Kuo: iPhone 11 & Pro having strong launch, Apple will sell 75M iPhones in 2019

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited September 16
Apple analyst Ming Chi Kuo is looking at sell-out times to glean what he can from the first 72 hours of iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro sales, and likes what he sees both in the US and China.

iPhone 11 Pro at Apple's September 10 event
iPhone 11 Pro at Apple's September 10 event


In a research note seen by AppleInsider Kuo believes that the US market is purchasing more of the iPhone 11 Pro versus the iPhone 11. Kuo says that US consumers have the highest loyalty for the high-end of the iPhone lineup, benefit from a proliferation of trade-in programs, and have many zero-interest installment programs to exploit for the best pricing.

Regardless of the iPhone 11 Pro line reportedly doing better than the iPhone 11 in the US, demand is still strong for the lower-end model in the US market, Kuo says.

Kuo believes that demand for the iPhone 11 is stronger in China than in the US, though. In that region, Kuo is seeing the iPhone 11 as an "excellent upgrade choice" for the many iPhone 6 through iPhone 7 users that bought into the ecosystem when Apple launched sales in the country, and the pricing is driving sales of the model.

TF International Securities has increased its forecast of iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro in calendar year 2019 alone to between 70 million and 75 million units. This is an increase from the previous estimation of between 65 million and 70 million units. A big risk factor cited for this estimate is an escalation of the trade war, that will see tariffs placed on the iPhone on December 15.

Kuo believes that Apple's consumer-facing pricing isn't going to change as a result of the tariffs. He believes that Apple will choose to absorb the pricing taking a hit to profits, rather than increase them as a response to the tariffs -- a prediction perhaps borne out by Apple not increasing the price of the Apple Watch year-over-year.

Apple launched the iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro at its September 10 event. The iPhone 11 with a two-lens camera and a LCD display debuted for $699, $50 less than the 2018 iPhone XR. The iPhone 11 Pro line comes in at the same price as the iPhone XS did, with models retailing for as low as $999 for the iPhone Pro, and $1099 for the iPhone 11 Pro Max.
«1

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 39

    But, wait ... I thought this year's iPhone was just iterative, not "innovative" enough, and Apple was doomed to failure? What Universe is this????

    And I thought that Apple's design choice for the cameras were too fugly??? Seriously, I'm confused! Who is buying these amazing, fast, powerful, capable phones???
    edited September 15 ridyrattmayuraharabadmonklolliverbigpicsrundhvidequality72521chabigjahblade
  • Reply 2 of 39

    But, wait ... I thought this year's iPhone was just iterative, not "innovative" enough, and Apple was doomed to failure? What Universe is this????

    And I thought that Apple's design choice for the cameras were too fugly??? Seriously, I'm confused! Who is buying these amazing, fast, powerful, capable phones???
    The same analysts that are downgrading the stock I suspect.
    mejsricbadmonkwatto_cobra
  • Reply 3 of 39

    But, wait ... I thought this year's iPhone was just iterative, not "innovative" enough, and Apple was doomed to failure? What Universe is this????

    And I thought that Apple's design choice for the cameras were too fugly??? Seriously, I'm confused! Who is buying these amazing, fast, powerful, capable phones???
    The same analysts that are downgrading the stock I suspect.
    Buying opportunity.
    mejsricbadmonkwatto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 39
    iOS_Guy80 said:

    But, wait ... I thought this year's iPhone was just iterative, not "innovative" enough, and Apple was doomed to failure? What Universe is this????

    And I thought that Apple's design choice for the cameras were too fugly??? Seriously, I'm confused! Who is buying these amazing, fast, powerful, capable phones???
    The same analysts that are downgrading the stock I suspect.
    Buying opportunity.
    Openly blatant market manipulation.
    tmayStrangeDaysmejsricbadmonkAppleExposeddoctwelvewatto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 39
    wood1208wood1208 Posts: 2,027member
    You can be on either side arguing whether the iPhone 11/Pro/Max is innovative, iterative or just good timing for many iPhone and non-iPhone users need for upgrade. So, anticipated iPhone number can and will be right. .In fact, more to like in iPhone 11. With all iPhone deals going around, it will make it even better.
    badmonk
  • Reply 6 of 39
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 8,743member
    I'm not in the market for a new iPhone this year, but I like the look of those new cameras. Very industrial looking. Instead of trying to hide the lenses and make them low key, Apple is like, here they are, they kick ass, and we're not afraid to show them off.

