Apple Vision Pro won't break 500k sales in 2024, even with international expansion

AppleInsider

The Apple Vision Pro probably won't break half a million sales before the end of the year, predicts analysts, with it predicted to endure a massive drop in U.S. sales heading into the fall.

Apple Vision Pro

Apple's release of the Apple Vision Pro has been extremely gradual and in relatively low figures relative to other hardware. Due to how it's been handled, the sales of the headset aren't thought to even reach the half-million point in 2024 at all.

According to analysts at IDC speaking to Bloomberg, the glacial sales of the Apple Vision Pro has so far failed to reach over 100,000 units per quarter.

This could be attributed to Apple's extremely slow rollout of the headset post-launch. As an expensive first-generation piece of hardware sold in U.S. stores, Apple has been extremely careful in bringing the headset to consumer eyes.

Apple did expand the availability of the Apple Vision Pro to outside the United States on June 28, including sales and preorders in nine new territories around the world.

However, this may not help increase sales by a considerable margin. IDC predicts a 75% drop in U.S. sales in the current quarter, meaning international sales will probably just offset the downturn.

This view seemingly echoes similar sentiments on U.S. sales from earlier in 2024. In April, Ming-Chi Kuo said shipment estimates were cut from a previous expectation of 700,00 to 800,000 units to between 400,000 and 450,000.

Cheaper option and content choices

IDC forecasts that, if Apple brings out another model that costs about half as much as the Apple Vision Pro, that could help sales in 2025. It won't necessarily help sales improve in 2024.

The rumored headset, a consumer-grade offering, is expected to cut back on specifications to reduce costs. It may even need to be tethered to a Mac or an iPhone instead of being a self-contained device, which could also save weight.

As well as the headset's existence in other countries, IDC offers that the content you can actually see on the Apple Vision Pro will impact sales.

"The Vision Pro's success, regardless of its price, will ultimately depend on the available content," proposes IDC vice president Francisco Jeronimo. As Apple's headset enters new markets, Jeronimo insists it is crucial that local content is produced and made available for the device.

For Apple's part, it has continued to build upon the immersive experiences it offered since the start of availability.

Blackmagic Design also waded into the immersive arena with the introduction of an end-to-end system for shooting Apple Vision Pro 3D content. This included a dual-lens camera, as well as file management initiatives that worked all the way to its video editing tool, DaVinci Resolve.

On the app side, Apple's selection of native visionOS apps is still relatively small, though users can also use many iPadOS apps without too much trouble. There has even been an effort to create a visionOS hackathon to help bulk up the lacking app numbers.



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TBeaubien

As outlined on DaringFireball.net in early May, John Gruber pointed out that there's no capacity for making more than around 450K VisionPro units and any "expectations" from outside bullshit artists are just that - bullshit.

https://daringfireball.net/linked/2024/05/06/vision-pro-sales-are-going-just-about-as-expected

NYC362

Oh no... Apple might only sell 300,000 (a guess) AVPs... at roughly $4000 per sale, that's just $1.2billion in revenue for the year. 

I think Apple should just close up shop on that news. 

Seriously, some of these stories are just ridiculous.  Did anyone really think that over half a million people were going to shell out over $4000 for a first gen product?  This AVP is in many ways, the prototype.  It provides the platform for future development.  It provides Apple with a ton of feedback on what a second or third generation should be, as well as a lower cost model.  It provides developers with a real platform to produce apps for the spatial environment. 

First gen products are always super expensive and often don't sell very well.  How many people spent $15,000 (it was somewhere in that neighborhood) on the first gen 42" flat panel televisions about 30 years ago?  ($15k in 1997 is oner $28k today).  

We're just six months into Apple Vision Pro... let's talk in about two or three years to see how it's doing. 

sagan_student

NYC362 said:

Oh no... Apple might only sell 300,000 (a guess) AVPs... at roughly $4000 per sale, that's just $1.2billion in revenue for the year. 

I think Apple should just close up shop on that news. 

Seriously, some of these stories are just ridiculous.  Did anyone really think that over half a million people were going to shell out over $4000 for a first gen product?  This AVP is in many ways, the prototype.  It provides the platform for future development.  It provides Apple with a ton of feedback on what a second or third generation should be, as well as a lower cost model.  It provides developers with a real platform to produce apps for the spatial environment. 

First gen products are always super expensive and often don't sell very well.  How many people spent $15,000 (it was somewhere in that neighborhood) on the first gen 42" flat panel televisions about 30 years ago?  ($15k in 1997 is oner $28k today).  

