Ming-Chi Kuo predicts a dim future for Apple Vision Pro
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that Apple Vision Pro shipments will be limited by a few key suppliers to half what's been predicted, and an update won't arrive until 2027.

Vision Pro at Apple Park
In a Medium post on Tuesday, Ming-Chi Kuo is swinging wide with prognostications about the Apple Vision Pro headset.
Based on some component suppliers' maximum production capacity estimates, Vision Pro shipments in 2024 will be at most 400,000-600,000 units," Kuo claims. Apparently, the market expectation for shipments in 2024 is one million, according to Kuo.
He goes on to guess that Apple may have canceled a low-cost Apple Vision headset in 2025. He cites price for the Apple Vision Pro being a problem, leading to shipment growth of the first version of Apple's headset "not materializing."
Furthermore, he doesn't foresee mass production of a Vision Pro 2 headset until the first half of 2027. This suggests to him that there may be no hardware updates for the headset in over three years.
His primary concern appears to be explaining to potential users exactly why they need this product, despite being an "excellent experience."
"The Vision Pro may take longer than the market expects to become the next star product of the iPhone," Kuo concludes.
The $3499 Apple Vision Pro was announced at the 2023 WWDC. The software for it is still in beta, and CEO Tim Cook says that it is "on track" for early 2024 shipments.
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Comments
I'm certainly in that boat.
It will take time for Vision Pro to be refined and economical for the mass.
Think about most of the revolutionary consumer devices — they often start HUGE, and eventually become small — like home computers. The Vision Pro is the tool that will give you those AR+ sunglasses you are wanting in a few years. The Mac Pro you’d never buy is the tool that makes the advanced weather forecasting and filmmaking end-products (to name but two examples) you enjoy on your TV or iPad.
Apple's focus is on delivering highly innovative, premium products for consumers who value the qualities that Apple's products deliver. This approach has allowed Apple to maintaining extraordinary levels of customer satisfaction and brand loyalty. Being able to rake in abundant profits in the premium segment of the market has been very good for Apple's bottom line. I don't see that changing anytime soon.
The target price of the Vision Pro very much reinforces Apple's long standing go-to-market philosophy. Apple knows going in that there won't be a Vision Pro landing in every household, business office, or development studio. Where it does land, however, I don't think there will be a lot of consternation about its price.
I think the killer features will be the spatial video recording (which was included on the 15 and the 15 Pro Max iPhones), sports, concerts, and movies. and since it has an M2 processor, it can run most of the Mac, iPad and iPhone software depending upon Apple. This new ecosystem is literally a developers paradise.
I would also point out that Apple, with the introduction of the Apple Vision Pro, Apple also has the option of introducing a new video website (using the new technology). Not withstanding, the EU insisting that Apple share everything with their competitors.
Obviously the AVP is not only being produced as a TV screen alternative. But I'm pointing out that the TV part alone has competitive value and consumer appeal. And Apple does have consumer entertainment functions now with Apple TV+ and all of the media content produced for it.
I’m certainly buying one as early as possible in anticipation of it being supply constrained.
Reviews have all been favorable. I’m sure Apple is planning to stick with the product for as long as it takes to become mass market.