That article is total bullshit! We are NOWHERE NEAR "running out of oil" on this planet. There are vast untapped and undiscovered reserves. ANWAR alone could satisfy the US demand for oil for 40 years. 2020 for peak production? I don't think so. We haven't begun to explore the potential of reserves in places like the Gulf of Mexico and such. Even the Middle East, while experiencing production limits (some artificial) has ABUNDANT oil for years to come.
Look at the "sources, graphs and charts" linked to on the website. They're absurd. It is amazing that people here and elswhere can actually believe a website called "dieoff.orf". Really...the hilarity is beyond all measure. The "World Resources Institute"? HAHAHAHAHA. Oh my god.
i sure hope so. in fact, we should ignore the "problem"
Even so SDW, the article isn't total bullshit regardless, this *is* a problem, and even if it doesn't start affecting our daily lives for another 20 years(oh wait, how much is gas these days? ) it *will* affect our lives and the lives of our children. To just cast it off like you have done as a nonissue, that's foolish. Again, I think that the article is deliberately being overtly pessimistic to drive the point home. I wouldn't be surprised if we have far more oil than the article leads us to believe, but, think of it this way, to implement workable alternative fuel systems would take a good portion of that oil, as well as a good portion of time, so even if time isn't running as close to the mark as that article would have us believe, the point still stands that now is as good a time(if not our last time) to get things right.
Even so SDW, the article isn't total bullshit regardless, this *is* a problem, and even if it doesn't start affecting our daily lives for another 20 years(oh wait, how much is gas these days? ) it *will* affect our lives and the lives of our children. To just cast it off like you have done as a nonissue, that's foolish. Again, I think that the article is deliberately being overtly pessimistic to drive the point home. I wouldn't be surprised if we have far more oil than the article leads us to believe, but, think of it this way, to implement workable alternative fuel systems would take a good portion of that oil, as well as a good portion of time, so even if time isn't running as close to the mark as that article would have us believe, the point still stands that now is as good a time(if not our last time) to get things right.
I'm dismissing the report....not the problem. Oil is finite and I know that. We need to develop a plan to "get off" oil. But, such a plan will not be executed/completed for perhaps 50 years. We're totally addicted to oil...no matter who the President happens to be at the moment. What we need to do is secure our "short term" oil future until we can remove ourselves from it by developing alternative fuels.
As for you, Hassan, you need to explain to me why I should be alarmed. I'm not about to become so after reading that absurd websites that are the basis for this thread. I am of course concerned about "the oil problem", but I'm not alarmed or "scared" because I know we are not even close to running out of oil. If you disagree, then I suggest you link to some real, unbiased sources showing that to be the case. Further, while you accuse me of covering my ears and saying "la, la la" with regards to this issue, the real irony is found in the fact that you are the one who accepts things like this at face value. Being the extreme leftist you are, you'll believe any "report" that seems to confirm your beliefs that we are one step away from total environmental/economic disaster at any given moment. And of course, the Evil Bush Administration (TM) is responsible.
I never said the evil bush administration was responsible, the article never said it, I don't think any one in this thread said it. Please don't try and make this thread something it isn't, politics are a moot point to this, the point is, we are dependent on oil and it's running out.
SDW, again, even if we have a good 50 years before we have to start worrying, why procrastinate? the article stresses how alternative energy sources are too little, too late based on a model where the peak oil was reached in 2000.
Is it really too much to ask from your life that you think about cutting back your energy consumption, or do your part to reuse what you can, and not create excessive waste? are you that lazy?
I don't mean to start any fires here, but it seems to me, that laziness is what will do us in, be it laziness to actually do anything to help, or laziness to act.
This isn't a stupid political squabble, this is far bigger than that.
Also, I would like to read any reports you can give me of how much oil we have.
And, do you plan on having kids? even if you aren't worried, aren't you worried for your kids' sake?
SDW: no one says "we're running out of oil"; running out isn't the immediate issue. A declining supply (and the costs of finding, drilling and transporting oil from new locations) will drive the price up very quickly, once the existing reserves don't produce the amounts we are accustomed to.
