Analysts raise forecasts on strong iPhone 11, iPhone 11 Pro sales

Posted:
in AAPL Investors
Apple's launches of the iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro range are doing better than analysts initially predicted, but investor excitement in the 2020 5G-equipped iPhone apparently continues to be far higher than the 2019 range.

iPhone 11


The iPhone 11, iPhone 11 Pro, and iPhone 11 Pro Max are selling more units than analysts at Cowen first thought, with the firm raising its near-term build estimates from September, putting production forecasts for the third calendar quarter at 47 million, down 2% year-on-year but up from the 44 million forecast in the prior month. This is still "relatively more conservative" than Cowen's sell-in forecast of 42.5 million, the investor note seen by AppleInsider reads.

Cowen believes the 3 million increase in the September quarter builds was due to the iPhone XR receiving a price reduction of $150. The firm also assumes 32 million units (68%) are allocated to the new models, with the remainder applying to versions spanning the iPhone 8 and X to iPhone XS to XR generations.

The strong sales comments echo those of other analysts, which have passed similar observations.

The fourth quarter build forecast remains unchanged at 65 million units, flat year-on-year, which it claims is "the lowest procurement level in the past four years." For that quarter, iPhone 11-generation models will account for 47 million units, or 72% of the product mix.

"We believe the lower year-on-year build plan may be intended to better control excess inventories going into 2020," writes Cowen. "Especially given the heightened channel inventory levels experienced post-holiday season for the past two years."

The sentiment for iPhone sales is also felt by JP Morgan, which raises its expectations for the September quarter by 1 million and for the December quarter by 3 million to "account for the stronger trends" led by the iPhone 11. The analysts expect investors to improve their prospects for Apple "given the firm's ability to drive upward revision to volume expectations despite the 2019 product cycle largely considered to be a muted one."

Calendar 2020 to 2021 volume expectations are also being increased, led by a "stronger adoption of 5G enabled iPhones" expected to launch in 2020. The "strong 2020 product cycle" will run to 198 million units, followed by 200 million in 2021.

"We expect solid consumer interest in 5G phones at the premium end of the North American market, and Apple is well positioned to drive an outsized share with its 2020 product cycle," writes JP Morgan.

An important part of sales for Apple is China, with Cowen seeing trade tensions between the US and China as "remaining fluid" with increased import tariffs and a 90-day delay in the technology export ban to Huawei. "We view the ongoing Huawei situation as a potential headwind for Apple's China business," Cowen writes, "though our field work also suggests negative Chinese consumer sentiment towards Apple products may be passing through the nadir."

JP Morgan has raised its price target for December 2020 to $265, from the December 2019 target of $243, but maintains an "Overweight" rating for Apple. Meanwhile Cowen's price target is $250, with an "Outperform" rating.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 17
    I do not track them but would not be surprised whether it would be the same ones projecting doom sales. Say "it is not important what we predict but that we predict and media eat it whole".
  • Reply 2 of 17
    These fools think too much about 5G. I haven’t seen anyone except geeks & industry nerds get excited about it. Maybe for IOT,medicine & cars its revolutionary ,but for phones I dont think it matters.
    Metriacanthosauruswatto_cobraAppleExposed
  • Reply 3 of 17
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,462member
    If we don’t believe them when they predict doom then why would we believe when they predict sunny skies?
    racerhomie3gatorguywatto_cobraAppleExposed
  • Reply 4 of 17
    Rayz2016Rayz2016 Posts: 4,788member
    lkrupp said:
    If we don’t believe them when they predict doom then why would we believe when they predict sunny skies?
    Exactly.

    edited September 30 watto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 17
    Today, Apple is doing another $1T market cap tease.  Up today and likely down tomorrow taking the $1T market cap with them.  Meanwhile, Microsoft is locked in at $1T with the greatest of ease, making Apple look somewhat weak and disoriented.  Thankfully, Apple has 3B less outstanding shares than Microsoft which means far fewer shares to pay out dividends to.

