Kinda feeling Apple will buck history here and update quite a few Mac’s this year to m4 status for multiple reasons:
a) it cleans up the generational mess over the last couple of years.
b) it puts further distance between apple silicon and Qualcomm’s disingenuous comparisons.
C) it allows for Apple Intelligence to shine on all Mac’s, showcasing Apple as the AI leader.
Between a and b, apple gets seen as the place to go for top tier ai.
D) M3 is/was expensive to fab.
Personally I think Apple will make the most of the M3 line until it becomes cost effective to ditch it. Sticking those SoC's in their highest selling systems; laptops and iMac is an indication that's what's going on here, especially after debuting the M4 in the latest iPad Pro. Any new Macs from this point forward will have the M4, and I think all of the aforementioned systems will be the last to get upgraded to it.
This year (after macOS Sequoia is released) we'll see the rest of the "low sales" systems get upgraded to the M4...
Mac mini M4/Pro Mac Studio M4 Max/Ultra Mac Pro M4 Ultra
Then next Spring/Summer, the others will get updated. (And with the debut of the iMac M4, we'll finally get back the larger iMac Pro M4 Pro/Max)
IMHO, this is missing one key factor, which is the possibility that, with the M3 generation, Apple has put the MacBook Pro onto a set cadence, with M3, M3 Pro, and M3 Max configurations all launching at the same time. I think Apple wants to establish that expectation, much like the iPhone Pro. It may not always be annual like the iPhone Pro, but it will be consistent. MacBook Pro will get the Pro and the Max first, in every M generation. Apple has been working toward this throughout the transition, they've said several times that it was a goal (Anand Shimpi in particular, but also others), and I think M3 achieved that.
M4 will test this hypothesis. Like @mjtomlin, I think the Mini has been moved onto a continuum with the Studio and the Pro. The three headless Macs will all be updated together going forward. The Mini's special role in the transition as both the first Apple silicon Mac (the Developer Transition Kit) and the last Intel Mac (to be discontinued) is over and done with.
I share everyone's desire for every Mac to get M4. I think iMac and MacBook Air are both important. When they get redesigns, they will again lead the way, but refreshes will always wait until after the MacBook Pro.
The Mini/Studio/Pro timing depends on factors that are simply not known. I said this in the other recent thread, and it bears repeating. The M1/M2 Ultra is an engineering marvel. The TSMC advanced-packaging technology Apple used for UltraFusion was cutting edge. M1 Ultra was the first product to use chip-first InFO-LSI packaging, far ahead of anyone else (Nvidia is just now introducing it, in Blackwell via CoWoS-L, which incorporates InFO-LSI into chip-last packaging).
So, if Apple is still using InFO-LSI for M4 Ultra, then it could come this year. That would be really fun. But I don't think Apple will stand still. TSMC and its partners in the 3DFabric Alliance have been pouring money into advanced packaging, tens of billions of dollars over the past few years. Obviously, you can't fully develop the Ultra until the Max is finished. Even if they drop the link between the Max and the Ultra, and produce a dedicated SoC for UltraFusion 2.0, it's going to take time. I think March 2025 is the earliest we should expect it, but more likely WWDC.
This is why it's difficult for medium and large businesses to adopt Apple products on a large scale. We have to plan our capital expenditures to maximize return over depreciation periods. Companies like HP and Dell will work with us by giving us access to their production schedules for 9-24 months out, depending on what products we are talking about. This lets us plan the best time to make purchases to maximize our returns not just on investment, but on the happiness and productivity of our end-users which is directly related to how well their gear works. Working with Apple is like: "Screw you. Guess." They put it more nicely, but that's basically what they're saying. The magic and mystery of surprise is great for consumer-level products, but for business it's a giant pile of unacceptable pain. When you wonder why iMacs and Mac Studios aren't found on more business desktops - and there is a case to be made for this - this is a big part of it. We don't like to play guessing games.
Kinda feeling Apple will buck history here and update quite a few Mac’s this year to m4 status for multiple reasons:
a) it cleans up the generational mess over the last couple of years.
b) it puts further distance between apple silicon and Qualcomm’s disingenuous comparisons.
C) it allows for Apple Intelligence to shine on all Mac’s, showcasing Apple as the AI leader.