Are we to believe it's a good idea to just "keep looking for the next ANWR" every time the supply starts to dip? Yes, it's going to dip soon. That's not an imagined fact, just look at what this Exxon guy and others are saying. Chenney for Christ's sake. BTW, we *have* explored a lot of the Gulf of Mexico, as evidenced by the oil platforms all over the place. Either way do we really want to turn the rest of the Gulf into a giant oil field that will only last another "another 40 years"?
Be a little forward-thinking here and realize some bad shit is going to go down in a hurry if we don't miraculously curb our appetite for oil in the Western world. Again, you don't have to take this guy's word for it, just do a little digging and you'll find plenty of respectable scientists and politicians who are deeply concerned.
We don't have to "run out" in order for bad things to happen... far from it.
Wow. You guys are amazing. I have stated that we must look for alternative sources of energy. Until such sources become viable, we must continue oil exploration to sustain our economy. Further, weening ourselves from oil will take a very, very long time.
The point of contention I have is with the claim that by 2020 we will be at "peak" oil production. Our current oil fields will not even be nearing anything close to depletion by that point. I dispute that extracting oil will become enourmously difficult and expensive by that point, even IF we don't explore for more oil sources. I think there is far more oil out there than the oil cartel would like any of us to believe.
As far as being worried, I'm honestly not. I'm certainly not going to become so due to an article that includes a link to "dieoff.org". Show me some real sources on this topic and I might take another look.
yeah, I thought the dieoff.org one was a little much, fear mongering et al. \
Either way, I'm going to be doing my part, I've wanted to build an earth-ship for a while now.
Personally, I don't care to go out and find sources that you'll buy, because I don't know you, I don't know what you'll believe, but, as has been stated, a google search will yield more than ample results.
And for the sake of whatever: here's a handful of articles and resources about peak oil, I know you probably won't read them all(I don't blame you, I probably wouldn't either) but maybe you'll at least admit that there is a wealth of information about this, and while some you may not buy, you may very well related better to others.
but, would you care linking at least one source to your claim?(that peak oil won't be reached till 2020)
2020 really isn't that long though man, I do think that we really should start weening today, sooner than later. You don't need to be 'the sky is falling! the sky if falling!" to make a difference(in your life if nothing else)
The point of contention I have is with the claim that by 2020 we will be at "peak" oil production. Our current oil fields will not even be nearing anything close to depletion by that point.
OK. Stop taking it personally for a second (because I certainly don't intend my comments that way) and comprehend. You still aren't getting it. There is a difference between "reaching a point of depletion (i.e. gone)" for any given reserve, and "reaching the point beyond which, it becomes harder and harder to extract x barrels a day from said reserve". The latter is all it takes to drive prices way up, and all anyone is talking about.
Also, Peak Oil has possibly *already* been hit (by liberal estimates), and will be hit no later than 2010 or so by conservative estimates. 2020 is the time-frame when we start talking "great depression act II", not "a dip in production".
Quote:
I dispute that extracting oil will become enourmously difficult and expensive by that point, even IF we don't explore for more oil sources. I think there is far more oil out there than the oil cartel would like any of us to believe.
OK. Fine. Because? Have you information regarding the latest geological surveys or something similar that leads you to feel all right about this?
There is a difference between "reaching a point of depletion (i.e. gone)" for any given reserve, and "reaching the point beyond which, it becomes harder and harder to extract x barrels a day from said reserve". The latter is all it takes to drive prices way up, and all anyone is talking about.
also, and this was mentioned in the article probably, our demand for oil isn't constant...it is increasing, mostly as a result of a population that is growing because our oilley culture encourages it. of course, to maintain current oil prices, the marginal cost of increasing supply must remain constant. otherwise, the supply line (economically speaking) moves left and because oil demand is mostly inelastic, prices will increase disproportinately to consumption, and this will continue in parallel with the supply line shifting farther and farther left as a result of increasing drilling and mining expenses (higher marginal costs)...the eventual result will not necessarily be running out of oil, but rather the economics of oil will ravage the economy to the point where people and firms cannot afford the oil they need and oil companies cannot profitably extract more oil.
this was basically a restatement of what moogs said with a little more economics seasoning. point: peak oil isn't about running out of oil, it is about economics (and, arguably, the failure of the market)
How about shipping huge methane tankers in from Uranus? (C'mon, that's an obligatory joke whenever a planet is brought into a discussion)
My 2nd facetious remark to offer is to look on the brightside- there is indeed a vast source of new oil we haven't even accounted for, yet! It will come from all the humans and plant life that exist now after life is extinguished from the earth in some great holocaust. Oh wait...well, I guess it will at least benefit whatever intelligent life that develops and inherits the earth after we are gone.
