I worked for AT&T in the 80s and 90s. There use to be wafer fabs in Reading, Allentown and Breinigsville, PA and another in Orlando. They shut down one after another and used TSMC for fabrication. This was a choice based on financials without regard to the long term impact. Thanks to corporate America we're now in the situation where we have self inflicted this. And now US companies want tax payer money? We're screwed. We did this to ourselves. Our government and corporate leaders sold us out
I worked for AT&T in the 80s and 90s. There use to be wafer fabs in Reading, Allentown and Breinigsville, PA and another in Orlando. They shut down one after another and used TSMC for fabrication. This was a choice based on financials without regard to the long term impact. Thanks to corporate America we're now in the situation where we have self inflicted this. And now US companies want tax payer money? We're screwed. We did this to ourselves. Our government and corporate leaders sold us out Oh
This is not true.
Oh for fucks sake waveparticle, do you not have access to internet search where you live? Maybe you can ask Xi, the all knowing.
What is left out, making this graph grossly misleading, is the context of the value of the wafers at the leading edge. This is where TSMC, followed by Samsung, and less so, Intel reside. It should also be noted that most of the design for these nodes occurs in the U.S.
The EU will have difficulty introducing leading edge nodes if they are not a primary designer of the silicon that is fabbed.
China at 14.4% has a mere rounding error of "leading edge" capacity at an inefficient version of 7nm, and is blocked by the U.S. and its allies from obtaining the equipment and building the supply chain necessary to compete.
It anything, Apple has ridden the wave of TSMC success, while providing the bulk of its revenues to continue that.
Context?
How much of the world's wafer output corresponds to cutting edge nodes?
Less than 2%? And falling?
By your argument, sanctions on sales of advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology to China are of little concern...and yet, that is a real and significant imposition on China's growth, isn't it.
Fun facts;
California is set to surpass Germany as the world's fourth largest economy;
The concern is related to the damage the US is doing to its own industry. That is self harm.
US semi-conductor interests have taken a huge hit due to these unilateral extra-territorial sanctions.
In market value loss, the damage has been huge. In a more direct context the damage has also been huge. Lost revenues.
How is the industry supposed to move forward if it can't sell into its largest market? How is it supposed to generate funding for R&D?
Applied Research and NVIDIA will each take a $400mn hit in just one quarter.
And to make matters worse, the whole policy only serves to accelerate the inevitable. Chinese technological progress. Remember. No policymaker has ever mentioned 'stopping' China's progress. Simply slowing it down. Well, there is a short term and long term reading of that but the consensus is clear. China will get there.
Worse still, non-US interests have also been impacted because the rugs have been pulled out from under their feet. As a result, US technology is toxic to them and they are working to get it out of their products.
With the latest 'sanctions' it is actually worse because employees with US citizenship are probably going to lose their jobs at Chinese companies.
An executive at a Chinese semi-conductor company:
“Now we are not just trying to build up ‘US-free’ manufacturing lines but also de-Americanise the teams,” said the executive.
That's from a paywalled FT article.
Let's be clear, absolutely ALL semi-conductor companies want to do business with Chinese companies. Bar none.
Having to halt sales simply because their products contain a tiny amount of US technology has opened their eyes to extra-territorial interference. The same applies to government.
Everyone is reducing their dependence on US technology.
How does that look for US interests? Bread for today but hunger for tomorrow?
Then we have to deal with the completely crackpot ideas of some prominent US representatives. What you are about to read must have come from people who are literally detached from the real world.
They want Biden to interfere in Chinese sovereign activities on Chinese soil.
Read to believe! (and they are citing Bloomberg - yikes!)
"Dear President Biden,
We call on the administration to take immediate action to halt Huawei’s attempt to build the Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Company (PXW) semiconductor foundry. This Huawei-aligned foundry is designed to fatally undermine the U.S. strategy to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) bid to dominate global 5G markets and strengthen its intelligence and repression apparatus.
Bloomberg recently published evidence that Huawei began construction over seven months ago on a factory where PXW is expected to eventually mass produce chips as advanced as 14 nanometers and 7 nanometers. Almost all of these chips are expected to be sold to Huawei, and PXW reportedly has already ordered the advanced equipment necessary to build these chips. This would represent a dangerous leap in Chinese semiconductor manufacturing, as Chinese chipmakers have thus far only been able to produce 7-nanometer chips in limited quantities. With these new chips for its base stations, Huawei could resume its march towards 5G market dominance, and the CCP will advance its plan to control global telecommunications and extend its economic espionage and repression."
Not a word about 'national security' there. Just 5G dominance (commercial and technological interests). The espionage line is just more craziness.
LOL!
Uhm, "economic espionage and repression" are in fact valid National Security issues.
You are free to believe what you want, and for fuck sake, why would anyone want Huawei to "resume its march towards 5G market dominance".
Blackburn wants President Biden to step in and block delivery of any advanced equipment that has been ordered from the West for PXW. More to the point, why is anyone allowing advanced equipment sales to China at this point in time. I agree with that action. China is a threat to Taiwan.
According to Bloomberg sources, the Chinese tech conglomerate is now supporting a small startup ordering equipment for a semiconductor manufacturing plant. Purportedly, the new semiconductor plant, called Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Co. (known as PXW) and run by a former Huawei executive, will be built close to the Huawei headquarters as it is expected to be the plant’s biggest customer, buying “most, if not all, of its output.”
If successful, this would allow Huawei to regain its footing and begin producing devices in earnest again. However, it remains to be seen if PXW will violate U.S. trade sanctions in supplying Huawei, as that would limit what equipment can be purchased by the company. Moreover, it is reported that the company’s first products, expected in 2025, will be on 28-nanometer technology leaving the plant six or more generations behind.
Given the accusations and evidence against Huawei, it will be difficult for any company to affiliate with the denylisted organization. Some of the U.S. restrictions may extend to this new company and prevent PXW from getting off the ground. However, if not, it still sounds like Huawei will be comparatively stuck in the stone age of semiconductors for a little while.
China continues to be a threat to the West and the existing rules of order. That's on Xi and his play for absolute power in China.
Fucking Europeans. Schotz will probably allow China's COSCO to own a portion of port facilities, even though his ministers are telling him no. When will they learn...
Huawei already has 5G dominance. Where have you been? Even now, it leads the market and has already 'de-Americanised' its ICT 5G product stack. It is now simply building out capacity.
China has no recent history of direct meddling in sovereign states through military action. It considers Taiwan part of China but apart from that there is no outward threat that has been singled out to the rest of the world.
'Repression' has nothing to do with US national security.
Apart from US 'sanctions' the rest of the world is eager to sell its technology to China. Yes, ASML and all the US tech industry included. Let that sink in.
You say you don't know why anyone would want to sell advanced tech to China. You are in a very small minority. The CEO of ASML has said more than once that the US approach will not work. Weaponising technology, forcing breakage of international supply lines and forcing sovereign nations to follow US orders or else has been a wake up call to the tech world.
There is nothing anyone is doing with the foundry equipment at that new site that contravenes US sanctions. Do you think ASML et al would risk that?
However, that said, US EDA software makers have said that they would rather Chinese companies 'cracked' their software than see a Chinese rival emerge from the sanctions. Too late for that I'm afraid as that ball is already rolling too.
The request to Biden just goes to show how out of touch with reality those folks are. Try to imagine things the other way around?
It is crazy.
Huawei alone has invested in over 40 semiconductor companies with the aim of rejigging its supply lines (all of them in detriment to US semiconductor industries).
China’s ‘secret police stations’ in UK must be investigated, say MPs
London and Glasgow claimed to be among list of operations to target critics and dissidents
China has been doing this around the world for quite some time. Have to make sure the diaspora don't forget who their bosses are. More than that, the influence operations that China conducts.
You might want to post about that, with your first hand knowledge and alll.
Absolutely nothing to do with technology and my knowledge of China is far less than that of the US and I'm definitely not involved with the Chinese Police. LOL.
Stay on topic!
I never stated that you were involved with the Chinese police, but you have an affection for Huawei, and a defense of China's authoritarianism that is exceptional for AI posters. It blinds you to all of the harm that China has done, and will do, to the world, which is why I am a proponent of constraining China.
As I noted, the Western world is no longer enamored with China, and is resisting China's authoritarian impulse to change the current rules of order that have been the basis for an effective global economy since the end of WWII.
Perhaps if Huawei wasn't so closely linked with the CPC, I might give you more leeway in your views. Alas, China is Huawei, and Huawei is China.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
I have never defended authoritarian governments.
I know a lot about Huawei.
That knowledge allows me point out inaccuracies in what many people spout off about the company. Most of which are about as far from the truth as they can get, and you yourself have been found wanting over and over again.
The western world was never enamored with China in the first place. The western world as you put it and China are basically trading and investment partners. If anything the opposite of what you claim is true as China is pushing development and trading links with Africa and Latin America. The US started an ill thought out trade war with China, in part, to force China to do even more business with it.
If we put the focus on Huawei and the rest of the world, it's the same story. Watch the Huawei Connect 2022 video from this very month in Paris with members of all the big companies and EU parliament members in attendance to see what's happening here.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
That statement is factually incorrect, if not an outright lie on your part, and you know it's a lie, because you live in the West, where we have a nominal free press. That free press does not exist in China, so how would you verify anything that Huawei states? You can't
China has often been criticized for a lack of transparency, especially with regard to its economic and trade policies. While in many cases these criticisms are valid, it belies the fact that in other instances, China is remarkably open and transparent about its intentions and ambitions.
Such is the case with China’s “Opinion on Strengthening the United Front Work of the Private Economy in the New Era,” recently released by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (and further elaborated on by President Xi Jinping himself). This document tells us in no uncertain terms that Chinese private companies will be increasingly called upon to conduct their operations in tight coordination with governmental policy objectives and ideologies. The rest of the world should take note.
A Different Vision of “Private” Business
The 5,000 word “opinion” aims to ratchet-up the role and influence of the CCP within the private sector in order “to better focus the wisdom and strength of the private businesspeople on the goal and mission to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The objective is to establish a “united front” between business and government and facilitate the “enhancement of the party’s leadership over the private economy.” According to the plan, “private economic figures are to be more closely united around the party,” thereby achieving “a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee on political stand, political direction, political principles, and political roads.”
Contrast that with the free market;
All of this stands in stark contrast to long-accepted concepts of how private companies function in a free market. The overriding purpose of business, according to these traditional precepts, is to earn profits through the provision of value-added products and services, in response to marketplace signals and under the constraint of basic economic realities. Government ideology plays no role in that equation.
For the most part, Western governments only regulate private business, for a variety of reasons including National Security, but they are almost never directly involved in the operation of those businesses, and certainly not anything like the CPC is involved in businesses such as Huawei, which are part and parcel of their state security apparatus.
Ultimately, the current marketplace between the West and China has become distorted, and this coincides with Xi era of China rolling back freedoms enjoyed by the Chinese people. You seem to place the blame squarely on the West, when in fact, Xi's complete control of the Chinese government is an obvious issue in the West, as noted by the PEW poll that I posted earlier.
As for your statement that you do not defend authoritarian governments, I have seen a number of your previous statements in denial of China's human rights violations, posted here on Ai, even against overwhelming information that it is occurring, and documented by the same EU that you so strongly support otherwise.
What is left out, making this graph grossly misleading, is the context of the value of the wafers at the leading edge. This is where TSMC, followed by Samsung, and less so, Intel reside. It should also be noted that most of the design for these nodes occurs in the U.S.
The EU will have difficulty introducing leading edge nodes if they are not a primary designer of the silicon that is fabbed.
China at 14.4% has a mere rounding error of "leading edge" capacity at an inefficient version of 7nm, and is blocked by the U.S. and its allies from obtaining the equipment and building the supply chain necessary to compete.
It anything, Apple has ridden the wave of TSMC success, while providing the bulk of its revenues to continue that.
Context?
How much of the world's wafer output corresponds to cutting edge nodes?
Less than 2%? And falling?
By your argument, sanctions on sales of advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology to China are of little concern...and yet, that is a real and significant imposition on China's growth, isn't it.
Fun facts;
California is set to surpass Germany as the world's fourth largest economy;
The concern is related to the damage the US is doing to its own industry. That is self harm.
US semi-conductor interests have taken a huge hit due to these unilateral extra-territorial sanctions.
In market value loss, the damage has been huge. In a more direct context the damage has also been huge. Lost revenues.
How is the industry supposed to move forward if it can't sell into its largest market? How is it supposed to generate funding for R&D?
Applied Research and NVIDIA will each take a $400mn hit in just one quarter.
And to make matters worse, the whole policy only serves to accelerate the inevitable. Chinese technological progress. Remember. No policymaker has ever mentioned 'stopping' China's progress. Simply slowing it down. Well, there is a short term and long term reading of that but the consensus is clear. China will get there.
Worse still, non-US interests have also been impacted because the rugs have been pulled out from under their feet. As a result, US technology is toxic to them and they are working to get it out of their products.
With the latest 'sanctions' it is actually worse because employees with US citizenship are probably going to lose their jobs at Chinese companies.
An executive at a Chinese semi-conductor company:
“Now we are not just trying to build up ‘US-free’ manufacturing lines but also de-Americanise the teams,” said the executive.
That's from a paywalled FT article.
Let's be clear, absolutely ALL semi-conductor companies want to do business with Chinese companies. Bar none.
Having to halt sales simply because their products contain a tiny amount of US technology has opened their eyes to extra-territorial interference. The same applies to government.
Everyone is reducing their dependence on US technology.
How does that look for US interests? Bread for today but hunger for tomorrow?
Then we have to deal with the completely crackpot ideas of some prominent US representatives. What you are about to read must have come from people who are literally detached from the real world.
They want Biden to interfere in Chinese sovereign activities on Chinese soil.
Read to believe! (and they are citing Bloomberg - yikes!)
"Dear President Biden,
We call on the administration to take immediate action to halt Huawei’s attempt to build the Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Company (PXW) semiconductor foundry. This Huawei-aligned foundry is designed to fatally undermine the U.S. strategy to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) bid to dominate global 5G markets and strengthen its intelligence and repression apparatus.
Bloomberg recently published evidence that Huawei began construction over seven months ago on a factory where PXW is expected to eventually mass produce chips as advanced as 14 nanometers and 7 nanometers. Almost all of these chips are expected to be sold to Huawei, and PXW reportedly has already ordered the advanced equipment necessary to build these chips. This would represent a dangerous leap in Chinese semiconductor manufacturing, as Chinese chipmakers have thus far only been able to produce 7-nanometer chips in limited quantities. With these new chips for its base stations, Huawei could resume its march towards 5G market dominance, and the CCP will advance its plan to control global telecommunications and extend its economic espionage and repression."
Not a word about 'national security' there. Just 5G dominance (commercial and technological interests). The espionage line is just more craziness.
LOL!
Uhm, "economic espionage and repression" are in fact valid National Security issues.
You are free to believe what you want, and for fuck sake, why would anyone want Huawei to "resume its march towards 5G market dominance".
Blackburn wants President Biden to step in and block delivery of any advanced equipment that has been ordered from the West for PXW. More to the point, why is anyone allowing advanced equipment sales to China at this point in time. I agree with that action. China is a threat to Taiwan.
According to Bloomberg sources, the Chinese tech conglomerate is now supporting a small startup ordering equipment for a semiconductor manufacturing plant. Purportedly, the new semiconductor plant, called Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Co. (known as PXW) and run by a former Huawei executive, will be built close to the Huawei headquarters as it is expected to be the plant’s biggest customer, buying “most, if not all, of its output.”
If successful, this would allow Huawei to regain its footing and begin producing devices in earnest again. However, it remains to be seen if PXW will violate U.S. trade sanctions in supplying Huawei, as that would limit what equipment can be purchased by the company. Moreover, it is reported that the company’s first products, expected in 2025, will be on 28-nanometer technology leaving the plant six or more generations behind.
Given the accusations and evidence against Huawei, it will be difficult for any company to affiliate with the denylisted organization. Some of the U.S. restrictions may extend to this new company and prevent PXW from getting off the ground. However, if not, it still sounds like Huawei will be comparatively stuck in the stone age of semiconductors for a little while.
China continues to be a threat to the West and the existing rules of order. That's on Xi and his play for absolute power in China.
Fucking Europeans. Schotz will probably allow China's COSCO to own a portion of port facilities, even though his ministers are telling him no. When will they learn...
Huawei already has 5G dominance. Where have you been? Even now, it leads the market and has already 'de-Americanised' its ICT 5G product stack. It is now simply building out capacity.
China has no recent history of direct meddling in sovereign states through military action. It considers Taiwan part of China but apart from that there is no outward threat that has been singled out to the rest of the world.
'Repression' has nothing to do with US national security.
Apart from US 'sanctions' the rest of the world is eager to sell its technology to China. Yes, ASML and all the US tech industry included. Let that sink in.
You say you don't know why anyone would want to sell advanced tech to China. You are in a very small minority. The CEO of ASML has said more than once that the US approach will not work. Weaponising technology, forcing breakage of international supply lines and forcing sovereign nations to follow US orders or else has been a wake up call to the tech world.
There is nothing anyone is doing with the foundry equipment at that new site that contravenes US sanctions. Do you think ASML et al would risk that?
However, that said, US EDA software makers have said that they would rather Chinese companies 'cracked' their software than see a Chinese rival emerge from the sanctions. Too late for that I'm afraid as that ball is already rolling too.
The request to Biden just goes to show how out of touch with reality those folks are. Try to imagine things the other way around?
It is crazy.
Huawei alone has invested in over 40 semiconductor companies with the aim of rejigging its supply lines (all of them in detriment to US semiconductor industries).
China’s ‘secret police stations’ in UK must be investigated, say MPs
London and Glasgow claimed to be among list of operations to target critics and dissidents
China has been doing this around the world for quite some time. Have to make sure the diaspora don't forget who their bosses are. More than that, the influence operations that China conducts.
You might want to post about that, with your first hand knowledge and alll.
Absolutely nothing to do with technology and my knowledge of China is far less than that of the US and I'm definitely not involved with the Chinese Police. LOL.
Stay on topic!
I never stated that you were involved with the Chinese police, but you have an affection for Huawei, and a defense of China's authoritarianism that is exceptional for AI posters. It blinds you to all of the harm that China has done, and will do, to the world, which is why I am a proponent of constraining China.
As I noted, the Western world is no longer enamored with China, and is resisting China's authoritarian impulse to change the current rules of order that have been the basis for an effective global economy since the end of WWII.
Perhaps if Huawei wasn't so closely linked with the CPC, I might give you more leeway in your views. Alas, China is Huawei, and Huawei is China.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
I have never defended authoritarian governments.
I know a lot about Huawei.
That knowledge allows me point out inaccuracies in what many people spout off about the company. Most of which are about as far from the truth as they can get, and you yourself have been found wanting over and over again.
The western world was never enamored with China in the first place. The western world as you put it and China are basically trading and investment partners. If anything the opposite of what you claim is true as China is pushing development and trading links with Africa and Latin America. The US started an ill thought out trade war with China, in part, to force China to do even more business with it.
If we put the focus on Huawei and the rest of the world, it's the same story. Watch the Huawei Connect 2022 video from this very month in Paris with members of all the big companies and EU parliament members in attendance to see what's happening here.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
That statement is factually incorrect, if not an outright lie on your part, and you know it's a lie, because you live in the West, where we have a nominal free press. That free press does not exist in China, so how would you verify anything that Huawei states? You can't
China has often been criticized for a lack of transparency, especially with regard to its economic and trade policies. While in many cases these criticisms are valid, it belies the fact that in other instances, China is remarkably open and transparent about its intentions and ambitions.
Such is the case with China’s “Opinion on Strengthening the United Front Work of the Private Economy in the New Era,” recently released by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (and further elaborated on by President Xi Jinping himself). This document tells us in no uncertain terms that Chinese private companies will be increasingly called upon to conduct their operations in tight coordination with governmental policy objectives and ideologies. The rest of the world should take note.
A Different Vision of “Private” Business
The 5,000 word “opinion” aims to ratchet-up the role and influence of the CCP within the private sector in order “to better focus the wisdom and strength of the private businesspeople on the goal and mission to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The objective is to establish a “united front” between business and government and facilitate the “enhancement of the party’s leadership over the private economy.” According to the plan, “private economic figures are to be more closely united around the party,” thereby achieving “a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee on political stand, political direction, political principles, and political roads.”
Contrast that with the free market;
All of this stands in stark contrast to long-accepted concepts of how private companies function in a free market. The overriding purpose of business, according to these traditional precepts, is to earn profits through the provision of value-added products and services, in response to marketplace signals and under the constraint of basic economic realities. Government ideology plays no role in that equation.
For the most part, Western governments only regulate private business, for a variety of reasons including National Security, but they are almost never directly involved in the operation of those businesses, and certainly not anything like the CPC is involved in businesses such as Huawei, which are part and parcel of their state security apparatus.
Ultimately, the current marketplace between the West and China has become distorted, and this coincides with Xi era of China rolling back freedoms enjoyed by the Chinese people. You seem to place the blame squarely on the West, when in fact, Xi's complete control of the Chinese government is an obvious issue in the West, as noted by the PEW poll that I posted earlier.
As for your statement that you do not defend authoritarian governments, I have seen a number of your previous statements in denial of China's human rights violations, posted here on Ai, even against overwhelming information that it is occurring, and documented by the same EU that you so strongly support otherwise.
More nonsense and not even on topic!
AT&T. Private company. 2017. Pressured out of a deal with Huawei.
No evidence ever presented. Should we be surprised?
And just to drive the message home to you:
"He recalled that GCHQ was rather unimpressed. The encounter revealed that the US case was primarily political rather than technical. So GCHQ stuck to their guns, as did the prime minister at first, Darroch explained."
What is left out, making this graph grossly misleading, is the context of the value of the wafers at the leading edge. This is where TSMC, followed by Samsung, and less so, Intel reside. It should also be noted that most of the design for these nodes occurs in the U.S.
The EU will have difficulty introducing leading edge nodes if they are not a primary designer of the silicon that is fabbed.
China at 14.4% has a mere rounding error of "leading edge" capacity at an inefficient version of 7nm, and is blocked by the U.S. and its allies from obtaining the equipment and building the supply chain necessary to compete.
It anything, Apple has ridden the wave of TSMC success, while providing the bulk of its revenues to continue that.
Context?
How much of the world's wafer output corresponds to cutting edge nodes?
Less than 2%? And falling?
By your argument, sanctions on sales of advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology to China are of little concern...and yet, that is a real and significant imposition on China's growth, isn't it.
Fun facts;
California is set to surpass Germany as the world's fourth largest economy;
The concern is related to the damage the US is doing to its own industry. That is self harm.
US semi-conductor interests have taken a huge hit due to these unilateral extra-territorial sanctions.
In market value loss, the damage has been huge. In a more direct context the damage has also been huge. Lost revenues.
How is the industry supposed to move forward if it can't sell into its largest market? How is it supposed to generate funding for R&D?
Applied Research and NVIDIA will each take a $400mn hit in just one quarter.
And to make matters worse, the whole policy only serves to accelerate the inevitable. Chinese technological progress. Remember. No policymaker has ever mentioned 'stopping' China's progress. Simply slowing it down. Well, there is a short term and long term reading of that but the consensus is clear. China will get there.
Worse still, non-US interests have also been impacted because the rugs have been pulled out from under their feet. As a result, US technology is toxic to them and they are working to get it out of their products.
With the latest 'sanctions' it is actually worse because employees with US citizenship are probably going to lose their jobs at Chinese companies.
An executive at a Chinese semi-conductor company:
“Now we are not just trying to build up ‘US-free’ manufacturing lines but also de-Americanise the teams,” said the executive.
That's from a paywalled FT article.
Let's be clear, absolutely ALL semi-conductor companies want to do business with Chinese companies. Bar none.
Having to halt sales simply because their products contain a tiny amount of US technology has opened their eyes to extra-territorial interference. The same applies to government.
Everyone is reducing their dependence on US technology.
How does that look for US interests? Bread for today but hunger for tomorrow?
Then we have to deal with the completely crackpot ideas of some prominent US representatives. What you are about to read must have come from people who are literally detached from the real world.
They want Biden to interfere in Chinese sovereign activities on Chinese soil.
Read to believe! (and they are citing Bloomberg - yikes!)
"Dear President Biden,
We call on the administration to take immediate action to halt Huawei’s attempt to build the Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Company (PXW) semiconductor foundry. This Huawei-aligned foundry is designed to fatally undermine the U.S. strategy to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) bid to dominate global 5G markets and strengthen its intelligence and repression apparatus.
Bloomberg recently published evidence that Huawei began construction over seven months ago on a factory where PXW is expected to eventually mass produce chips as advanced as 14 nanometers and 7 nanometers. Almost all of these chips are expected to be sold to Huawei, and PXW reportedly has already ordered the advanced equipment necessary to build these chips. This would represent a dangerous leap in Chinese semiconductor manufacturing, as Chinese chipmakers have thus far only been able to produce 7-nanometer chips in limited quantities. With these new chips for its base stations, Huawei could resume its march towards 5G market dominance, and the CCP will advance its plan to control global telecommunications and extend its economic espionage and repression."
Not a word about 'national security' there. Just 5G dominance (commercial and technological interests). The espionage line is just more craziness.
LOL!
Uhm, "economic espionage and repression" are in fact valid National Security issues.
You are free to believe what you want, and for fuck sake, why would anyone want Huawei to "resume its march towards 5G market dominance".
Blackburn wants President Biden to step in and block delivery of any advanced equipment that has been ordered from the West for PXW. More to the point, why is anyone allowing advanced equipment sales to China at this point in time. I agree with that action. China is a threat to Taiwan.
According to Bloomberg sources, the Chinese tech conglomerate is now supporting a small startup ordering equipment for a semiconductor manufacturing plant. Purportedly, the new semiconductor plant, called Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Co. (known as PXW) and run by a former Huawei executive, will be built close to the Huawei headquarters as it is expected to be the plant’s biggest customer, buying “most, if not all, of its output.”
If successful, this would allow Huawei to regain its footing and begin producing devices in earnest again. However, it remains to be seen if PXW will violate U.S. trade sanctions in supplying Huawei, as that would limit what equipment can be purchased by the company. Moreover, it is reported that the company’s first products, expected in 2025, will be on 28-nanometer technology leaving the plant six or more generations behind.
Given the accusations and evidence against Huawei, it will be difficult for any company to affiliate with the denylisted organization. Some of the U.S. restrictions may extend to this new company and prevent PXW from getting off the ground. However, if not, it still sounds like Huawei will be comparatively stuck in the stone age of semiconductors for a little while.
China continues to be a threat to the West and the existing rules of order. That's on Xi and his play for absolute power in China.
Fucking Europeans. Schotz will probably allow China's COSCO to own a portion of port facilities, even though his ministers are telling him no. When will they learn...
Huawei already has 5G dominance. Where have you been? Even now, it leads the market and has already 'de-Americanised' its ICT 5G product stack. It is now simply building out capacity.
China has no recent history of direct meddling in sovereign states through military action. It considers Taiwan part of China but apart from that there is no outward threat that has been singled out to the rest of the world.
'Repression' has nothing to do with US national security.
Apart from US 'sanctions' the rest of the world is eager to sell its technology to China. Yes, ASML and all the US tech industry included. Let that sink in.
You say you don't know why anyone would want to sell advanced tech to China. You are in a very small minority. The CEO of ASML has said more than once that the US approach will not work. Weaponising technology, forcing breakage of international supply lines and forcing sovereign nations to follow US orders or else has been a wake up call to the tech world.
There is nothing anyone is doing with the foundry equipment at that new site that contravenes US sanctions. Do you think ASML et al would risk that?
However, that said, US EDA software makers have said that they would rather Chinese companies 'cracked' their software than see a Chinese rival emerge from the sanctions. Too late for that I'm afraid as that ball is already rolling too.
The request to Biden just goes to show how out of touch with reality those folks are. Try to imagine things the other way around?
It is crazy.
Huawei alone has invested in over 40 semiconductor companies with the aim of rejigging its supply lines (all of them in detriment to US semiconductor industries).
China’s ‘secret police stations’ in UK must be investigated, say MPs
London and Glasgow claimed to be among list of operations to target critics and dissidents
China has been doing this around the world for quite some time. Have to make sure the diaspora don't forget who their bosses are. More than that, the influence operations that China conducts.
You might want to post about that, with your first hand knowledge and alll.
Absolutely nothing to do with technology and my knowledge of China is far less than that of the US and I'm definitely not involved with the Chinese Police. LOL.
Stay on topic!
I never stated that you were involved with the Chinese police, but you have an affection for Huawei, and a defense of China's authoritarianism that is exceptional for AI posters. It blinds you to all of the harm that China has done, and will do, to the world, which is why I am a proponent of constraining China.
As I noted, the Western world is no longer enamored with China, and is resisting China's authoritarian impulse to change the current rules of order that have been the basis for an effective global economy since the end of WWII.
Perhaps if Huawei wasn't so closely linked with the CPC, I might give you more leeway in your views. Alas, China is Huawei, and Huawei is China.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
I have never defended authoritarian governments.
I know a lot about Huawei.
That knowledge allows me point out inaccuracies in what many people spout off about the company. Most of which are about as far from the truth as they can get, and you yourself have been found wanting over and over again.
The western world was never enamored with China in the first place. The western world as you put it and China are basically trading and investment partners. If anything the opposite of what you claim is true as China is pushing development and trading links with Africa and Latin America. The US started an ill thought out trade war with China, in part, to force China to do even more business with it.
If we put the focus on Huawei and the rest of the world, it's the same story. Watch the Huawei Connect 2022 video from this very month in Paris with members of all the big companies and EU parliament members in attendance to see what's happening here.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
That statement is factually incorrect, if not an outright lie on your part, and you know it's a lie, because you live in the West, where we have a nominal free press. That free press does not exist in China, so how would you verify anything that Huawei states? You can't
China has often been criticized for a lack of transparency, especially with regard to its economic and trade policies. While in many cases these criticisms are valid, it belies the fact that in other instances, China is remarkably open and transparent about its intentions and ambitions.
Such is the case with China’s “Opinion on Strengthening the United Front Work of the Private Economy in the New Era,” recently released by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (and further elaborated on by President Xi Jinping himself). This document tells us in no uncertain terms that Chinese private companies will be increasingly called upon to conduct their operations in tight coordination with governmental policy objectives and ideologies. The rest of the world should take note.
A Different Vision of “Private” Business
The 5,000 word “opinion” aims to ratchet-up the role and influence of the CCP within the private sector in order “to better focus the wisdom and strength of the private businesspeople on the goal and mission to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The objective is to establish a “united front” between business and government and facilitate the “enhancement of the party’s leadership over the private economy.” According to the plan, “private economic figures are to be more closely united around the party,” thereby achieving “a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee on political stand, political direction, political principles, and political roads.”
Contrast that with the free market;
All of this stands in stark contrast to long-accepted concepts of how private companies function in a free market. The overriding purpose of business, according to these traditional precepts, is to earn profits through the provision of value-added products and services, in response to marketplace signals and under the constraint of basic economic realities. Government ideology plays no role in that equation.
For the most part, Western governments only regulate private business, for a variety of reasons including National Security, but they are almost never directly involved in the operation of those businesses, and certainly not anything like the CPC is involved in businesses such as Huawei, which are part and parcel of their state security apparatus.
Ultimately, the current marketplace between the West and China has become distorted, and this coincides with Xi era of China rolling back freedoms enjoyed by the Chinese people. You seem to place the blame squarely on the West, when in fact, Xi's complete control of the Chinese government is an obvious issue in the West, as noted by the PEW poll that I posted earlier.
As for your statement that you do not defend authoritarian governments, I have seen a number of your previous statements in denial of China's human rights violations, posted here on Ai, even against overwhelming information that it is occurring, and documented by the same EU that you so strongly support otherwise.
More nonsense and not even on topic!
AT&T. Private company. 2017. Pressured out of a deal with Huawei.
No evidence ever presented. Should we be surprised?
And just to drive the message home to you:
"He recalled that GCHQ was rather unimpressed. The encounter revealed that the US case was primarily political rather than technical. So GCHQ stuck to their guns, as did the prime minister at first, Darroch explained."
Can I now say that AT&T and the UK government are now part of the US government because they changed their reasoned decisions?
The US fears that China will overtake it in the technology realm. That's it.
LOL.
You still are unable to understand the difference between companies in China and companies in the West; it's almost like you are in denial...
Sure, Western Governments shape policy, but they aren't involved in the day to day operation of businesses, nor are these businesses staffed with party members, and operated by party controlled union groups, as they are in China.
Presumably, you have worked in the West before, so you should be able to figure that out.
What is it with you and Huawei anyway? It seems an, unhealthy, attachment.
What is left out, making this graph grossly misleading, is the context of the value of the wafers at the leading edge. This is where TSMC, followed by Samsung, and less so, Intel reside. It should also be noted that most of the design for these nodes occurs in the U.S.
The EU will have difficulty introducing leading edge nodes if they are not a primary designer of the silicon that is fabbed.
China at 14.4% has a mere rounding error of "leading edge" capacity at an inefficient version of 7nm, and is blocked by the U.S. and its allies from obtaining the equipment and building the supply chain necessary to compete.
It anything, Apple has ridden the wave of TSMC success, while providing the bulk of its revenues to continue that.
Context?
How much of the world's wafer output corresponds to cutting edge nodes?
Less than 2%? And falling?
By your argument, sanctions on sales of advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology to China are of little concern...and yet, that is a real and significant imposition on China's growth, isn't it.
Fun facts;
California is set to surpass Germany as the world's fourth largest economy;
The concern is related to the damage the US is doing to its own industry. That is self harm.
US semi-conductor interests have taken a huge hit due to these unilateral extra-territorial sanctions.
In market value loss, the damage has been huge. In a more direct context the damage has also been huge. Lost revenues.
How is the industry supposed to move forward if it can't sell into its largest market? How is it supposed to generate funding for R&D?
Applied Research and NVIDIA will each take a $400mn hit in just one quarter.
And to make matters worse, the whole policy only serves to accelerate the inevitable. Chinese technological progress. Remember. No policymaker has ever mentioned 'stopping' China's progress. Simply slowing it down. Well, there is a short term and long term reading of that but the consensus is clear. China will get there.
Worse still, non-US interests have also been impacted because the rugs have been pulled out from under their feet. As a result, US technology is toxic to them and they are working to get it out of their products.
With the latest 'sanctions' it is actually worse because employees with US citizenship are probably going to lose their jobs at Chinese companies.
An executive at a Chinese semi-conductor company:
“Now we are not just trying to build up ‘US-free’ manufacturing lines but also de-Americanise the teams,” said the executive.
That's from a paywalled FT article.
Let's be clear, absolutely ALL semi-conductor companies want to do business with Chinese companies. Bar none.
Having to halt sales simply because their products contain a tiny amount of US technology has opened their eyes to extra-territorial interference. The same applies to government.
Everyone is reducing their dependence on US technology.
How does that look for US interests? Bread for today but hunger for tomorrow?
Then we have to deal with the completely crackpot ideas of some prominent US representatives. What you are about to read must have come from people who are literally detached from the real world.
They want Biden to interfere in Chinese sovereign activities on Chinese soil.
Read to believe! (and they are citing Bloomberg - yikes!)
"Dear President Biden,
We call on the administration to take immediate action to halt Huawei’s attempt to build the Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Company (PXW) semiconductor foundry. This Huawei-aligned foundry is designed to fatally undermine the U.S. strategy to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) bid to dominate global 5G markets and strengthen its intelligence and repression apparatus.
Bloomberg recently published evidence that Huawei began construction over seven months ago on a factory where PXW is expected to eventually mass produce chips as advanced as 14 nanometers and 7 nanometers. Almost all of these chips are expected to be sold to Huawei, and PXW reportedly has already ordered the advanced equipment necessary to build these chips. This would represent a dangerous leap in Chinese semiconductor manufacturing, as Chinese chipmakers have thus far only been able to produce 7-nanometer chips in limited quantities. With these new chips for its base stations, Huawei could resume its march towards 5G market dominance, and the CCP will advance its plan to control global telecommunications and extend its economic espionage and repression."
Not a word about 'national security' there. Just 5G dominance (commercial and technological interests). The espionage line is just more craziness.
LOL!
Uhm, "economic espionage and repression" are in fact valid National Security issues.
You are free to believe what you want, and for fuck sake, why would anyone want Huawei to "resume its march towards 5G market dominance".
Blackburn wants President Biden to step in and block delivery of any advanced equipment that has been ordered from the West for PXW. More to the point, why is anyone allowing advanced equipment sales to China at this point in time. I agree with that action. China is a threat to Taiwan.
According to Bloomberg sources, the Chinese tech conglomerate is now supporting a small startup ordering equipment for a semiconductor manufacturing plant. Purportedly, the new semiconductor plant, called Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Co. (known as PXW) and run by a former Huawei executive, will be built close to the Huawei headquarters as it is expected to be the plant’s biggest customer, buying “most, if not all, of its output.”
If successful, this would allow Huawei to regain its footing and begin producing devices in earnest again. However, it remains to be seen if PXW will violate U.S. trade sanctions in supplying Huawei, as that would limit what equipment can be purchased by the company. Moreover, it is reported that the company’s first products, expected in 2025, will be on 28-nanometer technology leaving the plant six or more generations behind.
Given the accusations and evidence against Huawei, it will be difficult for any company to affiliate with the denylisted organization. Some of the U.S. restrictions may extend to this new company and prevent PXW from getting off the ground. However, if not, it still sounds like Huawei will be comparatively stuck in the stone age of semiconductors for a little while.
