Panicked selling of AAPL lets Apple buy back billions cheaply

245

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 97
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,469member

    gatorguy said:
    FWIW six months ago the same author wrote this:
    "But why is Apple buying back shares seemingly regardless of their price? It appears clear that Apple expects its share price to grow much higher in the future. So rather than carefully timing its repurchases to only occur when the stock price hits its lowest levels, Apple continues to buy shares back nearly as fast as it can all the time, even as the stock price jumps up and down as it continues to increment higher."

    As for jumping on this unexpectedly low stock price I would assume that at the moment Apple would be in one of their "blackout periods" where they are not permitted to buy back stock except under a predefined/prearranged schedule that ignores what the stock price is at a point in time and instead picks a date for the transaction to occur. Of course they are not obligated to complete a pre-scheduled buyback, they can choose to hold on to the cash instead, but they also can't create one at their whim during a blackout period. Have I got that right?
    That previous quote is correct. It's also compatible with this article. 

    This article isn't saying that Apple is suddenly now "carefully timing its repurchases to only occur when the stock price hits its lowest levels." It pretty clearly said the current "drop affords Apple a rare opportunity to snatch up billions of its shares at a discount nobody could have otherwise imagined possible."

    You and others taking issue with what I wrote are forgetting that in being ready to buy back shares at all times, Apple automatically takes advantage of dips as they occur. Over time, Apple's share price continues to go up. This is a dip along the way, as is already evident today. Apple is not still at $260 where it bottomed this morning. It's already up 5%. Apple has ~$18 billion to spend of its last buy back allocation.   

    Why are you assuming that Apple is in a blackout period? Establish that first. 
    There was a negative guidance adjustment notice, a sudden material change, just a few days ago which I think qualifies for a blackout period. If you disagree why?

    EDIT: A two week blackout based on the sudden change in guidance would not seem unexpected. That would run up to the two-week blackout prior to the next fiscal report with only a few days in between. Prearranged buybacks would of course be okay but not spur-of-the-moment. Perhaps you could ask someone at Apple who would know? 
    edited February 2020 muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 22 of 97
    This all makes sense if this were an Apple issue and not a global economy issue.  Personally, I expect the market to keep dropping until some good news about Covid-19 starts appearing.  It doesn't matter if Apple can make iPhones if there are economy-wide layoffs crushing the demand for iStuff.
    This market was long over due for a correction, I don't think a threat from Covid-19 has much to do with it. Personally I think we had too many bubbles this cycle, Tesla, Beyond Meat, Virgin Galactic.

    I think Apple's buy backs are pre-planned and can't take advantage of dips like this and any good timing or bad timing is just averaged out.
    Re: “buy backs are pre-planned”
    Companies get approval from their shareholders to buy back shares (or sell them). I don’t know what Apple’s plan looks like or the numbers offhand.  But, let’s say they get authorization to buy back $50 billion in shares.  

    Apple then will buy back the shares when they think the stock is undervalued... so like now.  When Apple runs through the $50 billion (or whenever) they go back and get approval to do it again.  Bottom line, Apple is prepared to take advantage.  Large companies game the system.  Apple could also use the panic to acquire other companies in a weaker position (that aren’t able to raise cash).

    Large companies are inherently advantaged, and usually only face difficulty if they’re poorly run and face fundamental shifts in their business.  For example, IBM with mainframes. Or, RIM (Blackberry) with smartphones.  

    With taxes the advantages are most easily identified. Amazon (for example) pays no taxes.  Ironically, Amazon’s #1 enemy President Trump doesn’t either.

    Ever wonder why Facebook bought Oculus? Or, why Google buys or invests all over the place?  It’s to write the R&D loses off...  It’s why you and me take risks that can blow up in our face, but large companies just get larger.


  • Reply 23 of 97
    hexclockhexclock Posts: 1,076member
    sirozha said:
    mdirvin said:
    The whole trick is timing.  I bought a bit early Dec. 2018, but still made over 450K.  I'm thinking its still a bit early we have several more legs down, maybe.  Who really knows you just take  your best guess and go with it.  I would ask my 3 year old grandson but he's a few states over right now. I could get as good of advice from him as I any of the "Experts".

