Morgan Stanley cuts Apple stock price target over weak Chinese iPhone demand

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 44
    hentaiboy said:
    As Buffet says: “Be greedy when others are fearful”.

    Just added some more AAPL @ $1.70
    If you’re buying AAPL at $1.70 I want the name of your broker.
    elijahgcornchipmuthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 22 of 44
    1983 said:
    Apple’s US website earlier this week:

    Apple’s US website today:

    Clearly Apple wants people to see XR $449 and XS $699. And notice the Learn More link was removed and Buy was changed to Buy Now.

    And I’m seeing on Twitter that owners of older iPhones are getting emails like this from Apple.

    Does Apple typically send out these kind of emails several months after a phone has been released? And emails where price is the first thing mentioned? I don’t remember seeing things like this last year at all. 
    Indeed, Apple seems to have become desperate to sell product very quickly. I think the company is entering its darkest period since the mid-90s. It has to find a viable alternative to the iPhone that provides most of its current income, but that’s a tall maybe impossible order for the near future. By the time the next gen of iPhones comes around its market capitalization maybe half of what it was just a few weeks ago! This is what happens when your business model still mostly depends on hardware units sold rather than services, which has been the saving grace of companies like Microsoft and Amazon. Apple has been one of the few (and lucky!) companies thus far that has somehow been exempt from this market reality. And while I think they’re aware of this and have been working towards an emphasis on services rather than hardware. They haven’t had enough time yet to achieve it. If they want enough time to achieve that goal, and if things carry on the way they are, they may indeed have to do a Dell and go private.
    Apple stock gains pretty much wiped out, now up only 1% for the year. If Apple is focusing more on the gray market then I suspect they’ll be pushing trade-ins more frequently. Ben Bajarin said he clarified with Apple that this GiveBack program is not new it just has a new name. But the discounts right now are bigger than they were before. And the fine print says limited time only. Clearly Apple is trying to entice as many customers as possible to upgrade in the Holiday quarter, in the US at least.
    edited December 2018 elijahg
  • Reply 23 of 44
    hentaiboy said:
    As Buffet says: “Be greedy when others are fearful”.

    Just added some more AAPL @ $1.70
    If you’re buying AAPL at $1.70 I want the name of your broker.
    Damn decimal points!
    SpamSandwichanton zuykovmuthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 24 of 44
    Katy Huberty following all of the other analysts, again, touting doom and gloom, whilst retaining a price target above AAPL’s all time high. Talk about wanting to have your cake and to eat it too.
  • Reply 25 of 44
    lewchenko said:
    They are still delusional to think it will be back at 236 within a year I think. 

    and I would disagree that the post above that the  markets are usually down this time of year. Quieter and flatter perhaps , but not down as much as they are. That’s due to exceptional circumstances this year and in apples case a series of bad news to go on top. 

    I got lucky and sold everything I had at 227 (main reason for selling was the sky high prices they were now charging.. smelled fishy)

    Key question is whether to get back in yet.  Gut says it’s gonna go lower (150 easily) before it slowly recovers back to 200 by mid next year. 

    But it I do agree with the analysts that apple has a problem. And cranking up the prices is not going to work in the long run of unit sales keep falling (which they will at the prices they are now charging) . All stocks are priced for future profit, hence why it’s falling. Hiding the unit sales after years of showing them also says you have something to hide. 

    ‘Cranking up prices’. Unless we see gross margin % increase your making stuff up. Been the same for almost a decade. 
    brucemcelijahgfastasleepflippysch
  • Reply 26 of 44
    Sadly ;) SoG is no longer posting here. He likely would be spouting all kinds of fun and exciting financial goofiness. 