We're just six months into Apple Vision Pro... let's talk in about two or three years to see how it's doing. 

Agreed! 

Shifting paradigms and habits is no easy feat. Getting people to buy into a full screen smartphone that could mostly do what a computer could is easy compared to the leap that Apple is attempting to do with spacial computing. 

They are currently still in the process of changing a user paradigm with the iPad (which is also more difficult than that of the iPhone) and that has been a decade and still going on. 

miiwtwo

NYC362 said:

Oh no... Apple might only sell 300,000 (a guess) AVPs... at roughly $4000 per sale, that's just $1.2billion in revenue for the year. 

I think Apple should just close up shop on that news. 

Seriously, some of these stories are just ridiculous.  Did anyone really think that over half a million people were going to shell out over $4000 for a first gen product?  This AVP is in many ways, the prototype.  It provides the platform for future development.  It provides Apple with a ton of feedback on what a second or third generation should be, as well as a lower cost model.  It provides developers with a real platform to produce apps for the spatial environment. 

First gen products are always super expensive and often don't sell very well.  How many people spent $15,000 (it was somewhere in that neighborhood) on the first gen 42" flat panel televisions about 30 years ago?  ($15k in 1997 is oner $28k today).  

We're just six months into Apple Vision Pro... let's talk in about two or three years to see how it's doing. 

sorry, to apple 1.2billion is a big fail, and you know it as a fanboy,

miiwtwo

yes, less money and untethered, can you hear that Apple 

iadlib

Who in their right mind decided to price it as high as they did? Such a stupid move. This is the kind of product you want wide adoption for. People who bought the first version basically bought a beta. Corporate kickstarter BS

mikethemartian

NYC362 said:

Oh no... Apple might only sell 300,000 (a guess) AVPs... at roughly $4000 per sale, that's just $1.2billion in revenue for the year. 

I think Apple should just close up shop on that news. 

Seriously, some of these stories are just ridiculous.  Did anyone really think that over half a million people were going to shell out over $4000 for a first gen product?  This AVP is in many ways, the prototype.  It provides the platform for future development.  It provides Apple with a ton of feedback on what a second or third generation should be, as well as a lower cost model.  It provides developers with a real platform to produce apps for the spatial environment. 

First gen products are always super expensive and often don't sell very well.  How many people spent $15,000 (it was somewhere in that neighborhood) on the first gen 42" flat panel televisions about 30 years ago?  ($15k in 1997 is oner $28k today).  

We're just six months into Apple Vision Pro... let's talk in about two or three years to see how it's doing. 

That isn’t a great deal of money for a company the size of Apple.

ddawson100

TBeaubien said:

As outlined on DaringFireball.net in early May, John Gruber pointed out that there's no capacity for making more than around 450K VisionPro units and any "expectations" from outside bullshit artists are just that - bullshit.

https://daringfireball.net/linked/2024/05/06/vision-pro-sales-are-going-just-about-as-expected

Thanks for the informative (and your first post), TBeaubien. I found this very interesting. Snip from the post:

TheElec reported last June that Sony only had the capacity to manufacture 900,000 OLED panels per year for Vision Pro, which, if true, would cap Vision Pro headset production at 450,000 units. The Information reported in August that this display bottleneck “is one reason why Apple plans to make fewer than half a million Vision Pros in the first year of production”.

9secondkox2

Soooo… like I said before launch. 

It’s not rocket science. 

There was never anything more than a niche market for this. 

When it becomes a pair of Oakley shades or something, it will pick up. 

Until then, a nice idea that just doesn’t have mass market appeal in the real world. 

sagan_student

miiwtwo said:

sorry, to apple 1.2billion is a big fail, and you know it as a fanboy,

I disagree. For starters you’re making an assumption of what YOU deem Apple to think. But that aside, I can see logic in the hypothetical of why Apple chose this route and how this plays out for Apple. 

If there is to be a mass consumer model of this device then there better be content, otherwise you fail like so many before it. People not affording one yet is not the same as people jumping on board only to be disappointed when there’s nothing that can be consumed on it. By pricing it and selling it the way they did they attracted those who could afford and test to see how this product can help and improve their workflow. Let the professional types carve out how this fits into their niche. 

As that is happening, you, Apple, work on improving production costs, learn about how people use the device, fine tune the GUI, determine what can be discarded, and give time to developers and filmographers and others to slowly build up content. Such that when it is time to release a consumer version, there will be enough consumables for people to keep them on the platform so that more developers, media companies, etc start to produce content. 

