This isn’t looking good. China has done a good job containing the virus (despite criticism) but it’s spread globally seems inevitable.
I’m particularly concerned about reports of patients having been cleared (after being infected) then having the virus being detected again later (and sick). What’s happening? Is the virus living on surfaces longer than expected and the persons coming in contact with it again? That doesn’t seem likely. Does the virus have the ability to go dormant in the body then have a resurgence? This would mean 2 weeks of isolation isn’t good enough. Also, all those temperature reading to determine if someone is infected doesn’t mean squat.
The flu has killed 14,000 people in the US this year, and sickened over 25 million. That's only in the US. Worldwide, the flu has killed nearly 1 million people this year.
In comparison, this has killed 2,462 people on the entire planets, no one in the US. There is no indication that healthy people with a normal immune system are at risk of death.
It's ( Influenza ) not reported like the Corona virus so people don't really care. For a lot of folks if Facebook or the news outlets say they should be scared, they are scared.
Not that long ago I made a post about how Apple was going to come crashing down, but the fanboys never believed. And now look at it...
This wasn't the reason you gave. Perhaps the right answer, but the wrong premise and logic.
I believe I made a general statement without any specifics. History always repeats itself in the stock market anyways. It’s nothing but a fool’s game that mainly the rich survive in.
Given the time the virus can live on some surfaces and the speed with which FedEx et alia can move goods around the world, I have to wonder if some of the mysterious occurrences with no known connection to a potential carrier might not be infections from handling a product packed a day or two before by an infected person.
By the way, today in pre-market trading there is another 5%+ drop in AAPL, so the whole market is collapsing. This is turning into another bloodbath like in 2008. Again, just pure panic based on nothing. I’m getting ready to make a large buy with my available cash.
I’ve got orders in at below the 6 month and 12 month lows for AAPL. This is really the time to bargain hunt. Panics are opportunities.
And I’m still not giving anyone financial advice here... do your own homework.
Not that long ago I made a post about how Apple was going to come crashing down, but the fanboys never believed. And now look at it...
This wasn't the reason you gave. Perhaps the right answer, but the wrong premise and logic.
I believe I made a general statement without any specifics. History always repeats itself in the stock market anyways. It’s nothing but a fool’s game that mainly the rich survive in.
I'd have to delve. There are sufficient prognostications of doom and gloom that they all blend together sometimes.
Not that long ago I made a post about how Apple was going to come crashing down, but the fanboys never believed. And now look at it...
It hasn't come crashing down yet, but it will soon enough. Expect it to drop below $200 within a few weeks. By May 1, it should be around $150, once Apple reports their quarterly numbers for 2020 Q2.
Given the time the virus can live on some surfaces and the speed with which FedEx et alia can move goods around the world, I have to wonder if some of the mysterious occurrences with no known connection to a potential carrier might not be infections from handling a product packed a day or two before by an infected person.
I totally agree with this. It's absolutely possible that the new cases of Covid-19 found in Washington State, Oregon, and California may be people who recently received packages from China or South Korea. In fact, I mentioned it on Apple Insider two weeks ago, and I was ridiculed for that assumption because according to the experts who frequent this forum, coronaviruses do not survive on surfaces for more than a few minutes. Lo and behold, Covid-19 can survive on surfaces for as long as 9 days, and most likely even longer.
So, again, are you guys courageous enough to buy an iPhone to be made in China soon (if Foxconn ever fixes the supply chains and starts making iPhones again)? Personally, I will stay away from anything made in China for a long time.
Not that long ago I made a post about how Apple was going to come crashing down, but the fanboys never believed. And now look at it...
It hasn't come crashing down yet, but it will soon enough. Expect it to drop below $200 within a few weeks. By May 1, it should be around $150, once Apple reports their quarterly numbers for 2020 Q2.
Maybe below $200, but I profoundly doubt $150.
There is a rest of the world, you know, and they are buying and subscribing to services.
While it's possible that the Washington State, Oregon, and California cases are packages from China or South Korea, it isn't likely. Way, way, way more likely is contagion from the guy who wasn't quarantined well, and sent through two hospitals before they figured it out.
This isn’t looking good. China has done a good job containing the virus (despite criticism) but it’s spread globally seems inevitable.
I’m particularly concerned about reports of patients having been cleared (after being infected) then having the virus being detected again later (and sick). What’s happening? Is the virus living on surfaces longer than expected and the persons coming in contact with it again? That doesn’t seem likely. Does the virus have the ability to go dormant in the body then have a resurgence? This would mean 2 weeks of isolation isn’t good enough. Also, all those temperature reading to determine if someone is infected doesn’t mean squat.
The flu has killed 14,000 people in the US this year, and sickened over 25 million. That's only in the US. Worldwide, the flu has killed nearly 1 million people this year.
In comparison, this has killed 2,462 people on the entire planets, no one in the US. There is no indication that healthy people with a normal immune system are at risk of death.
