that doesn't really offer the bells and whistles that the price warrants.

    It looks like Apple doesn't plan for larger unit shipments and may in fact be preparing for some contraction.

    Apple has the ultimate card to know the state of its current market: Apple ID.

    It knows absolutely everything it needs to know about the state of play. Active accounts and if users are bringing in extra revenues, how many devices are linked to each account, which devices go off radar, the family sphere of users.

    I have speculated in the past that the so called 'super cycle' might have actually happened, but simply didn't register in terms of far higher unit sales. Apple always knew exactly what happened of course and will never make that data public.

    Given the possible state of play, this decision not to provide unit sales makes sense for the company. Analysts will continue to speculate, it's their job after all, and the stock will twitch on occasion but that is no different to today and has no bearing on anything.

    In a post iPhone Apple world, the focus will move to other areas, iPhone included of course, but with less weight. Just like the Mac today. Important but not the be all and end all.

    More bullshit from the Huawei troll/shill.

    Newsflash: There have been countless "iPhone killers" over the last 7-8 years that were supposed to knock the iPhone off its perch at the high end. To date, not one of them has succeeded. The CLOSEST anyone got was the Galaxy S4 back in 2014, which managed to sell 10 million units in its first month. Since then it's all been downhill and nobody has ever come close since. What makes you think (besides being delusional) that Huawei is going to steal sales from Apple where everyone else has failed? Nobody cross shops the superior iPhone to the inferior Huawei flagships.

    So you come up with ridiculous theories (poor Huawei isn't allowed to sell in the US) to imply that if they playing field were equal that Huawei would magically outsell the iPhone. The reason Huawei won't outsell the iPhone is because they are inferior devices. Plain and simple.

    No bleeding edge technology from Apple? Only to someone who doesn't understand technology. Your precious Kirin 980 didn't turn out to be nearly as good as you predicted, so you had to try and redefine what makes a processor advanced (like thinking including a cellular modem in the chip somehow makes it better).
    Indeed. For a hilarious look at his preferred knockoff brand’s “innovation”, check this out:


    ...they even stole the pairing screen! Copying Apple is all these chinese knockoffs know to do. That their ripoff is called “Honor” is a hoot. 
    Avon B7 is a funny guy. 

    Always talking about premium Chinese smartphones, especially Huawei's P20 products, which he will never purchase due to price. just like most of the Android OS buyers. It's a halo device, not destined for even moderate sales, but look at those specs!

    Funny thing.

    Avon B7 isn't even close to being correct about Apple services.

    https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/9/2/the-apple-services-myth

    Yeah, the author of that stated just a few days ago that he wouldn't change a thing in that article from two years ago

    From the link;

    "The Actual Story

    Apple's original services narrative has been taken completely out of context. Management's goal in pointing out service revenue was to emphasize the value found within the iOS ecosystem, not to explain an upcoming pivot away from hardware.

    Here's Tim Cook on Apple's 1Q16 earnings call explaining Apple's services business: 

    "[A] growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. Because our customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content, and other services. 

    They also are very likely to buy other Apple products or replace the one they own. And because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will also love and use it often. 

    So, as a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has recently reached a major milestone, crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. This is an unbelievable asset for us. Because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues."

    Cook is making the case that Apple's service business is seeing strong growth because of the growth in the install base driven by hardware sales. Nowhere did Cook discuss a new Apple directive aimed at increasing services revenue. Specifically, Cook is taking the information found in Exhibit 1 and flipping it on its head."

    Avon B7 has no concept of the value of an ecosystem and a growing installed base, hence why his argument of choice always comes down to device hardware spec comparisons and price.

    For the record, EMUI sucks sweaty balls, and I can't imagine any iPhone user putting up with it.
    You realise that when someone on the outside says 'I wouldn't change a word in what I wrote two years ago', it is synonymous of a simple opinion?

    I have my opinion too and it hasn't changed either. And?

    You need to understand what is happening. Apple smartphone unit sales have stalled. Flat for over three years. That is the Apple smartphone reality - sans distortion field.

    I definitely didn't even whisper the idea of a 'pivot away from hardware'. I don't know if anyone did.

    Tim Cook speaks of growing the installed base through hand me downs etc because there is simply not much to speak of in real unit terms. He would be overjoyed if there was real unit growth - but there isn't.

    And install base is only part of the story anyway. What is of far more importance is how many unique and active Apple IDs there are. Note how Tim Cook, in spite of having those numbers too, doesn't provide them!

    You are obsessed with ASP (which has no value whatsoever for consumers) and ecosystem.

    One of the things that you also need to understand is that ecosystems are not the holy grail for users. They are simply platforms.

    As for halo effects, you are wrong there too.

    Halo effects exist on many levels. One of them is brand recognition. Huawei announced today that pre orders for the Mate 20 Pro were are 40% higher than for the P20 Pro. That is the halo effect of the P20 Pro.

    Huawei has also held onto the number two spot in smartphone sales for Q3. Every single newspiece with that information also adds that Apple has dropped. That is also halo effect.

    All of this propagates down the range. I don't need a P20 Pro. My Honor 10 is amazing. When I bought it it had the latest HiSilicon SoC, excellent build quality and just months after the stunning night mode rolled out on the P20 Pro, it was pushed out to the Honor 10 too. More halo effect.

    Honor just launched the Magic 2 and it already has the Kirin 980!

    What don't you like about EMUI? It definitely doesn't suck sweaty balls. LOL.


    Lol... Android vendors biggest competition are other Android vendors. Huawei  is not gonna do anything to take on Apple. Huawei may eat into Samsung sales but will not impact Apple at all. The p20 and Mate are just another Android vessel. 

    Next year a new Android vendor will be the flavour of the week. Samsung, Xaomi and Hauwei offer nothing in terms of ecosystem and sticky-ness. They are reliant on unit sales to make money. Apple is not reliant on unit sales to the same degree. The iOS ecosystem is a money making machine. What is Huawei offering? A spec arms race? Apple copy cat hardware? LG, HTC and Motorola say hi. 
    Apple is a money making machine that's for sure but that grates on many users (myself included) as it means nothing to consumers and doesn't even get them more bang for buck. Paying more to make a company even richer and see most of the money sit offshore (tax free!) for literally YEARS and not improve hardware (take a long hard look at your 5W charger and refresh your memory on how much Apple has horded away) does nothing for the consumer.

    Huawei is not copy catting Apple hardware.
    Many designs are used by many manufacturers - Apple included.

    In fact Huawei has a lot of hardware that isn't even available on any iPhone!

    So while Huawei (lower ASP, less cash horded, more direct competition etc) was able to put out the P20 Pro and completely overshadow the iPhone X for less money 
    God you’re full of shit. Claiming Apple isn’t improving its hardware because they stick to a 5W charger defiles any concept of logic. Apple often uses a tick-dock dev cycle on its phones and the X was the tick, the XS the tock. If inventing face ID wasn’t innovative I don’t know what is.  

    And clinging to the false narrative that your chinese knockoffs aren’t copying Apple left & right is self-delusion. 



    edited November 2018
  • Reply 110 of 117
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 12,959member
    clarker99 said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    clarker99 said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    We are basically 'post iPhone' now (in company-wide terms) and after three years of flat growth, unit numbers possibly don't look too good going forward (in growth terms). 

    Apple has never had the kind of high-end premiun competition (at least on the current scale) as it has now and is (and has been) trying to open new revenue streams.

    Services is growing, (TV) content creation will probably go live next year and the car project will follow. Plus all the other areas.

    However, flat unit sales are not nice and any dip in handset sales would just make things worse from a stock perspective because iPhone sales have been the most important indicator for years. Giving a running commentary on unit sales (each earnings  call) and reporting things staying the same - or possibly getting worse is something to be avoided. 

    While iPhone X may have been the 'most popular' model this year, and in spite of all the joy with Q1 numbers, the reality is that sales are still more or less flat, again. Little has changed.

    We know people are being asked to pay more for the newer phones and at some point they won't want to (or won't be able to) and that point might be close. This year's refresh was not really that spectacular. To the point that many considered the Apple Watch to be the real star of the 2018 refresh.

    In a 'post iPhone' Apple world, it shouldn't be surprising to see a decision like this. Just look at the guidance for the next quarter. There will be another Q1 blow out but the revenue mix will be far more spread out, and as the year passes, iPhone unit sales might show signs of fatigue.

    By not giving unit sales, Apple gets some breathing space until the next refresh, which will need to be stronger than this year, but won't carry same importance as in previous years because other areas will have been strengthened by then and the content library will probably be rolling out.

    iPhone sales could take off of course, but I think Apple really doesn't expect that to happen and they are prefering to err on the side of caution.

    Apple obviously (and understandably) wants to play the decision down and say unit sales are less relevant. In a post iPhone Apple world it is true, but those numbers are still very much relevant nonetheless.
    While some of what you say is certainly the case (yes, Apple is obviously diversifying revenue streams) your take on it seems to suggest you believe that iPhone sales are bound to flatten out and Apple is reacting to
    that by attempting to charge higher prices.  But Apple is a huge data mining operation.  The company certainly has all the sales and marketing data it needs to dial the iPhone unit sales number where they want it, growing unit sales 20% year over year if they so wish; it would simply be a matter of producing iPhone models targeting certain market demographics at appropriate prices.  Because there’s demand all up and down the market, even here in the Philippines where most can’t afford one but nevertheless aspire to get their hands on one.  If Apple truly wanted to play the unit sales game against all comers, do you really think they couldn’t succeed?  

    Apple is in a different game.  The company has looked at price elasticity and decided it can maintain current unit numbers, even modestly growing them, while netting significantly more in ASP, by continuing up market away from those who have been attempting to follow Apple into the premium space.  That’s why you’re seeing A-series performance numbers that are running away from the competition, Face ID coming to the iPad, and other unmatched technology advances.  Did you even read Above Avalon’s recent article (under his free Weekly Articles section) regarding the grey market for iPhones and what that means?  I guess not.  You spout a lot about Apple’s supposed competition, championing one vendor in particular, but you show a remarkable, perhaps deliberately obtuse, lack of insight into the smartphone business.  

    But hey, thanks for playing.  
    I think you are at odds with yourself.

    Apple has never seen competition on its high end turf like it has now. To the point that this year's innovation in the handset market didn't come from Apple. If you want bleeding edge technology (lots do) you wouldn't buy this year's iPhone. That has been the reality of 2018. And you know that Apple has been sheltered from a large chunk of that competition on its home turf, which just happens to be the world's second largest smartphone market.

    Oh. That 'one vendor'. People are asking why its latest phone hasn't appeared on the D0X Mark listing yet. Rumours claim the results would be too far ahead of the pack as to be detrimental to itself. As the iPhone X Max didn't top the current board leader - which is already six months old - and the current leader is made by that 'one vendor', it is rumoured that the Mate 20 Pro won't get a listing until something from the competition tops the P20 Pro. You will counter that the listing is worthless and mostly serves for marketing but marketing is one of the cogs that moves this industry.

    It's not that Apple can't play the 'unit sales game and succeed'. It can, but at what price (no pun intended)?

    It's been flat on unit sales for three years now - in spite of attempts to open up its spread (both on models and pricing). So that is flat sales in spite of those actions. Care to imagine how things would have looked if they hadn't taken that action?

    Given the situation, one of the possible options is to compete with itself and produce new phones (not old phones) for the mid tier and try to differentiate them enough to shore up premium sales. It hasn't chosen that option - yet.

    But 2019 is served and the iPhones - for all their marketing - haven't really turned heads and now won't do so until the end of 2019. That is a lot of quarters and Samsung  (S10) is going to hit hard as soon as the gates open on  the New Year. Huawei (P30 Pro) will follow soon after and right around Apple the time Apple has its 2019 refresh, both vendors will launch the latest Note and Mates. 

    So Apple has an expensive phone (made more expensive by sales tax and currency realities in certain regions) that doesn't really offer the bells and whistles that the price warrants.

    It looks like Apple doesn't plan for larger unit shipments and may in fact be preparing for some contraction.

    Apple has the ultimate card to know the state of its current market: Apple ID.

    It knows absolutely everything it needs to know about the state of play. Active accounts and if users are bringing in extra revenues, how many devices are linked to each account, which devices go off radar, the family sphere of users.

    I have speculated in the past that the so called 'super cycle' might have actually happened, but simply didn't register in terms of far higher unit sales. Apple always knew exactly what happened of course and will never make that data public.

    Given the possible state of play, this decision not to provide unit sales makes sense for the company. Analysts will continue to speculate, it's their job after all, and the stock will twitch on occasion but that is no different to today and has no bearing on anything.

    In a post iPhone Apple world, the focus will move to other areas, iPhone included of course, but with less weight. Just like the Mac today. Important but not the be all and end all.

    More bullshit from the Huawei troll/shill.

    Newsflash: There have been countless "iPhone killers" over the last 7-8 years that were supposed to knock the iPhone off its perch at the high end. To date, not one of them has succeeded. The CLOSEST anyone got was the Galaxy S4 back in 2014, which managed to sell 10 million units in its first month. Since then it's all been downhill and nobody has ever come close since. What makes you think (besides being delusional) that Huawei is going to steal sales from Apple where everyone else has failed? Nobody cross shops the superior iPhone to the inferior Huawei flagships.

    So you come up with ridiculous theories (poor Huawei isn't allowed to sell in the US) to imply that if they playing field were equal that Huawei would magically outsell the iPhone. The reason Huawei won't outsell the iPhone is because they are inferior devices. Plain and simple.

    No bleeding edge technology from Apple? Only to someone who doesn't understand technology. Your precious Kirin 980 didn't turn out to be nearly as good as you predicted, so you had to try and redefine what makes a processor advanced (like thinking including a cellular modem in the chip somehow makes it better).
    Indeed. For a hilarious look at his preferred knockoff brand’s “innovation”, check this out:


    ...they even stole the pairing screen! Copying Apple is all these chinese knockoffs know to do. That their ripoff is called “Honor” is a hoot. 
    Avon B7 is a funny guy. 

    Always talking about premium Chinese smartphones, especially Huawei's P20 products, which he will never purchase due to price. just like most of the Android OS buyers. It's a halo device, not destined for even moderate sales, but look at those specs!

    Funny thing.

    Avon B7 isn't even close to being correct about Apple services.

    https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/9/2/the-apple-services-myth

    Yeah, the author of that stated just a few days ago that he wouldn't change a thing in that article from two years ago

    From the link;

    "The Actual Story

    Apple's original services narrative has been taken completely out of context. Management's goal in pointing out service revenue was to emphasize the value found within the iOS ecosystem, not to explain an upcoming pivot away from hardware.

    Here's Tim Cook on Apple's 1Q16 earnings call explaining Apple's services business: 

    "[A] growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. Because our customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content, and other services. 

    They also are very likely to buy other Apple products or replace the one they own. And because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will also love and use it often. 

    So, as a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has recently reached a major milestone, crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. This is an unbelievable asset for us. Because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues."

    Cook is making the case that Apple's service business is seeing strong growth because of the growth in the install base driven by hardware sales. Nowhere did Cook discuss a new Apple directive aimed at increasing services revenue. Specifically, Cook is taking the information found in Exhibit 1 and flipping it on its head."

    Avon B7 has no concept of the value of an ecosystem and a growing installed base, hence why his argument of choice always comes down to device hardware spec comparisons and price.

    For the record, EMUI sucks sweaty balls, and I can't imagine any iPhone user putting up with it.
    You realise that when someone on the outside says 'I wouldn't change a word in what I wrote two years ago', it is synonymous of a simple opinion?

    I have my opinion too and it hasn't changed either. And?

    You need to understand what is happening. Apple smartphone unit sales have stalled. Flat for over three years. That is the Apple smartphone reality - sans distortion field.

    I definitely didn't even whisper the idea of a 'pivot away from hardware'. I don't know if anyone did.

    Tim Cook speaks of growing the installed base through hand me downs etc because there is simply not much to speak of in real unit terms. He would be overjoyed if there was real unit growth - but there isn't.

    And install base is only part of the story anyway. What is of far more importance is how many unique and active Apple IDs there are. Note how Tim Cook, in spite of having those numbers too, doesn't provide them!

