In last election I voted for Trump, Republicans and now I am confused. First Trump wants Apple and other American companies to leave China so Apple started reducing in China and expanded manufacturing in Vietnam, India, etc. Now Trump is not ok with that. He tells India that because India and China buying Russian oil and thus helping Russia to kill Ukranians so I will put 50% tariffs on India but backing out putting 50% traffic on China because China is strong and playing handball. Trump is ok Isarel kills people in Gaza but have problem with Russia.
I think in the name of making America great, Trump needs to stop hurting American companies and American people.
we will see. You might be right , no exemption but we have people in our building who feel otherwise
"Feel" isn't what you'd call "fact."
If you do in fact do this for a living, and I have no reason to believe that you don't, then you know that Apple stock is mercurial, based on very little at all. Please, WWDCs of the past impacting the stock price MORE than today? What a joke.
We've seen bigger price excursions based on less tangible news than $100 billion investment in the US.
Apple stock has not participated in the post liberation day rally, in fact it has retreated while other names have soared .
It’s been a hated name in a bull market last 3 months .
so for a stock with this back drop to be moving this much , it has to be something material. And yes we do go by feel and sources quite a bit , otherwise , if we always wait until things are annoyed on CNBC, it will be too late. That is when we sell the news .
Your post above actually made my point for me.
as we write this , we are getting more confirmation that Apple will indeed be exempt from Indian tariffs
That's not what I'm implying. I don't imply. You're welcome to believe what you want, of course. If you think Apple stock needs "something material" to move by 5%, I don't know what to tell you. I've been at this gig for 13 years in public, and 10 years in private before that, and I can tell you, "material" has very little to do with it.
"Largely unaffected" does not mean it will be paying the 3% tariffs from India it paid on April 1, assuming that the "White House staffer" isn't just lying about it, like both parties routinely do.
We'll see what gets announced.
Nobody is paying 3 percent despite people saying Trump is Taco and because average Tariffs is now 18 across the board.
large unaffected is from the original 25 percent, they are exempt completely from the new 25 percent given to India today for buying Russian oil.
The latter part is why the stock is moving the way it is.
Right, so what the White House said about "largely exempt" is lies, and in line with what Cook predicted for a tariff hit in this quarter.
Lies? Negative.
Apple won’t be paying any tariff as of right now. Other industries will be. Our view is the most tariffs will be absorbed by more foreign companies as they will need to access American market .
Your view is absolutely, utterly, demonstrably wrong.
The proof is in what Apple, WalMart, and more have said publicly. If you need more proof, Tim Cook himself has said that Apple has already paid $800 million last quarter in extra tariffs that it wouldn't have had to pay had this not started, and will pay $1.1 billion in this one. Apple is ALREADY paying more in tariffs. I have no idea where you get "won't be paying any tariff."
I get that you like the president. This is not a good deal for Americans or American businesses, and no amount of you sugar-coating it makes it so.
It is an extra tax that the administration insists the exporting country pays. They have not to date, and probably won't.
I like his policies , 100 percent. And judging by the last election , I am not alone.
i am not going to argue with you as you have a certain “CNN / NY Times “ view on things so we have to agree to disagree
Bottom line
As I said yesterday before the announcement, Apple will be avoiding almost all tariffs going forward. Whatever is left will be absorbed by the foreign company since they depend on Apple and US market
As for other products ,
Exporting countries and companies will absorb most of the tariffs because they need the American market
US Companies like Costco will ask for a tariff discount ( mark down equal to tariff rate) to take products going forward , if Chinese companies at 25 percent tariff isn’t willing too, maybe Vietnam will at 20 percent, or maybe EU at 5 percent will step up. They will fight it out for access to American market .
Thatbis largely how things will work going forward .
i will be happy to revisit this in 1 year to see who is right
Just a side note that just came in to my desk , in regards to the Apple supply chain , many from Taiwan , who our company works with closely,
Many Taiwanese suppliers had opened factories in Mexico after USMCA in 2017. They are now all looking for empty factories in Texas, Arizona and trying to move out of Mexico into the USA.
we will see. You might be right , no exemption but we have people in our building who feel otherwise
"Feel" isn't what you'd call "fact."
If you do in fact do this for a living, and I have no reason to believe that you don't, then you know that Apple stock is mercurial, based on very little at all. Please, WWDCs of the past impacting the stock price MORE than today? What a joke.
We've seen bigger price excursions based on less tangible news than $100 billion investment in the US.
Apple stock has not participated in the post liberation day rally, in fact it has retreated while other names have soared .
It’s been a hated name in a bull market last 3 months .
so for a stock with this back drop to be moving this much , it has to be something material. And yes we do go by feel and sources quite a bit , otherwise , if we always wait until things are annoyed on CNBC, it will be too late. That is when we sell the news .
Your post above actually made my point for me.
as we write this , we are getting more confirmation that Apple will indeed be exempt from Indian tariffs
That's not what I'm implying. I don't imply. You're welcome to believe what you want, of course. If you think Apple stock needs "something material" to move by 5%, I don't know what to tell you. I've been at this gig for 13 years in public, and 10 years in private before that, and I can tell you, "material" has very little to do with it.
"Largely unaffected" does not mean it will be paying the 3% tariffs from India it paid on April 1, assuming that the "White House staffer" isn't just lying about it, like both parties routinely do.
We'll see what gets announced.
Nobody is paying 3 percent despite people saying Trump is Taco and because average Tariffs is now 18 across the board.
large unaffected is from the original 25 percent, they are exempt completely from the new 25 percent given to India today for buying Russian oil.
