I feel excellent about myself, as I rode my bike to work today (as I usually do.) However, where is the rubber going to come from for my tires (trees?) and the grease for my chain when the oil goes away? Whales?
Yeah, that's an interesting thing about this article, it's not really listing pollution as a major concern, just the consumption of oil, how much we depend on it, and how it's running out faster than we think.
Does the guy have an agenda besides just "educating people" on Peak Oil? Almost certainly, though I doubt it's political. Either way, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the westernized lifestyle (everyone having a car, everyone eating two or three big meals a day, everyone stuffing their house full of plastic-based products, everyone using a ton of electricity), that we have "modernized ourselves into a corner".
Everyone knows the oil reserves are about to or have already hit their peak production levels, and everyone knows it takes millennia for the earth to create "new reserves"...
Whether this guy is a kook or not, those who are 50 and under are basically fvcked. We are about to encounter some HARSH TIMES. Period. There may even come a time when "The Road Warrior" lifestyle is not that far from the truth (people eating out of dog food cans, little pocket communities of "hoarded oil" protected by an armed militia, etc.) Whether it comes as a result of nuclear war or starvation or something else is irrelevant.
What IS relevant, and what this guy said accurately, is that we have no existing alternative energy source that is:
a) ready to be distrubuted across industrialized nations on a massive scale and on short notice
b) able to easily provide a source of power for any kind of mechanized vehicle
c) able to be easily adapted to grow, package and distribute food
And ugly end of one sort or another is coming for many of us... whether you believe it for religious reasons or scientific ones or political ones... there is simply not enough oil left in the world to support a population of even 4 or 5 billion people, let alone "6 and growing".
The greatest thing about an oil-based civilization, is how easily it can support millions upon millions of people. The worst thing about an oil-based civilization... is how easily it can suport millions upon millions of people. I'm sure there was some visionary 100 years ago who recognized that the oil-based civilization would lead to a civlization so large, as to eventually implode or come crashing back in on itself to a more sustainable level.
Barring a meteor impact or nuclear war, I have little doubt there will be millions of humans populating this planet 100 years from now. But there won't be billions. That is assured.
Sweet dreams, friends. We are guilty of little more than being born too late and taking advantage of some amazing technologies that have made our lives as easy as can be imagined. We did what everyone has always wanted to do, and now the party is coming to and end....
\ I think I'll go watch the Passion of Christ now. It might cheer me up after this thread / reading that site.
Oh I almost forgot: the one Biblical saying that I've always believed as being strongly grounded in science... "The meek shall inherit the earth."
Those, IOW, who already live lives not bound by the constraints of oil and machinery. Native tribes in S. America, Africa and even Australia. Maybe small towns in remote mountain areas around the world (hard to get to / only one road leading in or out of)...
...People who know how to farm a few crops, can drink non-chlorinated water without taking ill, who ride horses or walk most places.
Does the guy have an agenda besides just "educating people" on Peak Oil? Almost certainly, though I doubt it's political.
If you don't like him, just google for peak oil. You'll find a bunch of petrochemists, geologists, sociologists, economists, executives and historians who write about it ...
Strangely enough, I, of all people, am fairly optimistic about the human future:
you see, we are going to meet the 'helpers' from Alfa-Centaury and they will move us through "The Great Harvest Of Souls"
no, but seriously folks . . . I think that something will happen . . we will adapt . . . though we need to have leadership that recognizes reality as opposed to waiting for Angelic Hosts while the world burns . . .
We not only can synthesize many of these compounds from organic waste, as Billybobsky said, but there are even plants (or was it bacteria?) that can grow oil!!
anyway . . . I am not religious, but I do have faith . . . and we are going to adapt . .
BUT
in order to adapt successfully, I think that the suggestions made by this fellow and others, will be of aid . . . and perhaps we can lessen the transition trauma: trauma which will take the form of warfare, strife, famine, and huge loss of life . .. and worse of all: Apple will have to make wooden computers
I didn't mean to imply I think the guy who wrote that Peak Oil piece IS a kook. I'm just saying he made enough pertinent points that it really doesn't matter what he is. He has simply reminded us of what we have known all along, had we just taken the time to stop and think about it. The conclusions are pretty unavoidable, all you have to do is understand the laws of supply and demand, and the tenets of human behavior when put under certain stresses.