    I know I'm supposed to hate the new cameras, according to various comments that I read online, but screw the haters and screw the low IQ sheep who are incapable of having their own thoughts. If they weren't hating on the cameras, then they'd be hating on something else. Their shtick has become very predictable, boring and played out by now.

    Phones have basically replaced the need for the average person to own a dedicated camera, that's been the case for many years now, and it only makes sense that cameras will continue to improve on phones, including having multiple lenses and more features.

    I have no idea what the sales figures are, I guess nobody besides Apple knows at this point, but I can see the new iPhones doing rather well too.
    badmonklollivertmayequality72521RonnnieOlkruppchabigjahbladekevin kee
  • Reply 7 of 39
    Iterative improvement is innovation. This stuff doesn’t re-engineer itself, the 20% processing gains at 4 hours less energy consumption is the definition of innovation. Sorry, no new Triangle Phone shell design.  

    $400 for my X is an amazing trade-in. Better than gazelle and ebay. That makes my X only $600, over two years interest free. Only a fool would argue against that. (Can you even imagine a cheap chinese knockoff reselling for this via a trade-in!? Nope). 

    Carry on, Apple, carry on. 
    flyingdpbadmonklolliverequality72521chabigjahbladewatto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 39
    wood1208 said:
    You can be on either side arguing whether the iPhone 11/Pro/Max is innovative, iterative or just good timing for many iPhone and non-iPhone users need for upgrade.
    It can be all: Innovative (on some aspects), iterative (on other aspects) and good timing for many users to buy.

    badmonklolliverwatto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 39
    I didn't think sales would be good for the new iPhones because of that China hates Apple thing some people say is going on. I also understand why Chinese consumers prefer buying domestically made smartphones. I figured many consumers in China would avoid buying iPhones just to spite POTUS. Of course, there is also the high price of iPhones which I think will deter many potential purchasers. I never believe it's lack of innovation or lack of features that have cut into iPhone sales. Many analysts are always saying it's not worth upgrading to a newer iPhone due to lack of innovation, but I doubt they even use an iPhone. I think all flagship smartphones are rather awesome so I don't see why some people are so critical about missing features. I would rather have a well-built, long lasting smartphone than just have a lot of what I would consider unnecesary features. That's just my personal opinion. I have nothing against Android smartphones as they certainly have their place in the smartphone market. It's hard to find a $200 iPhone, so if a person can't afford an iPhone they'll have to buy something else.
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 10 of 39
    Many analysts are always saying it's not worth upgrading to a newer iPhone due to lack of innovation...
    This argument might be true...depending on where you are on the phone ownership timeline currently.

    If you just bought last year, there may not be enough to compel you to upgrade (maybe unless you feel the need to always have the latest and greatest).

    So "worth" upgrading is a relative decision in most cases. The analysts making the above claim seem to miss this point.

    watto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 39
    iOS_Guy80 said:

    But, wait ... I thought this year's iPhone was just iterative, not "innovative" enough, and Apple was doomed to failure? What Universe is this????

    And I thought that Apple's design choice for the cameras were too fugly??? Seriously, I'm confused! Who is buying these amazing, fast, powerful, capable phones???
    The same analysts that are downgrading the stock I suspect.
    Buying opportunity.
    careful buying, another create bad news on monday.
  • Reply 12 of 39
    The people (loser/idiots/haters) who keep thinking iPhone sales will continue to drop don't have a clue.

    Based on the installed base and customer loyalty iPhone sales will "settle" at somewhere around 180 million or so a year if people upgrade every 4-5 years. What an absolutely terrible position to be in. /s
    canukstormlollivertmaychabigStrangeDayswatto_cobra
  • Reply 13 of 39
    bigpicsbigpics Posts: 1,382member
    iOS_Guy80 said:

    But, wait ... I thought this year's iPhone was just iterative, not "innovative" enough, and Apple was doomed to failure? What Universe is this????