    Mike
    Mike, there's this new invention called "telephone". It's very cool. You can talk to people miles away; sometimes even in another city. Soon, you will be able to speak to your grandson who is 3 states away. Actually, Apple makes a few of these new amazing devices; they call it iPhone. 
    So after you spew out a long post filled with abject speculation, with no actual factual evidence, you come back with a pointless, sarcastic attack on Mike for no apparent reason.

    StrangeDaysdedgeckofastasleeppscooter63lolliver
  • Reply 24 of 97
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,811member
    gatorguy said:

    gatorguy said:
    FWIW six months ago the same author wrote this:
    "But why is Apple buying back shares seemingly regardless of their price? It appears clear that Apple expects its share price to grow much higher in the future. So rather than carefully timing its repurchases to only occur when the stock price hits its lowest levels, Apple continues to buy shares back nearly as fast as it can all the time, even as the stock price jumps up and down as it continues to increment higher."

    As for jumping on this unexpectedly low stock price I would assume that at the moment Apple would be in one of their "blackout periods" where they are not permitted to buy back stock except under a predefined/prearranged schedule that ignores what the stock price is at a point in time and instead picks a date for the transaction to occur. Of course they are not obligated to complete a pre-scheduled buyback, they can choose to hold on to the cash instead, but they also can't create one at their whim during a blackout period. Have I got that right?
    That previous quote is correct. It's also compatible with this article. 

    This article isn't saying that Apple is suddenly now "carefully timing its repurchases to only occur when the stock price hits its lowest levels." It pretty clearly said the current "drop affords Apple a rare opportunity to snatch up billions of its shares at a discount nobody could have otherwise imagined possible."

    You and others taking issue with what I wrote are forgetting that in being ready to buy back shares at all times, Apple automatically takes advantage of dips as they occur. Over time, Apple's share price continues to go up. This is a dip along the way, as is already evident today. Apple is not still at $260 where it bottomed this morning. It's already up 5%. Apple has ~$18 billion to spend of its last buy back allocation.   

    Why are you assuming that Apple is in a blackout period? Establish that first. 
    There was a negative guidance adjustment notice just a few days ago which I think qualifies for a blackout period. If you disagree why?
    I don't think a blackout period would legally override an existing schedule for stock buybacks. You especially have stated in the past that buybacks appear to have no correlation with the current stock price, so why would a blackout period effect that, assuming that there even was a blackout period in place?
    edited February 2020 lolliver
  • Reply 25 of 97

    I think Apple's buy backs are pre-planned and can't take advantage of dips like this and any good timing or bad timing is just averaged out.
    On that front, you are misinformed. There are quite a few statements from the CFO, at past shareholder meetings, clearly stating instances of accelerated buyback. In all cases, the justification about the surge of buybacks (beyond the pre-planned scope) was attributed to market opportunities. Just like now.
    lolliver
  • Reply 26 of 97
    It’s DED doing damage control. Putting a positive spin on a terrible situation. Although I doubt all of this panic is due to Apple and not other factors going on and Apple just happened to sustain collateral damage from everything else. They were one of the first companies to warn us about the effects of quarantine and how it will affect the supply chain for current and future products that are ready to be announced. 
    DED should definitely add a disclaimer to pieces like this. I’m just shy of positively sure that he’s, on the record, as owner of APPL stock. I think I heard him on the podcast, a couple of years ago.

    So yes, he may be laying it out on his own best interests. But what he says is fundamentally true.
  • Reply 27 of 97
    larryjw said:
    There’s no media induced panic. It is more like computer algorithm triggered panic selling that explains stock drops.