Between a and b, apple gets seen as the place to go for top tier ai.
D) M3 is/was expensive to fab.
Personally I think Apple will make the most of the M3 line until it becomes cost effective to ditch it. Sticking those SoC's in their highest selling systems; laptops and iMac is an indication that's what's going on here, especially after debuting the M4 in the latest iPad Pro. Any new Macs from this point forward will have the M4, and I think all of the aforementioned systems will be the last to get upgraded to it.
This year (after macOS Sequoia is released) we'll see the rest of the "low sales" systems get upgraded to the M4...
Mac mini M4/Pro Mac Studio M4 Max/Ultra Mac Pro M4 Ultra
Then next Spring/Summer, the others will get updated. (And with the debut of the iMac M4, we'll finally get back the larger iMac Pro M4 Pro/Max)
Mac Studio may be low in sales, but high in profit.
This is why it's difficult for medium and large businesses to adopt Apple products on a large scale. We have to plan our capital expenditures to maximize return over depreciation periods. Companies like HP and Dell will work with us by giving us access to their production schedules for 9-24 months out, depending on what products we are talking about. This lets us plan the best time to make purchases to maximize our returns not just on investment, but on the happiness and productivity of our end-users which is directly related to how well their gear works. Working with Apple is like: "Screw you. Guess." They put it more nicely, but that's basically what they're saying. The magic and mystery of surprise is great for consumer-level products, but for business it's a giant pile of unacceptable pain. When you wonder why iMacs and Mac Studios aren't found on more business desktops - and there is a case to be made for this - this is a big part of it. We don't like to play guessing games.
For the MacBook Pro, M4 should tell us whether or not it’s now on an annual cadence like the iPhone Pro. We can also be hopeful that iMac and MacBook Air are going to be on it as well.
I know that’s not really what you’re talking about, but it’s better than nothing.
I don’t think there’ll be much clarity on the Mini/Studio/Pro, however. That is still developing, a moving target. Silicon, advanced packaging, and display technologies are all in flux.
I understand Apple wanting to avoid leaked-roadmap syndrome. But this is a new era for Apple. It’s a chance to reset relationships with the kinds of businesses you’re talking about. The old days where Apple would struggle to navigate third-party CPUs and GPUs, wanting to lead the industry, but ultimately dependent upon it, are dead and gone. The 2013 Mac Pro, precursor to the Mac Studio, embodied the problem. Few of the factors that frustrated the 2013 Mac Pro are still in place. TSMC and Apple have proven repeatedly over more than a decade that they can do this, and the desktops are going to benefit from that experience (not to mention Apple Intelligence)…
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M4 will test this hypothesis. Like @mjtomlin, I think the Mini has been moved onto a continuum with the Studio and the Pro. The three headless Macs will all be updated together going forward. The Mini's special role in the transition as both the first Apple silicon Mac (the Developer Transition Kit) and the last Intel Mac (to be discontinued) is over and done with.
I share everyone's desire for every Mac to get M4. I think iMac and MacBook Air are both important. When they get redesigns, they will again lead the way, but refreshes will always wait until after the MacBook Pro.
The Mini/Studio/Pro timing depends on factors that are simply not known. I said this in the other recent thread, and it bears repeating. The M1/M2 Ultra is an engineering marvel. The TSMC advanced-packaging technology Apple used for UltraFusion was cutting edge. M1 Ultra was the first product to use chip-first InFO-LSI packaging, far ahead of anyone else (Nvidia is just now introducing it, in Blackwell via CoWoS-L, which incorporates InFO-LSI into chip-last packaging).
So, if Apple is still using InFO-LSI for M4 Ultra, then it could come this year. That would be really fun. But I don't think Apple will stand still. TSMC and its partners in the 3DFabric Alliance have been pouring money into advanced packaging, tens of billions of dollars over the past few years. Obviously, you can't fully develop the Ultra until the Max is finished. Even if they drop the link between the Max and the Ultra, and produce a dedicated SoC for UltraFusion 2.0, it's going to take time. I think March 2025 is the earliest we should expect it, but more likely WWDC.
I don’t think there’ll be much clarity on the Mini/Studio/Pro, however. That is still developing, a moving target. Silicon, advanced packaging, and display technologies are all in flux.