my guess was 17¢ per share, but apparently my math was off because I wrote in $62M... of course the correct answer was $60M anyway (minus the $3M in stock gains)... so whoever guessed that wins! (or is it $66M?)
Second, there have been plenty of discussions here about the advantages of a headless box aimed at those markets; I'm not going to repeat those arguments, nor do I agree with all of them, but I think it's safe to say on that basis that there is at least some demand for such a product. So why wouldn't that result in increased sales? Or you don't think there is a market for it? Do you think it's only going to steal sales from other models in Apple's lineup? Apple shipped 829K units this past quarter; you don't think it will add even 25K more?
Economy of scale here. Is the problem really the product line or is it the public perception? Does the current product line really do that bad a job at covering all the bases? I don't think so. Apple needs to find out why it's not keeping up with the rest of the industry. Adding 25K more unit shipments isn't worth it. It's not really finding a new market.
Quote:
Third, I pointed out some good reasons to think that such a product might be coming based on Apple's current lineup and comments made during the analysts call. How do you see Apple hitting that "sweet spot"? With the eMac or iMac and, if so, how? Or do you think they aren't going to try? Do you not see the iMac heading up-market as a showcase product? What do you make of those comments?
Once Apple figures out why it's not reaching out to customers, then they can do the SFF headless iMac thing. For now, I just don't see the point. The SFF market in PC land is a niche. I just think it would arrest potential buyers of both iMacs and Power Macs, and erode sales.
-iPods are not only cool, but when compared to other MP3 players, it's the best value.
-Powerbooks are selling strong because they not only look good but are priced competitively against wintel offerings
-PowerMacs sales are lukewarm as they are still priced too high plus hold outs for 2nd gen faster offerings.
-iMacs sales are sinking...pricey, with lacklustre performance.
These numbers seem to explain the reason why certain Apple products succeed and others fail. It's simple....value=success
I'm surprised at these numbers. Powerbook is okay. The iPod is great.
But I thought the PowerMac would do better. 206K? Still. Reality check. Most tower buyers can get a 3 gig Pentium at the £1k sweet spot here in the UK with decent ram and DVD burner and monitor. They've addressed performance. But vallue and price are high compared to other machines. If they could get a G5 tower for £999 and another a little higher, they could be single processor. Have 3 dual models above those. Y'know, instead of dropping the 15 inch LCD, why didn't they wait until it was cheap enough to bundle it with towers?
I hope Apple get to 980 PowerMacs as soon as they can. If they maintain an aggressive performance pace then they might keep around 250K per quarter with hopes of reaching 300K.
The weakness in Apple's consumer line. 200K ish iMacs? Poor.
I agree with JGbinsu, I think Apple could do with a way of extending the tower under the 1K mark. Mini-tower with monitor bundle.
How else are they going to meet that sweet spot?
It doesn't surprise me that iMac sales are still lacklustre (even more so when you consider they lumped the 'CRT is dead'eMac in with them...) It's not the unit mover the original is. EVEN Fred Anderson himself said it was above the 'sweet spot' for most buyers.
That's quite a telling admission straight from the top.
I think the AIO strategy is flawed. Overpriced and underspecced. The iMac (despite the gorgeous looks) isn't the growth machine it could be.
Take away the iPod sales and it doesn't look good. And this is in a market where PC sales are showing significant growth if you look at Dell and HP figures. I'm sure they don't have a problem selling towers to consumers. Apple merely sold a few more PowerMacs and Powerbooks to their installed base. iBooks static (I don't feel Apple have built on the early success and talk about Powerbook 12 inch cannibalisation all you want...). iMac below average. Poor even.
I think Apple are going to have to get real radical if they ever want to grow their core cpu business. And this is with 70 stores. A switcher campaign behind them...and 730K iPod sales. £300 is not cheap for a music player...but it's still alot cheaper than buying a Mac. And until Apple addresses the value equation in their desktops then they're stuffed.
I dunno. Maybe in a year we'll see an iPod ripple effect in Mac sales..?
The Amorph 'inertia' point is valied. Alot of people still aren't aware of Apple as a computer maker believe it or not. And there is a cost issue. And if Xp is 'good enough' to word and email then..?
I thought with Christmas sales we'd see over 1 million cpu sales.
I'm surprised Matsu aint going all medieval over these cpu numbers...
Apple's transition to an all G5 line can't come soon enough. Looking at the cpu numbers you can see that the G4 debacle caused Apple's core business alot of damage. It's going to take some time to recover.
Take away the iPod sales and it doesn't look good. And this is in a market where PC sales are showing significant growth if you look at Dell and HP figures.
PC sales haven't shown much growth in the past few years. Dell and HP have done well while others, like Gateway, have done horribly. Apple's units-shipped delta is roughly on par with the industry average.
I thought with Christmas sales we'd see over 1 million cpu sales.
You were highly optimistic. Apple itself didn't believe so even though CPU sales in total were higher then they predicted in the previous analyst meeting. These conference calls provide a lot of information about expected earnings and sales. Apple is generally always conservatitive about forthcoming quarters. This time they beat estimates. Next quarter they believe G5 sales will be around 200,000. This is terriffic considering the March quarter is usually the weakest for computer makers during the year.
retiring debt is a fancy way of saying repaying debt. Senior debt is usually secured, so if a company goes bust senior debt holders are paid out of company asset sales before othe debt holders.
Implications? No interest charges, for one, and the ability to borrow whenever they like as they have no current debts.
