Retaliatory Chinese iPhone ban could cause 'demand destruction,' hammer Apple's earnings

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 51
    GG1GG1 Posts: 276member
    Kuyangkoh said:
    Trump is afraid that China will overtake the U.S. as the world's #1 economy and he can't stand to be #2 -- so he has declared war on them.

    How do you think the Chinese people are going to react?  
    How would we react if somebody started a war against us?
    All Trump wanted is negotiated not to steal american technology....fair trade. But American company are so greedy. They wanted cheap labor and huge profits. Now look what the Chinese are doing in West Philippines Sea? The Philippines are so corrupt that they are taking huge clams in the sea....destroying even the corals for building fake island. Is that FAIR??
    Don't you mean the Chinese? They are building the artificial islands in a region of islands claimed by the Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, and (further north) Japan.
    LordeHawk
  • Reply 42 of 51
    GG1GG1 Posts: 276member
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    davgreg said:
    I think Apple created some level of demand destruction with the ever escalating price of the iPhone. They have had to give away financing to get people to swallow a thousand Dollar throwaway device to boost average selling price because raw numbers had plateaued.

    As to Mr Trump’s trade wars, they are easier to start than they are to fix. There are reports that China is preparing to weaponize access to rare earth minerals that are critical to every device Apple sells. America does have some deposits of the rare earths, but they are inferior stock that is much more expensive and dirty to process as they are usually found along with radioactive materials- unlike China’s supply.
    It isn't near as dire as you purport, albeit there will be wide price swings:

    https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-producing-countries/

    China is completely fucked if they lose U.S. origined Electronic Design Tools, like Cadence. They will fall way behind the U.S. and the West in Silicon design, and that's on top of being blocked from ARM licenses.


    Does anybody ever actually win in a war -- especially one as stupid and pointless as this one?
    So, you are okay with U.S. Government and Corporate Research, plus that of the EU and other of our allies, being hacked/stolen acquired as a necessity of doing buisiness in China, to the benefit China's military and Security services, and at the same time, create an unequal playing field for U.S. and Western economies?

    Whatever your issues with Trump, it doesn't require that the West rollover to China's IP demands.

    Am I ok with China attacking the U.S.?   I wouldn't be -- if it had ever happened or if there was actual evidence that they were planning to do so.   But, it is only Trump and his minions claiming that. 
    But why would anybody believe the man who has already told over 10,000 lies?

    It's a matter of credibility.  Trump made claims and put demands on the rest of the world to back him in his war.   The rest of the world said:  "Show me the proof".   He couldn't.   All he had was propaganda and old, worn out allegations.

    Wars, particularly fake ones, help to support politicians but hurt the people.

    China at one point, in the 60's & 70's, was a direct and powerful threat to the U.S. capable of taking out any city in the U.S. at a moments notice -- and they still can.   We learned that we are BOTH better off cooperating with each other than starting phony, politically based wars -- and for 50 years we have both benefited from that symbiotic cooperation.

    The truth:
    What Trump has already admitted to being afraid of is that China will soon replace the U.S. as the world's #1 economy.   So, rather than strengthen U.S. industry (in a sustainable way rather than borrowing a Trillion $ for massive stock buybacks to boost Wall Street) he has chosen to try to block China's advance. 

    Since we both win with the cooperative agreements we've had for 50 years,
    And we both lose with a war against each other....
    ...  Well, I'll go with the American people and cooperation. 
    Would you be saying the same things if you replace "Trump" with "Obama" or anyone else (for doing the same actions against China)?

    Edited for clarity.
    edited May 28
  • Reply 43 of 51
    ivanhivanh Posts: 381member
    Major Apple investors should smell the rat that Apple lacks the capability to enter the emerging IoT era. Mobile phone will be gone in 5 years and replace by new IoT- type of communication devices.
  • Reply 44 of 51
    JWSCJWSC Posts: 539member
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    davgreg said:
    I think Apple created some level of demand destruction with the ever escalating price of the iPhone. They have had to give away financing to get people to swallow a thousand Dollar throwaway device to boost average selling price because raw numbers had plateaued.

    As to Mr Trump’s trade wars, they are easier to start than they are to fix. There are reports that China is preparing to weaponize access to rare earth minerals that are critical to every device Apple sells. America does have some deposits of the rare earths, but they are inferior stock that is much more expensive and dirty to process as they are usually found along with radioactive materials- unlike China’s supply.
    It isn't near as dire as you purport, albeit there will be wide price swings:

    https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-producing-countries/

    China is completely fucked if they lose U.S. origined Electronic Design Tools, like Cadence. They will fall way behind the U.S. and the West in Silicon design, and that's on top of being blocked from ARM licenses.