    You are obsessed with ASP (which has no value whatsoever for consumers) and ecosystem.

    One of the things that you also need to understand is that ecosystems are not the holy grail for users. They are simply platforms.

    As for halo effects, you are wrong there too.

    Halo effects exist on many levels. One of them is brand recognition. Huawei announced today that pre orders for the Mate 20 Pro were are 40% higher than for the P20 Pro. That is the halo effect of the P20 Pro.

    Huawei has also held onto the number two spot in smartphone sales for Q3. Every single newspiece with that information also adds that Apple has dropped. That is also halo effect.

    All of this propagates down the range. I don't need a P20 Pro. My Honor 10 is amazing. When I bought it it had the latest HiSilicon SoC, excellent build quality and just months after the stunning night mode rolled out on the P20 Pro, it was pushed out to the Honor 10 too. More halo effect.

    Honor just launched the Magic 2 and it already has the Kirin 980!

    What don't you like about EMUI? It definitely doesn't suck sweaty balls. LOL.


    Lol... Android vendors biggest competition are other Android vendors. Huawei  is not gonna do anything to take on Apple. Huawei may eat into Samsung sales but will not impact Apple at all. The p20 and Mate are just another Android vessel. 

    Next year a new Android vendor will be the flavour of the week. Samsung, Xaomi and Hauwei offer nothing in terms of ecosystem and sticky-ness. They are reliant on unit sales to make money. Apple is not reliant on unit sales to the same degree. The iOS ecosystem is a money making machine. What is Huawei offering? A spec arms race? Apple copy cat hardware? LG, HTC and Motorola say hi. 
    The flexibility of Android means that people can switch to other Android vendors relatively easily. That is an advantage for the consumer, not a disadvantage, though.

    Huawei's migration app includes iPhones. People switch from iOS to Android too. Some people want to have us believe that that never happens. It does.

    Stickiness is often cited but isn't nearly as sticky as you might think. If you want to switch, you do. The real question is if you want to switch. Clearly there hasn't been a massive switch to iOS so let's conclude that if stickiness is a factor, Android is just as sticky as iOS and within Android, stickiness must also exist as lots of users are upgrading to the same Android brand.

    At the low end where people upgrade more frequently, the loyalty factor goes down simply because a frequent upgrade philosophy encourages experimentation. Great for consumers again although with the big players people do often upgrade to another model within the same brand.

    Apple is a money making machine that's for sure but that grates on many users (myself included) as it means nothing to consumers and doesn't even get them more bang for buck. Paying more to make a company even richer and see most of the money sit offshore (tax free!) for literally YEARS and not improve hardware (take a long hard look at your 5W charger and refresh your memory on how much Apple has horded away) does nothing for the consumer.

    Huawei is not copy catting Apple hardware. Many designs are used by many manufacturers - Apple included.

    In fact Huawei has a lot of hardware that isn't even available on any iPhone!

    So while Huawei (lower ASP, less cash horded, more direct competition etc) was able to put out the P20 Pro and completely overshadow the iPhone X for less money and break sales records for the company, and then follow it up just six months later with the Mate 20 series with still more tech advances, Apple just took a couple of hours off from designing the Apple Park Christmas tree and pushed out an incremental upgrade (s cycle) for the 2018 refresh. 

    If you want to buy into that I have no issue. It's your call after all but from reading comments here I see a lot of long time Apple users speaking out against Apple's pricing upgrades. They are automatically labelled 'whiners' but only by the people who seem to think that ASP, earning the most profit etc is actually good for consumers. That is weird in itself.

    The next time you struggle to get a decent hand held night shot, can't go to 3x (or 5x hybrid) zoom when you really need it, run out of juice and end up waste time charging on your 5W charger, want a macro shot but can't focus, want to take a portrait shot but the camera app won't even let you press the shutter button due to low light, need an ultra wide angle to get everything in frame, bemoan the strength of your cellular or wifi reception etc, remember Apple's ASP and smile!
    I find it funny that you are advocating for Huawei to go all out to win the unit war, in a mature market. It doesn't make sense to me, given that Huawei is just rushing into its own stagnated market sooner than later.

    What exactly will Huawei win, and at what cost?

    Huawei isn't going to displace Apple, who will still sell far more, by units, premium iPhones than Huawei will ever sell of its own premium phones. Samsung is certainly not laying down, and will return with even more feature rich S10 models, and will expand new models into the midrange. Sure looks like Huawei will find itself in an arms race. Xiaomi certainly wants to be the low cost fast follower of Huawei, and will be happy to pick up the scraps.

    While all of that is happening, Apple continues to develop both its broad hardware and software offerings, and reap the service benefits of its increasing user base, now at 1.3B.

    So you really think that Huawei will make inroads on Apple with FlyPods, an absolute carbon copy of AirPod's industrial design?

    Apple is basically alerting the world that there is a rough ride ahead for the world's economies. You might want to note that, because whatever happens to Apple, they still sit on a pile of cash that they will use to pick up even more of those small innovators, but at firesale prices. Given that Apple could, at any time, market lower price models, should it need to increase units sales, I'm seeing a whole lot more risk to Chinese OEM's than I am to Apple.
    And you say I'm a funny guy! LOL

    Yes Apple could buy up more innovators but they already have quite a few bought up and on board and not much has shown for it this year! 

    There is very little in the industrial design of the Air Pods.  There are hundreds of ear buds on the market - but with wires attached. In fact you could simply cut the wires off many of those and you would be hard pressed to distinguish between them and Air Pods! The design isn't original at all but that's forgivable for the same reasons phones are rectangular.

    At least Honor is offering them in different colours and trying a new secure biometric option with BoneID. Not to mention being able to reverse charge them wirelessly on the Mate Pro. Did you mention Innovation?

    That's not to take anything away from Air Pods though, it's just adding some balance to your claim.

    And if Apple is alerting the world to a rough ride ahead, raising prices doesn't really paint that picture. It more like saying, 'as we might sell less, you have to pay more to keep our ASP afloat'!

    No, you are correct in saying Samsung won't lay down. Finally, they are reacting but Huawei will react too! Competition! Hooray!

    Of course, the result could lead to Apple eating the dust in the tech trail those two will leave behind so Apple better have something compelling lined up for 2019.

    As for Xiaomi, the more competition the better!
    Well, it’s official... you’re a troll. 
    Yah. This yahoo is a shameless shill, it’s beyond the point of believability as it’s clearly delusional nonsense....he’s on a payroll or is just trolling everyone for kicks. Defending the “FlyPods” ripoffs as an “obvious design” (same argument we hear about every apple ripoff) was the final clue.  
    edited November 2018 SpamSandwich
  • Reply 111 of 117
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 7,891member
    avon b7 said:
    clarker99 said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    We are basically 'post iPhone' now (in company-wide terms) and after three years of flat growth, unit numbers possibly don't look too good going forward (in growth terms). 

    Apple has never had the kind of high-end premiun competition (at least on the current scale) as it has now and is (and has been) trying to open new revenue streams.

    Services is growing, (TV) content creation will probably go live next year and the car project will follow. Plus all the other areas.

    However, flat unit sales are not nice and any dip in handset sales would just make things worse from a stock perspective because iPhone sales have been the most important indicator for years. Giving a running commentary on unit sales (each earnings  call) and reporting things staying the same - or possibly getting worse is something to be avoided. 

    While iPhone X may have been the 'most popular' model this year, and in spite of all the joy with Q1 numbers, the reality is that sales are still more or less flat, again. Little has changed.

    We know people are being asked to pay more for the newer phones and at some point they won't want to (or won't be able to) and that point might be close. This year's refresh was not really that spectacular. To the point that many considered the Apple Watch to be the real star of the 2018 refresh.

    In a 'post iPhone' Apple world, it shouldn't be surprising to see a decision like this. Just look at the guidance for the next quarter. There will be another Q1 blow out but the revenue mix will be far more spread out, and as the year passes, iPhone unit sales might show signs of fatigue.

    By not giving unit sales, Apple gets some breathing space until the next refresh, which will need to be stronger than this year, but won't carry same importance as in previous years because other areas will have been strengthened by then and the content library will probably be rolling out.

    iPhone sales could take off of course, but I think Apple really doesn't expect that to happen and they are prefering to err on the side of caution.

    Apple obviously (and understandably) wants to play the decision down and say unit sales are less relevant. In a post iPhone Apple world it is true, but those numbers are still very much relevant nonetheless.
    While some of what you say is certainly the case (yes, Apple is obviously diversifying revenue streams) your take on it seems to suggest you believe that iPhone sales are bound to flatten out and Apple is reacting to
    that by attempting to charge higher prices.  But Apple is a huge data mining operation.  The company certainly has all the sales and marketing data it needs to dial the iPhone unit sales number where they want it, growing unit sales 20% year over year if they so wish; it would simply be a matter of producing iPhone models targeting certain market demographics at appropriate prices.  Because there’s demand all up and down the market, even here in the Philippines where most can’t afford one but nevertheless aspire to get their hands on one.  If Apple truly wanted to play the unit sales game against all comers, do you really think they couldn’t succeed?  

    Apple is in a different game.  The company has looked at price elasticity and decided it can maintain current unit numbers, even modestly growing them, while netting significantly more in ASP, by continuing up market away from those who have been attempting to follow Apple into the premium space.  That’s why you’re seeing A-series performance numbers that are running away from the competition, Face ID coming to the iPad, and other unmatched technology advances.  Did you even read Above Avalon’s recent article (under his free Weekly Articles section) regarding the grey market for iPhones and what that means?  I guess not.  You spout a lot about Apple’s supposed competition, championing one vendor in particular, but you show a remarkable, perhaps deliberately obtuse, lack of insight into the smartphone business.  

    But hey, thanks for playing.  
    I think you are at odds with yourself.

    Apple has never seen competition on its high end turf like it has now. To the point that this year's innovation in the handset market didn't come from Apple. If you want bleeding edge technology (lots do) you wouldn't buy this year's iPhone. That has been the reality of 2018. And you know that Apple has been sheltered from a large chunk of that competition on its home turf, which just happens to be the world's second largest smartphone market.

    Oh. That 'one vendor'. People are asking why its latest phone hasn't appeared on the D0X Mark listing yet. Rumours claim the results would be too far ahead of the pack as to be detrimental to itself. As the iPhone X Max didn't top the current board leader - which is already six months old - and the current leader is made by that 'one vendor', it is rumoured that the Mate 20 Pro won't get a listing until something from the competition tops the P20 Pro. You will counter that the listing is worthless and mostly serves for marketing but marketing is one of the cogs that moves this industry.

    It's not that Apple can't play the 'unit sales game and succeed'. It can, but at what price (no pun intended)?

    It's been flat on unit sales for three years now - in spite of attempts to open up its spread (both on models and pricing). So that is flat sales in spite of those actions. Care to imagine how things would have looked if they hadn't taken that action?

    Given the situation, one of the possible options is to compete with itself and produce new phones (not old phones) for the mid tier and try to differentiate them enough to shore up premium sales. It hasn't chosen that option - yet.

    But 2019 is served and the iPhones - for all their marketing - haven't really turned heads and now won't do so until the end of 2019. That is a lot of quarters and Samsung  (S10) is going to hit hard as soon as the gates open on  the New Year. Huawei (P30 Pro) will follow soon after and right around Apple the time Apple has its 2019 refresh, both vendors will launch the latest Note and Mates. 

    So Apple has an expensive phone (made more expensive by sales tax and currency realities in certain regions) that doesn't really offer the bells and whistles that the price warrants.

    It looks like Apple doesn't plan for larger unit shipments and may in fact be preparing for some contraction.

    Apple has the ultimate card to know the state of its current market: Apple ID.

    It knows absolutely everything it needs to know about the state of play. Active accounts and if users are bringing in extra revenues, how many devices are linked to each account, which devices go off radar, the family sphere of users.

    I have speculated in the past that the so called 'super cycle' might have actually happened, but simply didn't register in terms of far higher unit sales. Apple always knew exactly what happened of course and will never make that data public.

    Given the possible state of play, this decision not to provide unit sales makes sense for the company. Analysts will continue to speculate, it's their job after all, and the stock will twitch on occasion but that is no different to today and has no bearing on anything.

    In a post iPhone Apple world, the focus will move to other areas, iPhone included of course, but with less weight. Just like the Mac today. Important but not the be all and end all.

    More bullshit from the Huawei troll/shill.

    Newsflash: There have been countless "iPhone killers" over the last 7-8 years that were supposed to knock the iPhone off its perch at the high end. To date, not one of them has succeeded. The CLOSEST anyone got was the Galaxy S4 back in 2014, which managed to sell 10 million units in its first month. Since then it's all been downhill and nobody has ever come close since. What makes you think (besides being delusional) that Huawei is going to steal sales from Apple where everyone else has failed? Nobody cross shops the superior iPhone to the inferior Huawei flagships.

    So you come up with ridiculous theories (poor Huawei isn't allowed to sell in the US) to imply that if they playing field were equal that Huawei would magically outsell the iPhone. The reason Huawei won't outsell the iPhone is because they are inferior devices. Plain and simple.

    No bleeding edge technology from Apple? Only to someone who doesn't understand technology. Your precious Kirin 980 didn't turn out to be nearly as good as you predicted, so you had to try and redefine what makes a processor advanced (like thinking including a cellular modem in the chip somehow makes it better).
    Indeed. For a hilarious look at his preferred knockoff brand’s “innovation”, check this out:


    ...they even stole the pairing screen! Copying Apple is all these chinese knockoffs know to do. That their ripoff is called “Honor” is a hoot. 
    Avon B7 is a funny guy. 

    Always talking about premium Chinese smartphones, especially Huawei's P20 products, which he will never purchase due to price. just like most of the Android OS buyers. It's a halo device, not destined for even moderate sales, but look at those specs!

    Funny thing.

    Avon B7 isn't even close to being correct about Apple services.

    https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/9/2/the-apple-services-myth

    Yeah, the author of that stated just a few days ago that he wouldn't change a thing in that article from two years ago

    From the link;

    "The Actual Story

    Apple's original services narrative has been taken completely out of context. Management's goal in pointing out service revenue was to emphasize the value found within the iOS ecosystem, not to explain an upcoming pivot away from hardware.

    Here's Tim Cook on Apple's 1Q16 earnings call explaining Apple's services business: 

    "[A] growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. Because our customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content, and other services. 

    They also are very likely to buy other Apple products or replace the one they own. And because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will also love and use it often. 

    So, as a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has recently reached a major milestone, crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. This is an unbelievable asset for us. Because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues."

    Cook is making the case that Apple's service business is seeing strong growth because of the growth in the install base driven by hardware sales. Nowhere did Cook discuss a new Apple directive aimed at increasing services revenue. Specifically, Cook is taking the information found in Exhibit 1 and flipping it on its head."

    Avon B7 has no concept of the value of an ecosystem and a growing installed base, hence why his argument of choice always comes down to device hardware spec comparisons and price.

    For the record, EMUI sucks sweaty balls, and I can't imagine any iPhone user putting up with it.
    You realise that when someone on the outside says 'I wouldn't change a word in what I wrote two years ago', it is synonymous of a simple opinion?

    I have my opinion too and it hasn't changed either. And?

    You need to understand what is happening. Apple smartphone unit sales have stalled. Flat for over three years. That is the Apple smartphone reality - sans distortion field.

    I definitely didn't even whisper the idea of a 'pivot away from hardware'. I don't know if anyone did.

    Tim Cook speaks of growing the installed base through hand me downs etc because there is simply not much to speak of in real unit terms. He would be overjoyed if there was real unit growth - but there isn't.

    And install base is only part of the story anyway. What is of far more importance is how many unique and active Apple IDs there are. Note how Tim Cook, in spite of having those numbers too, doesn't provide them!

    You are obsessed with ASP (which has no value whatsoever for consumers) and ecosystem.

    One of the things that you also need to understand is that ecosystems are not the holy grail for users. They are simply platforms.

    As for halo effects, you are wrong there too.

    Halo effects exist on many levels. One of them is brand recognition. Huawei announced today that pre orders for the Mate 20 Pro were are 40% higher than for the P20 Pro. That is the halo effect of the P20 Pro.