Comments
Originally posted by Crusader
Ok, I have my guess in, do you?
yeah, I put my guess in before I posted
my guess was 17¢ per share, but apparently my math was off because I wrote in $62M... of course the correct answer was $60M anyway (minus the $3M in stock gains)... so whoever guessed that wins! (or is it $66M?)
I MIGHT be mentioned... but I doubt it...
Originally posted by jginsbu
Second, there have been plenty of discussions here about the advantages of a headless box aimed at those markets; I'm not going to repeat those arguments, nor do I agree with all of them, but I think it's safe to say on that basis that there is at least some demand for such a product. So why wouldn't that result in increased sales? Or you don't think there is a market for it? Do you think it's only going to steal sales from other models in Apple's lineup? Apple shipped 829K units this past quarter; you don't think it will add even 25K more?
Economy of scale here. Is the problem really the product line or is it the public perception? Does the current product line really do that bad a job at covering all the bases? I don't think so. Apple needs to find out why it's not keeping up with the rest of the industry. Adding 25K more unit shipments isn't worth it. It's not really finding a new market.
Third, I pointed out some good reasons to think that such a product might be coming based on Apple's current lineup and comments made during the analysts call. How do you see Apple hitting that "sweet spot"? With the eMac or iMac and, if so, how? Or do you think they aren't going to try? Do you not see the iMac heading up-market as a showcase product? What do you make of those comments?
Once Apple figures out why it's not reaching out to customers, then they can do the SFF headless iMac thing. For now, I just don't see the point. The SFF market in PC land is a niche. I just think it would arrest potential buyers of both iMacs and Power Macs, and erode sales.
-iPods are not only cool, but when compared to other MP3 players, it's the best value.
-Powerbooks are selling strong because they not only look good but are priced competitively against wintel offerings
-PowerMacs sales are lukewarm as they are still priced too high plus hold outs for 2nd gen faster offerings.
-iMacs sales are sinking...pricey, with lacklustre performance.
These numbers seem to explain the reason why certain Apple products succeed and others fail. It's simple....value=success
I'm surprised at these numbers. Powerbook is okay. The iPod is great.
But I thought the PowerMac would do better. 206K? Still. Reality check. Most tower buyers can get a 3 gig Pentium at the £1k sweet spot here in the UK with decent ram and DVD burner and monitor. They've addressed performance. But vallue and price are high compared to other machines. If they could get a G5 tower for £999 and another a little higher, they could be single processor. Have 3 dual models above those. Y'know, instead of dropping the 15 inch LCD, why didn't they wait until it was cheap enough to bundle it with towers?
I hope Apple get to 980 PowerMacs as soon as they can. If they maintain an aggressive performance pace then they might keep around 250K per quarter with hopes of reaching 300K.
The weakness in Apple's consumer line. 200K ish iMacs? Poor.
I agree with JGbinsu, I think Apple could do with a way of extending the tower under the 1K mark. Mini-tower with monitor bundle.
How else are they going to meet that sweet spot?
It doesn't surprise me that iMac sales are still lacklustre (even more so when you consider they lumped the 'CRT is dead'eMac in with them...) It's not the unit mover the original is. EVEN Fred Anderson himself said it was above the 'sweet spot' for most buyers.
That's quite a telling admission straight from the top.
I think the AIO strategy is flawed. Overpriced and underspecced. The iMac (despite the gorgeous looks) isn't the growth machine it could be.
Take away the iPod sales and it doesn't look good. And this is in a market where PC sales are showing significant growth if you look at Dell and HP figures. I'm sure they don't have a problem selling towers to consumers. Apple merely sold a few more PowerMacs and Powerbooks to their installed base. iBooks static (I don't feel Apple have built on the early success and talk about Powerbook 12 inch cannibalisation all you want...). iMac below average. Poor even.
I think Apple are going to have to get real radical if they ever want to grow their core cpu business. And this is with 70 stores. A switcher campaign behind them...and 730K iPod sales. £300 is not cheap for a music player...but it's still alot cheaper than buying a Mac. And until Apple addresses the value equation in their desktops then they're stuffed.
I dunno. Maybe in a year we'll see an iPod ripple effect in Mac sales..?
The Amorph 'inertia' point is valied. Alot of people still aren't aware of Apple as a computer maker believe it or not. And there is a cost issue. And if Xp is 'good enough' to word and email then..?
I thought with Christmas sales we'd see over 1 million cpu sales.
I'm surprised Matsu aint going all medieval over these cpu numbers...
Apple's transition to an all G5 line can't come soon enough. Looking at the cpu numbers you can see that the G4 debacle caused Apple's core business alot of damage. It's going to take some time to recover.
Lemon Bon Bon
Take away the iPod sales and it doesn't look good. And this is in a market where PC sales are showing significant growth if you look at Dell and HP figures.
PC sales haven't shown much growth in the past few years. Dell and HP have done well while others, like Gateway, have done horribly. Apple's units-shipped delta is roughly on par with the industry average.
I thought with Christmas sales we'd see over 1 million cpu sales.
You were highly optimistic. Apple itself didn't believe so even though CPU sales in total were higher then they predicted in the previous analyst meeting. These conference calls provide a lot of information about expected earnings and sales. Apple is generally always conservatitive about forthcoming quarters. This time they beat estimates. Next quarter they believe G5 sales will be around 200,000. This is terriffic considering the March quarter is usually the weakest for computer makers during the year.
retiring debt is a fancy way of saying repaying debt. Senior debt is usually secured, so if a company goes bust senior debt holders are paid out of company asset sales before othe debt holders.
Implications? No interest charges, for one, and the ability to borrow whenever they like as they have no current debts.
Cheers,
David