China continues to be a threat to the West and the existing rules of order. That's on Xi and his play for absolute power in China.
Fucking Europeans. Schotz will probably allow China's COSCO to own a portion of port facilities, even though his ministers are telling him no. When will they learn...
Huawei already has 5G dominance. Where have you been? Even now, it leads the market and has already 'de-Americanised' its ICT 5G product stack. It is now simply building out capacity.
China has no recent history of direct meddling in sovereign states through military action. It considers Taiwan part of China but apart from that there is no outward threat that has been singled out to the rest of the world.
'Repression' has nothing to do with US national security.
Apart from US 'sanctions' the rest of the world is eager to sell its technology to China. Yes, ASML and all the US tech industry included. Let that sink in.
You say you don't know why anyone would want to sell advanced tech to China. You are in a very small minority. The CEO of ASML has said more than once that the US approach will not work. Weaponising technology, forcing breakage of international supply lines and forcing sovereign nations to follow US orders or else has been a wake up call to the tech world.
There is nothing anyone is doing with the foundry equipment at that new site that contravenes US sanctions. Do you think ASML et al would risk that?
However, that said, US EDA software makers have said that they would rather Chinese companies 'cracked' their software than see a Chinese rival emerge from the sanctions. Too late for that I'm afraid as that ball is already rolling too.
The request to Biden just goes to show how out of touch with reality those folks are. Try to imagine things the other way around?
It is crazy.
Huawei alone has invested in over 40 semiconductor companies with the aim of rejigging its supply lines (all of them in detriment to US semiconductor industries).
China’s ‘secret police stations’ in UK must be investigated, say MPs
London and Glasgow claimed to be among list of operations to target critics and dissidents
China has been doing this around the world for quite some time. Have to make sure the diaspora don't forget who their bosses are. More than that, the influence operations that China conducts.
You might want to post about that, with your first hand knowledge and alll.
Absolutely nothing to do with technology and my knowledge of China is far less than that of the US and I'm definitely not involved with the Chinese Police. LOL.
Stay on topic!
I never stated that you were involved with the Chinese police, but you have an affection for Huawei, and a defense of China's authoritarianism that is exceptional for AI posters. It blinds you to all of the harm that China has done, and will do, to the world, which is why I am a proponent of constraining China.
As I noted, the Western world is no longer enamored with China, and is resisting China's authoritarian impulse to change the current rules of order that have been the basis for an effective global economy since the end of WWII.
Perhaps if Huawei wasn't so closely linked with the CPC, I might give you more leeway in your views. Alas, China is Huawei, and Huawei is China.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
I have never defended authoritarian governments.
I know a lot about Huawei.
That knowledge allows me point out inaccuracies in what many people spout off about the company. Most of which are about as far from the truth as they can get, and you yourself have been found wanting over and over again.
The western world was never enamored with China in the first place. The western world as you put it and China are basically trading and investment partners. If anything the opposite of what you claim is true as China is pushing development and trading links with Africa and Latin America. The US started an ill thought out trade war with China, in part, to force China to do even more business with it.
If we put the focus on Huawei and the rest of the world, it's the same story. Watch the Huawei Connect 2022 video from this very month in Paris with members of all the big companies and EU parliament members in attendance to see what's happening here.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
That statement is factually incorrect, if not an outright lie on your part, and you know it's a lie, because you live in the West, where we have a nominal free press. That free press does not exist in China, so how would you verify anything that Huawei states? You can't
China has often been criticized for a lack of transparency, especially with regard to its economic and trade policies. While in many cases these criticisms are valid, it belies the fact that in other instances, China is remarkably open and transparent about its intentions and ambitions.
Such is the case with China’s “Opinion on Strengthening the United Front Work of the Private Economy in the New Era,” recently released by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (and further elaborated on by President Xi Jinping himself). This document tells us in no uncertain terms that Chinese private companies will be increasingly called upon to conduct their operations in tight coordination with governmental policy objectives and ideologies. The rest of the world should take note.
A Different Vision of “Private” Business
The 5,000 word “opinion” aims to ratchet-up the role and influence of the CCP within the private sector in order “to better focus the wisdom and strength of the private businesspeople on the goal and mission to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The objective is to establish a “united front” between business and government and facilitate the “enhancement of the party’s leadership over the private economy.” According to the plan, “private economic figures are to be more closely united around the party,” thereby achieving “a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee on political stand, political direction, political principles, and political roads.”
Contrast that with the free market;
All of this stands in stark contrast to long-accepted concepts of how private companies function in a free market. The overriding purpose of business, according to these traditional precepts, is to earn profits through the provision of value-added products and services, in response to marketplace signals and under the constraint of basic economic realities. Government ideology plays no role in that equation.
For the most part, Western governments only regulate private business, for a variety of reasons including National Security, but they are almost never directly involved in the operation of those businesses, and certainly not anything like the CPC is involved in businesses such as Huawei, which are part and parcel of their state security apparatus.
Ultimately, the current marketplace between the West and China has become distorted, and this coincides with Xi era of China rolling back freedoms enjoyed by the Chinese people. You seem to place the blame squarely on the West, when in fact, Xi's complete control of the Chinese government is an obvious issue in the West, as noted by the PEW poll that I posted earlier.
As for your statement that you do not defend authoritarian governments, I have seen a number of your previous statements in denial of China's human rights violations, posted here on Ai, even against overwhelming information that it is occurring, and documented by the same EU that you so strongly support otherwise.
More nonsense and not even on topic!
AT&T. Private company. 2017. Pressured out of a deal with Huawei.
No evidence ever presented. Should we be surprised?
And just to drive the message home to you:
"He recalled that GCHQ was rather unimpressed. The encounter revealed that the US case was primarily political rather than technical. So GCHQ stuck to their guns, as did the prime minister at first, Darroch explained."
Can I now say that AT&T and the UK government are now part of the US government because they changed their reasoned decisions?
The US fears that China will overtake it in the technology realm. That's it.
LOL.
You still are unable to understand the difference between companies in China and companies in the West; it's almost like you are in denial...
Sure, Western Governments shape policy, but they aren't involved in the day to day operation of businesses, nor are these businesses staffed with party members, and operated by party controlled union groups, as they are in China.
Presumably, you have worked in the West before, so you should be able to figure that out.
What is it with you and Huawei anyway? It seems an, unhealthy, attachment.
I'm in denial?
That's rich!
Look. You just veer off topic with the same anti China line over and over again. And now you imply I have some kind of issue? LOL.
There is nothing with 'me and Huawei'.
I just know a lot about the company (and Apple!) and its products. I try to comment on things I know about and stay away from stuff I'm not so knowledgeable of. Samsung could pop up somewhere here and you'll see nary a peep from me because I just don't know Samsung all that well.
As for 'shaping policy' , you seem to have brushed over my subtle point that it is the US that has been trying to shape the policy of sovereign nations for literally decades now and yes, via methods most foul too, but that has little to do with technology does it?
When it comes to the issue under discussion in this thread you literally have nothing to counter what I've pointed out because, by and large, what I have stated is fact, and largely supported by comments from the US administration itself. Especially when Trump was free to tweet his thoughts on an hourly basis.
You're gonna have to accept that.
The US is hellbent on slowing China down because future economic growth is going to be very technology related. Far more than it is now and the US is not well placed to keep pace with China. All its moves have been late and very poorly planned. Starting with 5G. It completely missed the boat.
What is left out, making this graph grossly misleading, is the context of the value of the wafers at the leading edge. This is where TSMC, followed by Samsung, and less so, Intel reside. It should also be noted that most of the design for these nodes occurs in the U.S.
The EU will have difficulty introducing leading edge nodes if they are not a primary designer of the silicon that is fabbed.
China at 14.4% has a mere rounding error of "leading edge" capacity at an inefficient version of 7nm, and is blocked by the U.S. and its allies from obtaining the equipment and building the supply chain necessary to compete.
It anything, Apple has ridden the wave of TSMC success, while providing the bulk of its revenues to continue that.
Context?
How much of the world's wafer output corresponds to cutting edge nodes?
Less than 2%? And falling?
By your argument, sanctions on sales of advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology to China are of little concern...and yet, that is a real and significant imposition on China's growth, isn't it.
Fun facts;
California is set to surpass Germany as the world's fourth largest economy;
The concern is related to the damage the US is doing to its own industry. That is self harm.
US semi-conductor interests have taken a huge hit due to these unilateral extra-territorial sanctions.
In market value loss, the damage has been huge. In a more direct context the damage has also been huge. Lost revenues.
How is the industry supposed to move forward if it can't sell into its largest market? How is it supposed to generate funding for R&D?
Applied Research and NVIDIA will each take a $400mn hit in just one quarter.
And to make matters worse, the whole policy only serves to accelerate the inevitable. Chinese technological progress. Remember. No policymaker has ever mentioned 'stopping' China's progress. Simply slowing it down. Well, there is a short term and long term reading of that but the consensus is clear. China will get there.
Worse still, non-US interests have also been impacted because the rugs have been pulled out from under their feet. As a result, US technology is toxic to them and they are working to get it out of their products.
With the latest 'sanctions' it is actually worse because employees with US citizenship are probably going to lose their jobs at Chinese companies.
An executive at a Chinese semi-conductor company:
“Now we are not just trying to build up ‘US-free’ manufacturing lines but also de-Americanise the teams,” said the executive.
That's from a paywalled FT article.
Let's be clear, absolutely ALL semi-conductor companies want to do business with Chinese companies. Bar none.
Having to halt sales simply because their products contain a tiny amount of US technology has opened their eyes to extra-territorial interference. The same applies to government.
Everyone is reducing their dependence on US technology.
How does that look for US interests? Bread for today but hunger for tomorrow?
Then we have to deal with the completely crackpot ideas of some prominent US representatives. What you are about to read must have come from people who are literally detached from the real world.
They want Biden to interfere in Chinese sovereign activities on Chinese soil.
Read to believe! (and they are citing Bloomberg - yikes!)
"Dear President Biden,
We call on the administration to take immediate action to halt Huawei’s attempt to build the Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Company (PXW) semiconductor foundry. This Huawei-aligned foundry is designed to fatally undermine the U.S. strategy to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) bid to dominate global 5G markets and strengthen its intelligence and repression apparatus.
Bloomberg recently published evidence that Huawei began construction over seven months ago on a factory where PXW is expected to eventually mass produce chips as advanced as 14 nanometers and 7 nanometers. Almost all of these chips are expected to be sold to Huawei, and PXW reportedly has already ordered the advanced equipment necessary to build these chips. This would represent a dangerous leap in Chinese semiconductor manufacturing, as Chinese chipmakers have thus far only been able to produce 7-nanometer chips in limited quantities. With these new chips for its base stations, Huawei could resume its march towards 5G market dominance, and the CCP will advance its plan to control global telecommunications and extend its economic espionage and repression."
Not a word about 'national security' there. Just 5G dominance (commercial and technological interests). The espionage line is just more craziness.
LOL!
Uhm, "economic espionage and repression" are in fact valid National Security issues.
You are free to believe what you want, and for fuck sake, why would anyone want Huawei to "resume its march towards 5G market dominance".
Blackburn wants President Biden to step in and block delivery of any advanced equipment that has been ordered from the West for PXW. More to the point, why is anyone allowing advanced equipment sales to China at this point in time. I agree with that action. China is a threat to Taiwan.
According to Bloomberg sources, the Chinese tech conglomerate is now supporting a small startup ordering equipment for a semiconductor manufacturing plant. Purportedly, the new semiconductor plant, called Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Co. (known as PXW) and run by a former Huawei executive, will be built close to the Huawei headquarters as it is expected to be the plant’s biggest customer, buying “most, if not all, of its output.”
If successful, this would allow Huawei to regain its footing and begin producing devices in earnest again. However, it remains to be seen if PXW will violate U.S. trade sanctions in supplying Huawei, as that would limit what equipment can be purchased by the company. Moreover, it is reported that the company’s first products, expected in 2025, will be on 28-nanometer technology leaving the plant six or more generations behind.
Given the accusations and evidence against Huawei, it will be difficult for any company to affiliate with the denylisted organization. Some of the U.S. restrictions may extend to this new company and prevent PXW from getting off the ground. However, if not, it still sounds like Huawei will be comparatively stuck in the stone age of semiconductors for a little while.
China continues to be a threat to the West and the existing rules of order. That's on Xi and his play for absolute power in China.
Fucking Europeans. Schotz will probably allow China's COSCO to own a portion of port facilities, even though his ministers are telling him no. When will they learn...
Huawei already has 5G dominance. Where have you been? Even now, it leads the market and has already 'de-Americanised' its ICT 5G product stack. It is now simply building out capacity.
China has no recent history of direct meddling in sovereign states through military action. It considers Taiwan part of China but apart from that there is no outward threat that has been singled out to the rest of the world.
'Repression' has nothing to do with US national security.
Apart from US 'sanctions' the rest of the world is eager to sell its technology to China. Yes, ASML and all the US tech industry included. Let that sink in.
You say you don't know why anyone would want to sell advanced tech to China. You are in a very small minority. The CEO of ASML has said more than once that the US approach will not work. Weaponising technology, forcing breakage of international supply lines and forcing sovereign nations to follow US orders or else has been a wake up call to the tech world.
There is nothing anyone is doing with the foundry equipment at that new site that contravenes US sanctions. Do you think ASML et al would risk that?
However, that said, US EDA software makers have said that they would rather Chinese companies 'cracked' their software than see a Chinese rival emerge from the sanctions. Too late for that I'm afraid as that ball is already rolling too.
The request to Biden just goes to show how out of touch with reality those folks are. Try to imagine things the other way around?
It is crazy.
Huawei alone has invested in over 40 semiconductor companies with the aim of rejigging its supply lines (all of them in detriment to US semiconductor industries).
China’s ‘secret police stations’ in UK must be investigated, say MPs
London and Glasgow claimed to be among list of operations to target critics and dissidents
China has been doing this around the world for quite some time. Have to make sure the diaspora don't forget who their bosses are. More than that, the influence operations that China conducts.
You might want to post about that, with your first hand knowledge and alll.
Absolutely nothing to do with technology and my knowledge of China is far less than that of the US and I'm definitely not involved with the Chinese Police. LOL.
Stay on topic!
I never stated that you were involved with the Chinese police, but you have an affection for Huawei, and a defense of China's authoritarianism that is exceptional for AI posters. It blinds you to all of the harm that China has done, and will do, to the world, which is why I am a proponent of constraining China.
As I noted, the Western world is no longer enamored with China, and is resisting China's authoritarian impulse to change the current rules of order that have been the basis for an effective global economy since the end of WWII.
Perhaps if Huawei wasn't so closely linked with the CPC, I might give you more leeway in your views. Alas, China is Huawei, and Huawei is China.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
I have never defended authoritarian governments.
I know a lot about Huawei.
That knowledge allows me point out inaccuracies in what many people spout off about the company. Most of which are about as far from the truth as they can get, and you yourself have been found wanting over and over again.
The western world was never enamored with China in the first place. The western world as you put it and China are basically trading and investment partners. If anything the opposite of what you claim is true as China is pushing development and trading links with Africa and Latin America. The US started an ill thought out trade war with China, in part, to force China to do even more business with it.
If we put the focus on Huawei and the rest of the world, it's the same story. Watch the Huawei Connect 2022 video from this very month in Paris with members of all the big companies and EU parliament members in attendance to see what's happening here.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
That statement is factually incorrect, if not an outright lie on your part, and you know it's a lie, because you live in the West, where we have a nominal free press. That free press does not exist in China, so how would you verify anything that Huawei states? You can't
China has often been criticized for a lack of transparency, especially with regard to its economic and trade policies. While in many cases these criticisms are valid, it belies the fact that in other instances, China is remarkably open and transparent about its intentions and ambitions.
Such is the case with China’s “Opinion on Strengthening the United Front Work of the Private Economy in the New Era,” recently released by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (and further elaborated on by President Xi Jinping himself). This document tells us in no uncertain terms that Chinese private companies will be increasingly called upon to conduct their operations in tight coordination with governmental policy objectives and ideologies. The rest of the world should take note.
A Different Vision of “Private” Business
The 5,000 word “opinion” aims to ratchet-up the role and influence of the CCP within the private sector in order “to better focus the wisdom and strength of the private businesspeople on the goal and mission to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The objective is to establish a “united front” between business and government and facilitate the “enhancement of the party’s leadership over the private economy.” According to the plan, “private economic figures are to be more closely united around the party,” thereby achieving “a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee on political stand, political direction, political principles, and political roads.”
Contrast that with the free market;
All of this stands in stark contrast to long-accepted concepts of how private companies function in a free market. The overriding purpose of business, according to these traditional precepts, is to earn profits through the provision of value-added products and services, in response to marketplace signals and under the constraint of basic economic realities. Government ideology plays no role in that equation.
For the most part, Western governments only regulate private business, for a variety of reasons including National Security, but they are almost never directly involved in the operation of those businesses, and certainly not anything like the CPC is involved in businesses such as Huawei, which are part and parcel of their state security apparatus.
Ultimately, the current marketplace between the West and China has become distorted, and this coincides with Xi era of China rolling back freedoms enjoyed by the Chinese people. You seem to place the blame squarely on the West, when in fact, Xi's complete control of the Chinese government is an obvious issue in the West, as noted by the PEW poll that I posted earlier.
As for your statement that you do not defend authoritarian governments, I have seen a number of your previous statements in denial of China's human rights violations, posted here on Ai, even against overwhelming information that it is occurring, and documented by the same EU that you so strongly support otherwise.
More nonsense and not even on topic!
AT&T. Private company. 2017. Pressured out of a deal with Huawei.
No evidence ever presented. Should we be surprised?
And just to drive the message home to you:
"He recalled that GCHQ was rather unimpressed. The encounter revealed that the US case was primarily political rather than technical. So GCHQ stuck to their guns, as did the prime minister at first, Darroch explained."
Can I now say that AT&T and the UK government are now part of the US government because they changed their reasoned decisions?
The US fears that China will overtake it in the technology realm. That's it.
LOL.
You still are unable to understand the difference between companies in China and companies in the West; it's almost like you are in denial...
Sure, Western Governments shape policy, but they aren't involved in the day to day operation of businesses, nor are these businesses staffed with party members, and operated by party controlled union groups, as they are in China.
Presumably, you have worked in the West before, so you should be able to figure that out.
What is it with you and Huawei anyway? It seems an, unhealthy, attachment.
I'm in denial?
That's rich!
Look. You just veer off topic with the same anti China line over and over again. And now you imply I have some kind of issue? LOL.
There is nothing with 'me and Huawei'.
I just know a lot about the company (and Apple!) and its products. I try to comment on things I know about and stay away from stuff I'm not so knowledgeable of. Samsung could pop up somewhere here and you'll see nary a peep from me because I just don't know Samsung all that well.
As for 'shaping policy' , you seem to have brushed over my subtle point that it is the US that has been trying to shape the policy of sovereign nations for literally decades now and yes, via methods most foul too, but that has little to do with technology does it?
When it comes to the issue under discussion in this thread you literally have nothing to counter what I've pointed out because, by and large, what I have stated is fact, and largely supported by comments from the US administration itself. Especially when Trump was free to tweet his thoughts on an hourly basis.
You're gonna have to accept that.
The US is hellbent on slowing China down because future economic growth is going to be very technology related. Far more than it is now and the US is not well placed to keep pace with China. All its moves have been late and very poorly planned. Starting with 5G. It completely missed the boat.
Okay, keep going with that...
Don't let actual facts hit you in the backside...
Comparing china to THE global super power responsible likely for over half of the world's current population, due in part to the security of trade - allowing every nation to securely trade with each other. The result of which was the most peaceful period of the human race with more people lifted out of poverty than ever before. The sole power responsible for the information age.
Now come the chinese, a culture of which has never had a political regime last longer than 47 years, sans the current one which not only enslaves millions of their people because they're muslim, but harvests organs of prisoners --- prisoners whose only crime was practicing yoga.
At the end of WW2, the US could have owned the world. Instead, it allowed both friend and foe alike to rebuild themselves into the modern world we know today, not only funding the rebuilding, but opening up US markets for them to trade with. Look at JP, DE, and IT today.... Meanwhile look at the former soviet states -- they want nothing to do with russia.
Oh, and China's economy isn't growing like it had. Doesn't look like China will catch up or exceed the U.S., and its population will likely collapse over the next 40 years.
What is left out, making this graph grossly misleading, is the context of the value of the wafers at the leading edge. This is where TSMC, followed by Samsung, and less so, Intel reside. It should also be noted that most of the design for these nodes occurs in the U.S.
The EU will have difficulty introducing leading edge nodes if they are not a primary designer of the silicon that is fabbed.
China at 14.4% has a mere rounding error of "leading edge" capacity at an inefficient version of 7nm, and is blocked by the U.S. and its allies from obtaining the equipment and building the supply chain necessary to compete.
It anything, Apple has ridden the wave of TSMC success, while providing the bulk of its revenues to continue that.
Context?
How much of the world's wafer output corresponds to cutting edge nodes?
Less than 2%? And falling?
By your argument, sanctions on sales of advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology to China are of little concern...and yet, that is a real and significant imposition on China's growth, isn't it.
Fun facts;
California is set to surpass Germany as the world's fourth largest economy;
The concern is related to the damage the US is doing to its own industry. That is self harm.
US semi-conductor interests have taken a huge hit due to these unilateral extra-territorial sanctions.
In market value loss, the damage has been huge. In a more direct context the damage has also been huge. Lost revenues.
How is the industry supposed to move forward if it can't sell into its largest market? How is it supposed to generate funding for R&D?
Applied Research and NVIDIA will each take a $400mn hit in just one quarter.
And to make matters worse, the whole policy only serves to accelerate the inevitable. Chinese technological progress. Remember. No policymaker has ever mentioned 'stopping' China's progress. Simply slowing it down. Well, there is a short term and long term reading of that but the consensus is clear. China will get there.
Worse still, non-US interests have also been impacted because the rugs have been pulled out from under their feet. As a result, US technology is toxic to them and they are working to get it out of their products.
With the latest 'sanctions' it is actually worse because employees with US citizenship are probably going to lose their jobs at Chinese companies.
An executive at a Chinese semi-conductor company:
“Now we are not just trying to build up ‘US-free’ manufacturing lines but also de-Americanise the teams,” said the executive.
That's from a paywalled FT article.
Let's be clear, absolutely ALL semi-conductor companies want to do business with Chinese companies. Bar none.
Having to halt sales simply because their products contain a tiny amount of US technology has opened their eyes to extra-territorial interference. The same applies to government.
Everyone is reducing their dependence on US technology.
How does that look for US interests? Bread for today but hunger for tomorrow?
Then we have to deal with the completely crackpot ideas of some prominent US representatives. What you are about to read must have come from people who are literally detached from the real world.
They want Biden to interfere in Chinese sovereign activities on Chinese soil.
Read to believe! (and they are citing Bloomberg - yikes!)
"Dear President Biden,
We call on the administration to take immediate action to halt Huawei’s attempt to build the Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Company (PXW) semiconductor foundry. This Huawei-aligned foundry is designed to fatally undermine the U.S. strategy to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) bid to dominate global 5G markets and strengthen its intelligence and repression apparatus.
Bloomberg recently published evidence that Huawei began construction over seven months ago on a factory where PXW is expected to eventually mass produce chips as advanced as 14 nanometers and 7 nanometers. Almost all of these chips are expected to be sold to Huawei, and PXW reportedly has already ordered the advanced equipment necessary to build these chips. This would represent a dangerous leap in Chinese semiconductor manufacturing, as Chinese chipmakers have thus far only been able to produce 7-nanometer chips in limited quantities. With these new chips for its base stations, Huawei could resume its march towards 5G market dominance, and the CCP will advance its plan to control global telecommunications and extend its economic espionage and repression."
Not a word about 'national security' there. Just 5G dominance (commercial and technological interests). The espionage line is just more craziness.
LOL!
Uhm, "economic espionage and repression" are in fact valid National Security issues.
You are free to believe what you want, and for fuck sake, why would anyone want Huawei to "resume its march towards 5G market dominance".
Blackburn wants President Biden to step in and block delivery of any advanced equipment that has been ordered from the West for PXW. More to the point, why is anyone allowing advanced equipment sales to China at this point in time. I agree with that action. China is a threat to Taiwan.
According to Bloomberg sources, the Chinese tech conglomerate is now supporting a small startup ordering equipment for a semiconductor manufacturing plant. Purportedly, the new semiconductor plant, called Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Co. (known as PXW) and run by a former Huawei executive, will be built close to the Huawei headquarters as it is expected to be the plant’s biggest customer, buying “most, if not all, of its output.”
If successful, this would allow Huawei to regain its footing and begin producing devices in earnest again. However, it remains to be seen if PXW will violate U.S. trade sanctions in supplying Huawei, as that would limit what equipment can be purchased by the company. Moreover, it is reported that the company’s first products, expected in 2025, will be on 28-nanometer technology leaving the plant six or more generations behind.
Given the accusations and evidence against Huawei, it will be difficult for any company to affiliate with the denylisted organization. Some of the U.S. restrictions may extend to this new company and prevent PXW from getting off the ground. However, if not, it still sounds like Huawei will be comparatively stuck in the stone age of semiconductors for a little while.
China continues to be a threat to the West and the existing rules of order. That's on Xi and his play for absolute power in China.
Fucking Europeans. Schotz will probably allow China's COSCO to own a portion of port facilities, even though his ministers are telling him no. When will they learn...
Huawei already has 5G dominance. Where have you been? Even now, it leads the market and has already 'de-Americanised' its ICT 5G product stack. It is now simply building out capacity.
China has no recent history of direct meddling in sovereign states through military action. It considers Taiwan part of China but apart from that there is no outward threat that has been singled out to the rest of the world.
'Repression' has nothing to do with US national security.
Apart from US 'sanctions' the rest of the world is eager to sell its technology to China. Yes, ASML and all the US tech industry included. Let that sink in.
You say you don't know why anyone would want to sell advanced tech to China. You are in a very small minority. The CEO of ASML has said more than once that the US approach will not work. Weaponising technology, forcing breakage of international supply lines and forcing sovereign nations to follow US orders or else has been a wake up call to the tech world.
There is nothing anyone is doing with the foundry equipment at that new site that contravenes US sanctions. Do you think ASML et al would risk that?
However, that said, US EDA software makers have said that they would rather Chinese companies 'cracked' their software than see a Chinese rival emerge from the sanctions. Too late for that I'm afraid as that ball is already rolling too.
The request to Biden just goes to show how out of touch with reality those folks are. Try to imagine things the other way around?
It is crazy.
Huawei alone has invested in over 40 semiconductor companies with the aim of rejigging its supply lines (all of them in detriment to US semiconductor industries).
China’s ‘secret police stations’ in UK must be investigated, say MPs
London and Glasgow claimed to be among list of operations to target critics and dissidents
China has been doing this around the world for quite some time. Have to make sure the diaspora don't forget who their bosses are. More than that, the influence operations that China conducts.
You might want to post about that, with your first hand knowledge and alll.
Absolutely nothing to do with technology and my knowledge of China is far less than that of the US and I'm definitely not involved with the Chinese Police. LOL.
Stay on topic!
I never stated that you were involved with the Chinese police, but you have an affection for Huawei, and a defense of China's authoritarianism that is exceptional for AI posters. It blinds you to all of the harm that China has done, and will do, to the world, which is why I am a proponent of constraining China.
As I noted, the Western world is no longer enamored with China, and is resisting China's authoritarian impulse to change the current rules of order that have been the basis for an effective global economy since the end of WWII.
Perhaps if Huawei wasn't so closely linked with the CPC, I might give you more leeway in your views. Alas, China is Huawei, and Huawei is China.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
I have never defended authoritarian governments.
I know a lot about Huawei.
That knowledge allows me point out inaccuracies in what many people spout off about the company. Most of which are about as far from the truth as they can get, and you yourself have been found wanting over and over again.
The western world was never enamored with China in the first place. The western world as you put it and China are basically trading and investment partners. If anything the opposite of what you claim is true as China is pushing development and trading links with Africa and Latin America. The US started an ill thought out trade war with China, in part, to force China to do even more business with it.
If we put the focus on Huawei and the rest of the world, it's the same story. Watch the Huawei Connect 2022 video from this very month in Paris with members of all the big companies and EU parliament members in attendance to see what's happening here.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
That statement is factually incorrect, if not an outright lie on your part, and you know it's a lie, because you live in the West, where we have a nominal free press. That free press does not exist in China, so how would you verify anything that Huawei states? You can't
China has often been criticized for a lack of transparency, especially with regard to its economic and trade policies. While in many cases these criticisms are valid, it belies the fact that in other instances, China is remarkably open and transparent about its intentions and ambitions.
Such is the case with China’s “Opinion on Strengthening the United Front Work of the Private Economy in the New Era,” recently released by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (and further elaborated on by President Xi Jinping himself). This document tells us in no uncertain terms that Chinese private companies will be increasingly called upon to conduct their operations in tight coordination with governmental policy objectives and ideologies. The rest of the world should take note.
A Different Vision of “Private” Business
The 5,000 word “opinion” aims to ratchet-up the role and influence of the CCP within the private sector in order “to better focus the wisdom and strength of the private businesspeople on the goal and mission to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The objective is to establish a “united front” between business and government and facilitate the “enhancement of the party’s leadership over the private economy.” According to the plan, “private economic figures are to be more closely united around the party,” thereby achieving “a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee on political stand, political direction, political principles, and political roads.”
Contrast that with the free market;
All of this stands in stark contrast to long-accepted concepts of how private companies function in a free market. The overriding purpose of business, according to these traditional precepts, is to earn profits through the provision of value-added products and services, in response to marketplace signals and under the constraint of basic economic realities. Government ideology plays no role in that equation.
For the most part, Western governments only regulate private business, for a variety of reasons including National Security, but they are almost never directly involved in the operation of those businesses, and certainly not anything like the CPC is involved in businesses such as Huawei, which are part and parcel of their state security apparatus.
Ultimately, the current marketplace between the West and China has become distorted, and this coincides with Xi era of China rolling back freedoms enjoyed by the Chinese people. You seem to place the blame squarely on the West, when in fact, Xi's complete control of the Chinese government is an obvious issue in the West, as noted by the PEW poll that I posted earlier.
As for your statement that you do not defend authoritarian governments, I have seen a number of your previous statements in denial of China's human rights violations, posted here on Ai, even against overwhelming information that it is occurring, and documented by the same EU that you so strongly support otherwise.
More nonsense and not even on topic!
AT&T. Private company. 2017. Pressured out of a deal with Huawei.
No evidence ever presented. Should we be surprised?
And just to drive the message home to you:
"He recalled that GCHQ was rather unimpressed. The encounter revealed that the US case was primarily political rather than technical. So GCHQ stuck to their guns, as did the prime minister at first, Darroch explained."
Can I now say that AT&T and the UK government are now part of the US government because they changed their reasoned decisions?
The US fears that China will overtake it in the technology realm. That's it.
LOL.
You still are unable to understand the difference between companies in China and companies in the West; it's almost like you are in denial...
Sure, Western Governments shape policy, but they aren't involved in the day to day operation of businesses, nor are these businesses staffed with party members, and operated by party controlled union groups, as they are in China.
Presumably, you have worked in the West before, so you should be able to figure that out.
What is it with you and Huawei anyway? It seems an, unhealthy, attachment.
I'm in denial?
That's rich!
Look. You just veer off topic with the same anti China line over and over again. And now you imply I have some kind of issue? LOL.
There is nothing with 'me and Huawei'.
I just know a lot about the company (and Apple!) and its products. I try to comment on things I know about and stay away from stuff I'm not so knowledgeable of. Samsung could pop up somewhere here and you'll see nary a peep from me because I just don't know Samsung all that well.
As for 'shaping policy' , you seem to have brushed over my subtle point that it is the US that has been trying to shape the policy of sovereign nations for literally decades now and yes, via methods most foul too, but that has little to do with technology does it?
When it comes to the issue under discussion in this thread you literally have nothing to counter what I've pointed out because, by and large, what I have stated is fact, and largely supported by comments from the US administration itself. Especially when Trump was free to tweet his thoughts on an hourly basis.
You're gonna have to accept that.
The US is hellbent on slowing China down because future economic growth is going to be very technology related. Far more than it is now and the US is not well placed to keep pace with China. All its moves have been late and very poorly planned. Starting with 5G. It completely missed the boat.
Okay, keep going with that...
Don't let actual facts hit you in the backside...
Comparing china to THE global super power responsible likely for over half of the world's current population, due in part to the security of trade - allowing every nation to securely trade with each other. The result of which was the most peaceful period of the human race with more people lifted out of poverty than ever before. The sole power responsible for the information age.
Now come the chinese, a culture of which has never had a political regime last longer than 47 years, sans the current one which not only enslaves millions of their people because they're muslim, but harvests organs of prisoners --- prisoners whose only crime was practicing yoga.
At the end of WW2, the US could have owned the world. Instead, it allowed both friend and foe alike to rebuild themselves into the modern world we know today, not only funding the rebuilding, but opening up US markets for them to trade with. Look at JP, DE, and IT today.... Meanwhile look at the former soviet states -- they want nothing to do with russia.
Oh, and China's economy isn't growing like it had. Doesn't look like China will catch up or exceed the U.S., and its population will likely collapse over the next 40 years.
Well done!
You are now presenting comments from random internet posters to back up your off topic claims.
As recently as this week one of the biggest US semi-conductor associations (SIA) made an official statement on the CHIPS act and pushed for more of the outlay to go towards R&D, acknowledging that the semiconductor industry burns through funds like there is no tomorrow and the amounts earmarked for future development will be used up very quickly.
Of course, not being able to do good business with the number one market for its clients' products is hurting to the tune of billions. Then there is the fact that other (Chinese and non-Chinese) clients are actively working to eradicate US technology from supply chains and you get an idea of what the future of the US tech industry looks like.
Why do business with companies whose government has no issues weaponising their technology?
Surely even you can see that angle?
But just in case...
"That hurts semiconductor companies like Nvidia, which makes graphics chips used to run A.I. applications in China and elsewhere. The Silicon Valley company, already suffering from a sharp sales decline for video game applications, recently estimated that the U.S. restrictions would probably reduce revenues in its current quarter by about $400 million.
The sanctions may bite even harder at companies that sell chip-making equipment, which relied heavily in recent years on sales to Chinese factories.
Lam Research, which produces tools that etch silicon wafers to make chips, estimated that the China limitations would reduce its 2023 revenue by $2 billion to $2.5 billion. “We lost some very profitable customers in the China region, and that’s going to persist,” Doug Bettinger, Lam’s chief financial officer, said during an earnings call last week.
Applied Materials, the biggest maker of chip manufacturing tools, also said sales would suffer because of the restrictions. On Wednesday, another maker of chip manufacturing tools, KLA, said its revenue next year was likely to shrink by $600 million to $900 million as it reduces equipment sales and services to some customers in China"
What is left out, making this graph grossly misleading, is the context of the value of the wafers at the leading edge. This is where TSMC, followed by Samsung, and less so, Intel reside. It should also be noted that most of the design for these nodes occurs in the U.S.
The EU will have difficulty introducing leading edge nodes if they are not a primary designer of the silicon that is fabbed.
China at 14.4% has a mere rounding error of "leading edge" capacity at an inefficient version of 7nm, and is blocked by the U.S. and its allies from obtaining the equipment and building the supply chain necessary to compete.
It anything, Apple has ridden the wave of TSMC success, while providing the bulk of its revenues to continue that.
Context?
How much of the world's wafer output corresponds to cutting edge nodes?
Less than 2%? And falling?
By your argument, sanctions on sales of advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology to China are of little concern...and yet, that is a real and significant imposition on China's growth, isn't it.
Fun facts;
California is set to surpass Germany as the world's fourth largest economy;
The concern is related to the damage the US is doing to its own industry. That is self harm.
US semi-conductor interests have taken a huge hit due to these unilateral extra-territorial sanctions.
In market value loss, the damage has been huge. In a more direct context the damage has also been huge. Lost revenues.
How is the industry supposed to move forward if it can't sell into its largest market? How is it supposed to generate funding for R&D?
Applied Research and NVIDIA will each take a $400mn hit in just one quarter.
And to make matters worse, the whole policy only serves to accelerate the inevitable. Chinese technological progress. Remember. No policymaker has ever mentioned 'stopping' China's progress. Simply slowing it down. Well, there is a short term and long term reading of that but the consensus is clear. China will get there.
Worse still, non-US interests have also been impacted because the rugs have been pulled out from under their feet. As a result, US technology is toxic to them and they are working to get it out of their products.
With the latest 'sanctions' it is actually worse because employees with US citizenship are probably going to lose their jobs at Chinese companies.
An executive at a Chinese semi-conductor company:
“Now we are not just trying to build up ‘US-free’ manufacturing lines but also de-Americanise the teams,” said the executive.
That's from a paywalled FT article.
Let's be clear, absolutely ALL semi-conductor companies want to do business with Chinese companies. Bar none.
Having to halt sales simply because their products contain a tiny amount of US technology has opened their eyes to extra-territorial interference. The same applies to government.
Everyone is reducing their dependence on US technology.
How does that look for US interests? Bread for today but hunger for tomorrow?
Then we have to deal with the completely crackpot ideas of some prominent US representatives. What you are about to read must have come from people who are literally detached from the real world.
They want Biden to interfere in Chinese sovereign activities on Chinese soil.
Read to believe! (and they are citing Bloomberg - yikes!)
"Dear President Biden,
We call on the administration to take immediate action to halt Huawei’s attempt to build the Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Company (PXW) semiconductor foundry. This Huawei-aligned foundry is designed to fatally undermine the U.S. strategy to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) bid to dominate global 5G markets and strengthen its intelligence and repression apparatus.