    Huawei has also held onto the number two spot in smartphone sales for Q3. Every single newspiece with that information also adds that Apple has dropped. That is also halo effect.

    All of this propagates down the range. I don't need a P20 Pro. My Honor 10 is amazing. When I bought it it had the latest HiSilicon SoC, excellent build quality and just months after the stunning night mode rolled out on the P20 Pro, it was pushed out to the Honor 10 too. More halo effect.

    Honor just launched the Magic 2 and it already has the Kirin 980!

    What don't you like about EMUI? It definitely doesn't suck sweaty balls. LOL.


    Lol... Android vendors biggest competition are other Android vendors. Huawei  is not gonna do anything to take on Apple. Huawei may eat into Samsung sales but will not impact Apple at all. The p20 and Mate are just another Android vessel. 

    Next year a new Android vendor will be the flavour of the week. Samsung, Xaomi and Hauwei offer nothing in terms of ecosystem and sticky-ness. They are reliant on unit sales to make money. Apple is not reliant on unit sales to the same degree. The iOS ecosystem is a money making machine. What is Huawei offering? A spec arms race? Apple copy cat hardware? LG, HTC and Motorola say hi. 
    Apple is a money making machine that's for sure but that grates on many users (myself included) as it means nothing to consumers and doesn't even get them more bang for buck. Paying more to make a company even richer and see most of the money sit offshore (tax free!) for literally YEARS and not improve hardware (take a long hard look at your 5W charger and refresh your memory on how much Apple has horded away) does nothing for the consumer.

    Huawei is not copy catting Apple hardware.
    Many designs are used by many manufacturers - Apple included.

    In fact Huawei has a lot of hardware that isn't even available on any iPhone!

    So while Huawei (lower ASP, less cash horded, more direct competition etc) was able to put out the P20 Pro and completely overshadow the iPhone X for less money 
    God you’re full of shit. Claiming Apple isn’t improving its hardware because they stick to a 5W charger defiles any concept of logic. Apple often uses a tick-dock dev cycle on its phones and the X was the tick, the XS the tock. If inventing face ID wasn’t innovative I don’t know what is.  

    And clinging to the false narrative that your chinese knockoffs aren’t copying Apple left & right is self-delusion. 



    You know, there are only limited options available when designing the shape of a phone and its key elements. Huawei releases a boatload of phones every year catering to different markets and price bands. Do a search for dual camera phones (Huawei was there before Apple, let's not forget). You will see a boatload of designs but you will eventually run out of options and end up repeating. Horizontal, Vertical, grouped (or not), bump (or not), left, right or centre aligned etc. Now, Huawei has chosen an upper centred 'square' look with a bump. It looks cool, amazing in person.

    This design was sent to Huawei direct from Jony Ive's office by a chip the size of a grain of rice sitting on his unreleased 5mm thick, triangular, Mac Pro!

    BTW, that's one nice notchless screen you put there. Is that an Apple design that the Chinese knocked off too?

    The 5W charger in 2019 (this is the 2019 phone remember) is frankly an insult. As for 'logic', there is none to be had for the user after paying over 800€ for the 'cheapest' new model but I don't expect you to share my view.


  • Reply 112 of 117
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,439member
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    clarker99 said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    We are basically 'post iPhone' now (in company-wide terms) and after three years of flat growth, unit numbers possibly don't look too good going forward (in growth terms). 

    Apple has never had the kind of high-end premiun competition (at least on the current scale) as it has now and is (and has been) trying to open new revenue streams.

    Services is growing, (TV) content creation will probably go live next year and the car project will follow. Plus all the other areas.

    However, flat unit sales are not nice and any dip in handset sales would just make things worse from a stock perspective because iPhone sales have been the most important indicator for years. Giving a running commentary on unit sales (each earnings  call) and reporting things staying the same - or possibly getting worse is something to be avoided. 

    While iPhone X may have been the 'most popular' model this year, and in spite of all the joy with Q1 numbers, the reality is that sales are still more or less flat, again. Little has changed.

    We know people are being asked to pay more for the newer phones and at some point they won't want to (or won't be able to) and that point might be close. This year's refresh was not really that spectacular. To the point that many considered the Apple Watch to be the real star of the 2018 refresh.

    In a 'post iPhone' Apple world, it shouldn't be surprising to see a decision like this. Just look at the guidance for the next quarter. There will be another Q1 blow out but the revenue mix will be far more spread out, and as the year passes, iPhone unit sales might show signs of fatigue.

    By not giving unit sales, Apple gets some breathing space until the next refresh, which will need to be stronger than this year, but won't carry same importance as in previous years because other areas will have been strengthened by then and the content library will probably be rolling out.

    iPhone sales could take off of course, but I think Apple really doesn't expect that to happen and they are prefering to err on the side of caution.

    Apple obviously (and understandably) wants to play the decision down and say unit sales are less relevant. In a post iPhone Apple world it is true, but those numbers are still very much relevant nonetheless.
    While some of what you say is certainly the case (yes, Apple is obviously diversifying revenue streams) your take on it seems to suggest you believe that iPhone sales are bound to flatten out and Apple is reacting to
    that by attempting to charge higher prices.  But Apple is a huge data mining operation.  The company certainly has all the sales and marketing data it needs to dial the iPhone unit sales number where they want it, growing unit sales 20% year over year if they so wish; it would simply be a matter of producing iPhone models targeting certain market demographics at appropriate prices.  Because there’s demand all up and down the market, even here in the Philippines where most can’t afford one but nevertheless aspire to get their hands on one.  If Apple truly wanted to play the unit sales game against all comers, do you really think they couldn’t succeed?  

    Apple is in a different game.  The company has looked at price elasticity and decided it can maintain current unit numbers, even modestly growing them, while netting significantly more in ASP, by continuing up market away from those who have been attempting to follow Apple into the premium space.  That’s why you’re seeing A-series performance numbers that are running away from the competition, Face ID coming to the iPad, and other unmatched technology advances.  Did you even read Above Avalon’s recent article (under his free Weekly Articles section) regarding the grey market for iPhones and what that means?  I guess not.  You spout a lot about Apple’s supposed competition, championing one vendor in particular, but you show a remarkable, perhaps deliberately obtuse, lack of insight into the smartphone business.  

    But hey, thanks for playing.  
    I think you are at odds with yourself.

    Apple has never seen competition on its high end turf like it has now. To the point that this year's innovation in the handset market didn't come from Apple. If you want bleeding edge technology (lots do) you wouldn't buy this year's iPhone. That has been the reality of 2018. And you know that Apple has been sheltered from a large chunk of that competition on its home turf, which just happens to be the world's second largest smartphone market.

    Oh. That 'one vendor'. People are asking why its latest phone hasn't appeared on the D0X Mark listing yet. Rumours claim the results would be too far ahead of the pack as to be detrimental to itself. As the iPhone X Max didn't top the current board leader - which is already six months old - and the current leader is made by that 'one vendor', it is rumoured that the Mate 20 Pro won't get a listing until something from the competition tops the P20 Pro. You will counter that the listing is worthless and mostly serves for marketing but marketing is one of the cogs that moves this industry.

    It's not that Apple can't play the 'unit sales game and succeed'. It can, but at what price (no pun intended)?

    It's been flat on unit sales for three years now - in spite of attempts to open up its spread (both on models and pricing). So that is flat sales in spite of those actions. Care to imagine how things would have looked if they hadn't taken that action?

    Given the situation, one of the possible options is to compete with itself and produce new phones (not old phones) for the mid tier and try to differentiate them enough to shore up premium sales. It hasn't chosen that option - yet.

    But 2019 is served and the iPhones - for all their marketing - haven't really turned heads and now won't do so until the end of 2019. That is a lot of quarters and Samsung  (S10) is going to hit hard as soon as the gates open on  the New Year. Huawei (P30 Pro) will follow soon after and right around Apple the time Apple has its 2019 refresh, both vendors will launch the latest Note and Mates. 

    So Apple has an expensive phone (made more expensive by sales tax and currency realities in certain regions) that doesn't really offer the bells and whistles that the price warrants.

    It looks like Apple doesn't plan for larger unit shipments and may in fact be preparing for some contraction.

    Apple has the ultimate card to know the state of its current market: Apple ID.

    It knows absolutely everything it needs to know about the state of play. Active accounts and if users are bringing in extra revenues, how many devices are linked to each account, which devices go off radar, the family sphere of users.

    I have speculated in the past that the so called 'super cycle' might have actually happened, but simply didn't register in terms of far higher unit sales. Apple always knew exactly what happened of course and will never make that data public.

    Given the possible state of play, this decision not to provide unit sales makes sense for the company. Analysts will continue to speculate, it's their job after all, and the stock will twitch on occasion but that is no different to today and has no bearing on anything.

    In a post iPhone Apple world, the focus will move to other areas, iPhone included of course, but with less weight. Just like the Mac today. Important but not the be all and end all.

    More bullshit from the Huawei troll/shill.

    Newsflash: There have been countless "iPhone killers" over the last 7-8 years that were supposed to knock the iPhone off its perch at the high end. To date, not one of them has succeeded. The CLOSEST anyone got was the Galaxy S4 back in 2014, which managed to sell 10 million units in its first month. Since then it's all been downhill and nobody has ever come close since. What makes you think (besides being delusional) that Huawei is going to steal sales from Apple where everyone else has failed? Nobody cross shops the superior iPhone to the inferior Huawei flagships.

    So you come up with ridiculous theories (poor Huawei isn't allowed to sell in the US) to imply that if they playing field were equal that Huawei would magically outsell the iPhone. The reason Huawei won't outsell the iPhone is because they are inferior devices. Plain and simple.

    No bleeding edge technology from Apple? Only to someone who doesn't understand technology. Your precious Kirin 980 didn't turn out to be nearly as good as you predicted, so you had to try and redefine what makes a processor advanced (like thinking including a cellular modem in the chip somehow makes it better).
    Indeed. For a hilarious look at his preferred knockoff brand’s “innovation”, check this out:


    ...they even stole the pairing screen! Copying Apple is all these chinese knockoffs know to do. That their ripoff is called “Honor” is a hoot. 
    Avon B7 is a funny guy. 

    Always talking about premium Chinese smartphones, especially Huawei's P20 products, which he will never purchase due to price. just like most of the Android OS buyers. It's a halo device, not destined for even moderate sales, but look at those specs!

    Funny thing.

    Avon B7 isn't even close to being correct about Apple services.

    https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/9/2/the-apple-services-myth

    Yeah, the author of that stated just a few days ago that he wouldn't change a thing in that article from two years ago

    From the link;

    "The Actual Story

    Apple's original services narrative has been taken completely out of context. Management's goal in pointing out service revenue was to emphasize the value found within the iOS ecosystem, not to explain an upcoming pivot away from hardware.

    Here's Tim Cook on Apple's 1Q16 earnings call explaining Apple's services business: 

    "[A] growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. Because our customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content, and other services. 

    They also are very likely to buy other Apple products or replace the one they own. And because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will also love and use it often. 

    So, as a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has recently reached a major milestone, crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. This is an unbelievable asset for us. Because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues."

    Cook is making the case that Apple's service business is seeing strong growth because of the growth in the install base driven by hardware sales. Nowhere did Cook discuss a new Apple directive aimed at increasing services revenue. Specifically, Cook is taking the information found in Exhibit 1 and flipping it on its head."

    Avon B7 has no concept of the value of an ecosystem and a growing installed base, hence why his argument of choice always comes down to device hardware spec comparisons and price.

    For the record, EMUI sucks sweaty balls, and I can't imagine any iPhone user putting up with it.
    You realise that when someone on the outside says 'I wouldn't change a word in what I wrote two years ago', it is synonymous of a simple opinion?

    I have my opinion too and it hasn't changed either. And?

    You need to understand what is happening. Apple smartphone unit sales have stalled. Flat for over three years. That is the Apple smartphone reality - sans distortion field.

    I definitely didn't even whisper the idea of a 'pivot away from hardware'. I don't know if anyone did.

    Tim Cook speaks of growing the installed base through hand me downs etc because there is simply not much to speak of in real unit terms. He would be overjoyed if there was real unit growth - but there isn't.

    And install base is only part of the story anyway. What is of far more importance is how many unique and active Apple IDs there are. Note how Tim Cook, in spite of having those numbers too, doesn't provide them!

    You are obsessed with ASP (which has no value whatsoever for consumers) and ecosystem.

    One of the things that you also need to understand is that ecosystems are not the holy grail for users. They are simply platforms.

    As for halo effects, you are wrong there too.

    Halo effects exist on many levels. One of them is brand recognition. Huawei announced today that pre orders for the Mate 20 Pro were are 40% higher than for the P20 Pro. That is the halo effect of the P20 Pro.

    Huawei has also held onto the number two spot in smartphone sales for Q3. Every single newspiece with that information also adds that Apple has dropped. That is also halo effect.

    All of this propagates down the range. I don't need a P20 Pro. My Honor 10 is amazing. When I bought it it had the latest HiSilicon SoC, excellent build quality and just months after the stunning night mode rolled out on the P20 Pro, it was pushed out to the Honor 10 too. More halo effect.

    Honor just launched the Magic 2 and it already has the Kirin 980!

    What don't you like about EMUI? It definitely doesn't suck sweaty balls. LOL.


    Lol... Android vendors biggest competition are other Android vendors. Huawei  is not gonna do anything to take on Apple. Huawei may eat into Samsung sales but will not impact Apple at all. The p20 and Mate are just another Android vessel. 

    Next year a new Android vendor will be the flavour of the week. Samsung, Xaomi and Hauwei offer nothing in terms of ecosystem and sticky-ness. They are reliant on unit sales to make money. Apple is not reliant on unit sales to the same degree. The iOS ecosystem is a money making machine. What is Huawei offering? A spec arms race? Apple copy cat hardware? LG, HTC and Motorola say hi. 
    Apple is a money making machine that's for sure but that grates on many users (myself included) as it means nothing to consumers and doesn't even get them more bang for buck. Paying more to make a company even richer and see most of the money sit offshore (tax free!) for literally YEARS and not improve hardware (take a long hard look at your 5W charger and refresh your memory on how much Apple has horded away) does nothing for the consumer.

    Huawei is not copy catting Apple hardware.
    Many designs are used by many manufacturers - Apple included.

    In fact Huawei has a lot of hardware that isn't even available on any iPhone!

    So while Huawei (lower ASP, less cash horded, more direct competition etc) was able to put out the P20 Pro and completely overshadow the iPhone X for less money 
    God you’re full of shit. Claiming Apple isn’t improving its hardware because they stick to a 5W charger defiles any concept of logic. Apple often uses a tick-dock dev cycle on its phones and the X was the tick, the XS the tock. If inventing face ID wasn’t innovative I don’t know what is.  

    And clinging to the false narrative that your chinese knockoffs aren’t copying Apple left & right is self-delusion. 



    You know, there are only limited options available when designing the shape of a phone and its key elements. Huawei releases a boatload of phones every year catering to different markets and price bands. Do a search for dual camera phones (Huawei was there before Apple, let's not forget). You will see a boatload of designs but you will eventually run out of options and end up repeating. Horizontal, Vertical, grouped (or not), bump (or not), left, right or centre aligned etc. Now, Huawei has chosen an upper centred 'square' look with a bump. It looks cool, amazing in person.

    This design was sent to Huawei direct from Jony Ive's office by a chip the size of a grain of rice sitting on his unreleased 5mm thick, triangular, Mac Pro!

    BTW, that's one nice notchless screen you put there. Is that an Apple design that the Chinese knocked off too?

    The 5W charger in 2019 (this is the 2019 phone remember) is frankly an insult. As for 'logic', there is none to be had for the user after paying over 800€ for the 'cheapest' new model but I don't expect you to share my view.


    Oh, a Huawei with a mini chin. What great industrial design.

    https://qz.com/india/1445398/apple-iphone-profits-eclipse-cheap-xiaomi-smartphones-in-india/

    This is the future of Android OS devices.


    EDIT:

    https://www.gizmochina.com/2018/11/02/huawei-responds-mate-20-pro-screen-issues/

    Seems to be a manufacturing issue. Huawei's response is "wishy washy".
    edited November 2018
  • Reply 113 of 117
    StrangeDaysStrangeDays Posts: 12,959member
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    clarker99 said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    We are basically 'post iPhone' now (in company-wide terms) and after three years of flat growth, unit numbers possibly don't look too good going forward (in growth terms). 

