"Apple's iPhone 11 and iPhone 11 Pro sales in China are rebounding much faster than Androids"
I clicked through on the links. Couldn't see anything to support the claim except for data on just one month.
Are we to take the claim as being meaningful basing conclusions on a four week period?
A four week period that was so exceptional in itself as to make it literally impossible to draw conclusions.
Five fold increase from what exactly? From the previous month which was, according to the information in the linked article, utterly disastrous for Apple?
Could it be that Android phones just didn't have as disastrous a February as Apple and that is what has led to the claim?
Either way, a four week period, is absolutely not enough to warrant such an open ended claim.
That said, Reuters did throw this in:
"Earlier this month several Chinese online retailers slashed prices on iPhone 11 models. Apple has let third-party sellers in China offer discounts in the past in order to spur demand."
But Apple's installed base includes a vast number of independently rich people who are at most going to be inconvenienced by this turmoil.
The virus does not discriminate between rich or poor, so even Apple's user base can be seriously "inconvenienced" from that fact alone.
Secondly, the economic downturn we will experience will be unprecedented in comparison to what the world have experienced in recent times because, this most likely engineered virus, will be exceptionally hard to make a vaccine for (if at all possible), and we will see multiple waves of infections across the planet. – Waves that has the potential to be much more lethal than the current one because one of the "hallmarks" of the virus is it degrades your immune system making the body less prepared to withstand the next infection.
The virus doesn't discriminate but our society is inherently, systematically racist. Sure anyone can die from it. But do you think everyone in society has the same access to healthcare, gets triaged on the same level?
Our "essential" workers are out there risking their lives doing basic labor tasks in the cough zone of the public, earning just enough to survive. The affluent are sitting at home sort of bored ordering toys off amazon. Which one can go to the hospital--can take off the time--and actually get treated, and then have the luxury of resting to get better, etc.
The virus wasn't engineered. This a conspiracy theory bullshit. This also has no impact on how easy it will be to create a vaccine.
The virus does seem to cause peripheral damage that will result in issues we haven't even contemplated yet, including the psychological toll of the trauma of getting through it, being stressed about financed, and certainly the incredible loss of life that will impact millions on a very personal level in terrible ways. And while horrific, this coronavirus is far less deadly and contagious as a disease could hypothetically be. Factory farming in the US created swine flu and has helped pathogens evolve around the antibiotics we know about. Once our primary, safer antibiotics stop working, we are going to be really fragile.
And if the US keeps investing only in billion-dollar stealth bombers and megabombs, we will only be protected from some conventional army of terrorists that doesn't really exist but will be completely wide open to an invasion by a random pathogen that guns can't stop. Seems like even conservatives should be able to understand that investing in castles in the age of cannons isn't really smart anymore. Yet we lack even the barest of public health systems of any competence. Rich people are going to die from being coughed on by their essential Amazon delivery person. So yes, you're right, in the end it doesn't discriminate even if our society does.
Are you waiting out this virus in the U.S. or in Berlin?
People are going to get much more aware of purchasing products that creates jobs in their countries and not someone elsewhere. Equally they are going become much more focused on that their hard earned money don't stuff the coffers of international companies that hardly give anything back to their markets (taxes, job creation, local economic growth).
Doubt it. People are going to chase a bargain just like they have always done. Government spending might reorientate to prioritise the things you list, but even that will likely only be a flash in the pan.
Brexit was pretty much a reaction on the above, as was the election of Trump. This virus is going to open eyes all over – actually it already has.
People are going to get much more aware of purchasing products that creates jobs in their countries and not someone elsewhere. Equally they are going become much more focused on that their hard earned money don't stuff the coffers of international companies that hardly give anything back to their markets (taxes, job creation, local economic growth).
Doubt it. People are going to chase a bargain just like they have always done. Government spending might reorientate to prioritise the things you list, but even that will likely only be a flash in the pan.
Brexit was pretty much a reaction on the above, as was the election of Trump. This virus is going to open eyes all over – actually it already has.
Brexit may have been, but that just proves are more ideological with their vote, their wallets are entirely different. “British made” is a thing that has little traction in markets, especially consumer electronics where I can’t recall ever seeing it.