    In his place, I propose AAPL will be @$300 by next Fall. Once all this BS blows over and Apple reports their numbers for the quarter. 
    elijahgcornchipmuthuk_vanalingambadmonk
  • Reply 27 of 44
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,527member
    1983 said:

    Indeed, Apple seems to have become desperate to sell product very quickly. I think the company is entering its darkest period since the mid-90s. It has to find a viable alternative to the iPhone that provides most of its current income, but that’s a tall maybe impossible order for the near future. By the time the next gen of iPhones comes around its market capitalization maybe half of what it was just a few weeks ago! This is what happens when your business model still mostly depends on hardware units sold rather than services, which has been the saving grace of companies like Microsoft and Amazon. Apple has been one of the few (and lucky!) companies thus far that has somehow been exempt from this market reality. And while I think they’re aware of this and have been working towards an emphasis on services rather than hardware. They haven’t had enough time yet to achieve it. If they want enough time to achieve that goal, and if things carry on the way they are, they may indeed have to do a Dell and go private.
    I will be happy to take any AAPL shares off your hands for mid-90s prices.  Please respond back and we can make the deal!!  Always happy to help someone out (you don't think Apple will succeed, I do, so it is that traditional "win-win").
    flippysch
  • Reply 28 of 44
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,527member

    brucemc said:
    lewchenko said:
    They are still delusional to think it will be back at 236 within a year I think. 

    and I would disagree that the post above that the  markets are usually down this time of year. Quieter and flatter perhaps , but not down as much as they are. That’s due to exceptional circumstances this year and in apples case a series of bad news to go on top. 

    I got lucky and sold everything I had at 227 (main reason for selling was the sky high prices they were now charging.. smelled fishy)

    Key question is whether to get back in yet.  Gut says it’s gonna go lower (150 easily) before it slowly recovers back to 200 by mid next year. 

    But it I do agree with the analysts that apple has a problem. And cranking up the prices is not going to work in the long run of unit sales keep falling (which they will at the prices they are now charging) . All stocks are priced for future profit, hence why it’s falling. Hiding the unit sales after years of showing them also says you have something to hide. 

    It's true.  Apple has absolutely no clue about where to go next.  If only they had invested in wearables or services or something...

    I'm a bit puzzled as to why Apple didn't see this coming years ago and forked away from iPhone dependency. Smartphone market saturation was clearly going to happen with all those cheap Android smartphones being cranked out 24/7/365. Apple will still be the most profitable smartphone maker but it seems that's not important to big investors. If Apple is struggling then how do all those other smartphone makers survive? That's something I can't quite figure out.
    If by struggling, you mean that Apple is likely (per their own traditionally conservative forecast) to post record revenue in this Q1 of fiscal 2019, then I guess that is a problem indeed!

    Before you respond back and tell me "sure, but what about the future", lets try to put a few things in context:

    1) iPhone sales are quite likely to be seeing some declines - too much evidence - but that is likely in the single digits %.  While higher pricing could be a factor, it could also be related to things like:
       a) Lengthening upgrade cycle, due to iOS12, battery replacement program, overall quality & features keeping users happy.  These are good things for user satisfaction.
       b) Some users that would by an "XR" (e.g. who purchased an iPhone 8 last year) might be put off by its size (no 4.7" chassis size - too big for my preference), and some wanting familiar TouchID
       c) Value of iPhone 8

    The point: Nothing is pointing to sales going off a cliff (user sat is very high).  iPhone user base continues to grow, though not as much (some people mistakenly believe that if unit sales drop, it means the installed/user base must be dropping which is of course not the case at all).  The iPhone market, like the Mac, can stabilize at a very high level of overall sales for years & years.  Growth might be over, but the $billions of sales remain.

    2) Apple is investing in new products.  They always have.  Apple Watch is growing well (40-50% YoY increases estimated, prices up).  AirPods are off the chart.  You can bet AR glasses are the top next product.  Additional focus on health.

    3) Services are growing strongly, and while a slowdown can happen due to slower growth of the user base, that is going to be offset by additional services (video, news) as well as increases with music, cloud, care.