    Why anyone would sell due to the Coronavirus is beyond me. If you buy stocks long, why would this disease outbreak affect your stock holdings?

    if you had unrealized gain from Apple stock, why sell now; losing on the downside value of the stock today, and paying 15% capital gains tax in addition. 
    I sold a little less then half my AAPL at $310 last week as I saw this coming from non-traditional media sources. I expect to buy back around $225 or even in the 100’s range as this gets a lot worse. Which unfortunately it will in my opinion.  I don’t mind paying cap gains if I can get a bargain. Assuming I survive this. 
  • Reply 28 of 97
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,469member
    tmay said:
    gatorguy said:

    gatorguy said:
    FWIW six months ago the same author wrote this:
    "But why is Apple buying back shares seemingly regardless of their price? It appears clear that Apple expects its share price to grow much higher in the future. So rather than carefully timing its repurchases to only occur when the stock price hits its lowest levels, Apple continues to buy shares back nearly as fast as it can all the time, even as the stock price jumps up and down as it continues to increment higher."

    As for jumping on this unexpectedly low stock price I would assume that at the moment Apple would be in one of their "blackout periods" where they are not permitted to buy back stock except under a predefined/prearranged schedule that ignores what the stock price is at a point in time and instead picks a date for the transaction to occur. Of course they are not obligated to complete a pre-scheduled buyback, they can choose to hold on to the cash instead, but they also can't create one at their whim during a blackout period. Have I got that right?
    That previous quote is correct. It's also compatible with this article. 

    This article isn't saying that Apple is suddenly now "carefully timing its repurchases to only occur when the stock price hits its lowest levels." It pretty clearly said the current "drop affords Apple a rare opportunity to snatch up billions of its shares at a discount nobody could have otherwise imagined possible."

    You and others taking issue with what I wrote are forgetting that in being ready to buy back shares at all times, Apple automatically takes advantage of dips as they occur. Over time, Apple's share price continues to go up. This is a dip along the way, as is already evident today. Apple is not still at $260 where it bottomed this morning. It's already up 5%. Apple has ~$18 billion to spend of its last buy back allocation.   

    Why are you assuming that Apple is in a blackout period? Establish that first. 
    There was a negative guidance adjustment notice just a few days ago which I think qualifies for a blackout period. If you disagree why?
    I don't think a blackout period would legally override an existing schedule for stock buybacks. 
    It wouldn't and that's exactly what I said. Read my post again. 
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 29 of 97
    I don’t think that’s how stock buybacks work. If they could buy more AAPL any time the stock took a hit they’d be incentivized to pile on with negative news to drive down the stock, just like short sellers. It’s my understanding these stock repurchases are pre-timed and have nothing to do with market fluctuations.
    I am pretty sure Apple does buy opportunistically. They have been on record as having done so.

    There are other quite powerful incentives that prevent them from lying to shareholders in order to drive the price down. That is just as illegal as lying to drive the price up.
  • Reply 30 of 97
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,811member
    gatorguy said:
    tmay said:
    gatorguy said:

    gatorguy said:
    FWIW six months ago the same author wrote this:
    "But why is Apple buying back shares seemingly regardless of their price? It appears clear that Apple expects its share price to grow much higher in the future. So rather than carefully timing its repurchases to only occur when the stock price hits its lowest levels, Apple continues to buy shares back nearly as fast as it can all the time, even as the stock price jumps up and down as it continues to increment higher."

    As for jumping on this unexpectedly low stock price I would assume that at the moment Apple would be in one of their "blackout periods" where they are not permitted to buy back stock except under a predefined/prearranged schedule that ignores what the stock price is at a point in time and instead picks a date for the transaction to occur. Of course they are not obligated to complete a pre-scheduled buyback, they can choose to hold on to the cash instead, but they also can't create one at their whim during a blackout period. Have I got that right?
    That previous quote is correct. It's also compatible with this article. 

    This article isn't saying that Apple is suddenly now "carefully timing its repurchases to only occur when the stock price hits its lowest levels." It pretty clearly said the current "drop affords Apple a rare opportunity to snatch up billions of its shares at a discount nobody could have otherwise imagined possible."

