Unfortunately, Apple Computer as we currently know them is dying.
Let's face the facts:
Apple cannot produce hardware that is competitively priced.
Except for the CPU, Apple is using all industry standard components in their computers and has them made overseas. Even if Apple makes 30% profit on its low end G5 tower, that mean it cost them $1260 to make. How much does it cost Dell to make one of their Dimension desktops or Precision workstations?
Apple cannot afford to create other products lines.
Two desktops and two laptops are a joke. Both Dell and Gateway have 8 laptop lines to choose from. Gateway has 4 desktop lines (plus a gaming system). Dell has 5 consumer desktops lines and 3 professional workstations. Other computer vendors give their customers more choices. They don't force people to buy configurations they don't what.
Apple cannot sell a computer for $500.
If they could, they would. As simple as that.
Apple's retail stores are not attracting new people to Macs as fast as Apple is losing education, government, consumer, and business customers.
We all saw pictures on the internet people flooding Apple's retail stores. Maybe we should see images of the floods of people leaving Apple's stores empty handed. Granted, while the stores are doing well, they aren't doing all that well either.
Apple is focusing more and more resources on iPods and iTunes.
Jobs views this at a chance for his personal redemption and he is taking it. While Apple currently enjoys a large market share presence in both online music and MP3 players. I wonder how long this will not last. How many places can one buy music CDs? In five years, you will have the same number of choices for online music sales.
Apple computer can not compete with "House Brand" computers.
While it is true that the Dells, Gateways, HPs, etc can't compete with them either on a price level, the fact is that other guys have education, government, and business sales to fall back. Because, you typically don't see beige boxes in any of those three places. Apple doesn't have the same sales to fall back on.
Apple makes it extremely difficult to repair the simplest things on their computers.
For example, when a DVD-RW drive in a Dell PC goes bad, I can go to a local OfficeMax buy a new drive, replace the bad one and be ready to go in 10 minutes. When my SuperDrive in my QuickSilver tower goes, is it as easy as a repair?
Internet software piracy is way out of control.
While this isn't Apple's direct fault, 3rd party Apple developers are losing software sales because of this (Mac Halo anyone?). Is it too much to ask for Apple to produce their own file sharing application (for legitimate file sharing purposes using Rendezvous) while at the same time breaking all the other ones that are KNOWN to be used for piracy? Or building in some sort of Non-Invasive software registration scheme into Mac OS X that developers would rejoice to? Who would be pissed off? Developers? No. Paying Consumers? Only if the software registration is transparent. Software Pirates? Yes. But who really cares about them.
Thoughts?
Apple is not dying. That's crazy. Apple is in one of the best positions it has ever been in. iPod is a wild success, and so is iTunes. Their stores are always packed and accomplish the goal of raising brand awareness. The stock is doing extremely well, up more than 100% in the past year. Dying?
Your points:
1. Apple has the highest profit margin in the industry. Screw Dell's cost cutting, Apple makes more money on what they sell.
2. Choices: Ever try to decipher a Dell catalog? Why do we need 5 deasktop systems? Why? Apple offers clear choices with plenty of options. Want a consumer laptop? Bingo....iBook for you. Want a professional laptop? Powerbook is your choice. There is no differentiating between 8 product lines that confuse consumers into thinking that a Celeron is a decent processor compared to a Pentium or G5. Just look at this gem of a web page...it took me three minutes to figure out where to get to their product line:
Then look at the line up itself. The bottom end laptop has CD-RW, the one that sells for $50 more does not. Oh, OK. Show the average consumer that page and he will ask one question: WTF computer do I get?
3. Cost: So what if Apple cannot sell a computer for $500? (Actually, it's not that they can't, it's that they have decided not to). That kind of money buys a piece of shit with not much margin anyway.
4. The music business is up in the air. There will be lots of competition, but if Apple plays its cards right, it will be the biggest. It's light years ahead of anything else out there.
5. House Brands? What does that mean exactly, and why do you think Apple WANTS to compete with them? Does BMW compete with Hyundai?
6. Repairs: Apple uses standard components. What is the problem?
7. Software piracy: You're not even making sense now. Music swapping is way down, and there is no evidence to suggest that Apple's profits are being hurt by piracy more than anyone else.