As for adapting, that's really not in question. Though the extinction of our race is possible, should the coming oil crises lead to nuclear war, it's more likely they will lead to something less (but not much less unappealing).
Sure we will adapt. Humans always adapt when given a chance and the conditions for basic survival. But adaptation for millions does not imply survival of billions. I suspect, that after hitting a plateau (before the poop hits the oscillating wood paddles), the world population will be at least cut in half by this, if not cut by two thirds or more.
More drastically it could literally become a "meek inherit the earth" type deal where no modern society survives intact (by that I mean the vast majority of its population decimated).
Plastics were only invented 55+ or so years ago . . . the disposable garbage bag, pharmeceuticals, umbrellas, iTunesMS yellow caps and computers etc will have to made with alternative substances . . . there will be plenty of compounds synthesized to step in. . .
for exmple: in Japan there is intense research on new forms of ceramics that would make your mind boggle . . .they even have made cars -that work and are supposedly tougher, more heat resistant and faster- completely out of new lightweight ceramics . . . I mean all of the car except the rubber and electrical and glass . . . I'm sure that ingenuity will step in
but what we need is a "Manhatten Project Phase 2: The Alternatives to Oil Years" . . . and this needs to be acknowledged by leaders unafraid that science might run counter to Big-Bearded-Guy-Retribution-Day.
I can almost guarantee you the equipment used to manufacture that ceramic car, depends (at some stage) on oil to make it happen. Either in the manufacturing of the equipment itself or in running it or both.
I'm not trying to say there is nothing anybody can do to lessen dependancy on oil in general, but even if say several million people all across America and Europe suddenly (as in tomorrow) started supplementing their house with solar or wind energy, and suddenly cut back on plastics, and drove half as much per year... it would barely make a *dent* in overall consumption. And what we would need is to mobilize well over a billion people to do these sorts of things, in order to actually "make a dent".
Ain't gonna happen, friend. We're a generally cooperative species, but we're not that cooperative.
The issue too, isn't that we're going to "run out" of oil so much as it will become so expensive to acquire and process oil (long *before* it runs out), that the price of just about everything (especially food and vehicle fuel and home heating) will go through the roof. That's where all the troubles will start. There will be no such thing as "disposable income" for the middle class anymore. Add a necessaily slackening economy to those spiking prices and people will start to get desparate... we know the rest.
The issue too, isn't that we're going to "run out" of oil so much as it will become so expensive to acquire and process oil (long *before* it runs out), that the price of just about everything (especially food and vehicle fuel and home heating) will go through the roof. That's where all the troubles will start. There will be no such thing as "disposable income" for the middle class anymore. Add a necessaily slackening economy to those spiking prices and people will start to get desparate... we know the rest.
I hate to sound like an insufferable capitalist . . . but I think that the reason above is exactly why the people who CAN change consumption on a global wide scale, by retooling manufacter etc, WILL do so . . . for example: the profit motive will make the oil companies decide to stop holding out on Hydrogen, and they will retool distribution and production because they will see the economic writing on the wall . . . they will provide alternative organic based substances becasue it will be in their interest to do so . . .
But once again, I think that we need imaginative leadership that can point this out to the stodgy old men on the boards . . .
also this investing idea is truly a good idea . . .
Becoming a chemical compound physicist (billybob) who knows where to see possibilities and also has the entrepenuerial gumption to make a difference is also a good idea . . . so what are you waiting for Moogs?!
That article is total bullshit! We are NOWHERE NEAR "running out of oil" on this planet. There are vast untapped and undiscovered reserves. ANWAR alone could satisfy the US demand for oil for 40 years. 2020 for peak production? I don't think so. We haven't begun to explore the potential of reserves in places like the Gulf of Mexico and such. Even the Middle East, while experiencing production limits (some artificial) has ABUNDANT oil for years to come.
