Retaliatory Chinese iPhone ban could cause 'demand destruction,' hammer Apple's earnings

2

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 51
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 17,061member
    adamc said:
    sdw2001 said:
    davgreg said:
    I think Apple created some level of demand destruction with the ever escalating price of the iPhone. They have had to give away financing to get people to swallow a thousand Dollar throwaway device to boost average selling price because raw numbers had plateaued.

    As to Mr Trump’s trade wars, they are easier to start than they are to fix. There are reports that China is preparing to weaponize access to rare earth minerals that are critical to every device Apple sells. America does have some deposits of the rare earths, but they are inferior stock that is much more expensive and dirty to process as they are usually found along with radioactive materials- unlike China’s supply.

    China can do some damage to us, it's true.   But we can cause disproportionate damage to them.  They cannot withstand a sustained, serious trade conflict.  Their economy is simply do dependent on access to our markets.  Additionally, Trump is signaling he's wiling to go to mat to get a deal, stating the tariffs could last a year or longer.  A lot of what you're hearing is just Chinese bluster.  It's why they had their ambassador all over cable news last week.  They are desperately trying to sway public opinion because they know they are hilariously outgunned.  
    The US market is make up of only 23% of China's total exports and it is no bigly to them. What is important is the number of jobs provided by the companies making goods for export. China is a country and not a company with limited resources unless it is Apple and it can wage the trade war as efficiently as anyone.

    With all due respect, you don't know what you're talking about.  The US market is massive.  A 23% hit in exports?  Are you kidding?  That would decimate their economy.  Even the relatively mild tariffs we've hit them with are slowing their growth rate.  China cannot begin to compete with us in a trade war.  It's not about efficiency, it's about the math.  
  • Reply 22 of 51
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 17,061member

    sdw2001 said:

    It's even bigger than that (China being fucked).  China depends on double digit economic growth.  Because they export so much, they need access to the world's largest economy (us).  The United States could, within a few years, completely disengage from China and still recover.  China would be decimated.   Chinese trade accounts for 2% of our economy, and U.S markets are 20% of theirs.  China is mostly blustering right now.  Behind closed doors, they are desperate for a deal.  
    And when China calls in all the US Debt it holds? What then? The US defaults on its loans? That would probably make the Yuan the worlds reserve currency.
    I've addressed this in other threads.  China can't "call" the debt.  What it could do us dump a trillion dollars of treasuries on the market, causing interest rates to skyrocket, and a deep recession to take hold.  However, because we are the worlds largest and most interconnected economy, it's very likely this would take down the world economy with it...China included.  Doing this is suicide for the Chinese.  It would likely even lead to a military conflict.  Though China has made strides with their military and is nothing to sneeze at, they still cannot compete with us.   Long story short...not going to happen.  
  • Reply 23 of 51
    jbdragonjbdragon Posts: 2,168member
    Trump is afraid that China will overtake the U.S. as the world's #1 economy and he can't stand to be #2 -- so he has declared war on them.

    How do you think the Chinese people are going to react?  
    How would we react if somebody started a war against us?
    HAHAHAHA, ya, that's a good one. China has gotten to where they are by MASSIVE IP theft. Plus completely unfair trade. Trump is doing something about it unlike past Presidents.
    edited May 28
  • Reply 24 of 51
    jbdragonjbdragon Posts: 2,168member
    tmay said:
    davgreg said:
    I think Apple created some level of demand destruction with the ever escalating price of the iPhone. They have had to give away financing to get people to swallow a thousand Dollar throwaway device to boost average selling price because raw numbers had plateaued.

    As to Mr Trump’s trade wars, they are easier to start than they are to fix. There are reports that China is preparing to weaponize access to rare earth minerals that are critical to every device Apple sells. America does have some deposits of the rare earths, but they are inferior stock that is much more expensive and dirty to process as they are usually found along with radioactive materials- unlike China’s supply.
    It isn't near as dire as you purport, albeit there will be wide price swings:

    https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-producing-countries/

    China is completely fucked if they lose U.S. origined Electronic Design Tools, like Cadence. They will fall way behind the U.S. and the West in Silicon design, and that's on top of being blocked from ARM licenses.


