" At the current rate, sales of the Power Mac G5 could surpass 300,000 units for the quarter, analysts said." ...said a recent news byte here at AI. Sure, rumors are rumors, but anyway, I think of 206,000 units as being slightly disappointing...
" At the current rate, sales of the Power Mac G5 could surpass 300,000 units for the quarter, analysts said." ...said a recent news byte here at AI. Sure, rumors are rumors, but anyway, I think of 206,000 units as being slightly disappointing...
Anderson talked about this, actually. The single 1.8 -> dual 1.8 switchover hurt, because Apple had to stop producing a model and sit waiting for the channel to drain.
For the other explanation, look to the 197,000 PowerBooks Apple moved.
I wonder what will become of the iMac given not only the eMac, which I think can be dealt with more easily if it weren't for the fact that laptops are taking over as Joe Six-Pack's computer at home.
Anderson talked about this, actually. The single 1.8 -> dual 1.8 switchover hurt, because Apple had to stop producing a model and sit waiting for the channel to drain.
For the other explanation, look to the 197,000 PowerBooks Apple moved.
Sure, but that's still not good. Apple's basically slicing the same 800K unit pie different ways each quarter. As I think Power Macs are still quite a bit better with sales margins than PowerBooks, this isn't particularly good news.
500K Power Macs sold in two quarters? Like I said over the past quarter, wishful thinking.
Apple selling 900K, 1M+ units this quarter? Wishful thinking. Now where are all those people who called me a moron for saying Power Mac sales weren't that hot?
829K Macs vs 44.6M total PC shipments = 1.86% marketshare for the quarter.
If I recall, Apple only sold something like 147,000 PowerMacs last quarter, so any growth is good given how much PowerMac sales had stagnated.
I'm pleased because I bought AAPL at 15.94
They sold 221K Power Macs last quarter. Of course year over year stats are more important, but still, the 800K mark has been pretty stable for a while now. And that's not good considering how PC shipments have been growing. Apple can't be satisfied with maintaining their current #s of Macs shipped.
Sure, but that's still not good. Apple's basically slicing the same 800K unit pie different ways each quarter. As I think Power Macs are still quite a bit better with sales margins than PowerBooks, this isn't particularly good news.
This is true, but not for lack of trying. It simply means that Apple is selling primarily into their installed base, and there hasn't been any significant return yet from any of their efforts to expand market share.
As I've said before, many times, that's a tough nut to crack. The iPod is Apple's best shot, currently, but it's still something of a hope. The sad fact is that there is no longer any of the curiosity or flexibility about computers that their used to be. Everyone expects to learn one way of doing things and use that one way until they're cooling in the ground, and that doesn't help Apple's cause (except for sales into the installed base...). The HP Digital Music Player isn't due till September (Fred slipped up!), so its effect for good or ill won't register for months yet.
We'll see what Apple has in store for the 20th anniversary of the Mac. It should be able to make a huge splash, but whether it makes waves is the problem. Fred Anderson also did mention the problem of the iMac's price point, which tells me that they know where the sweet spot is and they know they're not hitting it, which they would probably not admit unless they had an answer in the works...
But there's no one thing that is the foolproof solution to gaining market share, alas.
The HP Digital Music Player isn't due till September (Fred slipped up!)
September? HP's CEO Carly Fiorina gave June as the start date in her presentation breaking the news of their deal with Apple. Did something set the date back?
It simply means that Apple is selling primarily into their installed base, and there hasn't been any significant return yet from any of their efforts to expand market share.
As I've said before, many times, that's a tough nut to crack. The iPod is Apple's best shot, currently, but it's still something of a hope.
-iPods are not only cool, but when compared to other MP3 players, it's the best value.
-Powerbooks are selling strong because they not only look good but are priced competitively against wintel offerings
-PowerMacs sales are lukewarm as they are still priced too high plus hold outs for 2nd gen faster offerings.
-iMacs sales are sinking...pricey, with lacklustre performance.