Look at the "sources, graphs and charts" linked to on the website. They're absurd. It is amazing that people here and elswhere can actually believe a website called "dieoff.orf". Really...the hilarity is beyond all measure. The "World Resources Institute"? HAHAHAHAHA. Oh my god.
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phew i feel much better now really i do and if i don't pay the rent then nick won't throw me out he'll understand
Comments
Originally posted by burningwheel
stop driving your SUVs and pick-ups people
I feel excellent about myself, as I rode my bike to work today (as I usually do.) However, where is the rubber going to come from for my tires (trees?) and the grease for my chain when the oil goes away? Whales?
Thoth
- tax oils far more
- tax electricity to push industry and people to adopt energy-saving methods
- sponsor fusion, solar and wind power research sparing no expense
- sponsor research in energy-saving methods in construction, lighting, and heating
- shut down all gas and oil powerplants ASAP, replace them with nuclears as a short term solution
Car pollution is not a real problem. Modern catalysators have cut it down drastically. The real problem is that cars eat up the oil.
Everyone knows the oil reserves are about to or have already hit their peak production levels, and everyone knows it takes millennia for the earth to create "new reserves"...
Whether this guy is a kook or not, those who are 50 and under are basically fvcked. We are about to encounter some HARSH TIMES. Period. There may even come a time when "The Road Warrior" lifestyle is not that far from the truth (people eating out of dog food cans, little pocket communities of "hoarded oil" protected by an armed militia, etc.) Whether it comes as a result of nuclear war or starvation or something else is irrelevant.
What IS relevant, and what this guy said accurately, is that we have no existing alternative energy source that is:
a) ready to be distrubuted across industrialized nations on a massive scale and on short notice
b) able to easily provide a source of power for any kind of mechanized vehicle
c) able to be easily adapted to grow, package and distribute food
And ugly end of one sort or another is coming for many of us... whether you believe it for religious reasons or scientific ones or political ones... there is simply not enough oil left in the world to support a population of even 4 or 5 billion people, let alone "6 and growing".
The greatest thing about an oil-based civilization, is how easily it can support millions upon millions of people. The worst thing about an oil-based civilization... is how easily it can suport millions upon millions of people. I'm sure there was some visionary 100 years ago who recognized that the oil-based civilization would lead to a civlization so large, as to eventually implode or come crashing back in on itself to a more sustainable level.
Barring a meteor impact or nuclear war, I have little doubt there will be millions of humans populating this planet 100 years from now. But there won't be billions. That is assured.
Sweet dreams, friends. We are guilty of little more than being born too late and taking advantage of some amazing technologies that have made our lives as easy as can be imagined. We did what everyone has always wanted to do, and now the party is coming to and end....
How about investing in stock of the companies that do energy research and low-consumption products. I wonder which ones are most promising?
Those, IOW, who already live lives not bound by the constraints of oil and machinery. Native tribes in S. America, Africa and even Australia. Maybe small towns in remote mountain areas around the world (hard to get to / only one road leading in or out of)...
...People who know how to farm a few crops, can drink non-chlorinated water without taking ill, who ride horses or walk most places.
Something to think about.
Originally posted by Moogs
Does the guy have an agenda besides just "educating people" on Peak Oil? Almost certainly, though I doubt it's political.
If you don't like him, just google for peak oil. You'll find a bunch of petrochemists, geologists, sociologists, economists, executives and historians who write about it ...
you see, we are going to meet the 'helpers' from Alfa-Centaury and they will move us through "The Great Harvest Of Souls"
no, but seriously folks . . . I think that something will happen . . we will adapt . . . though we need to have leadership that recognizes reality as opposed to waiting for Angelic Hosts while the world burns . . .
We not only can synthesize many of these compounds from organic waste, as Billybobsky said, but there are even plants (or was it bacteria?) that can grow oil!!
anyway . . . I am not religious, but I do have faith . . . and we are going to adapt . .