    Does anybody ever actually win in a war -- especially one as stupid and pointless as this one?
    It's not stupid or pointless at all. China has been taking massive advantage of the U.S. for YEARS. From completely unfair trade and Tariffs for them, alone with massive IP theft. I guess you just don't care about those things. You just want your cheapo Chinese garbage.
    edited May 28
  • Reply 25 of 51
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 17,061member

    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    davgreg said:
    I think Apple created some level of demand destruction with the ever escalating price of the iPhone. They have had to give away financing to get people to swallow a thousand Dollar throwaway device to boost average selling price because raw numbers had plateaued.

    As to Mr Trump’s trade wars, they are easier to start than they are to fix. There are reports that China is preparing to weaponize access to rare earth minerals that are critical to every device Apple sells. America does have some deposits of the rare earths, but they are inferior stock that is much more expensive and dirty to process as they are usually found along with radioactive materials- unlike China’s supply.
    It isn't near as dire as you purport, albeit there will be wide price swings:

    https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-producing-countries/

    China is completely fucked if they lose U.S. origined Electronic Design Tools, like Cadence. They will fall way behind the U.S. and the West in Silicon design, and that's on top of being blocked from ARM licenses.


    Does anybody ever actually win in a war -- especially one as stupid and pointless as this one?
    So, you are okay with U.S. Government and Corporate Research, plus that of the EU and other of our allies, being hacked/stolen acquired as a necessity of doing buisiness in China, to the benefit China's military and Security services, and at the same time, create an unequal playing field for U.S. and Western economies?

    Whatever your issues with Trump, it doesn't require that the West rollover to China's IP demands.

    Am I ok with China attacking the U.S.?   I wouldn't be -- if it had ever happened or if there was actual evidence that they were planning to do so.   But, it is only Trump and his minions claiming that. 
    But why would anybody believe the man who has already told over 10,000 lies?

    It's a matter of credibility.  Trump made claims and put demands on the rest of the world to back him in his war.   The rest of the world said:  "Show me the proof".   He couldn't.   All he had was propaganda and old, worn out allegations.

    Wars, particularly fake ones, help to support politicians but hurt the people.

    China at one point, in the 60's & 70's, was a direct and powerful threat to the U.S. capable of taking out any city in the U.S. at a moments notice -- and they still can.   We learned that we are BOTH better off cooperating with each other than starting phony, politically based wars -- and for 50 years we have both benefited from that symbiotic cooperation.

    The truth:
    What Trump has already admitted to being afraid of is that China will soon replace the U.S. as the world's #1 economy.   So, rather than strengthen U.S. industry (in a sustainable way rather than borrowing a Trillion $ for massive stock buybacks to boost Wall Street) he has chosen to try to block China's advance. 

    Since we both win with the cooperative agreements we've had for 50 years,
    And we both lose with a war against each other....
    ...  Well, I'll go with the American people and cooperation. 

    Your view is completely delusional.   China has attacked us on multiple fronts for decades.  They've hacked.  They've committed corporate espionage.  They've cheated at trade.  They've stolen military technology.  They've stolen IP.  They've engaged in forced tech transfers.  This is not new, nor even controversial.  You may think Trump's strategy of using tariffs as leverage won't work, but it's certainly not "propaganda" or a "fake war."   

    I have no idea what you're talking about wrt China's threat to us.  China was practically a third world country in the 1960's and 1970's.  Sure, they had nukes.  But they are much more advanced today, and still cannot take us on conventionally.  They don't have the naval or air power to do it.  

    China will likely replace us as the world's biggest economy just because of their sheer numbers.  They have three times our population.  So what if Trump is concerned about that?  We should all be concerned about it.  He who has the gold, makes the rules.  And I don't want China making the rules.  You're way, way off on the tax cuts.  We didn't borrow ANY money for them....revenue is UP since they went into effect.   

    Cooperation?  What a joke.  China has cheated on every deal they've made.  They've only been in the WTO for less than 20 years.  There is noncooperation...there is us foolishly letting them rip us off because we think money will create a free society for them.  It hasn't happened.  They are a threat, and must be stood up to.  
    JWSC
  • Reply 26 of 51
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 5,136member
    jbdragon said:
    Trump is afraid that China will overtake the U.S. as the world's #1 economy and he can't stand to be #2 -- so he has declared war on them.