    It's somewhat strange how a few analysts lowered their forecast for Apple when they knew the iPhone 11 was selling at a brisk pace.
  • Reply 6 of 17
    lkrupp said:
    If we don’t believe them when they predict doom then why would we believe when they predict sunny skies?
    Because the reliability of their guesses don’t change objective reality. I’ll choose to believe it’s sunny when there is not a cloud in the sky, even if the analysts are telling me it’s raining.
    edited September 30 tmayStrangeDayswatto_cobraAppleExposed
  • Reply 7 of 17
    Today, Apple is doing another $1T market cap tease.  Up today and likely down tomorrow taking the $1T market cap with them.  Meanwhile, Microsoft is locked in at $1T with the greatest of ease, making Apple look somewhat weak and disoriented.  Thankfully, Apple has 3B less outstanding shares than Microsoft which means far fewer shares to pay out dividends to.

    It's somewhat strange how a few analysts lowered their forecast for Apple when they knew the iPhone 11 was selling at a brisk pace.
    Well to be fair the 11 doesn’t have 5G and the completely objective parties who are pushing, and will be profiting from, it assure them it’s super important.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 17
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,462member
    Today, Apple is doing another $1T market cap tease.  Up today and likely down tomorrow taking the $1T market cap with them.  Meanwhile, Microsoft is locked in at $1T with the greatest of ease, making Apple look somewhat weak and disoriented.  Thankfully, Apple has 3B less outstanding shares than Microsoft which means far fewer shares to pay out dividends to.

    It's somewhat strange how a few analysts lowered their forecast for Apple when they knew the iPhone 11 was selling at a brisk pace.
    Yours has got to be the most hilarious post of blathering nonsense I’ve ever had the misfortune to read. Apple looks “weak and disoriented”? Are you in some alternate or unknown multi-verse? Jesus H. Christ, Moses in the reeds, Gandhi in the Ganges, how do you people come up with this stuff. 
    edited September 30 StrangeDayswatto_cobraAppleExposed
  • Reply 9 of 17
    Improved sales are to be expected when Apple focuses on real practical features, “the best looking iPhone yet, that’s sooo thin”. No one cares, 0.2mm is tough to notice. 

    Solid update, hanging in for the 2020 iPhone. Really want Touch ID to return. 
    watto_cobralkrupp
  • Reply 10 of 17
    These fools think too much about 5G. I haven’t seen anyone except geeks & industry nerds get excited about it. Maybe for IOT,medicine & cars its revolutionary ,but for phones I dont think it matters.
    Definitely right. No one cares about 5G. And those that do, shouldn't.

    5G is another lame empty promise by the same people who brought you lame empty promises of 3G, 4G, and LTE.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks reached anything near their theoretical potential.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks reached respectable deployment coverage before being scrapped and abandoned in favor of the next thing.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks made cellular data any less limited, or expensive.

    What carriers should be doing is focusing on improving LTE coverage. LTE is more than good enough when you're in 5-bar territory. It isn't as good as Wi-Fi, and it doesn't have to be. Cellular just needs to bridge the gap between Wi-Fi Networks...no one should be relying it on. It is far too limited and expensive to be a serious primary service provider for anyone.

    But instead, because of this ridiculous network turn over, cellular data really hasn't improved for anyone since 3G. It is still used in the same way, for the same things, and it is very susceptible to poor coverage.
    StrangeDayswatto_cobraracerhomie3
  • Reply 11 of 17
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,462member
    These fools think too much about 5G. I haven’t seen anyone except geeks & industry nerds get excited about it. Maybe for IOT,medicine & cars its revolutionary ,but for phones I dont think it matters.
    Definitely right. No one cares about 5G. And those that do, shouldn't.

    5G is another lame empty promise by the same people who brought you lame empty promises of 3G, 4G, and LTE.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks reached anything near their theoretical potential.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks reached respectable deployment coverage before being scrapped and abandoned in favor of the next thing.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks made cellular data any less limited, or expensive.

    What carriers should be doing is focusing on improving LTE coverage. LTE is more than good enough when you're in 5-bar territory. It isn't as good as Wi-Fi, and it doesn't have to be. Cellular just needs to bridge the gap between Wi-Fi Networks...no one should be relying it on. It is far too limited and expensive to be a serious primary service provider for anyone.