    Does anybody ever actually win in a war -- especially one as stupid and pointless as this one?

    I have said it before and I’ll say it again, trade wars are generally lose/lose scenarios as are shooting wars, even though one side tends to lose much more than the other.  So you are saying that you are against the current trade war.  Fair enough.

    How would you propose to engage the Chinese government and big Chinese industry that works hand in hand with their government to steal IP from companies the world over?  That is not a tenable situation.  What solution do you propose?

    I would first demonstrate that that actually happened and/or is happening.

    So far all we have is a claim that Huawei copied an essentially worthless taptap app from T-Mobile for which the settled up years ago.   Well, we have that nothing burger and a LOT of fake outrage and propaganda.

    Other than that, if China did steal something, then bring it up specifically and explicitly and deal with it.

    Frankly, it all sounds like a distraction from the country that really did attack us -- and is continuing to attack us as our next election warms up.

    It has been documented repeatedly by numerous Governments, the press, and (if somewhat reluctantly) industry sources for more than a decade.  The hacking of Government and industry firewalled networks is a constant reality each day, with staggering costs in terms of equipment monitoring, downtime, IT support personnel and IT security experts.  IP theft is widespread among industry, not just Government.  My own company is no exception.

    We have been engaged with China for two decades in the WTO having discussions about these very topics.  China made promises and it didn’t keep them.  What, you don’t believe that happened either?

    Your willful disbelief is disturbing, as is your less than stellar command of some basic facts about China.  That you choose to disbelieve, there’s nothing I can do to change that.  But if all you choose to do is bury your head in the sand, then there’s not much relevant you can add to the discussion.

    LordeHawkGG1
  • Reply 45 of 51
    LordeHawkLordeHawk Posts: 168member
    ivanh said:
    Major Apple investors should smell the rat that Apple lacks the capability to enter the emerging IoT era. Mobile phone will be gone in 5 years and replace by new IoT- type of communication devices.
    The only thing I smell, is a Chinese Troll.

    Apple investors are smart enough not to fall for your false narrative.  You obviously don’t understand the IoT platform, it doesn’t directly replace a mobile phone.  Technically, an iPhone is an IoT communication device, with its sensors, services, apps, and internet access.  In 5 years the new communication devices will be Apple Watch 9 and iPhone XIII.
    Unfortunately, you will also still be here, with nothing relevant to say.

    Is anybody else getting sick of the new posters, and their bad grammar due to translation software?  How they’re very critical of Apple and the US?

    edited May 29
  • Reply 46 of 51
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 5,147member
    GG1 said:
    tmay said:
    tmay said:
    davgreg said:
    I think Apple created some level of demand destruction with the ever escalating price of the iPhone. They have had to give away financing to get people to swallow a thousand Dollar throwaway device to boost average selling price because raw numbers had plateaued.

    As to Mr Trump’s trade wars, they are easier to start than they are to fix. There are reports that China is preparing to weaponize access to rare earth minerals that are critical to every device Apple sells. America does have some deposits of the rare earths, but they are inferior stock that is much more expensive and dirty to process as they are usually found along with radioactive materials- unlike China’s supply.
    It isn't near as dire as you purport, albeit there will be wide price swings:

    https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-producing-countries/

    China is completely fucked if they lose U.S. origined Electronic Design Tools, like Cadence. They will fall way behind the U.S. and the West in Silicon design, and that's on top of being blocked from ARM licenses.


    Does anybody ever actually win in a war -- especially one as stupid and pointless as this one?
    So, you are okay with U.S. Government and Corporate Research, plus that of the EU and other of our allies, being hacked/stolen acquired as a necessity of doing buisiness in China, to the benefit China's military and Security services, and at the same time, create an unequal playing field for U.S. and Western economies?

    Whatever your issues with Trump, it doesn't require that the West rollover to China's IP demands.

    Am I ok with China attacking the U.S.?   I wouldn't be -- if it had ever happened or if there was actual evidence that they were planning to do so.   But, it is only Trump and his minions claiming that. 
    But why would anybody believe the man who has already told over 10,000 lies?