    How do you think the Chinese people are going to react?  
    How would we react if somebody started a war against us?
    HAHAHAHA, ya, that's a good one. China has gotten to where they are by MASSIVE IP theft. Plus completely unfair trade. Trump is doing something about it unlike past Presidents.
    China got there with ip theft?   Yeh, if you believe Trump...   Most don't. 
    It's a reworked claim from the 70's & 80's when Japan was killing off our steel, auto and electronic industries.  It was false then and its false now.


  • Reply 27 of 51
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 5,136member
    jbdragon said:
    tmay said:
    davgreg said:
    I think Apple created some level of demand destruction with the ever escalating price of the iPhone. They have had to give away financing to get people to swallow a thousand Dollar throwaway device to boost average selling price because raw numbers had plateaued.

    As to Mr Trump’s trade wars, they are easier to start than they are to fix. There are reports that China is preparing to weaponize access to rare earth minerals that are critical to every device Apple sells. America does have some deposits of the rare earths, but they are inferior stock that is much more expensive and dirty to process as they are usually found along with radioactive materials- unlike China’s supply.
    It isn't near as dire as you purport, albeit there will be wide price swings:

    https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-producing-countries/

    China is completely fucked if they lose U.S. origined Electronic Design Tools, like Cadence. They will fall way behind the U.S. and the West in Silicon design, and that's on top of being blocked from ARM licenses.


    Does anybody ever actually win in a war -- especially one as stupid and pointless as this one?
    It's not stupid or pointless at all. China has been taking massive advantage of the U.S. for YEARS. From completely unfair trade and Tariffs for them, alone with massive IP theft. I guess you just don't care about those things. You just want your cheapo Chinese garbage.
    So prices go up while jobs go down.   How is that a good thing?
  • Reply 28 of 51
    wood1208wood1208 Posts: 2,007member
    Trump is afraid that China will overtake the U.S. as the world's #1 economy and he can't stand to be #2 -- so he has declared war on them.

    How do you think the Chinese people are going to react?  
    How would we react if somebody started a war against us?


    After Russia, China is indirectly in war against everyone but as trade and stealing/hacking tech.
    edited May 28
  • Reply 29 of 51
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 5,136member
    sdw2001 said:

    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    davgreg said:
    I think Apple created some level of demand destruction with the ever escalating price of the iPhone. They have had to give away financing to get people to swallow a thousand Dollar throwaway device to boost average selling price because raw numbers had plateaued.

    As to Mr Trump’s trade wars, they are easier to start than they are to fix. There are reports that China is preparing to weaponize access to rare earth minerals that are critical to every device Apple sells. America does have some deposits of the rare earths, but they are inferior stock that is much more expensive and dirty to process as they are usually found along with radioactive materials- unlike China’s supply.
    It isn't near as dire as you purport, albeit there will be wide price swings:

    https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-producing-countries/

    China is completely fucked if they lose U.S. origined Electronic Design Tools, like Cadence. They will fall way behind the U.S. and the West in Silicon design, and that's on top of being blocked from ARM licenses.


    Does anybody ever actually win in a war -- especially one as stupid and pointless as this one?
    So, you are okay with U.S. Government and Corporate Research, plus that of the EU and other of our allies, being hacked/stolen acquired as a necessity of doing buisiness in China, to the benefit China's military and Security services, and at the same time, create an unequal playing field for U.S. and Western economies?

    Whatever your issues with Trump, it doesn't require that the West rollover to China's IP demands.

    Am I ok with China attacking the U.S.?   I wouldn't be -- if it had ever happened or if there was actual evidence that they were planning to do so.   But, it is only Trump and his minions claiming that. 
    But why would anybody believe the man who has already told over 10,000 lies?

    It's a matter of credibility.  Trump made claims and put demands on the rest of the world to back him in his war.   The rest of the world said:  "Show me the proof".   He couldn't.   All he had was propaganda and old, worn out allegations.

    Wars, particularly fake ones, help to support politicians but hurt the people.

    China at one point, in the 60's & 70's, was a direct and powerful threat to the U.S. capable of taking out any city in the U.S. at a moments notice -- and they still can.   We learned that we are BOTH better off cooperating with each other than starting phony, politically based wars -- and for 50 years we have both benefited from that symbiotic cooperation.

    The truth:
    What Trump has already admitted to being afraid of is that China will soon replace the U.S. as the world's #1 economy.   So, rather than strengthen U.S. industry (in a sustainable way rather than borrowing a Trillion $ for massive stock buybacks to boost Wall Street) he has chosen to try to block China's advance. 