    Apple has never had the kind of high-end premiun competition (at least on the current scale) as it has now and is (and has been) trying to open new revenue streams.

    Services is growing, (TV) content creation will probably go live next year and the car project will follow. Plus all the other areas.

    However, flat unit sales are not nice and any dip in handset sales would just make things worse from a stock perspective because iPhone sales have been the most important indicator for years. Giving a running commentary on unit sales (each earnings  call) and reporting things staying the same - or possibly getting worse is something to be avoided. 

    While iPhone X may have been the 'most popular' model this year, and in spite of all the joy with Q1 numbers, the reality is that sales are still more or less flat, again. Little has changed.

    We know people are being asked to pay more for the newer phones and at some point they won't want to (or won't be able to) and that point might be close. This year's refresh was not really that spectacular. To the point that many considered the Apple Watch to be the real star of the 2018 refresh.

    In a 'post iPhone' Apple world, it shouldn't be surprising to see a decision like this. Just look at the guidance for the next quarter. There will be another Q1 blow out but the revenue mix will be far more spread out, and as the year passes, iPhone unit sales might show signs of fatigue.

    By not giving unit sales, Apple gets some breathing space until the next refresh, which will need to be stronger than this year, but won't carry same importance as in previous years because other areas will have been strengthened by then and the content library will probably be rolling out.

    iPhone sales could take off of course, but I think Apple really doesn't expect that to happen and they are prefering to err on the side of caution.

    Apple obviously (and understandably) wants to play the decision down and say unit sales are less relevant. In a post iPhone Apple world it is true, but those numbers are still very much relevant nonetheless.
    While some of what you say is certainly the case (yes, Apple is obviously diversifying revenue streams) your take on it seems to suggest you believe that iPhone sales are bound to flatten out and Apple is reacting to
    that by attempting to charge higher prices.  But Apple is a huge data mining operation.  The company certainly has all the sales and marketing data it needs to dial the iPhone unit sales number where they want it, growing unit sales 20% year over year if they so wish; it would simply be a matter of producing iPhone models targeting certain market demographics at appropriate prices.  Because there’s demand all up and down the market, even here in the Philippines where most can’t afford one but nevertheless aspire to get their hands on one.  If Apple truly wanted to play the unit sales game against all comers, do you really think they couldn’t succeed?  

    Apple is in a different game.  The company has looked at price elasticity and decided it can maintain current unit numbers, even modestly growing them, while netting significantly more in ASP, by continuing up market away from those who have been attempting to follow Apple into the premium space.  That’s why you’re seeing A-series performance numbers that are running away from the competition, Face ID coming to the iPad, and other unmatched technology advances.  Did you even read Above Avalon’s recent article (under his free Weekly Articles section) regarding the grey market for iPhones and what that means?  I guess not.  You spout a lot about Apple’s supposed competition, championing one vendor in particular, but you show a remarkable, perhaps deliberately obtuse, lack of insight into the smartphone business.  

    But hey, thanks for playing.  
    I think you are at odds with yourself.

    Apple has never seen competition on its high end turf like it has now. To the point that this year's innovation in the handset market didn't come from Apple. If you want bleeding edge technology (lots do) you wouldn't buy this year's iPhone. That has been the reality of 2018. And you know that Apple has been sheltered from a large chunk of that competition on its home turf, which just happens to be the world's second largest smartphone market.

    Oh. That 'one vendor'. People are asking why its latest phone hasn't appeared on the D0X Mark listing yet. Rumours claim the results would be too far ahead of the pack as to be detrimental to itself. As the iPhone X Max didn't top the current board leader - which is already six months old - and the current leader is made by that 'one vendor', it is rumoured that the Mate 20 Pro won't get a listing until something from the competition tops the P20 Pro. You will counter that the listing is worthless and mostly serves for marketing but marketing is one of the cogs that moves this industry.

    It's not that Apple can't play the 'unit sales game and succeed'. It can, but at what price (no pun intended)?

    It's been flat on unit sales for three years now - in spite of attempts to open up its spread (both on models and pricing). So that is flat sales in spite of those actions. Care to imagine how things would have looked if they hadn't taken that action?

    Given the situation, one of the possible options is to compete with itself and produce new phones (not old phones) for the mid tier and try to differentiate them enough to shore up premium sales. It hasn't chosen that option - yet.

    But 2019 is served and the iPhones - for all their marketing - haven't really turned heads and now won't do so until the end of 2019. That is a lot of quarters and Samsung  (S10) is going to hit hard as soon as the gates open on  the New Year. Huawei (P30 Pro) will follow soon after and right around Apple the time Apple has its 2019 refresh, both vendors will launch the latest Note and Mates. 

    So Apple has an expensive phone (made more expensive by sales tax and currency realities in certain regions) that doesn't really offer the bells and whistles that the price warrants.

    It looks like Apple doesn't plan for larger unit shipments and may in fact be preparing for some contraction.

    Apple has the ultimate card to know the state of its current market: Apple ID.

    It knows absolutely everything it needs to know about the state of play. Active accounts and if users are bringing in extra revenues, how many devices are linked to each account, which devices go off radar, the family sphere of users.

    I have speculated in the past that the so called 'super cycle' might have actually happened, but simply didn't register in terms of far higher unit sales. Apple always knew exactly what happened of course and will never make that data public.

    Given the possible state of play, this decision not to provide unit sales makes sense for the company. Analysts will continue to speculate, it's their job after all, and the stock will twitch on occasion but that is no different to today and has no bearing on anything.

    In a post iPhone Apple world, the focus will move to other areas, iPhone included of course, but with less weight. Just like the Mac today. Important but not the be all and end all.

    More bullshit from the Huawei troll/shill.

    Newsflash: There have been countless "iPhone killers" over the last 7-8 years that were supposed to knock the iPhone off its perch at the high end. To date, not one of them has succeeded. The CLOSEST anyone got was the Galaxy S4 back in 2014, which managed to sell 10 million units in its first month. Since then it's all been downhill and nobody has ever come close since. What makes you think (besides being delusional) that Huawei is going to steal sales from Apple where everyone else has failed? Nobody cross shops the superior iPhone to the inferior Huawei flagships.

    So you come up with ridiculous theories (poor Huawei isn't allowed to sell in the US) to imply that if they playing field were equal that Huawei would magically outsell the iPhone. The reason Huawei won't outsell the iPhone is because they are inferior devices. Plain and simple.

    No bleeding edge technology from Apple? Only to someone who doesn't understand technology. Your precious Kirin 980 didn't turn out to be nearly as good as you predicted, so you had to try and redefine what makes a processor advanced (like thinking including a cellular modem in the chip somehow makes it better).
    Indeed. For a hilarious look at his preferred knockoff brand’s “innovation”, check this out:


    ...they even stole the pairing screen! Copying Apple is all these chinese knockoffs know to do. That their ripoff is called “Honor” is a hoot. 
    Avon B7 is a funny guy. 

    Always talking about premium Chinese smartphones, especially Huawei's P20 products, which he will never purchase due to price. just like most of the Android OS buyers. It's a halo device, not destined for even moderate sales, but look at those specs!

    Funny thing.

    Avon B7 isn't even close to being correct about Apple services.

    https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/9/2/the-apple-services-myth

    Yeah, the author of that stated just a few days ago that he wouldn't change a thing in that article from two years ago

    From the link;

    "The Actual Story

    Apple's original services narrative has been taken completely out of context. Management's goal in pointing out service revenue was to emphasize the value found within the iOS ecosystem, not to explain an upcoming pivot away from hardware.

    Here's Tim Cook on Apple's 1Q16 earnings call explaining Apple's services business: 

    "[A] growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. Because our customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content, and other services. 

    They also are very likely to buy other Apple products or replace the one they own. And because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will also love and use it often. 

    So, as a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has recently reached a major milestone, crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. This is an unbelievable asset for us. Because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues."

    Cook is making the case that Apple's service business is seeing strong growth because of the growth in the install base driven by hardware sales. Nowhere did Cook discuss a new Apple directive aimed at increasing services revenue. Specifically, Cook is taking the information found in Exhibit 1 and flipping it on its head."

    Avon B7 has no concept of the value of an ecosystem and a growing installed base, hence why his argument of choice always comes down to device hardware spec comparisons and price.

    For the record, EMUI sucks sweaty balls, and I can't imagine any iPhone user putting up with it.
    You realise that when someone on the outside says 'I wouldn't change a word in what I wrote two years ago', it is synonymous of a simple opinion?

    I have my opinion too and it hasn't changed either. And?

    You need to understand what is happening. Apple smartphone unit sales have stalled. Flat for over three years. That is the Apple smartphone reality - sans distortion field.

    I definitely didn't even whisper the idea of a 'pivot away from hardware'. I don't know if anyone did.

    Tim Cook speaks of growing the installed base through hand me downs etc because there is simply not much to speak of in real unit terms. He would be overjoyed if there was real unit growth - but there isn't.

    And install base is only part of the story anyway. What is of far more importance is how many unique and active Apple IDs there are. Note how Tim Cook, in spite of having those numbers too, doesn't provide them!

    You are obsessed with ASP (which has no value whatsoever for consumers) and ecosystem.

    One of the things that you also need to understand is that ecosystems are not the holy grail for users. They are simply platforms.

    As for halo effects, you are wrong there too.

    Halo effects exist on many levels. One of them is brand recognition. Huawei announced today that pre orders for the Mate 20 Pro were are 40% higher than for the P20 Pro. That is the halo effect of the P20 Pro.

    Huawei has also held onto the number two spot in smartphone sales for Q3. Every single newspiece with that information also adds that Apple has dropped. That is also halo effect.

    All of this propagates down the range. I don't need a P20 Pro. My Honor 10 is amazing. When I bought it it had the latest HiSilicon SoC, excellent build quality and just months after the stunning night mode rolled out on the P20 Pro, it was pushed out to the Honor 10 too. More halo effect.

    Honor just launched the Magic 2 and it already has the Kirin 980!

    What don't you like about EMUI? It definitely doesn't suck sweaty balls. LOL.


    Lol... Android vendors biggest competition are other Android vendors. Huawei  is not gonna do anything to take on Apple. Huawei may eat into Samsung sales but will not impact Apple at all. The p20 and Mate are just another Android vessel. 

    Next year a new Android vendor will be the flavour of the week. Samsung, Xaomi and Hauwei offer nothing in terms of ecosystem and sticky-ness. They are reliant on unit sales to make money. Apple is not reliant on unit sales to the same degree. The iOS ecosystem is a money making machine. What is Huawei offering? A spec arms race? Apple copy cat hardware? LG, HTC and Motorola say hi. 
    Apple is a money making machine that's for sure but that grates on many users (myself included) as it means nothing to consumers and doesn't even get them more bang for buck. Paying more to make a company even richer and see most of the money sit offshore (tax free!) for literally YEARS and not improve hardware (take a long hard look at your 5W charger and refresh your memory on how much Apple has horded away) does nothing for the consumer.

    Huawei is not copy catting Apple hardware.
    Many designs are used by many manufacturers - Apple included.

    In fact Huawei has a lot of hardware that isn't even available on any iPhone!

    So while Huawei (lower ASP, less cash horded, more direct competition etc) was able to put out the P20 Pro and completely overshadow the iPhone X for less money 
    God you’re full of shit. Claiming Apple isn’t improving its hardware because they stick to a 5W charger defiles any concept of logic. Apple often uses a tick-dock dev cycle on its phones and the X was the tick, the XS the tock. If inventing face ID wasn’t innovative I don’t know what is.  

    And clinging to the false narrative that your chinese knockoffs aren’t copying Apple left & right is self-delusion. 



    You know, there are only limited options available when designing the shape of a phone and its key elements. Huawei releases a boatload of phones every year catering to different markets and price bands. Do a search for dual camera phones (Huawei was there before Apple, let's not forget). You will see a boatload of designs but you will eventually run out of options and end up repeating. Horizontal, Vertical, grouped (or not), bump (or not), left, right or centre aligned etc. Now, Huawei has chosen an upper centred 'square' look with a bump. It looks cool, amazing in person.

    This design was sent to Huawei direct from Jony Ive's office by a chip the size of a grain of rice sitting on his unreleased 5mm thick, triangular, Mac Pro!

    BTW, that's one nice notchless screen you put there.
    Is that an Apple design that the Chinese knocked off too?

    The 5W charger in 2019 (this is the 2019 phone remember) is frankly an insult. As for 'logic', there is none to be had for the user after paying over 800€ for the 'cheapest' new model but I don't expect you to share my view.
    It doesn’t have a notch BECAUSE IT HAS A CHIN. Dur dur... And yes, it’s obviously a chinese knockoff of an iphone.

    So good of you to ignore the shameless and obvious ripoffs as they are counter to your narrative. But we know your goose is cooked when even the Verge of all places does a story on why the chinese ripoff Apple.

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/17/17988564/chinese-phone-software-android-iphone-copy-ui
    edited November 2018
  • Reply 114 of 117
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 7,891member
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    clarker99 said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    We are basically 'post iPhone' now (in company-wide terms) and after three years of flat growth, unit numbers possibly don't look too good going forward (in growth terms). 

    Apple has never had the kind of high-end premiun competition (at least on the current scale) as it has now and is (and has been) trying to open new revenue streams.

    Services is growing, (TV) content creation will probably go live next year and the car project will follow. Plus all the other areas.

    However, flat unit sales are not nice and any dip in handset sales would just make things worse from a stock perspective because iPhone sales have been the most important indicator for years. Giving a running commentary on unit sales (each earnings  call) and reporting things staying the same - or possibly getting worse is something to be avoided. 

    While iPhone X may have been the 'most popular' model this year, and in spite of all the joy with Q1 numbers, the reality is that sales are still more or less flat, again. Little has changed.

    We know people are being asked to pay more for the newer phones and at some point they won't want to (or won't be able to) and that point might be close. This year's refresh was not really that spectacular. To the point that many considered the Apple Watch to be the real star of the 2018 refresh.

    In a 'post iPhone' Apple world, it shouldn't be surprising to see a decision like this. Just look at the guidance for the next quarter. There will be another Q1 blow out but the revenue mix will be far more spread out, and as the year passes, iPhone unit sales might show signs of fatigue.

    By not giving unit sales, Apple gets some breathing space until the next refresh, which will need to be stronger than this year, but won't carry same importance as in previous years because other areas will have been strengthened by then and the content library will probably be rolling out.

    iPhone sales could take off of course, but I think Apple really doesn't expect that to happen and they are prefering to err on the side of caution.

    Apple obviously (and understandably) wants to play the decision down and say unit sales are less relevant. In a post iPhone Apple world it is true, but those numbers are still very much relevant nonetheless.
    While some of what you say is certainly the case (yes, Apple is obviously diversifying revenue streams) your take on it seems to suggest you believe that iPhone sales are bound to flatten out and Apple is reacting to
    that by attempting to charge higher prices.  But Apple is a huge data mining operation.  The company certainly has all the sales and marketing data it needs to dial the iPhone unit sales number where they want it, growing unit sales 20% year over year if they so wish; it would simply be a matter of producing iPhone models targeting certain market demographics at appropriate prices.  Because there’s demand all up and down the market, even here in the Philippines where most can’t afford one but nevertheless aspire to get their hands on one.  If Apple truly wanted to play the unit sales game against all comers, do you really think they couldn’t succeed?  

    Apple is in a different game.  The company has looked at price elasticity and decided it can maintain current unit numbers, even modestly growing them, while netting significantly more in ASP, by continuing up market away from those who have been attempting to follow Apple into the premium space.  That’s why you’re seeing A-series performance numbers that are running away from the competition, Face ID coming to the iPad, and other unmatched technology advances.  Did you even read Above Avalon’s recent article (under his free Weekly Articles section) regarding the grey market for iPhones and what that means?  I guess not.  You spout a lot about Apple’s supposed competition, championing one vendor in particular, but you show a remarkable, perhaps deliberately obtuse, lack of insight into the smartphone business.  

    But hey, thanks for playing.  
    I think you are at odds with yourself.