A few things to consider (which I am sure you haven't forgotten): 1. The infection rate of this new virus seems to be problematic compare to general flu: it's easily transmittable with a longer days of asymptomatic than flu. You might feel well for up to a a week, but you aren't sure if you were a carrier for several days and how many people you have been in contact with, or office workers you interacted with or any door knobs that you touched. Not to sound like a scare-monger, but at the moment, that's the fact on how this virus is so readily spread. 2. Once you get infected, you will most likely develop respiratory diseases. At this point it's all up to your body immune system - nothing in this world can help you. You will generally get flu-like maladies including high fever and bad cough. Less resistance body will have to develop deadly pneumonia. A few hundred of these are fine, but if hospital have to start providing oxygen support to thousands, there will be huge infrastructure and labor problem. 3. The number of mortality numbers does not count how new is this virus - it has not yet spread to the whole world population like flu and hasn't been around for long. It's only 3 months and with the death toll of around 2500, it puts a scary perspective if you think that the world population is 8 billion. A 2% of 8 billion, we are looking for a death toll of 160 million people.
Not that long ago I made a post about how Apple was going to come crashing down, but the fanboys never believed. And now look at it...
It hasn't come crashing down yet, but it will soon enough. Expect it to drop below $200 within a few weeks. By May 1, it should be around $150, once Apple reports their quarterly numbers for 2020 Q2.
Maybe below $200, but I profoundly doubt $150.
There is a rest of the world, you know, and they are buying and subscribing to services.
While it's possible that the Washington State, Oregon, and California cases are packages from China or South Korea, it isn't likely. Way, way, way more likely is contagion from the guy who wasn't quarantined well, and sent through two hospitals before they figured it out.
What Mike ^said^. At least on the contagion part.
As far as the stock price, that's purely speculative. And I'd say the same thing about my own predictions. Though to be fair, I'm a long-term holder of quite a bit of AAPL (from as far back as single-digit pre-split days), with a good track record so far (knock on wood!), and leading into this health issue I sold a chunk of my holdings in several batches, most above $320, but a bit as low as around $290. Lucky? Maybe, but this drop seemed pretty obvious to me.
It looks like Monday's pre-market is up around $10 at the moment, but as of right now I'm sitting tight. I do expect further declines as the markets continue to digest the economic fallout from the coronavirus, which is about to pick up steam in the US. While I've historically been a buyer of dips, right now I'm more likely to be a seller of these upswings for a while. With the intent of buying back in later this year.
My moves have little to do with Apple, its products, or its execution, simply a matter of global economics, and the fact that I own more AAPL than anything else. That, and AAPL is more susceptible to impact because of it's luxury brand status and because of its world-wide exposure on both the supply and demand sides. They're extremely well managed and will eventually get their supply chains under control, but the demand side, IMO, will take longer. I want some dry powder.
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*I do not provide buy/sell advice. I’m not responsible for anyone buying or selling stock based on what they read here.
I’ve got orders in at below the 6 month and 12 month lows for AAPL. This is really the time to bargain hunt. Panics are opportunities.
And I’m still not giving anyone financial advice here... do your own homework.
I totally agree with this. It's absolutely possible that the new cases of Covid-19 found in Washington State, Oregon, and California may be people who recently received packages from China or South Korea. In fact, I mentioned it on Apple Insider two weeks ago, and I was ridiculed for that assumption because according to the experts who frequent this forum, coronaviruses do not survive on surfaces for more than a few minutes. Lo and behold, Covid-19 can survive on surfaces for as long as 9 days, and most likely even longer.
So, again, are you guys courageous enough to buy an iPhone to be made in China soon (if Foxconn ever fixes the supply chains and starts making iPhones again)? Personally, I will stay away from anything made in China for a long time.
There is a rest of the world, you know, and they are buying and subscribing to services.
While it's possible that the Washington State, Oregon, and California cases are packages from China or South Korea, it isn't likely. Way, way, way more likely is contagion from the guy who wasn't quarantined well, and sent through two hospitals before they figured it out.
1. The infection rate of this new virus seems to be problematic compare to general flu: it's easily transmittable with a longer days of asymptomatic than flu. You might feel well for up to a a week, but you aren't sure if you were a carrier for several days and how many people you have been in contact with, or office workers you interacted with or any door knobs that you touched. Not to sound like a scare-monger, but at the moment, that's the fact on how this virus is so readily spread.
2. Once you get infected, you will most likely develop respiratory diseases. At this point it's all up to your body immune system - nothing in this world can help you. You will generally get flu-like maladies including high fever and bad cough. Less resistance body will have to develop deadly pneumonia. A few hundred of these are fine, but if hospital have to start providing oxygen support to thousands, there will be huge infrastructure and labor problem.
3. The number of mortality numbers does not count how new is this virus - it has not yet spread to the whole world population like flu and hasn't been around for long. It's only 3 months and with the death toll of around 2500, it puts a scary perspective if you think that the world population is 8 billion. A 2% of 8 billion, we are looking for a death toll of 160 million people.