Bloomberg recently published evidence that Huawei began construction over seven months ago on a factory where PXW is expected to eventually mass produce chips as advanced as 14 nanometers and 7 nanometers. Almost all of these chips are expected to be sold to Huawei, and PXW reportedly has already ordered the advanced equipment necessary to build these chips. This would represent a dangerous leap in Chinese semiconductor manufacturing, as Chinese chipmakers have thus far only been able to produce 7-nanometer chips in limited quantities. With these new chips for its base stations, Huawei could resume its march towards 5G market dominance, and the CCP will advance its plan to control global telecommunications and extend its economic espionage and repression."
Not a word about 'national security' there. Just 5G dominance (commercial and technological interests). The espionage line is just more craziness.
LOL!
Uhm, "economic espionage and repression" are in fact valid National Security issues.
You are free to believe what you want, and for fuck sake, why would anyone want Huawei to "resume its march towards 5G market dominance".
Blackburn wants President Biden to step in and block delivery of any advanced equipment that has been ordered from the West for PXW. More to the point, why is anyone allowing advanced equipment sales to China at this point in time. I agree with that action. China is a threat to Taiwan.
According to Bloomberg sources, the Chinese tech conglomerate is now supporting a small startup ordering equipment for a semiconductor manufacturing plant. Purportedly, the new semiconductor plant, called Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Co. (known as PXW) and run by a former Huawei executive, will be built close to the Huawei headquarters as it is expected to be the plant’s biggest customer, buying “most, if not all, of its output.”
If successful, this would allow Huawei to regain its footing and begin producing devices in earnest again. However, it remains to be seen if PXW will violate U.S. trade sanctions in supplying Huawei, as that would limit what equipment can be purchased by the company. Moreover, it is reported that the company’s first products, expected in 2025, will be on 28-nanometer technology leaving the plant six or more generations behind.
Given the accusations and evidence against Huawei, it will be difficult for any company to affiliate with the denylisted organization. Some of the U.S. restrictions may extend to this new company and prevent PXW from getting off the ground. However, if not, it still sounds like Huawei will be comparatively stuck in the stone age of semiconductors for a little while.
China continues to be a threat to the West and the existing rules of order. That's on Xi and his play for absolute power in China.
Fucking Europeans. Schotz will probably allow China's COSCO to own a portion of port facilities, even though his ministers are telling him no. When will they learn...
Huawei already has 5G dominance. Where have you been? Even now, it leads the market and has already 'de-Americanised' its ICT 5G product stack. It is now simply building out capacity.
China has no recent history of direct meddling in sovereign states through military action. It considers Taiwan part of China but apart from that there is no outward threat that has been singled out to the rest of the world.
'Repression' has nothing to do with US national security.
Apart from US 'sanctions' the rest of the world is eager to sell its technology to China. Yes, ASML and all the US tech industry included. Let that sink in.
You say you don't know why anyone would want to sell advanced tech to China. You are in a very small minority. The CEO of ASML has said more than once that the US approach will not work. Weaponising technology, forcing breakage of international supply lines and forcing sovereign nations to follow US orders or else has been a wake up call to the tech world.
There is nothing anyone is doing with the foundry equipment at that new site that contravenes US sanctions. Do you think ASML et al would risk that?
However, that said, US EDA software makers have said that they would rather Chinese companies 'cracked' their software than see a Chinese rival emerge from the sanctions. Too late for that I'm afraid as that ball is already rolling too.
The request to Biden just goes to show how out of touch with reality those folks are. Try to imagine things the other way around?
It is crazy.
Huawei alone has invested in over 40 semiconductor companies with the aim of rejigging its supply lines (all of them in detriment to US semiconductor industries).
China’s ‘secret police stations’ in UK must be investigated, say MPs
London and Glasgow claimed to be among list of operations to target critics and dissidents
China has been doing this around the world for quite some time. Have to make sure the diaspora don't forget who their bosses are. More than that, the influence operations that China conducts.
You might want to post about that, with your first hand knowledge and alll.
Absolutely nothing to do with technology and my knowledge of China is far less than that of the US and I'm definitely not involved with the Chinese Police. LOL.
Stay on topic!
I never stated that you were involved with the Chinese police, but you have an affection for Huawei, and a defense of China's authoritarianism that is exceptional for AI posters. It blinds you to all of the harm that China has done, and will do, to the world, which is why I am a proponent of constraining China.
As I noted, the Western world is no longer enamored with China, and is resisting China's authoritarian impulse to change the current rules of order that have been the basis for an effective global economy since the end of WWII.
Perhaps if Huawei wasn't so closely linked with the CPC, I might give you more leeway in your views. Alas, China is Huawei, and Huawei is China.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
I have never defended authoritarian governments.
I know a lot about Huawei.
That knowledge allows me point out inaccuracies in what many people spout off about the company. Most of which are about as far from the truth as they can get, and you yourself have been found wanting over and over again.
The western world was never enamored with China in the first place. The western world as you put it and China are basically trading and investment partners. If anything the opposite of what you claim is true as China is pushing development and trading links with Africa and Latin America. The US started an ill thought out trade war with China, in part, to force China to do even more business with it.
If we put the focus on Huawei and the rest of the world, it's the same story. Watch the Huawei Connect 2022 video from this very month in Paris with members of all the big companies and EU parliament members in attendance to see what's happening here.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
That statement is factually incorrect, if not an outright lie on your part, and you know it's a lie, because you live in the West, where we have a nominal free press. That free press does not exist in China, so how would you verify anything that Huawei states? You can't
China has often been criticized for a lack of transparency, especially with regard to its economic and trade policies. While in many cases these criticisms are valid, it belies the fact that in other instances, China is remarkably open and transparent about its intentions and ambitions.
Such is the case with China’s “Opinion on Strengthening the United Front Work of the Private Economy in the New Era,” recently released by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (and further elaborated on by President Xi Jinping himself). This document tells us in no uncertain terms that Chinese private companies will be increasingly called upon to conduct their operations in tight coordination with governmental policy objectives and ideologies. The rest of the world should take note.
A Different Vision of “Private” Business
The 5,000 word “opinion” aims to ratchet-up the role and influence of the CCP within the private sector in order “to better focus the wisdom and strength of the private businesspeople on the goal and mission to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The objective is to establish a “united front” between business and government and facilitate the “enhancement of the party’s leadership over the private economy.” According to the plan, “private economic figures are to be more closely united around the party,” thereby achieving “a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee on political stand, political direction, political principles, and political roads.”
Contrast that with the free market;
All of this stands in stark contrast to long-accepted concepts of how private companies function in a free market. The overriding purpose of business, according to these traditional precepts, is to earn profits through the provision of value-added products and services, in response to marketplace signals and under the constraint of basic economic realities. Government ideology plays no role in that equation.
For the most part, Western governments only regulate private business, for a variety of reasons including National Security, but they are almost never directly involved in the operation of those businesses, and certainly not anything like the CPC is involved in businesses such as Huawei, which are part and parcel of their state security apparatus.
Ultimately, the current marketplace between the West and China has become distorted, and this coincides with Xi era of China rolling back freedoms enjoyed by the Chinese people. You seem to place the blame squarely on the West, when in fact, Xi's complete control of the Chinese government is an obvious issue in the West, as noted by the PEW poll that I posted earlier.
As for your statement that you do not defend authoritarian governments, I have seen a number of your previous statements in denial of China's human rights violations, posted here on Ai, even against overwhelming information that it is occurring, and documented by the same EU that you so strongly support otherwise.
More nonsense and not even on topic!
AT&T. Private company. 2017. Pressured out of a deal with Huawei.
No evidence ever presented. Should we be surprised?
And just to drive the message home to you:
"He recalled that GCHQ was rather unimpressed. The encounter revealed that the US case was primarily political rather than technical. So GCHQ stuck to their guns, as did the prime minister at first, Darroch explained."
Can I now say that AT&T and the UK government are now part of the US government because they changed their reasoned decisions?
The US fears that China will overtake it in the technology realm. That's it.
LOL.
You still are unable to understand the difference between companies in China and companies in the West; it's almost like you are in denial...
Sure, Western Governments shape policy, but they aren't involved in the day to day operation of businesses, nor are these businesses staffed with party members, and operated by party controlled union groups, as they are in China.
Presumably, you have worked in the West before, so you should be able to figure that out.
What is it with you and Huawei anyway? It seems an, unhealthy, attachment.
I'm in denial?
That's rich!
Look. You just veer off topic with the same anti China line over and over again. And now you imply I have some kind of issue? LOL.
There is nothing with 'me and Huawei'.
I just know a lot about the company (and Apple!) and its products. I try to comment on things I know about and stay away from stuff I'm not so knowledgeable of. Samsung could pop up somewhere here and you'll see nary a peep from me because I just don't know Samsung all that well.
As for 'shaping policy' , you seem to have brushed over my subtle point that it is the US that has been trying to shape the policy of sovereign nations for literally decades now and yes, via methods most foul too, but that has little to do with technology does it?
When it comes to the issue under discussion in this thread you literally have nothing to counter what I've pointed out because, by and large, what I have stated is fact, and largely supported by comments from the US administration itself. Especially when Trump was free to tweet his thoughts on an hourly basis.
You're gonna have to accept that.
The US is hellbent on slowing China down because future economic growth is going to be very technology related. Far more than it is now and the US is not well placed to keep pace with China. All its moves have been late and very poorly planned. Starting with 5G. It completely missed the boat.
Okay, keep going with that...
Don't let actual facts hit you in the backside...
Comparing china to THE global super power responsible likely for over half of the world's current population, due in part to the security of trade - allowing every nation to securely trade with each other. The result of which was the most peaceful period of the human race with more people lifted out of poverty than ever before. The sole power responsible for the information age.
Now come the chinese, a culture of which has never had a political regime last longer than 47 years, sans the current one which not only enslaves millions of their people because they're muslim, but harvests organs of prisoners --- prisoners whose only crime was practicing yoga.
At the end of WW2, the US could have owned the world. Instead, it allowed both friend and foe alike to rebuild themselves into the modern world we know today, not only funding the rebuilding, but opening up US markets for them to trade with. Look at JP, DE, and IT today.... Meanwhile look at the former soviet states -- they want nothing to do with russia.
Oh, and China's economy isn't growing like it had. Doesn't look like China will catch up or exceed the U.S., and its population will likely collapse over the next 40 years.
Well done!
You are now presenting comments from random internet posters to back up your off topic claims.
As recently as this week one of the biggest US semi-conductor associations (SIA) made an official statement on the CHIPS act and pushed for more of the outlay to go towards R&D, acknowledging that the semiconductor industry burns through funds like there is no tomorrow and the amounts earmarked for future development will be used up very quickly.
Of course, not being able to do good business with the number one market for its clients' products is hurting to the tune of billions. Then there is the fact that other (Chinese and non-Chinese) clients are actively working to eradicate US technology from supply chains and you get an idea of what the future of the US tech industry looks like.
Why do business with companies whose government has no issues weaponising their technology?
Surely even you can see that angle?
But just in case...
"That hurts semiconductor companies like Nvidia, which makes graphics chips used to run A.I. applications in China and elsewhere. The Silicon Valley company, already suffering from a sharp sales decline for video game applications, recently estimated that the U.S. restrictions would probably reduce revenues in its current quarter by about $400 million.
The sanctions may bite even harder at companies that sell chip-making equipment, which relied heavily in recent years on sales to Chinese factories.
Lam Research, which produces tools that etch silicon wafers to make chips, estimated that the China limitations would reduce its 2023 revenue by $2 billion to $2.5 billion. “We lost some very profitable customers in the China region, and that’s going to persist,” Doug Bettinger, Lam’s chief financial officer, said during an earnings call last week.
Applied Materials, the biggest maker of chip manufacturing tools, also said sales would suffer because of the restrictions. On Wednesday, another maker of chip manufacturing tools, KLA, said its revenue next year was likely to shrink by $600 million to $900 million as it reduces equipment sales and services to some customers in China"
If only China wasn't weaponizing all of this technology, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
The promise of the blockade of technology to China, is to prevent Xi from growing the economy at the expense of the West, which has already slowed due to COVID, and the collapsing real estate market, and to prevent the PLA from increasing the lethality of its weapons, especially through AI. These blockades may not work indefinitely, but they only need to be successful through the end of the decade for the West to prepare against an increasing militant China. It also means the China will have to increasingly spend more on R&D to keep up with the West.
Funny how authoritarians are so fond of taking hostages, for later negotiations, but either way, those hostages, the human rights violations, and the repression of Hong Kong turned the tide agains Huawei and China. Epic fuckup on Xi's part, as it Xi didn't want a more insular and self sufficient China anyway.
As for the whinging of the semi-conductor supply chain, it is temporary, and supply chain will only increase outside of China, buy you knew that.
As for the comment that I posted above, it provides a historical context. that you fuckers in the EU have been coasting on your National Defense spending, and always depend on the U.S. to come to the rescue when some aggressor, aka Russia decides to threaten or invade. More than that, the EU, as well as the rest of the world benefits from the U.S. Navy providing freedom of navigation that is the basis of global trade.
Now if we can just get the EU to stop trading democracy for exports, we might actually end up in a great place.
What is left out, making this graph grossly misleading, is the context of the value of the wafers at the leading edge. This is where TSMC, followed by Samsung, and less so, Intel reside. It should also be noted that most of the design for these nodes occurs in the U.S.
The EU will have difficulty introducing leading edge nodes if they are not a primary designer of the silicon that is fabbed.
China at 14.4% has a mere rounding error of "leading edge" capacity at an inefficient version of 7nm, and is blocked by the U.S. and its allies from obtaining the equipment and building the supply chain necessary to compete.
It anything, Apple has ridden the wave of TSMC success, while providing the bulk of its revenues to continue that.
Context?
How much of the world's wafer output corresponds to cutting edge nodes?
Less than 2%? And falling?
By your argument, sanctions on sales of advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology to China are of little concern...and yet, that is a real and significant imposition on China's growth, isn't it.
Fun facts;
California is set to surpass Germany as the world's fourth largest economy;
The concern is related to the damage the US is doing to its own industry. That is self harm.
US semi-conductor interests have taken a huge hit due to these unilateral extra-territorial sanctions.
In market value loss, the damage has been huge. In a more direct context the damage has also been huge. Lost revenues.
How is the industry supposed to move forward if it can't sell into its largest market? How is it supposed to generate funding for R&D?
Applied Research and NVIDIA will each take a $400mn hit in just one quarter.
And to make matters worse, the whole policy only serves to accelerate the inevitable. Chinese technological progress. Remember. No policymaker has ever mentioned 'stopping' China's progress. Simply slowing it down. Well, there is a short term and long term reading of that but the consensus is clear. China will get there.
Worse still, non-US interests have also been impacted because the rugs have been pulled out from under their feet. As a result, US technology is toxic to them and they are working to get it out of their products.
With the latest 'sanctions' it is actually worse because employees with US citizenship are probably going to lose their jobs at Chinese companies.
An executive at a Chinese semi-conductor company:
“Now we are not just trying to build up ‘US-free’ manufacturing lines but also de-Americanise the teams,” said the executive.
That's from a paywalled FT article.
Let's be clear, absolutely ALL semi-conductor companies want to do business with Chinese companies. Bar none.
Having to halt sales simply because their products contain a tiny amount of US technology has opened their eyes to extra-territorial interference. The same applies to government.
Everyone is reducing their dependence on US technology.
How does that look for US interests? Bread for today but hunger for tomorrow?
Then we have to deal with the completely crackpot ideas of some prominent US representatives. What you are about to read must have come from people who are literally detached from the real world.
They want Biden to interfere in Chinese sovereign activities on Chinese soil.
Read to believe! (and they are citing Bloomberg - yikes!)
"Dear President Biden,
We call on the administration to take immediate action to halt Huawei’s attempt to build the Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Company (PXW) semiconductor foundry. This Huawei-aligned foundry is designed to fatally undermine the U.S. strategy to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) bid to dominate global 5G markets and strengthen its intelligence and repression apparatus.
Bloomberg recently published evidence that Huawei began construction over seven months ago on a factory where PXW is expected to eventually mass produce chips as advanced as 14 nanometers and 7 nanometers. Almost all of these chips are expected to be sold to Huawei, and PXW reportedly has already ordered the advanced equipment necessary to build these chips. This would represent a dangerous leap in Chinese semiconductor manufacturing, as Chinese chipmakers have thus far only been able to produce 7-nanometer chips in limited quantities. With these new chips for its base stations, Huawei could resume its march towards 5G market dominance, and the CCP will advance its plan to control global telecommunications and extend its economic espionage and repression."
Not a word about 'national security' there. Just 5G dominance (commercial and technological interests). The espionage line is just more craziness.
LOL!
Uhm, "economic espionage and repression" are in fact valid National Security issues.
You are free to believe what you want, and for fuck sake, why would anyone want Huawei to "resume its march towards 5G market dominance".
Blackburn wants President Biden to step in and block delivery of any advanced equipment that has been ordered from the West for PXW. More to the point, why is anyone allowing advanced equipment sales to China at this point in time. I agree with that action. China is a threat to Taiwan.
According to Bloomberg sources, the Chinese tech conglomerate is now supporting a small startup ordering equipment for a semiconductor manufacturing plant. Purportedly, the new semiconductor plant, called Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Co. (known as PXW) and run by a former Huawei executive, will be built close to the Huawei headquarters as it is expected to be the plant’s biggest customer, buying “most, if not all, of its output.”
If successful, this would allow Huawei to regain its footing and begin producing devices in earnest again. However, it remains to be seen if PXW will violate U.S. trade sanctions in supplying Huawei, as that would limit what equipment can be purchased by the company. Moreover, it is reported that the company’s first products, expected in 2025, will be on 28-nanometer technology leaving the plant six or more generations behind.
Given the accusations and evidence against Huawei, it will be difficult for any company to affiliate with the denylisted organization. Some of the U.S. restrictions may extend to this new company and prevent PXW from getting off the ground. However, if not, it still sounds like Huawei will be comparatively stuck in the stone age of semiconductors for a little while.
China continues to be a threat to the West and the existing rules of order. That's on Xi and his play for absolute power in China.
Fucking Europeans. Schotz will probably allow China's COSCO to own a portion of port facilities, even though his ministers are telling him no. When will they learn...
Huawei already has 5G dominance. Where have you been? Even now, it leads the market and has already 'de-Americanised' its ICT 5G product stack. It is now simply building out capacity.
China has no recent history of direct meddling in sovereign states through military action. It considers Taiwan part of China but apart from that there is no outward threat that has been singled out to the rest of the world.
'Repression' has nothing to do with US national security.
Apart from US 'sanctions' the rest of the world is eager to sell its technology to China. Yes, ASML and all the US tech industry included. Let that sink in.
You say you don't know why anyone would want to sell advanced tech to China. You are in a very small minority. The CEO of ASML has said more than once that the US approach will not work. Weaponising technology, forcing breakage of international supply lines and forcing sovereign nations to follow US orders or else has been a wake up call to the tech world.
There is nothing anyone is doing with the foundry equipment at that new site that contravenes US sanctions. Do you think ASML et al would risk that?
However, that said, US EDA software makers have said that they would rather Chinese companies 'cracked' their software than see a Chinese rival emerge from the sanctions. Too late for that I'm afraid as that ball is already rolling too.
The request to Biden just goes to show how out of touch with reality those folks are. Try to imagine things the other way around?
It is crazy.
Huawei alone has invested in over 40 semiconductor companies with the aim of rejigging its supply lines (all of them in detriment to US semiconductor industries).
China’s ‘secret police stations’ in UK must be investigated, say MPs
London and Glasgow claimed to be among list of operations to target critics and dissidents
China has been doing this around the world for quite some time. Have to make sure the diaspora don't forget who their bosses are. More than that, the influence operations that China conducts.
You might want to post about that, with your first hand knowledge and alll.
Absolutely nothing to do with technology and my knowledge of China is far less than that of the US and I'm definitely not involved with the Chinese Police. LOL.
Stay on topic!
I never stated that you were involved with the Chinese police, but you have an affection for Huawei, and a defense of China's authoritarianism that is exceptional for AI posters. It blinds you to all of the harm that China has done, and will do, to the world, which is why I am a proponent of constraining China.
As I noted, the Western world is no longer enamored with China, and is resisting China's authoritarian impulse to change the current rules of order that have been the basis for an effective global economy since the end of WWII.
Perhaps if Huawei wasn't so closely linked with the CPC, I might give you more leeway in your views. Alas, China is Huawei, and Huawei is China.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
I have never defended authoritarian governments.
I know a lot about Huawei.
That knowledge allows me point out inaccuracies in what many people spout off about the company. Most of which are about as far from the truth as they can get, and you yourself have been found wanting over and over again.
The western world was never enamored with China in the first place. The western world as you put it and China are basically trading and investment partners. If anything the opposite of what you claim is true as China is pushing development and trading links with Africa and Latin America. The US started an ill thought out trade war with China, in part, to force China to do even more business with it.
If we put the focus on Huawei and the rest of the world, it's the same story. Watch the Huawei Connect 2022 video from this very month in Paris with members of all the big companies and EU parliament members in attendance to see what's happening here.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
That statement is factually incorrect, if not an outright lie on your part, and you know it's a lie, because you live in the West, where we have a nominal free press. That free press does not exist in China, so how would you verify anything that Huawei states? You can't
China has often been criticized for a lack of transparency, especially with regard to its economic and trade policies. While in many cases these criticisms are valid, it belies the fact that in other instances, China is remarkably open and transparent about its intentions and ambitions.
Such is the case with China’s “Opinion on Strengthening the United Front Work of the Private Economy in the New Era,” recently released by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (and further elaborated on by President Xi Jinping himself). This document tells us in no uncertain terms that Chinese private companies will be increasingly called upon to conduct their operations in tight coordination with governmental policy objectives and ideologies. The rest of the world should take note.
A Different Vision of “Private” Business
The 5,000 word “opinion” aims to ratchet-up the role and influence of the CCP within the private sector in order “to better focus the wisdom and strength of the private businesspeople on the goal and mission to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The objective is to establish a “united front” between business and government and facilitate the “enhancement of the party’s leadership over the private economy.” According to the plan, “private economic figures are to be more closely united around the party,” thereby achieving “a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee on political stand, political direction, political principles, and political roads.”
Contrast that with the free market;
All of this stands in stark contrast to long-accepted concepts of how private companies function in a free market. The overriding purpose of business, according to these traditional precepts, is to earn profits through the provision of value-added products and services, in response to marketplace signals and under the constraint of basic economic realities. Government ideology plays no role in that equation.
For the most part, Western governments only regulate private business, for a variety of reasons including National Security, but they are almost never directly involved in the operation of those businesses, and certainly not anything like the CPC is involved in businesses such as Huawei, which are part and parcel of their state security apparatus.
Ultimately, the current marketplace between the West and China has become distorted, and this coincides with Xi era of China rolling back freedoms enjoyed by the Chinese people. You seem to place the blame squarely on the West, when in fact, Xi's complete control of the Chinese government is an obvious issue in the West, as noted by the PEW poll that I posted earlier.
As for your statement that you do not defend authoritarian governments, I have seen a number of your previous statements in denial of China's human rights violations, posted here on Ai, even against overwhelming information that it is occurring, and documented by the same EU that you so strongly support otherwise.
More nonsense and not even on topic!
AT&T. Private company. 2017. Pressured out of a deal with Huawei.
No evidence ever presented. Should we be surprised?
And just to drive the message home to you:
"He recalled that GCHQ was rather unimpressed. The encounter revealed that the US case was primarily political rather than technical. So GCHQ stuck to their guns, as did the prime minister at first, Darroch explained."
Can I now say that AT&T and the UK government are now part of the US government because they changed their reasoned decisions?
The US fears that China will overtake it in the technology realm. That's it.
LOL.
You still are unable to understand the difference between companies in China and companies in the West; it's almost like you are in denial...
Sure, Western Governments shape policy, but they aren't involved in the day to day operation of businesses, nor are these businesses staffed with party members, and operated by party controlled union groups, as they are in China.
Presumably, you have worked in the West before, so you should be able to figure that out.
What is it with you and Huawei anyway? It seems an, unhealthy, attachment.
I'm in denial?
That's rich!
Look. You just veer off topic with the same anti China line over and over again. And now you imply I have some kind of issue? LOL.
There is nothing with 'me and Huawei'.
I just know a lot about the company (and Apple!) and its products. I try to comment on things I know about and stay away from stuff I'm not so knowledgeable of. Samsung could pop up somewhere here and you'll see nary a peep from me because I just don't know Samsung all that well.
As for 'shaping policy' , you seem to have brushed over my subtle point that it is the US that has been trying to shape the policy of sovereign nations for literally decades now and yes, via methods most foul too, but that has little to do with technology does it?
When it comes to the issue under discussion in this thread you literally have nothing to counter what I've pointed out because, by and large, what I have stated is fact, and largely supported by comments from the US administration itself. Especially when Trump was free to tweet his thoughts on an hourly basis.
You're gonna have to accept that.
The US is hellbent on slowing China down because future economic growth is going to be very technology related. Far more than it is now and the US is not well placed to keep pace with China. All its moves have been late and very poorly planned. Starting with 5G. It completely missed the boat.
Okay, keep going with that...
Don't let actual facts hit you in the backside...
Comparing china to THE global super power responsible likely for over half of the world's current population, due in part to the security of trade - allowing every nation to securely trade with each other. The result of which was the most peaceful period of the human race with more people lifted out of poverty than ever before. The sole power responsible for the information age.
Now come the chinese, a culture of which has never had a political regime last longer than 47 years, sans the current one which not only enslaves millions of their people because they're muslim, but harvests organs of prisoners --- prisoners whose only crime was practicing yoga.
At the end of WW2, the US could have owned the world. Instead, it allowed both friend and foe alike to rebuild themselves into the modern world we know today, not only funding the rebuilding, but opening up US markets for them to trade with. Look at JP, DE, and IT today.... Meanwhile look at the former soviet states -- they want nothing to do with russia.
Oh, and China's economy isn't growing like it had. Doesn't look like China will catch up or exceed the U.S., and its population will likely collapse over the next 40 years.
Well done!
You are now presenting comments from random internet posters to back up your off topic claims.
As recently as this week one of the biggest US semi-conductor associations (SIA) made an official statement on the CHIPS act and pushed for more of the outlay to go towards R&D, acknowledging that the semiconductor industry burns through funds like there is no tomorrow and the amounts earmarked for future development will be used up very quickly.
Of course, not being able to do good business with the number one market for its clients' products is hurting to the tune of billions. Then there is the fact that other (Chinese and non-Chinese) clients are actively working to eradicate US technology from supply chains and you get an idea of what the future of the US tech industry looks like.
Why do business with companies whose government has no issues weaponising their technology?
Surely even you can see that angle?
But just in case...
"That hurts semiconductor companies like Nvidia, which makes graphics chips used to run A.I. applications in China and elsewhere. The Silicon Valley company, already suffering from a sharp sales decline for video game applications, recently estimated that the U.S. restrictions would probably reduce revenues in its current quarter by about $400 million.
The sanctions may bite even harder at companies that sell chip-making equipment, which relied heavily in recent years on sales to Chinese factories.
Lam Research, which produces tools that etch silicon wafers to make chips, estimated that the China limitations would reduce its 2023 revenue by $2 billion to $2.5 billion. “We lost some very profitable customers in the China region, and that’s going to persist,” Doug Bettinger, Lam’s chief financial officer, said during an earnings call last week.
Applied Materials, the biggest maker of chip manufacturing tools, also said sales would suffer because of the restrictions. On Wednesday, another maker of chip manufacturing tools, KLA, said its revenue next year was likely to shrink by $600 million to $900 million as it reduces equipment sales and services to some customers in China"
If only China wasn't weaponizing all of this technology, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
The promise of the blockade of technology to China, is to prevent Xi from growing the economy at the expense of the West, which has already slowed due to COVID, and the collapsing real estate market, and to prevent the PLA from increasing the lethality of its weapons, especially through AI. These blockades may not work indefinitely, but they only need to be successful through the end of the decade for the West to prepare against an increasing militant China. It also means the China will have to increasingly spend more on R&D to keep up with the West.
Funny how authoritarians are so fond of taking hostages, for later negotiations, but either way, those hostages, the human rights violations, and the repression of Hong Kong turned the tide agains Huawei and China. Epic fuckup on Xi's part, as it Xi didn't want a more insular and self sufficient China anyway.
As for the whinging of the semi-conductor supply chain, it is temporary, and supply chain will only increase outside of China, buy you knew that.
As for the comment that I posted above, it provides a historical context. that you fuckers in the EU have been coasting on your National Defense spending, and always depend on the U.S. to come to the rescue when some aggressor, aka Russia decides to threaten or invade. More than that, the EU, as well as the rest of the world benefits from the U.S. Navy providing freedom of navigation that is the basis of global trade.
Now if we can just get the EU to stop trading democracy for exports, we might actually end up in a great place.
Well, the EU is also de-Americanising so don't expect much from that but then again, the entire industry is de-Americanising so you'll have to live with that.
Trump pulled the trigger but the bullet hasn't hit yet. Pointing a big finger at non-US companies and telling them 'you can't sell your products to other non-US companies without a US granted licence' is not the way you generate trust. The US is a technologically toxic market now.
The semiconductor industry isn't 'whinging' about it, it is worried about its future (which now depends more and more on government funding) because it can't sell to its largest market. It has seen share prices slashed, revenues severely impacted, R&D reduced, and worst of all, new competitors rising on the horizon in every area of the semi conductor supply chain.
It is far from a 'temporary' situation because those new competitors will be undercutting US technology in the long run.
It is estimated that the US lost 11 billion dollars in revenues from Huawei alone in the first year of sanctions. Think about it. That's just one company.
What is left out, making this graph grossly misleading, is the context of the value of the wafers at the leading edge. This is where TSMC, followed by Samsung, and less so, Intel reside. It should also be noted that most of the design for these nodes occurs in the U.S.
The EU will have difficulty introducing leading edge nodes if they are not a primary designer of the silicon that is fabbed.
China at 14.4% has a mere rounding error of "leading edge" capacity at an inefficient version of 7nm, and is blocked by the U.S. and its allies from obtaining the equipment and building the supply chain necessary to compete.
It anything, Apple has ridden the wave of TSMC success, while providing the bulk of its revenues to continue that.
Context?
How much of the world's wafer output corresponds to cutting edge nodes?
Less than 2%? And falling?
By your argument, sanctions on sales of advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology to China are of little concern...and yet, that is a real and significant imposition on China's growth, isn't it.
Fun facts;
California is set to surpass Germany as the world's fourth largest economy;
The concern is related to the damage the US is doing to its own industry. That is self harm.
US semi-conductor interests have taken a huge hit due to these unilateral extra-territorial sanctions.
In market value loss, the damage has been huge. In a more direct context the damage has also been huge. Lost revenues.
How is the industry supposed to move forward if it can't sell into its largest market? How is it supposed to generate funding for R&D?
Applied Research and NVIDIA will each take a $400mn hit in just one quarter.
And to make matters worse, the whole policy only serves to accelerate the inevitable. Chinese technological progress. Remember. No policymaker has ever mentioned 'stopping' China's progress. Simply slowing it down. Well, there is a short term and long term reading of that but the consensus is clear. China will get there.
Worse still, non-US interests have also been impacted because the rugs have been pulled out from under their feet. As a result, US technology is toxic to them and they are working to get it out of their products.
With the latest 'sanctions' it is actually worse because employees with US citizenship are probably going to lose their jobs at Chinese companies.
An executive at a Chinese semi-conductor company:
“Now we are not just trying to build up ‘US-free’ manufacturing lines but also de-Americanise the teams,” said the executive.
That's from a paywalled FT article.
Let's be clear, absolutely ALL semi-conductor companies want to do business with Chinese companies. Bar none.
Having to halt sales simply because their products contain a tiny amount of US technology has opened their eyes to extra-territorial interference. The same applies to government.
Everyone is reducing their dependence on US technology.
How does that look for US interests? Bread for today but hunger for tomorrow?
Then we have to deal with the completely crackpot ideas of some prominent US representatives. What you are about to read must have come from people who are literally detached from the real world.
They want Biden to interfere in Chinese sovereign activities on Chinese soil.
Read to believe! (and they are citing Bloomberg - yikes!)
"Dear President Biden,
We call on the administration to take immediate action to halt Huawei’s attempt to build the Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Company (PXW) semiconductor foundry. This Huawei-aligned foundry is designed to fatally undermine the U.S. strategy to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) bid to dominate global 5G markets and strengthen its intelligence and repression apparatus.
Bloomberg recently published evidence that Huawei began construction over seven months ago on a factory where PXW is expected to eventually mass produce chips as advanced as 14 nanometers and 7 nanometers. Almost all of these chips are expected to be sold to Huawei, and PXW reportedly has already ordered the advanced equipment necessary to build these chips. This would represent a dangerous leap in Chinese semiconductor manufacturing, as Chinese chipmakers have thus far only been able to produce 7-nanometer chips in limited quantities. With these new chips for its base stations, Huawei could resume its march towards 5G market dominance, and the CCP will advance its plan to control global telecommunications and extend its economic espionage and repression."
Not a word about 'national security' there. Just 5G dominance (commercial and technological interests). The espionage line is just more craziness.
LOL!
Uhm, "economic espionage and repression" are in fact valid National Security issues.
You are free to believe what you want, and for fuck sake, why would anyone want Huawei to "resume its march towards 5G market dominance".
Blackburn wants President Biden to step in and block delivery of any advanced equipment that has been ordered from the West for PXW. More to the point, why is anyone allowing advanced equipment sales to China at this point in time. I agree with that action. China is a threat to Taiwan.
According to Bloomberg sources, the Chinese tech conglomerate is now supporting a small startup ordering equipment for a semiconductor manufacturing plant. Purportedly, the new semiconductor plant, called Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Co. (known as PXW) and run by a former Huawei executive, will be built close to the Huawei headquarters as it is expected to be the plant’s biggest customer, buying “most, if not all, of its output.”
If successful, this would allow Huawei to regain its footing and begin producing devices in earnest again. However, it remains to be seen if PXW will violate U.S. trade sanctions in supplying Huawei, as that would limit what equipment can be purchased by the company. Moreover, it is reported that the company’s first products, expected in 2025, will be on 28-nanometer technology leaving the plant six or more generations behind.
Given the accusations and evidence against Huawei, it will be difficult for any company to affiliate with the denylisted organization. Some of the U.S. restrictions may extend to this new company and prevent PXW from getting off the ground. However, if not, it still sounds like Huawei will be comparatively stuck in the stone age of semiconductors for a little while.
China continues to be a threat to the West and the existing rules of order. That's on Xi and his play for absolute power in China.
Fucking Europeans. Schotz will probably allow China's COSCO to own a portion of port facilities, even though his ministers are telling him no. When will they learn...
Huawei already has 5G dominance. Where have you been? Even now, it leads the market and has already 'de-Americanised' its ICT 5G product stack. It is now simply building out capacity.
China has no recent history of direct meddling in sovereign states through military action. It considers Taiwan part of China but apart from that there is no outward threat that has been singled out to the rest of the world.
'Repression' has nothing to do with US national security.
Apart from US 'sanctions' the rest of the world is eager to sell its technology to China. Yes, ASML and all the US tech industry included. Let that sink in.
You say you don't know why anyone would want to sell advanced tech to China. You are in a very small minority. The CEO of ASML has said more than once that the US approach will not work. Weaponising technology, forcing breakage of international supply lines and forcing sovereign nations to follow US orders or else has been a wake up call to the tech world.
There is nothing anyone is doing with the foundry equipment at that new site that contravenes US sanctions. Do you think ASML et al would risk that?
However, that said, US EDA software makers have said that they would rather Chinese companies 'cracked' their software than see a Chinese rival emerge from the sanctions. Too late for that I'm afraid as that ball is already rolling too.
The request to Biden just goes to show how out of touch with reality those folks are. Try to imagine things the other way around?
It is crazy.
Huawei alone has invested in over 40 semiconductor companies with the aim of rejigging its supply lines (all of them in detriment to US semiconductor industries).
China’s ‘secret police stations’ in UK must be investigated, say MPs
London and Glasgow claimed to be among list of operations to target critics and dissidents
China has been doing this around the world for quite some time. Have to make sure the diaspora don't forget who their bosses are. More than that, the influence operations that China conducts.
You might want to post about that, with your first hand knowledge and alll.
Absolutely nothing to do with technology and my knowledge of China is far less than that of the US and I'm definitely not involved with the Chinese Police. LOL.
Stay on topic!
I never stated that you were involved with the Chinese police, but you have an affection for Huawei, and a defense of China's authoritarianism that is exceptional for AI posters. It blinds you to all of the harm that China has done, and will do, to the world, which is why I am a proponent of constraining China.
As I noted, the Western world is no longer enamored with China, and is resisting China's authoritarian impulse to change the current rules of order that have been the basis for an effective global economy since the end of WWII.
Perhaps if Huawei wasn't so closely linked with the CPC, I might give you more leeway in your views. Alas, China is Huawei, and Huawei is China.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
I have never defended authoritarian governments.
I know a lot about Huawei.
That knowledge allows me point out inaccuracies in what many people spout off about the company. Most of which are about as far from the truth as they can get, and you yourself have been found wanting over and over again.
The western world was never enamored with China in the first place. The western world as you put it and China are basically trading and investment partners. If anything the opposite of what you claim is true as China is pushing development and trading links with Africa and Latin America. The US started an ill thought out trade war with China, in part, to force China to do even more business with it.
