Apple's meteoric rise is over, says KeyBanc

AppleInsiderAppleInsider
Posted:
in AAPL Investors

KeyBanc Capital Markets believes Apple will struggle to grow sales, especially in the US, and has cut its rating for the firm.

iPhone 15 Pro Max
iPhone 15 Pro Max



Ahead of the iPhone 15 launch, investment firms had low expectations, with JP Morgan dropping its Apple stock target to $230 from $235. Subsequently, JP Morgan has kept that target price, despite reporting that shipping times for the iPhone 15 Pro Max are at "historically" long times.

Now KeyBanc Capital Markets has also questioned Apple's ability to continue beating expectations. In a note to investors seen by CNBC, the company expects soft growth in the Americas, where sales are "likely to struggle."

"We expect the U.S. to experience its fourth consecutive y/y decline in F4Q23, potentially carrying into F124 for several reasons," wrote analyst Brandon Nispel. "We also expect margins to improve at a slower pace in the next couple of years."

"We see [Apple] stock trading at rich multiples and expect trends in key markets such as the U.S. to remain soft, which puts pressure on [international markets] for growth," continued Nispel. "We believe in order to justify upside to AAPL shares, peak valuations need to be applied or its growth profile needs to inflect higher."

KeyBanc also predicts all-time low phone upgrade rates, as US carriers are targeting the more expensive iPhone 15 Pro models.

Overall, the company says that iPhone revenue will be down 2.2% over the whole of 2023 -- but up 2.1% in 2024.

KeyBanc also expects that Apple's revenue growth for fiscal 2024 will be 3.5%. According to CNBC, the average consensus from other analysts is 6%. Consequently, KeyBanc has cut its Apple rating from "overweight" to "sector weight."


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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 20
    eriamjheriamjh Posts: 1,647member
    What do 20 other firms say?   I think we hear this every year/month/week.   
    williamlondondanoxpscooter63FileMakerFellerStrangeDaysAlex_VAlex1Nwatto_cobra
  • Reply 2 of 20
    hydrogenhydrogen Posts: 314member
    Apple  is doomed.
    williamhwilliamlondonigorskydanoxpscooter63FileMakerFellernetroxStrangeDaysAlex_Vcornchip
  • Reply 3 of 20
    thinkman100000000thinkman100000000 Posts: 80member
    You heard it here first - yet another of the 20,000 financial analytical firms is speculating on the future with barely a whiff of what Apple's been up to for the last decade! I have to see this as a form of insider trading or market manipulation. 
    pulseimagesjrfunkkitatitdanoxpscooter63FileMakerFellerAlex1Nwatto_cobra
  • Reply 4 of 20
    domicinatordomicinator Posts: 12member
    eriamjh said:
    What do 20 other firms say?   I think we hear this every year/month/week.   
    Yeah but Billy G really loves reporting on each one individually. Gotta stay on brand.
    watto_cobra
  • Reply 5 of 20
    hammeroftruthhammeroftruth Posts: 1,313member
    thinkman100000000 said:
    You heard it here first - yet another of the 20,000 financial analytical firms is speculating on the future with barely a whiff of what Apple's been up to for the last decade! I have to see this as a form of insider trading or market manipulation. 
    They want to buy on the dip. 
    Party’s over because you can’t get your hands on a pro or pro max. 🙄
    jrfunkStrangeDaysAlex1Nwatto_cobra
  • Reply 6 of 20
    HonkersHonkers Posts: 156member
    A drop from $230 to $235 isn’t so bad. Keep dropping!
    FileMakerFeller
  • Reply 7 of 20
    jdwjdw Posts: 1,340member
    I'd never heard of "KeyBanc Capital Markets" until I read this article, making the need for an article rather unusual.

    But who hasn't heard of Warrant Buffet?

    Conclusion: Stop listening to obscure analysis and investment firms.  Instead, watch the moves of Warrant Buffet:



    Go AAPL.
    pscooter63FileMakerFellerAlex1Nwatto_cobra
  • Reply 8 of 20
    quakerotisquakerotis Posts: 62member
    the purpose of stock analysis for companies and individuals is to drum up business for their firms.
    igorskyStrangeDaysAlex1Nwatto_cobra
  • Reply 9 of 20
    XedXed Posts: 2,571member
    In relation to where they are now? Probably not, and yet everything shows that they'll still be increasing revenue and profit in larger amounts than every other company.
    williamlondon9secondkox2Alex1Nwatto_cobra
  • Reply 10 of 20
    mikethemartianmikethemartian Posts: 1,326member
    Tim Cook just sold about 13% of his shares (0.5 million of 3.78 million total).
    williamlondon9secondkox2watto_cobra
  • Reply 11 of 20
    9secondkox29secondkox2 Posts: 2,727member
    That’s… let’s see… five meteoric rises now?

    the original Mac…

    the iPod…

    the iPhone…

    the iPad…

    Apple silicon macs…

    or I guess if you had to, you could break it down into three:

    original Apple. 

    Steve Jobs comeback Apple. 

    Tim Cooks Apple. 

    But wait, aren’t there m3 macs, more iPhones, iPads, vision pros, apple cars, and who knows what else to come? 