    4) Fourth, and certainly not least.  From a stock perspective, Apple is buying back about $20B per quarter.  As the stock drops, they are able to buy back even more shares for same amount.  They might even increase the purchases in the short term.  This will cause an increase in EPS that - when the fear fades out - will be a catalyst for stock price rise.  Even traders who do not understand Apple react when EPS growth continues in double digits quarter in & out.
    tmayfastasleepLordeHawkflippyschscribe1964
  • Reply 29 of 44
    cornchipcornchip Posts: 1,289member
    dedgecko said:
    Sadly ;) SoG is no longer posting here. He likely would be spouting all kinds of fun and exciting financial goofiness. 

    In his place, I propose AAPL will be @$300 by next Fall. Once all this BS blows over and Apple reports their numbers for the quarter. 
    Then once it doesn’t, please go on a months-long maniacal tirade about how Cook should be fired. 😂
  • Reply 30 of 44
    Katy Hubery is a “analysts” for Mirgan Stanley. Her only duty to the company is to write articles that cause churn in stock she follows. Getting people to buy or sell is her only job, as MS only makes money when people buy or sell. People like me who bought AAPL twenty years ago and are holding are not her target, the emotional investor is who she and all analysts are preying upon. 
    SpamSandwich
  • Reply 31 of 44

    It’s been obvious for some time now, that Apple is selling a platform encompassing; personal computers, iPods, iPhones, iPads, wearables (watch, AirPods), home entertainment (Apple TV, HomePod), and services (Apple Care, Music, storage, App Store cut of ~30%).  I think of it as technology as a service or perhaps, Apple technology & design as a service.


    For some reason though, the average person can’t comprehend such a basic concept.  I’m honestly surprised by the amount of thread posts implying; Apple is in trouble, should’ve seen this coming, can’t innovate, or their ideas of what Apple should do.  Also, why do people think that flat iPhone unit growth is synonymous with shrinkage or doom?


    While everyone is frenziedly focused on the lack of iPhone unit data moving forward, they’re missing the most important metric.  Not the iPhone ASP (average selling price), but an individuals investment in Apple’s platform.


    The only important metric is the average amount spent on Apple’s total platform, graphed against a weighted time gradient, and broken down by individual.

    It’s that simple, Apple keeps innovating, and selling to their captive audience.

  • Reply 32 of 44
    Apple’s US website earlier this week:

    Apple’s US website today:

    Clearly Apple wants people to see XR $449 and XS $699. And notice the Learn More link was removed and Buy was changed to Buy Now.

    And I’m seeing on Twitter that owners of older iPhones are getting emails like this from Apple.

    Does Apple typically send out these kind of emails several months after a phone has been released? And emails where price is the first thing mentioned? I don’t remember seeing things like this last year at all. 
    I got excited when I saw this and thought Apple lowered the prices, when in actuality the low prices are for trade-ins. Thanks -- for nothing.
  • Reply 33 of 44
    I am in the market for new phones and a new carrier. On Black Friday, i went to Best Buy and the phone line was a constant 20 people for over an hour while I did other shopping. Perhaps the people were in line for anything but iPhones since there is no demand.

    I then went to Costco and signed on to their wait list to see a phone rep. There were two pages of names before mine. Over a week later and I am still waiting for them to contact me. Again, maybe everyone is excited to get a new phone as long it is not an iPhone -- due to lack of demand being mentioned in the media.

    Of course everyone knows Apple is a one product company. That must be why at Costco they had iPads and Apple Watches on display, but they had none of them in stock.
    edited December 2018
  • Reply 34 of 44
    Stock manipulation. Or as I call it: Apple Bear Bullshyte. 

    This sheep herding will end as soon as Apple's Q1 report is released early next year. The sheep will have been shorn. Sad faces on sad sheep. They never learn. We've been through this how many years in a row now? "Baa! Baa!"

