Apple Vision Pro followup could be 18 months away

Posted:
in Apple Vision Pro

A new report is backing up a common rumor that Apple's next Apple Vision Pro may be a year and a half away from release.

Apple Vision Pro
Apple Vision Pro



Apple has, so far, released one mixed-reality headset, but you can certainly expect more hardware to be on the way. If a rumor in a new report turns out to be true, then the next release could end up being in the middle of 2025.

Briefly mentioned in his "Power On" newsletter for Bloomberg on Sunday, Mark Gurman offers to readers that Apple "is probably at least 18 months away from launching a second-generation Vision Pro."

Gurman doesn't go into detail about the timing beyond the 18-month timespan. He also doesn't qualify whether the comment is based on external sources with knowledge of development plans or an educated guess.

And, it's not the first time we've heard a late-2025, early-2026 timeframe.

Even so, it seems to be a plausible timeframe for a future Apple release.

Apple Vision Pro 2 -- the ballpark schedule



For a start, Apple's development cycles for new products can be quite lengthy. Once it decides to create a new version of an existing product, Apple takes well over a year to create the next iteration, in part due to the sheer size of its operations and supply chain.

When coming up with a completely overhauled update to an existing device, Appel can take a while to produce it. For example, a 2017 interview with former Apple design chief Jony Ive revealed that Apple took over two years to develop the iPhone X, due to its introduction of a brand new edge-to-edge display and Face ID in its design.

This is, of course, different from coming up with the crucial first-generation model, which in the case of the Apple Vision Pro took quite a few years to implement.

For iterations that don't make as many changes, Apple can shorten this period down, potentially to as little as 18 months. For a device that is produced in considerably fewer quantities than the iPhone, an item like the Apple Vision Pro can have a shorter lead time due to not needing as many infrastructure changes.

A release in about a year and a half's time would be a little beyond the 2025 edition of WWDC. With Apple showing off the first Apple Vision Pro at WWDC 2023, a reappearance of a new generation model two years later at the same event feels fairly right time-wise.

Apple is also reportedly working on a new cheaper version of the Apple Vision Pro. Potentially a consumer-focused release, the lower-cost model is still rumored to be arriving in late 2025, again making 18 months seem quite possible for Apple to meet.

The tendency for Apple to introduce annual updates to its products also doesn't really apply to the Apple Vision Pro. As a first-generation device, there is no established cadence for updates as yet, and with expectations that Apple won't hit its stride with headsets until the fourth generation, a yearly update schedule seems to be a bit too rapid this early.

Rumor Score: Possible

Read on AppleInsider

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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 23
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,378member
    I'd expect that Apple will skip M3 for the M4, so that timeframe would make sense.

    The M4 would increase efficiency and performance, and possibly allow an embedded battery for the same 2 hours of use the the VP sees.
  • Reply 2 of 23
    This is purely speculative, but I would have imagined the next Vision Pro would be launched alongside or after the release of the M5 chip… end of 2025 or even 2026. 

    With everybody treating this version as Series 0, Series 1 would need to iron out a lot of the short fallings of the current headset, as well as any supply issues. 18 months just doesn’t seem enough time for substantive technological progress to do that.
    badmonkwilliamlondon
  • Reply 3 of 23
    omasouomasou Posts: 592member
    This is why I bought in now to try it out. Waiting for the next version is too far out.
    jas99williamlondonrue
  • Reply 4 of 23
    I wouldn’t be surprised if v2 was even 4 or 5 years away 
    williamlondon
  • Reply 5 of 23
    My money is on a 3-year cycle minimum.
    williamlondon
  • Reply 6 of 23
    thrangthrang Posts: 1,012member
    The spatial computing tree will bear more than one fruit for Apple. Another version may drop the Pro designation and eliminate EyeSight to reduce weight and cost for example. 

    I would be shocked that Apple does did not develop multiple variations at the same time and will release versions strategically...
    avon b7tmaynubus
  • Reply 7 of 23
    The AVP is technically pretty far ahead of anything else on the market. OS updates and getting more native apps seem like the priority versus quick hardware turnarounds. 
    jas99williamlondontmayruepulseimages
  • Reply 8 of 23
    MarvinMarvin Posts: 15,360moderator
    kkqd1337 said:
    I wouldn’t be surprised if v2 was even 4 or 5 years away 
    One of the biggest improvements will be getting the retail price down to be able to ship more units. OLED panel cost drops when yield improves:

    https://www.techpowerup.com/309200/oled-tv-prices-predicted-to-fall-in-2023-and-2024#g309200-2

    It's a slow drop but roughly 20% every 2 years.

    Apple Vision parts cost $1700 -> $3500 retail. The OLED displays are said to be $700. If they can get a 30% drop in 2 years, they can drop retail price to $3k.

