COVID outbreak on 'Mythic Quest' set strains ties between crew and producers

Posted:
in iPod + iTunes + AppleTV edited December 2020
Crew members on the set of Apple TV+ original series "Mythic Quest" are venting to media outlets after producers called the production one of the "safest places you can be outside of your homes" despite two reported COVID clusters.

Mythic Quest


Citing sources familiar with the matter, Variety reports show creator and star Rob McElhenney in early December sought to reassure cast and crew of the production's safety. After being informed of a "several" positive cases on Dec. 4, McElhenney suspended production and sent a memo to staff the next day.

"For as alarming as this sounds, we have been expecting this for weeks," the note reads. "The numbers in the county are spiking and consequently our numbers are doing the same. But to date there remains ZERO evidence of any transmission at work. Our set continues to be one of the safest places you can be outside of your homes."

Those claims were characterized as "utter horseshit" by one crew member who contracted the deadly virus. The unnamed person said he was in close contact with others who also tested positive at the CBS Radford lot in Studio City, the report says. There have been four outbreaks at the facility over the past month with at least 12 cases traced back to "Mythic Quest." The show previously reported several cases in November.

A second crew member told Variety that the production initially adhered to COVID protocols like mask mandates and social distancing, but later relapsed to "standard operating procedure[s]" near the end of the shoot.

An environmental consulting firm tasked to oversee the production's coronavirus safety measures maintains the show was in compliance with regulations handed down by scientists and health experts. Lionsgate, which produces "Mythic Quest," echoed the statement, adding that the "health and safety of our Mythic Quest' team is our highest priority."

At least one crew member who tested positive believes they contracted the virus on set. While the production did not intentionally put workers in harm's way, there was pressure to get the job done, the person said. Following an 11 day pause in production, shooting resumed on Wednesday.

McElhenney defended his note to show staff in a statement to Variety.

"Our medical staff has made every effort to ensure the health and safety of our crew," he said. "We have all been working tirelessly to expedite the sharing of clear and accurate information in a timely manner. No decision was made nor information communicated without the science to support it. As all productions are seeing, it's impossible to mitigate one hundred percent of the risk. CTEH, our scientists and public health advisers, and our entire production team have followed all protocols put in place by the CDC, LA County, SAG/AFTRA and the DGA. We will continue to follow the science and work in the safest way possible. We are very proud of the diligence, patience and dedication of our cast and crew."

"Mythic Quest" is a tentpole series for Apple TV+, with Apple ordering a second season before the first aired in February.

Other Apple TV+ productions impacted by the ongoing pandemic include "The Morning Show," "Foundation" and "Suspicion."

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 20
    donjuan said:
    If only Chinese bat virus would shut down all the crap on tv. 
    You mut be fun at parties.
    CloudTalkinhumanaftera11ronncrowleyGraeme000Rayz2016gregoriusmGeorgeBMackurai_kage
  • Reply 2 of 20
    Mythic Dishonest
    hodar
  • Reply 3 of 20
    crowleycrowley Posts: 10,453member
    razorpit said:
    It’s the flu. Grow up. Unless you’re over 80 or have on average 3 comorbidities you have a 99.997% chance of surviving. The gunshot victims bring that average down slightly.
    It's a serious, highly infectious virus that frequently requires hospitalisation, and can be fatal.  Grow up yourself.
    Graeme000ciaGeorgeBMackurai_kage
  • Reply 4 of 20
    fred1fred1 Posts: 1,112member
    razorpit said:
    It’s the flu. Grow up. Unless you’re over 80 or have on average 3 comorbidities you have a 99.997% chance of surviving. The gunshot victims bring that average down slightly.
    Other than the often very painful period of being sick and many cases of permanent health problems, the mortality rate from COVID-19 
    is much higher than from the flu:
    Mortality rate from influenza: .0034% (in the U.S.)
    Mortality rate from COVID-19: 1.8 (in the U.S.)
    Other countries have as high as a 9.1% mortality rate from COVID.
    According to the CDC and Johns Hopkins University.

    If you don't mind getting COVID, that's great.  I don't want to or subject others to it. 
    CloudTalkinGeorgeBMackurai_kagefastasleep
  • Reply 5 of 20
    Rayz2016Rayz2016 Posts: 6,957member
    fred1 said:
    razorpit said:
    It’s the flu. Grow up. Unless you’re over 80 or have on average 3 comorbidities you have a 99.997% chance of surviving. The gunshot victims bring that average down slightly.
    Other than the often very painful period of being sick and many cases of permanent health problems, the mortality rate from COVID-19 
    is much higher than from the flu:
    Mortality rate from influenza: .0034% (in the U.S.)
    Mortality rate from COVID-19: 1.8 (in the U.S.)
    Other countries have as high as a 9.1% mortality rate from COVID.
    According to the CDC and Johns Hopkins University.