    You and others taking issue with what I wrote are forgetting that in being ready to buy back shares at all times, Apple automatically takes advantage of dips as they occur. Over time, Apple's share price continues to go up. This is a dip along the way, as is already evident today. Apple is not still at $260 where it bottomed this morning. It's already up 5%. Apple has ~$18 billion to spend of its last buy back allocation.   

    Why are you assuming that Apple is in a blackout period? Establish that first. 
    There was a negative guidance adjustment notice just a few days ago which I think qualifies for a blackout period. If you disagree why?
    I don't think a blackout period would legally override an existing schedule for stock buybacks. 
    It wouldn't and that's exactly what I said. Read my post again. 
    My apologies, I should have read your previous post. You are quite correct.
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 31 of 97
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,469member
    tmay said:
    gatorguy said:
    tmay said:
    gatorguy said:

    gatorguy said:
    FWIW six months ago the same author wrote this:
    "But why is Apple buying back shares seemingly regardless of their price? It appears clear that Apple expects its share price to grow much higher in the future. So rather than carefully timing its repurchases to only occur when the stock price hits its lowest levels, Apple continues to buy shares back nearly as fast as it can all the time, even as the stock price jumps up and down as it continues to increment higher."

    As for jumping on this unexpectedly low stock price I would assume that at the moment Apple would be in one of their "blackout periods" where they are not permitted to buy back stock except under a predefined/prearranged schedule that ignores what the stock price is at a point in time and instead picks a date for the transaction to occur. Of course they are not obligated to complete a pre-scheduled buyback, they can choose to hold on to the cash instead, but they also can't create one at their whim during a blackout period. Have I got that right?
    That previous quote is correct. It's also compatible with this article. 

    This article isn't saying that Apple is suddenly now "carefully timing its repurchases to only occur when the stock price hits its lowest levels." It pretty clearly said the current "drop affords Apple a rare opportunity to snatch up billions of its shares at a discount nobody could have otherwise imagined possible."

    You and others taking issue with what I wrote are forgetting that in being ready to buy back shares at all times, Apple automatically takes advantage of dips as they occur. Over time, Apple's share price continues to go up. This is a dip along the way, as is already evident today. Apple is not still at $260 where it bottomed this morning. It's already up 5%. Apple has ~$18 billion to spend of its last buy back allocation.   

    Why are you assuming that Apple is in a blackout period? Establish that first. 
    There was a negative guidance adjustment notice just a few days ago which I think qualifies for a blackout period. If you disagree why?
    I don't think a blackout period would legally override an existing schedule for stock buybacks. 
    It wouldn't and that's exactly what I said. Read my post again. 
    My apologies, I should have read your previous post. You are quite correct.
    No problem. I've been known to misread a post on occasion too.
    muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 32 of 97
    sirozha said:
    Apparently, DED holds a large position in AAPL. How does he know that Apple is buying shares for cheap right now? The supply chains are completely disrupted or decimated. It’s very possible that to restore the manufacturing capabilities, Apple will need to move manufacturing out of China. Foxconn can’t do it on their own. Apple will have to pay for a large portion of moving manufacturing out of China. Apple’s sales this year will be low compared to previous years due the problems with supply chains and lower demand. Additionally, it appears that the super cycle based on 5G is not going to happen in 2020 because of the Coronavirus delaying iPhone 12 but also because the deployment of 5G largely stalled all over the world. 

    In these kind of conditions, it would be completely stupid of Tim Cook to throw cash reserves at stock buy backs. The whole reason behind Steve Jobs’ building the stash of cash was to enable Apple to survive a calamity that would destroy other businesses. Coronavirus has a very good chantce of becoming this calamity. Apple will need cash to keep paying their employees and not laying them off. Apple will need cash to set up new supply chains and assembly facilities outside of China, run their data centers, pay rent on their stores worldwide, donate to the Trump campaign to prevent a socialist from winning the next Presidential election and splitting up Apple, etc. 

    Blowing cash on buybacks to keep AAPL afloat so that DED’s portfolio would look not as bad should be the least of Tim Cook’s concerns now, and  I’m 99% positive that this is not what Apple is doing during this market correction. 
    You clearly have no idea what is going on and how $AAPL functions / fluctuates with market sentiment. Go lurk on PED’s Apple 3.0, or read posts from the last decade to get up to speed a little quicker.