People are going to get much more aware of purchasing products that creates jobs in their countries and not someone elsewhere. Equally they are going become much more focused on that their hard earned money don't stuff the coffers of international companies that hardly give anything back to their markets (taxes, job creation, local economic growth).
Doubt it. People are going to chase a bargain just like they have always done. Government spending might reorientate to prioritise the things you list, but even that will likely only be a flash in the pan.
Brexit was pretty much a reaction on the above, as was the election of Trump. This virus is going to open eyes all over – actually it already has.
Brexit may have been, but that just proves are more ideological with their vote, their wallets are entirely different. “British made” is a thing that has little traction in markets, especially consumer electronics where I can’t recall ever seeing it.
All in all they have shipped about 35 million RPIs so far.
Just one example
Let me add to that: We have found that we can throw at it most tasks the (now discontinued) macOS Server 2012 mac mini config handled for small businesses and workgroups at a fraction of the cost. – Or just install two or three distributing tasks amongst them.
People are going to get much more aware of purchasing products that creates jobs in their countries and not someone elsewhere. Equally they are going become much more focused on that their hard earned money don't stuff the coffers of international companies that hardly give anything back to their markets (taxes, job creation, local economic growth).
Doubt it. People are going to chase a bargain just like they have always done. Government spending might reorientate to prioritise the things you list, but even that will likely only be a flash in the pan.
Brexit was pretty much a reaction on the above, as was the election of Trump. This virus is going to open eyes all over – actually it already has.
Brexit may have been, but that just proves are more ideological with their vote, their wallets are entirely different. “British made” is a thing that has little traction in markets, especially consumer electronics where I can’t recall ever seeing it.
All in all they have shipped about 35 million RPIs so far.
Just one example
Let me add to that: We have found that we can throw at it most tasks the (now discontinued) macOS Server 2012 mac mini config handled for small businesses and workgroups at a fraction of the cost. – Or just install two or three distributing tasks amongst them.
What? Are you buying the Raspberry Pi because it is British made? What foreign alternatived did you reject because they were foreign (a discontinued product is hardly an option). You can't just namecheck a successful British product and expect it to be accepted as evidence that consumers are switching to locally manufactured products.
People are going to get much more aware of purchasing products that creates jobs in their countries and not someone elsewhere. Equally they are going become much more focused on that their hard earned money don't stuff the coffers of international companies that hardly give anything back to their markets (taxes, job creation, local economic growth).
Doubt it. People are going to chase a bargain just like they have always done. Government spending might reorientate to prioritise the things you list, but even that will likely only be a flash in the pan.
Brexit was pretty much a reaction on the above, as was the election of Trump. This virus is going to open eyes all over – actually it already has.
Brexit may have been, but that just proves are more ideological with their vote, their wallets are entirely different. “British made” is a thing that has little traction in markets, especially consumer electronics where I can’t recall ever seeing it.
All in all they have shipped about 35 million RPIs so far.
Just one example
Let me add to that: We have found that we can throw at it most tasks the (now discontinued) macOS Server 2012 mac mini config handled for small businesses and workgroups at a fraction of the cost. – Or just install two or three distributing tasks amongst them.
What? Are you buying the Raspberry Pi because it is British made? What foreign alternatived did you reject because they were foreign (a discontinued product is hardly an option). You can't just namecheck a successful British product and expect it to be accepted as evidence that consumers are switching to locally manufactured products.
Not buying the PI because it is British, but because it fills a space. Duh! +They have a 7 year reputation, and is not some knock off Chinese fake company with shoddy support and build quality that is gone in two months.
You said you had never heard of any British consumer product. I gave you an example.
First of all there is a rude awakening across the planet of the insanity of shipping production of goods and services offshore, and putting all eggs in the Chinese basket. The effect of the COVID-19 crisis is that suddenly all countries starts to act like countries again, and global sourcing has to a large extent collapsed.
With the upcoming financial depression we just have seen the start of, people are going to first cut on subscriptions; cloud services, music, media streaming, software subscriptions, then anything premium.