    If you don't mind getting COVID, that's great.  I don't want to or subject others to it. 

    Please, don't muddy the waters with facts. They don't like facts.
    edited December 2020 CloudTalkinfred1GeorgeBMackurai_kagefastasleep
  • Reply 6 of 20
    razorpit said:
    It’s the flu. Grow up. Unless you’re over 80 or have on average 3 comorbidities you have a 99.997% chance of surviving. The gunshot victims bring that average down slightly.
    Indeed. If you survived the flu, I daresay most will also survive COVID.
    This is true, but hardly the standard most people use when determining health safety. 
    You could say “most” people survive playing a round of Russian Roulette, but that doesn’t make it safe or reasonable. 
    Go visit a hospital in California right now and then tell us how it’s no big deal...
    GeorgeBMackurai_kage
  • Reply 7 of 20
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 6,861administrator
    razorpit said:
    It’s the flu. Grow up. Unless you’re over 80 or have on average 3 comorbidities you have a 99.997% chance of surviving. The gunshot victims bring that average down slightly.
    You need to look up what are considered "comorbidities."

    Things like "ever had a tooth removed" count. So does "ever been in a car accident," "was ever pregnant," and "had tonsils removed." So is hay fever, ingrown toenail requiring a doctor's visit, or any kind of allergy, ever, at all.

    It is not the flu.
    edited December 2020 GeorgeBMackurai_kage
  • Reply 8 of 20
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 5,043member
    fred1 said:
    razorpit said:
    It’s the flu. Grow up. Unless you’re over 80 or have on average 3 comorbidities you have a 99.997% chance of surviving. The gunshot victims bring that average down slightly.
    Other than the often very painful period of being sick and many cases of permanent health problems, the mortality rate from COVID-19 
    is much higher than from the flu:
    Mortality rate from influenza: .0034% (in the U.S.)
    Mortality rate from COVID-19: 1.8 (in the U.S.)
    Other countries have as high as a 9.1% mortality rate from COVID.
    According to the CDC and Johns Hopkins University.

    If you don't mind getting COVID, that's great.  I don't want to or subject others to it. 
    You are both wrong including those who are publishing these kinds of numbers. Here is how I know why, and it does not take more than elementary school math skills. To Calculate the number % you need two numbers Numerator and Denominator.

    For this elementary school analysis we will assume the Numerator is an accurate and correct number. The question comes in around the Denominator, this is the total infected population. No one, absolutely no one knows this number, everyone siting numbers are making assumptions. They are either using total tested or some other number. Since no one knows the Denominator with any accuracy, that means the % are completely wrong. The other reason the Denominator in the published numbers are wrong is the fact up to 80% of the people who are infected are asymptomatic. They are showing no signs of being sick, therefore, not getting tested and not showing up in any of the data.

    On this simple fact anyone who is believing the numbers which keep getting through around should question their own reasoning skills. Stop blindly believing these number just ask if what the are saying is adding up. Ask how are they determining the total population. I could simple use the 7.5B people on the earth and guess what the % is very low almost non existent. What we do know the real number is between total tested positive and 7.5B you are welcome to pull any number between those two and you will still be wrong. This is what all the so called experts are doing, think about they making decisions on bad data and not tell people that is what they are doing.

    On the Numerator, this number include all deaths even ones some question as just COVID. John Hopkins published a report recently which got pulled (you can read into why that happened) the report said 80% of those who died were destine to die in the coming year, (meaning a Dr gave the patient a poor prognosis of surviving the year). Of the 80% there were 60% with DNR, so their death was immanent. This was all prior to COVID hitting the scene. They also publish a report which show death for all other causes were down equal to the number of deaths due to COVID. Do you really think all of a sudden people stop dying of natural causes and related illnesses just because COVID showed up.

    With that said all movie productions should be shut down they are not essential to people getting through this.  There is so much content out there it will be years before we need to see new stuff. I am actually enjoying watching things I have not see in years or decades. 