    Apple has never seen competition on its high end turf like it has now. To the point that this year's innovation in the handset market didn't come from Apple. If you want bleeding edge technology (lots do) you wouldn't buy this year's iPhone. That has been the reality of 2018. And you know that Apple has been sheltered from a large chunk of that competition on its home turf, which just happens to be the world's second largest smartphone market.

    Oh. That 'one vendor'. People are asking why its latest phone hasn't appeared on the D0X Mark listing yet. Rumours claim the results would be too far ahead of the pack as to be detrimental to itself. As the iPhone X Max didn't top the current board leader - which is already six months old - and the current leader is made by that 'one vendor', it is rumoured that the Mate 20 Pro won't get a listing until something from the competition tops the P20 Pro. You will counter that the listing is worthless and mostly serves for marketing but marketing is one of the cogs that moves this industry.

    It's not that Apple can't play the 'unit sales game and succeed'. It can, but at what price (no pun intended)?

    It's been flat on unit sales for three years now - in spite of attempts to open up its spread (both on models and pricing). So that is flat sales in spite of those actions. Care to imagine how things would have looked if they hadn't taken that action?

    Given the situation, one of the possible options is to compete with itself and produce new phones (not old phones) for the mid tier and try to differentiate them enough to shore up premium sales. It hasn't chosen that option - yet.

    But 2019 is served and the iPhones - for all their marketing - haven't really turned heads and now won't do so until the end of 2019. That is a lot of quarters and Samsung  (S10) is going to hit hard as soon as the gates open on  the New Year. Huawei (P30 Pro) will follow soon after and right around Apple the time Apple has its 2019 refresh, both vendors will launch the latest Note and Mates. 

    So Apple has an expensive phone (made more expensive by sales tax and currency realities in certain regions) that doesn't really offer the bells and whistles that the price warrants.

    It looks like Apple doesn't plan for larger unit shipments and may in fact be preparing for some contraction.

    Apple has the ultimate card to know the state of its current market: Apple ID.

    It knows absolutely everything it needs to know about the state of play. Active accounts and if users are bringing in extra revenues, how many devices are linked to each account, which devices go off radar, the family sphere of users.

    I have speculated in the past that the so called 'super cycle' might have actually happened, but simply didn't register in terms of far higher unit sales. Apple always knew exactly what happened of course and will never make that data public.

    Given the possible state of play, this decision not to provide unit sales makes sense for the company. Analysts will continue to speculate, it's their job after all, and the stock will twitch on occasion but that is no different to today and has no bearing on anything.

    In a post iPhone Apple world, the focus will move to other areas, iPhone included of course, but with less weight. Just like the Mac today. Important but not the be all and end all.

    More bullshit from the Huawei troll/shill.

    Newsflash: There have been countless "iPhone killers" over the last 7-8 years that were supposed to knock the iPhone off its perch at the high end. To date, not one of them has succeeded. The CLOSEST anyone got was the Galaxy S4 back in 2014, which managed to sell 10 million units in its first month. Since then it's all been downhill and nobody has ever come close since. What makes you think (besides being delusional) that Huawei is going to steal sales from Apple where everyone else has failed? Nobody cross shops the superior iPhone to the inferior Huawei flagships.

    So you come up with ridiculous theories (poor Huawei isn't allowed to sell in the US) to imply that if they playing field were equal that Huawei would magically outsell the iPhone. The reason Huawei won't outsell the iPhone is because they are inferior devices. Plain and simple.

    No bleeding edge technology from Apple? Only to someone who doesn't understand technology. Your precious Kirin 980 didn't turn out to be nearly as good as you predicted, so you had to try and redefine what makes a processor advanced (like thinking including a cellular modem in the chip somehow makes it better).
    Indeed. For a hilarious look at his preferred knockoff brand’s “innovation”, check this out:


    ...they even stole the pairing screen! Copying Apple is all these chinese knockoffs know to do. That their ripoff is called “Honor” is a hoot. 
    Avon B7 is a funny guy. 

    Always talking about premium Chinese smartphones, especially Huawei's P20 products, which he will never purchase due to price. just like most of the Android OS buyers. It's a halo device, not destined for even moderate sales, but look at those specs!

    Funny thing.

    Avon B7 isn't even close to being correct about Apple services.

    https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/9/2/the-apple-services-myth

    Yeah, the author of that stated just a few days ago that he wouldn't change a thing in that article from two years ago

    From the link;

    "The Actual Story

    Apple's original services narrative has been taken completely out of context. Management's goal in pointing out service revenue was to emphasize the value found within the iOS ecosystem, not to explain an upcoming pivot away from hardware.

    Here's Tim Cook on Apple's 1Q16 earnings call explaining Apple's services business: 

    "[A] growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. Because our customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content, and other services. 

    They also are very likely to buy other Apple products or replace the one they own. And because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will also love and use it often. 

    So, as a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has recently reached a major milestone, crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. This is an unbelievable asset for us. Because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues."

    Cook is making the case that Apple's service business is seeing strong growth because of the growth in the install base driven by hardware sales. Nowhere did Cook discuss a new Apple directive aimed at increasing services revenue. Specifically, Cook is taking the information found in Exhibit 1 and flipping it on its head."

    Avon B7 has no concept of the value of an ecosystem and a growing installed base, hence why his argument of choice always comes down to device hardware spec comparisons and price.

    For the record, EMUI sucks sweaty balls, and I can't imagine any iPhone user putting up with it.
    You realise that when someone on the outside says 'I wouldn't change a word in what I wrote two years ago', it is synonymous of a simple opinion?

    I have my opinion too and it hasn't changed either. And?

    You need to understand what is happening. Apple smartphone unit sales have stalled. Flat for over three years. That is the Apple smartphone reality - sans distortion field.

    I definitely didn't even whisper the idea of a 'pivot away from hardware'. I don't know if anyone did.

    Tim Cook speaks of growing the installed base through hand me downs etc because there is simply not much to speak of in real unit terms. He would be overjoyed if there was real unit growth - but there isn't.

    And install base is only part of the story anyway. What is of far more importance is how many unique and active Apple IDs there are. Note how Tim Cook, in spite of having those numbers too, doesn't provide them!

    You are obsessed with ASP (which has no value whatsoever for consumers) and ecosystem.

    One of the things that you also need to understand is that ecosystems are not the holy grail for users. They are simply platforms.

    As for halo effects, you are wrong there too.

    Halo effects exist on many levels. One of them is brand recognition. Huawei announced today that pre orders for the Mate 20 Pro were are 40% higher than for the P20 Pro. That is the halo effect of the P20 Pro.

    Huawei has also held onto the number two spot in smartphone sales for Q3. Every single newspiece with that information also adds that Apple has dropped. That is also halo effect.

    All of this propagates down the range. I don't need a P20 Pro. My Honor 10 is amazing. When I bought it it had the latest HiSilicon SoC, excellent build quality and just months after the stunning night mode rolled out on the P20 Pro, it was pushed out to the Honor 10 too. More halo effect.

    Honor just launched the Magic 2 and it already has the Kirin 980!

    What don't you like about EMUI? It definitely doesn't suck sweaty balls. LOL.


    Lol... Android vendors biggest competition are other Android vendors. Huawei  is not gonna do anything to take on Apple. Huawei may eat into Samsung sales but will not impact Apple at all. The p20 and Mate are just another Android vessel. 

    Next year a new Android vendor will be the flavour of the week. Samsung, Xaomi and Hauwei offer nothing in terms of ecosystem and sticky-ness. They are reliant on unit sales to make money. Apple is not reliant on unit sales to the same degree. The iOS ecosystem is a money making machine. What is Huawei offering? A spec arms race? Apple copy cat hardware? LG, HTC and Motorola say hi. 
    Apple is a money making machine that's for sure but that grates on many users (myself included) as it means nothing to consumers and doesn't even get them more bang for buck. Paying more to make a company even richer and see most of the money sit offshore (tax free!) for literally YEARS and not improve hardware (take a long hard look at your 5W charger and refresh your memory on how much Apple has horded away) does nothing for the consumer.

    Huawei is not copy catting Apple hardware.
    Many designs are used by many manufacturers - Apple included.

    In fact Huawei has a lot of hardware that isn't even available on any iPhone!

    So while Huawei (lower ASP, less cash horded, more direct competition etc) was able to put out the P20 Pro and completely overshadow the iPhone X for less money 
    God you’re full of shit. Claiming Apple isn’t improving its hardware because they stick to a 5W charger defiles any concept of logic. Apple often uses a tick-dock dev cycle on its phones and the X was the tick, the XS the tock. If inventing face ID wasn’t innovative I don’t know what is.  

    And clinging to the false narrative that your chinese knockoffs aren’t copying Apple left & right is self-delusion. 



    You know, there are only limited options available when designing the shape of a phone and its key elements. Huawei releases a boatload of phones every year catering to different markets and price bands. Do a search for dual camera phones (Huawei was there before Apple, let's not forget). You will see a boatload of designs but you will eventually run out of options and end up repeating. Horizontal, Vertical, grouped (or not), bump (or not), left, right or centre aligned etc. Now, Huawei has chosen an upper centred 'square' look with a bump. It looks cool, amazing in person.

    This design was sent to Huawei direct from Jony Ive's office by a chip the size of a grain of rice sitting on his unreleased 5mm thick, triangular, Mac Pro!

    BTW, that's one nice notchless screen you put there.
    Is that an Apple design that the Chinese knocked off too?

    The 5W charger in 2019 (this is the 2019 phone remember) is frankly an insult. As for 'logic', there is none to be had for the user after paying over 800€ for the 'cheapest' new model but I don't expect you to share my view.
    It doesn’t have a notch BECAUSE IT HAS A CHIN. Dur dur... And yes, it’s obviously a chinese knockoff of an iphone.

    So good of you to ignore the shameless and obvious ripoffs as they are counter to your narrative. But we know your goose is cooked when even the Verge of all places does a story on why the chinese ripoff Apple.

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/17/17988564/chinese-phone-software-android-iphone-copy-ui
    It's a sub brand and I said notchless. The full screen look is what counts. The lack of a notch and having options. It doesn't matter if it has a tiny (so small that it can't even house a sensor or camera array) chin - if the notch is gone. The lack of a notch will appeal to many and, tiny chin included LOL, I'd wager that, on screen alone, many people prefer the Honor phone to any notched phone. That's why it exists, of course!

    And the Mate 20 Pro has even thinner bezels than an iPhone XS Max/XR- and a smaller notch:

    https://pocketnow.com/huawei-iphone-xr-bezels

    Of course, if chins are your thing, look no further than iPhone 8 which, ironically, has been taken to the cleaners by Apple Marketing itself. Incredible! Surely you can't begrudge Huawei for doing the same but with Apple's new phones even if Huawei's have a minimal chin themselves. It's about options.

    As for your link. Did you actually read it?

    In an article dedicated to the subject, it mentions a few app icons when it comes to Huawei and iOS. I use both systems and they are quite different on the whole. On top of that it says this about the Huawei camera app:

    "only Huawei has succeeded in creating a genuinely new camera app design, which happens to be very good."

    Hmmmn!

    And BTW, from the little I've seen of it, Apple's 'new' aperture mode interface looks very similar to one of EMUI's old takes on the function. Remember that Huawei had that function three years ago. I'm glad it wasn't the other way around or you'd be claiming that as a knock off too. QR reader in the camera app? Another very old EMUI feature. In fact EMUI has had a full 'pro' mode for the camera app for years now.

    As for screens, it looks like some LG sourced parts may be affected. Actually this isn't the first time either. If you have this issue, return the phone.
    edited November 2018
  • Reply 115 of 117
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,439member
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    clarker99 said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    We are basically 'post iPhone' now (in company-wide terms) and after three years of flat growth, unit numbers possibly don't look too good going forward (in growth terms). 

    Apple has never had the kind of high-end premiun competition (at least on the current scale) as it has now and is (and has been) trying to open new revenue streams.

    Services is growing, (TV) content creation will probably go live next year and the car project will follow. Plus all the other areas.

    However, flat unit sales are not nice and any dip in handset sales would just make things worse from a stock perspective because iPhone sales have been the most important indicator for years. Giving a running commentary on unit sales (each earnings  call) and reporting things staying the same - or possibly getting worse is something to be avoided. 

    While iPhone X may have been the 'most popular' model this year, and in spite of all the joy with Q1 numbers, the reality is that sales are still more or less flat, again. Little has changed.

    We know people are being asked to pay more for the newer phones and at some point they won't want to (or won't be able to) and that point might be close. This year's refresh was not really that spectacular. To the point that many considered the Apple Watch to be the real star of the 2018 refresh.

    In a 'post iPhone' Apple world, it shouldn't be surprising to see a decision like this. Just look at the guidance for the next quarter. There will be another Q1 blow out but the revenue mix will be far more spread out, and as the year passes, iPhone unit sales might show signs of fatigue.

    By not giving unit sales, Apple gets some breathing space until the next refresh, which will need to be stronger than this year, but won't carry same importance as in previous years because other areas will have been strengthened by then and the content library will probably be rolling out.

    iPhone sales could take off of course, but I think Apple really doesn't expect that to happen and they are prefering to err on the side of caution.

    Apple obviously (and understandably) wants to play the decision down and say unit sales are less relevant. In a post iPhone Apple world it is true, but those numbers are still very much relevant nonetheless.
    While some of what you say is certainly the case (yes, Apple is obviously diversifying revenue streams) your take on it seems to suggest you believe that iPhone sales are bound to flatten out and Apple is reacting to
    that by attempting to charge higher prices.  But Apple is a huge data mining operation.  The company certainly has all the sales and marketing data it needs to dial the iPhone unit sales number where they want it, growing unit sales 20% year over year if they so wish; it would simply be a matter of producing iPhone models targeting certain market demographics at appropriate prices.  Because there’s demand all up and down the market, even here in the Philippines where most can’t afford one but nevertheless aspire to get their hands on one.  If Apple truly wanted to play the unit sales game against all comers, do you really think they couldn’t succeed?  

    Apple is in a different game.  The company has looked at price elasticity and decided it can maintain current unit numbers, even modestly growing them, while netting significantly more in ASP, by continuing up market away from those who have been attempting to follow Apple into the premium space.  That’s why you’re seeing A-series performance numbers that are running away from the competition, Face ID coming to the iPad, and other unmatched technology advances.  Did you even read Above Avalon’s recent article (under his free Weekly Articles section) regarding the grey market for iPhones and what that means?  I guess not.  You spout a lot about Apple’s supposed competition, championing one vendor in particular, but you show a remarkable, perhaps deliberately obtuse, lack of insight into the smartphone business.  

    But hey, thanks for playing.  
    I think you are at odds with yourself.

    Apple has never seen competition on its high end turf like it has now. To the point that this year's innovation in the handset market didn't come from Apple. If you want bleeding edge technology (lots do) you wouldn't buy this year's iPhone. That has been the reality of 2018. And you know that Apple has been sheltered from a large chunk of that competition on its home turf, which just happens to be the world's second largest smartphone market.

    Oh. That 'one vendor'. People are asking why its latest phone hasn't appeared on the D0X Mark listing yet. Rumours claim the results would be too far ahead of the pack as to be detrimental to itself. As the iPhone X Max didn't top the current board leader - which is already six months old - and the current leader is made by that 'one vendor', it is rumoured that the Mate 20 Pro won't get a listing until something from the competition tops the P20 Pro. You will counter that the listing is worthless and mostly serves for marketing but marketing is one of the cogs that moves this industry.

    It's not that Apple can't play the 'unit sales game and succeed'. It can, but at what price (no pun intended)?

    It's been flat on unit sales for three years now - in spite of attempts to open up its spread (both on models and pricing). So that is flat sales in spite of those actions. Care to imagine how things would have looked if they hadn't taken that action?

    Given the situation, one of the possible options is to compete with itself and produce new phones (not old phones) for the mid tier and try to differentiate them enough to shore up premium sales. It hasn't chosen that option - yet.

    But 2019 is served and the iPhones - for all their marketing - haven't really turned heads and now won't do so until the end of 2019. That is a lot of quarters and Samsung  (S10) is going to hit hard as soon as the gates open on  the New Year. Huawei (P30 Pro) will follow soon after and right around Apple the time Apple has its 2019 refresh, both vendors will launch the latest Note and Mates. 