    It doesn't sound like a lot but Vision Pro 1 refurbs will go down to $2500 or less.

    M4 in 2025 will also be more efficient than M2 e.g 2/3 the power usage at the same performance.

    AVP1 (2024) = $3499, 2.5 hour battery life, 600g, M2 (5nm), component cost = $1700
    AVP2 (2026) = $2999, 3.5 hour battery life, 500g, M4 (3nm), component cost = $1500, AVP1 refurb = $2500
    AVP3 (2028) = $2499, 4.5 hour battery life, 400g, M6 (2nm), component cost = $1300, AVP2 refurb = $2000
    AVP4 (2030) = $1999, 5.5 hour battery life, 300g, M8 (1.4nm), component cost = $1000, AVP3 refurb = $1500
    edited February 19 williamlondonruerezwits
  • Reply 9 of 23
    The AVP is technically pretty far ahead of anything else on the market. OS updates and getting more native apps seem like the priority versus quick hardware turnarounds. 
    Thats not what Zuckerberg thinks. His Quest model is better ‘period’ apparently. 
  • Reply 10 of 23
    Why did I think 2027 was the predicted v2 date? 
  • Reply 11 of 23
    nubusnubus Posts: 419member
    AVP with M2 was dated on arrival. It had to wait for the OS to be ready and it caused it to ship with a previous generation SoC.

    The main new features of M3 are better GPU and battery life due to 3nm. AVP is in need of both. The original iMac got 3 major upgrades within 9 months. The first 2,5 months after launch happened to deliver a much improved GPU and it didn't stop customers from buying. Apple should iterate quickly on the hardware, get M3 shipping, and when M4 is delivered later this year... then give it a M4 for more neural engines. Having hot-swap for power would be nice. But next gen design... sure that could take a few years.





    williamlondonrezwits
  • Reply 12 of 23
    eriamjheriamjh Posts: 1,662member
    I'm guessing the next AVP will be lighter, make of more plastic and less metal, no external screen (just simple or no lighting), a lower price, smaller boxing, one head strap..  No CPU changes until v3.   Economies of scale will help reduce costs on all sides.  Think Apple Watch improvements, and iPhone-style design bumps.
  • Reply 13 of 23
    omasouomasou Posts: 592member
    Marvin said:
    kkqd1337 said:
    I wouldn’t be surprised if v2 was even 4 or 5 years away 
    One of the biggest improvements will be getting the retail price down to be able to ship more units. OLED panel cost drops when yield improves:

    https://www.techpowerup.com/309200/oled-tv-prices-predicted-to-fall-in-2023-and-2024#g309200-2

    It's a slow drop but roughly 20% every 2 years.

    Apple Vision parts cost $1700 -> $3500 retail. The OLED displays are said to be $700. If they can get a 30% drop in 2 years, they can drop retail price to $3k.

    It doesn't sound like a lot but Vision Pro 1 refurbs will go down to $2500 or less.

    M4 in 2025 will also be more efficient than M2 e.g 2/3 the power usage at the same performance.

    AVP1 (2024) = $3499, 2.5 hour battery life, 600g, M2 (5nm), component cost = $1700
    AVP2 (2026) = $2999, 3.5 hour battery life, 500g, M4 (3nm), component cost = $1500, AVP1 refurb = $2500
    AVP3 (2028) = $2499, 4.5 hour battery life, 400g, M6 (2nm), component cost = $1300, AVP2 refurb = $2000
    AVP4 (2030) = $1999, 5.5 hour battery life, 300g, M8 (1.4nm), component cost = $1000, AVP3 refurb = $1500
    I don't see the AVP price coming down and I hope I am wrong. You probably know better than me but once Apple sets a price point, that's the price. The only exception that I have noticed is that Apple may increase the base RAM or SSD size.

    Instead I'd imagine they will release an AV less the external OLED screens and other bits which I don't particularly find useful but others might in an office scenario? But let's be realistic, if they improve the persona to the point where I can have a spatial FaceTime call and feel like I'm there in a crowd of folks then the external OLEDs only add complexity, weight and cost
    edited February 19
  • Reply 14 of 23
    XedXed Posts: 2,626member
    tmay said:
    I'd expect that Apple will skip M3 for the M4, so that timeframe would make sense.