    Additionally, there will be no 5G supercycle, because supercycles are fictional events only discovered after they occurred.  There will be no 5G iphone this year. Why!?  Because there’s no acceptable 5G networks that the 250 million iPhones that will be purchased this year can use... okay, you’re right, they won’t sell 250 million top of the line iPhones. The networks wouldn’t be able to support the 100 million top of the line iPhones Apple will sell between 2020 and 2021. 

    Thanks for the post DED (@corrections)!  Spot on per the usual!  Sacto Joe usually claims a blackout period any time Apple talks or its close to their quarterly report out. He and a gang of folks (again from Apple3.0) that went to the Annual Investors Meeting tried to ask a question related to buy-back timing, but unfortunately weren’t able to ask it. They simply weren’t picked for a question. 

    Edited to add comments on 5G - ROLMFAO
    edited February 2020 pscooter63lolliverBart Y
  • Reply 33 of 97
    knowitallknowitall Posts: 1,648member
    Apple seems to act like a national bank, buying its currency to keep devaluation low.
    I think this situation shows that it is not wise to be dependent on one area and country for your products.
    A company like Tesla is doing it the modern way, positioning its production in several distinct areas in the words (the U.S.A. being one of them) to combat all sorts of problems concerning one area.
    I would adapt Apples policy regarding this immediately and start building factories on US soil immediately, using the 100 billion or so for this years share buybacks that are effectively the same as burning the money.
    Apple should think big again, maybe look at Tesla what that means.
  • Reply 34 of 97
    carnegiecarnegie Posts: 1,007member
    gatorguy said:
    FWIW six months ago the same author wrote this:
    "But why is Apple buying back shares seemingly regardless of their price? It appears clear that Apple expects its share price to grow much higher in the future. So rather than carefully timing its repurchases to only occur when the stock price hits its lowest levels, Apple continues to buy shares back nearly as fast as it can all the time, even as the stock price jumps up and down as it continues to increment higher."

    As for jumping on this unexpectedly low stock price I would assume that at the moment Apple would be in one of their "blackout periods" where they are not permitted to buy back stock except under a predefined/prearranged schedule that ignores what the stock price is at a point in time and instead picks a date for the transaction to occur. Of course they are not obligated to complete a pre-scheduled buyback, they can choose to hold on to the cash instead, but they also can't create one at their whim during a blackout period. Have I got that right?
    Even if Apple has a self-imposed blackout period where it doesn't buy back shares, it likely isn't in that period now. Apple routinely buys back large numbers of shares during the last 4 weeks of its quarters, and we aren't even in the last 4 weeks yet. Also, the last time Apple issued a guidance revision it bought back a substantial number of shares between when it issued that revision and when it reported earnings.

    Also, a Rule 10b5-1 Trading Plan doesn't have to ignore the stock price. It can pick specific dates on which shares will be bought or sold. But it can also specify prices at which they will be bought or sold. It can even specify that X number of shares will be bought if the share price drops Y% from a peak. The plan just has to be, speaking practically, self-executing - it has to provide an algorithm which determines when or for how much shares are bought or sold. It can't require further decision making from someone who, at that point, has material non-public information. Whoever does the buying or selling just follows the rules set forth in the plan.

    Apple could also give someone - e.g., a broker - the authority to make decisions about when to buy or sell shares based on changing circumstances so long as that person doesn't have material non-public information. They might be told to buy shares as efficiently as they can - e.g., when there are price dips. So longs as they are making the decisions about individual buys and they don't have material non-public information, Apple isn't opening itself up to insider trading accusations.