BUT
in order to adapt successfully, I think that the suggestions made by this fellow and others, will be of aid . . . and perhaps we can lessen the transition trauma: trauma which will take the form of warfare, strife, famine, and huge loss of life . .. and worse of all: Apple will have to make wooden computers
The article is so bleak though, it's like, it doesn't even make me want to do anything, like, there is nothing I can do in time so why even bother
As for adapting, that's really not in question. Though the extinction of our race is possible, should the coming oil crises lead to nuclear war, it's more likely they will lead to something less (but not much less unappealing).
Sure we will adapt. Humans always adapt when given a chance and the conditions for basic survival. But adaptation for millions does not imply survival of billions. I suspect, that after hitting a plateau (before the poop hits the oscillating wood paddles), the world population will be at least cut in half by this, if not cut by two thirds or more.
More drastically it could literally become a "meek inherit the earth" type deal where no modern society survives intact (by that I mean the vast majority of its population decimated).
for exmple: in Japan there is intense research on new forms of ceramics that would make your mind boggle . . .they even have made cars -that work and are supposedly tougher, more heat resistant and faster- completely out of new lightweight ceramics . . . I mean all of the car except the rubber and electrical and glass . . . I'm sure that ingenuity will step in
but what we need is a "Manhatten Project Phase 2: The Alternatives to Oil Years" . . . and this needs to be acknowledged by leaders unafraid that science might run counter to Big-Bearded-Guy-Retribution-Day.
I'm not trying to say there is nothing anybody can do to lessen dependancy on oil in general, but even if say several million people all across America and Europe suddenly (as in tomorrow) started supplementing their house with solar or wind energy, and suddenly cut back on plastics, and drove half as much per year... it would barely make a *dent* in overall consumption. And what we would need is to mobilize well over a billion people to do these sorts of things, in order to actually "make a dent".
Ain't gonna happen, friend. We're a generally cooperative species, but we're not that cooperative.
The issue too, isn't that we're going to "run out" of oil so much as it will become so expensive to acquire and process oil (long *before* it runs out), that the price of just about everything (especially food and vehicle fuel and home heating) will go through the roof. That's where all the troubles will start. There will be no such thing as "disposable income" for the middle class anymore. Add a necessaily slackening economy to those spiking prices and people will start to get desparate... we know the rest.
Originally posted by Moogs
The issue too, isn't that we're going to "run out" of oil so much as it will become so expensive to acquire and process oil (long *before* it runs out), that the price of just about everything (especially food and vehicle fuel and home heating) will go through the roof. That's where all the troubles will start. There will be no such thing as "disposable income" for the middle class anymore. Add a necessaily slackening economy to those spiking prices and people will start to get desparate... we know the rest.
I hate to sound like an insufferable capitalist . . . but I think that the reason above is exactly why the people who CAN change consumption on a global wide scale, by retooling manufacter etc, WILL do so . . . for example: the profit motive will make the oil companies decide to stop holding out on Hydrogen, and they will retool distribution and production because they will see the economic writing on the wall . . . they will provide alternative organic based substances becasue it will be in their interest to do so . . .
But once again, I think that we need imaginative leadership that can point this out to the stodgy old men on the boards . . .
also this investing idea is truly a good idea . . .
Becoming a chemical compound physicist (billybob) who knows where to see possibilities and also has the entrepenuerial gumption to make a difference is also a good idea . . . so what are you waiting for Moogs?!
That article is total bullshit! We are NOWHERE NEAR "running out of oil" on this planet. There are vast untapped and undiscovered reserves. ANWAR alone could satisfy the US demand for oil for 40 years. 2020 for peak production? I don't think so. We haven't begun to explore the potential of reserves in places like the Gulf of Mexico and such. Even the Middle East, while experiencing production limits (some artificial) has ABUNDANT oil for years to come.
Look at the "sources, graphs and charts" linked to on the website. They're absurd. It is amazing that people here and elswhere can actually believe a website called "dieoff.orf". Really...the hilarity is beyond all measure. The "World Resources Institute"? HAHAHAHAHA. Oh my god.
originally posted by SDW2020
You people. Etc.
everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok everything's going to be ok
phew i feel much better now really i do and if i don't pay the rent then nick won't throw me out he'll understand