[edit: So I remember almost 3 years ago, when people at AI were saying, “Everybody knows Apple doesn’t update hardware at the Tokyo show because blah-blah-blah...”
So I bought my AGP G4 two weeks before they introduced faster processors (and the ability to dual-procs, which my Sawtooth can’t do).]
I'm not expecting an iBook refresh based on past performance, but on the other hand Apple loves surprises.
The G4 has long been expected to go to .13 micron (or better) process right about now. That should allow for a cool enough processor to put in an iBook. And you can bet Apple wants to do this: a G4 iBook means a portable multimedia workstation for students. Steve has been telegraphing his desire to get media creation tools into the hands of kids for years now.
Now that there are two iBook designs, Apple can keep the "opaque white" G3 iBook around as a low end option and price it aggressively - maybe call it "iBook" and the G4 version "iBook DV."
On top of all this, we have from moki (if memory serves) that one chipmaker or another is "sandbagging" - i.e., not telling us everything. iMacs haven't been updated in so long that they have to be reengineering them in a significant way. OS X 10.3 is coming, and so are updates to several iApps. And, of course, Mac OS 9 will no longer boot on models introduced after Jan 1, 2003. So this all adds up to a fairly tumultuous MWSF - and possibly, a flurry of announcements in the months following.
I don't really know what to expect, and I'm wary of getting my hopes up too high. But on the other hand, there are a lot of signs pointing to a lot of aggressive product releases coming out of Cupertino.
<strong>I'm not expecting an iBook refresh based on past performance, but on the other hand Apple loves surprises.
</strong><hr></blockquote>
Anyone notice it's been very quiet out there? Yeah... maybe too quiet.
Look at the MacWorld thread. It's like, 6 months old and only three pages long. Maybe Apple is changing its strategy. It will be really quite (i.e., no "Way beyond rumor sites" Marklar, er... malarkey), and will release some decent hardware for a change.
It's all about the chips now. Waiting has been Apple's fault. They should have gone to all dual pro machines and matching speeds in the consumer machines at the same time. That would have left us with 867, 1Ghz and 1.25Ghz SP iMacs, mebbe 1.2Ghz at the high-end (for a 133Mhz bus, only because iDunno where you can find 166Mhz SDR) But they didn't.
That suggests to me that they figured adding a 17" was an easier upgrade than re-doing the insides -- GF4MX is a drop in replacement for 2MX, no real changes there.
I think they're waiting on faster .13u chips. Maybe those will be 200Mhz FSB 7457 or RapidIO 7457RM, and certainly they're waiting for PPC970, but I really think that they'll announce anything that they have a legitimate shot a shipping within 3 months time, just like they did with the FP iMacs.
iBooks themselves have been updated as quickly as 4 months apart. If CPU's are ready, in whatever lineup, I believe real DDR solutions are waiting for them...
I'm not expecting an iBook refresh based on past performance, but on the other hand Apple loves surprises.</strong>
I think you have to respect the channel and the inventory (or the lack of one), so I don't think Apple will be releasing new iBooks within 3 months of the October iBook refresh, and a pretty decent one as well.
<strong>The G4 has long been expected to go to .13 micron (or better) process right about now.</strong>
Now?! Hehe, this is the only reason I wanted to reply to your post. How about Motorola should have shipped them Q4 2001 for a MWSF02 launch!
As it stands now, Motorola is even late, well they have a month, to ship its own vitally important MPC8540 and MPC8560 communications processors. Their 0.13u fab is having troubles.
<strong>I don't really know what to expect, and I'm wary of getting my hopes up too high.</strong>
I'd expect steady evolution because it maximizes Apple's revenue
I'm not expecting an iBook refresh based on past performance, but on the other hand Apple loves surprises.
[qb]I think you have to respect the channel and the inventory (or the lack of one), so I don't think Apple will be releasing new iBooks within 3 months of the October iBook refresh, and a pretty decent one as well.</strong><hr></blockquote>
That's the biggest argument against anything of this sort happening, I agree.