People are going to get much more aware of purchasing products that creates jobs in their countries and not someone elsewhere. Equally they are going become much more focused on that their hard earned money don't stuff the coffers of international companies that hardly give anything back to their markets (taxes, job creation, local economic growth).
But Apple's installed base includes a vast number of independently rich people who are at most going to be inconvenienced by this turmoil.
The virus does not discriminate between rich or poor, so even Apple's user base can be seriously "inconvenienced" from that fact alone.
Secondly, the economic downturn we will experience will be unprecedented in comparison to what the world have experienced in recent times because, this most likely engineered virus, will be exceptionally hard to make a vaccine for (if at all possible), and we will see multiple waves of infections across the planet. – Waves that has the potential to be much more lethal than the current one because one of the "hallmarks" of the virus is it degrades your immune system making the body less prepared to withstand the next infection.
Piss off with your conspiracy theory and FUD spreading bullshit. No one “engineered” this virus.
First of all there is a rude awakening across the planet of the insanity of shipping production of goods and services offshore, and putting all eggs in the Chinese basket. The effect of the COVID-19 crisis is that suddenly all countries starts to act like countries again, and global sourcing has to a large extent collapsed.
With the upcoming financial depression we just have seen the start of, people are going to first cut on subscriptions; cloud services, music, media streaming, software subscriptions, then anything premium.
People are going to get much more aware of purchasing products that creates jobs in their countries and not someone elsewhere. Equally they are going become much more focused on that their hard earned money don't stuff the coffers of international companies that hardly give anything back to their markets (taxes, job creation, local economic growth).
But Apple's installed base includes a vast number of independently rich people who are at most going to be inconvenienced by this turmoil.
The virus does not discriminate between rich or poor, so even Apple's user base can be seriously "inconvenienced" from that fact alone.
Secondly, the economic downturn we will experience will be unprecedented in comparison to what the world have experienced in recent times because, this most likely engineered virus, will be exceptionally hard to make a vaccine for (if at all possible), and we will see multiple waves of infections across the planet. – Waves that has the potential to be much more lethal than the current one because one of the "hallmarks" of the virus is it degrades your immune system making the body less prepared to withstand the next infection.
Piss off with your conspiracy theory and FUD spreading bullshit. No one “engineered” this virus.
The British Intelligence organizations think it is. It is all over the news this side of the pond today, also in AU. The Brits mull they will ditch Huawei for 5G over it.
Always great to read your thoughts, Daniel. But the tldr; is simply to apply Betteridge's Law of Headlines: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headlines
Beat me to it. Was gonna say the article could have been much shorter and just as accurate:
People are going to get much more aware of purchasing products that creates jobs in their countries and not someone elsewhere. Equally they are going become much more focused on that their hard earned money don't stuff the coffers of international companies that hardly give anything back to their markets (taxes, job creation, local economic growth).
Doubt it. People are going to chase a bargain just like they have always done. Government spending might reorientate to prioritise the things you list, but even that will likely only be a flash in the pan.
Brexit was pretty much a reaction on the above, as was the election of Trump. This virus is going to open eyes all over – actually it already has.
Brexit may have been, but that just proves are more ideological with their vote, their wallets are entirely different. “British made” is a thing that has little traction in markets, especially consumer electronics where I can’t recall ever seeing it.
All in all they have shipped about 35 million RPIs so far.
Just one example
Let me add to that: We have found that we can throw at it most tasks the (now discontinued) macOS Server 2012 mac mini config handled for small businesses and workgroups at a fraction of the cost. – Or just install two or three distributing tasks amongst them.
What? Are you buying the Raspberry Pi because it is British made? What foreign alternatived did you reject because they were foreign (a discontinued product is hardly an option). You can't just namecheck a successful British product and expect it to be accepted as evidence that consumers are switching to locally manufactured products.
Not buying the PI because it is British, but because it fills a space. Duh! +They have a 7 year reputation, and is not some knock off Chinese fake company with shoddy support and build quality that is gone in two months.
You said you had never heard of any British consumer product. I gave you an example.
