iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro pre-order results beat iPhone 11 launch, Kuo says

AppleInsider

TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimates Apple notched between 7 million and 9 million combined iPhone 12 and 12 Pro pre-orders over launch weekend, and those numbers will only rise with a start to iPhone 12 Pro Max and mini sales in November.

In a note to investors on Monday, Kuo said iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro alone nearly matched the performance of the entire iPhone 11 line in 2019. Apple is estimated to have sold between 10 million and 12 million iPhone 11 series devices during launch weekend in 2019. Sales of the two new models reached an estimated 1.7 million to 2 million units in 24 hours, up from 500,000 to 800,000 iPhone 11 units recorded last year.

"The iPhone 12 Pro pre-order beat our expectation because of Apple core fans' initial preference for high-end models, the strong demand in the Chinese market, and the coming peak season demand in the U.S. and Europe," Kuo writes.

Kuo does not expect the upcoming iPhone 12 mini and iPhone 12 Pro Max to match iPhone 12 and 12 Pro, but pre-orders for the two remaining 2020 models could push overall 12 series pre-order sales toward "supercycle" heights.

The analyst is modeling iPhone 12 and 12 Pro to both account for between 30% and 35% of iPhone 12 series shipments in the fourth quarter. The pint-sized iPhone 12 mini and super-sized iPhone 12 Pro Max are estimated to hit 10-15% and 15-20%, respectively.

Kuo previously pegged iPhone 12 mini to garner a larger portion of shipments, but a lack of dual SIM support and the handset's small display are leading to a muted response from the important Chinese market. China is, however, exhibiting intense interest in the more expensive iPhone 12 Pro.

"The reasons for the strong pre-order demand in China include 1) demand transfer of the high-end model due to Huawei ban, and 2) more popular 5G infrastructure to benefit the marketing and promotion," Kuo writes.

Announced at a special event last week, the iPhone 12 lineup boasts a slew of upgrades including a refreshed design, powerful A14 Bionic system-on-chip, and 5G support. It is the latter feature that is expected to goose sales into 2021.

Apple initiated iPhone 12 pre-orders last Friday ahead of a wide release slated for Oct. 23. Pre-orders for the diminutive iPhone 12 mini and top-end iPhone 12 Pro Max will begin on Nov. 6 and arrive in customer hands a week later.

jido

The iPhone 12 mini does have dual SIM, like its siblings. One of the SIMs is an eSIM. 

I expect the remaining models will command a larger share than what Kuo estimates, especially the Mini. Maybe 20-25% of sales

muthuk_vanalingam

Only Kuo can write this with a straight face and get away with it - Kuo previously pegged iPhone 12 mini to garner a larger portion of shipments, but a lack of dual SIM support and the handset's small display are leading to a muted response from the important Chinese market.

randominternetperson

muthuk_vanalingam said:

Only Kuo can write this with a straight face and get away with it - Kuo previously pegged iPhone 12 mini to garner a larger portion of shipments, but a lack of dual SIM support and the handset's small display are leading to a muted response from the important Chinese market.

Perhaps the response is also muted because it's not actually available yet?

randominternetperson

At least in the US, the carriers are being much more aggressive about subsidizing new phones for new and existing customers this time around.  I know nothing is truly "free" but in practical, dollar-and-cents many customers with a 3-year-old phone can trade it in (and re-up for 2.5 years) and get a free high-end phone.  That'll be great for Apple's bottom line.

NotoriousDEV

Of course AT&T wants more $$$ for adding 5G service, so they’re hoping to earn it back. 

randominternetperson said:

At least in the US, the carriers are being much more aggressive about subsidizing new phones for new and existing customers this time around.  I know nothing is truly "free" but in practical, dollar-and-cents many customers with a 3-year-old phone can trade it in (and re-up for 2.5 years) and get a free high-end phone.  That'll be great for Apple's bottom line.

wd4fsu

NotoriousDEV said:

Of course AT&T wants more $$$ for adding 5G service, so they’re hoping to earn it back. 

randominternetperson said:

At least in the US, the carriers are being much more aggressive about subsidizing new phones for new and existing customers this time around.  I know nothing is truly "free" but in practical, dollar-and-cents many customers with a 3-year-old phone can trade it in (and re-up for 2.5 years) and get a free high-end phone.  That'll be great for Apple's bottom line.

Where do you get that?  AT&T isn't charging any more on their plans for 5G access.

netrox

So much for only "10%" will buy it.

MJG33

jido said:

The iPhone 12 mini does have dual SIM, like its siblings. One of the SIMs is an eSIM. 