These numbers seem to explain the reason why certain Apple products succeed and others fail. It's simple....value=success
" At the current rate, sales of the Power Mac G5 could surpass 300,000 units for the quarter, analysts said." ...said a recent news byte here at AI. Sure, rumors are rumors, but anyway, I think of 206,000 units as being slightly disappointing...
Does the 206,000 figure for PowerMacs include the pre-orders? No, correct? I'm just not quite sure how things are counted, by order date or ship date or what. If the pre-orders weren't included in this quarter, then is it known what the number for G5s was last quarter?
As for disappointment, perhaps it is a bit. But I think people may have overestimated based on the reports of stronger than expected sales of the top model, thinking that this reflected greater sales overall and not just a shift towards the high-end.
Moving forward, prospects look good though. The G5, xServe & OS X have real potential in scientific and technical computing. Also Macs are becoming more popular in the broadcast market. Organizations switching was never going to happen all in a burst like Mac users upgrading. That will show up in growth as organizations go through their purchase cycles. These products make for a compelling combination, but it still takes time for that to play out.
The under $1000 "sweet spot" comment was most interesting to me, combined with the comment that iMac pricing was pretty good (unsaid: but not value/performance). They must be working on something for that "sweet spot". Given current eMac and iMac pricing, I'd make the following guesses:
--Apple rides out the eMac with further upgrades and lowered prices, but no major redesign, pushing down-market.
--The iMac continues to move up-market (following on the 20") when it goes G5. The redesign will be something radical to make it a more distinctive (distinctive in more than just looks/ergonomics) showcase product.
--Apple introduces the headless box people have been clamoring for. This would allow them to have something with a low "headline" price, that could be combined with an LCD or a 3rd party CRT as a "value" option. With the right configurations, it could be suitable to both the home user and as a business offering.
Nothing too crazy in that. I think Apple (Steve in particular) now realizes that the iMac can't be both their general consumer machine and their showcase product. The eMac aims for cheap and can't get to radical for the educational market. Neither can hit the "sweet spot", but a headless machine could, and could be flexible enough for business and home markets. And it won't trample on either the eMac or the iMac (if it moves resolutely up-market).
Here's the catch: This headless machine -- aluminum or white?
That's the only part I can't sort out. And what worries me is that that might be a problem for Apple too. Any other company wouldn't let that stand in their way, but Apple cares about stuff like that. And so do I.
Does the 206,000 figure for PowerMacs include the pre-orders? No, correct? I'm just not quite sure how things are counted, by order date or ship date or what. If the pre-orders weren't included in this quarter, then is it known what the number for G5s was last quarter?
I'm not sure what you mean. G5s started shipping in Apple's Q4'03, so preorders go there.
Apple shipped 221,000 Power Macs in Q4'03. Add the 206,000 from October to now and Apple clearly hasn't gotten anywhere near 300,000 units per quarter, nor did they pass 500,000 units shipped like AI alleged weeks ago.
People were also telling me that the delayed shipping of G5s in Q4 would adversely affect its sales. Perhaps that's true, but what's the excuse for Q1'04?
Apple's Q4 = a calendar Q3, and Q1 = Q4.
Quote:
Here's the catch: This headless machine -- aluminum or white?
Non-existent because there's no reason to believe the headless machine will grow sales beyong 750-850K units per quarter.
I'm not sure what you mean. G5s started shipping in Apple's Q4'03, so preorders go there.
Apple shipped 221,000 Power Macs in Q4'03. Add the 206,000 from October to now and Apple clearly hasn't gotten anywhere near 300,000 units per quarter, nor did they pass 500,000 units shipped like AI alleged weeks ago.
People were also telling me that the delayed shipping of G5s in Q4 would adversely affect its sales. Perhaps that's true, but what's the excuse for Q1'04?
Thanks. That was the info I was interested in.
I'm not sure it's a matter of an "excuse" here. As I said, I think the hype was overblown, and people forget that even a very compelling product won't cause a big switch right away: you'll get the usual burst of Mac users upgrading, and others will take time.
What I found encouraging in the conference call was the "unit sales are first priority" bit. That would seem to indicate that Apple is aiming to create compelling products offering better value than the competition. That should produce better growth over time.