If we put the focus on Huawei and the rest of the world, it's the same story. Watch the Huawei Connect 2022 video from this very month in Paris with members of all the big companies and EU parliament members in attendance to see what's happening here.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
That statement is factually incorrect, if not an outright lie on your part, and you know it's a lie, because you live in the West, where we have a nominal free press. That free press does not exist in China, so how would you verify anything that Huawei states? You can't
China has often been criticized for a lack of transparency, especially with regard to its economic and trade policies. While in many cases these criticisms are valid, it belies the fact that in other instances, China is remarkably open and transparent about its intentions and ambitions.
Such is the case with China’s “Opinion on Strengthening the United Front Work of the Private Economy in the New Era,” recently released by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (and further elaborated on by President Xi Jinping himself). This document tells us in no uncertain terms that Chinese private companies will be increasingly called upon to conduct their operations in tight coordination with governmental policy objectives and ideologies. The rest of the world should take note.
A Different Vision of “Private” Business
The 5,000 word “opinion” aims to ratchet-up the role and influence of the CCP within the private sector in order “to better focus the wisdom and strength of the private businesspeople on the goal and mission to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The objective is to establish a “united front” between business and government and facilitate the “enhancement of the party’s leadership over the private economy.” According to the plan, “private economic figures are to be more closely united around the party,” thereby achieving “a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee on political stand, political direction, political principles, and political roads.”
Contrast that with the free market;
All of this stands in stark contrast to long-accepted concepts of how private companies function in a free market. The overriding purpose of business, according to these traditional precepts, is to earn profits through the provision of value-added products and services, in response to marketplace signals and under the constraint of basic economic realities. Government ideology plays no role in that equation.
For the most part, Western governments only regulate private business, for a variety of reasons including National Security, but they are almost never directly involved in the operation of those businesses, and certainly not anything like the CPC is involved in businesses such as Huawei, which are part and parcel of their state security apparatus.
Ultimately, the current marketplace between the West and China has become distorted, and this coincides with Xi era of China rolling back freedoms enjoyed by the Chinese people. You seem to place the blame squarely on the West, when in fact, Xi's complete control of the Chinese government is an obvious issue in the West, as noted by the PEW poll that I posted earlier.
As for your statement that you do not defend authoritarian governments, I have seen a number of your previous statements in denial of China's human rights violations, posted here on Ai, even against overwhelming information that it is occurring, and documented by the same EU that you so strongly support otherwise.
More nonsense and not even on topic!
AT&T. Private company. 2017. Pressured out of a deal with Huawei.
No evidence ever presented. Should we be surprised?
And just to drive the message home to you:
"He recalled that GCHQ was rather unimpressed. The encounter revealed that the US case was primarily political rather than technical. So GCHQ stuck to their guns, as did the prime minister at first, Darroch explained."
Can I now say that AT&T and the UK government are now part of the US government because they changed their reasoned decisions?
The US fears that China will overtake it in the technology realm. That's it.
LOL.
You still are unable to understand the difference between companies in China and companies in the West; it's almost like you are in denial...
Sure, Western Governments shape policy, but they aren't involved in the day to day operation of businesses, nor are these businesses staffed with party members, and operated by party controlled union groups, as they are in China.
Presumably, you have worked in the West before, so you should be able to figure that out.
What is it with you and Huawei anyway? It seems an, unhealthy, attachment.
I'm in denial?
That's rich!
Look. You just veer off topic with the same anti China line over and over again. And now you imply I have some kind of issue? LOL.
There is nothing with 'me and Huawei'.
I just know a lot about the company (and Apple!) and its products. I try to comment on things I know about and stay away from stuff I'm not so knowledgeable of. Samsung could pop up somewhere here and you'll see nary a peep from me because I just don't know Samsung all that well.
As for 'shaping policy' , you seem to have brushed over my subtle point that it is the US that has been trying to shape the policy of sovereign nations for literally decades now and yes, via methods most foul too, but that has little to do with technology does it?
When it comes to the issue under discussion in this thread you literally have nothing to counter what I've pointed out because, by and large, what I have stated is fact, and largely supported by comments from the US administration itself. Especially when Trump was free to tweet his thoughts on an hourly basis.
You're gonna have to accept that.
The US is hellbent on slowing China down because future economic growth is going to be very technology related. Far more than it is now and the US is not well placed to keep pace with China. All its moves have been late and very poorly planned. Starting with 5G. It completely missed the boat.
Okay, keep going with that...
Don't let actual facts hit you in the backside...
Comparing china to THE global super power responsible likely for over half of the world's current population, due in part to the security of trade - allowing every nation to securely trade with each other. The result of which was the most peaceful period of the human race with more people lifted out of poverty than ever before. The sole power responsible for the information age.
Now come the chinese, a culture of which has never had a political regime last longer than 47 years, sans the current one which not only enslaves millions of their people because they're muslim, but harvests organs of prisoners --- prisoners whose only crime was practicing yoga.
At the end of WW2, the US could have owned the world. Instead, it allowed both friend and foe alike to rebuild themselves into the modern world we know today, not only funding the rebuilding, but opening up US markets for them to trade with. Look at JP, DE, and IT today.... Meanwhile look at the former soviet states -- they want nothing to do with russia.
Oh, and China's economy isn't growing like it had. Doesn't look like China will catch up or exceed the U.S., and its population will likely collapse over the next 40 years.
Well done!
You are now presenting comments from random internet posters to back up your off topic claims.
As recently as this week one of the biggest US semi-conductor associations (SIA) made an official statement on the CHIPS act and pushed for more of the outlay to go towards R&D, acknowledging that the semiconductor industry burns through funds like there is no tomorrow and the amounts earmarked for future development will be used up very quickly.
Of course, not being able to do good business with the number one market for its clients' products is hurting to the tune of billions. Then there is the fact that other (Chinese and non-Chinese) clients are actively working to eradicate US technology from supply chains and you get an idea of what the future of the US tech industry looks like.
Why do business with companies whose government has no issues weaponising their technology?
Surely even you can see that angle?
But just in case...
"That hurts semiconductor companies like Nvidia, which makes graphics chips used to run A.I. applications in China and elsewhere. The Silicon Valley company, already suffering from a sharp sales decline for video game applications, recently estimated that the U.S. restrictions would probably reduce revenues in its current quarter by about $400 million.
The sanctions may bite even harder at companies that sell chip-making equipment, which relied heavily in recent years on sales to Chinese factories.
Lam Research, which produces tools that etch silicon wafers to make chips, estimated that the China limitations would reduce its 2023 revenue by $2 billion to $2.5 billion. “We lost some very profitable customers in the China region, and that’s going to persist,” Doug Bettinger, Lam’s chief financial officer, said during an earnings call last week.
Applied Materials, the biggest maker of chip manufacturing tools, also said sales would suffer because of the restrictions. On Wednesday, another maker of chip manufacturing tools, KLA, said its revenue next year was likely to shrink by $600 million to $900 million as it reduces equipment sales and services to some customers in China"
If only China wasn't weaponizing all of this technology, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
The promise of the blockade of technology to China, is to prevent Xi from growing the economy at the expense of the West, which has already slowed due to COVID, and the collapsing real estate market, and to prevent the PLA from increasing the lethality of its weapons, especially through AI. These blockades may not work indefinitely, but they only need to be successful through the end of the decade for the West to prepare against an increasing militant China. It also means the China will have to increasingly spend more on R&D to keep up with the West.
Funny how authoritarians are so fond of taking hostages, for later negotiations, but either way, those hostages, the human rights violations, and the repression of Hong Kong turned the tide agains Huawei and China. Epic fuckup on Xi's part, as it Xi didn't want a more insular and self sufficient China anyway.
As for the whinging of the semi-conductor supply chain, it is temporary, and supply chain will only increase outside of China, buy you knew that.
As for the comment that I posted above, it provides a historical context. that you fuckers in the EU have been coasting on your National Defense spending, and always depend on the U.S. to come to the rescue when some aggressor, aka Russia decides to threaten or invade. More than that, the EU, as well as the rest of the world benefits from the U.S. Navy providing freedom of navigation that is the basis of global trade.
Now if we can just get the EU to stop trading democracy for exports, we might actually end up in a great place.
Well, the EU is also de-Americanising so don't expect much from that but then again, the entire industry is de-Americanising so you'll have to live with that.
Trump pulled the trigger but the bullet hasn't hit yet. Pointing a big finger at non-US companies and telling them 'you can't sell your products to other non-US companies without a US granted licence' is not the way you generate trust. The US is a technologically toxic market now.
The semiconductor industry isn't 'whinging' about it, it is worried about its future (which now depends more and more on government funding) because it can't sell to its largest market. It has seen share prices slashed, revenues severely impacted, R&D reduced, and worst of all, new competitors rising on the horizon in every area of the semi conductor supply chain.
It is far from a 'temporary' situation because those new competitors will be undercutting US technology in the long run.
It is estimated that the US lost 11 billion dollars in revenues from Huawei alone in the first year of sanctions. Think about it. That's just one company.
LOL.
You keep posting like you think that China is in a great position in this, and that the U.S.. It isn't, and even the EU is distancing itself from China, slowly but surely, and thanks to Russia, a partner of China, invading Ukraine, China is even worse off with the West. Then you have Iran, another partner of Russia, playing out a potential realignment to a secular government. Authoritarians just can't win anymore. Xi is literally reversing the progress that China made earlier.
As for the "billions" in losses of Huawei's revenue, sadly, Huawei is losing even worse than that, completely losing its one time, and short term, dominance in smartphones, even in China. But hey, China and Russia are still well regarded in the Global South, for now anyway.
Do you really think that China will be able to compete with the U.S. and its allies in semiconductors in the decade? They are literally 4 generations behind, and haven't the supply chain internally, so will have to develop that from scratch.
Do you think that the U.S. and the West aren't planning on competing head to head with China on 6G? They have learned their lessons too.
Oct 28 (Reuters) - Germany will press for China to open up its economic markets to European companies and will discuss human rights during a visit by Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Beijing next week, a government spokesperson said on Friday.
Germany's view of Beijing has changed in recent months but it is against "decoupling" from the Chinese economy, the spokesperson told a briefing.
Berlin is also still examining the potential Chinese takeover of the chip production of Dortmund-based company Elmos, which follows on the heels of Chinese attempts to buy a stake in a terminal in the port of Hamburg.
What is left out, making this graph grossly misleading, is the context of the value of the wafers at the leading edge. This is where TSMC, followed by Samsung, and less so, Intel reside. It should also be noted that most of the design for these nodes occurs in the U.S.
The EU will have difficulty introducing leading edge nodes if they are not a primary designer of the silicon that is fabbed.
China at 14.4% has a mere rounding error of "leading edge" capacity at an inefficient version of 7nm, and is blocked by the U.S. and its allies from obtaining the equipment and building the supply chain necessary to compete.
It anything, Apple has ridden the wave of TSMC success, while providing the bulk of its revenues to continue that.
Context?
How much of the world's wafer output corresponds to cutting edge nodes?
Less than 2%? And falling?
By your argument, sanctions on sales of advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology to China are of little concern...and yet, that is a real and significant imposition on China's growth, isn't it.
Fun facts;
California is set to surpass Germany as the world's fourth largest economy;
The concern is related to the damage the US is doing to its own industry. That is self harm.
US semi-conductor interests have taken a huge hit due to these unilateral extra-territorial sanctions.
In market value loss, the damage has been huge. In a more direct context the damage has also been huge. Lost revenues.
How is the industry supposed to move forward if it can't sell into its largest market? How is it supposed to generate funding for R&D?
Applied Research and NVIDIA will each take a $400mn hit in just one quarter.
And to make matters worse, the whole policy only serves to accelerate the inevitable. Chinese technological progress. Remember. No policymaker has ever mentioned 'stopping' China's progress. Simply slowing it down. Well, there is a short term and long term reading of that but the consensus is clear. China will get there.
Worse still, non-US interests have also been impacted because the rugs have been pulled out from under their feet. As a result, US technology is toxic to them and they are working to get it out of their products.
With the latest 'sanctions' it is actually worse because employees with US citizenship are probably going to lose their jobs at Chinese companies.
An executive at a Chinese semi-conductor company:
“Now we are not just trying to build up ‘US-free’ manufacturing lines but also de-Americanise the teams,” said the executive.
That's from a paywalled FT article.
Let's be clear, absolutely ALL semi-conductor companies want to do business with Chinese companies. Bar none.
Having to halt sales simply because their products contain a tiny amount of US technology has opened their eyes to extra-territorial interference. The same applies to government.
Everyone is reducing their dependence on US technology.
How does that look for US interests? Bread for today but hunger for tomorrow?
Then we have to deal with the completely crackpot ideas of some prominent US representatives. What you are about to read must have come from people who are literally detached from the real world.
They want Biden to interfere in Chinese sovereign activities on Chinese soil.
Read to believe! (and they are citing Bloomberg - yikes!)
"Dear President Biden,
We call on the administration to take immediate action to halt Huawei’s attempt to build the Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Company (PXW) semiconductor foundry. This Huawei-aligned foundry is designed to fatally undermine the U.S. strategy to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) bid to dominate global 5G markets and strengthen its intelligence and repression apparatus.
Bloomberg recently published evidence that Huawei began construction over seven months ago on a factory where PXW is expected to eventually mass produce chips as advanced as 14 nanometers and 7 nanometers. Almost all of these chips are expected to be sold to Huawei, and PXW reportedly has already ordered the advanced equipment necessary to build these chips. This would represent a dangerous leap in Chinese semiconductor manufacturing, as Chinese chipmakers have thus far only been able to produce 7-nanometer chips in limited quantities. With these new chips for its base stations, Huawei could resume its march towards 5G market dominance, and the CCP will advance its plan to control global telecommunications and extend its economic espionage and repression."
Not a word about 'national security' there. Just 5G dominance (commercial and technological interests). The espionage line is just more craziness.
LOL!
Uhm, "economic espionage and repression" are in fact valid National Security issues.
You are free to believe what you want, and for fuck sake, why would anyone want Huawei to "resume its march towards 5G market dominance".
Blackburn wants President Biden to step in and block delivery of any advanced equipment that has been ordered from the West for PXW. More to the point, why is anyone allowing advanced equipment sales to China at this point in time. I agree with that action. China is a threat to Taiwan.
According to Bloomberg sources, the Chinese tech conglomerate is now supporting a small startup ordering equipment for a semiconductor manufacturing plant. Purportedly, the new semiconductor plant, called Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Co. (known as PXW) and run by a former Huawei executive, will be built close to the Huawei headquarters as it is expected to be the plant’s biggest customer, buying “most, if not all, of its output.”
If successful, this would allow Huawei to regain its footing and begin producing devices in earnest again. However, it remains to be seen if PXW will violate U.S. trade sanctions in supplying Huawei, as that would limit what equipment can be purchased by the company. Moreover, it is reported that the company’s first products, expected in 2025, will be on 28-nanometer technology leaving the plant six or more generations behind.
Given the accusations and evidence against Huawei, it will be difficult for any company to affiliate with the denylisted organization. Some of the U.S. restrictions may extend to this new company and prevent PXW from getting off the ground. However, if not, it still sounds like Huawei will be comparatively stuck in the stone age of semiconductors for a little while.
China continues to be a threat to the West and the existing rules of order. That's on Xi and his play for absolute power in China.
Fucking Europeans. Schotz will probably allow China's COSCO to own a portion of port facilities, even though his ministers are telling him no. When will they learn...
Huawei already has 5G dominance. Where have you been? Even now, it leads the market and has already 'de-Americanised' its ICT 5G product stack. It is now simply building out capacity.
China has no recent history of direct meddling in sovereign states through military action. It considers Taiwan part of China but apart from that there is no outward threat that has been singled out to the rest of the world.
'Repression' has nothing to do with US national security.
Apart from US 'sanctions' the rest of the world is eager to sell its technology to China. Yes, ASML and all the US tech industry included. Let that sink in.
You say you don't know why anyone would want to sell advanced tech to China. You are in a very small minority. The CEO of ASML has said more than once that the US approach will not work. Weaponising technology, forcing breakage of international supply lines and forcing sovereign nations to follow US orders or else has been a wake up call to the tech world.
There is nothing anyone is doing with the foundry equipment at that new site that contravenes US sanctions. Do you think ASML et al would risk that?
However, that said, US EDA software makers have said that they would rather Chinese companies 'cracked' their software than see a Chinese rival emerge from the sanctions. Too late for that I'm afraid as that ball is already rolling too.
The request to Biden just goes to show how out of touch with reality those folks are. Try to imagine things the other way around?
It is crazy.
Huawei alone has invested in over 40 semiconductor companies with the aim of rejigging its supply lines (all of them in detriment to US semiconductor industries).
China’s ‘secret police stations’ in UK must be investigated, say MPs
London and Glasgow claimed to be among list of operations to target critics and dissidents
China has been doing this around the world for quite some time. Have to make sure the diaspora don't forget who their bosses are. More than that, the influence operations that China conducts.
You might want to post about that, with your first hand knowledge and alll.
Absolutely nothing to do with technology and my knowledge of China is far less than that of the US and I'm definitely not involved with the Chinese Police. LOL.
Stay on topic!
I never stated that you were involved with the Chinese police, but you have an affection for Huawei, and a defense of China's authoritarianism that is exceptional for AI posters. It blinds you to all of the harm that China has done, and will do, to the world, which is why I am a proponent of constraining China.
As I noted, the Western world is no longer enamored with China, and is resisting China's authoritarian impulse to change the current rules of order that have been the basis for an effective global economy since the end of WWII.
Perhaps if Huawei wasn't so closely linked with the CPC, I might give you more leeway in your views. Alas, China is Huawei, and Huawei is China.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
I have never defended authoritarian governments.
I know a lot about Huawei.
That knowledge allows me point out inaccuracies in what many people spout off about the company. Most of which are about as far from the truth as they can get, and you yourself have been found wanting over and over again.
The western world was never enamored with China in the first place. The western world as you put it and China are basically trading and investment partners. If anything the opposite of what you claim is true as China is pushing development and trading links with Africa and Latin America. The US started an ill thought out trade war with China, in part, to force China to do even more business with it.
If we put the focus on Huawei and the rest of the world, it's the same story. Watch the Huawei Connect 2022 video from this very month in Paris with members of all the big companies and EU parliament members in attendance to see what's happening here.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
That statement is factually incorrect, if not an outright lie on your part, and you know it's a lie, because you live in the West, where we have a nominal free press. That free press does not exist in China, so how would you verify anything that Huawei states? You can't
China has often been criticized for a lack of transparency, especially with regard to its economic and trade policies. While in many cases these criticisms are valid, it belies the fact that in other instances, China is remarkably open and transparent about its intentions and ambitions.
Such is the case with China’s “Opinion on Strengthening the United Front Work of the Private Economy in the New Era,” recently released by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (and further elaborated on by President Xi Jinping himself). This document tells us in no uncertain terms that Chinese private companies will be increasingly called upon to conduct their operations in tight coordination with governmental policy objectives and ideologies. The rest of the world should take note.
A Different Vision of “Private” Business
The 5,000 word “opinion” aims to ratchet-up the role and influence of the CCP within the private sector in order “to better focus the wisdom and strength of the private businesspeople on the goal and mission to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The objective is to establish a “united front” between business and government and facilitate the “enhancement of the party’s leadership over the private economy.” According to the plan, “private economic figures are to be more closely united around the party,” thereby achieving “a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee on political stand, political direction, political principles, and political roads.”
Contrast that with the free market;
All of this stands in stark contrast to long-accepted concepts of how private companies function in a free market. The overriding purpose of business, according to these traditional precepts, is to earn profits through the provision of value-added products and services, in response to marketplace signals and under the constraint of basic economic realities. Government ideology plays no role in that equation.
For the most part, Western governments only regulate private business, for a variety of reasons including National Security, but they are almost never directly involved in the operation of those businesses, and certainly not anything like the CPC is involved in businesses such as Huawei, which are part and parcel of their state security apparatus.
Ultimately, the current marketplace between the West and China has become distorted, and this coincides with Xi era of China rolling back freedoms enjoyed by the Chinese people. You seem to place the blame squarely on the West, when in fact, Xi's complete control of the Chinese government is an obvious issue in the West, as noted by the PEW poll that I posted earlier.
As for your statement that you do not defend authoritarian governments, I have seen a number of your previous statements in denial of China's human rights violations, posted here on Ai, even against overwhelming information that it is occurring, and documented by the same EU that you so strongly support otherwise.
More nonsense and not even on topic!
AT&T. Private company. 2017. Pressured out of a deal with Huawei.
No evidence ever presented. Should we be surprised?
And just to drive the message home to you:
"He recalled that GCHQ was rather unimpressed. The encounter revealed that the US case was primarily political rather than technical. So GCHQ stuck to their guns, as did the prime minister at first, Darroch explained."
Can I now say that AT&T and the UK government are now part of the US government because they changed their reasoned decisions?
The US fears that China will overtake it in the technology realm. That's it.
LOL.
You still are unable to understand the difference between companies in China and companies in the West; it's almost like you are in denial...
Sure, Western Governments shape policy, but they aren't involved in the day to day operation of businesses, nor are these businesses staffed with party members, and operated by party controlled union groups, as they are in China.
Presumably, you have worked in the West before, so you should be able to figure that out.
What is it with you and Huawei anyway? It seems an, unhealthy, attachment.
I'm in denial?
That's rich!
Look. You just veer off topic with the same anti China line over and over again. And now you imply I have some kind of issue? LOL.
There is nothing with 'me and Huawei'.
I just know a lot about the company (and Apple!) and its products. I try to comment on things I know about and stay away from stuff I'm not so knowledgeable of. Samsung could pop up somewhere here and you'll see nary a peep from me because I just don't know Samsung all that well.
As for 'shaping policy' , you seem to have brushed over my subtle point that it is the US that has been trying to shape the policy of sovereign nations for literally decades now and yes, via methods most foul too, but that has little to do with technology does it?
When it comes to the issue under discussion in this thread you literally have nothing to counter what I've pointed out because, by and large, what I have stated is fact, and largely supported by comments from the US administration itself. Especially when Trump was free to tweet his thoughts on an hourly basis.
You're gonna have to accept that.
The US is hellbent on slowing China down because future economic growth is going to be very technology related. Far more than it is now and the US is not well placed to keep pace with China. All its moves have been late and very poorly planned. Starting with 5G. It completely missed the boat.
Okay, keep going with that...
Don't let actual facts hit you in the backside...
Comparing china to THE global super power responsible likely for over half of the world's current population, due in part to the security of trade - allowing every nation to securely trade with each other. The result of which was the most peaceful period of the human race with more people lifted out of poverty than ever before. The sole power responsible for the information age.
Now come the chinese, a culture of which has never had a political regime last longer than 47 years, sans the current one which not only enslaves millions of their people because they're muslim, but harvests organs of prisoners --- prisoners whose only crime was practicing yoga.
At the end of WW2, the US could have owned the world. Instead, it allowed both friend and foe alike to rebuild themselves into the modern world we know today, not only funding the rebuilding, but opening up US markets for them to trade with. Look at JP, DE, and IT today.... Meanwhile look at the former soviet states -- they want nothing to do with russia.
Oh, and China's economy isn't growing like it had. Doesn't look like China will catch up or exceed the U.S., and its population will likely collapse over the next 40 years.
Well done!
You are now presenting comments from random internet posters to back up your off topic claims.
As recently as this week one of the biggest US semi-conductor associations (SIA) made an official statement on the CHIPS act and pushed for more of the outlay to go towards R&D, acknowledging that the semiconductor industry burns through funds like there is no tomorrow and the amounts earmarked for future development will be used up very quickly.
Of course, not being able to do good business with the number one market for its clients' products is hurting to the tune of billions. Then there is the fact that other (Chinese and non-Chinese) clients are actively working to eradicate US technology from supply chains and you get an idea of what the future of the US tech industry looks like.
Why do business with companies whose government has no issues weaponising their technology?
Surely even you can see that angle?
But just in case...
"That hurts semiconductor companies like Nvidia, which makes graphics chips used to run A.I. applications in China and elsewhere. The Silicon Valley company, already suffering from a sharp sales decline for video game applications, recently estimated that the U.S. restrictions would probably reduce revenues in its current quarter by about $400 million.
The sanctions may bite even harder at companies that sell chip-making equipment, which relied heavily in recent years on sales to Chinese factories.
Lam Research, which produces tools that etch silicon wafers to make chips, estimated that the China limitations would reduce its 2023 revenue by $2 billion to $2.5 billion. “We lost some very profitable customers in the China region, and that’s going to persist,” Doug Bettinger, Lam’s chief financial officer, said during an earnings call last week.
Applied Materials, the biggest maker of chip manufacturing tools, also said sales would suffer because of the restrictions. On Wednesday, another maker of chip manufacturing tools, KLA, said its revenue next year was likely to shrink by $600 million to $900 million as it reduces equipment sales and services to some customers in China"
If only China wasn't weaponizing all of this technology, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
The promise of the blockade of technology to China, is to prevent Xi from growing the economy at the expense of the West, which has already slowed due to COVID, and the collapsing real estate market, and to prevent the PLA from increasing the lethality of its weapons, especially through AI. These blockades may not work indefinitely, but they only need to be successful through the end of the decade for the West to prepare against an increasing militant China. It also means the China will have to increasingly spend more on R&D to keep up with the West.
Funny how authoritarians are so fond of taking hostages, for later negotiations, but either way, those hostages, the human rights violations, and the repression of Hong Kong turned the tide agains Huawei and China. Epic fuckup on Xi's part, as it Xi didn't want a more insular and self sufficient China anyway.
As for the whinging of the semi-conductor supply chain, it is temporary, and supply chain will only increase outside of China, buy you knew that.
As for the comment that I posted above, it provides a historical context. that you fuckers in the EU have been coasting on your National Defense spending, and always depend on the U.S. to come to the rescue when some aggressor, aka Russia decides to threaten or invade. More than that, the EU, as well as the rest of the world benefits from the U.S. Navy providing freedom of navigation that is the basis of global trade.
Now if we can just get the EU to stop trading democracy for exports, we might actually end up in a great place.
Well, the EU is also de-Americanising so don't expect much from that but then again, the entire industry is de-Americanising so you'll have to live with that.
Trump pulled the trigger but the bullet hasn't hit yet. Pointing a big finger at non-US companies and telling them 'you can't sell your products to other non-US companies without a US granted licence' is not the way you generate trust. The US is a technologically toxic market now.
The semiconductor industry isn't 'whinging' about it, it is worried about its future (which now depends more and more on government funding) because it can't sell to its largest market. It has seen share prices slashed, revenues severely impacted, R&D reduced, and worst of all, new competitors rising on the horizon in every area of the semi conductor supply chain.
It is far from a 'temporary' situation because those new competitors will be undercutting US technology in the long run.
It is estimated that the US lost 11 billion dollars in revenues from Huawei alone in the first year of sanctions. Think about it. That's just one company.
LOL.
You keep posting like you think that China is in a great position in this, and that the U.S.. It isn't, and even the EU is distancing itself from China, slowly but surely, and thanks to Russia, a partner of China, invading Ukraine, China is even worse off with the West. Then you have Iran, another partner of Russia, playing out a potential realignment to a secular government. Authoritarians just can't win anymore. Xi is literally reversing the progress that China made earlier.
As for the "billions" in losses of Huawei's revenue, sadly, Huawei is losing even worse than that, completely losing its one time, and short term, dominance in smartphones, even in China. But hey, China and Russia are still well regarded in the Global South, for now anyway.
Do you really think that China will be able to compete with the U.S. and its allies in semiconductors in the decade? They are literally 4 generations behind, and haven't the supply chain internally, so will have to develop that from scratch.
Do you think that the U.S. and the West aren't planning on competing head to head with China on 6G? They have learned their lessons too.
What percentage of world processor output is on cutting edge nodes?
Your 'four generations ahead' claim is ridiculous and meaningless when you take that into account.
I can tell you exactly where Huawei is going in the short term in processor terms: chip stacking.
They have developed a new - cheaper - chip stacking technology as a stop gap measure while the entire supply chain gets rejigged.
Where will China be after ten years of semiconductor self sufficiency efforts? That is impossible to know. However, they will be far closer to their goals than had the US not tried to destroy the global semiconductor supply chain. That is a given. It is also a given that in ten years there will be less US semiconductor influence worldwide because companies are already looking for ways to erradicate US choke points!
6G? That is at least 8 years away and Huawei is actively developing for it. In fact, the US has already had to backtrack on its Huawei sanctions just to be able to get a seat at standards meetings! Such great planning, eh?
Before that, we will see 5.5G and the US will not have much influence there either. Huawei has already resolved the current 5G choke point on 5G ICT equipment.
And the west will not 'compete' with China on 6G. 6G will be a standard! Lots of players will be involved in agreeing that standard. Chinese players included.
What is left out, making this graph grossly misleading, is the context of the value of the wafers at the leading edge. This is where TSMC, followed by Samsung, and less so, Intel reside. It should also be noted that most of the design for these nodes occurs in the U.S.
The EU will have difficulty introducing leading edge nodes if they are not a primary designer of the silicon that is fabbed.
China at 14.4% has a mere rounding error of "leading edge" capacity at an inefficient version of 7nm, and is blocked by the U.S. and its allies from obtaining the equipment and building the supply chain necessary to compete.
It anything, Apple has ridden the wave of TSMC success, while providing the bulk of its revenues to continue that.
Context?
How much of the world's wafer output corresponds to cutting edge nodes?
Less than 2%? And falling?
By your argument, sanctions on sales of advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology to China are of little concern...and yet, that is a real and significant imposition on China's growth, isn't it.
Fun facts;
California is set to surpass Germany as the world's fourth largest economy;
The concern is related to the damage the US is doing to its own industry. That is self harm.
US semi-conductor interests have taken a huge hit due to these unilateral extra-territorial sanctions.
In market value loss, the damage has been huge. In a more direct context the damage has also been huge. Lost revenues.
How is the industry supposed to move forward if it can't sell into its largest market? How is it supposed to generate funding for R&D?
Applied Research and NVIDIA will each take a $400mn hit in just one quarter.
And to make matters worse, the whole policy only serves to accelerate the inevitable. Chinese technological progress. Remember. No policymaker has ever mentioned 'stopping' China's progress. Simply slowing it down. Well, there is a short term and long term reading of that but the consensus is clear. China will get there.
Worse still, non-US interests have also been impacted because the rugs have been pulled out from under their feet. As a result, US technology is toxic to them and they are working to get it out of their products.
With the latest 'sanctions' it is actually worse because employees with US citizenship are probably going to lose their jobs at Chinese companies.
An executive at a Chinese semi-conductor company:
“Now we are not just trying to build up ‘US-free’ manufacturing lines but also de-Americanise the teams,” said the executive.
That's from a paywalled FT article.
Let's be clear, absolutely ALL semi-conductor companies want to do business with Chinese companies. Bar none.
Having to halt sales simply because their products contain a tiny amount of US technology has opened their eyes to extra-territorial interference. The same applies to government.
Everyone is reducing their dependence on US technology.
How does that look for US interests? Bread for today but hunger for tomorrow?
Then we have to deal with the completely crackpot ideas of some prominent US representatives. What you are about to read must have come from people who are literally detached from the real world.
They want Biden to interfere in Chinese sovereign activities on Chinese soil.
Read to believe! (and they are citing Bloomberg - yikes!)
"Dear President Biden,
We call on the administration to take immediate action to halt Huawei’s attempt to build the Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Company (PXW) semiconductor foundry. This Huawei-aligned foundry is designed to fatally undermine the U.S. strategy to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) bid to dominate global 5G markets and strengthen its intelligence and repression apparatus.
Bloomberg recently published evidence that Huawei began construction over seven months ago on a factory where PXW is expected to eventually mass produce chips as advanced as 14 nanometers and 7 nanometers. Almost all of these chips are expected to be sold to Huawei, and PXW reportedly has already ordered the advanced equipment necessary to build these chips. This would represent a dangerous leap in Chinese semiconductor manufacturing, as Chinese chipmakers have thus far only been able to produce 7-nanometer chips in limited quantities. With these new chips for its base stations, Huawei could resume its march towards 5G market dominance, and the CCP will advance its plan to control global telecommunications and extend its economic espionage and repression."
Not a word about 'national security' there. Just 5G dominance (commercial and technological interests). The espionage line is just more craziness.
LOL!
Uhm, "economic espionage and repression" are in fact valid National Security issues.
You are free to believe what you want, and for fuck sake, why would anyone want Huawei to "resume its march towards 5G market dominance".
Blackburn wants President Biden to step in and block delivery of any advanced equipment that has been ordered from the West for PXW. More to the point, why is anyone allowing advanced equipment sales to China at this point in time. I agree with that action. China is a threat to Taiwan.
According to Bloomberg sources, the Chinese tech conglomerate is now supporting a small startup ordering equipment for a semiconductor manufacturing plant. Purportedly, the new semiconductor plant, called Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Co. (known as PXW) and run by a former Huawei executive, will be built close to the Huawei headquarters as it is expected to be the plant’s biggest customer, buying “most, if not all, of its output.”
If successful, this would allow Huawei to regain its footing and begin producing devices in earnest again. However, it remains to be seen if PXW will violate U.S. trade sanctions in supplying Huawei, as that would limit what equipment can be purchased by the company. Moreover, it is reported that the company’s first products, expected in 2025, will be on 28-nanometer technology leaving the plant six or more generations behind.
Given the accusations and evidence against Huawei, it will be difficult for any company to affiliate with the denylisted organization. Some of the U.S. restrictions may extend to this new company and prevent PXW from getting off the ground. However, if not, it still sounds like Huawei will be comparatively stuck in the stone age of semiconductors for a little while.
China continues to be a threat to the West and the existing rules of order. That's on Xi and his play for absolute power in China.
Fucking Europeans. Schotz will probably allow China's COSCO to own a portion of port facilities, even though his ministers are telling him no. When will they learn...
Huawei already has 5G dominance. Where have you been? Even now, it leads the market and has already 'de-Americanised' its ICT 5G product stack. It is now simply building out capacity.
China has no recent history of direct meddling in sovereign states through military action. It considers Taiwan part of China but apart from that there is no outward threat that has been singled out to the rest of the world.
'Repression' has nothing to do with US national security.
Apart from US 'sanctions' the rest of the world is eager to sell its technology to China. Yes, ASML and all the US tech industry included. Let that sink in.
You say you don't know why anyone would want to sell advanced tech to China. You are in a very small minority. The CEO of ASML has said more than once that the US approach will not work. Weaponising technology, forcing breakage of international supply lines and forcing sovereign nations to follow US orders or else has been a wake up call to the tech world.
There is nothing anyone is doing with the foundry equipment at that new site that contravenes US sanctions. Do you think ASML et al would risk that?
However, that said, US EDA software makers have said that they would rather Chinese companies 'cracked' their software than see a Chinese rival emerge from the sanctions. Too late for that I'm afraid as that ball is already rolling too.
The request to Biden just goes to show how out of touch with reality those folks are. Try to imagine things the other way around?
It is crazy.
Huawei alone has invested in over 40 semiconductor companies with the aim of rejigging its supply lines (all of them in detriment to US semiconductor industries).
China’s ‘secret police stations’ in UK must be investigated, say MPs
London and Glasgow claimed to be among list of operations to target critics and dissidents
China has been doing this around the world for quite some time. Have to make sure the diaspora don't forget who their bosses are. More than that, the influence operations that China conducts.
You might want to post about that, with your first hand knowledge and alll.
Absolutely nothing to do with technology and my knowledge of China is far less than that of the US and I'm definitely not involved with the Chinese Police. LOL.
Stay on topic!
I never stated that you were involved with the Chinese police, but you have an affection for Huawei, and a defense of China's authoritarianism that is exceptional for AI posters. It blinds you to all of the harm that China has done, and will do, to the world, which is why I am a proponent of constraining China.
As I noted, the Western world is no longer enamored with China, and is resisting China's authoritarian impulse to change the current rules of order that have been the basis for an effective global economy since the end of WWII.
Perhaps if Huawei wasn't so closely linked with the CPC, I might give you more leeway in your views. Alas, China is Huawei, and Huawei is China.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
I have never defended authoritarian governments.
I know a lot about Huawei.
That knowledge allows me point out inaccuracies in what many people spout off about the company. Most of which are about as far from the truth as they can get, and you yourself have been found wanting over and over again.
The western world was never enamored with China in the first place. The western world as you put it and China are basically trading and investment partners. If anything the opposite of what you claim is true as China is pushing development and trading links with Africa and Latin America. The US started an ill thought out trade war with China, in part, to force China to do even more business with it.
If we put the focus on Huawei and the rest of the world, it's the same story. Watch the Huawei Connect 2022 video from this very month in Paris with members of all the big companies and EU parliament members in attendance to see what's happening here.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
That statement is factually incorrect, if not an outright lie on your part, and you know it's a lie, because you live in the West, where we have a nominal free press. That free press does not exist in China, so how would you verify anything that Huawei states? You can't
China has often been criticized for a lack of transparency, especially with regard to its economic and trade policies. While in many cases these criticisms are valid, it belies the fact that in other instances, China is remarkably open and transparent about its intentions and ambitions.
Such is the case with China’s “Opinion on Strengthening the United Front Work of the Private Economy in the New Era,” recently released by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (and further elaborated on by President Xi Jinping himself). This document tells us in no uncertain terms that Chinese private companies will be increasingly called upon to conduct their operations in tight coordination with governmental policy objectives and ideologies. The rest of the world should take note.