    Since we both win with the cooperative agreements we've had for 50 years,
    And we both lose with a war against each other....
    ...  Well, I'll go with the American people and cooperation. 

    Your view is completely delusional.   China has attacked us on multiple fronts for decades.  They've hacked.  They've committed corporate espionage.  They've cheated at trade.  They've stolen military technology.  They've stolen IP.  They've engaged in forced tech transfers.  This is not new, nor even controversial.  You may think Trump's strategy of using tariffs as leverage won't work, but it's certainly not "propaganda" or a "fake war."   

    I have no idea what you're talking about wrt China's threat to us.  China was practically a third world country in the 1960's and 1970's.  Sure, they had nukes.  But they are much more advanced today, and still cannot take us on conventionally.  They don't have the naval or air power to do it.  

    China will likely replace us as the world's biggest economy just because of their sheer numbers.  They have three times our population.  So what if Trump is concerned about that?  We should all be concerned about it.  He who has the gold, makes the rules.  And I don't want China making the rules.  You're way, way off on the tax cuts.  We didn't borrow ANY money for them....revenue is UP since they went into effect.   

    Cooperation?  What a joke.  China has cheated on every deal they've made.  They've only been in the WTO for less than 20 years.  There is noncooperation...there is us foolishly letting them rip us off because we think money will create a free society for them.  It hasn't happened.  They are a threat, and must be stood up to.  
    China attacked the US?   That's only true if you believe Trump.   But then he just passed 10,000 lies since taking office.

    As for matching our military?   They don't have to.   It only takes one bomb to take out NewYork or DC.  But, more than likely, if Trump keeps pressing them, they'll just stop messing around and take Taiwan back.

    For Trump borrowing money to goose an already full economy:  His trillion $ deficit says that he did and is.

    And, if sheer numbers were the key to success, then India would be doing a lot better.   The fact is:   China simply makes things better and cheaper than we do.   And its workforce is passing ours right by (better educated, younger and harder working) while ours chants "USA! USA! USA!" and tells themselves "We're the best workforce in the world!".
  • Reply 30 of 51
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 31,396member
    China would be potentially putting almost 5 million Chinese jobs at risk if they go after Apple. Go ahead. Let ‘em push their economy off a cliff.

    On the other hand, they could be realistic and start to treat their economy as mature enough to handle foreign investment, ownership and competition WITHOUT tariffs meant to protect their markets while taking advantage of other countries.
  • Reply 31 of 51
    TuongTuong Posts: 4member
    Aren't most of the iPhones made in China? How is ban going to affect employment of Chinese workers in China?
  • Reply 32 of 51
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 17,061member
    sdw2001 said:

    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    davgreg said:
    I think Apple created some level of demand destruction with the ever escalating price of the iPhone. They have had to give away financing to get people to swallow a thousand Dollar throwaway device to boost average selling price because raw numbers had plateaued.

    As to Mr Trump’s trade wars, they are easier to start than they are to fix. There are reports that China is preparing to weaponize access to rare earth minerals that are critical to every device Apple sells. America does have some deposits of the rare earths, but they are inferior stock that is much more expensive and dirty to process as they are usually found along with radioactive materials- unlike China’s supply.
    It isn't near as dire as you purport, albeit there will be wide price swings:

    https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-producing-countries/

    China is completely fucked if they lose U.S. origined Electronic Design Tools, like Cadence. They will fall way behind the U.S. and the West in Silicon design, and that's on top of being blocked from ARM licenses.


    Does anybody ever actually win in a war -- especially one as stupid and pointless as this one?
    So, you are okay with U.S. Government and Corporate Research, plus that of the EU and other of our allies, being hacked/stolen acquired as a necessity of doing buisiness in China, to the benefit China's military and Security services, and at the same time, create an unequal playing field for U.S. and Western economies?

    Whatever your issues with Trump, it doesn't require that the West rollover to China's IP demands.

    Am I ok with China attacking the U.S.?   I wouldn't be -- if it had ever happened or if there was actual evidence that they were planning to do so.   But, it is only Trump and his minions claiming that. 
    But why would anybody believe the man who has already told over 10,000 lies?