Quote:
Originally posted by Eugene
Non-existent because there's no reason to believe the headless machine will grow sales beyong 750-850K units per quarter.
First, you'll have to do better than say "there's no reason"; that's something to be argued for -- and I, for one, would like to know why you say it.
Second, there have been plenty of discussions here about the advantages of a headless box aimed at those markets; I'm not going to repeat those arguments, nor do I agree with all of them, but I think it's safe to say on that basis that there is at least some demand for such a product. So why wouldn't that result in increased sales? Or you don't think there is a market for it? Do you think it's only going to steal sales from other models in Apple's lineup? Apple shipped 829K units this past quarter; you don't think it will add even 25K more?
Third, I pointed out some good reasons to think that such a product might be coming based on Apple's current lineup and comments made during the analysts call. How do you see Apple hitting that "sweet spot"? With the eMac or iMac and, if so, how? Or do you think they aren't going to try? Do you not see the iMac heading up-market as a showcase product? What do you make of those comments?
Comments
Originally posted by MCQ
Couple comments based on the summary data:
- Only 206,000 PowerMacs sold for the quarter.
Hmm... I have to admit, I hoped for more...
" At the current rate, sales of the Power Mac G5 could surpass 300,000 units for the quarter, analysts said." ...said a recent news byte here at AI. Sure, rumors are rumors, but anyway, I think of 206,000 units as being slightly disappointing...
The analyst couldn't goad him into saying what Apple would do about that, of course.
Originally posted by Amorph
Anderson admitted that the iMac's price point outside the industry "sweet spot" below $1000 "might have" contributed to weak sales.
The analyst couldn't goad him into saying what Apple would do about that, of course.
Come on Apple, bring out a G5 iMac for under $1000!
Originally posted by HOM
"Better pro product sales in the March quarter" HINT HINT
Yes, the March quarter meaning the one that ends in March or the one that begins at the end of March?
Originally posted by Messiahtosh
Yes, the March quarter meaning the one that ends in March or the one that begins at the end of March?
The one that ends in March. That's how they refer to quarters. This past CC was about the December quarter.
Originally posted by durandal
Hmm... I have to admit, I hoped for more...
" At the current rate, sales of the Power Mac G5 could surpass 300,000 units for the quarter, analysts said." ...said a recent news byte here at AI. Sure, rumors are rumors, but anyway, I think of 206,000 units as being slightly disappointing...
Anderson talked about this, actually. The single 1.8 -> dual 1.8 switchover hurt, because Apple had to stop producing a model and sit waiting for the channel to drain.
For the other explanation, look to the 197,000 PowerBooks Apple moved.
I wonder what will become of the iMac given not only the eMac, which I think can be dealt with more easily if it weren't for the fact that laptops are taking over as Joe Six-Pack's computer at home.
Originally posted by Amorph
Anderson talked about this, actually. The single 1.8 -> dual 1.8 switchover hurt, because Apple had to stop producing a model and sit waiting for the channel to drain.
For the other explanation, look to the 197,000 PowerBooks Apple moved.
Sure, but that's still not good. Apple's basically slicing the same 800K unit pie different ways each quarter. As I think Power Macs are still quite a bit better with sales margins than PowerBooks, this isn't particularly good news.
500K Power Macs sold in two quarters? Like I said over the past quarter, wishful thinking.
Apple selling 900K, 1M+ units this quarter? Wishful thinking. Now where are all those people who called me a moron for saying Power Mac sales weren't that hot?
829K Macs vs 44.6M total PC shipments = 1.86% marketshare for the quarter.
I'm pleased because I bought AAPL at 15.94
Originally posted by agent302
If I recall, Apple only sold something like 147,000 PowerMacs last quarter, so any growth is good given how much PowerMac sales had stagnated.
I'm pleased because I bought AAPL at 15.94
They sold 221K Power Macs last quarter. Of course year over year stats are more important, but still, the 800K mark has been pretty stable for a while now. And that's not good considering how PC shipments have been growing. Apple can't be satisfied with maintaining their current #s of Macs shipped.