A Different Vision of “Private” Business
The 5,000 word “opinion” aims to ratchet-up the role and influence of the CCP within the private sector in order “to better focus the wisdom and strength of the private businesspeople on the goal and mission to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The objective is to establish a “united front” between business and government and facilitate the “enhancement of the party’s leadership over the private economy.” According to the plan, “private economic figures are to be more closely united around the party,” thereby achieving “a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee on political stand, political direction, political principles, and political roads.”
Contrast that with the free market;
All of this stands in stark contrast to long-accepted concepts of how private companies function in a free market. The overriding purpose of business, according to these traditional precepts, is to earn profits through the provision of value-added products and services, in response to marketplace signals and under the constraint of basic economic realities. Government ideology plays no role in that equation.
For the most part, Western governments only regulate private business, for a variety of reasons including National Security, but they are almost never directly involved in the operation of those businesses, and certainly not anything like the CPC is involved in businesses such as Huawei, which are part and parcel of their state security apparatus.
Ultimately, the current marketplace between the West and China has become distorted, and this coincides with Xi era of China rolling back freedoms enjoyed by the Chinese people. You seem to place the blame squarely on the West, when in fact, Xi's complete control of the Chinese government is an obvious issue in the West, as noted by the PEW poll that I posted earlier.
As for your statement that you do not defend authoritarian governments, I have seen a number of your previous statements in denial of China's human rights violations, posted here on Ai, even against overwhelming information that it is occurring, and documented by the same EU that you so strongly support otherwise.
More nonsense and not even on topic!
AT&T. Private company. 2017. Pressured out of a deal with Huawei.
No evidence ever presented. Should we be surprised?
And just to drive the message home to you:
"He recalled that GCHQ was rather unimpressed. The encounter revealed that the US case was primarily political rather than technical. So GCHQ stuck to their guns, as did the prime minister at first, Darroch explained."
Can I now say that AT&T and the UK government are now part of the US government because they changed their reasoned decisions?
The US fears that China will overtake it in the technology realm. That's it.
LOL.
You still are unable to understand the difference between companies in China and companies in the West; it's almost like you are in denial...
Sure, Western Governments shape policy, but they aren't involved in the day to day operation of businesses, nor are these businesses staffed with party members, and operated by party controlled union groups, as they are in China.
Presumably, you have worked in the West before, so you should be able to figure that out.
What is it with you and Huawei anyway? It seems an, unhealthy, attachment.
I'm in denial?
That's rich!
Look. You just veer off topic with the same anti China line over and over again. And now you imply I have some kind of issue? LOL.
There is nothing with 'me and Huawei'.
I just know a lot about the company (and Apple!) and its products. I try to comment on things I know about and stay away from stuff I'm not so knowledgeable of. Samsung could pop up somewhere here and you'll see nary a peep from me because I just don't know Samsung all that well.
As for 'shaping policy' , you seem to have brushed over my subtle point that it is the US that has been trying to shape the policy of sovereign nations for literally decades now and yes, via methods most foul too, but that has little to do with technology does it?
When it comes to the issue under discussion in this thread you literally have nothing to counter what I've pointed out because, by and large, what I have stated is fact, and largely supported by comments from the US administration itself. Especially when Trump was free to tweet his thoughts on an hourly basis.
You're gonna have to accept that.
The US is hellbent on slowing China down because future economic growth is going to be very technology related. Far more than it is now and the US is not well placed to keep pace with China. All its moves have been late and very poorly planned. Starting with 5G. It completely missed the boat.
Okay, keep going with that...
Don't let actual facts hit you in the backside...
Comparing china to THE global super power responsible likely for over half of the world's current population, due in part to the security of trade - allowing every nation to securely trade with each other. The result of which was the most peaceful period of the human race with more people lifted out of poverty than ever before. The sole power responsible for the information age.
Now come the chinese, a culture of which has never had a political regime last longer than 47 years, sans the current one which not only enslaves millions of their people because they're muslim, but harvests organs of prisoners --- prisoners whose only crime was practicing yoga.
At the end of WW2, the US could have owned the world. Instead, it allowed both friend and foe alike to rebuild themselves into the modern world we know today, not only funding the rebuilding, but opening up US markets for them to trade with. Look at JP, DE, and IT today.... Meanwhile look at the former soviet states -- they want nothing to do with russia.
Oh, and China's economy isn't growing like it had. Doesn't look like China will catch up or exceed the U.S., and its population will likely collapse over the next 40 years.
Well done!
You are now presenting comments from random internet posters to back up your off topic claims.
As recently as this week one of the biggest US semi-conductor associations (SIA) made an official statement on the CHIPS act and pushed for more of the outlay to go towards R&D, acknowledging that the semiconductor industry burns through funds like there is no tomorrow and the amounts earmarked for future development will be used up very quickly.
Of course, not being able to do good business with the number one market for its clients' products is hurting to the tune of billions. Then there is the fact that other (Chinese and non-Chinese) clients are actively working to eradicate US technology from supply chains and you get an idea of what the future of the US tech industry looks like.
Why do business with companies whose government has no issues weaponising their technology?
Surely even you can see that angle?
But just in case...
"That hurts semiconductor companies like Nvidia, which makes graphics chips used to run A.I. applications in China and elsewhere. The Silicon Valley company, already suffering from a sharp sales decline for video game applications, recently estimated that the U.S. restrictions would probably reduce revenues in its current quarter by about $400 million.
The sanctions may bite even harder at companies that sell chip-making equipment, which relied heavily in recent years on sales to Chinese factories.
Lam Research, which produces tools that etch silicon wafers to make chips, estimated that the China limitations would reduce its 2023 revenue by $2 billion to $2.5 billion. “We lost some very profitable customers in the China region, and that’s going to persist,” Doug Bettinger, Lam’s chief financial officer, said during an earnings call last week.
Applied Materials, the biggest maker of chip manufacturing tools, also said sales would suffer because of the restrictions. On Wednesday, another maker of chip manufacturing tools, KLA, said its revenue next year was likely to shrink by $600 million to $900 million as it reduces equipment sales and services to some customers in China"
If only China wasn't weaponizing all of this technology, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
The promise of the blockade of technology to China, is to prevent Xi from growing the economy at the expense of the West, which has already slowed due to COVID, and the collapsing real estate market, and to prevent the PLA from increasing the lethality of its weapons, especially through AI. These blockades may not work indefinitely, but they only need to be successful through the end of the decade for the West to prepare against an increasing militant China. It also means the China will have to increasingly spend more on R&D to keep up with the West.
Funny how authoritarians are so fond of taking hostages, for later negotiations, but either way, those hostages, the human rights violations, and the repression of Hong Kong turned the tide agains Huawei and China. Epic fuckup on Xi's part, as it Xi didn't want a more insular and self sufficient China anyway.
As for the whinging of the semi-conductor supply chain, it is temporary, and supply chain will only increase outside of China, buy you knew that.
As for the comment that I posted above, it provides a historical context. that you fuckers in the EU have been coasting on your National Defense spending, and always depend on the U.S. to come to the rescue when some aggressor, aka Russia decides to threaten or invade. More than that, the EU, as well as the rest of the world benefits from the U.S. Navy providing freedom of navigation that is the basis of global trade.
Now if we can just get the EU to stop trading democracy for exports, we might actually end up in a great place.
Well, the EU is also de-Americanising so don't expect much from that but then again, the entire industry is de-Americanising so you'll have to live with that.
Trump pulled the trigger but the bullet hasn't hit yet. Pointing a big finger at non-US companies and telling them 'you can't sell your products to other non-US companies without a US granted licence' is not the way you generate trust. The US is a technologically toxic market now.
The semiconductor industry isn't 'whinging' about it, it is worried about its future (which now depends more and more on government funding) because it can't sell to its largest market. It has seen share prices slashed, revenues severely impacted, R&D reduced, and worst of all, new competitors rising on the horizon in every area of the semi conductor supply chain.
It is far from a 'temporary' situation because those new competitors will be undercutting US technology in the long run.
It is estimated that the US lost 11 billion dollars in revenues from Huawei alone in the first year of sanctions. Think about it. That's just one company.
LOL.
You keep posting like you think that China is in a great position in this, and that the U.S.. It isn't, and even the EU is distancing itself from China, slowly but surely, and thanks to Russia, a partner of China, invading Ukraine, China is even worse off with the West. Then you have Iran, another partner of Russia, playing out a potential realignment to a secular government. Authoritarians just can't win anymore. Xi is literally reversing the progress that China made earlier.
As for the "billions" in losses of Huawei's revenue, sadly, Huawei is losing even worse than that, completely losing its one time, and short term, dominance in smartphones, even in China. But hey, China and Russia are still well regarded in the Global South, for now anyway.
Do you really think that China will be able to compete with the U.S. and its allies in semiconductors in the decade? They are literally 4 generations behind, and haven't the supply chain internally, so will have to develop that from scratch.
Do you think that the U.S. and the West aren't planning on competing head to head with China on 6G? They have learned their lessons too.
What percentage of world processor output is on cutting edge nodes?
Your 'four generations ahead' claim is ridiculous and meaningless when you take that into account.
I can tell you exactly where Huawei is going in the short term in processor terms: chip stacking.
They have developed a new - cheaper - chip stacking technology as a stop gap measure while the entire supply chain gets rejigged.
Where will China be after ten years of semiconductor self sufficiency efforts? That is impossible to know. However, they will be far closer to their goals than had the US not tried to destroy the global semiconductor supply chain. That is a given. It is also a given that in ten years there will be less US semiconductor influence worldwide because companies are already looking for ways to erradicate US choke points!
6G? That is at least 8 years away and Huawei is actively developing for it. In fact, the US has already had to backtrack on its Huawei sanctions just to be able to get a seat at standards meetings! Such great planning, eh?
Before that, we will see 5.5G and the US will not have much influence there either. Huawei has already resolved the current 5G choke point on 5G ICT equipment.
And the west will not 'compete' with China on 6G. 6G will be a standard! Lots of players will be involved in agreeing that standard. Chinese players included.
LOL.
You are still in denial. If the U.S. blockage of leading edge technology wasn't a big deal, then surely Huawei would have retained its marketshare in phones. They literally had their phone business destroyed. You can't even accept that. But by all means, China should develop its own alternatives, just as the West should develop alternatives to Huawei and ZTE.
As for Huawei, if there is one thing that the world is learning from Russia's invasion, and from China's threats to Taiwan, relying on critical resources or infrastructure from your adversaries is fraught with risk.
I restate. If China wasn't the threat that it is to the existing rules of order, you and I wouldn't be having this conversation. That's on them.
Can we allow our 5G critical infrastructure to be built with technology provided by a company that is private on paper but ultimately answerable to the Chinese communist party state?” would resonate with the German public once asked forcefully.
Yeah, why aren't you advocating for the EU to have more skin in the game and build their own telecom technological base?
Crickets...
Then this;
Germany and China's COSCO
The investment "disproportionately expands China's strategic influence on German and European transport infrastructure as well as Germany's dependence on China", the document, seen by Reuters, says. It points to "considerable risks that arise when elements of the European transport infrastructure are influenced and controlled by China - while China itself does not allow Germany to participate in Chinese ports".
In the event of a crisis, the acquisition would open up the possibility for China to politically instrumentalise part of Germany's as well as Europe's critical infrastructure, it says. The economy ministry and the four ministries led by the liberal Free Democrats joined in drawing up the note, according to the sources.
‘Cosco proudly points out that there is a political commissar on each of his ships & 83% of employees working abroad are party members. The 'red engine' is a competitive advantage.
What is left out, making this graph grossly misleading, is the context of the value of the wafers at the leading edge. This is where TSMC, followed by Samsung, and less so, Intel reside. It should also be noted that most of the design for these nodes occurs in the U.S.
The EU will have difficulty introducing leading edge nodes if they are not a primary designer of the silicon that is fabbed.
China at 14.4% has a mere rounding error of "leading edge" capacity at an inefficient version of 7nm, and is blocked by the U.S. and its allies from obtaining the equipment and building the supply chain necessary to compete.
It anything, Apple has ridden the wave of TSMC success, while providing the bulk of its revenues to continue that.
Context?
How much of the world's wafer output corresponds to cutting edge nodes?
Less than 2%? And falling?
By your argument, sanctions on sales of advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology to China are of little concern...and yet, that is a real and significant imposition on China's growth, isn't it.
Fun facts;
California is set to surpass Germany as the world's fourth largest economy;
The concern is related to the damage the US is doing to its own industry. That is self harm.
US semi-conductor interests have taken a huge hit due to these unilateral extra-territorial sanctions.
In market value loss, the damage has been huge. In a more direct context the damage has also been huge. Lost revenues.
How is the industry supposed to move forward if it can't sell into its largest market? How is it supposed to generate funding for R&D?
Applied Research and NVIDIA will each take a $400mn hit in just one quarter.
And to make matters worse, the whole policy only serves to accelerate the inevitable. Chinese technological progress. Remember. No policymaker has ever mentioned 'stopping' China's progress. Simply slowing it down. Well, there is a short term and long term reading of that but the consensus is clear. China will get there.
Worse still, non-US interests have also been impacted because the rugs have been pulled out from under their feet. As a result, US technology is toxic to them and they are working to get it out of their products.
With the latest 'sanctions' it is actually worse because employees with US citizenship are probably going to lose their jobs at Chinese companies.
An executive at a Chinese semi-conductor company:
“Now we are not just trying to build up ‘US-free’ manufacturing lines but also de-Americanise the teams,” said the executive.
That's from a paywalled FT article.
Let's be clear, absolutely ALL semi-conductor companies want to do business with Chinese companies. Bar none.
Having to halt sales simply because their products contain a tiny amount of US technology has opened their eyes to extra-territorial interference. The same applies to government.
Everyone is reducing their dependence on US technology.
How does that look for US interests? Bread for today but hunger for tomorrow?
Then we have to deal with the completely crackpot ideas of some prominent US representatives. What you are about to read must have come from people who are literally detached from the real world.
They want Biden to interfere in Chinese sovereign activities on Chinese soil.
Read to believe! (and they are citing Bloomberg - yikes!)
"Dear President Biden,
We call on the administration to take immediate action to halt Huawei’s attempt to build the Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Company (PXW) semiconductor foundry. This Huawei-aligned foundry is designed to fatally undermine the U.S. strategy to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) bid to dominate global 5G markets and strengthen its intelligence and repression apparatus.
Bloomberg recently published evidence that Huawei began construction over seven months ago on a factory where PXW is expected to eventually mass produce chips as advanced as 14 nanometers and 7 nanometers. Almost all of these chips are expected to be sold to Huawei, and PXW reportedly has already ordered the advanced equipment necessary to build these chips. This would represent a dangerous leap in Chinese semiconductor manufacturing, as Chinese chipmakers have thus far only been able to produce 7-nanometer chips in limited quantities. With these new chips for its base stations, Huawei could resume its march towards 5G market dominance, and the CCP will advance its plan to control global telecommunications and extend its economic espionage and repression."
Not a word about 'national security' there. Just 5G dominance (commercial and technological interests). The espionage line is just more craziness.
LOL!
Uhm, "economic espionage and repression" are in fact valid National Security issues.
You are free to believe what you want, and for fuck sake, why would anyone want Huawei to "resume its march towards 5G market dominance".
Blackburn wants President Biden to step in and block delivery of any advanced equipment that has been ordered from the West for PXW. More to the point, why is anyone allowing advanced equipment sales to China at this point in time. I agree with that action. China is a threat to Taiwan.
According to Bloomberg sources, the Chinese tech conglomerate is now supporting a small startup ordering equipment for a semiconductor manufacturing plant. Purportedly, the new semiconductor plant, called Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Co. (known as PXW) and run by a former Huawei executive, will be built close to the Huawei headquarters as it is expected to be the plant’s biggest customer, buying “most, if not all, of its output.”
If successful, this would allow Huawei to regain its footing and begin producing devices in earnest again. However, it remains to be seen if PXW will violate U.S. trade sanctions in supplying Huawei, as that would limit what equipment can be purchased by the company. Moreover, it is reported that the company’s first products, expected in 2025, will be on 28-nanometer technology leaving the plant six or more generations behind.
Given the accusations and evidence against Huawei, it will be difficult for any company to affiliate with the denylisted organization. Some of the U.S. restrictions may extend to this new company and prevent PXW from getting off the ground. However, if not, it still sounds like Huawei will be comparatively stuck in the stone age of semiconductors for a little while.
China continues to be a threat to the West and the existing rules of order. That's on Xi and his play for absolute power in China.
Fucking Europeans. Schotz will probably allow China's COSCO to own a portion of port facilities, even though his ministers are telling him no. When will they learn...
Huawei already has 5G dominance. Where have you been? Even now, it leads the market and has already 'de-Americanised' its ICT 5G product stack. It is now simply building out capacity.
China has no recent history of direct meddling in sovereign states through military action. It considers Taiwan part of China but apart from that there is no outward threat that has been singled out to the rest of the world.
'Repression' has nothing to do with US national security.
Apart from US 'sanctions' the rest of the world is eager to sell its technology to China. Yes, ASML and all the US tech industry included. Let that sink in.
You say you don't know why anyone would want to sell advanced tech to China. You are in a very small minority. The CEO of ASML has said more than once that the US approach will not work. Weaponising technology, forcing breakage of international supply lines and forcing sovereign nations to follow US orders or else has been a wake up call to the tech world.
There is nothing anyone is doing with the foundry equipment at that new site that contravenes US sanctions. Do you think ASML et al would risk that?
However, that said, US EDA software makers have said that they would rather Chinese companies 'cracked' their software than see a Chinese rival emerge from the sanctions. Too late for that I'm afraid as that ball is already rolling too.
The request to Biden just goes to show how out of touch with reality those folks are. Try to imagine things the other way around?
It is crazy.
Huawei alone has invested in over 40 semiconductor companies with the aim of rejigging its supply lines (all of them in detriment to US semiconductor industries).
China’s ‘secret police stations’ in UK must be investigated, say MPs
London and Glasgow claimed to be among list of operations to target critics and dissidents
China has been doing this around the world for quite some time. Have to make sure the diaspora don't forget who their bosses are. More than that, the influence operations that China conducts.
You might want to post about that, with your first hand knowledge and alll.
Absolutely nothing to do with technology and my knowledge of China is far less than that of the US and I'm definitely not involved with the Chinese Police. LOL.
Stay on topic!
I never stated that you were involved with the Chinese police, but you have an affection for Huawei, and a defense of China's authoritarianism that is exceptional for AI posters. It blinds you to all of the harm that China has done, and will do, to the world, which is why I am a proponent of constraining China.
As I noted, the Western world is no longer enamored with China, and is resisting China's authoritarian impulse to change the current rules of order that have been the basis for an effective global economy since the end of WWII.
Perhaps if Huawei wasn't so closely linked with the CPC, I might give you more leeway in your views. Alas, China is Huawei, and Huawei is China.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
I have never defended authoritarian governments.
I know a lot about Huawei.
That knowledge allows me point out inaccuracies in what many people spout off about the company. Most of which are about as far from the truth as they can get, and you yourself have been found wanting over and over again.
The western world was never enamored with China in the first place. The western world as you put it and China are basically trading and investment partners. If anything the opposite of what you claim is true as China is pushing development and trading links with Africa and Latin America. The US started an ill thought out trade war with China, in part, to force China to do even more business with it.
If we put the focus on Huawei and the rest of the world, it's the same story. Watch the Huawei Connect 2022 video from this very month in Paris with members of all the big companies and EU parliament members in attendance to see what's happening here.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
That statement is factually incorrect, if not an outright lie on your part, and you know it's a lie, because you live in the West, where we have a nominal free press. That free press does not exist in China, so how would you verify anything that Huawei states? You can't
China has often been criticized for a lack of transparency, especially with regard to its economic and trade policies. While in many cases these criticisms are valid, it belies the fact that in other instances, China is remarkably open and transparent about its intentions and ambitions.
Such is the case with China’s “Opinion on Strengthening the United Front Work of the Private Economy in the New Era,” recently released by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (and further elaborated on by President Xi Jinping himself). This document tells us in no uncertain terms that Chinese private companies will be increasingly called upon to conduct their operations in tight coordination with governmental policy objectives and ideologies. The rest of the world should take note.
A Different Vision of “Private” Business
The 5,000 word “opinion” aims to ratchet-up the role and influence of the CCP within the private sector in order “to better focus the wisdom and strength of the private businesspeople on the goal and mission to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The objective is to establish a “united front” between business and government and facilitate the “enhancement of the party’s leadership over the private economy.” According to the plan, “private economic figures are to be more closely united around the party,” thereby achieving “a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee on political stand, political direction, political principles, and political roads.”
Contrast that with the free market;
All of this stands in stark contrast to long-accepted concepts of how private companies function in a free market. The overriding purpose of business, according to these traditional precepts, is to earn profits through the provision of value-added products and services, in response to marketplace signals and under the constraint of basic economic realities. Government ideology plays no role in that equation.
For the most part, Western governments only regulate private business, for a variety of reasons including National Security, but they are almost never directly involved in the operation of those businesses, and certainly not anything like the CPC is involved in businesses such as Huawei, which are part and parcel of their state security apparatus.
Ultimately, the current marketplace between the West and China has become distorted, and this coincides with Xi era of China rolling back freedoms enjoyed by the Chinese people. You seem to place the blame squarely on the West, when in fact, Xi's complete control of the Chinese government is an obvious issue in the West, as noted by the PEW poll that I posted earlier.
As for your statement that you do not defend authoritarian governments, I have seen a number of your previous statements in denial of China's human rights violations, posted here on Ai, even against overwhelming information that it is occurring, and documented by the same EU that you so strongly support otherwise.
More nonsense and not even on topic!
AT&T. Private company. 2017. Pressured out of a deal with Huawei.
No evidence ever presented. Should we be surprised?
And just to drive the message home to you:
"He recalled that GCHQ was rather unimpressed. The encounter revealed that the US case was primarily political rather than technical. So GCHQ stuck to their guns, as did the prime minister at first, Darroch explained."
Can I now say that AT&T and the UK government are now part of the US government because they changed their reasoned decisions?
The US fears that China will overtake it in the technology realm. That's it.
LOL.
You still are unable to understand the difference between companies in China and companies in the West; it's almost like you are in denial...
Sure, Western Governments shape policy, but they aren't involved in the day to day operation of businesses, nor are these businesses staffed with party members, and operated by party controlled union groups, as they are in China.
Presumably, you have worked in the West before, so you should be able to figure that out.
What is it with you and Huawei anyway? It seems an, unhealthy, attachment.
I'm in denial?
That's rich!
Look. You just veer off topic with the same anti China line over and over again. And now you imply I have some kind of issue? LOL.
There is nothing with 'me and Huawei'.
I just know a lot about the company (and Apple!) and its products. I try to comment on things I know about and stay away from stuff I'm not so knowledgeable of. Samsung could pop up somewhere here and you'll see nary a peep from me because I just don't know Samsung all that well.
As for 'shaping policy' , you seem to have brushed over my subtle point that it is the US that has been trying to shape the policy of sovereign nations for literally decades now and yes, via methods most foul too, but that has little to do with technology does it?
When it comes to the issue under discussion in this thread you literally have nothing to counter what I've pointed out because, by and large, what I have stated is fact, and largely supported by comments from the US administration itself. Especially when Trump was free to tweet his thoughts on an hourly basis.
You're gonna have to accept that.
The US is hellbent on slowing China down because future economic growth is going to be very technology related. Far more than it is now and the US is not well placed to keep pace with China. All its moves have been late and very poorly planned. Starting with 5G. It completely missed the boat.
Okay, keep going with that...
Don't let actual facts hit you in the backside...
Comparing china to THE global super power responsible likely for over half of the world's current population, due in part to the security of trade - allowing every nation to securely trade with each other. The result of which was the most peaceful period of the human race with more people lifted out of poverty than ever before. The sole power responsible for the information age.
Now come the chinese, a culture of which has never had a political regime last longer than 47 years, sans the current one which not only enslaves millions of their people because they're muslim, but harvests organs of prisoners --- prisoners whose only crime was practicing yoga.
At the end of WW2, the US could have owned the world. Instead, it allowed both friend and foe alike to rebuild themselves into the modern world we know today, not only funding the rebuilding, but opening up US markets for them to trade with. Look at JP, DE, and IT today.... Meanwhile look at the former soviet states -- they want nothing to do with russia.
Oh, and China's economy isn't growing like it had. Doesn't look like China will catch up or exceed the U.S., and its population will likely collapse over the next 40 years.
Well done!
You are now presenting comments from random internet posters to back up your off topic claims.
As recently as this week one of the biggest US semi-conductor associations (SIA) made an official statement on the CHIPS act and pushed for more of the outlay to go towards R&D, acknowledging that the semiconductor industry burns through funds like there is no tomorrow and the amounts earmarked for future development will be used up very quickly.
Of course, not being able to do good business with the number one market for its clients' products is hurting to the tune of billions. Then there is the fact that other (Chinese and non-Chinese) clients are actively working to eradicate US technology from supply chains and you get an idea of what the future of the US tech industry looks like.
Why do business with companies whose government has no issues weaponising their technology?
Surely even you can see that angle?
But just in case...
"That hurts semiconductor companies like Nvidia, which makes graphics chips used to run A.I. applications in China and elsewhere. The Silicon Valley company, already suffering from a sharp sales decline for video game applications, recently estimated that the U.S. restrictions would probably reduce revenues in its current quarter by about $400 million.
The sanctions may bite even harder at companies that sell chip-making equipment, which relied heavily in recent years on sales to Chinese factories.
Lam Research, which produces tools that etch silicon wafers to make chips, estimated that the China limitations would reduce its 2023 revenue by $2 billion to $2.5 billion. “We lost some very profitable customers in the China region, and that’s going to persist,” Doug Bettinger, Lam’s chief financial officer, said during an earnings call last week.
Applied Materials, the biggest maker of chip manufacturing tools, also said sales would suffer because of the restrictions. On Wednesday, another maker of chip manufacturing tools, KLA, said its revenue next year was likely to shrink by $600 million to $900 million as it reduces equipment sales and services to some customers in China"
If only China wasn't weaponizing all of this technology, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
The promise of the blockade of technology to China, is to prevent Xi from growing the economy at the expense of the West, which has already slowed due to COVID, and the collapsing real estate market, and to prevent the PLA from increasing the lethality of its weapons, especially through AI. These blockades may not work indefinitely, but they only need to be successful through the end of the decade for the West to prepare against an increasing militant China. It also means the China will have to increasingly spend more on R&D to keep up with the West.
Funny how authoritarians are so fond of taking hostages, for later negotiations, but either way, those hostages, the human rights violations, and the repression of Hong Kong turned the tide agains Huawei and China. Epic fuckup on Xi's part, as it Xi didn't want a more insular and self sufficient China anyway.
As for the whinging of the semi-conductor supply chain, it is temporary, and supply chain will only increase outside of China, buy you knew that.
As for the comment that I posted above, it provides a historical context. that you fuckers in the EU have been coasting on your National Defense spending, and always depend on the U.S. to come to the rescue when some aggressor, aka Russia decides to threaten or invade. More than that, the EU, as well as the rest of the world benefits from the U.S. Navy providing freedom of navigation that is the basis of global trade.
Now if we can just get the EU to stop trading democracy for exports, we might actually end up in a great place.
Well, the EU is also de-Americanising so don't expect much from that but then again, the entire industry is de-Americanising so you'll have to live with that.
Trump pulled the trigger but the bullet hasn't hit yet. Pointing a big finger at non-US companies and telling them 'you can't sell your products to other non-US companies without a US granted licence' is not the way you generate trust. The US is a technologically toxic market now.
The semiconductor industry isn't 'whinging' about it, it is worried about its future (which now depends more and more on government funding) because it can't sell to its largest market. It has seen share prices slashed, revenues severely impacted, R&D reduced, and worst of all, new competitors rising on the horizon in every area of the semi conductor supply chain.
It is far from a 'temporary' situation because those new competitors will be undercutting US technology in the long run.
It is estimated that the US lost 11 billion dollars in revenues from Huawei alone in the first year of sanctions. Think about it. That's just one company.
LOL.
You keep posting like you think that China is in a great position in this, and that the U.S.. It isn't, and even the EU is distancing itself from China, slowly but surely, and thanks to Russia, a partner of China, invading Ukraine, China is even worse off with the West. Then you have Iran, another partner of Russia, playing out a potential realignment to a secular government. Authoritarians just can't win anymore. Xi is literally reversing the progress that China made earlier.
As for the "billions" in losses of Huawei's revenue, sadly, Huawei is losing even worse than that, completely losing its one time, and short term, dominance in smartphones, even in China. But hey, China and Russia are still well regarded in the Global South, for now anyway.
Do you really think that China will be able to compete with the U.S. and its allies in semiconductors in the decade? They are literally 4 generations behind, and haven't the supply chain internally, so will have to develop that from scratch.
Do you think that the U.S. and the West aren't planning on competing head to head with China on 6G? They have learned their lessons too.
What percentage of world processor output is on cutting edge nodes?
Your 'four generations ahead' claim is ridiculous and meaningless when you take that into account.
I can tell you exactly where Huawei is going in the short term in processor terms: chip stacking.
They have developed a new - cheaper - chip stacking technology as a stop gap measure while the entire supply chain gets rejigged.
Where will China be after ten years of semiconductor self sufficiency efforts? That is impossible to know. However, they will be far closer to their goals than had the US not tried to destroy the global semiconductor supply chain. That is a given. It is also a given that in ten years there will be less US semiconductor influence worldwide because companies are already looking for ways to erradicate US choke points!
6G? That is at least 8 years away and Huawei is actively developing for it. In fact, the US has already had to backtrack on its Huawei sanctions just to be able to get a seat at standards meetings! Such great planning, eh?
Before that, we will see 5.5G and the US will not have much influence there either. Huawei has already resolved the current 5G choke point on 5G ICT equipment.
And the west will not 'compete' with China on 6G. 6G will be a standard! Lots of players will be involved in agreeing that standard. Chinese players included.
LOL.
You are still in denial. If the U.S. blockage of leading edge technology wasn't a big deal, then surely Huawei would have retained its marketshare in phones. They literally had their phone business destroyed. You can't even accept that. But by all means, China should develop its own alternatives, just as the West should develop alternatives to Huawei and ZTE.
As for Huawei, if there is one thing that the world is learning from Russia's invasion, and from China's threats to Taiwan, relying on critical resources or infrastructure from your adversaries is fraught with risk.
I restate. If China wasn't the threat that it is to the existing rules of order, you and I wouldn't be having this conversation. That's on them.
Can we allow our 5G critical infrastructure to be built with technology provided by a company that is private on paper but ultimately answerable to the Chinese communist party state?” would resonate with the German public once asked forcefully.
Yeah, why aren't you advocating for the EU to have more skin in the game and build their own telecom technological base?
Crickets...
Then this;
Germany and China's COSCO
The investment "disproportionately expands China's strategic influence on German and European transport infrastructure as well as Germany's dependence on China", the document, seen by Reuters, says. It points to "considerable risks that arise when elements of the European transport infrastructure are influenced and controlled by China - while China itself does not allow Germany to participate in Chinese ports".
In the event of a crisis, the acquisition would open up the possibility for China to politically instrumentalise part of Germany's as well as Europe's critical infrastructure, it says. The economy ministry and the four ministries led by the liberal Free Democrats joined in drawing up the note, according to the sources.
‘Cosco proudly points out that there is a political commissar on each of his ships & 83% of employees working abroad are party members. The 'red engine' is a competitive advantage.
First off, no one said it wasn't a big deal.
Remember those billions that the US semiconductor industry is bleeding? It is a huge deal.
An industry that absolutely wants to do business with Huawei.
Second. The industry and Huawei had the rug pulled out from under their feet.
It takes time to rejig supply lines and recreate software services. That is happening right now.
It has been suggested that Huawei will return to its two flagship per year release cycle in 2023.
It is expanding its cloud hardware/software business. It is growing its automotive division. Providing 5G services for industry (ports, mining, health, science, aviation, rail, farming etc). Putting even more resources into PV solutions. Leveraging it's patent portfolio.
There is a lot going on.
At the same time it is investing in the semiconductor industry.
That's all technology related.
Huawei is not China. What China and Germany may or may not agree is trade and politics. Not relevant here.
But hey! Why not answer the questions I asked instead of scurrying off to irrelevant points.
Come on! The answer is easy. How much of the world's semiconductor output is on cutting edge nodes?
What is left out, making this graph grossly misleading, is the context of the value of the wafers at the leading edge. This is where TSMC, followed by Samsung, and less so, Intel reside. It should also be noted that most of the design for these nodes occurs in the U.S.
The EU will have difficulty introducing leading edge nodes if they are not a primary designer of the silicon that is fabbed.
China at 14.4% has a mere rounding error of "leading edge" capacity at an inefficient version of 7nm, and is blocked by the U.S. and its allies from obtaining the equipment and building the supply chain necessary to compete.
It anything, Apple has ridden the wave of TSMC success, while providing the bulk of its revenues to continue that.
Context?
How much of the world's wafer output corresponds to cutting edge nodes?
Less than 2%? And falling?
By your argument, sanctions on sales of advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology to China are of little concern...and yet, that is a real and significant imposition on China's growth, isn't it.
Fun facts;
California is set to surpass Germany as the world's fourth largest economy;
The concern is related to the damage the US is doing to its own industry. That is self harm.
US semi-conductor interests have taken a huge hit due to these unilateral extra-territorial sanctions.
In market value loss, the damage has been huge. In a more direct context the damage has also been huge. Lost revenues.
How is the industry supposed to move forward if it can't sell into its largest market? How is it supposed to generate funding for R&D?
Applied Research and NVIDIA will each take a $400mn hit in just one quarter.
And to make matters worse, the whole policy only serves to accelerate the inevitable. Chinese technological progress. Remember. No policymaker has ever mentioned 'stopping' China's progress. Simply slowing it down. Well, there is a short term and long term reading of that but the consensus is clear. China will get there.
Worse still, non-US interests have also been impacted because the rugs have been pulled out from under their feet. As a result, US technology is toxic to them and they are working to get it out of their products.
With the latest 'sanctions' it is actually worse because employees with US citizenship are probably going to lose their jobs at Chinese companies.
An executive at a Chinese semi-conductor company:
“Now we are not just trying to build up ‘US-free’ manufacturing lines but also de-Americanise the teams,” said the executive.
That's from a paywalled FT article.
Let's be clear, absolutely ALL semi-conductor companies want to do business with Chinese companies. Bar none.
Having to halt sales simply because their products contain a tiny amount of US technology has opened their eyes to extra-territorial interference. The same applies to government.
Everyone is reducing their dependence on US technology.
How does that look for US interests? Bread for today but hunger for tomorrow?
Then we have to deal with the completely crackpot ideas of some prominent US representatives. What you are about to read must have come from people who are literally detached from the real world.
They want Biden to interfere in Chinese sovereign activities on Chinese soil.
Read to believe! (and they are citing Bloomberg - yikes!)
"Dear President Biden,
We call on the administration to take immediate action to halt Huawei’s attempt to build the Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Company (PXW) semiconductor foundry. This Huawei-aligned foundry is designed to fatally undermine the U.S. strategy to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) bid to dominate global 5G markets and strengthen its intelligence and repression apparatus.
Bloomberg recently published evidence that Huawei began construction over seven months ago on a factory where PXW is expected to eventually mass produce chips as advanced as 14 nanometers and 7 nanometers. Almost all of these chips are expected to be sold to Huawei, and PXW reportedly has already ordered the advanced equipment necessary to build these chips. This would represent a dangerous leap in Chinese semiconductor manufacturing, as Chinese chipmakers have thus far only been able to produce 7-nanometer chips in limited quantities. With these new chips for its base stations, Huawei could resume its march towards 5G market dominance, and the CCP will advance its plan to control global telecommunications and extend its economic espionage and repression."
Not a word about 'national security' there. Just 5G dominance (commercial and technological interests). The espionage line is just more craziness.
LOL!
Uhm, "economic espionage and repression" are in fact valid National Security issues.
You are free to believe what you want, and for fuck sake, why would anyone want Huawei to "resume its march towards 5G market dominance".
Blackburn wants President Biden to step in and block delivery of any advanced equipment that has been ordered from the West for PXW. More to the point, why is anyone allowing advanced equipment sales to China at this point in time. I agree with that action. China is a threat to Taiwan.
According to Bloomberg sources, the Chinese tech conglomerate is now supporting a small startup ordering equipment for a semiconductor manufacturing plant. Purportedly, the new semiconductor plant, called Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Co. (known as PXW) and run by a former Huawei executive, will be built close to the Huawei headquarters as it is expected to be the plant’s biggest customer, buying “most, if not all, of its output.”
If successful, this would allow Huawei to regain its footing and begin producing devices in earnest again. However, it remains to be seen if PXW will violate U.S. trade sanctions in supplying Huawei, as that would limit what equipment can be purchased by the company. Moreover, it is reported that the company’s first products, expected in 2025, will be on 28-nanometer technology leaving the plant six or more generations behind.
Given the accusations and evidence against Huawei, it will be difficult for any company to affiliate with the denylisted organization. Some of the U.S. restrictions may extend to this new company and prevent PXW from getting off the ground. However, if not, it still sounds like Huawei will be comparatively stuck in the stone age of semiconductors for a little while.
China continues to be a threat to the West and the existing rules of order. That's on Xi and his play for absolute power in China.
Fucking Europeans. Schotz will probably allow China's COSCO to own a portion of port facilities, even though his ministers are telling him no. When will they learn...
Huawei already has 5G dominance. Where have you been? Even now, it leads the market and has already 'de-Americanised' its ICT 5G product stack. It is now simply building out capacity.
China has no recent history of direct meddling in sovereign states through military action. It considers Taiwan part of China but apart from that there is no outward threat that has been singled out to the rest of the world.