    These people need to stop complaining if they do not feel safe, stay home, please stay home we do not need your level of paranoia infect the rest of us. 
    edited December 2020 muthuk_vanalingam
  • Reply 9 of 20
    15-20% of people infected with COVID-19 require hospitalization costing on average $35,000 for an insured patient, $78,000 for an uninsured or out of network patient. I don't know about others but not an expense I would want to put on others let alone have to pay for both my wife or myself.
    Thank you to all of the healthcare workers and their support staffs that are bearing the burden caused by the Deniers.
    edited December 2020 GeorgeBMackurai_kage
  • Reply 10 of 20
    crowleycrowley Posts: 10,453member
    Quibbling about the "true mortality rate" when hundreds of thousands of people are dying, an order of magnitude more than what you'd expect to die from influenza and pneumonia combined.  Yep, that's where we're at, "well actually"-ing about percentages.  SMH.
    GeorgeBMackurai_kage
  • Reply 11 of 20
    ciacia Posts: 252member
    I like Mythic Quest.  It's my second fav show on ATV+ after Ted Lasso.
  • Reply 12 of 20
    GeorgeBMacGeorgeBMac Posts: 11,421member
    crowley said:
    razorpit said:
    It’s the flu. Grow up. Unless you’re over 80 or have on average 3 comorbidities you have a 99.997% chance of surviving. The gunshot victims bring that average down slightly.
    It's a serious, highly infectious virus that frequently requires hospitalisation, and can be fatal.  Grow up yourself.

    It was just revealed that the head of White House security lost the lower part of his leg to Covid and a toe on his other foot.   It does more than just hospitalize and kill people, it can have very serious, life changing impacts.

    It was attempted to be covered up but his family started a Go-Fund-Me page to pay off his enormous medical bills.
    edited December 2020 kurai_kage
  • Reply 13 of 20
    fred1fred1 Posts: 1,112member
    maestro64 said:
    fred1 said:
    razorpit said:
    It’s the flu. Grow up. Unless you’re over 80 or have on average 3 comorbidities you have a 99.997% chance of surviving. The gunshot victims bring that average down slightly.
    Other than the often very painful period of being sick and many cases of permanent health problems, the mortality rate from COVID-19 
    is much higher than from the flu:
    Mortality rate from influenza: .0034% (in the U.S.)
    Mortality rate from COVID-19: 1.8 (in the U.S.)
    Other countries have as high as a 9.1% mortality rate from COVID.
    According to the CDC and Johns Hopkins University.

    If you don't mind getting COVID, that's great.  I don't want to or subject others to it. 
    You are both wrong including those who are publishing these kinds of numbers. Here is how I know why, and it does not take more than elementary school math skills. To Calculate the number % you need two numbers Numerator and Denominator.

    For this elementary school analysis we will assume the Numerator is an accurate and correct number. The question comes in around the Denominator, this is the total infected population. No one, absolutely no one knows this number, everyone siting numbers are making assumptions. They are either using total tested or some other number. Since no one knows the Denominator with any accuracy, that means the % are completely wrong. The other reason the Denominator in the published numbers are wrong is the fact up to 80% of the people who are infected are asymptomatic. They are showing no signs of being sick, therefore, not getting tested and not showing up in any of the data.

    On this simple fact anyone who is believing the numbers which keep getting through around should question their own reasoning skills. Stop blindly believing these number just ask if what the are saying is adding up. Ask how are they determining the total population. I could simple use the 7.5B people on the earth and guess what the % is very low almost non existent. What we do know the real number is between total tested positive and 7.5B you are welcome to pull any number between those two and you will still be wrong. This is what all the so called experts are doing, think about they making decisions on bad data and not tell people that is what they are doing.

    On the Numerator, this number include all deaths even ones some question as just COVID. John Hopkins published a report recently which got pulled (you can read into why that happened) the report said 80% of those who died were destine to die in the coming year, (meaning a Dr gave the patient a poor prognosis of surviving the year). Of the 80% there were 60% with DNR, so their death was immanent. This was all prior to COVID hitting the scene. They also publish a report which show death for all other causes were down equal to the number of deaths due to COVID. Do you really think all of a sudden people stop dying of natural causes and related illnesses just because COVID showed up.

    With that said all movie productions should be shut down they are not essential to people getting through this.  There is so much content out there it will be years before we need to see new stuff. I am actually enjoying watching things I have not see in years or decades. 