That's not what I meant at all, and I'm surprised you thought I did as it'd be a weird thing to believe that there are not British products. Besides which, I'm British. I was saying that "British made"/"Made in Britain" etc are not marketing terms that carries a lot of weight. They're sometimes used sometimes in food products, but not much else, and I've never seen it applied to consumer electronics. The Raspberry Pi may be British made, but (unless I'm missing something on the website) it doesn't prominently market itself as British made. Because no one cares.
People are going to get much more aware of purchasing products that creates jobs in their countries and not someone elsewhere. Equally they are going become much more focused on that their hard earned money don't stuff the coffers of international companies that hardly give anything back to their markets (taxes, job creation, local economic growth).
Doubt it. People are going to chase a bargain just like they have always done. Government spending might reorientate to prioritise the things you list, but even that will likely only be a flash in the pan.
Brexit was pretty much a reaction on the above, as was the election of Trump. This virus is going to open eyes all over – actually it already has.
Brexit may have been, but that just proves are more ideological with their vote, their wallets are entirely different. “British made” is a thing that has little traction in markets, especially consumer electronics where I can’t recall ever seeing it.
All in all they have shipped about 35 million RPIs so far.
Just one example
Let me add to that: We have found that we can throw at it most tasks the (now discontinued) macOS Server 2012 mac mini config handled for small businesses and workgroups at a fraction of the cost. – Or just install two or three distributing tasks amongst them.
What? Are you buying the Raspberry Pi because it is British made? What foreign alternatived did you reject because they were foreign (a discontinued product is hardly an option). You can't just namecheck a successful British product and expect it to be accepted as evidence that consumers are switching to locally manufactured products.
Not buying the PI because it is British, but because it fills a space. Duh! +They have a 7 year reputation, and is not some knock off Chinese fake company with shoddy support and build quality that is gone in two months.
You said you had never heard of any British consumer product. I gave you an example.
That's not what I meant at all, and I'm surprised you thought I did as it'd be a weird thing to believe that there are not British products. Besides which, I'm British. I was saying that "British made"/"Made in Britain" etc are not marketing terms that carries a lot of weight. They're sometimes used sometimes in food products, but not much else, and I've never seen it applied to consumer electronics. The Raspberry Pi may be British made, but (unless I'm missing something on the website) it doesn't prominently market itself as British made. Because no one cares.
I agree with you that "British made"/"Made in Britain" (swap in any European country) don't carry much weight outside the country in question, and is primarily used for governments to promote domestic produced products such as agricultural.
My point, however, was that after people now realize the fallacy of placing all our industrial production in the China/Asia basket, it will create much higher awareness and demand for local job creation/preservation, national self sufficiency, and for the environmentally inclined, highlight the impact of hauling products and raw materials cross the planet when you can produce more environmentally friendly locally.
People are going to get much more aware of purchasing products that creates jobs in their countries and not someone elsewhere. Equally they are going become much more focused on that their hard earned money don't stuff the coffers of international companies that hardly give anything back to their markets (taxes, job creation, local economic growth).
Doubt it. People are going to chase a bargain just like they have always done. Government spending might reorientate to prioritise the things you list, but even that will likely only be a flash in the pan.
Brexit was pretty much a reaction on the above, as was the election of Trump. This virus is going to open eyes all over – actually it already has.
Brexit may have been, but that just proves are more ideological with their vote, their wallets are entirely different. “British made” is a thing that has little traction in markets, especially consumer electronics where I can’t recall ever seeing it.
All in all they have shipped about 35 million RPIs so far.
Just one example
Let me add to that: We have found that we can throw at it most tasks the (now discontinued) macOS Server 2012 mac mini config handled for small businesses and workgroups at a fraction of the cost. – Or just install two or three distributing tasks amongst them.
What? Are you buying the Raspberry Pi because it is British made? What foreign alternatived did you reject because they were foreign (a discontinued product is hardly an option). You can't just namecheck a successful British product and expect it to be accepted as evidence that consumers are switching to locally manufactured products.
Not buying the PI because it is British, but because it fills a space. Duh! +They have a 7 year reputation, and is not some knock off Chinese fake company with shoddy support and build quality that is gone in two months.
You said you had never heard of any British consumer product. I gave you an example.