'Repression' has nothing to do with US national security.
Apart from US 'sanctions' the rest of the world is eager to sell its technology to China. Yes, ASML and all the US tech industry included. Let that sink in.
You say you don't know why anyone would want to sell advanced tech to China. You are in a very small minority. The CEO of ASML has said more than once that the US approach will not work. Weaponising technology, forcing breakage of international supply lines and forcing sovereign nations to follow US orders or else has been a wake up call to the tech world.
There is nothing anyone is doing with the foundry equipment at that new site that contravenes US sanctions. Do you think ASML et al would risk that?
However, that said, US EDA software makers have said that they would rather Chinese companies 'cracked' their software than see a Chinese rival emerge from the sanctions. Too late for that I'm afraid as that ball is already rolling too.
The request to Biden just goes to show how out of touch with reality those folks are. Try to imagine things the other way around?
It is crazy.
Huawei alone has invested in over 40 semiconductor companies with the aim of rejigging its supply lines (all of them in detriment to US semiconductor industries).
China’s ‘secret police stations’ in UK must be investigated, say MPs
London and Glasgow claimed to be among list of operations to target critics and dissidents
China has been doing this around the world for quite some time. Have to make sure the diaspora don't forget who their bosses are. More than that, the influence operations that China conducts.
You might want to post about that, with your first hand knowledge and alll.
Absolutely nothing to do with technology and my knowledge of China is far less than that of the US and I'm definitely not involved with the Chinese Police. LOL.
Stay on topic!
I never stated that you were involved with the Chinese police, but you have an affection for Huawei, and a defense of China's authoritarianism that is exceptional for AI posters. It blinds you to all of the harm that China has done, and will do, to the world, which is why I am a proponent of constraining China.
As I noted, the Western world is no longer enamored with China, and is resisting China's authoritarian impulse to change the current rules of order that have been the basis for an effective global economy since the end of WWII.
Perhaps if Huawei wasn't so closely linked with the CPC, I might give you more leeway in your views. Alas, China is Huawei, and Huawei is China.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
I have never defended authoritarian governments.
I know a lot about Huawei.
That knowledge allows me point out inaccuracies in what many people spout off about the company. Most of which are about as far from the truth as they can get, and you yourself have been found wanting over and over again.
The western world was never enamored with China in the first place. The western world as you put it and China are basically trading and investment partners. If anything the opposite of what you claim is true as China is pushing development and trading links with Africa and Latin America. The US started an ill thought out trade war with China, in part, to force China to do even more business with it.
If we put the focus on Huawei and the rest of the world, it's the same story. Watch the Huawei Connect 2022 video from this very month in Paris with members of all the big companies and EU parliament members in attendance to see what's happening here.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
That statement is factually incorrect, if not an outright lie on your part, and you know it's a lie, because you live in the West, where we have a nominal free press. That free press does not exist in China, so how would you verify anything that Huawei states? You can't
China has often been criticized for a lack of transparency, especially with regard to its economic and trade policies. While in many cases these criticisms are valid, it belies the fact that in other instances, China is remarkably open and transparent about its intentions and ambitions.
Such is the case with China’s “Opinion on Strengthening the United Front Work of the Private Economy in the New Era,” recently released by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (and further elaborated on by President Xi Jinping himself). This document tells us in no uncertain terms that Chinese private companies will be increasingly called upon to conduct their operations in tight coordination with governmental policy objectives and ideologies. The rest of the world should take note.
A Different Vision of “Private” Business
The 5,000 word “opinion” aims to ratchet-up the role and influence of the CCP within the private sector in order “to better focus the wisdom and strength of the private businesspeople on the goal and mission to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The objective is to establish a “united front” between business and government and facilitate the “enhancement of the party’s leadership over the private economy.” According to the plan, “private economic figures are to be more closely united around the party,” thereby achieving “a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee on political stand, political direction, political principles, and political roads.”
Contrast that with the free market;
All of this stands in stark contrast to long-accepted concepts of how private companies function in a free market. The overriding purpose of business, according to these traditional precepts, is to earn profits through the provision of value-added products and services, in response to marketplace signals and under the constraint of basic economic realities. Government ideology plays no role in that equation.
For the most part, Western governments only regulate private business, for a variety of reasons including National Security, but they are almost never directly involved in the operation of those businesses, and certainly not anything like the CPC is involved in businesses such as Huawei, which are part and parcel of their state security apparatus.
Ultimately, the current marketplace between the West and China has become distorted, and this coincides with Xi era of China rolling back freedoms enjoyed by the Chinese people. You seem to place the blame squarely on the West, when in fact, Xi's complete control of the Chinese government is an obvious issue in the West, as noted by the PEW poll that I posted earlier.
As for your statement that you do not defend authoritarian governments, I have seen a number of your previous statements in denial of China's human rights violations, posted here on Ai, even against overwhelming information that it is occurring, and documented by the same EU that you so strongly support otherwise.
No evidence ever presented. Should we be surprised?
And just to drive the message home to you:
"He recalled that GCHQ was rather unimpressed. The encounter revealed that the US case was primarily political rather than technical. So GCHQ stuck to their guns, as did the prime minister at first, Darroch explained."
Can I now say that AT&T and the UK government are now part of the US government because they changed their reasoned decisions?
The US fears that China will overtake it in the technology realm. That's it.
LOL.
You still are unable to understand the difference between companies in China and companies in the West; it's almost like you are in denial...
Sure, Western Governments shape policy, but they aren't involved in the day to day operation of businesses, nor are these businesses staffed with party members, and operated by party controlled union groups, as they are in China.
Presumably, you have worked in the West before, so you should be able to figure that out.
What is it with you and Huawei anyway? It seems an, unhealthy, attachment.
I'm in denial?
That's rich!
Look. You just veer off topic with the same anti China line over and over again. And now you imply I have some kind of issue? LOL.
There is nothing with 'me and Huawei'.
I just know a lot about the company (and Apple!) and its products. I try to comment on things I know about and stay away from stuff I'm not so knowledgeable of. Samsung could pop up somewhere here and you'll see nary a peep from me because I just don't know Samsung all that well.
As for 'shaping policy' , you seem to have brushed over my subtle point that it is the US that has been trying to shape the policy of sovereign nations for literally decades now and yes, via methods most foul too, but that has little to do with technology does it?
When it comes to the issue under discussion in this thread you literally have nothing to counter what I've pointed out because, by and large, what I have stated is fact, and largely supported by comments from the US administration itself. Especially when Trump was free to tweet his thoughts on an hourly basis.
You're gonna have to accept that.
The US is hellbent on slowing China down because future economic growth is going to be very technology related. Far more than it is now and the US is not well placed to keep pace with China. All its moves have been late and very poorly planned. Starting with 5G. It completely missed the boat.
Okay, keep going with that...
Don't let actual facts hit you in the backside...
Comparing china to THE global super power responsible likely for over half of the world's current population, due in part to the security of trade - allowing every nation to securely trade with each other. The result of which was the most peaceful period of the human race with more people lifted out of poverty than ever before. The sole power responsible for the information age.
Now come the chinese, a culture of which has never had a political regime last longer than 47 years, sans the current one which not only enslaves millions of their people because they're muslim, but harvests organs of prisoners --- prisoners whose only crime was practicing yoga.
At the end of WW2, the US could have owned the world. Instead, it allowed both friend and foe alike to rebuild themselves into the modern world we know today, not only funding the rebuilding, but opening up US markets for them to trade with. Look at JP, DE, and IT today.... Meanwhile look at the former soviet states -- they want nothing to do with russia.
Oh, and China's economy isn't growing like it had. Doesn't look like China will catch up or exceed the U.S., and its population will likely collapse over the next 40 years.
Well done!
You are now presenting comments from random internet posters to back up your off topic claims.
As recently as this week one of the biggest US semi-conductor associations (SIA) made an official statement on the CHIPS act and pushed for more of the outlay to go towards R&D, acknowledging that the semiconductor industry burns through funds like there is no tomorrow and the amounts earmarked for future development will be used up very quickly.
Of course, not being able to do good business with the number one market for its clients' products is hurting to the tune of billions. Then there is the fact that other (Chinese and non-Chinese) clients are actively working to eradicate US technology from supply chains and you get an idea of what the future of the US tech industry looks like.
Why do business with companies whose government has no issues weaponising their technology?
Surely even you can see that angle?
But just in case...
"That hurts semiconductor companies like Nvidia, which makes graphics chips used to run A.I. applications in China and elsewhere. The Silicon Valley company, already suffering from a sharp sales decline for video game applications, recently estimated that the U.S. restrictions would probably reduce revenues in its current quarter by about $400 million.
The sanctions may bite even harder at companies that sell chip-making equipment, which relied heavily in recent years on sales to Chinese factories.
Lam Research, which produces tools that etch silicon wafers to make chips, estimated that the China limitations would reduce its 2023 revenue by $2 billion to $2.5 billion. “We lost some very profitable customers in the China region, and that’s going to persist,” Doug Bettinger, Lam’s chief financial officer, said during an earnings call last week.
Applied Materials, the biggest maker of chip manufacturing tools, also said sales would suffer because of the restrictions. On Wednesday, another maker of chip manufacturing tools, KLA, said its revenue next year was likely to shrink by $600 million to $900 million as it reduces equipment sales and services to some customers in China"
If only China wasn't weaponizing all of this technology, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
The promise of the blockade of technology to China, is to prevent Xi from growing the economy at the expense of the West, which has already slowed due to COVID, and the collapsing real estate market, and to prevent the PLA from increasing the lethality of its weapons, especially through AI. These blockades may not work indefinitely, but they only need to be successful through the end of the decade for the West to prepare against an increasing militant China. It also means the China will have to increasingly spend more on R&D to keep up with the West.
Funny how authoritarians are so fond of taking hostages, for later negotiations, but either way, those hostages, the human rights violations, and the repression of Hong Kong turned the tide agains Huawei and China. Epic fuckup on Xi's part, as it Xi didn't want a more insular and self sufficient China anyway.
As for the whinging of the semi-conductor supply chain, it is temporary, and supply chain will only increase outside of China, buy you knew that.
As for the comment that I posted above, it provides a historical context. that you fuckers in the EU have been coasting on your National Defense spending, and always depend on the U.S. to come to the rescue when some aggressor, aka Russia decides to threaten or invade. More than that, the EU, as well as the rest of the world benefits from the U.S. Navy providing freedom of navigation that is the basis of global trade.
Now if we can just get the EU to stop trading democracy for exports, we might actually end up in a great place.
Well, the EU is also de-Americanising so don't expect much from that but then again, the entire industry is de-Americanising so you'll have to live with that.
Trump pulled the trigger but the bullet hasn't hit yet. Pointing a big finger at non-US companies and telling them 'you can't sell your products to other non-US companies without a US granted licence' is not the way you generate trust. The US is a technologically toxic market now.
The semiconductor industry isn't 'whinging' about it, it is worried about its future (which now depends more and more on government funding) because it can't sell to its largest market. It has seen share prices slashed, revenues severely impacted, R&D reduced, and worst of all, new competitors rising on the horizon in every area of the semi conductor supply chain.
It is far from a 'temporary' situation because those new competitors will be undercutting US technology in the long run.
It is estimated that the US lost 11 billion dollars in revenues from Huawei alone in the first year of sanctions. Think about it. That's just one company.
LOL.
You keep posting like you think that China is in a great position in this, and that the U.S.. It isn't, and even the EU is distancing itself from China, slowly but surely, and thanks to Russia, a partner of China, invading Ukraine, China is even worse off with the West. Then you have Iran, another partner of Russia, playing out a potential realignment to a secular government. Authoritarians just can't win anymore. Xi is literally reversing the progress that China made earlier.
As for the "billions" in losses of Huawei's revenue, sadly, Huawei is losing even worse than that, completely losing its one time, and short term, dominance in smartphones, even in China. But hey, China and Russia are still well regarded in the Global South, for now anyway.
Do you really think that China will be able to compete with the U.S. and its allies in semiconductors in the decade? They are literally 4 generations behind, and haven't the supply chain internally, so will have to develop that from scratch.
Do you think that the U.S. and the West aren't planning on competing head to head with China on 6G? They have learned their lessons too.
What percentage of world processor output is on cutting edge nodes?
Your 'four generations ahead' claim is ridiculous and meaningless when you take that into account.
I can tell you exactly where Huawei is going in the short term in processor terms: chip stacking.
They have developed a new - cheaper - chip stacking technology as a stop gap measure while the entire supply chain gets rejigged.
Where will China be after ten years of semiconductor self sufficiency efforts? That is impossible to know. However, they will be far closer to their goals than had the US not tried to destroy the global semiconductor supply chain. That is a given. It is also a given that in ten years there will be less US semiconductor influence worldwide because companies are already looking for ways to erradicate US choke points!
6G? That is at least 8 years away and Huawei is actively developing for it. In fact, the US has already had to backtrack on its Huawei sanctions just to be able to get a seat at standards meetings! Such great planning, eh?
Before that, we will see 5.5G and the US will not have much influence there either. Huawei has already resolved the current 5G choke point on 5G ICT equipment.
And the west will not 'compete' with China on 6G. 6G will be a standard! Lots of players will be involved in agreeing that standard. Chinese players included.
LOL.
You are still in denial. If the U.S. blockage of leading edge technology wasn't a big deal, then surely Huawei would have retained its marketshare in phones. They literally had their phone business destroyed. You can't even accept that. But by all means, China should develop its own alternatives, just as the West should develop alternatives to Huawei and ZTE.
As for Huawei, if there is one thing that the world is learning from Russia's invasion, and from China's threats to Taiwan, relying on critical resources or infrastructure from your adversaries is fraught with risk.
I restate. If China wasn't the threat that it is to the existing rules of order, you and I wouldn't be having this conversation. That's on them.
Can we allow our 5G critical infrastructure to be built with technology provided by a company that is private on paper but ultimately answerable to the Chinese communist party state?” would resonate with the German public once asked forcefully.
Yeah, why aren't you advocating for the EU to have more skin in the game and build their own telecom technological base?
Crickets...
Then this;
Germany and China's COSCO
The investment "disproportionately expands China's strategic influence on German and European transport infrastructure as well as Germany's dependence on China", the document, seen by Reuters, says. It points to "considerable risks that arise when elements of the European transport infrastructure are influenced and controlled by China - while China itself does not allow Germany to participate in Chinese ports".
In the event of a crisis, the acquisition would open up the possibility for China to politically instrumentalise part of Germany's as well as Europe's critical infrastructure, it says. The economy ministry and the four ministries led by the liberal Free Democrats joined in drawing up the note, according to the sources.
‘Cosco proudly points out that there is a political commissar on each of his ships & 83% of employees working abroad are party members. The 'red engine' is a competitive advantage.
First off, no one said it wasn't a big deal.
Remember those billions that the US semiconductor industry is bleeding? It is a huge deal.
An industry that absolutely wants to do business with Huawei.
Second. The industry and Huawei had the rug pulled out from under their feet.
It takes time to rejig supply lines and recreate software services. That is happening right now.
It has been suggested that Huawei will return to its two flagship per year release cycle in 2023.
It is expanding its cloud hardware/software business. It is growing its automotive division. Providing 5G services for industry (ports, mining, health, science, aviation, rail, farming etc). Putting even more resources into PV solutions. Leveraging it's patent portfolio.
There is a lot going on.
At the same time it is investing in the semiconductor industry.
That's all technology related.
Huawei is not China. What China and Germany may or may not agree is trade and politics. Not relevant here.
But hey! Why not answer the questions I asked instead of scurrying off to irrelevant points.
Come on! The answer is easy. How much of the world's semiconductor output is on cutting edge nodes?
Why do I need to answer your questions? You have an obvious bias for China/Huawei as do I have a bias for democracy.
More to the point, why don't you accept that this is primarily about National Security? Are you unable to see that?
What is left out, making this graph grossly misleading, is the context of the value of the wafers at the leading edge. This is where TSMC, followed by Samsung, and less so, Intel reside. It should also be noted that most of the design for these nodes occurs in the U.S.
The EU will have difficulty introducing leading edge nodes if they are not a primary designer of the silicon that is fabbed.
China at 14.4% has a mere rounding error of "leading edge" capacity at an inefficient version of 7nm, and is blocked by the U.S. and its allies from obtaining the equipment and building the supply chain necessary to compete.
It anything, Apple has ridden the wave of TSMC success, while providing the bulk of its revenues to continue that.
Context?
How much of the world's wafer output corresponds to cutting edge nodes?
Less than 2%? And falling?
By your argument, sanctions on sales of advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology to China are of little concern...and yet, that is a real and significant imposition on China's growth, isn't it.
Fun facts;
California is set to surpass Germany as the world's fourth largest economy;
The concern is related to the damage the US is doing to its own industry. That is self harm.
US semi-conductor interests have taken a huge hit due to these unilateral extra-territorial sanctions.
In market value loss, the damage has been huge. In a more direct context the damage has also been huge. Lost revenues.
How is the industry supposed to move forward if it can't sell into its largest market? How is it supposed to generate funding for R&D?
Applied Research and NVIDIA will each take a $400mn hit in just one quarter.
And to make matters worse, the whole policy only serves to accelerate the inevitable. Chinese technological progress. Remember. No policymaker has ever mentioned 'stopping' China's progress. Simply slowing it down. Well, there is a short term and long term reading of that but the consensus is clear. China will get there.
Worse still, non-US interests have also been impacted because the rugs have been pulled out from under their feet. As a result, US technology is toxic to them and they are working to get it out of their products.
With the latest 'sanctions' it is actually worse because employees with US citizenship are probably going to lose their jobs at Chinese companies.
An executive at a Chinese semi-conductor company:
“Now we are not just trying to build up ‘US-free’ manufacturing lines but also de-Americanise the teams,” said the executive.
That's from a paywalled FT article.
Let's be clear, absolutely ALL semi-conductor companies want to do business with Chinese companies. Bar none.
Having to halt sales simply because their products contain a tiny amount of US technology has opened their eyes to extra-territorial interference. The same applies to government.
Everyone is reducing their dependence on US technology.
How does that look for US interests? Bread for today but hunger for tomorrow?
Then we have to deal with the completely crackpot ideas of some prominent US representatives. What you are about to read must have come from people who are literally detached from the real world.
They want Biden to interfere in Chinese sovereign activities on Chinese soil.
Read to believe! (and they are citing Bloomberg - yikes!)
"Dear President Biden,
We call on the administration to take immediate action to halt Huawei’s attempt to build the Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Company (PXW) semiconductor foundry. This Huawei-aligned foundry is designed to fatally undermine the U.S. strategy to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) bid to dominate global 5G markets and strengthen its intelligence and repression apparatus.
Bloomberg recently published evidence that Huawei began construction over seven months ago on a factory where PXW is expected to eventually mass produce chips as advanced as 14 nanometers and 7 nanometers. Almost all of these chips are expected to be sold to Huawei, and PXW reportedly has already ordered the advanced equipment necessary to build these chips. This would represent a dangerous leap in Chinese semiconductor manufacturing, as Chinese chipmakers have thus far only been able to produce 7-nanometer chips in limited quantities. With these new chips for its base stations, Huawei could resume its march towards 5G market dominance, and the CCP will advance its plan to control global telecommunications and extend its economic espionage and repression."
Not a word about 'national security' there. Just 5G dominance (commercial and technological interests). The espionage line is just more craziness.
LOL!
Uhm, "economic espionage and repression" are in fact valid National Security issues.
You are free to believe what you want, and for fuck sake, why would anyone want Huawei to "resume its march towards 5G market dominance".
Blackburn wants President Biden to step in and block delivery of any advanced equipment that has been ordered from the West for PXW. More to the point, why is anyone allowing advanced equipment sales to China at this point in time. I agree with that action. China is a threat to Taiwan.
According to Bloomberg sources, the Chinese tech conglomerate is now supporting a small startup ordering equipment for a semiconductor manufacturing plant. Purportedly, the new semiconductor plant, called Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Co. (known as PXW) and run by a former Huawei executive, will be built close to the Huawei headquarters as it is expected to be the plant’s biggest customer, buying “most, if not all, of its output.”
If successful, this would allow Huawei to regain its footing and begin producing devices in earnest again. However, it remains to be seen if PXW will violate U.S. trade sanctions in supplying Huawei, as that would limit what equipment can be purchased by the company. Moreover, it is reported that the company’s first products, expected in 2025, will be on 28-nanometer technology leaving the plant six or more generations behind.
Given the accusations and evidence against Huawei, it will be difficult for any company to affiliate with the denylisted organization. Some of the U.S. restrictions may extend to this new company and prevent PXW from getting off the ground. However, if not, it still sounds like Huawei will be comparatively stuck in the stone age of semiconductors for a little while.
China continues to be a threat to the West and the existing rules of order. That's on Xi and his play for absolute power in China.
Fucking Europeans. Schotz will probably allow China's COSCO to own a portion of port facilities, even though his ministers are telling him no. When will they learn...
Huawei already has 5G dominance. Where have you been? Even now, it leads the market and has already 'de-Americanised' its ICT 5G product stack. It is now simply building out capacity.
China has no recent history of direct meddling in sovereign states through military action. It considers Taiwan part of China but apart from that there is no outward threat that has been singled out to the rest of the world.
'Repression' has nothing to do with US national security.
Apart from US 'sanctions' the rest of the world is eager to sell its technology to China. Yes, ASML and all the US tech industry included. Let that sink in.
You say you don't know why anyone would want to sell advanced tech to China. You are in a very small minority. The CEO of ASML has said more than once that the US approach will not work. Weaponising technology, forcing breakage of international supply lines and forcing sovereign nations to follow US orders or else has been a wake up call to the tech world.
There is nothing anyone is doing with the foundry equipment at that new site that contravenes US sanctions. Do you think ASML et al would risk that?
However, that said, US EDA software makers have said that they would rather Chinese companies 'cracked' their software than see a Chinese rival emerge from the sanctions. Too late for that I'm afraid as that ball is already rolling too.
The request to Biden just goes to show how out of touch with reality those folks are. Try to imagine things the other way around?
It is crazy.
Huawei alone has invested in over 40 semiconductor companies with the aim of rejigging its supply lines (all of them in detriment to US semiconductor industries).
China’s ‘secret police stations’ in UK must be investigated, say MPs
London and Glasgow claimed to be among list of operations to target critics and dissidents
China has been doing this around the world for quite some time. Have to make sure the diaspora don't forget who their bosses are. More than that, the influence operations that China conducts.
You might want to post about that, with your first hand knowledge and alll.
Absolutely nothing to do with technology and my knowledge of China is far less than that of the US and I'm definitely not involved with the Chinese Police. LOL.
Stay on topic!
I never stated that you were involved with the Chinese police, but you have an affection for Huawei, and a defense of China's authoritarianism that is exceptional for AI posters. It blinds you to all of the harm that China has done, and will do, to the world, which is why I am a proponent of constraining China.
As I noted, the Western world is no longer enamored with China, and is resisting China's authoritarian impulse to change the current rules of order that have been the basis for an effective global economy since the end of WWII.
Perhaps if Huawei wasn't so closely linked with the CPC, I might give you more leeway in your views. Alas, China is Huawei, and Huawei is China.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
I have never defended authoritarian governments.
I know a lot about Huawei.
That knowledge allows me point out inaccuracies in what many people spout off about the company. Most of which are about as far from the truth as they can get, and you yourself have been found wanting over and over again.
The western world was never enamored with China in the first place. The western world as you put it and China are basically trading and investment partners. If anything the opposite of what you claim is true as China is pushing development and trading links with Africa and Latin America. The US started an ill thought out trade war with China, in part, to force China to do even more business with it.
If we put the focus on Huawei and the rest of the world, it's the same story. Watch the Huawei Connect 2022 video from this very month in Paris with members of all the big companies and EU parliament members in attendance to see what's happening here.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
That statement is factually incorrect, if not an outright lie on your part, and you know it's a lie, because you live in the West, where we have a nominal free press. That free press does not exist in China, so how would you verify anything that Huawei states? You can't
China has often been criticized for a lack of transparency, especially with regard to its economic and trade policies. While in many cases these criticisms are valid, it belies the fact that in other instances, China is remarkably open and transparent about its intentions and ambitions.
Such is the case with China’s “Opinion on Strengthening the United Front Work of the Private Economy in the New Era,” recently released by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (and further elaborated on by President Xi Jinping himself). This document tells us in no uncertain terms that Chinese private companies will be increasingly called upon to conduct their operations in tight coordination with governmental policy objectives and ideologies. The rest of the world should take note.
A Different Vision of “Private” Business
The 5,000 word “opinion” aims to ratchet-up the role and influence of the CCP within the private sector in order “to better focus the wisdom and strength of the private businesspeople on the goal and mission to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The objective is to establish a “united front” between business and government and facilitate the “enhancement of the party’s leadership over the private economy.” According to the plan, “private economic figures are to be more closely united around the party,” thereby achieving “a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee on political stand, political direction, political principles, and political roads.”
Contrast that with the free market;
All of this stands in stark contrast to long-accepted concepts of how private companies function in a free market. The overriding purpose of business, according to these traditional precepts, is to earn profits through the provision of value-added products and services, in response to marketplace signals and under the constraint of basic economic realities. Government ideology plays no role in that equation.
For the most part, Western governments only regulate private business, for a variety of reasons including National Security, but they are almost never directly involved in the operation of those businesses, and certainly not anything like the CPC is involved in businesses such as Huawei, which are part and parcel of their state security apparatus.
Ultimately, the current marketplace between the West and China has become distorted, and this coincides with Xi era of China rolling back freedoms enjoyed by the Chinese people. You seem to place the blame squarely on the West, when in fact, Xi's complete control of the Chinese government is an obvious issue in the West, as noted by the PEW poll that I posted earlier.
As for your statement that you do not defend authoritarian governments, I have seen a number of your previous statements in denial of China's human rights violations, posted here on Ai, even against overwhelming information that it is occurring, and documented by the same EU that you so strongly support otherwise.
No evidence ever presented. Should we be surprised?
And just to drive the message home to you:
"He recalled that GCHQ was rather unimpressed. The encounter revealed that the US case was primarily political rather than technical. So GCHQ stuck to their guns, as did the prime minister at first, Darroch explained."
Can I now say that AT&T and the UK government are now part of the US government because they changed their reasoned decisions?
The US fears that China will overtake it in the technology realm. That's it.
LOL.
You still are unable to understand the difference between companies in China and companies in the West; it's almost like you are in denial...
Sure, Western Governments shape policy, but they aren't involved in the day to day operation of businesses, nor are these businesses staffed with party members, and operated by party controlled union groups, as they are in China.
Presumably, you have worked in the West before, so you should be able to figure that out.
What is it with you and Huawei anyway? It seems an, unhealthy, attachment.
I'm in denial?
That's rich!
Look. You just veer off topic with the same anti China line over and over again. And now you imply I have some kind of issue? LOL.
There is nothing with 'me and Huawei'.
I just know a lot about the company (and Apple!) and its products. I try to comment on things I know about and stay away from stuff I'm not so knowledgeable of. Samsung could pop up somewhere here and you'll see nary a peep from me because I just don't know Samsung all that well.
As for 'shaping policy' , you seem to have brushed over my subtle point that it is the US that has been trying to shape the policy of sovereign nations for literally decades now and yes, via methods most foul too, but that has little to do with technology does it?
When it comes to the issue under discussion in this thread you literally have nothing to counter what I've pointed out because, by and large, what I have stated is fact, and largely supported by comments from the US administration itself. Especially when Trump was free to tweet his thoughts on an hourly basis.
You're gonna have to accept that.
The US is hellbent on slowing China down because future economic growth is going to be very technology related. Far more than it is now and the US is not well placed to keep pace with China. All its moves have been late and very poorly planned. Starting with 5G. It completely missed the boat.
Okay, keep going with that...
Don't let actual facts hit you in the backside...
Comparing china to THE global super power responsible likely for over half of the world's current population, due in part to the security of trade - allowing every nation to securely trade with each other. The result of which was the most peaceful period of the human race with more people lifted out of poverty than ever before. The sole power responsible for the information age.
Now come the chinese, a culture of which has never had a political regime last longer than 47 years, sans the current one which not only enslaves millions of their people because they're muslim, but harvests organs of prisoners --- prisoners whose only crime was practicing yoga.
At the end of WW2, the US could have owned the world. Instead, it allowed both friend and foe alike to rebuild themselves into the modern world we know today, not only funding the rebuilding, but opening up US markets for them to trade with. Look at JP, DE, and IT today.... Meanwhile look at the former soviet states -- they want nothing to do with russia.
Oh, and China's economy isn't growing like it had. Doesn't look like China will catch up or exceed the U.S., and its population will likely collapse over the next 40 years.
Well done!
You are now presenting comments from random internet posters to back up your off topic claims.
As recently as this week one of the biggest US semi-conductor associations (SIA) made an official statement on the CHIPS act and pushed for more of the outlay to go towards R&D, acknowledging that the semiconductor industry burns through funds like there is no tomorrow and the amounts earmarked for future development will be used up very quickly.
Of course, not being able to do good business with the number one market for its clients' products is hurting to the tune of billions. Then there is the fact that other (Chinese and non-Chinese) clients are actively working to eradicate US technology from supply chains and you get an idea of what the future of the US tech industry looks like.
Why do business with companies whose government has no issues weaponising their technology?
Surely even you can see that angle?
But just in case...
"That hurts semiconductor companies like Nvidia, which makes graphics chips used to run A.I. applications in China and elsewhere. The Silicon Valley company, already suffering from a sharp sales decline for video game applications, recently estimated that the U.S. restrictions would probably reduce revenues in its current quarter by about $400 million.
The sanctions may bite even harder at companies that sell chip-making equipment, which relied heavily in recent years on sales to Chinese factories.
Lam Research, which produces tools that etch silicon wafers to make chips, estimated that the China limitations would reduce its 2023 revenue by $2 billion to $2.5 billion. “We lost some very profitable customers in the China region, and that’s going to persist,” Doug Bettinger, Lam’s chief financial officer, said during an earnings call last week.
Applied Materials, the biggest maker of chip manufacturing tools, also said sales would suffer because of the restrictions. On Wednesday, another maker of chip manufacturing tools, KLA, said its revenue next year was likely to shrink by $600 million to $900 million as it reduces equipment sales and services to some customers in China"
If only China wasn't weaponizing all of this technology, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
The promise of the blockade of technology to China, is to prevent Xi from growing the economy at the expense of the West, which has already slowed due to COVID, and the collapsing real estate market, and to prevent the PLA from increasing the lethality of its weapons, especially through AI. These blockades may not work indefinitely, but they only need to be successful through the end of the decade for the West to prepare against an increasing militant China. It also means the China will have to increasingly spend more on R&D to keep up with the West.
Funny how authoritarians are so fond of taking hostages, for later negotiations, but either way, those hostages, the human rights violations, and the repression of Hong Kong turned the tide agains Huawei and China. Epic fuckup on Xi's part, as it Xi didn't want a more insular and self sufficient China anyway.
As for the whinging of the semi-conductor supply chain, it is temporary, and supply chain will only increase outside of China, buy you knew that.
As for the comment that I posted above, it provides a historical context. that you fuckers in the EU have been coasting on your National Defense spending, and always depend on the U.S. to come to the rescue when some aggressor, aka Russia decides to threaten or invade. More than that, the EU, as well as the rest of the world benefits from the U.S. Navy providing freedom of navigation that is the basis of global trade.
Now if we can just get the EU to stop trading democracy for exports, we might actually end up in a great place.
Well, the EU is also de-Americanising so don't expect much from that but then again, the entire industry is de-Americanising so you'll have to live with that.
Trump pulled the trigger but the bullet hasn't hit yet. Pointing a big finger at non-US companies and telling them 'you can't sell your products to other non-US companies without a US granted licence' is not the way you generate trust. The US is a technologically toxic market now.
The semiconductor industry isn't 'whinging' about it, it is worried about its future (which now depends more and more on government funding) because it can't sell to its largest market. It has seen share prices slashed, revenues severely impacted, R&D reduced, and worst of all, new competitors rising on the horizon in every area of the semi conductor supply chain.
It is far from a 'temporary' situation because those new competitors will be undercutting US technology in the long run.
It is estimated that the US lost 11 billion dollars in revenues from Huawei alone in the first year of sanctions. Think about it. That's just one company.
LOL.
You keep posting like you think that China is in a great position in this, and that the U.S.. It isn't, and even the EU is distancing itself from China, slowly but surely, and thanks to Russia, a partner of China, invading Ukraine, China is even worse off with the West. Then you have Iran, another partner of Russia, playing out a potential realignment to a secular government. Authoritarians just can't win anymore. Xi is literally reversing the progress that China made earlier.
As for the "billions" in losses of Huawei's revenue, sadly, Huawei is losing even worse than that, completely losing its one time, and short term, dominance in smartphones, even in China. But hey, China and Russia are still well regarded in the Global South, for now anyway.
Do you really think that China will be able to compete with the U.S. and its allies in semiconductors in the decade? They are literally 4 generations behind, and haven't the supply chain internally, so will have to develop that from scratch.
Do you think that the U.S. and the West aren't planning on competing head to head with China on 6G? They have learned their lessons too.
What percentage of world processor output is on cutting edge nodes?
Your 'four generations ahead' claim is ridiculous and meaningless when you take that into account.
I can tell you exactly where Huawei is going in the short term in processor terms: chip stacking.
They have developed a new - cheaper - chip stacking technology as a stop gap measure while the entire supply chain gets rejigged.
Where will China be after ten years of semiconductor self sufficiency efforts? That is impossible to know. However, they will be far closer to their goals than had the US not tried to destroy the global semiconductor supply chain. That is a given. It is also a given that in ten years there will be less US semiconductor influence worldwide because companies are already looking for ways to erradicate US choke points!
6G? That is at least 8 years away and Huawei is actively developing for it. In fact, the US has already had to backtrack on its Huawei sanctions just to be able to get a seat at standards meetings! Such great planning, eh?
Before that, we will see 5.5G and the US will not have much influence there either. Huawei has already resolved the current 5G choke point on 5G ICT equipment.
And the west will not 'compete' with China on 6G. 6G will be a standard! Lots of players will be involved in agreeing that standard. Chinese players included.
LOL.
You are still in denial. If the U.S. blockage of leading edge technology wasn't a big deal, then surely Huawei would have retained its marketshare in phones. They literally had their phone business destroyed. You can't even accept that. But by all means, China should develop its own alternatives, just as the West should develop alternatives to Huawei and ZTE.
As for Huawei, if there is one thing that the world is learning from Russia's invasion, and from China's threats to Taiwan, relying on critical resources or infrastructure from your adversaries is fraught with risk.
I restate. If China wasn't the threat that it is to the existing rules of order, you and I wouldn't be having this conversation. That's on them.
Can we allow our 5G critical infrastructure to be built with technology provided by a company that is private on paper but ultimately answerable to the Chinese communist party state?” would resonate with the German public once asked forcefully.
Yeah, why aren't you advocating for the EU to have more skin in the game and build their own telecom technological base?
Crickets...
Then this;
Germany and China's COSCO
The investment "disproportionately expands China's strategic influence on German and European transport infrastructure as well as Germany's dependence on China", the document, seen by Reuters, says. It points to "considerable risks that arise when elements of the European transport infrastructure are influenced and controlled by China - while China itself does not allow Germany to participate in Chinese ports".
In the event of a crisis, the acquisition would open up the possibility for China to politically instrumentalise part of Germany's as well as Europe's critical infrastructure, it says. The economy ministry and the four ministries led by the liberal Free Democrats joined in drawing up the note, according to the sources.
‘Cosco proudly points out that there is a political commissar on each of his ships & 83% of employees working abroad are party members. The 'red engine' is a competitive advantage.
First off, no one said it wasn't a big deal.
Remember those billions that the US semiconductor industry is bleeding? It is a huge deal.
An industry that absolutely wants to do business with Huawei.
Second. The industry and Huawei had the rug pulled out from under their feet.
It takes time to rejig supply lines and recreate software services. That is happening right now.
It has been suggested that Huawei will return to its two flagship per year release cycle in 2023.
It is expanding its cloud hardware/software business. It is growing its automotive division. Providing 5G services for industry (ports, mining, health, science, aviation, rail, farming etc). Putting even more resources into PV solutions. Leveraging it's patent portfolio.
There is a lot going on.
At the same time it is investing in the semiconductor industry.
That's all technology related.
Huawei is not China. What China and Germany may or may not agree is trade and politics. Not relevant here.
But hey! Why not answer the questions I asked instead of scurrying off to irrelevant points.
Come on! The answer is easy. How much of the world's semiconductor output is on cutting edge nodes?
Why do I need to answer your questions? You have an obvious bias for China/Huawei as do I have a bias for democracy.
More to the point, why don't you accept that this is primarily about National Security? Are you unable to see that?
That has been debunked over and over again and I gave you a link right here in this thread that touched that full on.
The US provided zero evidence of national security risks to anyone. It never has. GCHQ didn't buy it either. Huawei offered to licence its entire 5G stack to a US company or consortium, including source code. The whole damn thing! It wasn't accepted. Why? Because national security isn't the issue here. Technology is.
US representatives had to literally shout their orders relative to Huawei and 5G for five hours solid to the UK government which refused to budge until the US finally pulled the rug out from under everyone's feet by creating a situation in which the UK government thought that Huawei might not be able to source the required components for the roll out.
You propose something to a supposed 'ally' that you have a supposed 'special relationship' with. You offer up zero evidence to support your claims and when they snub you and support the snub with real evidence, you literally force them to bow down to your orders. Is that authoritarian?
That move cost its dear 'friend' billions in rip and replace along with a major strategic delay in getting 5G into industry. Ah! And no trade deal for that dear friend either!