    But instead, because of this ridiculous network turn over, cellular data really hasn't improved for anyone since 3G. It is still used in the same way, for the same things, and it is very susceptible to poor coverage.
    The health conspiracy theory crowd is already protesting the deployment of 5G because of alleged dangers from the radio frequencies involved. It will only get worse and all it will take is some misinformed jury in San Francisco to award billions of dollars to the “victims” of 5G signals. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 17
    Today, Apple is doing another $1T market cap tease.  Up today and likely down tomorrow taking the $1T market cap with them.  Meanwhile, Microsoft is locked in at $1T with the greatest of ease, making Apple look somewhat weak and disoriented. 
    Er, no, the buying habits of Wall Street investors and whether the stock re-obtains or remains at its historic trillion dollar market cap, do not make Apple look weak or disoriented. Having crummy products which didn’t sell well or generate much revenue or profit would. 
    watto_cobraAppleExposedracerhomie3
  • Reply 13 of 17

    lkrupp said:
    These fools think too much about 5G. I haven’t seen anyone except geeks & industry nerds get excited about it. Maybe for IOT,medicine & cars its revolutionary ,but for phones I dont think it matters.
    Definitely right. No one cares about 5G. And those that do, shouldn't.

    5G is another lame empty promise by the same people who brought you lame empty promises of 3G, 4G, and LTE.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks reached anything near their theoretical potential.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks reached respectable deployment coverage before being scrapped and abandoned in favor of the next thing.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks made cellular data any less limited, or expensive.

    What carriers should be doing is focusing on improving LTE coverage. LTE is more than good enough when you're in 5-bar territory. It isn't as good as Wi-Fi, and it doesn't have to be. Cellular just needs to bridge the gap between Wi-Fi Networks...no one should be relying it on. It is far too limited and expensive to be a serious primary service provider for anyone.

    But instead, because of this ridiculous network turn over, cellular data really hasn't improved for anyone since 3G. It is still used in the same way, for the same things, and it is very susceptible to poor coverage.
    The health conspiracy theory crowd is already protesting the deployment of 5G because of alleged dangers from the radio frequencies involved. It will only get worse and all it will take is some misinformed jury in San Francisco to award billions of dollars to the “victims” of 5G signals. 
    San Francisco? What on earth are you on about? Is that supposed to be some sort of conservative dig at the west coast? Hate to break it to ya pal but SF is where some of our best tech originates. 
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 14 of 17
    seankillseankill Posts: 492member

    lkrupp said:
    These fools think too much about 5G. I haven’t seen anyone except geeks & industry nerds get excited about it. Maybe for IOT,medicine & cars its revolutionary ,but for phones I dont think it matters.
    Definitely right. No one cares about 5G. And those that do, shouldn't.

    5G is another lame empty promise by the same people who brought you lame empty promises of 3G, 4G, and LTE.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks reached anything near their theoretical potential.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks reached respectable deployment coverage before being scrapped and abandoned in favor of the next thing.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks made cellular data any less limited, or expensive.

    What carriers should be doing is focusing on improving LTE coverage. LTE is more than good enough when you're in 5-bar territory. It isn't as good as Wi-Fi, and it doesn't have to be. Cellular just needs to bridge the gap between Wi-Fi Networks...no one should be relying it on. It is far too limited and expensive to be a serious primary service provider for anyone.

    But instead, because of this ridiculous network turn over, cellular data really hasn't improved for anyone since 3G. It is still used in the same way, for the same things, and it is very susceptible to poor coverage.
    The health conspiracy theory crowd is already protesting the deployment of 5G because of alleged dangers from the radio frequencies involved. It will only get worse and all it will take is some misinformed jury in San Francisco to award billions of dollars to the “victims” of 5G signals. 
    San Francisco? What on earth are you on about? Is that supposed to be some sort of conservative dig at the west coast? Hate to break it to ya pal but SF is where some of our best tech originates. 
    Homeless issues too from what I read
    edited September 30
  • Reply 15 of 17
    These fools think too much about 5G. I haven’t seen anyone except geeks & industry nerds get excited about it. Maybe for IOT,medicine & cars its revolutionary ,but for phones I dont think it matters.