That's not what I meant at all, and I'm surprised you thought I did as it'd be a weird thing to believe that there are not British products. Besides which, I'm British. I was saying that "British made"/"Made in Britain" etc are not marketing terms that carries a lot of weight. They're sometimes used sometimes in food products, but not much else, and I've never seen it applied to consumer electronics. The Raspberry Pi may be British made, but (unless I'm missing something on the website) it doesn't prominently market itself as British made. Because no one cares.
I agree with you that "British made"/"Made in Britain" (swap in any European country) don't carry much weight outside the country in question, and is primarily used for governments to promote domestic produced products such as agricultural.
My point, however, was that after people now realize the fallacy of placing all our industrial production in the China/Asia basket, it will create much higher awareness and demand for local job creation/preservation, national self sufficiency, and for the environmentally inclined, highlight the impact of hauling products and raw materials cross the planet when you can produce more environmentally friendly locally.
Yeah, I get your point. And I doubt it. There have been numerous historical triggers that could have lead to a boost in this kind of awarenesss, and none of them have come to anything. People just care about the price and the shininess of the thing, they don't have the wholistic view to care about where it's come from.
"How could Apple possibly replace its iPhone cash machine with a handful of new Services such as Arcade, TV+, News+, and a new Apple Card, none of which appeared capable of generating massive revenues? It all sounded very troubling and ominous."
Apple has been moving to enhance services/wearables for years. It's not about 'replacing' the cash machine that is iPhone. iPhone will continue. iPod Touch has managed to continue too. It is about evening the business out and reducing revenue dependency on iPhone. Something that has been very real, on many levels for years.
The link here links back to your own article which links to the offending piece which is behind a paywall. Therefore I haven't been able to form an opinion on the so-called 'narrative'.
That said, iPhone unit sales have been flat for years now and some Android competitors have seen huge gains over the same period.
Why is that? There are many reasons. Price, value, technology, competition, etc. There is clearly massive and increasing demand for those competitors' phones and if iPhone hasn't been able to create the same effect, that is a problem for Apple to remedy.
Let's not forget that in the case of Huawei, it has thrown a shadow over Apple without access to the world's second largest smartphone market and with the U.S government literally trying to blast it out of existence.
It is up to Apple to fix the phone problem but the rest of the business also needs shoring up, and that is where Apple is heading.
By my own reckoning the iPhone today is lacking. Even One Plus is chasing down Apple’s best seller. When this guy says the iPhone 11 looks very dated he is not wrong.
It doesn't 'look' the part and looks do matter in this business. It's part of the industry. A checkbox to tick. Of course, there are more checkboxes.
If some Chinese buyers purchase iPhones as 'status symbols' you would think that status has to be upheld by the phone itself - on both the inside and the outside.
Pivotal? I have no issue with the term in this context.
While sales have flattened for iPhone, Apple has spent billions (literally) in attracting revenues from other areas of its business.
There was a moment not long ago where iPhone revenue fell near or under 50% of the total.
The author is well noted as an Apple fanboi without equal and an eternal optimist of all things regarding Apple.
And your reputation is... ? Let's just debate the arguments on their merits, shall we?
The Apple of 2008-9 was a very different company than the Apple of 2020 in not only size and overhead, but sources of revenue and their stickiness.
Indeed. In that Financial Year, Apple reported net income of ~US$8.2 billion with opex of ~US$31.2 billion; last year it was ~US$55.2 billion with opex of ~US$196.2 billion. [https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/income-statement] Costs have gone up, but so has revenue.
Apple now has topped out in its ability to drive iPhone income by jumping the average selling price and we all know Mac sales are tanking. Over on the services side, Apple Music has converted +/- 1 Billion iTunes accounts to a small fraction willing to pay monthly for low-quality streaming music. Also on services, Apple is shelling out tons of money to create content to feed its streaming service with little income as they are giving it away to a significant portion of the user base. Note also that production is shut down everywhere and Apple does not have a large catalog of content as AT&T (HBOMax), Disney, CBS, Comcast/NBCU(Peacock), Netflix or Amazon have. It will not take long for customers to burn through what little Apple has in the can.