I think you're really off base here. I'm no Apple apologist, but look at the facts. Apple is in very good condition as a company.
I don't think the market share number is all that important. I really don't. What it really means is that Apple's competitors are expanding their businesses faster than Apple is. It has nothing to do with how many people actually USE Macs. Apple has a huge installed base that keeps coming back. It's that base that has always kept the company going. Apple is niche company....they're never going to dominate the computer market. My thoughts are that Apple does not WANT to dominate the market.
Those fretting about Apple's share really don't get it, because while Apple's slice of the pie is getting smaller, the overall pie is getting bigger.
Okay, I've got a lot of things to say from different parts of this thread, so I'll try to remember it all.
First of all, it seems like a lot of people I know are switching to Macs. A few years ago I noticed that many of the tech people I knew (through SeattleWireless) were switching to Macs (especially iBooks... cheap and durable). I have few friends that have switched or are thinking about switching. A few of us used to be fairly hardcore games that decided we no longer wanted the hassles of Windows. I can still play Warcraft III and the Myst series. I'm happy.
The iPod halo effect. I don't know about this, but I sure as hell hope it is helping. My girlfriend wants an iPod (and I'm pushing her toward a Mac for when she goes to college ). She told her aunt about the iPod and now the aunt wants one as well! On the other hand, compare this to one of my roommates who has an iPod. He was looking around the other night for laptops online. I recommended a PowerBook. "No, Macs suck." "Umm... you have an iPod." "I know, and I love it, but I hate Macs." WTF is that? I hope it is working, but some users are just stubborn. It doesn't help that there is another CSE major in here (like me) that praises Windows and dismisses Macs.
Speaking of CSE, I see a lot of Mac laptops around campus (especially in the CSE department) and even more iPods. I hope developers are switching. I personally am learning Objective-C and Cocoa to bring some handy free/Free apps to the platform.
Another reason Macs don't sell much: they last for freaking ever. I have a friend who is still using his original (toilet seat) iBooks. It is reaching the end of its usable life (mainly because of RAM), but it still works well for wireless and other tasks). He is going to get a new PowerBook when the next revision is released.
As for my family, we got our first Mac November 2002 (a 15" PB). I bought one myself in August of this year (12" PB). Now my mom is looking at getting an iMac for herself (to replace their 233 MHz Dell (back when Dells were good)) which will likely happen in January when my student discount is recharged.
As for school: my old high school has pretty much phased out Macs, except for the yearbook department. Of course, it is run by a couple of Windows admins (a few of which could probably eliminated if it was solely a Mac network). However, the elementary school I attended has a nice, relatively new, eMac lab (with al kinds of cool AppleScripts for system maintenance). My college has mostly PCs in the labs, but that is assumed when we are a 15 minute drive from Redmond (4x that long if 520 is backed up ). However, a lot of teachers and TAs use Macs. The Macs that the labs do have are all G5 towers (that I have seen) with, I believe, older Apple LCD displays.
I hope a lot of biotechs, content providers, and others buy Xserves and Xserve RAIDs. We need a multi-pronged attack to best regain mind-share and market-share.
Oh, I just realized something else. We need the media on our side. How many articles were written praising the coming of the tablet PC? Sure, we get articles about the iPod, but we need more articles (and more prominent articles) talking about the goodness of OS X and all the cool innovations of Apple.
Andrew
PS: I went to a talk by Jim Allchin at my school one day. It was aimed toward business leaders, but it was open to CS majors as well (and anyone else who heard about it that sneaks in ). I thought it was funny that on one of the slides (which contained lots of pictures showing the spectrum of computing) contained a small picture of a rack of Xserve RAIDs (straight off Apple's site). I bet he didn't make that presentation .
What's disheartening is that they were selling 40% more computers back then and had double digit marketshare...
C.
Look, in 1996 the price of a decent pc was ~$2000 the price of a decent mac was ~$2000(tower/flat desktop and display)
And now the price of a decent PC with display is ~$700-$1100 and the price of a mac tower and display are $1599 + $1299 = ~$3000 that means that while PC costs have fallen by ~50% Macs have gone up by ~50%, it is no wonder they are slipping.