    It's a matter of credibility.  Trump made claims and put demands on the rest of the world to back him in his war.   The rest of the world said:  "Show me the proof".   He couldn't.   All he had was propaganda and old, worn out allegations.

    Wars, particularly fake ones, help to support politicians but hurt the people.

    China at one point, in the 60's & 70's, was a direct and powerful threat to the U.S. capable of taking out any city in the U.S. at a moments notice -- and they still can.   We learned that we are BOTH better off cooperating with each other than starting phony, politically based wars -- and for 50 years we have both benefited from that symbiotic cooperation.

    The truth:
    What Trump has already admitted to being afraid of is that China will soon replace the U.S. as the world's #1 economy.   So, rather than strengthen U.S. industry (in a sustainable way rather than borrowing a Trillion $ for massive stock buybacks to boost Wall Street) he has chosen to try to block China's advance. 

    Since we both win with the cooperative agreements we've had for 50 years,
    And we both lose with a war against each other....
    ...  Well, I'll go with the American people and cooperation. 

    Your view is completely delusional.   China has attacked us on multiple fronts for decades.  They've hacked.  They've committed corporate espionage.  They've cheated at trade.  They've stolen military technology.  They've stolen IP.  They've engaged in forced tech transfers.  This is not new, nor even controversial.  You may think Trump's strategy of using tariffs as leverage won't work, but it's certainly not "propaganda" or a "fake war."   

    I have no idea what you're talking about wrt China's threat to us.  China was practically a third world country in the 1960's and 1970's.  Sure, they had nukes.  But they are much more advanced today, and still cannot take us on conventionally.  They don't have the naval or air power to do it.  

    China will likely replace us as the world's biggest economy just because of their sheer numbers.  They have three times our population.  So what if Trump is concerned about that?  We should all be concerned about it.  He who has the gold, makes the rules.  And I don't want China making the rules.  You're way, way off on the tax cuts.  We didn't borrow ANY money for them....revenue is UP since they went into effect.   

    Cooperation?  What a joke.  China has cheated on every deal they've made.  They've only been in the WTO for less than 20 years.  There is noncooperation...there is us foolishly letting them rip us off because we think money will create a free society for them.  It hasn't happened.  They are a threat, and must be stood up to.  
    China attacked the US?   That's only true if you believe Trump.   But then he just passed 10,000 lies since taking office.

    As for matching our military?   They don't have to.   It only takes one bomb to take out NewYork or DC.  But, more than likely, if Trump keeps pressing them, they'll just stop messing around and take Taiwan back.

    For Trump borrowing money to goose an already full economy:  His trillion $ deficit says that he did and is.

    And, if sheer numbers were the key to success, then India would be doing a lot better.   The fact is:   China simply makes things better and cheaper than we do.   And its workforce is passing ours right by (better educated, younger and harder working) while ours chants "USA! USA! USA!" and tells themselves "We're the best workforce in the world!".

    1.  I know that's a line opponents of the President like to use.  No sense in arguing that....but I will state clearly that China has been attacking us for decades.  It's not a question.  

    2.  And it takes one bomb to take out Beijing.  China is not going to invade Taiwan.  If they do, they'll get into a full out war with us.  

    3.  You clearly don't understand how the deficit works.  The deficit we have is not caused by the tax cuts.  That's a provable assertion.  Despite large rate cuts, revenue is up.  Do you understand?  Revenue is higher than it was pre-cut.  The problem is that spending is up more.   Neither party seems to care about spending right now.  

    4.  I'm not sure what your point is there, except to route against the country.  I am saying that China will likely take over as the world's largest economy because they have so many more people than we do.  Of course, I don't make this comment in a  vacuum.  China is on an economic trajectory that they have carefully planned since the last 1970's.  Their goal is to be able to take us on militarily and economically by 2050.  Right now, they are probably at least 10 years ahead of schedule.   in any case, India is not yet not on the same path.  India has not experienced the rocket-like growth China has.  They have a different economy, culture and value system in many cases.  


  • Reply 33 of 51
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 17,061member

    jbdragon said:
    Trump is afraid that China will overtake the U.S. as the world's #1 economy and he can't stand to be #2 -- so he has declared war on them.