    It's a matter of credibility.  Trump made claims and put demands on the rest of the world to back him in his war.   The rest of the world said:  "Show me the proof".   He couldn't.   All he had was propaganda and old, worn out allegations.

    Wars, particularly fake ones, help to support politicians but hurt the people.

    China at one point, in the 60's & 70's, was a direct and powerful threat to the U.S. capable of taking out any city in the U.S. at a moments notice -- and they still can.   We learned that we are BOTH better off cooperating with each other than starting phony, politically based wars -- and for 50 years we have both benefited from that symbiotic cooperation.

    The truth:
    What Trump has already admitted to being afraid of is that China will soon replace the U.S. as the world's #1 economy.   So, rather than strengthen U.S. industry (in a sustainable way rather than borrowing a Trillion $ for massive stock buybacks to boost Wall Street) he has chosen to try to block China's advance. 

    Since we both win with the cooperative agreements we've had for 50 years,
    And we both lose with a war against each other....
    ...  Well, I'll go with the American people and cooperation. 
    Would you be saying the same things if you replace "Trump" with "Obama" or anyone else (for doing the same actions against China)?

    Edited for clarity.
    Y E S !
    Absolutely!

    My only loyalty is to the U.S. and what it stands for:  freedom, equality, fairness, honor and honesty.   It does not go to any political party except in how it can help to be fulfill and live those values.
  • Reply 47 of 51
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 5,147member
    JWSC said:
    JWSC said:
    tmay said:
    davgreg said:
    I think Apple created some level of demand destruction with the ever escalating price of the iPhone. They have had to give away financing to get people to swallow a thousand Dollar throwaway device to boost average selling price because raw numbers had plateaued.

    As to Mr Trump’s trade wars, they are easier to start than they are to fix. There are reports that China is preparing to weaponize access to rare earth minerals that are critical to every device Apple sells. America does have some deposits of the rare earths, but they are inferior stock that is much more expensive and dirty to process as they are usually found along with radioactive materials- unlike China’s supply.
    It isn't near as dire as you purport, albeit there will be wide price swings:

    https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-producing-countries/

    China is completely fucked if they lose U.S. origined Electronic Design Tools, like Cadence. They will fall way behind the U.S. and the West in Silicon design, and that's on top of being blocked from ARM licenses.


    Does anybody ever actually win in a war -- especially one as stupid and pointless as this one?

    I have said it before and I’ll say it again, trade wars are generally lose/lose scenarios as are shooting wars, even though one side tends to lose much more than the other.  So you are saying that you are against the current trade war.  Fair enough.

    How would you propose to engage the Chinese government and big Chinese industry that works hand in hand with their government to steal IP from companies the world over?  That is not a tenable situation.  What solution do you propose?

    I would first demonstrate that that actually happened and/or is happening.

    So far all we have is a claim that Huawei copied an essentially worthless taptap app from T-Mobile for which the settled up years ago.   Well, we have that nothing burger and a LOT of fake outrage and propaganda.

    Other than that, if China did steal something, then bring it up specifically and explicitly and deal with it.

    Frankly, it all sounds like a distraction from the country that really did attack us -- and is continuing to attack us as our next election warms up.

    It has been documented repeatedly by numerous Governments, the press, and (if somewhat reluctantly) industry sources for more than a decade.  The hacking of Government and industry firewalled networks is a constant reality each day, with staggering costs in terms of equipment monitoring, downtime, IT support personnel and IT security experts.  IP theft is widespread among industry, not just Government.  My own company is no exception.

    We have been engaged with China for two decades in the WTO having discussions about these very topics.  China made promises and it didn’t keep them.  What, you don’t believe that happened either?

    Your willful disbelief is disturbing, as is your less than stellar command of some basic facts about China.  That you choose to disbelieve, there’s nothing I can do to change that.  But if all you choose to do is bury your head in the sand, then there’s not much relevant you can add to the discussion.

    Uhh, well, no....  In the case of Huawei, with the exception of a handful, most governments asked Trump to provide evidence of his claims and, when he couldn't supply any, continued their engagement with Huawei.  And, for trade, no country but the U.S. is cutting ties with China.  Trump is pretty much going this alone and increasingly isolating the U.S. from the world economy.

    And, if you want to talk about hacking -- you should be talking about Trump's buddies:  Putin and Kim.   Except in some isolated, individual cases, it has not been China.

    As for ongoing trade talks:   well, those are ALWAYS ongoing, with every country.  
    And what promises did they break?