    All that said, it is all but certain that Apple at all times - not just, e.g., near the end of quarters - either buys back shares in accordance with a trading plan or has someone making the short-term buyback decisions who is effectively firewalled from any material non-public information.
    randominternetpersonlolliverFileMakerFeller
  • Reply 35 of 97
    knowitall said:
    Apple seems to act like a national bank, buying its currency to keep devaluation low.
    I think this situation shows that it is not wise to be dependent on one area and country for your products.
    A company like Tesla is doing it the modern way, positioning its production in several distinct areas in the words (the U.S.A. being one of them) to combat all sorts of problems concerning one area.
    I would adapt Apples policy regarding this immediately and start building factories on US soil immediately, using the 100 billion or so for this years share buybacks that are effectively the same as burning the money.
    Apple should think big again, maybe look at Tesla what that means.
    Apple has been doing this longer and better than $TSLA. This strategy is long-term, decades out. 

    DED, you sure do bring out the crazies.
    randominternetpersonStrangeDaysSpamSandwichlolliverBart Y
  • Reply 36 of 97
    sirozha said:
    mdirvin said:
    The whole trick is timing.  I bought a bit early Dec. 2018, but still made over 450K.  I'm thinking its still a bit early we have several more legs down, maybe.  Who really knows you just take  your best guess and go with it.  I would ask my 3 year old grandson but he's a few states over right now. I could get as good of advice from him as I any of the "Experts".

    Mike
    Mike, there's this new invention called "telephone". It's very cool. You can talk to people miles away; sometimes even in another city. Soon, you will be able to speak to your grandson who is 3 states away. Actually, Apple makes a few of these new amazing devices; they call it iPhone. 

    Thanks for the timely advice.  I did give him a call just after he finished his morning nap.   He suggested I hold off for a another month for the smoke to clear. 

    Mike
    edited February 2020 fastasleeplolliverFileMakerFeller
  • Reply 37 of 97
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,811member
    knowitall said:
    Apple seems to act like a national bank, buying its currency to keep devaluation low.
    I think this situation shows that it is not wise to be dependent on one area and country for your products.
    A company like Tesla is doing it the modern way, positioning its production in several distinct areas in the words (the U.S.A. being one of them) to combat all sorts of problems concerning one area.
    I would adapt Apples policy regarding this immediately and start building factories on US soil immediately, using the 100 billion or so for this years share buybacks that are effectively the same as burning the money.
    Apple should think big again, maybe look at Tesla what that means.
    Let me know when Tesla generates a profit, and also, let me know who actually owns GF3 in China, because it sure looks quite like China owns it, and GF1 isn't anywhere close to operating in Fremont as efficiently as most of the majors are in the various countries that they also operate in.

    Apple building factories at all is generally a bad idea.
    edited February 2020 StrangeDayslolliverBart Y
  • Reply 38 of 97
    mpantonempantone Posts: 1,934member
    I don’t think that’s how stock buybacks work. If they could buy more AAPL any time the stock took a hit they’d be incentivized to pile on with negative news to drive down the stock, just like short sellers. It’s my understanding these stock repurchases are pre-timed and have nothing to do with market fluctuations.
    There are multiple ways of executing a stock buyback.

    One is the tender offer; this entails a buyback offer to shareholders. There's an application process, sorting processing, and ultimately some but not necessarily all of the tender offers are approved. This method requires notification in written form.

    Another method is the Accelerated Share Repurchase (ASR) which is executed by a brokerage. The company buying back its shares needs to advance the cash to the brokerage and a forward contract is written up to outline terms (price, quantity, etc.). This is generally faster than the tender offer and the pricing can be more carefully controlled.

    A third method is open market. That's right, the company buys back its own shares on its own. The challenge with this one is that often the open market repurchase will cause the share price to climb rapidly due to the smaller float and the increased value of the outstanding shares. This is more easily executed than the previous two methods but it is beneficial to have the cash on hand. Of course, the share price can change rapidly.