    And I thought that Apple's design choice for the cameras were too fugly??? Seriously, I'm confused! Who is buying these amazing, fast, powerful, capable phones???
    The same analysts that are downgrading the stock I suspect.
    Buying opportunity.
    Can anyone tell me why Forbes seems to have such a particular grudge against Apple?

    They literally publish negative stories seven days a week most of the time - all predicting doom for the company and its products.

    It's comically bizarre that they maintain a strong readership despite almost never being right. 

    But I have been wondering about the genesis of their super slant. It just seems more than only a click bait journalistic thing....  ....did Steve Jobs once say something nasty about the publisher or what....???
    edited September 16 AppleExposedlolliverStrangeDayswatto_cobra
  • Reply 14 of 39
    AppleExposedAppleExposed Posts: 1,687unconfirmed, member
    If I'm reading this right he's going by "sold out" times.

    Apple could have sold out of 10 million or 50 million. So how did he arrive at that number?
    lolliver
  • Reply 15 of 39
    AppleExposedAppleExposed Posts: 1,687unconfirmed, member
    bigpics said:
    iOS_Guy80 said:

    But, wait ... I thought this year's iPhone was just iterative, not "innovative" enough, and Apple was doomed to failure? What Universe is this????

    And I thought that Apple's design choice for the cameras were too fugly??? Seriously, I'm confused! Who is buying these amazing, fast, powerful, capable phones???
    The same analysts that are downgrading the stock I suspect.
    Buying opportunity.
    Can anyone tell me why Forbes seems to have such a particular grudge against Apple?

    They literally publish negative stories seven days a week most of the time - all predicting doom for the company and its products.

    It's comically bizarre that they maintain a strong readership despite almost never being right. 

    But I have been wondering about the genesis of their super slant. It just seems more than only a click bait journalistic thing....  ....did Steve Jobs once say something nasty about the publisher or what....???

    Not just Forbes. Every damn publisher in the world besides a select few.
    lolliverbigpicsdoctwelvewatto_cobra
  • Reply 16 of 39

    I've pre-ordered the Silver iPhone 11 Pro Max. The more I see the pics, the more I'm convinced that it's the best looking one of the bunch.


    watto_cobra
  • Reply 17 of 39

    But, wait ... I thought this year's iPhone was just iterative, not "innovative" enough, and Apple was doomed to failure? What Universe is this????

    And I thought that Apple's design choice for the cameras were too fugly??? Seriously, I'm confused! Who is buying these amazing, fast, powerful, capable phones???
    Well I think it's kind of ugly. I'm buying it, the Pro, anyway. I'm in the eco-system so what else I'm gonna do? Put all my data on Google servers by going Android? Hell no!

    That said it doesn't matter that the camera is ugly but it DOES matter that the photo is beautiful and everything I saw point to it will be in fact very beautiful.

    Last year I sat it out and bought nothing. This year look like I'm gonna buy everything but the Mac lol.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 18 of 39
    tmaytmay Posts: 3,982member
    While the iPhone 11's might be missing 5G, and I'm fine with that for now, they do have an innovation in UWB;

    https://sixcolors.com/post/2019/09/the-u1-chip-in-the-iphone-11-is-the-beginning-of-an-ultra-wideband-revolution/

    As for the "look" of the Camera matrix on the Pro Max, I see function, and that's what I'm buying. I expect that we will grow attached to the "look".
    edited September 16 StrangeDayswatto_cobra
  • Reply 19 of 39
    19831983 Posts: 1,201member

    But, wait ... I thought this year's iPhone was just iterative, not "innovative" enough, and Apple was doomed to failure? What Universe is this????

    And I thought that Apple's design choice for the cameras were too fugly??? Seriously, I'm confused! Who is buying these amazing, fast, powerful, capable phones???
    It’s early days yet...
  • Reply 20 of 39

    I've pre-ordered the Silver iPhone 11 Pro Max. The more I see the pics, the more I'm convinced that it's the best looking one of the bunch.


    I was thinking the same thing. A couple of the camera lenses memes are hilarious though. 
    watto_cobra
Sign In or Register to comment.