    You seem to be believing Trump's claims despite the lack of evidence behind them.
    That is typical of those living in the right wing bubble.
    Trump has told you that he is your savior, and you want to believe him and everything he says despite his history as a liar and con man.

    But, even Trump has admitted his true motivation for attacking China:   (aside from its distraction value from the investigations) he knows that China is headed to displacing the U.S. as the world's largest economy.   He wants to stop that and, he is doing so in the only way that he knows how:  With a con game.   It's what he does.  It's how he operates.

    But, his con is bound to fail (and it is) because it's based lies and deceit.
    But, you and the other right wingers can choose to blindly follow him if you wish. 
    The rest of the world is sticking to reality -- just as it did with climate change, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Huawei.


    avon b7
  • Reply 48 of 51
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 17,062member

    1,   Not to be questioned?   Maybe you SHOULD start questioning -- not only what you have been told on this point but on all the other things you've said.  They are based on lies, spin and propaganda, not fact.

    For the rest:   See #1 above.

    This reminds me of the old days when I used to debate jimmac.   You're not really making a point.  You're sort of just screaming "lies, propaganda!" and viewing everything through a partisan political lens.  You're also slyly engaging in ad hominem argument, albeit indirectly.  

    I'm really not interested in getting into a partisan debate or a debate focused on the President.  I'm more interested in assessing the China threat, which is one that people across the ideological spectrum have been writing about for over 20 years.  I've frankly ever encountered someone who would argue that China isn't engaged in espionage, IP theft, cheating at trade, hacking, forced tech transfers, a massive military buildup, expansionism, etc.  What I have seen is different approaches on how to deal with China.  For 30 years, our calculation was that increased trade with China would lead to economic development, and thereby a more free, peaceful China.  Well, there has been economic development...in China.  But our policies towards them have decimated our manufacturing industry.  Instead of growing more liberalized, China has tightened control and engaged in bellicose expansionism (see: Taiwan threats, South China Sea, 2001 midair collision as examples).  

    You can't possibly be arguing that the status quo is acceptable.  Are you?  And if not, what would you propose our China policy be?  


  • Reply 49 of 51
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 17,062member

    JWSC said:
    sdw2001 said:

    It's even bigger than that (China being fucked).  China depends on double digit economic growth.  Because they export so much, they need access to the world's largest economy (us).  The United States could, within a few years, completely disengage from China and still recover.  China would be decimated.   Chinese trade accounts for 2% of our economy, and U.S markets are 20% of theirs.  China is mostly blustering right now.  Behind closed doors, they are desperate for a deal.  
    And when China calls in all the US Debt it holds? What then? The US defaults on its loans? That would probably make the Yuan the worlds reserve currency.
    Well, in theory it could.  But how many banks out there would be willing to invest their assets in the Chinese yuan, a currency held by an authoritarian regime that isn’t exactly keen on transparency?  ...  Crickets chirping.
    With our $22 Trillion debt load and a Trillion $ annual deficit -- and no end in sight -- and Trump's & Republican casual attitude about defaulting on debts, I have to wonder why anybody would want our debt. 

    Currently, they obviously do.   But that change in a hurry and in a very big way.

    Frankly,  THAT is what we should be concerned about - not China.

    (Actually, as I understand it, China and most SE Asian countries have far better debt level than we do).

    They want our debt because the dollar is the world's reserve currency, and out overall economy is the envy of the world.  Moreover, only about 1/3 of the national debt is actually owed to foreign countries.  The rest is domestic, intergovernmental, etc.  The figure is somewhat misleading.  

    I don't agree that "Trump and the Republicans" have "casual attitude" about defaulting on debts.  I'm not sure if you're referencing Trump's casino bankruptcies in s snarky way?  I assume so.  In any case, we're not defaulting.  

    Now, I do agree that the deficit and debt are problems.  But as I've laid out previously, they aren't as a result of revenue reductions.  The deficit is caused by overspending.  Neither party seems to care about that, at least not at critical mass.  The more we continue this, the more expensive borrowing is going to get.  
  • Reply 50 of 51
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 5,147member
    sdw2001 said:

    1,   Not to be questioned?   Maybe you SHOULD start questioning -- not only what you have been told on this point but on all the other things you've said.  They are based on lies, spin and propaganda, not fact.

    For the rest:   See #1 above.