The latter part is why the stock is moving the way it is.
Right, so what the White House said about "largely exempt" is lies, and in line with what Cook predicted for a tariff hit in this quarter.
Lies? Negative.
Apple won’t be paying any tariff as of right now. Other industries will be. Our view is the most tariffs will be absorbed by more foreign companies as they will need to access American market .
Your view is absolutely, utterly, demonstrably wrong.
The proof is in what Apple, WalMart, and more have said publicly. If you need more proof, Tim Cook himself has said that Apple has already paid $800 million last quarter in extra tariffs that it wouldn't have had to pay had this not started, and will pay $1.1 billion in this one. Apple is ALREADY paying more in tariffs. I have no idea where you get "won't be paying any tariff."
I get that you like the president. This is not a good deal for Americans or American businesses, and no amount of you sugar-coating it makes it so.
It is an extra tax that the administration insists the exporting country pays. They have not to date, and probably won't.
I like his policies , 100 percent. And judging by the last election , I am not alone.
i am not going to argue with you as you have a certain “CNN / NY Times “ view on things so we have to agree to disagree
Bottom line
As I said yesterday before the announcement, Apple will be avoiding almost all tariffs going forward. Whatever is left will be absorbed by the foreign company since they depend on Apple and US market
As for other products ,
Exporting countries and companies will absorb most of the tariffs because they need the American market
US Companies like Costco will ask for a tariff discount ( mark down equal to tariff rate) to take products going forward , if Chinese companies at 25 percent tariff isn’t willing too, maybe Vietnam will at 20 percent, or maybe EU at 5 percent will step up. They will fight it out for access to American market .
Thatbis largely how things will work going forward .
i will be happy to revisit this in 1 year to see who is right
The United States brought in about $100 billion in tariff revenue in the last five months. $30 billion in the last month. 3 times as much as was brought in last year. And it's just sitting in the treasury not being used for anything for some reason.
That money has primarily come from consumers pockets in the United States. Prices on goods are going up and a steady increase is going to turn up sharply this month thanks to renewed high tariffs starting today.
And while there's some discussion about putting it towards our massive $1.3 trillion deficit this year (less than 1%). It's also discussing stimulus checks, which would act as a kind of tax refund since the government is just giving consumers the money they took via tariffs back, which could trigger a recession.
It's a really bad situation for our economy, and it seems the only way to fix it is to go back to our old tariff system and re-establish what was one of the strongest global trade economies in recent years.
Companies aren't paying the tariffs. There's no evidence of that. But there is plenty of evidence in people paying the tariffs as prices go up. Walmart is warning of significant prices ranges, Procter & Gamble will also be raising prices, and goods like coffee, beef, and lumber continue to go up in price. Once these India tariffs and the new semiconductor tariffs kick in, our electronics (minus Apple) are about to get much more expensive too.
And with the global economy in shambles because of the unnecessary tariff war started by the United States, customers have less money to spend on extras like smartphones and vacations, because they're struggling to pay for basic necessities. The United States economy has gone from one of the strongest in the world to this pitiful state in just eight months. There are fewer jobs, the overall economy is down, the dollar is weak, and goods cost more.
These aren't some liberal agenda, they're numbers. I don't know how people argue with numbers.
And even if you don't like numbers, Trump's Treasury Secretary just said that tariffs are paid by the importers in the United States and can choose to pass that cost on to consumers. So much for tariffs being paid by the other countries.
And if for some reason Trump's administration publicly saying so and the numbers showing it isn't enough to show that tariffs are paid by consumers in the United States, I don't know what to tell you.
Comments
i am not going to argue with you as you have a certain “CNN / NY Times “ view on things so we have to agree to disagree
Bottom line
As I said yesterday before the announcement, Apple will be avoiding almost all tariffs going forward. Whatever is left will be absorbed by the foreign company since they depend on Apple and US market
Exporting countries and companies will absorb most of the tariffs because they need the American market
US Companies like Costco will ask for a tariff discount ( mark down equal to tariff rate) to take products going forward , if Chinese companies at 25 percent tariff isn’t willing too, maybe Vietnam will at 20 percent, or maybe EU at 5 percent will step up. They will fight it out for access to American market .
Thatbis largely how things will work going forward .
i will be happy to revisit this in 1 year to see who is right
Many Taiwanese suppliers had opened factories in Mexico after USMCA in 2017. They are now all looking for empty factories in Texas, Arizona and trying to move out of Mexico into the USA.
And while there's some discussion about putting it towards our massive $1.3 trillion deficit this year (less than 1%). It's also discussing stimulus checks, which would act as a kind of tax refund since the government is just giving consumers the money they took via tariffs back, which could trigger a recession.
It's a really bad situation for our economy, and it seems the only way to fix it is to go back to our old tariff system and re-establish what was one of the strongest global trade economies in recent years.
Companies aren't paying the tariffs. There's no evidence of that. But there is plenty of evidence in people paying the tariffs as prices go up. Walmart is warning of significant prices ranges, Procter & Gamble will also be raising prices, and goods like coffee, beef, and lumber continue to go up in price. Once these India tariffs and the new semiconductor tariffs kick in, our electronics (minus Apple) are about to get much more expensive too.
And with the global economy in shambles because of the unnecessary tariff war started by the United States, customers have less money to spend on extras like smartphones and vacations, because they're struggling to pay for basic necessities. The United States economy has gone from one of the strongest in the world to this pitiful state in just eight months. There are fewer jobs, the overall economy is down, the dollar is weak, and goods cost more.
These aren't some liberal agenda, they're numbers. I don't know how people argue with numbers.