    So Apple has an expensive phone (made more expensive by sales tax and currency realities in certain regions) that doesn't really offer the bells and whistles that the price warrants.

    It looks like Apple doesn't plan for larger unit shipments and may in fact be preparing for some contraction.

    Apple has the ultimate card to know the state of its current market: Apple ID.

    It knows absolutely everything it needs to know about the state of play. Active accounts and if users are bringing in extra revenues, how many devices are linked to each account, which devices go off radar, the family sphere of users.

    I have speculated in the past that the so called 'super cycle' might have actually happened, but simply didn't register in terms of far higher unit sales. Apple always knew exactly what happened of course and will never make that data public.

    Given the possible state of play, this decision not to provide unit sales makes sense for the company. Analysts will continue to speculate, it's their job after all, and the stock will twitch on occasion but that is no different to today and has no bearing on anything.

    In a post iPhone Apple world, the focus will move to other areas, iPhone included of course, but with less weight. Just like the Mac today. Important but not the be all and end all.

    More bullshit from the Huawei troll/shill.

    Newsflash: There have been countless "iPhone killers" over the last 7-8 years that were supposed to knock the iPhone off its perch at the high end. To date, not one of them has succeeded. The CLOSEST anyone got was the Galaxy S4 back in 2014, which managed to sell 10 million units in its first month. Since then it's all been downhill and nobody has ever come close since. What makes you think (besides being delusional) that Huawei is going to steal sales from Apple where everyone else has failed? Nobody cross shops the superior iPhone to the inferior Huawei flagships.

    So you come up with ridiculous theories (poor Huawei isn't allowed to sell in the US) to imply that if they playing field were equal that Huawei would magically outsell the iPhone. The reason Huawei won't outsell the iPhone is because they are inferior devices. Plain and simple.

    No bleeding edge technology from Apple? Only to someone who doesn't understand technology. Your precious Kirin 980 didn't turn out to be nearly as good as you predicted, so you had to try and redefine what makes a processor advanced (like thinking including a cellular modem in the chip somehow makes it better).
    Indeed. For a hilarious look at his preferred knockoff brand’s “innovation”, check this out:


    ...they even stole the pairing screen! Copying Apple is all these chinese knockoffs know to do. That their ripoff is called “Honor” is a hoot. 
    Avon B7 is a funny guy. 

    Always talking about premium Chinese smartphones, especially Huawei's P20 products, which he will never purchase due to price. just like most of the Android OS buyers. It's a halo device, not destined for even moderate sales, but look at those specs!

    Funny thing.

    Avon B7 isn't even close to being correct about Apple services.

    https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/9/2/the-apple-services-myth

    Yeah, the author of that stated just a few days ago that he wouldn't change a thing in that article from two years ago

    From the link;

    "The Actual Story

    Apple's original services narrative has been taken completely out of context. Management's goal in pointing out service revenue was to emphasize the value found within the iOS ecosystem, not to explain an upcoming pivot away from hardware.

    Here's Tim Cook on Apple's 1Q16 earnings call explaining Apple's services business: 

    "[A] growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. Because our customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content, and other services. 

    They also are very likely to buy other Apple products or replace the one they own. And because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will also love and use it often. 

    So, as a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has recently reached a major milestone, crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. This is an unbelievable asset for us. Because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues."

    Cook is making the case that Apple's service business is seeing strong growth because of the growth in the install base driven by hardware sales. Nowhere did Cook discuss a new Apple directive aimed at increasing services revenue. Specifically, Cook is taking the information found in Exhibit 1 and flipping it on its head."

    Avon B7 has no concept of the value of an ecosystem and a growing installed base, hence why his argument of choice always comes down to device hardware spec comparisons and price.

    For the record, EMUI sucks sweaty balls, and I can't imagine any iPhone user putting up with it.
    You realise that when someone on the outside says 'I wouldn't change a word in what I wrote two years ago', it is synonymous of a simple opinion?

    I have my opinion too and it hasn't changed either. And?

    You need to understand what is happening. Apple smartphone unit sales have stalled. Flat for over three years. That is the Apple smartphone reality - sans distortion field.

    I definitely didn't even whisper the idea of a 'pivot away from hardware'. I don't know if anyone did.

    Tim Cook speaks of growing the installed base through hand me downs etc because there is simply not much to speak of in real unit terms. He would be overjoyed if there was real unit growth - but there isn't.

    And install base is only part of the story anyway. What is of far more importance is how many unique and active Apple IDs there are. Note how Tim Cook, in spite of having those numbers too, doesn't provide them!

    You are obsessed with ASP (which has no value whatsoever for consumers) and ecosystem.

    One of the things that you also need to understand is that ecosystems are not the holy grail for users. They are simply platforms.

    As for halo effects, you are wrong there too.

    Halo effects exist on many levels. One of them is brand recognition. Huawei announced today that pre orders for the Mate 20 Pro were are 40% higher than for the P20 Pro. That is the halo effect of the P20 Pro.

    Huawei has also held onto the number two spot in smartphone sales for Q3. Every single newspiece with that information also adds that Apple has dropped. That is also halo effect.

    All of this propagates down the range. I don't need a P20 Pro. My Honor 10 is amazing. When I bought it it had the latest HiSilicon SoC, excellent build quality and just months after the stunning night mode rolled out on the P20 Pro, it was pushed out to the Honor 10 too. More halo effect.

    Honor just launched the Magic 2 and it already has the Kirin 980!

    What don't you like about EMUI? It definitely doesn't suck sweaty balls. LOL.


    Lol... Android vendors biggest competition are other Android vendors. Huawei  is not gonna do anything to take on Apple. Huawei may eat into Samsung sales but will not impact Apple at all. The p20 and Mate are just another Android vessel. 

    Next year a new Android vendor will be the flavour of the week. Samsung, Xaomi and Hauwei offer nothing in terms of ecosystem and sticky-ness. They are reliant on unit sales to make money. Apple is not reliant on unit sales to the same degree. The iOS ecosystem is a money making machine. What is Huawei offering? A spec arms race? Apple copy cat hardware? LG, HTC and Motorola say hi. 
    Apple is a money making machine that's for sure but that grates on many users (myself included) as it means nothing to consumers and doesn't even get them more bang for buck. Paying more to make a company even richer and see most of the money sit offshore (tax free!) for literally YEARS and not improve hardware (take a long hard look at your 5W charger and refresh your memory on how much Apple has horded away) does nothing for the consumer.

    Huawei is not copy catting Apple hardware.
    Many designs are used by many manufacturers - Apple included.

    In fact Huawei has a lot of hardware that isn't even available on any iPhone!

    So while Huawei (lower ASP, less cash horded, more direct competition etc) was able to put out the P20 Pro and completely overshadow the iPhone X for less money 
    God you’re full of shit. Claiming Apple isn’t improving its hardware because they stick to a 5W charger defiles any concept of logic. Apple often uses a tick-dock dev cycle on its phones and the X was the tick, the XS the tock. If inventing face ID wasn’t innovative I don’t know what is.  

    And clinging to the false narrative that your chinese knockoffs aren’t copying Apple left & right is self-delusion. 



    You know, there are only limited options available when designing the shape of a phone and its key elements. Huawei releases a boatload of phones every year catering to different markets and price bands. Do a search for dual camera phones (Huawei was there before Apple, let's not forget). You will see a boatload of designs but you will eventually run out of options and end up repeating. Horizontal, Vertical, grouped (or not), bump (or not), left, right or centre aligned etc. Now, Huawei has chosen an upper centred 'square' look with a bump. It looks cool, amazing in person.

    This design was sent to Huawei direct from Jony Ive's office by a chip the size of a grain of rice sitting on his unreleased 5mm thick, triangular, Mac Pro!

    BTW, that's one nice notchless screen you put there.
    Is that an Apple design that the Chinese knocked off too?

    The 5W charger in 2019 (this is the 2019 phone remember) is frankly an insult. As for 'logic', there is none to be had for the user after paying over 800€ for the 'cheapest' new model but I don't expect you to share my view.
    It doesn’t have a notch BECAUSE IT HAS A CHIN. Dur dur... And yes, it’s obviously a chinese knockoff of an iphone.

    So good of you to ignore the shameless and obvious ripoffs as they are counter to your narrative. But we know your goose is cooked when even the Verge of all places does a story on why the chinese ripoff Apple.

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/17/17988564/chinese-phone-software-android-iphone-copy-ui
    It's a sub brand and I said notchless. The full screen look is what counts. The lack of a notch and having options. It doesn't matter if it has a tiny (so small that it can't even house a sensor or camera array) chin - if the notch is gone. The lack of a notch will appeal to many and, tiny chin included LOL, I'd wager that, on screen alone, many people prefer the Honor phone to any notched phone. That's why it exists, of course!

    And the Mate 20 Pro has even thinner bezels than an iPhone XS Max/XR- and a smaller notch:

    https://pocketnow.com/huawei-iphone-xr-bezels

    Of course, if chins are your thing, look no further than iPhone 8 which, ironically, has been taken to the cleaners by Apple Marketing itself. Incredible! Surely you can't begrudge Huawei for doing the same but with Apple's new phones even if Huawei's have a minimal chin themselves. It's about options.

    As for your link. Did you actually read it?

    In an article dedicated to the subject, it mentions a few app icons when it comes to Huawei and iOS. I use both systems and they are quite different on the whole. On top of that it says this about the Huawei camera app:

    "only Huawei has succeeded in creating a genuinely new camera app design, which happens to be very good."

    Hmmmn!

    And BTW, from the little I've seen of it, Apple's 'new' aperture mode interface looks very similar to one of EMUI's old takes on the function. Remember that Huawei had that function three years ago. I'm glad it wasn't the other way around or you'd be claiming that as a knock off too. QR reader in the camera app? Another very old EMUI feature. In fact EMUI has had a full 'pro' mode for the camera app for years now.

    As for screens, it looks like some LG sourced parts may be affected. Actually this isn't the first time either. If you have this issue, return the phone.
    I'm all for Huawei making fun of the iPhone 8, noting of course, that all of the newly released iPhones have the notch and no chin. Obviously, Huawei's engineers couldn't figure out how to squeeze the USB Type C connector in without the chin. Samsung says "hey!".

    "I use both systems and they are quite different on the whole"

    They probably are quite different, but you should also note that as you have never upgraded you wife's iPhone 6 from iOS 10, you aren't really being all that honest either, as you haven't any experience with iOS 12. You keep rationalizing about why you won't upgrade; afraid your wife might want another iPhone?

    The reviews that I have read of EMUI by Android OS users who review smartphones is that it is a comparable weakness against other notable Android OS devices. Obviously you would disagree with that. 

    Choices.

    As for Apple copying the aperture function, it should be noted that Huawei copied Apple's photo app early on; well, practically all of Android OS devices for that matter.

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/17/17988564/chinese-phone-software-android-iphone-copy-ui

    "
    As for the camera apps, it’s really incredible how similar the vast majority are — both to each other and to Apple. Judging by the accuracy and specificity of the rip-offs, the camera app from iOS 7 has a serious claim to being one of the most influential software designs of the past decade. Just look at the picture above. Xiaomi wins an extremely low number of points for putting the modes in a lowercase blue font. But otherwise, only Huawei has succeeded in creating a genuinely new camera app design, which happens to be very good. I consider it penance for the company’s egregious and barely functional rip-off of the iOS share sheet."


    Here's one opinion on Apple's Photo App:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/google-photos-vs-apple-photos-icloud-2018-7#google-photos-on-the-other-hand-is-rather-limited-in-its-sharing-features-8

    THE VERDICT: Apple's sleek and powerful software is the clear winner for both casual and advanced photographers.


    It's even better if you are in Apple's ecosystem, which you are, sadly, not.




    edited November 2018
  • Reply 116 of 117
    avon b7avon b7 Posts: 7,891member
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    clarker99 said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    We are basically 'post iPhone' now (in company-wide terms) and after three years of flat growth, unit numbers possibly don't look too good going forward (in growth terms). 

    Apple has never had the kind of high-end premiun competition (at least on the current scale) as it has now and is (and has been) trying to open new revenue streams.

    Services is growing, (TV) content creation will probably go live next year and the car project will follow. Plus all the other areas.

    However, flat unit sales are not nice and any dip in handset sales would just make things worse from a stock perspective because iPhone sales have been the most important indicator for years. Giving a running commentary on unit sales (each earnings  call) and reporting things staying the same - or possibly getting worse is something to be avoided. 

    While iPhone X may have been the 'most popular' model this year, and in spite of all the joy with Q1 numbers, the reality is that sales are still more or less flat, again. Little has changed.

    We know people are being asked to pay more for the newer phones and at some point they won't want to (or won't be able to) and that point might be close. This year's refresh was not really that spectacular. To the point that many considered the Apple Watch to be the real star of the 2018 refresh.

    In a 'post iPhone' Apple world, it shouldn't be surprising to see a decision like this. Just look at the guidance for the next quarter. There will be another Q1 blow out but the revenue mix will be far more spread out, and as the year passes, iPhone unit sales might show signs of fatigue.

    By not giving unit sales, Apple gets some breathing space until the next refresh, which will need to be stronger than this year, but won't carry same importance as in previous years because other areas will have been strengthened by then and the content library will probably be rolling out.

    iPhone sales could take off of course, but I think Apple really doesn't expect that to happen and they are prefering to err on the side of caution.

    Apple obviously (and understandably) wants to play the decision down and say unit sales are less relevant. In a post iPhone Apple world it is true, but those numbers are still very much relevant nonetheless.
    While some of what you say is certainly the case (yes, Apple is obviously diversifying revenue streams) your take on it seems to suggest you believe that iPhone sales are bound to flatten out and Apple is reacting to
    that by attempting to charge higher prices.  But Apple is a huge data mining operation.  The company certainly has all the sales and marketing data it needs to dial the iPhone unit sales number where they want it, growing unit sales 20% year over year if they so wish; it would simply be a matter of producing iPhone models targeting certain market demographics at appropriate prices.  Because there’s demand all up and down the market, even here in the Philippines where most can’t afford one but nevertheless aspire to get their hands on one.  If Apple truly wanted to play the unit sales game against all comers, do you really think they couldn’t succeed?  

    Apple is in a different game.  The company has looked at price elasticity and decided it can maintain current unit numbers, even modestly growing them, while netting significantly more in ASP, by continuing up market away from those who have been attempting to follow Apple into the premium space.  That’s why you’re seeing A-series performance numbers that are running away from the competition, Face ID coming to the iPad, and other unmatched technology advances.  Did you even read Above Avalon’s recent article (under his free Weekly Articles section) regarding the grey market for iPhones and what that means?  I guess not.  You spout a lot about Apple’s supposed competition, championing one vendor in particular, but you show a remarkable, perhaps deliberately obtuse, lack of insight into the smartphone business.  

    But hey, thanks for playing.  
    I think you are at odds with yourself.

    Apple has never seen competition on its high end turf like it has now. To the point that this year's innovation in the handset market didn't come from Apple. If you want bleeding edge technology (lots do) you wouldn't buy this year's iPhone. That has been the reality of 2018. And you know that Apple has been sheltered from a large chunk of that competition on its home turf, which just happens to be the world's second largest smartphone market.

    Oh. That 'one vendor'. People are asking why its latest phone hasn't appeared on the D0X Mark listing yet. Rumours claim the results would be too far ahead of the pack as to be detrimental to itself. As the iPhone X Max didn't top the current board leader - which is already six months old - and the current leader is made by that 'one vendor', it is rumoured that the Mate 20 Pro won't get a listing until something from the competition tops the P20 Pro. You will counter that the listing is worthless and mostly serves for marketing but marketing is one of the cogs that moves this industry.

    It's not that Apple can't play the 'unit sales game and succeed'. It can, but at what price (no pun intended)?

    It's been flat on unit sales for three years now - in spite of attempts to open up its spread (both on models and pricing). So that is flat sales in spite of those actions. Care to imagine how things would have looked if they hadn't taken that action?

    Given the situation, one of the possible options is to compete with itself and produce new phones (not old phones) for the mid tier and try to differentiate them enough to shore up premium sales. It hasn't chosen that option - yet.