SDW I think you need to do a bit of Googling before posting.
The most optimistic estimates of ANWAR oil equal not much more than a year of US consumption, not 40.
Here is a quote from Forbes magazine:
Quote:
We're talking high stakes. Washington's own assessment of the Arctic refuge's 1.5 million acre coastal plain put mean estimates of recoverable oil at 3 billion to 4 billion bbl. A study sponsored by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists puts it at 7 billion bbl. By way of context, the U.S. consumes about 6.7 billion bbl. of oil a year. Of that, 52% was imported last year, at a cost of $68 billion.
Suggesting that the Gulf of Mexico hasn't begun to be exploited is also absurd. It is one of the most thorougly explored and exploited areas on the planet by both the US and Mexico.
As for worldwide oil reserves a recent report by geologist at the University of Uppsala in Sweden suggests that they have been overestimated by around 20%
Another article I read recently suggested that Saudi Arabia, with the world largest oil reserves, would be running out much sooner than expected because of overly optimistic estimates of its reserves.
While I am a zoologist, my second love is geology so I read quite a bit on this subject. The consensus among most petroleum geologists is that most of the worlds major reserves have been found and we shouldn't expect big finds in the future to bail us out. Billions are spent yearly on finding more oil and there just isn't anywhere on earth that geologists haven't been over with a fine tooth comb. No report I have every read has even suggested that the US could find enough oil within its borders to meet present rates of consumption let alone future needs.
On this sort of subject you can argue the details until the cows come home, but in the end it will always come down to one thing: over population. This year China is expected to become the worlds second largest consumer of oil and already can not meet their own demands so we are now competing with them for the worlds oil supply. With 1.2 billion people and the fastest growing economy in the world they are going to be sucking the earth dry. Very few estimates of world oil consumption in the coming decades have taken into account this growth because it was rather unexpected.
Here is my take on ANWAR. While I think the oil can be removed without to much distribution to the environment if care is taken I think we should just leave it in the ground. Oil is not a perishable commodity...it is not use it or loose it. As long as the rest of the world is willing to sell us oil at a cheap price we should be using theirs and leaving ours in the ground for later when we will really need it and the technology for extracting it is more environmentally friendly.
I am more optimistic that the doom and gloom site linked here, but it is pretty obvious to me that no matter how much we wring our hands nothing will really change until the price of oil rises significantly. Many people suggest the US should raise taxes to spur people to conserve and find alternative energy sources. While this is a good idea you shouldn't expect miracles because much of the rest of the world already pays 3 or 4 times what we pay for gas and it hasn't led to the Europeans or the Japanese inventing some magic technological fix. The best they have come up with is a much greater use of nuclear energy which has led to more problems than it has solved. The Japanese are the biggest importer of energy in the world and after spending hundreds of billions on nuclear research and having many serious accidents they aren't really that much better off.
What will happen? Who knows. Enjoy it while it lasts
SDW I think you need to do a bit of Googling before posting.
i disagree. the last thing we need is a forum where people are discouraged from posting their thoughts. i think the last few posts have had a lot of very meaningful discussion
One problem we face is that we are not going to be to be able to ween ourselves off oil until we have an other plentiful energy supply, and we are probably not going to start really looking for alternative energy sources until the difficulty of producing oil starts to wreck our economy.
In a democracy like ours the government is encouraged to ignore any planing that goes beyond the next election cycle.
One thing that does not help is that the people who are cognizant of the oil problem have a tendency to lobby for reduced consumption instead of lobbying the government to work out the engineering problems of space based solar power collectors (or an other plausible alternative).