And in the end Huawei has showed no signs of not actually fulfilling its contractual obligations in Europe, Asia Pacific, near and Middle East, Latin America and Africa. Russia is on hold for multilateral sanctions.
So, whenever you mention the 'west' what you really mean is the area comprised of a few countries. A tiny part of Huawei's world trade. Even today it is still bigger than Nokia and Ericsson combined in terms of ICT and still ranks number one in 5G infrastructure.
Yes, there are huge problems to be dealt with but they have geopolitical roots, not technical roots. There is no doubt in anyone's mind that China will resolve those technical problems sooner than if the US had not done anything. Absolutely zero doubt of that.
In terms of problems though, it is the US which has made a rod for its own back and there is no turning back on that. The bullet has been fired. The US is now regarded as an untrustworthy technological partner. That is an insurmountable problem.
The latest sanctions have actually worsened the situation as they directly impact US citizens working for Chinese companies. Now even US employees are considered toxic.
The rest of the world was already working to reduce dependencies on non-sovereign technology. That was one of the goals set out in the creation of the EU processor initiative which was created long before the US even realised it needed a CHIPS act. However, that was at a government level and would use both government and private funding to achieve its goals.
After seeing their businesses severely impacted through unilateral, extraterritorial US sanctions, non-US companies have accelerated their plans to remove dependencies on US technology.
Even you should be able to see the outcome of those actions. The US can only do what it is currently doing because its technology sold into the global supply chain. It is now trying to fragment that supply chain unilaterally. No one will want to buy from companies it cannot rely on because of government actions.
Lastly, the question you refuse to answer. The world does not turn on cutting edge processes. It never has! The world turns on stable, mature process nodes. That is why virtually none of the world's semiconductor output is on cutting edge technology.
The recent shortage of chips across the world's supply chains was NOT a shortage of cutting edge chips. Please get that into your head!
That is why the latest round (and late being the right word here) of sanctions against companies wanting to sell technology to China are focused on much older equipment, not the minority, latest, greatest and of course, most expensive nodes.
The potential knock on effect here is that the world depends on China for the finished products and fiddling with those older process nodes could have gigantic effects on trade worldwide. Yet another reason why companies want out (and as quickly as possible!) on US dependency. Of course, even the US administration finally saw that bullet going its way and had to quickly issue 'exceptions' to certain companies with business in China.
TSMC has said it. ASML has said it. ASMI has said it. Everyone knows it. The US approach will fail.
Technically it has already failed as it has only served to highlight the issues of technology dependencies. Now the world is accelerating plans to eradicate US dependencies. China is obviously leading that pack. US semiconductor businesses are bleeding green to the tune of billions. Billions needed for R&D.
All you have been able to offer up is your usual hatred of China (politics which has no place here) and say it is all 'temporary'.
You obviously don't want to acknowledge what is happening.
What is left out, making this graph grossly misleading, is the context of the value of the wafers at the leading edge. This is where TSMC, followed by Samsung, and less so, Intel reside. It should also be noted that most of the design for these nodes occurs in the U.S.
The EU will have difficulty introducing leading edge nodes if they are not a primary designer of the silicon that is fabbed.
China at 14.4% has a mere rounding error of "leading edge" capacity at an inefficient version of 7nm, and is blocked by the U.S. and its allies from obtaining the equipment and building the supply chain necessary to compete.
It anything, Apple has ridden the wave of TSMC success, while providing the bulk of its revenues to continue that.
Context?
How much of the world's wafer output corresponds to cutting edge nodes?
Less than 2%? And falling?
By your argument, sanctions on sales of advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology to China are of little concern...and yet, that is a real and significant imposition on China's growth, isn't it.
Fun facts;
California is set to surpass Germany as the world's fourth largest economy;
The concern is related to the damage the US is doing to its own industry. That is self harm.
US semi-conductor interests have taken a huge hit due to these unilateral extra-territorial sanctions.
In market value loss, the damage has been huge. In a more direct context the damage has also been huge. Lost revenues.
How is the industry supposed to move forward if it can't sell into its largest market? How is it supposed to generate funding for R&D?
Applied Research and NVIDIA will each take a $400mn hit in just one quarter.
And to make matters worse, the whole policy only serves to accelerate the inevitable. Chinese technological progress. Remember. No policymaker has ever mentioned 'stopping' China's progress. Simply slowing it down. Well, there is a short term and long term reading of that but the consensus is clear. China will get there.
Worse still, non-US interests have also been impacted because the rugs have been pulled out from under their feet. As a result, US technology is toxic to them and they are working to get it out of their products.
With the latest 'sanctions' it is actually worse because employees with US citizenship are probably going to lose their jobs at Chinese companies.
An executive at a Chinese semi-conductor company:
“Now we are not just trying to build up ‘US-free’ manufacturing lines but also de-Americanise the teams,” said the executive.
That's from a paywalled FT article.
Let's be clear, absolutely ALL semi-conductor companies want to do business with Chinese companies. Bar none.
Having to halt sales simply because their products contain a tiny amount of US technology has opened their eyes to extra-territorial interference. The same applies to government.
Everyone is reducing their dependence on US technology.
How does that look for US interests? Bread for today but hunger for tomorrow?
Then we have to deal with the completely crackpot ideas of some prominent US representatives. What you are about to read must have come from people who are literally detached from the real world.
They want Biden to interfere in Chinese sovereign activities on Chinese soil.
Read to believe! (and they are citing Bloomberg - yikes!)
"Dear President Biden,
We call on the administration to take immediate action to halt Huawei’s attempt to build the Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Company (PXW) semiconductor foundry. This Huawei-aligned foundry is designed to fatally undermine the U.S. strategy to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) bid to dominate global 5G markets and strengthen its intelligence and repression apparatus.
Bloomberg recently published evidence that Huawei began construction over seven months ago on a factory where PXW is expected to eventually mass produce chips as advanced as 14 nanometers and 7 nanometers. Almost all of these chips are expected to be sold to Huawei, and PXW reportedly has already ordered the advanced equipment necessary to build these chips. This would represent a dangerous leap in Chinese semiconductor manufacturing, as Chinese chipmakers have thus far only been able to produce 7-nanometer chips in limited quantities. With these new chips for its base stations, Huawei could resume its march towards 5G market dominance, and the CCP will advance its plan to control global telecommunications and extend its economic espionage and repression."
Not a word about 'national security' there. Just 5G dominance (commercial and technological interests). The espionage line is just more craziness.
LOL!
Uhm, "economic espionage and repression" are in fact valid National Security issues.
You are free to believe what you want, and for fuck sake, why would anyone want Huawei to "resume its march towards 5G market dominance".
Blackburn wants President Biden to step in and block delivery of any advanced equipment that has been ordered from the West for PXW. More to the point, why is anyone allowing advanced equipment sales to China at this point in time. I agree with that action. China is a threat to Taiwan.
According to Bloomberg sources, the Chinese tech conglomerate is now supporting a small startup ordering equipment for a semiconductor manufacturing plant. Purportedly, the new semiconductor plant, called Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Co. (known as PXW) and run by a former Huawei executive, will be built close to the Huawei headquarters as it is expected to be the plant’s biggest customer, buying “most, if not all, of its output.”
If successful, this would allow Huawei to regain its footing and begin producing devices in earnest again. However, it remains to be seen if PXW will violate U.S. trade sanctions in supplying Huawei, as that would limit what equipment can be purchased by the company. Moreover, it is reported that the company’s first products, expected in 2025, will be on 28-nanometer technology leaving the plant six or more generations behind.
Given the accusations and evidence against Huawei, it will be difficult for any company to affiliate with the denylisted organization. Some of the U.S. restrictions may extend to this new company and prevent PXW from getting off the ground. However, if not, it still sounds like Huawei will be comparatively stuck in the stone age of semiconductors for a little while.
China continues to be a threat to the West and the existing rules of order. That's on Xi and his play for absolute power in China.
Fucking Europeans. Schotz will probably allow China's COSCO to own a portion of port facilities, even though his ministers are telling him no. When will they learn...
Huawei already has 5G dominance. Where have you been? Even now, it leads the market and has already 'de-Americanised' its ICT 5G product stack. It is now simply building out capacity.
China has no recent history of direct meddling in sovereign states through military action. It considers Taiwan part of China but apart from that there is no outward threat that has been singled out to the rest of the world.
'Repression' has nothing to do with US national security.
Apart from US 'sanctions' the rest of the world is eager to sell its technology to China. Yes, ASML and all the US tech industry included. Let that sink in.
You say you don't know why anyone would want to sell advanced tech to China. You are in a very small minority. The CEO of ASML has said more than once that the US approach will not work. Weaponising technology, forcing breakage of international supply lines and forcing sovereign nations to follow US orders or else has been a wake up call to the tech world.
There is nothing anyone is doing with the foundry equipment at that new site that contravenes US sanctions. Do you think ASML et al would risk that?
However, that said, US EDA software makers have said that they would rather Chinese companies 'cracked' their software than see a Chinese rival emerge from the sanctions. Too late for that I'm afraid as that ball is already rolling too.
The request to Biden just goes to show how out of touch with reality those folks are. Try to imagine things the other way around?
It is crazy.
Huawei alone has invested in over 40 semiconductor companies with the aim of rejigging its supply lines (all of them in detriment to US semiconductor industries).
China’s ‘secret police stations’ in UK must be investigated, say MPs
London and Glasgow claimed to be among list of operations to target critics and dissidents
China has been doing this around the world for quite some time. Have to make sure the diaspora don't forget who their bosses are. More than that, the influence operations that China conducts.
You might want to post about that, with your first hand knowledge and alll.
Absolutely nothing to do with technology and my knowledge of China is far less than that of the US and I'm definitely not involved with the Chinese Police. LOL.
Stay on topic!
I never stated that you were involved with the Chinese police, but you have an affection for Huawei, and a defense of China's authoritarianism that is exceptional for AI posters. It blinds you to all of the harm that China has done, and will do, to the world, which is why I am a proponent of constraining China.
As I noted, the Western world is no longer enamored with China, and is resisting China's authoritarian impulse to change the current rules of order that have been the basis for an effective global economy since the end of WWII.
Perhaps if Huawei wasn't so closely linked with the CPC, I might give you more leeway in your views. Alas, China is Huawei, and Huawei is China.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
I have never defended authoritarian governments.
I know a lot about Huawei.
That knowledge allows me point out inaccuracies in what many people spout off about the company. Most of which are about as far from the truth as they can get, and you yourself have been found wanting over and over again.
The western world was never enamored with China in the first place. The western world as you put it and China are basically trading and investment partners. If anything the opposite of what you claim is true as China is pushing development and trading links with Africa and Latin America. The US started an ill thought out trade war with China, in part, to force China to do even more business with it.
If we put the focus on Huawei and the rest of the world, it's the same story. Watch the Huawei Connect 2022 video from this very month in Paris with members of all the big companies and EU parliament members in attendance to see what's happening here.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
That statement is factually incorrect, if not an outright lie on your part, and you know it's a lie, because you live in the West, where we have a nominal free press. That free press does not exist in China, so how would you verify anything that Huawei states? You can't
China has often been criticized for a lack of transparency, especially with regard to its economic and trade policies. While in many cases these criticisms are valid, it belies the fact that in other instances, China is remarkably open and transparent about its intentions and ambitions.
Such is the case with China’s “Opinion on Strengthening the United Front Work of the Private Economy in the New Era,” recently released by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (and further elaborated on by President Xi Jinping himself). This document tells us in no uncertain terms that Chinese private companies will be increasingly called upon to conduct their operations in tight coordination with governmental policy objectives and ideologies. The rest of the world should take note.
A Different Vision of “Private” Business
The 5,000 word “opinion” aims to ratchet-up the role and influence of the CCP within the private sector in order “to better focus the wisdom and strength of the private businesspeople on the goal and mission to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The objective is to establish a “united front” between business and government and facilitate the “enhancement of the party’s leadership over the private economy.” According to the plan, “private economic figures are to be more closely united around the party,” thereby achieving “a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee on political stand, political direction, political principles, and political roads.”
Contrast that with the free market;
All of this stands in stark contrast to long-accepted concepts of how private companies function in a free market. The overriding purpose of business, according to these traditional precepts, is to earn profits through the provision of value-added products and services, in response to marketplace signals and under the constraint of basic economic realities. Government ideology plays no role in that equation.
For the most part, Western governments only regulate private business, for a variety of reasons including National Security, but they are almost never directly involved in the operation of those businesses, and certainly not anything like the CPC is involved in businesses such as Huawei, which are part and parcel of their state security apparatus.
Ultimately, the current marketplace between the West and China has become distorted, and this coincides with Xi era of China rolling back freedoms enjoyed by the Chinese people. You seem to place the blame squarely on the West, when in fact, Xi's complete control of the Chinese government is an obvious issue in the West, as noted by the PEW poll that I posted earlier.
As for your statement that you do not defend authoritarian governments, I have seen a number of your previous statements in denial of China's human rights violations, posted here on Ai, even against overwhelming information that it is occurring, and documented by the same EU that you so strongly support otherwise.
No evidence ever presented. Should we be surprised?
And just to drive the message home to you:
"He recalled that GCHQ was rather unimpressed. The encounter revealed that the US case was primarily political rather than technical. So GCHQ stuck to their guns, as did the prime minister at first, Darroch explained."
Can I now say that AT&T and the UK government are now part of the US government because they changed their reasoned decisions?
The US fears that China will overtake it in the technology realm. That's it.
LOL.
You still are unable to understand the difference between companies in China and companies in the West; it's almost like you are in denial...
Sure, Western Governments shape policy, but they aren't involved in the day to day operation of businesses, nor are these businesses staffed with party members, and operated by party controlled union groups, as they are in China.
Presumably, you have worked in the West before, so you should be able to figure that out.
What is it with you and Huawei anyway? It seems an, unhealthy, attachment.
I'm in denial?
That's rich!
Look. You just veer off topic with the same anti China line over and over again. And now you imply I have some kind of issue? LOL.
There is nothing with 'me and Huawei'.
I just know a lot about the company (and Apple!) and its products. I try to comment on things I know about and stay away from stuff I'm not so knowledgeable of. Samsung could pop up somewhere here and you'll see nary a peep from me because I just don't know Samsung all that well.
As for 'shaping policy' , you seem to have brushed over my subtle point that it is the US that has been trying to shape the policy of sovereign nations for literally decades now and yes, via methods most foul too, but that has little to do with technology does it?
When it comes to the issue under discussion in this thread you literally have nothing to counter what I've pointed out because, by and large, what I have stated is fact, and largely supported by comments from the US administration itself. Especially when Trump was free to tweet his thoughts on an hourly basis.
You're gonna have to accept that.
The US is hellbent on slowing China down because future economic growth is going to be very technology related. Far more than it is now and the US is not well placed to keep pace with China. All its moves have been late and very poorly planned. Starting with 5G. It completely missed the boat.
Okay, keep going with that...
Don't let actual facts hit you in the backside...
Comparing china to THE global super power responsible likely for over half of the world's current population, due in part to the security of trade - allowing every nation to securely trade with each other. The result of which was the most peaceful period of the human race with more people lifted out of poverty than ever before. The sole power responsible for the information age.
Now come the chinese, a culture of which has never had a political regime last longer than 47 years, sans the current one which not only enslaves millions of their people because they're muslim, but harvests organs of prisoners --- prisoners whose only crime was practicing yoga.
At the end of WW2, the US could have owned the world. Instead, it allowed both friend and foe alike to rebuild themselves into the modern world we know today, not only funding the rebuilding, but opening up US markets for them to trade with. Look at JP, DE, and IT today.... Meanwhile look at the former soviet states -- they want nothing to do with russia.
Oh, and China's economy isn't growing like it had. Doesn't look like China will catch up or exceed the U.S., and its population will likely collapse over the next 40 years.
Well done!
You are now presenting comments from random internet posters to back up your off topic claims.
As recently as this week one of the biggest US semi-conductor associations (SIA) made an official statement on the CHIPS act and pushed for more of the outlay to go towards R&D, acknowledging that the semiconductor industry burns through funds like there is no tomorrow and the amounts earmarked for future development will be used up very quickly.
Of course, not being able to do good business with the number one market for its clients' products is hurting to the tune of billions. Then there is the fact that other (Chinese and non-Chinese) clients are actively working to eradicate US technology from supply chains and you get an idea of what the future of the US tech industry looks like.
Why do business with companies whose government has no issues weaponising their technology?
Surely even you can see that angle?
But just in case...
"That hurts semiconductor companies like Nvidia, which makes graphics chips used to run A.I. applications in China and elsewhere. The Silicon Valley company, already suffering from a sharp sales decline for video game applications, recently estimated that the U.S. restrictions would probably reduce revenues in its current quarter by about $400 million.
The sanctions may bite even harder at companies that sell chip-making equipment, which relied heavily in recent years on sales to Chinese factories.
Lam Research, which produces tools that etch silicon wafers to make chips, estimated that the China limitations would reduce its 2023 revenue by $2 billion to $2.5 billion. “We lost some very profitable customers in the China region, and that’s going to persist,” Doug Bettinger, Lam’s chief financial officer, said during an earnings call last week.
Applied Materials, the biggest maker of chip manufacturing tools, also said sales would suffer because of the restrictions. On Wednesday, another maker of chip manufacturing tools, KLA, said its revenue next year was likely to shrink by $600 million to $900 million as it reduces equipment sales and services to some customers in China"
If only China wasn't weaponizing all of this technology, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
The promise of the blockade of technology to China, is to prevent Xi from growing the economy at the expense of the West, which has already slowed due to COVID, and the collapsing real estate market, and to prevent the PLA from increasing the lethality of its weapons, especially through AI. These blockades may not work indefinitely, but they only need to be successful through the end of the decade for the West to prepare against an increasing militant China. It also means the China will have to increasingly spend more on R&D to keep up with the West.
Funny how authoritarians are so fond of taking hostages, for later negotiations, but either way, those hostages, the human rights violations, and the repression of Hong Kong turned the tide agains Huawei and China. Epic fuckup on Xi's part, as it Xi didn't want a more insular and self sufficient China anyway.
As for the whinging of the semi-conductor supply chain, it is temporary, and supply chain will only increase outside of China, buy you knew that.
As for the comment that I posted above, it provides a historical context. that you fuckers in the EU have been coasting on your National Defense spending, and always depend on the U.S. to come to the rescue when some aggressor, aka Russia decides to threaten or invade. More than that, the EU, as well as the rest of the world benefits from the U.S. Navy providing freedom of navigation that is the basis of global trade.
Now if we can just get the EU to stop trading democracy for exports, we might actually end up in a great place.
Well, the EU is also de-Americanising so don't expect much from that but then again, the entire industry is de-Americanising so you'll have to live with that.
Trump pulled the trigger but the bullet hasn't hit yet. Pointing a big finger at non-US companies and telling them 'you can't sell your products to other non-US companies without a US granted licence' is not the way you generate trust. The US is a technologically toxic market now.
The semiconductor industry isn't 'whinging' about it, it is worried about its future (which now depends more and more on government funding) because it can't sell to its largest market. It has seen share prices slashed, revenues severely impacted, R&D reduced, and worst of all, new competitors rising on the horizon in every area of the semi conductor supply chain.
It is far from a 'temporary' situation because those new competitors will be undercutting US technology in the long run.
It is estimated that the US lost 11 billion dollars in revenues from Huawei alone in the first year of sanctions. Think about it. That's just one company.
LOL.
You keep posting like you think that China is in a great position in this, and that the U.S.. It isn't, and even the EU is distancing itself from China, slowly but surely, and thanks to Russia, a partner of China, invading Ukraine, China is even worse off with the West. Then you have Iran, another partner of Russia, playing out a potential realignment to a secular government. Authoritarians just can't win anymore. Xi is literally reversing the progress that China made earlier.
As for the "billions" in losses of Huawei's revenue, sadly, Huawei is losing even worse than that, completely losing its one time, and short term, dominance in smartphones, even in China. But hey, China and Russia are still well regarded in the Global South, for now anyway.
Do you really think that China will be able to compete with the U.S. and its allies in semiconductors in the decade? They are literally 4 generations behind, and haven't the supply chain internally, so will have to develop that from scratch.
Do you think that the U.S. and the West aren't planning on competing head to head with China on 6G? They have learned their lessons too.
What percentage of world processor output is on cutting edge nodes?
Your 'four generations ahead' claim is ridiculous and meaningless when you take that into account.
I can tell you exactly where Huawei is going in the short term in processor terms: chip stacking.
They have developed a new - cheaper - chip stacking technology as a stop gap measure while the entire supply chain gets rejigged.
Where will China be after ten years of semiconductor self sufficiency efforts? That is impossible to know. However, they will be far closer to their goals than had the US not tried to destroy the global semiconductor supply chain. That is a given. It is also a given that in ten years there will be less US semiconductor influence worldwide because companies are already looking for ways to erradicate US choke points!
6G? That is at least 8 years away and Huawei is actively developing for it. In fact, the US has already had to backtrack on its Huawei sanctions just to be able to get a seat at standards meetings! Such great planning, eh?
Before that, we will see 5.5G and the US will not have much influence there either. Huawei has already resolved the current 5G choke point on 5G ICT equipment.
And the west will not 'compete' with China on 6G. 6G will be a standard! Lots of players will be involved in agreeing that standard. Chinese players included.
LOL.
You are still in denial. If the U.S. blockage of leading edge technology wasn't a big deal, then surely Huawei would have retained its marketshare in phones. They literally had their phone business destroyed. You can't even accept that. But by all means, China should develop its own alternatives, just as the West should develop alternatives to Huawei and ZTE.
As for Huawei, if there is one thing that the world is learning from Russia's invasion, and from China's threats to Taiwan, relying on critical resources or infrastructure from your adversaries is fraught with risk.
I restate. If China wasn't the threat that it is to the existing rules of order, you and I wouldn't be having this conversation. That's on them.
Can we allow our 5G critical infrastructure to be built with technology provided by a company that is private on paper but ultimately answerable to the Chinese communist party state?” would resonate with the German public once asked forcefully.
Yeah, why aren't you advocating for the EU to have more skin in the game and build their own telecom technological base?
Crickets...
Then this;
Germany and China's COSCO
The investment "disproportionately expands China's strategic influence on German and European transport infrastructure as well as Germany's dependence on China", the document, seen by Reuters, says. It points to "considerable risks that arise when elements of the European transport infrastructure are influenced and controlled by China - while China itself does not allow Germany to participate in Chinese ports".
In the event of a crisis, the acquisition would open up the possibility for China to politically instrumentalise part of Germany's as well as Europe's critical infrastructure, it says. The economy ministry and the four ministries led by the liberal Free Democrats joined in drawing up the note, according to the sources.
‘Cosco proudly points out that there is a political commissar on each of his ships & 83% of employees working abroad are party members. The 'red engine' is a competitive advantage.
First off, no one said it wasn't a big deal.
Remember those billions that the US semiconductor industry is bleeding? It is a huge deal.
An industry that absolutely wants to do business with Huawei.
Second. The industry and Huawei had the rug pulled out from under their feet.
It takes time to rejig supply lines and recreate software services. That is happening right now.
It has been suggested that Huawei will return to its two flagship per year release cycle in 2023.
It is expanding its cloud hardware/software business. It is growing its automotive division. Providing 5G services for industry (ports, mining, health, science, aviation, rail, farming etc). Putting even more resources into PV solutions. Leveraging it's patent portfolio.
There is a lot going on.
At the same time it is investing in the semiconductor industry.
That's all technology related.
Huawei is not China. What China and Germany may or may not agree is trade and politics. Not relevant here.
But hey! Why not answer the questions I asked instead of scurrying off to irrelevant points.
Come on! The answer is easy. How much of the world's semiconductor output is on cutting edge nodes?
Why do I need to answer your questions? You have an obvious bias for China/Huawei as do I have a bias for democracy.
More to the point, why don't you accept that this is primarily about National Security? Are you unable to see that?
That has been debunked over and over again and I gave you a link right here in this thread that touched that full on.
The US provided zero evidence of national security risks to anyone. It never has. GCHQ didn't buy it either. Huawei offered to licence its entire 5G stack to a US company or consortium, including source code. The whole damn thing! It wasn't accepted. Why? Because national security isn't the issue here. Technology is.
US representatives had to literally shout their orders relative to Huawei and 5G for five hours solid to the UK government which refused to budge until the US finally pulled the rug out from under everyone's feet by creating a situation in which the UK government thought that Huawei might not be able to source the required components for the roll out.
You propose something to a supposed 'ally' that you have a supposed 'special relationship' with. You offer up zero evidence to support your claims and when they snub you and support the snub with real evidence, you literally force them to bow down to your orders. Is that authoritarian?
That move cost its dear 'friend' billions in rip and replace along with a major strategic delay in getting 5G into industry. Ah! And no trade deal for that dear friend either!
And in the end Huawei has showed no signs of not actually fulfilling its contractual obligations in Europe, Asia Pacific, near and Middle East, Latin America and Africa. Russia is on hold for multilateral sanctions.
So, whenever you mention the 'west' what you really mean is the area comprised of a few countries. A tiny part of Huawei's world trade. Even today it is still bigger than Nokia and Ericsson combined in terms of ICT and still ranks number one in 5G infrastructure.
Yes, there are huge problems to be dealt with but they have geopolitical roots, not technical roots. There is no doubt in anyone's mind that China will resolve those technical problems sooner than if the US had not done anything. Absolutely zero doubt of that.
In terms of problems though, it is the US which has made a rod for its own back and there is no turning back on that. The bullet has been fired. The US is now regarded as an untrustworthy technological partner. That is an insurmountable problem.
The latest sanctions have actually worsened the situation as they directly impact US citizens working for Chinese companies. Now even US employees are considered toxic.
The rest of the world was already working to reduce dependencies on non-sovereign technology. That was one of the goals set out in the creation of the EU processor initiative which was created long before the US even realised it needed a CHIPS act. However, that was at a government level and would use both government and private funding to achieve its goals.
After seeing their businesses severely impacted through unilateral, extraterritorial US sanctions, non-US companies have accelerated their plans to remove dependencies on US technology.
Even you should be able to see the outcome of those actions. The US can only do what it is currently doing because its technology sold into the global supply chain. It is now trying to fragment that supply chain unilaterally. No one will want to buy from companies it cannot rely on because of government actions.
Lastly, the question you refuse to answer. The world does not turn on cutting edge processes. It never has! The world turns on stable, mature process nodes. That is why virtually none of the world's semiconductor output is on cutting edge technology.
The recent shortage of chips across the world's supply chains was NOT a shortage of cutting edge chips. Please get that into your head!
That is why the latest round (and late being the right word here) of sanctions against companies wanting to sell technology to China are focused on much older equipment, not the minority, latest, greatest and of course, most expensive nodes.
The potential knock on effect here is that the world depends on China for the finished products and fiddling with those older process nodes could have gigantic effects on trade worldwide. Yet another reason why companies want out (and as quickly as possible!) on US dependency. Of course, even the US administration finally saw that bullet going its way and had to quickly issue 'exceptions' to certain companies with business in China.
TSMC has said it. ASML has said it. ASMI has said it. Everyone knows it. The US approach will fail.
Technically it has already failed as it has only served to highlight the issues of technology dependencies. Now the world is accelerating plans to eradicate US dependencies. China is obviously leading that pack. US semiconductor businesses are bleeding green to the tune of billions. Billions needed for R&D.
All you have been able to offer up is your usual hatred of China (politics which has no place here) and say it is all 'temporary'.
You obviously don't want to acknowledge what is happening.
The US has taken unprecedented steps to limit the sale of advanced computer chips to China, escalating efforts to contain Beijing’s tech and military ambitions.
The moves are designed to cut off supplies of critical technology to China that may be used across sectors including advanced computing and weapons manufacture.
The crackdown marks the most significant action by Washington against Beijing on technology exports in decades, escalating a trade battle between the world’s two most powerful economies.
After the export controls, Apple reportedly put on hold plans to use memory chips from China’s Yangtze Memory Technologies in its products. The Nikkei newspaper said Apple had planned to use the chips in iPhones sold in China
The export curbs will include high-end computing chips, such as NVIDIA’s A100/H100 and Intel’s GPU (Ponte Vecchio), according to Brady Wang, associate director of Counterpoint research in Hong Kong. The rules, some of which go into effect immediately, build on restrictions sent in letters earlier this year to top toolmakers KLA, Lam Research and Applied Materials, requiring them to halt shipments of equipment to wholly Chinese-owned factories producing advanced logic chips.
The US department of commerce said the export controls “restrict [China’s] ability to obtain advanced computing chips, develop and maintain supercomputers, and manufacture advanced semiconductors”.
How significant are the curbs?
The chip ban was described by the seasoned China analyst Bill Bishop as a “massive escalation” in the rumbling trade and geopolitical tensions between the US and China. “We are all still trying to understand the impacts of the new controls,” he said in his Sinocism newsletter, “and frankly I think many underestimate just how significant they are, both for technology supply chains and future developments but more broadly for the US-China relationship”.
The international research firm GlobalData said the US announcement “transcends the semiconductor industry” and was about nothing less than the leadership of the world economy. “This is about [artificial intelligence] dominance,” said Josep Bori, the firm’s thematic research director, “which underpins what many call the fifth industrial revolution, and, ultimately, about global economic leadership in the next few decades.”
You continue ignoring the military implications fo AI and advanced semiconductors in weapons. That this is an attempt to hobble China's military ambitions is pretty obvious, but it is also a fact that China's major push in AI has been to date for surveillance. China doesn't actually have much other tech leadership in the world.
This development has unsettled observers of China’s semiconductor industry who worry that SMIC’s manufacturing capabilities now outstrip those of most American producers and are approaching those of leading global foundries. Although node size is only one variable among many, China’s new 7nm chips could enable the production of more advanced electronics, including everything from supercomputers to state-of-the-art military equipment. In the weeks following the release of Tech Insights’ report, the Department of Commerce notifiedall U.S. semiconductor equipment manufacturers that it would widen export bans on gear used to make anything smaller than 14nm chips, including tools that enabled SMIC’s breakthrough; it appears that Washington is shifting from a strategy of slowing down China’s future tech development to degrading its existing capabilities.
All of this is to impede China's ability to fab at 14nm and below. China's 7nm production is very inefficient, using a DUV process with multiple patterning vs a EUV process with single patterning. The U.S. will work to prevent EUV sales to China. All of the newest fabs, and the planned fabs in the U.S. at 5nm and smaller will use EUV.
What is left out, making this graph grossly misleading, is the context of the value of the wafers at the leading edge. This is where TSMC, followed by Samsung, and less so, Intel reside. It should also be noted that most of the design for these nodes occurs in the U.S.
The EU will have difficulty introducing leading edge nodes if they are not a primary designer of the silicon that is fabbed.
China at 14.4% has a mere rounding error of "leading edge" capacity at an inefficient version of 7nm, and is blocked by the U.S. and its allies from obtaining the equipment and building the supply chain necessary to compete.
It anything, Apple has ridden the wave of TSMC success, while providing the bulk of its revenues to continue that.
Context?
How much of the world's wafer output corresponds to cutting edge nodes?
Less than 2%? And falling?
By your argument, sanctions on sales of advanced semiconductor manufacturing technology to China are of little concern...and yet, that is a real and significant imposition on China's growth, isn't it.
Fun facts;
California is set to surpass Germany as the world's fourth largest economy;
The concern is related to the damage the US is doing to its own industry. That is self harm.
US semi-conductor interests have taken a huge hit due to these unilateral extra-territorial sanctions.
In market value loss, the damage has been huge. In a more direct context the damage has also been huge. Lost revenues.
How is the industry supposed to move forward if it can't sell into its largest market? How is it supposed to generate funding for R&D?
Applied Research and NVIDIA will each take a $400mn hit in just one quarter.
And to make matters worse, the whole policy only serves to accelerate the inevitable. Chinese technological progress. Remember. No policymaker has ever mentioned 'stopping' China's progress. Simply slowing it down. Well, there is a short term and long term reading of that but the consensus is clear. China will get there.
Worse still, non-US interests have also been impacted because the rugs have been pulled out from under their feet. As a result, US technology is toxic to them and they are working to get it out of their products.
With the latest 'sanctions' it is actually worse because employees with US citizenship are probably going to lose their jobs at Chinese companies.
An executive at a Chinese semi-conductor company:
“Now we are not just trying to build up ‘US-free’ manufacturing lines but also de-Americanise the teams,” said the executive.
That's from a paywalled FT article.
Let's be clear, absolutely ALL semi-conductor companies want to do business with Chinese companies. Bar none.
Having to halt sales simply because their products contain a tiny amount of US technology has opened their eyes to extra-territorial interference. The same applies to government.
Everyone is reducing their dependence on US technology.
How does that look for US interests? Bread for today but hunger for tomorrow?
Then we have to deal with the completely crackpot ideas of some prominent US representatives. What you are about to read must have come from people who are literally detached from the real world.
They want Biden to interfere in Chinese sovereign activities on Chinese soil.
Read to believe! (and they are citing Bloomberg - yikes!)
"Dear President Biden,
We call on the administration to take immediate action to halt Huawei’s attempt to build the Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Company (PXW) semiconductor foundry. This Huawei-aligned foundry is designed to fatally undermine the U.S. strategy to counter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) bid to dominate global 5G markets and strengthen its intelligence and repression apparatus.
Bloomberg recently published evidence that Huawei began construction over seven months ago on a factory where PXW is expected to eventually mass produce chips as advanced as 14 nanometers and 7 nanometers. Almost all of these chips are expected to be sold to Huawei, and PXW reportedly has already ordered the advanced equipment necessary to build these chips. This would represent a dangerous leap in Chinese semiconductor manufacturing, as Chinese chipmakers have thus far only been able to produce 7-nanometer chips in limited quantities. With these new chips for its base stations, Huawei could resume its march towards 5G market dominance, and the CCP will advance its plan to control global telecommunications and extend its economic espionage and repression."
Not a word about 'national security' there. Just 5G dominance (commercial and technological interests). The espionage line is just more craziness.
LOL!
Uhm, "economic espionage and repression" are in fact valid National Security issues.
You are free to believe what you want, and for fuck sake, why would anyone want Huawei to "resume its march towards 5G market dominance".
Blackburn wants President Biden to step in and block delivery of any advanced equipment that has been ordered from the West for PXW. More to the point, why is anyone allowing advanced equipment sales to China at this point in time. I agree with that action. China is a threat to Taiwan.
According to Bloomberg sources, the Chinese tech conglomerate is now supporting a small startup ordering equipment for a semiconductor manufacturing plant. Purportedly, the new semiconductor plant, called Pengxinwei IC Manufacturing Co. (known as PXW) and run by a former Huawei executive, will be built close to the Huawei headquarters as it is expected to be the plant’s biggest customer, buying “most, if not all, of its output.”
If successful, this would allow Huawei to regain its footing and begin producing devices in earnest again. However, it remains to be seen if PXW will violate U.S. trade sanctions in supplying Huawei, as that would limit what equipment can be purchased by the company. Moreover, it is reported that the company’s first products, expected in 2025, will be on 28-nanometer technology leaving the plant six or more generations behind.
Given the accusations and evidence against Huawei, it will be difficult for any company to affiliate with the denylisted organization. Some of the U.S. restrictions may extend to this new company and prevent PXW from getting off the ground. However, if not, it still sounds like Huawei will be comparatively stuck in the stone age of semiconductors for a little while.
China continues to be a threat to the West and the existing rules of order. That's on Xi and his play for absolute power in China.
Fucking Europeans. Schotz will probably allow China's COSCO to own a portion of port facilities, even though his ministers are telling him no. When will they learn...
Huawei already has 5G dominance. Where have you been? Even now, it leads the market and has already 'de-Americanised' its ICT 5G product stack. It is now simply building out capacity.
China has no recent history of direct meddling in sovereign states through military action. It considers Taiwan part of China but apart from that there is no outward threat that has been singled out to the rest of the world.
'Repression' has nothing to do with US national security.
Apart from US 'sanctions' the rest of the world is eager to sell its technology to China. Yes, ASML and all the US tech industry included. Let that sink in.
You say you don't know why anyone would want to sell advanced tech to China. You are in a very small minority. The CEO of ASML has said more than once that the US approach will not work. Weaponising technology, forcing breakage of international supply lines and forcing sovereign nations to follow US orders or else has been a wake up call to the tech world.
There is nothing anyone is doing with the foundry equipment at that new site that contravenes US sanctions. Do you think ASML et al would risk that?
However, that said, US EDA software makers have said that they would rather Chinese companies 'cracked' their software than see a Chinese rival emerge from the sanctions. Too late for that I'm afraid as that ball is already rolling too.
The request to Biden just goes to show how out of touch with reality those folks are. Try to imagine things the other way around?
It is crazy.
Huawei alone has invested in over 40 semiconductor companies with the aim of rejigging its supply lines (all of them in detriment to US semiconductor industries).
China’s ‘secret police stations’ in UK must be investigated, say MPs
London and Glasgow claimed to be among list of operations to target critics and dissidents
China has been doing this around the world for quite some time. Have to make sure the diaspora don't forget who their bosses are. More than that, the influence operations that China conducts.
You might want to post about that, with your first hand knowledge and alll.
Absolutely nothing to do with technology and my knowledge of China is far less than that of the US and I'm definitely not involved with the Chinese Police. LOL.
Stay on topic!
I never stated that you were involved with the Chinese police, but you have an affection for Huawei, and a defense of China's authoritarianism that is exceptional for AI posters. It blinds you to all of the harm that China has done, and will do, to the world, which is why I am a proponent of constraining China.