    These people need to stop complaining if they do not feel safe, stay home, please stay home we do not need your level of paranoia infect the rest of us. 
    I agree with you, but my point was the relative number of deaths from the flu vs. from COVID, not the absolute numbers.  Yes, there's a huge amount of controversy about how to count cases and deaths, but even if it's half as many of each as reported, I still don't want COVID!  So I'll take the very simple precautions that have been put in place, mainly out of respect for others, but also to protect myself.  
  • Reply 14 of 20
    hodarhodar Posts: 357member
    crowley said:
    razorpit said:
    It’s the flu. Grow up. Unless you’re over 80 or have on average 3 comorbidities you have a 99.997% chance of surviving. The gunshot victims bring that average down slightly.
    It's a serious, highly infectious virus that frequently requires hospitalisation, and can be fatal.  Grow up yourself.

    The average life expectancy in the US is 78.6 years of age.  It has remained constant for nearly a decade.
    The average death from Wuhan Flu is 80.5 yrs of age.
    The survival rate is 98.7% or better, provided you don't have 2.7+ comorbidities (such as heart disease, cancer, pulmonary failure, etc) or are over 70

    We STILL do not have a COVID test that isolates and tests for the COVID-19 virus, so we are using a PCR test with 80%+ false positives.  The vaccine is the FIRST RNA based vaccine we have ever made, and it's approved for EMERGENCY use by the FDA, it's not APPROVED by the FDA, there is a HUGE difference.
    Take it if you want; I will trust my own immune system, odds are that I'm one of the 40-60% asymptomatic and have had it already.
    For this, we are shutting down
  • Reply 15 of 20
    hodarhodar Posts: 357member
    razorpit said:
    It’s the flu. Grow up. Unless you’re over 80 or have on average 3 comorbidities you have a 99.997% chance of surviving. The gunshot victims bring that average down slightly.
    You need to look up what are considered "comorbidities."

    Things like "ever had a tooth removed" count. So does "ever been in a car accident," "was ever pregnant," and "had tonsils removed." So is hay fever, ingrown toenail requiring a doctor's visit, or any kind of allergy, ever, at all.

    It is not the flu.

    Really?  And you are a Adminisrator and don't know how to use Google? 

    Allow me to help

    What does “comorbidity” mean?

    Comorbidity means more than one disease or condition is present in the same person at the same time. Conditions described as comorbidities are often chronic or long-term conditions. Other names to describe comorbid conditions are coexisting or co-occurring conditions and sometimes also “multimorbidity” or “multiple chronic conditions.”

    Arthritis is common among people with other chronic conditions.

    In the total US population, 22.7% of adults have arthritis.2 Arthritis is even more common among adults with other chronic conditions. In 2013–2015, the unadjusted prevalence of arthritis among adults with the following chronic conditions was:

    • Obesity (31%).
    • Diabetes (47%).
    • Heart disease (49%).

    https://www.cdc.gov/arthritis/data_statistics/comorbidities.htm


    So, NO it's not a toothache, it's not pregnancy, it's not anything even CLOSE to what you said it was.  If you are going to use your Admin badge - TRY to be accurate.  this took about 5 seconds to look up, and a few minutes to post.




  • Reply 16 of 20
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 6,861administrator
    hodar said:
    razorpit said:
    It’s the flu. Grow up. Unless you’re over 80 or have on average 3 comorbidities you have a 99.997% chance of surviving. The gunshot victims bring that average down slightly.
    You need to look up what are considered "comorbidities."

    Things like "ever had a tooth removed" count. So does "ever been in a car accident," "was ever pregnant," and "had tonsils removed." So is hay fever, ingrown toenail requiring a doctor's visit, or any kind of allergy, ever, at all.

    It is not the flu.

    Really?  And you are a Adminisrator and don't know how to use Google? 

    Allow me to help

    What does “comorbidity” mean?

    Comorbidity means more than one disease or condition is present in the same person at the same time. Conditions described as comorbidities are often chronic or long-term conditions. Other names to describe comorbid conditions are coexisting or co-occurring conditions and sometimes also “multimorbidity” or “multiple chronic conditions.”

    Arthritis is common among people with other chronic conditions.

    In the total US population, 22.7% of adults have arthritis.2 Arthritis is even more common among adults with other chronic conditions. In 2013–2015, the unadjusted prevalence of arthritis among adults with the following chronic conditions was:

    • Obesity (31%).
    • Diabetes (47%).
    • Heart disease (49%).

    https://www.cdc.gov/arthritis/data_statistics/comorbidities.htm


    So, NO it's not a toothache, it's not pregnancy, it's not anything even CLOSE to what you said it was.  If you are going to use your Admin badge - TRY to be accurate.  this took about 5 seconds to look up, and a few minutes to post.