People don't seem to realize that reduced consumption is not a solution to the problem, it is like using a bucket to bail water on the Titanic, it will not make much of a difference in the end.
We really need to choose a practical alternative energy source now and start working our way to it with a "Manhattan Project" like zeal. If we wait until things start going down hill, we might not have the industrial strength left to do it.
I think that, while I don't want to draw politics into this too much, they will ultimately be our downfall. Unless it's nader(the only person who actually seems to care about the environment) our president(whoever that may be) is not going to establish any motivated plans to help with the weening process. More than likely we'll just continue snatching up what oil we can, until it becomes a greedy, tense group of nations sitting on top their mounds staring at eachother with contempt.
Comments
Originally posted by SDW2001
OK folks. Let me offer a different perspective.
That article is total bullshit! We are NOWHERE NEAR "running out of oil" on this planet. There are vast untapped and undiscovered reserves. ANWAR alone could satisfy the US demand for oil for 40 years. 2020 for peak production? I don't think so. We haven't begun to explore the potential of reserves in places like the Gulf of Mexico and such. Even the Middle East, while experiencing production limits (some artificial) has ABUNDANT oil for years to come.
Look at the "sources, graphs and charts" linked to on the website. They're absurd. It is amazing that people here and elswhere can actually believe a website called "dieoff.orf". Really...the hilarity is beyond all measure. The "World Resources Institute"? HAHAHAHAHA. Oh my god.
i sure hope so. in fact, we should ignore the "problem"
"The Stupidity is Amazing"
Enough said.
Originally posted by Wrong Robot
Even so SDW, the article isn't total bullshit regardless, this *is* a problem, and even if it doesn't start affecting our daily lives for another 20 years(oh wait, how much is gas these days?
I'm dismissing the report....not the problem. Oil is finite and I know that. We need to develop a plan to "get off" oil. But, such a plan will not be executed/completed for perhaps 50 years. We're totally addicted to oil...no matter who the President happens to be at the moment. What we need to do is secure our "short term" oil future until we can remove ourselves from it by developing alternative fuels.
As for you, Hassan, you need to explain to me why I should be alarmed. I'm not about to become so after reading that absurd websites that are the basis for this thread. I am of course concerned about "the oil problem", but I'm not alarmed or "scared" because I know we are not even close to running out of oil. If you disagree, then I suggest you link to some real, unbiased sources showing that to be the case. Further, while you accuse me of covering my ears and saying "la, la la" with regards to this issue, the real irony is found in the fact that you are the one who accepts things like this at face value. Being the extreme leftist you are, you'll believe any "report" that seems to confirm your beliefs that we are one step away from total environmental/economic disaster at any given moment. And of course, the Evil Bush Administration (TM) is responsible.
SDW, again, even if we have a good 50 years before we have to start worrying, why procrastinate? the article stresses how alternative energy sources are too little, too late based on a model where the peak oil was reached in 2000.
Is it really too much to ask from your life that you think about cutting back your energy consumption, or do your part to reuse what you can, and not create excessive waste? are you that lazy?
I don't mean to start any fires here, but it seems to me, that laziness is what will do us in, be it laziness to actually do anything to help, or laziness to act.
This isn't a stupid political squabble, this is far bigger than that.
Also, I would like to read any reports you can give me of how much oil we have.
And, do you plan on having kids? even if you aren't worried, aren't you worried for your kids' sake?
Are we to believe it's a good idea to just "keep looking for the next ANWR" every time the supply starts to dip? Yes, it's going to dip soon. That's not an imagined fact, just look at what this Exxon guy and others are saying. Chenney for Christ's sake. BTW, we *have* explored a lot of the Gulf of Mexico, as evidenced by the oil platforms all over the place. Either way do we really want to turn the rest of the Gulf into a giant oil field that will only last another "another 40 years"?
Be a little forward-thinking here and realize some bad shit is going to go down in a hurry if we don't miraculously curb our appetite for oil in the Western world. Again, you don't have to take this guy's word for it, just do a little digging and you'll find plenty of respectable scientists and politicians who are deeply concerned.
We don't have to "run out" in order for bad things to happen... far from it.