    BTW: The technical term for this manipulation is 'SCOURING'.
  • Reply 35 of 44
    The value of a company, particularly large ones such as Apple do not change their value by very much each day.  The value of a company should be the value of its assets minus its liabilities.  Speculators pushed Apple’s price up to get it over $1 trillion and have now dropped its price like a stone.  This only serves to provide the speculators with huge profits.  I really don’t know why so many people and some much media time is taken up with share prices: it’s all smoke and mirrors. The speculators are basically gamblers, using other people’s money, and making up the rules as they go along.  This causes them to make money at everyone else’s expense from their investments in savings and pension plans.
  • Reply 36 of 44
    According to 9to5Mac Apple is currently pushing the XR in the App Store. Also according to Mixpanel data adoption of XS and XR is slower than previous models.
    https://9to5mac.com/2018/12/08/iphone-adoption-data-mixpanel/
    This, the push notifications encouraging people to upgrade, the trade-in push on Apple’s homepage all signal that they’re having to work harder to sell these models.

  • Reply 37 of 44
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 3,031moderator
    lkrupp said:
    Longer smartphone replacement cycles? I thought it was price and price alone. At least that’s what usual suspects are always yammering about here.
    It’s a combination, of course.  Apple makes amazing phones and has been for a decade.  Quality phones + nothing amazing/revolutionary in the new phones + rising ASPs + more people smartphones = decline in sales.  It’s not that hard to figure out
    Apparently it is hard to figure out.  As you will see come January earnings.  Apple is using the trade ins to shift older handsets out of user’s hands and into markets where many people can’t afford the latest models.  It’s brilliant really.

    Also, no longer reporting unit numbers or iPhone-specific revenue prevents analysts from calculating ASPs.  So Apple can raise the visibility of its normal trade-in offers, and even tweak them to better the deal by $50 versus previous instances, to build the iPhone active installed base while also boosting revenue.  But the myopic and biased analysts and pundits can’t see the forest for the trees. 
    edited December 2018
  • Reply 38 of 44
    claire1claire1 Posts: 497unconfirmed, member
    Apple’s US website earlier this week:
    *PIC*
    Apple’s US website today:
    *PIC*
    Clearly Apple wants people to see XR $449 and XS $699. And notice the Learn More link was removed and Buy was changed to Buy Now.

    And I’m seeing on Twitter that owners of older iPhones are getting emails like this from Apple.
    *PIC*
    Does Apple typically send out these kind of emails several months after a phone has been released? And emails where price is the first thing mentioned? I don’t remember seeing things like this last year at all. 
    I think Apple blew it by making the XR screen that big. It's most likely confusing customers.

    I bet they're trying to differentiate and inform customers about the differences.

    I can see an old lady spending LESS because she sees the "new" iPhone and thinks it's the better one.
    "Ooooh is this the latest iPhone? Wow pretty colors and larger screen than XS! I'll buy 3 please!"
  • Reply 39 of 44
    claire1claire1 Posts: 497unconfirmed, member

    1983 said:
    Indeed, Apple seems to have become desperate to sell product very quickly. I think the company is entering its darkest period since the mid-90s. It has to find a viable alternative to the iPhone that provides most of its current income, but that’s a tall maybe impossible order for the near future. By the time the next gen of iPhones comes around its market capitalization maybe half of what it was just a few weeks ago! This is what happens when your business model still mostly depends on hardware units sold rather than services, which has been the saving grace of companies like Microsoft and Amazon. Apple has been one of the few (and lucky!) companies thus far that has somehow been exempt from this market reality. And while I think they’re aware of this and have been working towards an emphasis on services rather than hardware. They haven’t had enough time yet to achieve it. If they want enough time to achieve that goal, and if things carry on the way they are, they may indeed have to do a Dell and go private.
    Apple just announced another record breaking quarter.

    Why is everyone panicking about iPhone sales? We have 0 clue how much iPhones are selling. Stop.
    scribe1964
  • Reply 40 of 44
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,958member
    And if Apple starts lowering prices it will then be doomed by Business Insider and Bloomberg because of declining ASPs and margins. Even if profit is overwhelming The doomsayers will counter with something else.  And I can see guys like @Rogifan_new whining and crying that Apple should refund the difference between the original price and the lower price to those who bought the phones at the original price. You see it’s a lose-lose for Apple with these negative types so Apple should do what it thinks is best for the company.
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