    Nope, they absolutely are, as reported to the CDC.

    Also as per the CDC, and COVID reporting guidelines (not the arthritis page), all comorbidity data reported with COVID deaths includes ALL ICD-10 codes associated with any prior diagnosis of the person diagnosed with COVID that may or may not have present effects. It's right there in what you linked, which I bolded in your quote. You're welcome to Google what an ICD-10 code is, if you'd like, but be sure to be complete. Citing something relevant helps too.

    Everything I listed is a reportable comorbidity according to the CDC. So are car accidents, and so forth.

    Allow me to help: You should be sure that your own information is complete and not cherry-picked before you talk crap. You should also make sure that it says what you think it does. Fun fact? Arthritis is a co-morbidity for COVID.

    This system is not ideal. For instance, I fail to see what my own ingrown toenail surgery from 1993 has anything to do with the diagnosis, but when I dealt with COVID, it was reported as said "pre-existing condition" because of the relevant scarring and procedure documented in my record. Had I died from COVID, my occupational radiation exposure that ended in 1999, my possible exposure to asbestos in 1998, the toe surgery, and other factors would have been listed as co-morbidities.

    On a personal note, my wife worked in medical billing for about 20 years. My sister in law still does, and she's going on 30 years of doing it. So sure, pick something about arthritis that doesn't say what it says you think it does to try and prove a point that you're wrong about.
    edited December 2020 bageljoeykurai_kagefastasleepGeorgeBMac
  • Reply 17 of 20
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 5,043member
    fred1 said:
    maestro64 said:
    fred1 said:
    razorpit said:
    It’s the flu. Grow up. Unless you’re over 80 or have on average 3 comorbidities you have a 99.997% chance of surviving. The gunshot victims bring that average down slightly.
    Other than the often very painful period of being sick and many cases of permanent health problems, the mortality rate from COVID-19 
    is much higher than from the flu:
    Mortality rate from influenza: .0034% (in the U.S.)
    Mortality rate from COVID-19: 1.8 (in the U.S.)
    Other countries have as high as a 9.1% mortality rate from COVID.
    According to the CDC and Johns Hopkins University.

    If you don't mind getting COVID, that's great.  I don't want to or subject others to it. 
    You are both wrong including those who are publishing these kinds of numbers. Here is how I know why, and it does not take more than elementary school math skills. To Calculate the number % you need two numbers Numerator and Denominator.

    For this elementary school analysis we will assume the Numerator is an accurate and correct number. The question comes in around the Denominator, this is the total infected population. No one, absolutely no one knows this number, everyone siting numbers are making assumptions. They are either using total tested or some other number. Since no one knows the Denominator with any accuracy, that means the % are completely wrong. The other reason the Denominator in the published numbers are wrong is the fact up to 80% of the people who are infected are asymptomatic. They are showing no signs of being sick, therefore, not getting tested and not showing up in any of the data.

    On this simple fact anyone who is believing the numbers which keep getting through around should question their own reasoning skills. Stop blindly believing these number just ask if what the are saying is adding up. Ask how are they determining the total population. I could simple use the 7.5B people on the earth and guess what the % is very low almost non existent. What we do know the real number is between total tested positive and 7.5B you are welcome to pull any number between those two and you will still be wrong. This is what all the so called experts are doing, think about they making decisions on bad data and not tell people that is what they are doing.

    On the Numerator, this number include all deaths even ones some question as just COVID. John Hopkins published a report recently which got pulled (you can read into why that happened) the report said 80% of those who died were destine to die in the coming year, (meaning a Dr gave the patient a poor prognosis of surviving the year). Of the 80% there were 60% with DNR, so their death was immanent. This was all prior to COVID hitting the scene. They also publish a report which show death for all other causes were down equal to the number of deaths due to COVID. Do you really think all of a sudden people stop dying of natural causes and related illnesses just because COVID showed up.

    With that said all movie productions should be shut down they are not essential to people getting through this.  There is so much content out there it will be years before we need to see new stuff. I am actually enjoying watching things I have not see in years or decades. 