As I noted, the Western world is no longer enamored with China, and is resisting China's authoritarian impulse to change the current rules of order that have been the basis for an effective global economy since the end of WWII.
Perhaps if Huawei wasn't so closely linked with the CPC, I might give you more leeway in your views. Alas, China is Huawei, and Huawei is China.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
I have never defended authoritarian governments.
I know a lot about Huawei.
That knowledge allows me point out inaccuracies in what many people spout off about the company. Most of which are about as far from the truth as they can get, and you yourself have been found wanting over and over again.
The western world was never enamored with China in the first place. The western world as you put it and China are basically trading and investment partners. If anything the opposite of what you claim is true as China is pushing development and trading links with Africa and Latin America. The US started an ill thought out trade war with China, in part, to force China to do even more business with it.
If we put the focus on Huawei and the rest of the world, it's the same story. Watch the Huawei Connect 2022 video from this very month in Paris with members of all the big companies and EU parliament members in attendance to see what's happening here.
Huawei is not China any more than any big US tech company is the The U.S.A. Get over it.
That statement is factually incorrect, if not an outright lie on your part, and you know it's a lie, because you live in the West, where we have a nominal free press. That free press does not exist in China, so how would you verify anything that Huawei states? You can't
China has often been criticized for a lack of transparency, especially with regard to its economic and trade policies. While in many cases these criticisms are valid, it belies the fact that in other instances, China is remarkably open and transparent about its intentions and ambitions.
Such is the case with China’s “Opinion on Strengthening the United Front Work of the Private Economy in the New Era,” recently released by the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (and further elaborated on by President Xi Jinping himself). This document tells us in no uncertain terms that Chinese private companies will be increasingly called upon to conduct their operations in tight coordination with governmental policy objectives and ideologies. The rest of the world should take note.
A Different Vision of “Private” Business
The 5,000 word “opinion” aims to ratchet-up the role and influence of the CCP within the private sector in order “to better focus the wisdom and strength of the private businesspeople on the goal and mission to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” The objective is to establish a “united front” between business and government and facilitate the “enhancement of the party’s leadership over the private economy.” According to the plan, “private economic figures are to be more closely united around the party,” thereby achieving “a high degree of consistency with the Party Central Committee on political stand, political direction, political principles, and political roads.”
Contrast that with the free market;
All of this stands in stark contrast to long-accepted concepts of how private companies function in a free market. The overriding purpose of business, according to these traditional precepts, is to earn profits through the provision of value-added products and services, in response to marketplace signals and under the constraint of basic economic realities. Government ideology plays no role in that equation.
For the most part, Western governments only regulate private business, for a variety of reasons including National Security, but they are almost never directly involved in the operation of those businesses, and certainly not anything like the CPC is involved in businesses such as Huawei, which are part and parcel of their state security apparatus.
Ultimately, the current marketplace between the West and China has become distorted, and this coincides with Xi era of China rolling back freedoms enjoyed by the Chinese people. You seem to place the blame squarely on the West, when in fact, Xi's complete control of the Chinese government is an obvious issue in the West, as noted by the PEW poll that I posted earlier.
As for your statement that you do not defend authoritarian governments, I have seen a number of your previous statements in denial of China's human rights violations, posted here on Ai, even against overwhelming information that it is occurring, and documented by the same EU that you so strongly support otherwise.
No evidence ever presented. Should we be surprised?
And just to drive the message home to you:
"He recalled that GCHQ was rather unimpressed. The encounter revealed that the US case was primarily political rather than technical. So GCHQ stuck to their guns, as did the prime minister at first, Darroch explained."
Can I now say that AT&T and the UK government are now part of the US government because they changed their reasoned decisions?
The US fears that China will overtake it in the technology realm. That's it.
LOL.
You still are unable to understand the difference between companies in China and companies in the West; it's almost like you are in denial...
Sure, Western Governments shape policy, but they aren't involved in the day to day operation of businesses, nor are these businesses staffed with party members, and operated by party controlled union groups, as they are in China.
Presumably, you have worked in the West before, so you should be able to figure that out.
What is it with you and Huawei anyway? It seems an, unhealthy, attachment.
I'm in denial?
That's rich!
Look. You just veer off topic with the same anti China line over and over again. And now you imply I have some kind of issue? LOL.
There is nothing with 'me and Huawei'.
I just know a lot about the company (and Apple!) and its products. I try to comment on things I know about and stay away from stuff I'm not so knowledgeable of. Samsung could pop up somewhere here and you'll see nary a peep from me because I just don't know Samsung all that well.
As for 'shaping policy' , you seem to have brushed over my subtle point that it is the US that has been trying to shape the policy of sovereign nations for literally decades now and yes, via methods most foul too, but that has little to do with technology does it?
When it comes to the issue under discussion in this thread you literally have nothing to counter what I've pointed out because, by and large, what I have stated is fact, and largely supported by comments from the US administration itself. Especially when Trump was free to tweet his thoughts on an hourly basis.
You're gonna have to accept that.
The US is hellbent on slowing China down because future economic growth is going to be very technology related. Far more than it is now and the US is not well placed to keep pace with China. All its moves have been late and very poorly planned. Starting with 5G. It completely missed the boat.
Okay, keep going with that...
Don't let actual facts hit you in the backside...
Comparing china to THE global super power responsible likely for over half of the world's current population, due in part to the security of trade - allowing every nation to securely trade with each other. The result of which was the most peaceful period of the human race with more people lifted out of poverty than ever before. The sole power responsible for the information age.
Now come the chinese, a culture of which has never had a political regime last longer than 47 years, sans the current one which not only enslaves millions of their people because they're muslim, but harvests organs of prisoners --- prisoners whose only crime was practicing yoga.
At the end of WW2, the US could have owned the world. Instead, it allowed both friend and foe alike to rebuild themselves into the modern world we know today, not only funding the rebuilding, but opening up US markets for them to trade with. Look at JP, DE, and IT today.... Meanwhile look at the former soviet states -- they want nothing to do with russia.
Oh, and China's economy isn't growing like it had. Doesn't look like China will catch up or exceed the U.S., and its population will likely collapse over the next 40 years.
Well done!
You are now presenting comments from random internet posters to back up your off topic claims.
As recently as this week one of the biggest US semi-conductor associations (SIA) made an official statement on the CHIPS act and pushed for more of the outlay to go towards R&D, acknowledging that the semiconductor industry burns through funds like there is no tomorrow and the amounts earmarked for future development will be used up very quickly.
Of course, not being able to do good business with the number one market for its clients' products is hurting to the tune of billions. Then there is the fact that other (Chinese and non-Chinese) clients are actively working to eradicate US technology from supply chains and you get an idea of what the future of the US tech industry looks like.
Why do business with companies whose government has no issues weaponising their technology?
Surely even you can see that angle?
But just in case...
"That hurts semiconductor companies like Nvidia, which makes graphics chips used to run A.I. applications in China and elsewhere. The Silicon Valley company, already suffering from a sharp sales decline for video game applications, recently estimated that the U.S. restrictions would probably reduce revenues in its current quarter by about $400 million.
The sanctions may bite even harder at companies that sell chip-making equipment, which relied heavily in recent years on sales to Chinese factories.
Lam Research, which produces tools that etch silicon wafers to make chips, estimated that the China limitations would reduce its 2023 revenue by $2 billion to $2.5 billion. “We lost some very profitable customers in the China region, and that’s going to persist,” Doug Bettinger, Lam’s chief financial officer, said during an earnings call last week.
Applied Materials, the biggest maker of chip manufacturing tools, also said sales would suffer because of the restrictions. On Wednesday, another maker of chip manufacturing tools, KLA, said its revenue next year was likely to shrink by $600 million to $900 million as it reduces equipment sales and services to some customers in China"
If only China wasn't weaponizing all of this technology, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
The promise of the blockade of technology to China, is to prevent Xi from growing the economy at the expense of the West, which has already slowed due to COVID, and the collapsing real estate market, and to prevent the PLA from increasing the lethality of its weapons, especially through AI. These blockades may not work indefinitely, but they only need to be successful through the end of the decade for the West to prepare against an increasing militant China. It also means the China will have to increasingly spend more on R&D to keep up with the West.
Funny how authoritarians are so fond of taking hostages, for later negotiations, but either way, those hostages, the human rights violations, and the repression of Hong Kong turned the tide agains Huawei and China. Epic fuckup on Xi's part, as it Xi didn't want a more insular and self sufficient China anyway.
As for the whinging of the semi-conductor supply chain, it is temporary, and supply chain will only increase outside of China, buy you knew that.
As for the comment that I posted above, it provides a historical context. that you fuckers in the EU have been coasting on your National Defense spending, and always depend on the U.S. to come to the rescue when some aggressor, aka Russia decides to threaten or invade. More than that, the EU, as well as the rest of the world benefits from the U.S. Navy providing freedom of navigation that is the basis of global trade.
Now if we can just get the EU to stop trading democracy for exports, we might actually end up in a great place.
Well, the EU is also de-Americanising so don't expect much from that but then again, the entire industry is de-Americanising so you'll have to live with that.
Trump pulled the trigger but the bullet hasn't hit yet. Pointing a big finger at non-US companies and telling them 'you can't sell your products to other non-US companies without a US granted licence' is not the way you generate trust. The US is a technologically toxic market now.
The semiconductor industry isn't 'whinging' about it, it is worried about its future (which now depends more and more on government funding) because it can't sell to its largest market. It has seen share prices slashed, revenues severely impacted, R&D reduced, and worst of all, new competitors rising on the horizon in every area of the semi conductor supply chain.
It is far from a 'temporary' situation because those new competitors will be undercutting US technology in the long run.
It is estimated that the US lost 11 billion dollars in revenues from Huawei alone in the first year of sanctions. Think about it. That's just one company.
LOL.
You keep posting like you think that China is in a great position in this, and that the U.S.. It isn't, and even the EU is distancing itself from China, slowly but surely, and thanks to Russia, a partner of China, invading Ukraine, China is even worse off with the West. Then you have Iran, another partner of Russia, playing out a potential realignment to a secular government. Authoritarians just can't win anymore. Xi is literally reversing the progress that China made earlier.
As for the "billions" in losses of Huawei's revenue, sadly, Huawei is losing even worse than that, completely losing its one time, and short term, dominance in smartphones, even in China. But hey, China and Russia are still well regarded in the Global South, for now anyway.
Do you really think that China will be able to compete with the U.S. and its allies in semiconductors in the decade? They are literally 4 generations behind, and haven't the supply chain internally, so will have to develop that from scratch.
Do you think that the U.S. and the West aren't planning on competing head to head with China on 6G? They have learned their lessons too.
What percentage of world processor output is on cutting edge nodes?
Your 'four generations ahead' claim is ridiculous and meaningless when you take that into account.
I can tell you exactly where Huawei is going in the short term in processor terms: chip stacking.
They have developed a new - cheaper - chip stacking technology as a stop gap measure while the entire supply chain gets rejigged.
Where will China be after ten years of semiconductor self sufficiency efforts? That is impossible to know. However, they will be far closer to their goals than had the US not tried to destroy the global semiconductor supply chain. That is a given. It is also a given that in ten years there will be less US semiconductor influence worldwide because companies are already looking for ways to erradicate US choke points!
6G? That is at least 8 years away and Huawei is actively developing for it. In fact, the US has already had to backtrack on its Huawei sanctions just to be able to get a seat at standards meetings! Such great planning, eh?
Before that, we will see 5.5G and the US will not have much influence there either. Huawei has already resolved the current 5G choke point on 5G ICT equipment.
And the west will not 'compete' with China on 6G. 6G will be a standard! Lots of players will be involved in agreeing that standard. Chinese players included.
LOL.
You are still in denial. If the U.S. blockage of leading edge technology wasn't a big deal, then surely Huawei would have retained its marketshare in phones. They literally had their phone business destroyed. You can't even accept that. But by all means, China should develop its own alternatives, just as the West should develop alternatives to Huawei and ZTE.
As for Huawei, if there is one thing that the world is learning from Russia's invasion, and from China's threats to Taiwan, relying on critical resources or infrastructure from your adversaries is fraught with risk.
I restate. If China wasn't the threat that it is to the existing rules of order, you and I wouldn't be having this conversation. That's on them.
Can we allow our 5G critical infrastructure to be built with technology provided by a company that is private on paper but ultimately answerable to the Chinese communist party state?” would resonate with the German public once asked forcefully.
Yeah, why aren't you advocating for the EU to have more skin in the game and build their own telecom technological base?
Crickets...
Then this;
Germany and China's COSCO
The investment "disproportionately expands China's strategic influence on German and European transport infrastructure as well as Germany's dependence on China", the document, seen by Reuters, says. It points to "considerable risks that arise when elements of the European transport infrastructure are influenced and controlled by China - while China itself does not allow Germany to participate in Chinese ports".
In the event of a crisis, the acquisition would open up the possibility for China to politically instrumentalise part of Germany's as well as Europe's critical infrastructure, it says. The economy ministry and the four ministries led by the liberal Free Democrats joined in drawing up the note, according to the sources.
‘Cosco proudly points out that there is a political commissar on each of his ships & 83% of employees working abroad are party members. The 'red engine' is a competitive advantage.
First off, no one said it wasn't a big deal.
Remember those billions that the US semiconductor industry is bleeding? It is a huge deal.
An industry that absolutely wants to do business with Huawei.
Second. The industry and Huawei had the rug pulled out from under their feet.
It takes time to rejig supply lines and recreate software services. That is happening right now.
It has been suggested that Huawei will return to its two flagship per year release cycle in 2023.
It is expanding its cloud hardware/software business. It is growing its automotive division. Providing 5G services for industry (ports, mining, health, science, aviation, rail, farming etc). Putting even more resources into PV solutions. Leveraging it's patent portfolio.
There is a lot going on.
At the same time it is investing in the semiconductor industry.
That's all technology related.
Huawei is not China. What China and Germany may or may not agree is trade and politics. Not relevant here.
But hey! Why not answer the questions I asked instead of scurrying off to irrelevant points.
Come on! The answer is easy. How much of the world's semiconductor output is on cutting edge nodes?
Why do I need to answer your questions? You have an obvious bias for China/Huawei as do I have a bias for democracy.
More to the point, why don't you accept that this is primarily about National Security? Are you unable to see that?
That has been debunked over and over again and I gave you a link right here in this thread that touched that full on.
The US provided zero evidence of national security risks to anyone. It never has. GCHQ didn't buy it either. Huawei offered to licence its entire 5G stack to a US company or consortium, including source code. The whole damn thing! It wasn't accepted. Why? Because national security isn't the issue here. Technology is.
US representatives had to literally shout their orders relative to Huawei and 5G for five hours solid to the UK government which refused to budge until the US finally pulled the rug out from under everyone's feet by creating a situation in which the UK government thought that Huawei might not be able to source the required components for the roll out.
You propose something to a supposed 'ally' that you have a supposed 'special relationship' with. You offer up zero evidence to support your claims and when they snub you and support the snub with real evidence, you literally force them to bow down to your orders. Is that authoritarian?
That move cost its dear 'friend' billions in rip and replace along with a major strategic delay in getting 5G into industry. Ah! And no trade deal for that dear friend either!
And in the end Huawei has showed no signs of not actually fulfilling its contractual obligations in Europe, Asia Pacific, near and Middle East, Latin America and Africa. Russia is on hold for multilateral sanctions.
So, whenever you mention the 'west' what you really mean is the area comprised of a few countries. A tiny part of Huawei's world trade. Even today it is still bigger than Nokia and Ericsson combined in terms of ICT and still ranks number one in 5G infrastructure.
Yes, there are huge problems to be dealt with but they have geopolitical roots, not technical roots. There is no doubt in anyone's mind that China will resolve those technical problems sooner than if the US had not done anything. Absolutely zero doubt of that.
In terms of problems though, it is the US which has made a rod for its own back and there is no turning back on that. The bullet has been fired. The US is now regarded as an untrustworthy technological partner. That is an insurmountable problem.
The latest sanctions have actually worsened the situation as they directly impact US citizens working for Chinese companies. Now even US employees are considered toxic.
The rest of the world was already working to reduce dependencies on non-sovereign technology. That was one of the goals set out in the creation of the EU processor initiative which was created long before the US even realised it needed a CHIPS act. However, that was at a government level and would use both government and private funding to achieve its goals.
After seeing their businesses severely impacted through unilateral, extraterritorial US sanctions, non-US companies have accelerated their plans to remove dependencies on US technology.
Even you should be able to see the outcome of those actions. The US can only do what it is currently doing because its technology sold into the global supply chain. It is now trying to fragment that supply chain unilaterally. No one will want to buy from companies it cannot rely on because of government actions.
Lastly, the question you refuse to answer. The world does not turn on cutting edge processes. It never has! The world turns on stable, mature process nodes. That is why virtually none of the world's semiconductor output is on cutting edge technology.
The recent shortage of chips across the world's supply chains was NOT a shortage of cutting edge chips. Please get that into your head!
That is why the latest round (and late being the right word here) of sanctions against companies wanting to sell technology to China are focused on much older equipment, not the minority, latest, greatest and of course, most expensive nodes.
The potential knock on effect here is that the world depends on China for the finished products and fiddling with those older process nodes could have gigantic effects on trade worldwide. Yet another reason why companies want out (and as quickly as possible!) on US dependency. Of course, even the US administration finally saw that bullet going its way and had to quickly issue 'exceptions' to certain companies with business in China.
TSMC has said it. ASML has said it. ASMI has said it. Everyone knows it. The US approach will fail.
Technically it has already failed as it has only served to highlight the issues of technology dependencies. Now the world is accelerating plans to eradicate US dependencies. China is obviously leading that pack. US semiconductor businesses are bleeding green to the tune of billions. Billions needed for R&D.
All you have been able to offer up is your usual hatred of China (politics which has no place here) and say it is all 'temporary'.
You obviously don't want to acknowledge what is happening.
I think I've covered the technical and financial aspects quite clearly. The political side does not have much room here but I will add a link to where politics meets law and some scenarios that could result.
There is no point discussing more on the subject as you simply have a pre-formed opinion and ignore anything that doesn't fit into it.
From a technical perspective your understanding of current events is severely lacking.
Military hardware does not, and never has, employed the latest nodes for semiconductor usage. It is not mature enough and costs are prohibitive.
Military hardware is a combination of bespoke silicon and off-the-shelf silicon.
Procurement has always been a huge problem for military usage as hardware has a very long service life.
When using commercial off-the-shelf options, that long service life often means there are procurement issues down the line as the nodes in question are often not economically viable for outputting semiconductors for military usage.
That is a major consideration. It applies to bespoke silicon for military usage too. Ironically, commercial bespoke silicon using various nodes has seen high demand over the last few years but there is a huge difference.
Military usage does not generate the unit numbers required to make things financially viable - even on old nodes. The military simply does not order enough product. It is therefore an expensive business.
Google, Meta et tal can go that route because they can order thousands upon thousands of units.
Where does this tie in with your China claims?
China already has 14nm and 7nm capacity. The US does not have 7nm capacity. That was one of the key takeaways from the Techinsights report. It was a wake up call because no one thought it could happen. Yourself included. Much less last year (which is when they began shipping the hardware). I'm sure there was a certain amount of panic running through the corridors of US power on that news.
In military terms, yields and cost are completely irrelevant in the face of sanctions. They don't need to pump out millions of processors and have all the finances needed to pay for it!
Sanctions have zero impact on China's military ambitions. No one (well, except you, for sure) doubts that from a military perspective. No one questions that
Away from military hardware but still on military usage, AI can benefit from the latest advances but China for sure has plenty of AI capacity already. What AI needs is to be 'fed' and it gorges on data. And who is better placed to get data into those systems? It certainly isn't the US.
So, from a 'national security' perspective, the sanctions mean literally nothing.
This is about technology and the rise of China as a competitor to the US. Nothing more.
OK, as promised, the legal side:
Take note of the contents of this paper (.Pdf ) and try to imagine what the possible outcomes may be.
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agere_Systems
That statement is factually incorrect, if not an outright lie on your part, and you know it's a lie, because you live in the West, where we have a nominal free press. That free press does not exist in China, so how would you verify anything that Huawei states? You can't
https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/are-private-chinese-companies-really-private/
Contrast that with the free market;
For the most part, Western governments only regulate private business, for a variety of reasons including National Security, but they are almost never directly involved in the operation of those businesses, and certainly not anything like the CPC is involved in businesses such as Huawei, which are part and parcel of their state security apparatus.
Ultimately, the current marketplace between the West and China has become distorted, and this coincides with Xi era of China rolling back freedoms enjoyed by the Chinese people. You seem to place the blame squarely on the West, when in fact, Xi's complete control of the Chinese government is an obvious issue in the West, as noted by the PEW poll that I posted earlier.
As for your statement that you do not defend authoritarian governments, I have seen a number of your previous statements in denial of China's human rights violations, posted here on Ai, even against overwhelming information that it is occurring, and documented by the same EU that you so strongly support otherwise.
AT&T. Private company. 2017. Pressured out of a deal with Huawei.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-at-t-huawei-tech-idUSKBN1EX29E
UK government. Pressured out of doing 5G business with Huawei.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/uk-banned-huawei-because-us-told-us-to-former-minister/
No evidence ever presented. Should we be surprised?
And just to drive the message home to you:
"He recalled that GCHQ was rather unimpressed. The encounter revealed that the US case was primarily political rather than technical. So GCHQ stuck to their guns, as did the prime minister at first, Darroch explained."
https://frontierindia.com/cias-black-ops-led-the-uk-to-drop-huawei-5g-book-reveals/
Can I now say that AT&T and the UK government are now part of the US government because they changed their reasoned decisions?
The US fears that China will overtake it in the technology realm. That's it.
You still are unable to understand the difference between companies in China and companies in the West; it's almost like you are in denial...
Sure, Western Governments shape policy, but they aren't involved in the day to day operation of businesses, nor are these businesses staffed with party members, and operated by party controlled union groups, as they are in China.
Presumably, you have worked in the West before, so you should be able to figure that out.
What is it with you and Huawei anyway? It seems an, unhealthy, attachment.
That's rich!
Look. You just veer off topic with the same anti China line over and over again. And now you imply I have some kind of issue? LOL.
There is nothing with 'me and Huawei'.
I just know a lot about the company (and Apple!) and its products. I try to comment on things I know about and stay away from stuff I'm not so knowledgeable of. Samsung could pop up somewhere here and you'll see nary a peep from me because I just don't know Samsung all that well.
As for 'shaping policy' , you seem to have brushed over my subtle point that it is the US that has been trying to shape the policy of sovereign nations for literally decades now and yes, via methods most foul too, but that has little to do with technology does it?
When it comes to the issue under discussion in this thread you literally have nothing to counter what I've pointed out because, by and large, what I have stated is fact, and largely supported by comments from the US administration itself. Especially when Trump was free to tweet his thoughts on an hourly basis.
You're gonna have to accept that.
The US is hellbent on slowing China down because future economic growth is going to be very technology related. Far more than it is now and the US is not well placed to keep pace with China. All its moves have been late and very poorly planned. Starting with 5G. It completely missed the boat.
Don't let actual facts hit you in the backside...
comment above from a poster, here;
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/chinas-manmade-island-fortresses-like-youve-never-seen-them-before
Oh, and China's economy isn't growing like it had. Doesn't look like China will catch up or exceed the U.S., and its population will likely collapse over the next 40 years.
You are now presenting comments from random internet posters to back up your off topic claims.
As recently as this week one of the biggest US semi-conductor associations (SIA) made an official statement on the CHIPS act and pushed for more of the outlay to go towards R&D, acknowledging that the semiconductor industry burns through funds like there is no tomorrow and the amounts earmarked for future development will be used up very quickly.
https://www.semiconductors.org/american-semiconductor-research-leadership-through-innovation/?utm_campaign=Week in Review&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=231646752&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--gdKtx0YLaPLG1I5_H0ZhZ1qYtzDnK8QLRFVLCscz6j4ijsr1uinwas-vFYwl9SH4dE3jCV5bRBsy8DpqWLdhx9LIm3A&utm_content=231646752&utm_source=hs_email
Of course, not being able to do good business with the number one market for its clients' products is hurting to the tune of billions. Then there is the fact that other (Chinese and non-Chinese) clients are actively working to eradicate US technology from supply chains and you get an idea of what the future of the US tech industry looks like.
Why do business with companies whose government has no issues weaponising their technology?
Surely even you can see that angle?
But just in case...
"That hurts semiconductor companies like Nvidia, which makes graphics chips used to run A.I. applications in China and elsewhere. The Silicon Valley company, already suffering from a sharp sales decline for video game applications, recently estimated that the U.S. restrictions would probably reduce revenues in its current quarter by about $400 million.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/technology/chip-makers-challenges.html
If only China wasn't weaponizing all of this technology, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
The promise of the blockade of technology to China, is to prevent Xi from growing the economy at the expense of the West, which has already slowed due to COVID, and the collapsing real estate market, and to prevent the PLA from increasing the lethality of its weapons, especially through AI. These blockades may not work indefinitely, but they only need to be successful through the end of the decade for the West to prepare against an increasing militant China. It also means the China will have to increasingly spend more on R&D to keep up with the West.
And some reading material;
https://www.wsj.com/articles/huawei-china-meng-kovrig-spavor-prisoner-swap-11666877779
Funny how authoritarians are so fond of taking hostages, for later negotiations, but either way, those hostages, the human rights violations, and the repression of Hong Kong turned the tide agains Huawei and China. Epic fuckup on Xi's part, as it Xi didn't want a more insular and self sufficient China anyway.
As for the whinging of the semi-conductor supply chain, it is temporary, and supply chain will only increase outside of China, buy you knew that.
As for the comment that I posted above, it provides a historical context. that you fuckers in the EU have been coasting on your National Defense spending, and always depend on the U.S. to come to the rescue when some aggressor, aka Russia decides to threaten or invade. More than that, the EU, as well as the rest of the world benefits from the U.S. Navy providing freedom of navigation that is the basis of global trade.
Now if we can just get the EU to stop trading democracy for exports, we might actually end up in a great place.
Trump pulled the trigger but the bullet hasn't hit yet. Pointing a big finger at non-US companies and telling them 'you can't sell your products to other non-US companies without a US granted licence' is not the way you generate trust. The US is a technologically toxic market now.
The semiconductor industry isn't 'whinging' about it, it is worried about its future (which now depends more and more on government funding) because it can't sell to its largest market. It has seen share prices slashed, revenues severely impacted, R&D reduced, and worst of all, new competitors rising on the horizon in every area of the semi conductor supply chain.
It is far from a 'temporary' situation because those new competitors will be undercutting US technology in the long run.
It is estimated that the US lost 11 billion dollars in revenues from Huawei alone in the first year of sanctions. Think about it. That's just one company.
You keep posting like you think that China is in a great position in this, and that the U.S.. It isn't, and even the EU is distancing itself from China, slowly but surely, and thanks to Russia, a partner of China, invading Ukraine, China is even worse off with the West. Then you have Iran, another partner of Russia, playing out a potential realignment to a secular government. Authoritarians just can't win anymore. Xi is literally reversing the progress that China made earlier.
As for the "billions" in losses of Huawei's revenue, sadly, Huawei is losing even worse than that, completely losing its one time, and short term, dominance in smartphones, even in China. But hey, China and Russia are still well regarded in the Global South, for now anyway.
Do you really think that China will be able to compete with the U.S. and its allies in semiconductors in the decade? They are literally 4 generations behind, and haven't the supply chain internally, so will have to develop that from scratch.
Do you think that the U.S. and the West aren't planning on competing head to head with China on 6G? They have learned their lessons too.
https://www.lawfareblog.com/democracies-need-open-networks-counter-chinas-5g-big-brother
Oct 28 (Reuters) - Germany will press for China to open up its economic markets to European companies and will discuss human rights during a visit by Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Beijing next week, a government spokesperson said on Friday.
Germany's view of Beijing has changed in recent months but it is against "decoupling" from the Chinese economy, the spokesperson told a briefing.
Berlin is also still examining the potential Chinese takeover of the chip production of Dortmund-based company Elmos, which follows on the heels of Chinese attempts to buy a stake in a terminal in the port of Hamburg.
What percentage of world processor output is on cutting edge nodes?
Your 'four generations ahead' claim is ridiculous and meaningless when you take that into account.
I can tell you exactly where Huawei is going in the short term in processor terms: chip stacking.
They have developed a new - cheaper - chip stacking technology as a stop gap measure while the entire supply chain gets rejigged.
Where will China be after ten years of semiconductor self sufficiency efforts? That is impossible to know. However, they will be far closer to their goals than had the US not tried to destroy the global semiconductor supply chain. That is a given. It is also a given that in ten years there will be less US semiconductor influence worldwide because companies are already looking for ways to erradicate US choke points!
6G? That is at least 8 years away and Huawei is actively developing for it. In fact, the US has already had to backtrack on its Huawei sanctions just to be able to get a seat at standards meetings! Such great planning, eh?
Before that, we will see 5.5G and the US will not have much influence there either. Huawei has already resolved the current 5G choke point on 5G ICT equipment.
And the west will not 'compete' with China on 6G. 6G will be a standard! Lots of players will be involved in agreeing that standard. Chinese players included.
You are still in denial. If the U.S. blockage of leading edge technology wasn't a big deal, then surely Huawei would have retained its marketshare in phones. They literally had their phone business destroyed. You can't even accept that. But by all means, China should develop its own alternatives, just as the West should develop alternatives to Huawei and ZTE.
As for Huawei, if there is one thing that the world is learning from Russia's invasion, and from China's threats to Taiwan, relying on critical resources or infrastructure from your adversaries is fraught with risk.
I restate. If China wasn't the threat that it is to the existing rules of order, you and I wouldn't be having this conversation. That's on them.
https://gppi.net/2021/12/30/seven-lessons-from-the-german-5g-debate
Yeah, why aren't you advocating for the EU to have more skin in the game and build their own telecom technological base?
Crickets...
Then this;
Germany and China's COSCO
Remember those billions that the US semiconductor industry is bleeding? It is a huge deal.
An industry that absolutely wants to do business with Huawei.
Second. The industry and Huawei had the rug pulled out from under their feet.
It takes time to rejig supply lines and recreate software services. That is happening right now.
It has been suggested that Huawei will return to its two flagship per year release cycle in 2023.
It is expanding its cloud hardware/software business. It is growing its automotive division. Providing 5G services for industry (ports, mining, health, science, aviation, rail, farming etc). Putting even more resources into PV solutions. Leveraging it's patent portfolio.
There is a lot going on.
At the same time it is investing in the semiconductor industry.
That's all technology related.
Huawei is not China. What China and Germany may or may not agree is trade and politics. Not relevant here.
But hey! Why not answer the questions I asked instead of scurrying off to irrelevant points.
Come on! The answer is easy. How much of the world's semiconductor output is on cutting edge nodes?
More to the point, why don't you accept that this is primarily about National Security? Are you unable to see that?
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/14/china-decline-dangers/
Pretty much describes my POV.
That has been debunked over and over again and I gave you a link right here in this thread that touched that full on.
The US provided zero evidence of national security risks to anyone. It never has. GCHQ didn't buy it either. Huawei offered to licence its entire 5G stack to a US company or consortium, including source code. The whole damn thing! It wasn't accepted. Why? Because national security isn't the issue here. Technology is.
US representatives had to literally shout their orders relative to Huawei and 5G for five hours solid to the UK government which refused to budge until the US finally pulled the rug out from under everyone's feet by creating a situation in which the UK government thought that Huawei might not be able to source the required components for the roll out.
You propose something to a supposed 'ally' that you have a supposed 'special relationship' with. You offer up zero evidence to support your claims and when they snub you and support the snub with real evidence, you literally force them to bow down to your orders. Is that authoritarian?
That move cost its dear 'friend' billions in rip and replace along with a major strategic delay in getting 5G into industry. Ah! And no trade deal for that dear friend either!
And in the end Huawei has showed no signs of not actually fulfilling its contractual obligations in Europe, Asia Pacific, near and Middle East, Latin America and Africa. Russia is on hold for multilateral sanctions.
So, whenever you mention the 'west' what you really mean is the area comprised of a few countries. A tiny part of Huawei's world trade. Even today it is still bigger than Nokia and Ericsson combined in terms of ICT and still ranks number one in 5G infrastructure.
Yes, there are huge problems to be dealt with but they have geopolitical roots, not technical roots. There is no doubt in anyone's mind that China will resolve those technical problems sooner than if the US had not done anything. Absolutely zero doubt of that.
In terms of problems though, it is the US which has made a rod for its own back and there is no turning back on that. The bullet has been fired. The US is now regarded as an untrustworthy technological partner. That is an insurmountable problem.
The latest sanctions have actually worsened the situation as they directly impact US citizens working for Chinese companies. Now even US employees are considered toxic.
The rest of the world was already working to reduce dependencies on non-sovereign technology. That was one of the goals set out in the creation of the EU processor initiative which was created long before the US even realised it needed a CHIPS act. However, that was at a government level and would use both government and private funding to achieve its goals.
After seeing their businesses severely impacted through unilateral, extraterritorial US sanctions, non-US companies have accelerated their plans to remove dependencies on US technology.
Even you should be able to see the outcome of those actions. The US can only do what it is currently doing because its technology sold into the global supply chain. It is now trying to fragment that supply chain unilaterally. No one will want to buy from companies it cannot rely on because of government actions.
Lastly, the question you refuse to answer. The world does not turn on cutting edge processes. It never has! The world turns on stable, mature process nodes. That is why virtually none of the world's semiconductor output is on cutting edge technology.
The recent shortage of chips across the world's supply chains was NOT a shortage of cutting edge chips. Please get that into your head!
That is why the latest round (and late being the right word here) of sanctions against companies wanting to sell technology to China are focused on much older equipment, not the minority, latest, greatest and of course, most expensive nodes.
The potential knock on effect here is that the world depends on China for the finished products and fiddling with those older process nodes could have gigantic effects on trade worldwide. Yet another reason why companies want out (and as quickly as possible!) on US dependency. Of course, even the US administration finally saw that bullet going its way and had to quickly issue 'exceptions' to certain companies with business in China.
TSMC has said it. ASML has said it. ASMI has said it. Everyone knows it. The US approach will fail.
Technically it has already failed as it has only served to highlight the issues of technology dependencies. Now the world is accelerating plans to eradicate US dependencies. China is obviously leading that pack. US semiconductor businesses are bleeding green to the tune of billions. Billions needed for R&D.
All you have been able to offer up is your usual hatred of China (politics which has no place here) and say it is all 'temporary'.
You obviously don't want to acknowledge what is happening.
Good for thought:
https://fortune.com/2022/09/28/chip-export-ban-china-us-asml-nvidia-rakesh-kumar/
https://asiatimes.com/2022/10/us-chip-ban-de-facto-declaration-of-war-on-china/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/19/what-do-us-curbs-on-selling-microchips-to-china-mean-for-the-global-economy
You continue ignoring the military implications fo AI and advanced semiconductors in weapons. That this is an attempt to hobble China's military ambitions is pretty obvious, but it is also a fact that China's major push in AI has been to date for surveillance. China doesn't actually have much other tech leadership in the world.
https://www.chinafile.com/reporting-opinion/viewpoint/new-export-controls-chinese-semiconductors-may-prove-self-defeating
All of this is to impede China's ability to fab at 14nm and below. China's 7nm production is very inefficient, using a DUV process with multiple patterning vs a EUV process with single patterning. The U.S. will work to prevent EUV sales to China. All of the newest fabs, and the planned fabs in the U.S. at 5nm and smaller will use EUV.
There is no point discussing more on the subject as you simply have a pre-formed opinion and ignore anything that doesn't fit into it.
From a technical perspective your understanding of current events is severely lacking.
Military hardware does not, and never has, employed the latest nodes for semiconductor usage. It is not mature enough and costs are prohibitive.
Military hardware is a combination of bespoke silicon and off-the-shelf silicon.
Procurement has always been a huge problem for military usage as hardware has a very long service life.
When using commercial off-the-shelf options, that long service life often means there are procurement issues down the line as the nodes in question are often not economically viable for outputting semiconductors for military usage.
That is a major consideration. It applies to bespoke silicon for military usage too. Ironically, commercial bespoke silicon using various nodes has seen high demand over the last few years but there is a huge difference.
Military usage does not generate the unit numbers required to make things financially viable - even on old nodes. The military simply does not order enough product. It is therefore an expensive business.
Google, Meta et tal can go that route because they can order thousands upon thousands of units.
Where does this tie in with your China claims?
China already has 14nm and 7nm capacity. The US does not have 7nm capacity. That was one of the key takeaways from the Techinsights report. It was a wake up call because no one thought it could happen. Yourself included. Much less last year (which is when they began shipping the hardware). I'm sure there was a certain amount of panic running through the corridors of US power on that news.
In military terms, yields and cost are completely irrelevant in the face of sanctions. They don't need to pump out millions of processors and have all the finances needed to pay for it!
Sanctions have zero impact on China's military ambitions. No one (well, except you, for sure) doubts that from a military perspective. No one questions that
Away from military hardware but still on military usage, AI can benefit from the latest advances but China for sure has plenty of AI capacity already. What AI needs is to be 'fed' and it gorges on data. And who is better placed to get data into those systems? It certainly isn't the US.
So, from a 'national security' perspective, the sanctions mean literally nothing.
This is about technology and the rise of China as a competitor to the US. Nothing more.
OK, as promised, the legal side:
Take note of the contents of this paper (.Pdf ) and try to imagine what the possible outcomes may be.
https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/can-china-blunt-impact-new-us-economic-sanctions
That's it from me. I've spelt things out to you in clear and simple terms while trying to focus on the technological side of things.
The rest is simply a question of time.