I expect the remaining models will command a larger share than what Kuo estimates, especially the Mini. Maybe 20-25% of sales

In some markets, yes.  In certain ones like China, the iPhone 12 instead has dual nano-SIM ability -- like some other recent iPhone models. You can confirm by looking at the specs for the Apple China website.  This article hasn't been updated yet but also describes the dual nano-SIM use in those countries as opposed to nano-SIM plus eSIM:
HT209086

bushman4

iPhone 12 will beat iPhone 11 because of 5G
which for most people will have very limited use

Mr_Prez205

iPhone 12 will beat the 11 because this marks my 3rd year with my iPhone X 256GB.  I'll be grabbing the iPhone Pro Max 256GB because I've always felt the X was too small and can't wait to have a truly big screen and the updated camera since I take a ton of pics and record video.  

Never thought I'd spend this much for a cell phone, but in truth these are pocket laptops and at times I've used my cell phones as such when bluetooth connected to my Apple Keyboard when traveling.    

5G is not important, as I mostly use WiFi at home or in the office which are both very fast, but 5G in stadiums when allowed back in would be nice, etc.  

I often think that the analysts don't really get the average customer.  Big screens are just cool, there is a serious status component to high end iPhones, and they easily have both business and personal components in their overall value.  

adonissmu

I think many people have been wanting a smaller phone. This line-up gives people everything they could possibly want from Apple except for a small iPhone Pro.

randominternetperson

adonissmu said:

I think many people have been wanting a smaller phone. This line-up gives people everything they could possibly want from Apple except for a small iPhone Pro.

I agree and I think the fact that the core technology in all 4 models is exactly the same is a big deal.  It's makes the bottom of the lineup just as appealing as the top--for hundreds less.  I expect the 12 mini is going to be a big hit.

fastasleep

adonissmu said:

I think many people have been wanting a smaller phone. This line-up gives people everything they could possibly want from Apple except for a small iPhone Pro.

Pretty sure I would've jumped on a Pro mini. I'm excited for my 12 Pro coming this week but I'm going to guess the squared sides and size means the mini can be operated one-handed much more easily than the current models. I'm not sacrificing the camera though. 

bakerzdosen

I think everyone is a little bit blinded by their own needs and wants. I'm not saying Kuo is right or wrong here, but it's easy to agree with someone when their views align with your own, and difficult to agree when you're not in the "majority" according to an analyst.

And sometimes you just buy something impulsively...

My parents were a little scared to go "bigger" than their iphone 7's, so they thought they'd want minis. But when they really looked at sizes, the 12 is so similar in overally size that they went with it (AT&T's $350 trade in value also helped a LOT.)

Upon announcement, I really thought there was no way I'd go for a 12 (or 12 pro - especially since the camera and lidar didn't seem worth $200 for MY needs.) I have been - and still am - perfectly happy with my X. But again, AT&T's trade in offer got me to reevaluate so my 12 pro will be here (in theory) next week.

So, as someone said earlier in this thread: you really can't underestimate the power of carrier subsidies.

tmay

bakerzdosen said:

I think everyone is a little bit blinded by their own needs and wants. I'm not saying Kuo is right or wrong here, but it's easy to agree with someone when their views align with your own, and difficult to agree when you're not in the "majority" according to an analyst.

And sometimes you just buy something impulsively...

My parents were a little scared to go "bigger" than their iphone 7's, so they thought they'd want minis. But when they really looked at sizes, the 12 is so similar in overally size that they went with it (AT&T's $350 trade in value also helped a LOT.)

Upon announcement, I really thought there was no way I'd go for a 12 (or 12 pro - especially since the camera and lidar didn't seem worth $200 for MY needs.) I have been - and still am - perfectly happy with my X. But again, AT&T's trade in offer got me to reevaluate so my 12 pro will be here (in theory) next week.

So, as someone said earlier in this thread: you really can't underestimate the power of carrier subsidies.

I surmise that 5G is a once in a decade opportunity for the carriers to market "differentiation", which has been pretty much nil to date, so expect these phone deals to continue until the customer churn stops. I suspect that AT&T will come out the worse for it because they have so much debt from their media purchases, and won't be about to build out as fast as Verizon or TMobile.

SpamSandwich

Kuo has supply chain contacts, not internal sales figures from Apple. He’s blowing smoke here.

csbuffs

wd4fsu said:

NotoriousDEV said:

Of course AT&T wants more $$$ for adding 5G service, so they’re hoping to earn it back. 

randominternetperson said:

At least in the US, the carriers are being much more aggressive about subsidizing new phones for new and existing customers this time around.  I know nothing is truly "free" but in practical, dollar-and-cents many customers with a 3-year-old phone can trade it in (and re-up for 2.5 years) and get a free high-end phone.  That'll be great for Apple's bottom line.

Where do you get that?  AT&T isn't charging any more on their plans for 5G access.

I’m guess that person is either grandfathered into a plan or is not on an unlimited plan. As you stated, AT&T is including 5G on all 3 unlimited plans.