    These people need to stop complaining if they do not feel safe, stay home, please stay home we do not need your level of paranoia infect the rest of us. 
    I agree with you, but my point was the relative number of deaths from the flu vs. from COVID, not the absolute numbers.  Yes, there's a huge amount of controversy about how to count cases and deaths, but even if it's half as many of each as reported, I still don't want COVID!  So I'll take the very simple precautions that have been put in place, mainly out of respect for others, but also to protect myself.  
    You and no one else can do a comparative analysis to the Flu or another type of infection or disease floating around, why it is simple the method of data collection is completely different in all these cases and vary around the US and the world. The problem with stats is what data is include or excluded. We do know with Flu or pneumonia the only time these were counted as death is if the person had no other health related issues. People including kids do die from just getting the flu or pneumonia. Most people do not rust to the hospital if they have the Flu not necessarily the case with COVID, because of the FUD people are rushing to the hospital, so death rate could be actually lower because of this. 

    The problem with COVID numbers, most everyone is still using early on % when the Denominator was relative small, compare to the Numerator, they are testing people at 1M people per day so the Denominator is growing far faster then the Numerator, by this mere fact the % will continue to drop. The people pushing the higher % do not like this fact about numbers. Again question why they are not providing real time number but some theoretical % of what it might be.  

    The problem gets even more complicated when trying to do analysis and researcher know this but like to leave this out of the discussion. I will give you simple example both my dad and father-in-law died recently. My dad had Alzheimer and was in memory care facility, when he die the nurse was right there and will tell you he died from a heart attack, talking one second and slumped over the next, no one doubts this. But since we was in facility under medical care the cause of death was Alzheimer due to the diagnosis not what happen, no autopsy required. We know this was not the cause since he was in good health and had not begun to decline due to Alzheimer which does happen. My Father-in-law pass away at home with his family around him, had lots of heath issues, because he just stop breathing and was under hospice care, cause of death natural causes. Was it the CHF or Diabetes or High Blood Pressure that really was the cause of death. Unless you are in a hospital being treated for an illness and there was an autopsy, the cause of death listed for most people are not accurate. If either of them died and tested positive for COVID what do you think would be the cause of death. BTW all deaths are now required to be tested for COVID, because there is this fear the number is under counted.

    In the case of the John Hopkins analysis, they look at people's actually medial records they did not rely on the death records, so they did take it one step further.

    I will share this fact with you, as of last month the total deaths in the US for all causes was tracking to be less then the total deaths in 2018 which was bad flu season. Were you afraid to get any number of the various flu strains plus I believe there are 7 or so COVID virus that come and go any give year. If you have serious underlying issues, I understand your concern and you should do everything to protect yourself, but why didn't you exercise the same level of concern in the past. Now that my father-in-law passed away, the family is not as concern about COVID, no one wanted to be the one to give the 90 year old COVID. At this point there is no we associate with which are high risk. 
    edited December 2020
  • Reply 18 of 20
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 6,861administrator
    maestro64 said:
    fred1 said:
    maestro64 said:
    fred1 said:
    razorpit said:
    It’s the flu. Grow up. Unless you’re over 80 or have on average 3 comorbidities you have a 99.997% chance of surviving. The gunshot victims bring that average down slightly.
    Other than the often very painful period of being sick and many cases of permanent health problems, the mortality rate from COVID-19 
    is much higher than from the flu:
    Mortality rate from influenza: .0034% (in the U.S.)
    Mortality rate from COVID-19: 1.8 (in the U.S.)
    Other countries have as high as a 9.1% mortality rate from COVID.
    According to the CDC and Johns Hopkins University.

    If you don't mind getting COVID, that's great.  I don't want to or subject others to it. 
    You are both wrong including those who are publishing these kinds of numbers. Here is how I know why, and it does not take more than elementary school math skills. To Calculate the number % you need two numbers Numerator and Denominator.

    For this elementary school analysis we will assume the Numerator is an accurate and correct number. The question comes in around the Denominator, this is the total infected population. No one, absolutely no one knows this number, everyone siting numbers are making assumptions. They are either using total tested or some other number. Since no one knows the Denominator with any accuracy, that means the % are completely wrong. The other reason the Denominator in the published numbers are wrong is the fact up to 80% of the people who are infected are asymptomatic. They are showing no signs of being sick, therefore, not getting tested and not showing up in any of the data.

    On this simple fact anyone who is believing the numbers which keep getting through around should question their own reasoning skills. Stop blindly believing these number just ask if what the are saying is adding up. Ask how are they determining the total population. I could simple use the 7.5B people on the earth and guess what the % is very low almost non existent. What we do know the real number is between total tested positive and 7.5B you are welcome to pull any number between those two and you will still be wrong. This is what all the so called experts are doing, think about they making decisions on bad data and not tell people that is what they are doing.