So maybe they'll wait until Tokyo.
[quote]The G4 has long been expected to go to .13 micron (or better) process right about now.
<strong>Now?! Hehe, this is the only reason I wanted to reply to your post. How about Motorola should have shipped them Q4 2001 for a MWSF02 launch!</strong><hr></blockquote>
Well, yeah, but this is Motorola. Without regard to where the rest of the industry is, Mot seems to be readying to move the G4 to a new process at long last.
[quote]<strong>As it stands now, Motorola is even late, well they have a month, to ship its own vitally important MPC8540 and MPC8560 communications processors. Their 0.13u fab is having troubles.</strong><hr></blockquote>
I'm not banking on their using their own fab. Dust bunnies and CPUs don't get along well. I'm thinking of the agreement they signed to roll out a fab with two other companies whose names I'm spacing on. That was supposed to go online some time around now, give or take a month or two. Since there are other companies - and therefor, better management and more capital - involved, I actually expect that fab to do the job in a timely manner (relative to its going online, not relative to the industry ). The article I read mentioned .1 micron, but that might be too much to hope for.
[quote]<strong>I don't really know what to expect, and I'm wary of getting my hopes up too high.</strong><hr></blockquote>
So am I. I'm more curious about the iMac, actually, since that and the eMac have been just about dormant since their introduction. But if Mot starts shipping a G4 cool enough to go in an iBook, Apple would be nuts not to ship a G4 iBook at the earliest opportunity. Even if that's not until Tokyo or so.
[quote]<strong>I'd expect steady evolution because it maximizes Apple's revenue </strong><hr></blockquote>
Except that that only works when you're in a comfortable position. Apple isn't in a terribly comfortable position right now. The last few updates have been more significant than steady evolution would predict, for instance.
Comments
<strong>There will NOT be any updates to the iBooks or PowerBooks in January. Period. Anyone saying otherwise is either clueless or very ill-informed.
</strong><hr></blockquote>
Well, thanks for settling that. Since you know everything, can you give me the Lotto numbers for this weekend?
As they say:
“Past performance does not indicate future results.”
[edit: So I remember almost 3 years ago, when people at AI were saying, “Everybody knows Apple doesn’t update hardware at the Tokyo show because blah-blah-blah...”
So I bought my AGP G4 two weeks before they introduced faster processors (and the ability to dual-procs, which my Sawtooth can’t do).]
[ 12-02-2002: Message edited by: GardenOfEarthlyDelights ]</p>
The G4 has long been expected to go to .13 micron (or better) process right about now. That should allow for a cool enough processor to put in an iBook. And you can bet Apple wants to do this: a G4 iBook means a portable multimedia workstation for students. Steve has been telegraphing his desire to get media creation tools into the hands of kids for years now.
Now that there are two iBook designs, Apple can keep the "opaque white" G3 iBook around as a low end option and price it aggressively - maybe call it "iBook" and the G4 version "iBook DV."
On top of all this, we have from moki (if memory serves) that one chipmaker or another is "sandbagging" - i.e., not telling us everything. iMacs haven't been updated in so long that they have to be reengineering them in a significant way. OS X 10.3 is coming, and so are updates to several iApps. And, of course, Mac OS 9 will no longer boot on models introduced after Jan 1, 2003. So this all adds up to a fairly tumultuous MWSF - and possibly, a flurry of announcements in the months following.
I don't really know what to expect, and I'm wary of getting my hopes up too high. But on the other hand, there are a lot of signs pointing to a lot of aggressive product releases coming out of Cupertino.
<strong>I'm not expecting an iBook refresh based on past performance, but on the other hand Apple loves surprises.
</strong><hr></blockquote>
Anyone notice it's been very quiet out there? Yeah... maybe too quiet.