    Come on keybanc, apple may have stolen your girl, but there are plenty of fish in the sea. No need to get petty. 
    FileMakerFellerStrangeDaysAlex1Nwatto_cobra
  • Reply 12 of 20
    igorskyigorsky Posts: 757member
    hydrogen said:
    Apple  is doomed.
     Came here to post this. 
    pscooter63FileMakerFellerAlex1Nwatto_cobra
  • Reply 13 of 20
    mikethemartianmikethemartian Posts: 1,326member
    9secondkox2 said:
    That’s… let’s see… five meteoric rises now?

    the original Mac…

    the iPod…

    the iPhone…

    the iPad…

    Apple silicon macs…

    or I guess if you had to, you could break it down into three:

    original Apple. 

    Steve Jobs comeback Apple. 

    Tim Cooks Apple. 

    But wait, aren’t there m3 macs, more iPhones, iPads, vision pros, apple cars, and who knows what else to come? 

    Come on keybanc, apple may have stolen your girl, but there are plenty of fish in the sea. No need to get petty. 
    I don’t think the original Mac was a huge success. I believe the Apple II sustained the company until the end of the 80s.
    williamlondonwatto_cobra
  • Reply 14 of 20
    danoxdanox Posts: 2,874member
    mikethemartian said:
    Tim Cook just sold about 13% of his shares (0.5 million of 3.78 million total).
    I sold some of my Apple shares about a month ago in preparation for getting a new Mac computer and a new monitor (would have preferred a large screen iMac (which offers the most value), but I couldn’t wait any longer. Tim Cook is just doing what everyone else who shares needs to do from time to time. He’s definitely earned it between the USA, EU, China, Japan, Korea, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Google, Epic, Unity, Meta, Foxconn and now India etc..etc…
    FileMakerFellerStrangeDaysAlex1Nwatto_cobra
  • Reply 15 of 20
    FileMakerFellerFileMakerFeller Posts: 1,546member
    Yet another analysis based on the faulty idea that Apple is a cyclical company that needs hit after hit to generate growth. No recognition of subscription revenue or the trend of recurring sales that grow the ecosystem or the room for growth in countries outside the US.

    Grade: D-
    StrangeDaysAlex1Nwatto_cobra
  • Reply 16 of 20
    hmlongcohmlongco Posts: 537member
    mikethemartian said:
    I don’t think the original Mac was a huge success. I believe the Apple II sustained the company until the end of the 80s.
    So I have two words: PageMaker. LaserWriter. Mac pretty much kickstarted the entire desktop publishing market.

    williamlondonAlex1Nwatto_cobra
  • Reply 17 of 20
    XedXed Posts: 2,571member
    That’s… let’s see… five meteoric rises now?

    the original Mac…

    the iPod…

    the iPhone…

    the iPad…

    Apple silicon macs…

    or I guess if you had to, you could break it down into three:

    original Apple. 

    Steve Jobs comeback Apple. 

    Tim Cooks Apple. 

    But wait, aren’t there m3 macs, more iPhones, iPads, vision pros, apple cars, and who knows what else to come? 

    Come on keybanc, apple may have stolen your girl, but there are plenty of fish in the sea. No need to get petty. 
    I don’t think the original Mac was a huge success. I believe the Apple II sustained the company until the end of the 80s.
    That Mac wasn't a success? 🤦‍♂️ There, I fixed your post for you.
    edited October 2023 williamlondoncornchipAlex1Nwatto_cobra
  • Reply 18 of 20
    williamlondonwilliamlondon Posts: 1,324member
    Xed said:
    mikethemartian said:
    9secondkox2 said:
    That’s… let’s see… five meteoric rises now?

    the original Mac…

    the iPod…

    the iPhone…

    the iPad…

    Apple silicon macs…

    or I guess if you had to, you could break it down into three:

    original Apple. 

    Steve Jobs comeback Apple. 

    Tim Cooks Apple. 

    But wait, aren’t there m3 macs, more iPhones, iPads, vision pros, apple cars, and who knows what else to come? 

    Come on keybanc, apple may have stolen your girl, but there are plenty of fish in the sea. No need to get petty. 
    I don’t think the original Mac was a huge success. I believe the Apple II sustained the company until the end of the 80s.
    That Mac wasn't a success 🤦‍♂️ There, I fixed your post for you.
    Negative nellies and Goldilocks ("too this, too that," never happy) have nearly completely ruined this site (as they did MacRumors). Sadly, the editorial bent of late seems to keep inviting more of them this way, which makes it quite intentional. Sigh.
    Alex1Nwatto_cobra
  • Reply 19 of 20
    hcrefugeehcrefugee Posts: 98member
    Oh here we go again..."Apple, the beleaguered computer company...."

    1996 called, they want their tech analysts back.
    williamlondonAlex1Nwatto_cobra
  • Reply 20 of 20
    ToortogToortog Posts: 56member
    Apple and the other companies have it a tech plateau. they have taken smartphone, laptops, tablets, about as far as they can go in hardware changes.  A lot of the changes they make now are software changes.     Hardware upgrade drive sales more than software updates.   Even in the computers Apple's big step up was the M-1 SoC, but the new chips since them the performance increase are really only benefiting real professional and mainly professional working in video.   The the typical Apple user they really don't see or feel the improvement since the M1 so they don't feel a need for the new M2 and it higher performance Pro and Ultra versions.  So Apple has hit a point where for their typical customer are going to keep their devices longer and longer slowing Apple future sales.    

    Apple next possible product to drive higher sales is the Vision Pro, but it already has issues of high price,  a product for a still small market,  and a product so new that is going to take years to mature.   Also existing similar products that have drastically lower price.  So to the move into the VR/AR market is going to talk a lot of R&D and time and money for Apple.  Vision Pro first few years could be little or no profit.   Apple has TONS of money and can rideout reduced sales, but will it's shareholders. 
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