    On the Numerator, this number include all deaths even ones some question as just COVID. John Hopkins published a report recently which got pulled (you can read into why that happened) the report said 80% of those who died were destine to die in the coming year, (meaning a Dr gave the patient a poor prognosis of surviving the year). Of the 80% there were 60% with DNR, so their death was immanent. This was all prior to COVID hitting the scene. They also publish a report which show death for all other causes were down equal to the number of deaths due to COVID. Do you really think all of a sudden people stop dying of natural causes and related illnesses just because COVID showed up.

    With that said all movie productions should be shut down they are not essential to people getting through this.  There is so much content out there it will be years before we need to see new stuff. I am actually enjoying watching things I have not see in years or decades. 

    These people need to stop complaining if they do not feel safe, stay home, please stay home we do not need your level of paranoia infect the rest of us. 
    I agree with you, but my point was the relative number of deaths from the flu vs. from COVID, not the absolute numbers.  Yes, there's a huge amount of controversy about how to count cases and deaths, but even if it's half as many of each as reported, I still don't want COVID!  So I'll take the very simple precautions that have been put in place, mainly out of respect for others, but also to protect myself.  
    You and no one else can do a comparative analysis to the Flu or another type of infection or disease floating around, why it is simple the method of data collection is completely different in all these cases and vary around the US and the world. The problem with stats is what data is include or excluded. We do know with Flu or pneumonia the only time this were counted as death is if the person had no other health related issues. People including kids do die from just getting the flu or pneumonia. Most people do not rust to the hospital if they have the Flu.

    The problem with COVID numbers, most everyone is still using early on % when the Denominator was relative small, compare to the Numerator, they are testing people at 1M people per day so the Denominator is growing far faster then the Numerator, by this mere fact the % will continue to drop. The people pushing the higher % do not like this fact about numbers. Again question why they are not providing real time number but some theoretical % of what it might be.  

    The problem gets even more complicated when trying to do analysis and researcher know this but like to leave this out of the discussion. I will give you simple example both my dad and father-in-law died recently. My dad had Alzheimer and was in memory care facility, when he die the nurse was right there and will tell you he died from a heart attack, talking one second and slumped over the next, no one doubts this. But since we was in facility under medical care the cause of death was Alzheimer due to the diagnosis not what happen, no autopsy required. We know this was not the cause since he was in good health and had not begun to decline due to Alzheimer which does happen. My Father-in-law pass away at home with his family around him, had lots of heath issues, because he just stop breathing and was under hospice care, cause of death natural causes. Was it the CHF or Diabetes or High Blood Pressure that really was the cause of death. Unless you are in a hospital being treated for an illness and there was an autopsy, the cause of death listed for most people are not accurate. If either of them died and tested positive for COVID what do you think would be the cause of death. BTW all deaths are now required to be tested for COVID, because there is this fear the number is under counted.

    In the case of the John Hopkins analysis, they look at people's actually medial records they did not rely on the death records, so they did take it one step further.

    I will share this fact with you, as of last month the total deaths in the US for all causes was tracking to be less then the total deaths in 2018 which was bad flu season. Were you afraid to get any number of the various flu strains plus I believe there are 7 or so COVID virus that come and go any give year. If you have serious underlying issues, I understand your concern and you should do everything to protect yourself, but why didn't you exercise the same level of concern in the past. Now that my father-in-law passed away, the family is not as concern about COVID, no one wanted to be the one to give the 90 year old COVID. At this point there is no we associate with which are high risk. 
    2018 was indeed a bad flu year. If you're referring to a three-week period, you may be correct. But, it's a strange argument point to make that "if you weren't worried about the flu you shouldn't be worried about COVID" since that's about a three-week period versus about a 48-week period and counting which is the real issue.

    edited December 2020 bageljoeyfastasleepGeorgeBMac
  • Reply 19 of 20
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 5,043member

    2018 was indeed a bad flu year. If you're referring to a three-week period, you may be correct. But, it's a strange argument point to make that "if you weren't worried about the flu you shouldn't be worried about COVID" since that's about a three-week period versus about a 48-week period and counting which is the real issue.

    Notice the chart says Predicted death with some actual observed, this chart is miss leading at best unless you understand what predicted means.