    This past week's market conditions were ideal for an open market stock repurchase. Apple has plenty of cash. This is a fairly rare opportunity for companies like Apple to increase shareholder value.
    edited February 2020 pscooter63lolliverFileMakerFeller
  • Reply 39 of 97
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,811member

    dedgecko said:
    sirozha said:
    Apparently, DED holds a large position in AAPL. How does he know that Apple is buying shares for cheap right now? The supply chains are completely disrupted or decimated. It’s very possible that to restore the manufacturing capabilities, Apple will need to move manufacturing out of China. Foxconn can’t do it on their own. Apple will have to pay for a large portion of moving manufacturing out of China. Apple’s sales this year will be low compared to previous years due the problems with supply chains and lower demand. Additionally, it appears that the super cycle based on 5G is not going to happen in 2020 because of the Coronavirus delaying iPhone 12 but also because the deployment of 5G largely stalled all over the world. 

    In these kind of conditions, it would be completely stupid of Tim Cook to throw cash reserves at stock buy backs. The whole reason behind Steve Jobs’ building the stash of cash was to enable Apple to survive a calamity that would destroy other businesses. Coronavirus has a very good chantce of becoming this calamity. Apple will need cash to keep paying their employees and not laying them off. Apple will need cash to set up new supply chains and assembly facilities outside of China, run their data centers, pay rent on their stores worldwide, donate to the Trump campaign to prevent a socialist from winning the next Presidential election and splitting up Apple, etc. 

    Blowing cash on buybacks to keep AAPL afloat so that DED’s portfolio would look not as bad should be the least of Tim Cook’s concerns now, and  I’m 99% positive that this is not what Apple is doing during this market correction. 
    You clearly have no idea what is going on and how $AAPL functions / fluctuates with market sentiment. Go lurk on PED’s Apple 3.0, or read posts from the last decade to get up to speed a little quicker.

    Additionally, there will be no 5G supercycle, because supercycles are fictional events only discovered after they occurred.  There will be no 5G iphone this year. Why!?  Because there’s no acceptable 5G networks that the 250 million iPhones that will be purchased this year can use... okay, you’re right, they won’t sell 250 million top of the line iPhones. The networks wouldn’t be able to support the 100 million top of the line iPhones Apple will sell between 2020 and 2021. 

    Thanks for the post DED (@corrections)!  Spot on per the usual!  Sacto Joe usually claims a blackout period any time Apple talks or its close to their quarterly report out. He and a gang of folks (again from Apple3.0) that went to the Annual Investors Meeting tried to ask a question related to buy-back timing, but unfortunately weren’t able to ask it. They simply weren’t picked for a question. 

    Edited to add comments on 5G - ROLMFAO
    Absolutely agree with everyone that reads or subscribes to PED30. A huge resource on $AAPL and many knowledgeable posters. 

    https://www.ped30.com
    Bart Y
  • Reply 40 of 97
    carnegiecarnegie Posts: 1,007member

    I don’t think that’s how stock buybacks work. If they could buy more AAPL any time the stock took a hit they’d be incentivized to pile on with negative news to drive down the stock, just like short sellers. It’s my understanding these stock repurchases are pre-timed and have nothing to do with market fluctuations.
    Apple can buy back shares when prices dip. They just can't make decisions about the timing of repurchases based on material non-public information. They can have a plan that specifies the conditions under which shares are bought or they can have someone making the day-to-day decisions who doesn't have access to material non-public information. That person could, e.g., decide to buy shares today because the share price is down quite a bit from last week.

    That said, if Apple is - or has someone - micromanaging the timing of purchases, the information we have suggests that they haven't been especially successful. If you look at quarterly totals for share purchases and the average price paid, and compare those numbers to the average share prices within the same quarters, Apple is only about $200 million ahead. That is to say, the total that Apple has paid to buy back shares in the open market (or in private negotiations, but not through ASR agreements) is only about $200 million less than it would have been had Apple paid the average (closing) share price for a given quarter for the number of shares it purchased in that quarter.

    That said again, the information we have does suggest - at least to me - that Apple does look to buy more shares when share prices dip significantly. It tends to buy more shares in a quarter (as compared to the previous quarter) when the share price is down in that quarter (from the previous quarter).

    So... I'd guess that Apple isn't minute-by-minute trying to time the market but that it does take advantage of share price dips over longer periods. 
    lolliver
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