    The M4 would increase efficiency and performance, and possibly allow an embedded battery for the same 2 hours of use the the VP sees.
    From my personal experience the tethered battery pack is not an issue, but the weight of the mask is, so I'd wager that they'll reduce weight as much as they can without adding more back on by putting the battery pack inside of it. I'm also leaning toward them not having a small battery so you can switch out the battery packs by disconnecting the tether as the USB-C port on the battery pack works very well for both charging and power passthrough.
    edited February 19
  • Reply 15 of 23
    nubusnubus Posts: 419member
    eriamjh said:
    I'm guessing the next AVP will be lighter, make of more plastic and less metal, no external screen (just simple or no lighting), a lower price, smaller boxing, one head strap..  No CPU changes until v3.   Economies of scale will help reduce costs on all sides.  Think Apple Watch improvements, and iPhone-style design bumps.
    That won't be AVP but "AppleVision Air" or something else. It makes sense, but it is another product. Changing M2 to M3... much easier.
  • Reply 16 of 23
    Apple’s cheaper version of the Vision Pro will only be aimed at the 2%.
    williamlondon
  • Reply 17 of 23
    mattinozmattinoz Posts: 2,352member
    omasou said:
    Marvin said:
    kkqd1337 said:
    I wouldn’t be surprised if v2 was even 4 or 5 years away 
    One of the biggest improvements will be getting the retail price down to be able to ship more units. OLED panel cost drops when yield improves:

    https://www.techpowerup.com/309200/oled-tv-prices-predicted-to-fall-in-2023-and-2024#g309200-2

    It's a slow drop but roughly 20% every 2 years.

    Apple Vision parts cost $1700 -> $3500 retail. The OLED displays are said to be $700. If they can get a 30% drop in 2 years, they can drop retail price to $3k.

    It doesn't sound like a lot but Vision Pro 1 refurbs will go down to $2500 or less.

    M4 in 2025 will also be more efficient than M2 e.g 2/3 the power usage at the same performance.

    AVP1 (2024) = $3499, 2.5 hour battery life, 600g, M2 (5nm), component cost = $1700
    AVP2 (2026) = $2999, 3.5 hour battery life, 500g, M4 (3nm), component cost = $1500, AVP1 refurb = $2500
    AVP3 (2028) = $2499, 4.5 hour battery life, 400g, M6 (2nm), component cost = $1300, AVP2 refurb = $2000
    AVP4 (2030) = $1999, 5.5 hour battery life, 300g, M8 (1.4nm), component cost = $1000, AVP3 refurb = $1500
    I don't see the AVP price coming down and I hope I am wrong. You probably know better than me but once Apple sets a price point, that's the price. The only exception that I have noticed is that Apple may increase the base RAM or SSD size.

    Instead I'd imagine they will release an AV less the external OLED screens and other bits which I don't particularly find useful but others might in an office scenario? But let's be realistic, if they improve the persona to the point where I can have a spatial FaceTime call and feel like I'm there in a crowd of folks then the external OLEDs only add complexity, weight and cost
    They could offer a certified Refurb market for this and other products as an "Environmental initiative" to hit a lower price point in the meantime. 

    Refurbs would let the new owner order face shields and headbands to suit themselves. They could even offer customer-to-customer transactions using AppleCash and take a fee. It would be a genuine sustainability measure for them to back the life span of their own products.

    They even go as far as having a robot they deploy to distribution centres that could change out the soldered SSD chips on refurbable devices. 
  • Reply 18 of 23
    I'm saving my pennies...
     :) 
    edited February 19 williamlondon
  • Reply 19 of 23
    Makes sense, 1st gen + a few bug fixes and material cost trimmings = consumer model 2025/26. Don’t imagine they’d bother trying to compete with all the cheap goggles, so pricing would have to be similar to a mid range Mac…?
  • Reply 20 of 23
    MarvinMarvin Posts: 15,360moderator
    omasou said:
    I don't see the AVP price coming down and I hope I am wrong. You probably know better than me but once Apple sets a price point, that's the price. The only exception that I have noticed is that Apple may increase the base RAM or SSD size.
    It depends on the product, some products are already priced low enough. Original iPad was $499.

    The first Macbook Air was $1799:
    https://everymac.com/systems/apple/macbook-air/specs/macbook-air-core-2-duo-1.6-13-specs.html

    Within 2 years, it reached $999 (45% price drop) and that entry price remained. Same with the Retina MBPs, everything is Retina now, even the cheap iPads.

    Apple Vision Pro has a Macbook Air inside it. A similar 45% price drop would be a retail price of $1999.
    omasou said:
    Instead I'd imagine they will release an AV less the external OLED screens and other bits which I don't particularly find useful but others might in an office scenario? But let's be realistic, if they improve the persona to the point where I can have a spatial FaceTime call and feel like I'm there in a crowd of folks then the external OLEDs only add complexity, weight and cost
    One of the most talked about features is the personal cinema. If they launched a product just for movies and nothing else, that would probably sell ok. But this still needs the expensive display panels. It might not need the power of the M2 chip because it would just be rendering an unlit video. If they can render 3D video with a lower power iOS chip like A18, they might be able to get rid of the fans and motors. No front-facing display, no fans, cheaper processing chip, video-only (movies and display mirroring).
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