Originally posted by Eugene
Sure, but that's still not good. Apple's basically slicing the same 800K unit pie different ways each quarter. As I think Power Macs are still quite a bit better with sales margins than PowerBooks, this isn't particularly good news.
This is true, but not for lack of trying. It simply means that Apple is selling primarily into their installed base, and there hasn't been any significant return yet from any of their efforts to expand market share.
As I've said before, many times, that's a tough nut to crack. The iPod is Apple's best shot, currently, but it's still something of a hope. The sad fact is that there is no longer any of the curiosity or flexibility about computers that their used to be. Everyone expects to learn one way of doing things and use that one way until they're cooling in the ground, and that doesn't help Apple's cause (except for sales into the installed base...). The HP Digital Music Player isn't due till September (Fred slipped up!), so its effect for good or ill won't register for months yet.
We'll see what Apple has in store for the 20th anniversary of the Mac. It should be able to make a huge splash, but whether it makes waves is the problem. Fred Anderson also did mention the problem of the iMac's price point, which tells me that they know where the sweet spot is and they know they're not hitting it, which they would probably not admit unless they had an answer in the works...
But there's no one thing that is the foolproof solution to gaining market share, alas.
Originally posted by Amorph
The HP Digital Music Player isn't due till September (Fred slipped up!)
September? HP's CEO Carly Fiorina gave June as the start date in her presentation breaking the news of their deal with Apple. Did something set the date back?
Originally posted by Amorph
It simply means that Apple is selling primarily into their installed base, and there hasn't been any significant return yet from any of their efforts to expand market share.
As I've said before, many times, that's a tough nut to crack. The iPod is Apple's best shot, currently, but it's still something of a hope.
-iPods are not only cool, but when compared to other MP3 players, it's the best value.
-Powerbooks are selling strong because they not only look good but are priced competitively against wintel offerings
-PowerMacs sales are lukewarm as they are still priced too high plus hold outs for 2nd gen faster offerings.
-iMacs sales are sinking...pricey, with lacklustre performance.
These numbers seem to explain the reason why certain Apple products succeed and others fail. It's simple....value=success
Originally posted by satchmo
-iPods are not only cool, but when compared to other MP3 players, it's the best value.
-Powerbooks are selling strong because they not only look good but are priced competitively against wintel offerings
-PowerMacs sales are lukewarm as they are still priced too high plus hold outs for 2nd gen faster offerings.
-iMacs sales are sinking...pricey, with lacklustre performance.
These numbers seem to explain the reason why certain Apple products succeed and others fail. It's simple....value=success
See, and when the CFO of Apple says that price is not what is keeping Mac sales down I tend to believe him.
Originally posted by HOM
See, and when the CFO of Apple says that price is not what is keeping Mac sales down I tend to believe him.
There's a difference between price and value.
iPods are a high priced item but comparitively against others, a very good value.
The iMac on the other hand...
Originally posted by durandal
Hmm... I have to admit, I hoped for more...
" At the current rate, sales of the Power Mac G5 could surpass 300,000 units for the quarter, analysts said." ...said a recent news byte here at AI. Sure, rumors are rumors, but anyway, I think of 206,000 units as being slightly disappointing...
Does the 206,000 figure for PowerMacs include the pre-orders? No, correct? I'm just not quite sure how things are counted, by order date or ship date or what. If the pre-orders weren't included in this quarter, then is it known what the number for G5s was last quarter?
As for disappointment, perhaps it is a bit. But I think people may have overestimated based on the reports of stronger than expected sales of the top model, thinking that this reflected greater sales overall and not just a shift towards the high-end.
Moving forward, prospects look good though. The G5, xServe & OS X have real potential in scientific and technical computing. Also Macs are becoming more popular in the broadcast market. Organizations switching was never going to happen all in a burst like Mac users upgrading. That will show up in growth as organizations go through their purchase cycles. These products make for a compelling combination, but it still takes time for that to play out.