But who knows? 🤷🏼‍♂️  Like you, I’m just on the sidelines with no first hand knowledge of what is happening in that department at Apple. Either way, I have difficulty seeing that Apple would not have considered what is currently playing out here. 

mattinoz

mikethemartian said:

NYC362 said:

Oh no... Apple might only sell 300,000 (a guess) AVPs... at roughly $4000 per sale, that's just $1.2billion in revenue for the year. 

I think Apple should just close up shop on that news. 

Seriously, some of these stories are just ridiculous.  Did anyone really think that over half a million people were going to shell out over $4000 for a first gen product?  This AVP is in many ways, the prototype.  It provides the platform for future development.  It provides Apple with a ton of feedback on what a second or third generation should be, as well as a lower cost model.  It provides developers with a real platform to produce apps for the spatial environment. 

First gen products are always super expensive and often don't sell very well.  How many people spent $15,000 (it was somewhere in that neighborhood) on the first gen 42" flat panel televisions about 30 years ago?  ($15k in 1997 is oner $28k today).  

We're just six months into Apple Vision Pro... let's talk in about two or three years to see how it's doing. 

That isn’t a great deal of money for a company the size of Apple.

Apple knew before launch how many they could make, they knew with actual returns and "f'n YouTubers" buying for content and returns. that they can only sell say maybe only 75% of that stock in the year.  

Apple decided that launching was the right thing to do for longer-term aims.

Might not be enough to keep whiny shareholders happy but let face it whiny shareholders are playing short game and need bad news to be created or enhanced for their short game wins. 

Xed

Forgive me if this was already mentioned, but I seem to recall that Sony could only produce about 400k display units the first year which means AVP 200k units were expected to be sold at max. So, it's up to 250%  more than previously expected which seems pretty damn good for that product. How many HoloLens 2 or Meta Quest Pros are being sold?

Luis.A.Masanti

We must understand two things:
1— This is a very low news week.
2— Showing Apple's failures bring page views… ad revenues!

Before the launch of VisionPro the news ‘blamed Apple’ because Sony would only be able to deliver 400K screens…
…and now, news ‘blame Apple’ for not achieving 500K Vision Pros!

News sites seems to flush all memories too soon!

macxpress

I don't think Apple meant for the initial revision of AVP to be a mass market product. It's in its very very early stages, seems like it's a pain in the ass to mass produce and is expensive for anyone wanting to buy it. Even if it does 300-400,000 sales I'd say thats pretty good and enough to get developers on board with making apps. As the product matures and gets cheaper to build there will be price decreases and also new features that may entice people holding out. 

charlesn

TBeaubien said:

As outlined on DaringFireball.net in early May, John Gruber pointed out that there's no capacity for making more than around 450K VisionPro units and any "expectations" from outside bullshit artists are just that - bullshit.

https://daringfireball.net/linked/2024/05/06/vision-pro-sales-are-going-just-about-as-expected

Absolutely correct, and this exact number was reported by other sources as far back as July of last year. Essentially, the complexity of manufacturing the Vision Pro constrains yield and thus supply and there's no current capacity for expansion. So you have this circle jerk of bullshite where unnamed "analysts" are "forecasting" the same units number that has been known for a year and trying to spin that as a "failure" for Apple. Of course, it's in the interests of consumer tech competitors to try and get a "Vision Pro is a failure" story out there, hoping that the FUD might kneecap future purchases, maybe get developers wondering if the platform will make it, etc. Fact is, Apple has brought something to market that is SO radically ahead of what anyone else is doing that competitors need to buy time. And then you have the idiot VP of IDC, who obviously doesn't get Vision Pro at all, stating that its success is dependent on content, as if this is just another headset for gaming and movies. 

blastdoor

The Vision Pro's success, regardless of its price, will ultimately depend on the available content

If by ‘content’ he means consumable content, like movies or games, I think he’s wrong. The compelling use-case for AVP is productivity. The examples of AVP being used in surgery are the kinds of examples that will determine its success. The thing that made the apple II a success was visicalc; the thing that made the Mac a success was desktop publishing. In 2024 dollars, the Apple IIe started at $6000. Few people would have paid that amount of money primarily to play Brickout. 

Another key consideration about the Apple IIe is that it was, in a sense, aimed at developers. By that, I mean that it came with Apple BASIC and there was an assumption that anybody buying the Apple II would be writing programs for it, even if just for their own use. 