The point of contention I have is with the claim that by 2020 we will be at "peak" oil production. Our current oil fields will not even be nearing anything close to depletion by that point. I dispute that extracting oil will become enourmously difficult and expensive by that point, even IF we don't explore for more oil sources. I think there is far more oil out there than the oil cartel would like any of us to believe.
As far as being worried, I'm honestly not. I'm certainly not going to become so due to an article that includes a link to "dieoff.org". Show me some real sources on this topic and I might take another look.
Either way, I'm going to be doing my part, I've wanted to build an earth-ship for a while now.
Personally, I don't care to go out and find sources that you'll buy, because I don't know you, I don't know what you'll believe, but, as has been stated, a google search will yield more than ample results.
And for the sake of whatever: here's a handful of articles and resources about peak oil, I know you probably won't read them all(I don't blame you, I probably wouldn't either) but maybe you'll at least admit that there is a wealth of information about this, and while some you may not buy, you may very well related better to others.
Peak Oil a reality: http://www.countercurrents.org/peakoil.htm
?http://www.countercurrents.org/en-monbiot021203.htm <-Check this one out specifically, I feel it's the most sensible I've seen so far.
hubbert peak oil production: http://www.countercurrents.org/peakoil.htm
A 2003 projected graph(shows oil peak at around 2010..2020) www.peakoil.org
ASPO: http://www.peakoil.net/
but, would you care linking at least one source to your claim?(that peak oil won't be reached till 2020)
2020 really isn't that long though man, I do think that we really should start weening today, sooner than later. You don't need to be 'the sky is falling! the sky if falling!" to make a difference(in your life if nothing else)
Originally posted by SDW2001
]Wow. You guys are amazing. ...
The point of contention I have is with the claim that by 2020 we will be at "peak" oil production. Our current oil fields will not even be nearing anything close to depletion by that point.
OK. Stop taking it personally for a second (because I certainly don't intend my comments that way) and comprehend. You still aren't getting it. There is a difference between "reaching a point of depletion (i.e. gone)" for any given reserve, and "reaching the point beyond which, it becomes harder and harder to extract x barrels a day from said reserve". The latter is all it takes to drive prices way up, and all anyone is talking about.
Also, Peak Oil has possibly *already* been hit (by liberal estimates), and will be hit no later than 2010 or so by conservative estimates. 2020 is the time-frame when we start talking "great depression act II", not "a dip in production".
I dispute that extracting oil will become enourmously difficult and expensive by that point, even IF we don't explore for more oil sources. I think there is far more oil out there than the oil cartel would like any of us to believe.
OK. Fine. Because? Have you information regarding the latest geological surveys or something similar that leads you to feel all right about this?
Originally posted by Moogs
There is a difference between "reaching a point of depletion (i.e. gone)" for any given reserve, and "reaching the point beyond which, it becomes harder and harder to extract x barrels a day from said reserve". The latter is all it takes to drive prices way up, and all anyone is talking about.
also, and this was mentioned in the article probably, our demand for oil isn't constant...it is increasing, mostly as a result of a population that is growing because our oilley culture encourages it. of course, to maintain current oil prices, the marginal cost of increasing supply must remain constant. otherwise, the supply line (economically speaking) moves left and because oil demand is mostly inelastic, prices will increase disproportinately to consumption, and this will continue in parallel with the supply line shifting farther and farther left as a result of increasing drilling and mining expenses (higher marginal costs)...the eventual result will not necessarily be running out of oil, but rather the economics of oil will ravage the economy to the point where people and firms cannot afford the oil they need and oil companies cannot profitably extract more oil.
this was basically a restatement of what moogs said with a little more economics seasoning. point: peak oil isn't about running out of oil, it is about economics (and, arguably, the failure of the market)
My 2nd facetious remark to offer is to look on the brightside- there is indeed a vast source of new oil we haven't even accounted for, yet! It will come from all the humans and plant life that exist now after life is extinguished from the earth in some great holocaust. Oh wait...well, I guess it will at least benefit whatever intelligent life that develops and inherits the earth after we are gone.
Originally posted by Randycat99
Oh wait...well, I guess it will at least benefit whatever intelligent life that develops and inherits the earth after we are gone.