    You underestimate apple's ability to generate a real buzz about it. Right now some OEMs and providers are talking about it; but it will only get traction for the general population when apple jumps in.
    AppleExposed
  • Reply 16 of 17
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 7,462member

    lkrupp said:
    These fools think too much about 5G. I haven’t seen anyone except geeks & industry nerds get excited about it. Maybe for IOT,medicine & cars its revolutionary ,but for phones I dont think it matters.
    Definitely right. No one cares about 5G. And those that do, shouldn't.

    5G is another lame empty promise by the same people who brought you lame empty promises of 3G, 4G, and LTE.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks reached anything near their theoretical potential.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks reached respectable deployment coverage before being scrapped and abandoned in favor of the next thing.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks made cellular data any less limited, or expensive.

    What carriers should be doing is focusing on improving LTE coverage. LTE is more than good enough when you're in 5-bar territory. It isn't as good as Wi-Fi, and it doesn't have to be. Cellular just needs to bridge the gap between Wi-Fi Networks...no one should be relying it on. It is far too limited and expensive to be a serious primary service provider for anyone.

    But instead, because of this ridiculous network turn over, cellular data really hasn't improved for anyone since 3G. It is still used in the same way, for the same things, and it is very susceptible to poor coverage.
    The health conspiracy theory crowd is already protesting the deployment of 5G because of alleged dangers from the radio frequencies involved. It will only get worse and all it will take is some misinformed jury in San Francisco to award billions of dollars to the “victims” of 5G signals. 
    San Francisco? What on earth are you on about? Is that supposed to be some sort of conservative dig at the west coast? Hate to break it to ya pal but SF is where some of our best tech originates. 
    Because California declares everything to cause cancer. Ever read those labels on products that state “The State of Californian has determined this product causes cancer”? Last time I checked San Francisco was till in California. Maybe not though.
    gatorguy
  • Reply 17 of 17
    AppleExposedAppleExposed Posts: 1,687unconfirmed, member
    These fools think too much about 5G. I haven’t seen anyone except geeks & industry nerds get excited about it. Maybe for IOT,medicine & cars its revolutionary ,but for phones I dont think it matters.

    It's like the HD hype of 2005.

    People brought home 720i TVs but watching 480p content and claiming "It looks so clear". By 2008 when HD gained traction, their crappy displays were out of date.



    lkrupp said:
    These fools think too much about 5G. I haven’t seen anyone except geeks & industry nerds get excited about it. Maybe for IOT,medicine & cars its revolutionary ,but for phones I dont think it matters.
    Definitely right. No one cares about 5G. And those that do, shouldn't.

    5G is another lame empty promise by the same people who brought you lame empty promises of 3G, 4G, and LTE.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks reached anything near their theoretical potential.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks reached respectable deployment coverage before being scrapped and abandoned in favor of the next thing.
    - Not one of the previous generation networks made cellular data any less limited, or expensive.

    What carriers should be doing is focusing on improving LTE coverage. LTE is more than good enough when you're in 5-bar territory. It isn't as good as Wi-Fi, and it doesn't have to be. Cellular just needs to bridge the gap between Wi-Fi Networks...no one should be relying it on. It is far too limited and expensive to be a serious primary service provider for anyone.

    But instead, because of this ridiculous network turn over, cellular data really hasn't improved for anyone since 3G. It is still used in the same way, for the same things, and it is very susceptible to poor coverage.
    The health conspiracy theory crowd is already protesting the deployment of 5G because of alleged dangers from the radio frequencies involved. It will only get worse and all it will take is some misinformed jury in San Francisco to award billions of dollars to the “victims” of 5G signals. 
    San Francisco? What on earth are you on about? Is that supposed to be some sort of conservative dig at the west coast? Hate to break it to ya pal but SF is where some of our best tech originates. 

    Health. That's what Californians especially northern, rally about.
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