    I was talking about actual total deaths not some theoretical prediction. One of the reason's US total reported deaths in 2020 were down was due to car accidents, those are down along with other things due to everyone working from home whether this will hold true is still open. Now it is true the government will not have all the data for 2020 until mid 2021 so 2020 number will increase the question, will it be the inline with prior years or will it be significantly higher. We will have to wait and see. Again ask why the CDC is not showing actual numbers for the time period where they have the numbers verses some prediction. Also the 2020 predicated number due to COVID were actually much higher than this is now showing verses the actual numbers. Remember they were predicting 2.5M more deaths due to COVID, why isn't this chart showing those numbers. Was this some sort of prediction they were using to determine if something unusual was happening. Also notice if this was a prediction due to all causes, why did January 2020 not show some sort of spike as in Jan 18, or were they that confident 2020 would look more like their predicted 2019. If you look close they were showing a beginning of a spike in Jan 2020 then they flatted it out, it was coming in higher then Jan 2018. I would recommend unless you understand the data behind charts and source of the data do not trying justify what is happening in this chart.

    Deaths by year

    2018: 2,839,205

    2019: 2,855,000

    2020: 2,033,736 through Sep 24.

    I also read the CDC provided new number for 2020 putting it over to 2.8M actual deaths since people were looking at the real time data and saying things were not adding up. I am curious how the CDC said they need 6 month after the year end to know they have all the correct information and now they seem to know now for the entire YTD.

    My point was that every year there are things that cause death and 2020 is not shaping up to any worse for people. Everyday you walk out the door and we all assume some level of risk that you may die or something will happen that will lead to your death. In the past very few people were ever taking extreme measures to so how reduce their risks. My mom use to say bad thing never happen to her because she worried about those things. She never considered maybe those bad things were never going to happen. Today we have people thinking if they worry or take extra precaution it will not happen. You can not prevent something which will never happen and you can not prove it was or was not going to happen.

  • Reply 20 of 20
    Mike WuertheleMike Wuerthele Posts: 6,861administrator
    maestro64 said:

    2018 was indeed a bad flu year. If you're referring to a three-week period, you may be correct. But, it's a strange argument point to make that "if you weren't worried about the flu you shouldn't be worried about COVID" since that's about a three-week period versus about a 48-week period and counting which is the real issue.

    Notice the chart says Predicted death with some actual observed, this chart is miss leading at best unless you understand what predicted means.

    I was talking about actual total deaths not some theoretical prediction. One of the reason's US total reported deaths in 2020 were down was due to car accidents, those are down along with other things due to everyone working from home whether this will hold true is still open. Now it is true the government will not have all the data for 2020 until mid 2021 so 2020 number will increase the question, will it be the inline with prior years or will it be significantly higher. We will have to wait and see. Again ask why the CDC is not showing actual numbers for the time period where they have the numbers verses some prediction. Also the 2020 predicated number due to COVID were actually much higher than this is now showing verses the actual numbers. Remember they were predicting 2.5M more deaths due to COVID, why isn't this chart showing those numbers. Was this some sort of prediction they were using to determine if something unusual was happening. Also notice if this was a prediction due to all causes, why did January 2020 not show some sort of spike as in Jan 18, or were they that confident 2020 would look more like their predicted 2019. If you look close they were showing a beginning of a spike in Jan 2020 then they flatted it out, it was coming in higher then Jan 2018. I would recommend unless you understand the data behind charts and source of the data do not trying justify what is happening in this chart.

    Deaths by year

    2018: 2,839,205

    2019: 2,855,000

    2020: 2,033,736 through Sep 24.

    I also read the CDC provided new number for 2020 putting it over to 2.8M actual deaths since people were looking at the real time data and saying things were not adding up. I am curious how the CDC said they need 6 month after the year end to know they have all the correct information and now they seem to know now for the entire YTD.

    My point was that every year there are things that cause death and 2020 is not shaping up to any worse for people. Everyday you walk out the door and we all assume some level of risk that you may die or something will happen that will lead to your death. In the past very few people were ever taking extreme measures to so how reduce their risks. My mom use to say bad thing never happen to her because she worried about those things. She never considered maybe those bad things were never going to happen. Today we have people thinking if they worry or take extra precaution it will not happen. You can not prevent something which will never happen and you can not prove it was or was not going to happen.

    In regards to the bolded statement, you hit on why in the previous sentence. The nature of death reporting state by state, county by county, city by city, is such, that even five years later, the actual numbers will wobble a bit, with the wobble less as the years progress. I am fully aware of the data behind the charts and the source of the data.

    In regards to the numbers, we'll see how it goes., But, I completely disagree with your statement about "2020 is not shaping up to any worse for people." While I agree with your risk assessment statement start, the end is a little wobbly.

    On that note, I am headed AFK for the better part of the weekend to deal with the affairs of somebody who died this week from the virus. Have a good one.
    edited December 2020
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