    How do you think the Chinese people are going to react?  
    How would we react if somebody started a war against us?
    HAHAHAHA, ya, that's a good one. China has gotten to where they are by MASSIVE IP theft. Plus completely unfair trade. Trump is doing something about it unlike past Presidents.
    China got there with ip theft?   Yeh, if you believe Trump...   Most don't. 
    It's a reworked claim from the 70's & 80's when Japan was killing off our steel, auto and electronic industries.  It was false then and its false now.



    It seems to me your opinion of the President has infected your ability to critically analyze the situation.   You're more than welcome to that opinion, but you're not welcome to your own facts.  How you can claim that the Japanese didn't do major damage to our auto, steel and electronics industries is beyond me.  It's almost as bizarre as claiming China isn't attacking us on trade.  
    JWSCGG1
  • Reply 34 of 51
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 5,136member
    sdw2001 said:
    sdw2001 said:

    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    davgreg said:
    I think Apple created some level of demand destruction with the ever escalating price of the iPhone. They have had to give away financing to get people to swallow a thousand Dollar throwaway device to boost average selling price because raw numbers had plateaued.

    As to Mr Trump’s trade wars, they are easier to start than they are to fix. There are reports that China is preparing to weaponize access to rare earth minerals that are critical to every device Apple sells. America does have some deposits of the rare earths, but they are inferior stock that is much more expensive and dirty to process as they are usually found along with radioactive materials- unlike China’s supply.
    It isn't near as dire as you purport, albeit there will be wide price swings:

    https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-producing-countries/

    China is completely fucked if they lose U.S. origined Electronic Design Tools, like Cadence. They will fall way behind the U.S. and the West in Silicon design, and that's on top of being blocked from ARM licenses.


    Does anybody ever actually win in a war -- especially one as stupid and pointless as this one?
    So, you are okay with U.S. Government and Corporate Research, plus that of the EU and other of our allies, being hacked/stolen acquired as a necessity of doing buisiness in China, to the benefit China's military and Security services, and at the same time, create an unequal playing field for U.S. and Western economies?

    Whatever your issues with Trump, it doesn't require that the West rollover to China's IP demands.

    Am I ok with China attacking the U.S.?   I wouldn't be -- if it had ever happened or if there was actual evidence that they were planning to do so.   But, it is only Trump and his minions claiming that. 
    But why would anybody believe the man who has already told over 10,000 lies?

    It's a matter of credibility.  Trump made claims and put demands on the rest of the world to back him in his war.   The rest of the world said:  "Show me the proof".   He couldn't.   All he had was propaganda and old, worn out allegations.

    Wars, particularly fake ones, help to support politicians but hurt the people.

    China at one point, in the 60's & 70's, was a direct and powerful threat to the U.S. capable of taking out any city in the U.S. at a moments notice -- and they still can.   We learned that we are BOTH better off cooperating with each other than starting phony, politically based wars -- and for 50 years we have both benefited from that symbiotic cooperation.

    The truth:
    What Trump has already admitted to being afraid of is that China will soon replace the U.S. as the world's #1 economy.   So, rather than strengthen U.S. industry (in a sustainable way rather than borrowing a Trillion $ for massive stock buybacks to boost Wall Street) he has chosen to try to block China's advance. 

    Since we both win with the cooperative agreements we've had for 50 years,
    And we both lose with a war against each other....
    ...  Well, I'll go with the American people and cooperation. 

    Your view is completely delusional.   China has attacked us on multiple fronts for decades.  They've hacked.  They've committed corporate espionage.  They've cheated at trade.  They've stolen military technology.  They've stolen IP.  They've engaged in forced tech transfers.  This is not new, nor even controversial.  You may think Trump's strategy of using tariffs as leverage won't work, but it's certainly not "propaganda" or a "fake war."   

    I have no idea what you're talking about wrt China's threat to us.  China was practically a third world country in the 1960's and 1970's.  Sure, they had nukes.  But they are much more advanced today, and still cannot take us on conventionally.  They don't have the naval or air power to do it.  

    China will likely replace us as the world's biggest economy just because of their sheer numbers.  They have three times our population.  So what if Trump is concerned about that?  We should all be concerned about it.  He who has the gold, makes the rules.  And I don't want China making the rules.  You're way, way off on the tax cuts.  We didn't borrow ANY money for them....revenue is UP since they went into effect.   

    Cooperation?  What a joke.  China has cheated on every deal they've made.  They've only been in the WTO for less than 20 years.  There is noncooperation...there is us foolishly letting them rip us off because we think money will create a free society for them.  It hasn't happened.  They are a threat, and must be stood up to.  
    China attacked the US?   That's only true if you believe Trump.   But then he just passed 10,000 lies since taking office.