The music service is acceptable to a growing percentage of the user base. Apple is making more money from Apple Music subscriptions than from the sale of digital music, I believe, so I don't concur with your assessment on this service. Apple TV+ is, as you point out, largely being given away so I don't see how "people not spending money on it" is out of alignment with management and investor expectations - TV+ is a long-term strategy. Granted, it might take an extra 12 months or more for the service to reach its content goals, and that's worthy of analysis, but the impact on the company in the short term is small.
Apple in the Great Recession was a lean & smallish company that sold things directly. Apple today is a large company with many mouths to feed and depends upon financing to sell iPhones and rental fees to support services that are month to month. If the recession lasts any length of time people will drop the subscriptions and quite possibly the expensive phones for a cheap device that does not require a monthly payment. The Apple of old was debt phobic and Tim Cook has turned Apple into a debt-laden company.
You know what's even cheaper than buying a cheap device? Holding onto the one you already have. This was covered in the article - people will defer their purchase rather than swap to the lower upfront cost of a new device. Should their hand be forced by a breakage of some sort... I expect the majority of people would buy a second-hand iPhone rather than a new Android phone.
As for Apple's debt, a large part of that was taken on because it was cheaper to borrow money than to repatriate the cash in foreign holdings. That situation has not changed. Apple's ability to service the debt remains strong; even if the company's income dropped to $0 tomorrow they could cover their operating expenses for roughly six months with cash on hand (depending on the costs associated with accessing the cash). They have net assets of close to US$90 billion; there is a very long list of companies in a worse position.
If we see a v-shaped recovery Apple might be OK, but if we get in a long cycle recession Apple will have some serious restructuring to do. Look at Disney where Iger was put back in charge of the empire he just handed over to a successor. The lights are out in Orlando, Anaheim, Tokyo, Paris and Shanghai Disney parks, the cruise business is DOA, ESPN has no live sports and they are carrying a ton of debt.
We will indeed see some changes at Apple if the environment is challenging... which is exactly the same thing we will see at every other business on the planet. Mind you, we see changes in businesses all the time so I don't feel like either of us is revealing a secret truth.
Nothing you've said persuades me that the article's premise is wrong: hard times are ahead, Apple is in a strong position to weather the storm.
With the upcoming financial depression we just have seen the start of, people are going to first cut on subscriptions; cloud services, music, media streaming, software subscriptions, then anything premium.
People are going to get much more aware of purchasing products that creates jobs in their countries and not someone elsewhere. Equally they are going become much more focused on that their hard earned money don't stuff the coffers of international companies that hardly give anything back to their markets (taxes, job creation, local economic growth).
Remember that during the Great Depression people still found a way to pay for a movie ticket. It's not necessarily premium goods and services that suffer a downturn when the economy stalls, it's the items that don't deliver enough perceived value. Price is only one side of that equation.
And while it's tempting to think that people will focus on what the recipients of their money do with it, I've never seen any evidence of widespread adoption to that belief. We are all selfish creatures with mostly short-term aspirations.
"How could Apple possibly replace its iPhone cash machine with a handful of new Services such as Arcade, TV+, News+, and a new Apple Card, none of which appeared capable of generating massive revenues? It all sounded very troubling and ominous."
Apple has been moving to enhance services/wearables for years. It's not about 'replacing' the cash machine that is iPhone. iPhone will continue. iPod Touch has managed to continue too. It is about evening the business out and reducing revenue dependency on iPhone. Something that has been very real, on many levels for years.
The link here links back to your own article which links to the offending piece which is behind a paywall. Therefore I haven't been able to form an opinion on the so-called 'narrative'.
That said, iPhone unit sales have been flat for years now and some Android competitors have seen huge gains over the same period.
Why is that? There are many reasons. Price, value, technology, competition, etc. There is clearly massive and increasing demand for those competitors' phones and if iPhone hasn't been able to create the same effect, that is a problem for Apple to remedy.
The assumption that unit sales is important is key to your argument here. What if they are not as important as you think?
Apple has clearly noticed the lack of growth in unit sales; their approach has been to maximise the revenue per user rather than push more devices out there. They have been successful in this regard, at least as far as I can tell.
The calculation is, after all, x units sold * $y per unit and if you can't (or won't) increase x but you can increase y then you'll still be able to achieve a decent maximum total. Apple is abstracting this a bit to the number of users rather than the number of units, but the principle still holds.