Look at the MacWorld thread. It's like, 6 months old and only three pages long. Maybe Apple is changing its strategy. It will be really quite (i.e., no "Way beyond rumor sites" Marklar, er... malarkey), and will release some decent hardware for a change.
A geek can dream, can't he?
That suggests to me that they figured adding a 17" was an easier upgrade than re-doing the insides -- GF4MX is a drop in replacement for 2MX, no real changes there.
I think they're waiting on faster .13u chips. Maybe those will be 200Mhz FSB 7457 or RapidIO 7457RM, and certainly they're waiting for PPC970, but I really think that they'll announce anything that they have a legitimate shot a shipping within 3 months time, just like they did with the FP iMacs.
iBooks themselves have been updated as quickly as 4 months apart. If CPU's are ready, in whatever lineup, I believe real DDR solutions are waiting for them...
I'm not expecting an iBook refresh based on past performance, but on the other hand Apple loves surprises.</strong>
I think you have to respect the channel and the inventory (or the lack of one), so I don't think Apple will be releasing new iBooks within 3 months of the October iBook refresh, and a pretty decent one as well.
<strong>The G4 has long been expected to go to .13 micron (or better) process right about now.</strong>
Now?! Hehe, this is the only reason I wanted to reply to your post. How about Motorola should have shipped them Q4 2001 for a MWSF02 launch!
As it stands now, Motorola is even late, well they have a month, to ship its own vitally important MPC8540 and MPC8560 communications processors. Their 0.13u fab is having troubles.
<strong>I don't really know what to expect, and I'm wary of getting my hopes up too high.</strong>
I'd expect steady evolution because it maximizes Apple's revenue
<strong>Originally posted by Amorph:
I'm not expecting an iBook refresh based on past performance, but on the other hand Apple loves surprises.
[qb]I think you have to respect the channel and the inventory (or the lack of one), so I don't think Apple will be releasing new iBooks within 3 months of the October iBook refresh, and a pretty decent one as well.</strong><hr></blockquote>
That's the biggest argument against anything of this sort happening, I agree.
So maybe they'll wait until Tokyo.
[quote]The G4 has long been expected to go to .13 micron (or better) process right about now.
<strong>Now?! Hehe, this is the only reason I wanted to reply to your post. How about Motorola should have shipped them Q4 2001 for a MWSF02 launch!</strong><hr></blockquote>
Well, yeah, but this is Motorola. Without regard to where the rest of the industry is, Mot seems to be readying to move the G4 to a new process at long last.
[quote]<strong>As it stands now, Motorola is even late, well they have a month, to ship its own vitally important MPC8540 and MPC8560 communications processors. Their 0.13u fab is having troubles.</strong><hr></blockquote>
I'm not banking on their using their own fab. Dust bunnies and CPUs don't get along well. I'm thinking of the agreement they signed to roll out a fab with two other companies whose names I'm spacing on. That was supposed to go online some time around now, give or take a month or two. Since there are other companies - and therefor, better management and more capital - involved, I actually expect that fab to do the job in a timely manner (relative to its going online, not relative to the industry
[quote]<strong>I don't really know what to expect, and I'm wary of getting my hopes up too high.</strong><hr></blockquote>
So am I. I'm more curious about the iMac, actually, since that and the eMac have been just about dormant since their introduction. But if Mot starts shipping a G4 cool enough to go in an iBook, Apple would be nuts not to ship a G4 iBook at the earliest opportunity. Even if that's not until Tokyo or so.
[quote]<strong>I'd expect steady evolution because it maximizes Apple's revenue
Except that that only works when you're in a comfortable position. Apple isn't in a terribly comfortable position right now. The last few updates have been more significant than steady evolution would predict, for instance.
<strong>
So maybe they'll wait until Tokyo.
</strong><hr></blockquote>
Most probably there will be not MW Expo Tokyo this time. See <a href="http://www.macbidouille.com/niouzcontenu.php?date=2002-12-03#4014"; target="_blank">here</a>. Could that mean something (other than financial issues etc.)?