    As for matching our military?   They don't have to.   It only takes one bomb to take out NewYork or DC.  But, more than likely, if Trump keeps pressing them, they'll just stop messing around and take Taiwan back.

    For Trump borrowing money to goose an already full economy:  His trillion $ deficit says that he did and is.

    And, if sheer numbers were the key to success, then India would be doing a lot better.   The fact is:   China simply makes things better and cheaper than we do.   And its workforce is passing ours right by (better educated, younger and harder working) while ours chants "USA! USA! USA!" and tells themselves "We're the best workforce in the world!".

    1.  I know that's a line opponents of the President like to use.  No sense in arguing that....but I will state clearly that China has been attacking us for decades.  It's not a question.  

    2.  And it takes one bomb to take out Beijing.  China is not going to invade Taiwan.  If they do, they'll get into a full out war with us.  

    3.  You clearly don't understand how the deficit works.  The deficit we have is not caused by the tax cuts.  That's a provable assertion.  Despite large rate cuts, revenue is up.  Do you understand?  Revenue is higher than it was pre-cut.  The problem is that spending is up more.   Neither party seems to care about spending right now.  

    4.  I'm not sure what your point is there, except to route against the country.  I am saying that China will likely take over as the world's largest economy because they have so many more people than we do.  Of course, I don't make this comment in a  vacuum.  China is on an economic trajectory that they have carefully planned since the last 1970's.  Their goal is to be able to take us on militarily and economically by 2050.  Right now, they are probably at least 10 years ahead of schedule.   in any case, India is not yet not on the same path.  India has not experienced the rocket-like growth China has.  They have a different economy, culture and value system in many cases.  


    1,   Not to be questioned?   Maybe you SHOULD start questioning -- not only what you have been told on this point but on all the other things you've said.  They are based on lies, spin and propaganda, not fact.

    For the rest:   See #1 above.
  • Reply 35 of 51
    suddenly newtonsuddenly newton Posts: 13,763member
    Explain to me how Apple has anything to do with the actions of the Trump administration.
    As far as I can tell, Huawei’s program to copy western smartphone designs are not affected by the ban, so Chinese consumers will still be able to enjoy the benefits of Apple design without buying anything from Apple.

    However, Google, Intel, ARM, and Microsoft cutting ties with Huawei will hurt Huawei. Are these Chinese consumers going to “retaliate” against Google, Intel, ARM, and Microsoft? No? Just Apple huh? Figures. Fandroids to the bitter end.  ;)
  • Reply 36 of 51
    JWSCJWSC Posts: 529member
    tmay said:
    davgreg said:
    I think Apple created some level of demand destruction with the ever escalating price of the iPhone. They have had to give away financing to get people to swallow a thousand Dollar throwaway device to boost average selling price because raw numbers had plateaued.

    As to Mr Trump’s trade wars, they are easier to start than they are to fix. There are reports that China is preparing to weaponize access to rare earth minerals that are critical to every device Apple sells. America does have some deposits of the rare earths, but they are inferior stock that is much more expensive and dirty to process as they are usually found along with radioactive materials- unlike China’s supply.
    It isn't near as dire as you purport, albeit there will be wide price swings:

    https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-producing-countries/

    China is completely fucked if they lose U.S. origined Electronic Design Tools, like Cadence. They will fall way behind the U.S. and the West in Silicon design, and that's on top of being blocked from ARM licenses.


    Does anybody ever actually win in a war -- especially one as stupid and pointless as this one?

    I have said it before and I’ll say it again, trade wars are generally lose/lose scenarios as are shooting wars, even though one side tends to lose much more than the other.  So you are saying that you are against the current trade war.  Fair enough.

    How would you propose to engage the Chinese government and big Chinese industry that works hand in hand with their government to steal IP from companies the world over?  That is not a tenable situation.  What solution do you propose?