There was a moment not long ago where iPhone revenue fell near or under 50% of the total.
And all the pundits who had been declaring that Apple was too dependent on the iPhone were suddenly up in arms about how dreadful this new state of affairs was.
With the upcoming financial depression we just have seen the start of, people are going to first cut on subscriptions; cloud services, music, media streaming, software subscriptions, then anything premium.
People are going to get much more aware of purchasing products that creates jobs in their countries and not someone elsewhere. Equally they are going become much more focused on that their hard earned money don't stuff the coffers of international companies that hardly give anything back to their markets (taxes, job creation, local economic growth).
Remember that during the Great Depression people still found a way to pay for a movie ticket. It's not necessarily premium goods and services that suffer a downturn when the economy stalls, it's the items that don't deliver enough perceived value. Price is only one side of that equation.
And while it's tempting to think that people will focus on what the recipients of their money do with it, I've never seen any evidence of widespread adoption to that belief. We are all selfish creatures with mostly short-term aspirations.
I agree with you the once-off splurges will still occur during recessions. I said cancel subscriptions, which are running expenses that racks up a surprisingly high yearly amount for many.
More relevant to the Q. “ Will the COVID-19 disaster sink Apple's premium hardware?”
is that we’re waiting, waiting and waiting for AirTile, AirPower, AppleHeadphone, AirPodsPro Lite, AppleGlasses, AppleCar, iTV, iPhone SE2, MacBook 14”, iMac, HomePod 2020.
No, it’s not COVID-19 that is the (main) cause of delays - although it will certainly be attributed being so.
The core problem is the dispersed focus on all the services mentioned, the CEO not obsessed with products, and the money addiction of the immense Tech Bureaucracy he created reaping fruits from Steve’s ideas.
Steve said: “Stay lean and mean, stay foolish, focus on products”
Tim did: “Become large and keep counting, focus on cash”
Hence its inability to act as a lean, mean and innovative aggressor. It has become merely defensive, sadly, where keeping market share is key and innovation considered merely disruptive.
On the individual employee level that translates “Think different” into “Think indifferent”.
I think Tim Cook is a pretty good manager of Apple, maybe the second best ever. After Steve and Tim though, the rest were abysmal. You are right about the Products though, he isn't really into them.
Comments
I clicked through on the links. Couldn't see anything to support the claim except for data on just one month.
Are we to take the claim as being meaningful basing conclusions on a four week period?
A four week period that was so exceptional in itself as to make it literally impossible to draw conclusions.
Five fold increase from what exactly? From the previous month which was, according to the information in the linked article, utterly disastrous for Apple?
Could it be that Android phones just didn't have as disastrous a February as Apple and that is what has led to the claim?
Either way, a four week period, is absolutely not enough to warrant such an open ended claim.
That said, Reuters did throw this in:
"Earlier this month several Chinese online retailers slashed prices on iPhone 11 models. Apple has let third-party sellers in China offer discounts in the past in order to spur demand."
That issue of pricing again.
ARM based SBC with performance comparable to the 2014 mac mini. Running Debian ++
https://www.raspberrypi.org/products/raspberry-pi-4-model-b/
All in all they have shipped about 35 million RPIs so far.
Just one example
Let me add to that: We have found that we can throw at it most tasks the (now discontinued) macOS Server 2012 mac mini config handled for small businesses and workgroups at a fraction of the cost. – Or just install two or three distributing tasks amongst them.
[shakes head at yet another unnecessarily long, unnecessarily defensive editorial, by the same weirdly emotionally-invested and biased author]
You said you had never heard of any British consumer product. I gave you an example.
The Brits mull they will ditch Huawei for 5G over it.
"No."
My point, however, was that after people now realize the fallacy of placing all our industrial production in the China/Asia basket, it will create much higher awareness and demand for local job creation/preservation, national self sufficiency, and for the environmentally inclined, highlight the impact of hauling products and raw materials cross the planet when you can produce more environmentally friendly locally.