IF apple can get its act together when it comes to hardware offerings and prices, they will spank windows when longhorn ships...the pre-releases get worse with each update
Apple is not dying. That's crazy. Apple is in one of the best positions it has ever been in. iPod is a wild success, and so is iTunes. Their stores are always packed and accomplish the goal of raising brand awareness. The stock is doing extremely well, up more than 100% in the past year. Dying?
Your points:
1. Apple has the highest profit margin in the industry. Screw Dell's cost cutting, Apple makes more money on what they sell.
2. Choices: Ever try to decipher a Dell catalog? Why do we need 5 deasktop systems? Why? Apple offers clear choices with plenty of options. Want a consumer laptop? Bingo....iBook for you. Want a professional laptop? Powerbook is your choice. There is no differentiating between 8 product lines that confuse consumers into thinking that a Celeron is a decent processor compared to a Pentium or G5. Just look at this gem of a web page...it took me three minutes to figure out where to get to their product line:
Then look at the line up itself. The bottom end laptop has CD-RW, the one that sells for $50 more does not. Oh, OK. Show the average consumer that page and he will ask one question: WTF computer do I get?
3. Cost: So what if Apple cannot sell a computer for $500? (Actually, it's not that they can't, it's that they have decided not to). That kind of money buys a piece of shit with not much margin anyway.
4. The music business is up in the air. There will be lots of competition, but if Apple plays its cards right, it will be the biggest. It's light years ahead of anything else out there.
5. House Brands? What does that mean exactly, and why do you think Apple WANTS to compete with them? Does BMW compete with Hyundai?
6. Repairs: Apple uses standard components. What is the problem?
7. Software piracy: You're not even making sense now. Music swapping is way down, and there is no evidence to suggest that Apple's profits are being hurt by piracy more than anyone else.
I think you're really off base here. I'm no Apple apologist, but look at the facts. Apple is in very good condition as a company.
Some counter points.
I said "Apple Computer as we currently know them is dying". Notice, I stated "as we currently know them". I realize with the tremendous success of the iPod/iTunes products that Apple itself isn't dying. I was only referring to Apple computers (i.e., PowerMacs, PowerBooks, iMac, eMac, and iBook). The computers side of Apple is something I care more about than the music side.
Question for you. How do Apple computer sales compare to computer sales 5 years ago? Sales of Apple computers still remain in a downward spiral. This is practically 2005 most consumers and businesses that buying computers aren't buying their first computer(s), they are replacing an existing ones. Apple's market share is constantly shrinking because more people are replacing existing Macs with cheaper PCs (especially in education).
Apple's stock price is because of the iPod and iTunes Music Store. Not because of Apple computers. Too bad we can't remove iPod/iTunes from the equation, and see what the stock price is.
You are correct in stating Dells and Gateways web stores are joke. I agree. But they do offer choice. Many more choices in what Apple offers. How long would a car manufacturer last if they only made a cheap sedan/SUV and a high-end sedan/SUV?
Most consumer don't buy Macs (or even look at them) is because of cost. It is the same reason why most consumer buy Ford's instead of BMW's. Because of cost. Nobody will disagree that the total package offered by Apple isn't considerably better than the package offered by Dell/Gateway or other. It is the same argument with Ford versus BMW isn't it? Of course a BMW is a better car than a Ford. But will I buy one. No. They cost too much.
I originally stated:
"How many places can one buy music CDs? In five years, you will have the same number of choices for online music sales."
Well now you have more new players to the mix such as: Walmart, MSN, and Sony. Other threats such as AOL, Yahoo, Google, and Amazon, etc. are lurking on the horizon. I hope Apple isn't betting the farm on this one.
House Brand computer = Computer you build yourself or have a local mom-n-pop computer store build one for you. A very big threat in my opinion. And yes, Apple does compete with them for consumer dollars.
On Apple repairs. I don't remember my original thoughts on this subject. I withdraw the statement.
This whole "apple is dying" question is utter BS! Period.
This is not utter BS (although I do agree though that my chosen word of "dying" was poor).