    But 2019 is served and the iPhones - for all their marketing - haven't really turned heads and now won't do so until the end of 2019. That is a lot of quarters and Samsung  (S10) is going to hit hard as soon as the gates open on  the New Year. Huawei (P30 Pro) will follow soon after and right around Apple the time Apple has its 2019 refresh, both vendors will launch the latest Note and Mates. 

    So Apple has an expensive phone (made more expensive by sales tax and currency realities in certain regions) that doesn't really offer the bells and whistles that the price warrants.

    It looks like Apple doesn't plan for larger unit shipments and may in fact be preparing for some contraction.

    Apple has the ultimate card to know the state of its current market: Apple ID.

    It knows absolutely everything it needs to know about the state of play. Active accounts and if users are bringing in extra revenues, how many devices are linked to each account, which devices go off radar, the family sphere of users.

    I have speculated in the past that the so called 'super cycle' might have actually happened, but simply didn't register in terms of far higher unit sales. Apple always knew exactly what happened of course and will never make that data public.

    Given the possible state of play, this decision not to provide unit sales makes sense for the company. Analysts will continue to speculate, it's their job after all, and the stock will twitch on occasion but that is no different to today and has no bearing on anything.

    In a post iPhone Apple world, the focus will move to other areas, iPhone included of course, but with less weight. Just like the Mac today. Important but not the be all and end all.

    More bullshit from the Huawei troll/shill.

    Newsflash: There have been countless "iPhone killers" over the last 7-8 years that were supposed to knock the iPhone off its perch at the high end. To date, not one of them has succeeded. The CLOSEST anyone got was the Galaxy S4 back in 2014, which managed to sell 10 million units in its first month. Since then it's all been downhill and nobody has ever come close since. What makes you think (besides being delusional) that Huawei is going to steal sales from Apple where everyone else has failed? Nobody cross shops the superior iPhone to the inferior Huawei flagships.

    So you come up with ridiculous theories (poor Huawei isn't allowed to sell in the US) to imply that if they playing field were equal that Huawei would magically outsell the iPhone. The reason Huawei won't outsell the iPhone is because they are inferior devices. Plain and simple.

    No bleeding edge technology from Apple? Only to someone who doesn't understand technology. Your precious Kirin 980 didn't turn out to be nearly as good as you predicted, so you had to try and redefine what makes a processor advanced (like thinking including a cellular modem in the chip somehow makes it better).
    Indeed. For a hilarious look at his preferred knockoff brand’s “innovation”, check this out:


    ...they even stole the pairing screen! Copying Apple is all these chinese knockoffs know to do. That their ripoff is called “Honor” is a hoot. 
    Avon B7 is a funny guy. 

    Always talking about premium Chinese smartphones, especially Huawei's P20 products, which he will never purchase due to price. just like most of the Android OS buyers. It's a halo device, not destined for even moderate sales, but look at those specs!

    Funny thing.

    Avon B7 isn't even close to being correct about Apple services.

    https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/9/2/the-apple-services-myth

    Yeah, the author of that stated just a few days ago that he wouldn't change a thing in that article from two years ago

    From the link;

    "The Actual Story

    Apple's original services narrative has been taken completely out of context. Management's goal in pointing out service revenue was to emphasize the value found within the iOS ecosystem, not to explain an upcoming pivot away from hardware.

    Here's Tim Cook on Apple's 1Q16 earnings call explaining Apple's services business: 

    "[A] growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. Because our customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content, and other services. 

    They also are very likely to buy other Apple products or replace the one they own. And because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will also love and use it often. 

    So, as a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has recently reached a major milestone, crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. This is an unbelievable asset for us. Because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues."

    Cook is making the case that Apple's service business is seeing strong growth because of the growth in the install base driven by hardware sales. Nowhere did Cook discuss a new Apple directive aimed at increasing services revenue. Specifically, Cook is taking the information found in Exhibit 1 and flipping it on its head."

    Avon B7 has no concept of the value of an ecosystem and a growing installed base, hence why his argument of choice always comes down to device hardware spec comparisons and price.

    For the record, EMUI sucks sweaty balls, and I can't imagine any iPhone user putting up with it.
    You realise that when someone on the outside says 'I wouldn't change a word in what I wrote two years ago', it is synonymous of a simple opinion?

    I have my opinion too and it hasn't changed either. And?

    You need to understand what is happening. Apple smartphone unit sales have stalled. Flat for over three years. That is the Apple smartphone reality - sans distortion field.

    I definitely didn't even whisper the idea of a 'pivot away from hardware'. I don't know if anyone did.

    Tim Cook speaks of growing the installed base through hand me downs etc because there is simply not much to speak of in real unit terms. He would be overjoyed if there was real unit growth - but there isn't.

    And install base is only part of the story anyway. What is of far more importance is how many unique and active Apple IDs there are. Note how Tim Cook, in spite of having those numbers too, doesn't provide them!

    You are obsessed with ASP (which has no value whatsoever for consumers) and ecosystem.

    One of the things that you also need to understand is that ecosystems are not the holy grail for users. They are simply platforms.

    As for halo effects, you are wrong there too.

    Halo effects exist on many levels. One of them is brand recognition. Huawei announced today that pre orders for the Mate 20 Pro were are 40% higher than for the P20 Pro. That is the halo effect of the P20 Pro.

    Huawei has also held onto the number two spot in smartphone sales for Q3. Every single newspiece with that information also adds that Apple has dropped. That is also halo effect.

    All of this propagates down the range. I don't need a P20 Pro. My Honor 10 is amazing. When I bought it it had the latest HiSilicon SoC, excellent build quality and just months after the stunning night mode rolled out on the P20 Pro, it was pushed out to the Honor 10 too. More halo effect.

    Honor just launched the Magic 2 and it already has the Kirin 980!

    What don't you like about EMUI? It definitely doesn't suck sweaty balls. LOL.


    Lol... Android vendors biggest competition are other Android vendors. Huawei  is not gonna do anything to take on Apple. Huawei may eat into Samsung sales but will not impact Apple at all. The p20 and Mate are just another Android vessel. 

    Next year a new Android vendor will be the flavour of the week. Samsung, Xaomi and Hauwei offer nothing in terms of ecosystem and sticky-ness. They are reliant on unit sales to make money. Apple is not reliant on unit sales to the same degree. The iOS ecosystem is a money making machine. What is Huawei offering? A spec arms race? Apple copy cat hardware? LG, HTC and Motorola say hi. 
    Apple is a money making machine that's for sure but that grates on many users (myself included) as it means nothing to consumers and doesn't even get them more bang for buck. Paying more to make a company even richer and see most of the money sit offshore (tax free!) for literally YEARS and not improve hardware (take a long hard look at your 5W charger and refresh your memory on how much Apple has horded away) does nothing for the consumer.

    Huawei is not copy catting Apple hardware.
    Many designs are used by many manufacturers - Apple included.

    In fact Huawei has a lot of hardware that isn't even available on any iPhone!

    So while Huawei (lower ASP, less cash horded, more direct competition etc) was able to put out the P20 Pro and completely overshadow the iPhone X for less money 
    God you’re full of shit. Claiming Apple isn’t improving its hardware because they stick to a 5W charger defiles any concept of logic. Apple often uses a tick-dock dev cycle on its phones and the X was the tick, the XS the tock. If inventing face ID wasn’t innovative I don’t know what is.  

    And clinging to the false narrative that your chinese knockoffs aren’t copying Apple left & right is self-delusion. 



    You know, there are only limited options available when designing the shape of a phone and its key elements. Huawei releases a boatload of phones every year catering to different markets and price bands. Do a search for dual camera phones (Huawei was there before Apple, let's not forget). You will see a boatload of designs but you will eventually run out of options and end up repeating. Horizontal, Vertical, grouped (or not), bump (or not), left, right or centre aligned etc. Now, Huawei has chosen an upper centred 'square' look with a bump. It looks cool, amazing in person.

    This design was sent to Huawei direct from Jony Ive's office by a chip the size of a grain of rice sitting on his unreleased 5mm thick, triangular, Mac Pro!

    BTW, that's one nice notchless screen you put there.
    Is that an Apple design that the Chinese knocked off too?

    The 5W charger in 2019 (this is the 2019 phone remember) is frankly an insult. As for 'logic', there is none to be had for the user after paying over 800€ for the 'cheapest' new model but I don't expect you to share my view.
    It doesn’t have a notch BECAUSE IT HAS A CHIN. Dur dur... And yes, it’s obviously a chinese knockoff of an iphone.

    So good of you to ignore the shameless and obvious ripoffs as they are counter to your narrative. But we know your goose is cooked when even the Verge of all places does a story on why the chinese ripoff Apple.

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/17/17988564/chinese-phone-software-android-iphone-copy-ui
    It's a sub brand and I said notchless. The full screen look is what counts. The lack of a notch and having options. It doesn't matter if it has a tiny (so small that it can't even house a sensor or camera array) chin - if the notch is gone. The lack of a notch will appeal to many and, tiny chin included LOL, I'd wager that, on screen alone, many people prefer the Honor phone to any notched phone. That's why it exists, of course!

    And the Mate 20 Pro has even thinner bezels than an iPhone XS Max/XR- and a smaller notch:

    https://pocketnow.com/huawei-iphone-xr-bezels

    Of course, if chins are your thing, look no further than iPhone 8 which, ironically, has been taken to the cleaners by Apple Marketing itself. Incredible! Surely you can't begrudge Huawei for doing the same but with Apple's new phones even if Huawei's have a minimal chin themselves. It's about options.

    As for your link. Did you actually read it?

    In an article dedicated to the subject, it mentions a few app icons when it comes to Huawei and iOS. I use both systems and they are quite different on the whole. On top of that it says this about the Huawei camera app:

    "only Huawei has succeeded in creating a genuinely new camera app design, which happens to be very good."

    Hmmmn!

    And BTW, from the little I've seen of it, Apple's 'new' aperture mode interface looks very similar to one of EMUI's old takes on the function. Remember that Huawei had that function three years ago. I'm glad it wasn't the other way around or you'd be claiming that as a knock off too. QR reader in the camera app? Another very old EMUI feature. In fact EMUI has had a full 'pro' mode for the camera app for years now.

    As for screens, it looks like some LG sourced parts may be affected. Actually this isn't the first time either. If you have this issue, return the phone.
    I'm all for Huawei making fun of the iPhone 8, noting of course, that all of the newly released iPhones have the notch and no chin. Obviously, Huawei's engineers couldn't figure out how to squeeze the USB Type C connector in without the chin. Samsung says "hey!".

    "I use both systems and they are quite different on the whole"

    They probably are quite different, but you should also note that as you have never upgraded you wife's iPhone 6 from iOS 10, you aren't really being all that honest either, as you haven't any experience with iOS 12. You keep rationalizing about why you won't upgrade; afraid your wife might want another iPhone?

    The reviews that I have read of EMUI by Android OS users who review smartphones is that it is a comparable weakness against other notable Android OS devices. Obviously you would disagree with that. 

    Choices.

    As for Apple copying the aperture function, it should be noted that Huawei copied Apple's photo app early on; well, practically all of Android OS devices for that matter.

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/17/17988564/chinese-phone-software-android-iphone-copy-ui

    "As for the camera apps, it’s really incredible how similar the vast majority are — both to each other and to Apple. Judging by the accuracy and specificity of the rip-offs, the camera app from iOS 7 has a serious claim to being one of the most influential software designs of the past decade. Just look at the picture above. Xiaomi wins an extremely low number of points for putting the modes in a lowercase blue font. But otherwise, only Huawei has succeeded in creating a genuinely new camera app design, which happens to be very good. I consider it penance for the company’s egregious and barely functional rip-off of the iOS share sheet."


    Here's one opinion on Apple's Photo App:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/google-photos-vs-apple-photos-icloud-2018-7#google-photos-on-the-other-hand-is-rather-limited-in-its-sharing-features-8

    THE VERDICT: Apple's sleek and powerful software is the clear winner for both casual and advanced photographers.


    It's even better if you are in Apple's ecosystem, which you are, sadly, not.




    It's the second time I've posted this in this thread (this time from your quoted text and link):

    "only Huawei has succeeded in creating a genuinely new camera app design, which happens to be very good"

    Apple's camera app has always been a minimal affair. Huawei's has always been (since dual cameras arrived) a full on pro mode within the app. You can go as simple (one setting and let the AI take it from there) or as complex (pro mode) as you like.

    I don't really know why you are posting links to comparisons of photos apps. They are bundled apps/services.

    I used to tag photos and use smart search on OSX. A huge amount of time wasted because Apple later screwed up localising some strings in an OSX upgrade and broke every single smart search I had created. They never bothered to fix it!

    Later I switched to IPTC tagging using Graphic Converter (the best supported mac app ever) which also had some issues but when you reported them to the developer, he was lightning fast in fixing them (to the point of sending me private betas to test the fixes).

    Later, I not only found myself with less time to tag photos but less time to take them. I now have no need for any kind of specialised management tools and get by splendidly with the basics.

    Regards iOS, I have iOS 10 on the iPhone 6 and iOS 11 on the iPad Air 2. 

    No iOS12 yet but it has only been out for a few weeks.
    edited November 2018
  • Reply 117 of 117
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,439member
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    clarker99 said:
    avon b7 said:
    tmay said:
    avon b7 said:
    avon b7 said:
    We are basically 'post iPhone' now (in company-wide terms) and after three years of flat growth, unit numbers possibly don't look too good going forward (in growth terms). 

    Apple has never had the kind of high-end premiun competition (at least on the current scale) as it has now and is (and has been) trying to open new revenue streams.

    Services is growing, (TV) content creation will probably go live next year and the car project will follow. Plus all the other areas.

    However, flat unit sales are not nice and any dip in handset sales would just make things worse from a stock perspective because iPhone sales have been the most important indicator for years. Giving a running commentary on unit sales (each earnings  call) and reporting things staying the same - or possibly getting worse is something to be avoided. 

    While iPhone X may have been the 'most popular' model this year, and in spite of all the joy with Q1 numbers, the reality is that sales are still more or less flat, again. Little has changed.

    We know people are being asked to pay more for the newer phones and at some point they won't want to (or won't be able to) and that point might be close. This year's refresh was not really that spectacular. To the point that many considered the Apple Watch to be the real star of the 2018 refresh.

    In a 'post iPhone' Apple world, it shouldn't be surprising to see a decision like this. Just look at the guidance for the next quarter. There will be another Q1 blow out but the revenue mix will be far more spread out, and as the year passes, iPhone unit sales might show signs of fatigue.

    By not giving unit sales, Apple gets some breathing space until the next refresh, which will need to be stronger than this year, but won't carry same importance as in previous years because other areas will have been strengthened by then and the content library will probably be rolling out.

    iPhone sales could take off of course, but I think Apple really doesn't expect that to happen and they are prefering to err on the side of caution.

    Apple obviously (and understandably) wants to play the decision down and say unit sales are less relevant. In a post iPhone Apple world it is true, but those numbers are still very much relevant nonetheless.
    While some of what you say is certainly the case (yes, Apple is obviously diversifying revenue streams) your take on it seems to suggest you believe that iPhone sales are bound to flatten out and Apple is reacting to
    that by attempting to charge higher prices.  But Apple is a huge data mining operation.  The company certainly has all the sales and marketing data it needs to dial the iPhone unit sales number where they want it, growing unit sales 20% year over year if they so wish; it would simply be a matter of producing iPhone models targeting certain market demographics at appropriate prices.  Because there’s demand all up and down the market, even here in the Philippines where most can’t afford one but nevertheless aspire to get their hands on one.  If Apple truly wanted to play the unit sales game against all comers, do you really think they couldn’t succeed?  

    Apple is in a different game.  The company has looked at price elasticity and decided it can maintain current unit numbers, even modestly growing them, while netting significantly more in ASP, by continuing up market away from those who have been attempting to follow Apple into the premium space.  That’s why you’re seeing A-series performance numbers that are running away from the competition, Face ID coming to the iPad, and other unmatched technology advances.  Did you even read Above Avalon’s recent article (under his free Weekly Articles section) regarding the grey market for iPhones and what that means?  I guess not.  You spout a lot about Apple’s supposed competition, championing one vendor in particular, but you show a remarkable, perhaps deliberately obtuse, lack of insight into the smartphone business.  