The under $1000 "sweet spot" comment was most interesting to me, combined with the comment that iMac pricing was pretty good (unsaid: but not value/performance). They must be working on something for that "sweet spot". Given current eMac and iMac pricing, I'd make the following guesses:
--Apple rides out the eMac with further upgrades and lowered prices, but no major redesign, pushing down-market.
--The iMac continues to move up-market (following on the 20") when it goes G5. The redesign will be something radical to make it a more distinctive (distinctive in more than just looks/ergonomics) showcase product.
--Apple introduces the headless box people have been clamoring for. This would allow them to have something with a low "headline" price, that could be combined with an LCD or a 3rd party CRT as a "value" option. With the right configurations, it could be suitable to both the home user and as a business offering.
Nothing too crazy in that. I think Apple (Steve in particular) now realizes that the iMac can't be both their general consumer machine and their showcase product. The eMac aims for cheap and can't get to radical for the educational market. Neither can hit the "sweet spot", but a headless machine could, and could be flexible enough for business and home markets. And it won't trample on either the eMac or the iMac (if it moves resolutely up-market).
Here's the catch: This headless machine -- aluminum or white?
That's the only part I can't sort out. And what worries me is that that might be a problem for Apple too. Any other company wouldn't let that stand in their way, but Apple cares about stuff like that. And so do I.
Originally posted by jginsbu
Does the 206,000 figure for PowerMacs include the pre-orders? No, correct? I'm just not quite sure how things are counted, by order date or ship date or what. If the pre-orders weren't included in this quarter, then is it known what the number for G5s was last quarter?
I'm not sure what you mean. G5s started shipping in Apple's Q4'03, so preorders go there.
Apple shipped 221,000 Power Macs in Q4'03. Add the 206,000 from October to now and Apple clearly hasn't gotten anywhere near 300,000 units per quarter, nor did they pass 500,000 units shipped like AI alleged weeks ago.
People were also telling me that the delayed shipping of G5s in Q4 would adversely affect its sales. Perhaps that's true, but what's the excuse for Q1'04?
Apple's Q4 = a calendar Q3, and Q1 = Q4.
Here's the catch: This headless machine -- aluminum or white?
Non-existent because there's no reason to believe the headless machine will grow sales beyong 750-850K units per quarter.
Originally posted by Eugene
I'm not sure what you mean. G5s started shipping in Apple's Q4'03, so preorders go there.
Apple shipped 221,000 Power Macs in Q4'03. Add the 206,000 from October to now and Apple clearly hasn't gotten anywhere near 300,000 units per quarter, nor did they pass 500,000 units shipped like AI alleged weeks ago.
People were also telling me that the delayed shipping of G5s in Q4 would adversely affect its sales. Perhaps that's true, but what's the excuse for Q1'04?
Thanks. That was the info I was interested in.
I'm not sure it's a matter of an "excuse" here. As I said, I think the hype was overblown, and people forget that even a very compelling product won't cause a big switch right away: you'll get the usual burst of Mac users upgrading, and others will take time.
What I found encouraging in the conference call was the "unit sales are first priority" bit. That would seem to indicate that Apple is aiming to create compelling products offering better value than the competition. That should produce better growth over time.
Originally posted by Eugene
Non-existent because there's no reason to believe the headless machine will grow sales beyong 750-850K units per quarter.
First, you'll have to do better than say "there's no reason"; that's something to be argued for -- and I, for one, would like to know why you say it.
Second, there have been plenty of discussions here about the advantages of a headless box aimed at those markets; I'm not going to repeat those arguments, nor do I agree with all of them, but I think it's safe to say on that basis that there is at least some demand for such a product. So why wouldn't that result in increased sales? Or you don't think there is a market for it? Do you think it's only going to steal sales from other models in Apple's lineup? Apple shipped 829K units this past quarter; you don't think it will add even 25K more?
Third, I pointed out some good reasons to think that such a product might be coming based on Apple's current lineup and comments made during the analysts call. How do you see Apple hitting that "sweet spot"? With the eMac or iMac and, if so, how? Or do you think they aren't going to try? Do you not see the iMac heading up-market as a showcase product? What do you make of those comments?