    This reminds me of the old days when I used to debate jimmac.   You're not really making a point.  You're sort of just screaming "lies, propaganda!" and viewing everything through a partisan political lens.  You're also slyly engaging in ad hominem argument, albeit indirectly.  

    I'm really not interested in getting into a partisan debate or a debate focused on the President.  I'm more interested in assessing the China threat, which is one that people across the ideological spectrum have been writing about for over 20 years.  I've frankly ever encountered someone who would argue that China isn't engaged in espionage, IP theft, cheating at trade, hacking, forced tech transfers, a massive military buildup, expansionism, etc.  What I have seen is different approaches on how to deal with China.  For 30 years, our calculation was that increased trade with China would lead to economic development, and thereby a more free, peaceful China.  Well, there has been economic development...in China.  But our policies towards them have decimated our manufacturing industry.  Instead of growing more liberalized, China has tightened control and engaged in bellicose expansionism (see: Taiwan threats, South China Sea, 2001 midair collision as examples).  

    You can't possibly be arguing that the status quo is acceptable.  Are you?  And if not, what would you propose our China policy be?  


    Partisan?   No,  not at all....
    Unless you consider being on the side of truth and American values partisan.

    But feel free to believe the guy who has told over 10,000 lies and is unable to back up any of his current claims with any evidence -- and call the rest of the world "partisan".   It's still, so far, a free country.
  • Reply 51 of 51
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 5,147member
    sdw2001 said:

    JWSC said:
    sdw2001 said:

    It's even bigger than that (China being fucked).  China depends on double digit economic growth.  Because they export so much, they need access to the world's largest economy (us).  The United States could, within a few years, completely disengage from China and still recover.  China would be decimated.   Chinese trade accounts for 2% of our economy, and U.S markets are 20% of theirs.  China is mostly blustering right now.  Behind closed doors, they are desperate for a deal.  
    And when China calls in all the US Debt it holds? What then? The US defaults on its loans? That would probably make the Yuan the worlds reserve currency.
    Well, in theory it could.  But how many banks out there would be willing to invest their assets in the Chinese yuan, a currency held by an authoritarian regime that isn’t exactly keen on transparency?  ...  Crickets chirping.
    With our $22 Trillion debt load and a Trillion $ annual deficit -- and no end in sight -- and Trump's & Republican casual attitude about defaulting on debts, I have to wonder why anybody would want our debt. 

    Currently, they obviously do.   But that change in a hurry and in a very big way.

    Frankly,  THAT is what we should be concerned about - not China.

    (Actually, as I understand it, China and most SE Asian countries have far better debt level than we do).

    They want our debt because the dollar is the world's reserve currency, and out overall economy is the envy of the world.  Moreover, only about 1/3 of the national debt is actually owed to foreign countries.  The rest is domestic, intergovernmental, etc.  The figure is somewhat misleading.  

    I don't agree that "Trump and the Republicans" have "casual attitude" about defaulting on debts.  I'm not sure if you're referencing Trump's casino bankruptcies in s snarky way?  I assume so.  In any case, we're not defaulting.  

    Now, I do agree that the deficit and debt are problems.  But as I've laid out previously, they aren't as a result of revenue reductions.  The deficit is caused by overspending.  Neither party seems to care about that, at least not at critical mass.  The more we continue this, the more expensive borrowing is going to get.  
    Trump and Republicans aren't casual about default?
    Not only has Trump used it for decades as a business tool to get himself out of difficult spots but he has suggested it for the U.S.   As for Republicans:   For the past 20 years they've toyed with and threatened default everytime the ludicrous debt limit comes up.  Prior to Obama they got the credit rating of the U.S. reduced because of such nonsense.

    The last one to produce a balanced budget was Clinton and the last one to reduce the deficit was Obama.   But the Republicans still manage to convince their followers that they are the party of fiscal responsibility.

    As for the deficit 'not being due to revenue reductions' -- that is laughable:
    Clinton turned over a balanced budget headed toward surplus.
    Bush cut taxes and turned it into a Trillion $ deficit.
    Obama cut Bush's deficit by more than half
    Trump cut taxes again and now it's back up to over a Trillion $ again.
    ....  Meanwhile there have been no substantial changes in spending.
    .... But Republicans keep blaming it on spending so the can justify gutting the so called "entitlements".

    Both cases are good examples of how Republicans and their right wing propaganda outlets spin the lies, repeat them and shout them over and over -- and eventually, to the followers, the lies become truth.
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