  • Reply 37 of 51
    JWSCJWSC Posts: 529member
    sdw2001 said:

    It's even bigger than that (China being fucked).  China depends on double digit economic growth.  Because they export so much, they need access to the world's largest economy (us).  The United States could, within a few years, completely disengage from China and still recover.  China would be decimated.   Chinese trade accounts for 2% of our economy, and U.S markets are 20% of theirs.  China is mostly blustering right now.  Behind closed doors, they are desperate for a deal.  
    And when China calls in all the US Debt it holds? What then? The US defaults on its loans? That would probably make the Yuan the worlds reserve currency.
    Well, in theory it could.  But how many banks out there would be willing to invest their assets in the Chinese yuan, a currency held by an authoritarian regime that isn’t exactly keen on transparency?  ...  Crickets chirping.
  • Reply 38 of 51
    JWSCJWSC Posts: 529member
    Kuyangkoh said:
    Trump is afraid that China will overtake the U.S. as the world's #1 economy and he can't stand to be #2 -- so he has declared war on them.

    How do you think the Chinese people are going to react?  
    How would we react if somebody started a war against us?
    All Trump wanted is negotiated not to steal american technology....fair trade. But American company are so greedy. They wanted cheap labor and huge profits. Now look what the Chinese are doing in West Philippines Sea? The Philippines are so corrupt that they are taking huge clams in the sea....destroying even the corals for building fake island. Is that FAIR??
    I was in the Philippines two years ago and I saw Chineses trucks with Chinese license plates driving all over Northern Luzon.  They were carting off local resources left and right.  It’s like the Chinese own the place.  No doubt they paid for it in bribes to the right local officials.
  • Reply 39 of 51
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 5,136member
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    davgreg said:
    I think Apple created some level of demand destruction with the ever escalating price of the iPhone. They have had to give away financing to get people to swallow a thousand Dollar throwaway device to boost average selling price because raw numbers had plateaued.

    As to Mr Trump’s trade wars, they are easier to start than they are to fix. There are reports that China is preparing to weaponize access to rare earth minerals that are critical to every device Apple sells. America does have some deposits of the rare earths, but they are inferior stock that is much more expensive and dirty to process as they are usually found along with radioactive materials- unlike China’s supply.
    It isn't near as dire as you purport, albeit there will be wide price swings:

    https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-producing-countries/

    China is completely fucked if they lose U.S. origined Electronic Design Tools, like Cadence. They will fall way behind the U.S. and the West in Silicon design, and that's on top of being blocked from ARM licenses.


    Does anybody ever actually win in a war -- especially one as stupid and pointless as this one?

    I have said it before and I’ll say it again, trade wars are generally lose/lose scenarios as are shooting wars, even though one side tends to lose much more than the other.  So you are saying that you are against the current trade war.  Fair enough.

    How would you propose to engage the Chinese government and big Chinese industry that works hand in hand with their government to steal IP from companies the world over?  That is not a tenable situation.  What solution do you propose?

    I would first demonstrate that that actually happened and/or is happening.

    So far all we have is a claim that Huawei copied an essentially worthless taptap app from T-Mobile for which the settled up years ago.   Well, we have that nothing burger and a LOT of fake outrage and propaganda.

    Other than that, if China did steal something, then bring it up specifically and explicitly and deal with it.

    Frankly, it all sounds like a distraction from the country that really did attack us -- and is continuing to attack us as our next election warms up.
  • Reply 40 of 51
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 5,136member
    JWSC said:
    sdw2001 said:

    It's even bigger than that (China being fucked).  China depends on double digit economic growth.  Because they export so much, they need access to the world's largest economy (us).  The United States could, within a few years, completely disengage from China and still recover.  China would be decimated.   Chinese trade accounts for 2% of our economy, and U.S markets are 20% of theirs.  China is mostly blustering right now.  Behind closed doors, they are desperate for a deal.  
    And when China calls in all the US Debt it holds? What then? The US defaults on its loans? That would probably make the Yuan the worlds reserve currency.
    Well, in theory it could.  But how many banks out there would be willing to invest their assets in the Chinese yuan, a currency held by an authoritarian regime that isn’t exactly keen on transparency?  ...  Crickets chirping.
    With our $22 Trillion debt load and a Trillion $ annual deficit -- and no end in sight -- and Trump's & Republican casual attitude about defaulting on debts, I have to wonder why anybody would want our debt. 

    Currently, they obviously do.   But that change in a hurry and in a very big way.

    Frankly,  THAT is what we should be concerned about - not China.

    (Actually, as I understand it, China and most SE Asian countries have far better debt level than we do).
    edited May 28
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