I can’t say I know what apple’s plans and expectations are, but I think the plan *should* be for this to primarily be aimed at developers and professional/business use-cases where the benefits of excellent AR outweigh the sticker price and other drawbacks of the device.

Once AVP is successful there, then it can go to the next level with consumers. But that’s probably 5 years from now.

discountopinion

Personally this is totally inline with my expectations as an investor and an apple fanboi. I am in the market for an AVP, but i cannot justify the expense this year as many other competing asks of upgrades in the apple ecosystem. Apple’s share of wallet for the diehard users may be an issue here as they are likely saturated.

If they reach 0.5M units this year across multiple geographies it will give them invaluable real world user feedback for the next iteration of product. This is a major and potentially self funded R&D win.

Several other adjacent product areas to the iPhone and Mac have been slow starters and progressively added up to healthy business lines completing the overall experience.

I see AVP in the enterprise space being a mass adoption use case once the apps and company testing has progressed far enough. Corporate adoption of iPhones, iPads and Mac’s went through a similar curve. Many many use cases being perfected in industry using AVP and thus true adoption has not even started yet.

Maybe there will be a V2 next year or at least VisionOS 3 will further refine the experience based on the year of experimentation, testing etc which may make AVP 1 feel like a defacto AVP2.

My main worry is that AVP is an engineering drain from other more lucrative parts of the Apple ecosystem which may lead to a deceleration in general.

Xed

discountopinion said:

My main worry is that AVP is an engineering drain from other more lucrative parts of the Apple ecosystem which may lead to a deceleration in general.

Apple's engineering and design almost always work to benefit the other. For example, iOS happened because they took macOS and made it very efficient. Then they took aspects of iOS to build into macOS to make it more efficient. Then you have the iPad, Apple TV, and even AVP all coming from the efforts of the iOS-based products before it. I have no doubt that AVP will also lead to making other Apple products even better.

charlesn

iadlib said:

Who in their right mind decided to price it as high as they did? Such a stupid move. This is the kind of product you want wide adoption for. People who bought the first version basically bought a beta. Corporate kickstarter BS

You're so right! Meta has been SO much smarter with its much cheaper Quest headset and... wait for it... THE METAVERSE! Yep, definitely gonna be the next big thing and everybody's gonna wanna be there... or so promised Zuckerberg years ago. And now, billions upon billions of dollars in wasted investment later, no one talks about the metaverse anymore and what Zuck's left with is an also-ran gaming headset with sales that don't amount to a rounding error on the Meta balance sheet. Nice! So smart!  

Apple priced Vision Pro as it needed to be priced to deliver on a properly executed vision of the product. That was the most important goal for v1.0. And by all accounts, it functions extraordinarily well for v1.0 of such an extremely complex product to manufacture for an all-new computing platform. Who buys VP 1.0 at this price point? Early adopters (including companies, the medical industry, etc.) that can afford it and are anxious to see how they might leverage its capabilities; developers interested in developing for a platform that would represent a whole new income stream for them; and the tech-oriented wealthy who simply enjoy having the latest toys. If it seems like VP 1.0 isn't meant for you or the mass market, guess what? It's not. And Apple is fully aware of that. 

Xed

charlesn said:

iadlib said:

Who in their right mind decided to price it as high as they did? Such a stupid move. This is the kind of product you want wide adoption for. People who bought the first version basically bought a beta. Corporate kickstarter BS

You're so right! Meta has been SO much smarter with its much cheaper Quest headset and... wait for it... THE METAVERSE! Yep, definitely gonna be the next big thing and everybody's gonna wanna be there... or so promised Zuckerberg years ago. And now, billions upon billions of dollars in wasted investment later, no one talks about the metaverse anymore and what Zuck's left with is an also-ran gaming headset with sales that don't amount to a rounding error on the Meta balance sheet. Nice! So smart!  

Apple priced Vision Pro as it needed to be priced to deliver on a properly executed vision of the product. That was the most important goal for v1.0. And by all accounts, it functions extraordinarily well for v1.0 of such an extremely complex product to manufacture for an all-new computing platform. Who buys VP 1.0 at this price point? Early adopters (including companies, the medical industry, etc.) that can afford it and are anxious to see how they might leverage its capabilities; developers interested in developing for a platform that would represent a whole new income stream for them; and the tech-oriented wealthy who simply enjoy having the latest toys. If it seems like VP 1.0 isn't meant for you or the mass market, guess what? It's not. And Apple is fully aware of that. 

Let's not forget how Apple shit the bed with the iPhone being priced so high out of the gate. I haven't even heard of the iPhone being mentioned since 2007.