Won't it be ironic when they end up using our fossils for their fuel
Originally posted by Moogs
OK. Stop taking it personally for a second (because I certainly don't intend my comments that way) and comprehend. You still aren't getting it.
it doesn't seem wise to encourage someone to avoid taking it personally and then insult them (or at least belittle them).
but, i agree with the rest of your thoughts (i elaborated a few posts prior)
The most optimistic estimates of ANWAR oil equal not much more than a year of US consumption, not 40.
Here is a quote from Forbes magazine:
We're talking high stakes. Washington's own assessment of the Arctic refuge's 1.5 million acre coastal plain put mean estimates of recoverable oil at 3 billion to 4 billion bbl. A study sponsored by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists puts it at 7 billion bbl. By way of context, the U.S. consumes about 6.7 billion bbl. of oil a year. Of that, 52% was imported last year, at a cost of $68 billion.
Suggesting that the Gulf of Mexico hasn't begun to be exploited is also absurd. It is one of the most thorougly explored and exploited areas on the planet by both the US and Mexico.
As for worldwide oil reserves a recent report by geologist at the University of Uppsala in Sweden suggests that they have been overestimated by around 20%
http://www.newscientist.com/hottopic...?id=ns99994216
Another article I read recently suggested that Saudi Arabia, with the world largest oil reserves, would be running out much sooner than expected because of overly optimistic estimates of its reserves.
While I am a zoologist, my second love is geology so I read quite a bit on this subject. The consensus among most petroleum geologists is that most of the worlds major reserves have been found and we shouldn't expect big finds in the future to bail us out. Billions are spent yearly on finding more oil and there just isn't anywhere on earth that geologists haven't been over with a fine tooth comb. No report I have every read has even suggested that the US could find enough oil within its borders to meet present rates of consumption let alone future needs.
On this sort of subject you can argue the details until the cows come home, but in the end it will always come down to one thing: over population. This year China is expected to become the worlds second largest consumer of oil and already can not meet their own demands so we are now competing with them for the worlds oil supply. With 1.2 billion people and the fastest growing economy in the world they are going to be sucking the earth dry. Very few estimates of world oil consumption in the coming decades have taken into account this growth because it was rather unexpected.
Here is my take on ANWAR. While I think the oil can be removed without to much distribution to the environment if care is taken I think we should just leave it in the ground. Oil is not a perishable commodity...it is not use it or loose it. As long as the rest of the world is willing to sell us oil at a cheap price we should be using theirs and leaving ours in the ground for later when we will really need it and the technology for extracting it is more environmentally friendly.
I am more optimistic that the doom and gloom site linked here, but it is pretty obvious to me that no matter how much we wring our hands nothing will really change until the price of oil rises significantly. Many people suggest the US should raise taxes to spur people to conserve and find alternative energy sources. While this is a good idea you shouldn't expect miracles because much of the rest of the world already pays 3 or 4 times what we pay for gas and it hasn't led to the Europeans or the Japanese inventing some magic technological fix. The best they have come up with is a much greater use of nuclear energy which has led to more problems than it has solved. The Japanese are the biggest importer of energy in the world and after spending hundreds of billions on nuclear research and having many serious accidents they aren't really that much better off.
What will happen? Who knows. Enjoy it while it lasts
iginally posted by craiger77
SDW I think you need to do a bit of Googling before posting.
i disagree. the last thing we need is a forum where people are discouraged from posting their thoughts. i think the last few posts have had a lot of very meaningful discussion
In a democracy like ours the government is encouraged to ignore any planing that goes beyond the next election cycle.
One thing that does not help is that the people who are cognizant of the oil problem have a tendency to lobby for reduced consumption instead of lobbying the government to work out the engineering problems of space based solar power collectors (or an other plausible alternative).
People don't seem to realize that reduced consumption is not a solution to the problem, it is like using a bucket to bail water on the Titanic, it will not make much of a difference in the end.
We really need to choose a practical alternative energy source now and start working our way to it with a "Manhattan Project" like zeal. If we wait until things start going down hill, we might not have the industrial strength left to do it.