Apple has been moving to enhance services/wearables for years. It's not about 'replacing' the cash machine that is iPhone. iPhone will continue. iPod Touch has managed to continue too. It is about evening the business out and reducing revenue dependency on iPhone. Something that has been very real, on many levels for years.
The link here links back to your own article which links to the offending piece which is behind a paywall. Therefore I haven't been able to form an opinion on the so-called 'narrative'.
That said, iPhone unit sales have been flat for years now and some Android competitors have seen huge gains over the same period.
Why is that? There are many reasons. Price, value, technology, competition, etc. There is clearly massive and increasing demand for those competitors' phones and if iPhone hasn't been able to create the same effect, that is a problem for Apple to remedy.
Let's not forget that in the case of Huawei, it has thrown a shadow over Apple without access to the world's second largest smartphone market and with the U.S government literally trying to blast it out of existence.
It is up to Apple to fix the phone problem but the rest of the business also needs shoring up, and that is where Apple is heading.
By my own reckoning the iPhone today is lacking. Even One Plus is chasing down Apple’s best seller. When this guy says the iPhone 11 looks very dated he is not wrong.
It doesn't 'look' the part and looks do matter in this business. It's part of the industry. A checkbox to tick. Of course, there are more checkboxes.
If some Chinese buyers purchase iPhones as 'status symbols' you would think that status has to be upheld by the phone itself - on both the inside and the outside.
Pivotal? I have no issue with the term in this context.
While sales have flattened for iPhone, Apple has spent billions (literally) in attracting revenues from other areas of its business.
There was a moment not long ago where iPhone revenue fell near or under 50% of the total.
Indeed. In that Financial Year, Apple reported net income of ~US$8.2 billion with opex of ~US$31.2 billion; last year it was ~US$55.2 billion with opex of ~US$196.2 billion. [https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/income-statement] Costs have gone up, but so has revenue.
The music service is acceptable to a growing percentage of the user base. Apple is making more money from Apple Music subscriptions than from the sale of digital music, I believe, so I don't concur with your assessment on this service. Apple TV+ is, as you point out, largely being given away so I don't see how "people not spending money on it" is out of alignment with management and investor expectations - TV+ is a long-term strategy. Granted, it might take an extra 12 months or more for the service to reach its content goals, and that's worthy of analysis, but the impact on the company in the short term is small.
You know what's even cheaper than buying a cheap device? Holding onto the one you already have. This was covered in the article - people will defer their purchase rather than swap to the lower upfront cost of a new device. Should their hand be forced by a breakage of some sort... I expect the majority of people would buy a second-hand iPhone rather than a new Android phone.
As for Apple's debt, a large part of that was taken on because it was cheaper to borrow money than to repatriate the cash in foreign holdings. That situation has not changed. Apple's ability to service the debt remains strong; even if the company's income dropped to $0 tomorrow they could cover their operating expenses for roughly six months with cash on hand (depending on the costs associated with accessing the cash). They have net assets of close to US$90 billion; there is a very long list of companies in a worse position.
We will indeed see some changes at Apple if the environment is challenging... which is exactly the same thing we will see at every other business on the planet. Mind you, we see changes in businesses all the time so I don't feel like either of us is revealing a secret truth.
Nothing you've said persuades me that the article's premise is wrong: hard times are ahead, Apple is in a strong position to weather the storm.
Remember that during the Great Depression people still found a way to pay for a movie ticket. It's not necessarily premium goods and services that suffer a downturn when the economy stalls, it's the items that don't deliver enough perceived value. Price is only one side of that equation.
And while it's tempting to think that people will focus on what the recipients of their money do with it, I've never seen any evidence of widespread adoption to that belief. We are all selfish creatures with mostly short-term aspirations.
Apple has clearly noticed the lack of growth in unit sales; their approach has been to maximise the revenue per user rather than push more devices out there. They have been successful in this regard, at least as far as I can tell.
The calculation is, after all, x units sold * $y per unit and if you can't (or won't) increase x but you can increase y then you'll still be able to achieve a decent maximum total. Apple is abstracting this a bit to the number of users rather than the number of units, but the principle still holds.
And all the pundits who had been declaring that Apple was too dependent on the iPhone were suddenly up in arms about how dreadful this new state of affairs was.