    But hey, thanks for playing.  
    I think you are at odds with yourself.

    Apple has never seen competition on its high end turf like it has now. To the point that this year's innovation in the handset market didn't come from Apple. If you want bleeding edge technology (lots do) you wouldn't buy this year's iPhone. That has been the reality of 2018. And you know that Apple has been sheltered from a large chunk of that competition on its home turf, which just happens to be the world's second largest smartphone market.

    Oh. That 'one vendor'. People are asking why its latest phone hasn't appeared on the D0X Mark listing yet. Rumours claim the results would be too far ahead of the pack as to be detrimental to itself. As the iPhone X Max didn't top the current board leader - which is already six months old - and the current leader is made by that 'one vendor', it is rumoured that the Mate 20 Pro won't get a listing until something from the competition tops the P20 Pro. You will counter that the listing is worthless and mostly serves for marketing but marketing is one of the cogs that moves this industry.

    It's not that Apple can't play the 'unit sales game and succeed'. It can, but at what price (no pun intended)?

    It's been flat on unit sales for three years now - in spite of attempts to open up its spread (both on models and pricing). So that is flat sales in spite of those actions. Care to imagine how things would have looked if they hadn't taken that action?

    Given the situation, one of the possible options is to compete with itself and produce new phones (not old phones) for the mid tier and try to differentiate them enough to shore up premium sales. It hasn't chosen that option - yet.

    But 2019 is served and the iPhones - for all their marketing - haven't really turned heads and now won't do so until the end of 2019. That is a lot of quarters and Samsung  (S10) is going to hit hard as soon as the gates open on  the New Year. Huawei (P30 Pro) will follow soon after and right around Apple the time Apple has its 2019 refresh, both vendors will launch the latest Note and Mates. 

    So Apple has an expensive phone (made more expensive by sales tax and currency realities in certain regions) that doesn't really offer the bells and whistles that the price warrants.

    It looks like Apple doesn't plan for larger unit shipments and may in fact be preparing for some contraction.

    Apple has the ultimate card to know the state of its current market: Apple ID.

    It knows absolutely everything it needs to know about the state of play. Active accounts and if users are bringing in extra revenues, how many devices are linked to each account, which devices go off radar, the family sphere of users.

    I have speculated in the past that the so called 'super cycle' might have actually happened, but simply didn't register in terms of far higher unit sales. Apple always knew exactly what happened of course and will never make that data public.

    Given the possible state of play, this decision not to provide unit sales makes sense for the company. Analysts will continue to speculate, it's their job after all, and the stock will twitch on occasion but that is no different to today and has no bearing on anything.

    In a post iPhone Apple world, the focus will move to other areas, iPhone included of course, but with less weight. Just like the Mac today. Important but not the be all and end all.

    More bullshit from the Huawei troll/shill.

    Newsflash: There have been countless "iPhone killers" over the last 7-8 years that were supposed to knock the iPhone off its perch at the high end. To date, not one of them has succeeded. The CLOSEST anyone got was the Galaxy S4 back in 2014, which managed to sell 10 million units in its first month. Since then it's all been downhill and nobody has ever come close since. What makes you think (besides being delusional) that Huawei is going to steal sales from Apple where everyone else has failed? Nobody cross shops the superior iPhone to the inferior Huawei flagships.

    So you come up with ridiculous theories (poor Huawei isn't allowed to sell in the US) to imply that if they playing field were equal that Huawei would magically outsell the iPhone. The reason Huawei won't outsell the iPhone is because they are inferior devices. Plain and simple.

    No bleeding edge technology from Apple? Only to someone who doesn't understand technology. Your precious Kirin 980 didn't turn out to be nearly as good as you predicted, so you had to try and redefine what makes a processor advanced (like thinking including a cellular modem in the chip somehow makes it better).
    Indeed. For a hilarious look at his preferred knockoff brand’s “innovation”, check this out:


    ...they even stole the pairing screen! Copying Apple is all these chinese knockoffs know to do. That their ripoff is called “Honor” is a hoot. 
    Avon B7 is a funny guy. 

    Always talking about premium Chinese smartphones, especially Huawei's P20 products, which he will never purchase due to price. just like most of the Android OS buyers. It's a halo device, not destined for even moderate sales, but look at those specs!

    Funny thing.

    Avon B7 isn't even close to being correct about Apple services.

    https://www.aboveavalon.com/notes/2016/9/2/the-apple-services-myth

    Yeah, the author of that stated just a few days ago that he wouldn't change a thing in that article from two years ago

    From the link;

    "The Actual Story

    Apple's original services narrative has been taken completely out of context. Management's goal in pointing out service revenue was to emphasize the value found within the iOS ecosystem, not to explain an upcoming pivot away from hardware.

    Here's Tim Cook on Apple's 1Q16 earnings call explaining Apple's services business: 

    "[A] growing portion of our revenue is directly driven by our existing install base. Because our customers are very satisfied and engaged, they spend a lot of time on their devices and purchase apps, content, and other services. 

    They also are very likely to buy other Apple products or replace the one they own. And because of the enduring value of the device, their replacing is likely higher to be given or sold to someone who will also love and use it often. 

    So, as a result, our install base has been growing very fast and has recently reached a major milestone, crossing 1 billion active devices for the first time. This is an unbelievable asset for us. Because our install base has grown quickly, we have also seen an acceleration in the growth of our services business, another large and important source of recurring revenues."

    Cook is making the case that Apple's service business is seeing strong growth because of the growth in the install base driven by hardware sales. Nowhere did Cook discuss a new Apple directive aimed at increasing services revenue. Specifically, Cook is taking the information found in Exhibit 1 and flipping it on its head."

    Avon B7 has no concept of the value of an ecosystem and a growing installed base, hence why his argument of choice always comes down to device hardware spec comparisons and price.

    For the record, EMUI sucks sweaty balls, and I can't imagine any iPhone user putting up with it.
    You realise that when someone on the outside says 'I wouldn't change a word in what I wrote two years ago', it is synonymous of a simple opinion?

    I have my opinion too and it hasn't changed either. And?

    You need to understand what is happening. Apple smartphone unit sales have stalled. Flat for over three years. That is the Apple smartphone reality - sans distortion field.

    I definitely didn't even whisper the idea of a 'pivot away from hardware'. I don't know if anyone did.

    Tim Cook speaks of growing the installed base through hand me downs etc because there is simply not much to speak of in real unit terms. He would be overjoyed if there was real unit growth - but there isn't.

    And install base is only part of the story anyway. What is of far more importance is how many unique and active Apple IDs there are. Note how Tim Cook, in spite of having those numbers too, doesn't provide them!

    You are obsessed with ASP (which has no value whatsoever for consumers) and ecosystem.

    One of the things that you also need to understand is that ecosystems are not the holy grail for users. They are simply platforms.

    As for halo effects, you are wrong there too.

    Halo effects exist on many levels. One of them is brand recognition. Huawei announced today that pre orders for the Mate 20 Pro were are 40% higher than for the P20 Pro. That is the halo effect of the P20 Pro.

    Huawei has also held onto the number two spot in smartphone sales for Q3. Every single newspiece with that information also adds that Apple has dropped. That is also halo effect.

    All of this propagates down the range. I don't need a P20 Pro. My Honor 10 is amazing. When I bought it it had the latest HiSilicon SoC, excellent build quality and just months after the stunning night mode rolled out on the P20 Pro, it was pushed out to the Honor 10 too. More halo effect.

    Honor just launched the Magic 2 and it already has the Kirin 980!

    What don't you like about EMUI? It definitely doesn't suck sweaty balls. LOL.


    Lol... Android vendors biggest competition are other Android vendors. Huawei  is not gonna do anything to take on Apple. Huawei may eat into Samsung sales but will not impact Apple at all. The p20 and Mate are just another Android vessel. 

    Next year a new Android vendor will be the flavour of the week. Samsung, Xaomi and Hauwei offer nothing in terms of ecosystem and sticky-ness. They are reliant on unit sales to make money. Apple is not reliant on unit sales to the same degree. The iOS ecosystem is a money making machine. What is Huawei offering? A spec arms race? Apple copy cat hardware? LG, HTC and Motorola say hi. 
    Apple is a money making machine that's for sure but that grates on many users (myself included) as it means nothing to consumers and doesn't even get them more bang for buck. Paying more to make a company even richer and see most of the money sit offshore (tax free!) for literally YEARS and not improve hardware (take a long hard look at your 5W charger and refresh your memory on how much Apple has horded away) does nothing for the consumer.

    Huawei is not copy catting Apple hardware.
    Many designs are used by many manufacturers - Apple included.

    In fact Huawei has a lot of hardware that isn't even available on any iPhone!

    So while Huawei (lower ASP, less cash horded, more direct competition etc) was able to put out the P20 Pro and completely overshadow the iPhone X for less money 
    God you’re full of shit. Claiming Apple isn’t improving its hardware because they stick to a 5W charger defiles any concept of logic. Apple often uses a tick-dock dev cycle on its phones and the X was the tick, the XS the tock. If inventing face ID wasn’t innovative I don’t know what is.  

    And clinging to the false narrative that your chinese knockoffs aren’t copying Apple left & right is self-delusion. 



    You know, there are only limited options available when designing the shape of a phone and its key elements. Huawei releases a boatload of phones every year catering to different markets and price bands. Do a search for dual camera phones (Huawei was there before Apple, let's not forget). You will see a boatload of designs but you will eventually run out of options and end up repeating. Horizontal, Vertical, grouped (or not), bump (or not), left, right or centre aligned etc. Now, Huawei has chosen an upper centred 'square' look with a bump. It looks cool, amazing in person.

    This design was sent to Huawei direct from Jony Ive's office by a chip the size of a grain of rice sitting on his unreleased 5mm thick, triangular, Mac Pro!

    BTW, that's one nice notchless screen you put there.
    Is that an Apple design that the Chinese knocked off too?

    The 5W charger in 2019 (this is the 2019 phone remember) is frankly an insult. As for 'logic', there is none to be had for the user after paying over 800€ for the 'cheapest' new model but I don't expect you to share my view.
    It doesn’t have a notch BECAUSE IT HAS A CHIN. Dur dur... And yes, it’s obviously a chinese knockoff of an iphone.

    So good of you to ignore the shameless and obvious ripoffs as they are counter to your narrative. But we know your goose is cooked when even the Verge of all places does a story on why the chinese ripoff Apple.

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/17/17988564/chinese-phone-software-android-iphone-copy-ui
    It's a sub brand and I said notchless. The full screen look is what counts. The lack of a notch and having options. It doesn't matter if it has a tiny (so small that it can't even house a sensor or camera array) chin - if the notch is gone. The lack of a notch will appeal to many and, tiny chin included LOL, I'd wager that, on screen alone, many people prefer the Honor phone to any notched phone. That's why it exists, of course!

    And the Mate 20 Pro has even thinner bezels than an iPhone XS Max/XR- and a smaller notch:

    https://pocketnow.com/huawei-iphone-xr-bezels

    Of course, if chins are your thing, look no further than iPhone 8 which, ironically, has been taken to the cleaners by Apple Marketing itself. Incredible! Surely you can't begrudge Huawei for doing the same but with Apple's new phones even if Huawei's have a minimal chin themselves. It's about options.

    As for your link. Did you actually read it?

    In an article dedicated to the subject, it mentions a few app icons when it comes to Huawei and iOS. I use both systems and they are quite different on the whole. On top of that it says this about the Huawei camera app:

    "only Huawei has succeeded in creating a genuinely new camera app design, which happens to be very good."

    Hmmmn!

    And BTW, from the little I've seen of it, Apple's 'new' aperture mode interface looks very similar to one of EMUI's old takes on the function. Remember that Huawei had that function three years ago. I'm glad it wasn't the other way around or you'd be claiming that as a knock off too. QR reader in the camera app? Another very old EMUI feature. In fact EMUI has had a full 'pro' mode for the camera app for years now.

    As for screens, it looks like some LG sourced parts may be affected. Actually this isn't the first time either. If you have this issue, return the phone.
    I'm all for Huawei making fun of the iPhone 8, noting of course, that all of the newly released iPhones have the notch and no chin. Obviously, Huawei's engineers couldn't figure out how to squeeze the USB Type C connector in without the chin. Samsung says "hey!".

    "I use both systems and they are quite different on the whole"

    They probably are quite different, but you should also note that as you have never upgraded you wife's iPhone 6 from iOS 10, you aren't really being all that honest either, as you haven't any experience with iOS 12. You keep rationalizing about why you won't upgrade; afraid your wife might want another iPhone?

    The reviews that I have read of EMUI by Android OS users who review smartphones is that it is a comparable weakness against other notable Android OS devices. Obviously you would disagree with that. 

    Choices.

    As for Apple copying the aperture function, it should be noted that Huawei copied Apple's photo app early on; well, practically all of Android OS devices for that matter.

    https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/17/17988564/chinese-phone-software-android-iphone-copy-ui

    "As for the camera apps, it’s really incredible how similar the vast majority are — both to each other and to Apple. Judging by the accuracy and specificity of the rip-offs, the camera app from iOS 7 has a serious claim to being one of the most influential software designs of the past decade. Just look at the picture above. Xiaomi wins an extremely low number of points for putting the modes in a lowercase blue font. But otherwise, only Huawei has succeeded in creating a genuinely new camera app design, which happens to be very good. I consider it penance for the company’s egregious and barely functional rip-off of the iOS share sheet."


    Here's one opinion on Apple's Photo App:

    https://www.businessinsider.com/google-photos-vs-apple-photos-icloud-2018-7#google-photos-on-the-other-hand-is-rather-limited-in-its-sharing-features-8

    THE VERDICT: Apple's sleek and powerful software is the clear winner for both casual and advanced photographers.


    It's even better if you are in Apple's ecosystem, which you are, sadly, not.




    It's the second time I've posted this in this thread (this time from your quoted text and link):

    "only Huawei has succeeded in creating a genuinely new camera app design, which happens to be very good"

    Apple's camera app has always been a minimal affair. Huawei's has always been (since dual cameras arrived) a full on pro mode within the app. You can go as simple (one setting and let the AI take it from there) or as complex (pro mode) as you like.

    I don't really know why you are posting links to comparisons of photos apps. They are bundled apps/services.

    I used to tag photos and use smart search on OSX. A huge amount of time wasted because Apple later screwed up localising some strings in an OSX upgrade and broke every single smart search I had created. They never bothered to fix it!

    Later I switched to IPTC tagging using Graphic Converter (the best supported mac app ever) which also had some issues but when you reported them to the developer, he was lightning fast in fixing them (to the point of sending me private betas to test the fixes).

    Later, I not only found myself with less time to tag photos but less time to take them. I now have no need for any kind of specialised management tools and get by splendidly with the basics.

    Regards iOS, I have iOS 10 on the iPhone 6 and iOS 11 on the iPad Air 2. 

    No iOS12 yet but it has only been out for a few weeks.
    Huawei was running a clone of Apple's photo app before they had their "new" one, a retort to your aperture control first for Huawei, which actually looks awful compared to Apple's implementation.

    Still don't know what your concerns are with iOS 12.1, but here's a link to iMore's Rene Ritchie with a video on iOS 12.

    https://www.imore.com/should-you-upgrade-ios


    Current versions are; iOS 12.1, and Mac OS Mojave 10.14, just in case you are interested. iOS 12.1 brings realtime aperture adjustment, along with existing post production adjustment.


    Since I'm firmly in the Apple camp with iOS 12.1 (iPhone 7 Plus, and first generation iPad Pro 12.9) and Mac OS 10.14 Mojave on an iMac 5k, I actually have a number of photo apps that work cooperatively among my Apple devices. I'm expecting that the new iPad Pro 12.9 will work even better with a direct connection to my Nikon D500, though I'll have to wait for reviews to specifically confirm that.

    I have a number of very good third party photo/camera apps for the iPhone including Halide, which is noted for giving very good control of the iPhone's cameras.

    I don't wish to editorialize, but there isn't a downside to staying within Apple's ecosystem for photography; even given the small advantage of triple cameras, and Googles AI for low light. 
    edited November 2018
Sign In or Register to comment.