The simple truth is that Apple is selling less and less computers. This isn't an illusion nor a "numbers game". From year-to-year Apple is selling less and less computers. Are you okay with this then?
This is not utter BS (although I do agree though that my chosen word of "dying" was poor).
The simple truth is that Apple is selling less and less computers. This isn't an illusion nor a "numbers game". From year-to-year Apple is selling less and less computers. Are you okay with this then?
Relative: yes, Absolute: no. Year over year, Apple's units will be higher in 2004 than 2003. I actually expect 950k to 1 million in unit sales this quarter. A few analysts have suggested Apple's unit growth may grow faster than the industry next year. The whole "halo effect" thing needs to start showing up now. Whether it will is yet to be seen.
I forgot the exact percent but, in the last quater call thingy, apple announced that they had an increase of Mac sales of 3%. That not be much but, they are increasing not decreasing. The most of the 3% increase was due to poratble sales.
what people constantly fail to understand is that market share DOES NOT equal number of computers sold.
lets take an example:
say, there were total 10,000 units shipped worldwide in 2004.
lets also say that out of 10,000, 7,000 were IBM-compatible. that makes 3,000 Apple computers. (for the sake of the argument).
now, ideally, Apple share of the market is 30%.
well, lets just take yet another example.
say, there were 20,000 units shipped worldwide in 2004, and out of those 16,000 were IBM-compatible, while the rest is Apple computers.
Now the rest comes out to be 4,000 computers. 20,000 - 4,000 = 16,000.
now, 4,000 out of 20,000 is 20%.
what we learned: Apple actually sold 1,000 more computers but its market share fell from 30% to 20% due to increased IBM-compatible market share. Seeing as Apple always functions in high margins and charges premiums for its computers and hardware/software, we see that Apple actually made more money while having a smaller share of the market.
I don't know what this tells to those that dream of an 95% Apple owned market, but to realists with a clue on economics, this is a pretty good case of more profit with less volume, relative to the entire market.
The simple truth is that Apple is selling less and less computers. This isn't an illusion nor a "numbers game". From year-to-year Apple is selling less and less computers. Are you okay with this then?
Well I am not!
The simple truth IS that for the last few years SOMETIMES Apple sells less computers than the previous year .... and SOMETIMES they sell more.
(numbers in thousands)
2004 - 3290
2003 - 3012
2002 - 3101
2001 - 3087
2000 - 4558 (Apple's best year in unit sales)
Sorry Dave K, even though 2001-2004 reveals much lower sales than 2000 you cannot call it a "downward spiral".
Maybe someone else can explain the high sales in 2000 and the sharp drop in 2001. (?)
As a background to these figures there are a few things that to consider.
Apple has undergone a major OS transition. I believe there was a large number of Mac users who may have put off upgrading their machines while waiting for OS X to hit primetime and other software vendors (Quark etc) to play catch up. Remember OS X Panther was released just over a year ago!
The end of the 'slow G4' Powermac era. The G5 (or at least much faster G4s) was a long time coming! For a couple of years, many Powermac users were holding off upgrading (or even moving to the PC) while they patiently held out for a real speed increase. G5 Powermacs have been on sale for only 16 months. Plus short availability of the high end units at the end of 2004.
Finally, the G4 iMac never hit the sales heights of it's predecessor. Sure we now have eMacs and very affordable iBooks but the G4 iMac ended it's days being underpowered and overpriced. In it's last full financial quarter the G4 iMac only sold about 60,000. And for a couple of months in 2004... there was no iMac available for sale at all!
So where does that leave the "dying" Apple cpu market in 2005? Well, I believe that, if Apple doesn't make any major blunders, IBM can keep pace with CPU demand, the G5 IMac sales figures are close to what the press and pundits think they will be (ie. high!) .... and if only a tiny fraction of Windows using iPod owners consider and buy a Mac..........then Apple will be selling closer to 4 million than 3.
What will you call the sales trend then? An "upward spiral"?
Wasn't 2001 in the middle of that 18 month wait for speed-bumped Moto processors?
Sales have been flat for about 4 years now, little more here, little less there. So it's not surprising that marketshare is dwindling given that it's measuring sales relative to the rest of the (still growing) industry, especially when worldwide numbers are used (much more growth in Asia in particular). Sales are stable if low compared to 2000, but high compared to years like 1996 IIRC. (What did happen in 2000? My memory fails me.) So it's not that they're selling less, it's that they're volume sales aren't growing. This of course, doesn't directly correlate to the growth of profits or margins either.
The Macintosh is actually becoming too powerful to be a mass-market PC
Until the day I have instant computing I believe ?ALL? computers are slow. Calling a Mac fast enough is like trying to tell an alcoholic he had enough.
Comments
Originally posted by Dave K.
Unfortunately, Apple Computer as we currently know them is dying.
Let's face the facts:
Apple cannot produce hardware that is competitively priced.
Except for the CPU, Apple is using all industry standard components in their computers and has them made overseas. Even if Apple makes 30% profit on its low end G5 tower, that mean it cost them $1260 to make. How much does it cost Dell to make one of their Dimension desktops or Precision workstations?
Apple cannot afford to create other products lines.
Two desktops and two laptops are a joke. Both Dell and Gateway have 8 laptop lines to choose from. Gateway has 4 desktop lines (plus a gaming system). Dell has 5 consumer desktops lines and 3 professional workstations. Other computer vendors give their customers more choices. They don't force people to buy configurations they don't what.
Apple cannot sell a computer for $500.
If they could, they would. As simple as that.
Apple's retail stores are not attracting new people to Macs as fast as Apple is losing education, government, consumer, and business customers.
We all saw pictures on the internet people flooding Apple's retail stores. Maybe we should see images of the floods of people leaving Apple's stores empty handed. Granted, while the stores are doing well, they aren't doing all that well either.
Apple is focusing more and more resources on iPods and iTunes.
Jobs views this at a chance for his personal redemption and he is taking it. While Apple currently enjoys a large market share presence in both online music and MP3 players. I wonder how long this will not last. How many places can one buy music CDs? In five years, you will have the same number of choices for online music sales.
Apple computer can not compete with "House Brand" computers.
While it is true that the Dells, Gateways, HPs, etc can't compete with them either on a price level, the fact is that other guys have education, government, and business sales to fall back. Because, you typically don't see beige boxes in any of those three places. Apple doesn't have the same sales to fall back on.
Apple makes it extremely difficult to repair the simplest things on their computers.
For example, when a DVD-RW drive in a Dell PC goes bad, I can go to a local OfficeMax buy a new drive, replace the bad one and be ready to go in 10 minutes. When my SuperDrive in my QuickSilver tower goes, is it as easy as a repair?
Internet software piracy is way out of control.
While this isn't Apple's direct fault, 3rd party Apple developers are losing software sales because of this (Mac Halo anyone?). Is it too much to ask for Apple to produce their own file sharing application (for legitimate file sharing purposes using Rendezvous) while at the same time breaking all the other ones that are KNOWN to be used for piracy? Or building in some sort of Non-Invasive software registration scheme into Mac OS X that developers would rejoice to? Who would be pissed off? Developers? No. Paying Consumers? Only if the software registration is transparent. Software Pirates? Yes. But who really cares about them.
Thoughts?
Apple is not dying. That's crazy. Apple is in one of the best positions it has ever been in. iPod is a wild success, and so is iTunes. Their stores are always packed and accomplish the goal of raising brand awareness. The stock is doing extremely well, up more than 100% in the past year. Dying?
Your points:
1. Apple has the highest profit margin in the industry. Screw Dell's cost cutting, Apple makes more money on what they sell.
2. Choices: Ever try to decipher a Dell catalog? Why do we need 5 deasktop systems? Why? Apple offers clear choices with plenty of options. Want a consumer laptop? Bingo....iBook for you. Want a professional laptop? Powerbook is your choice. There is no differentiating between 8 product lines that confuse consumers into thinking that a Celeron is a decent processor compared to a Pentium or G5. Just look at this gem of a web page...it took me three minutes to figure out where to get to their product line:
http://www1.us.dell.com/content/prod...=19&l=en&s=dhs
Then look at the line up itself. The bottom end laptop has CD-RW, the one that sells for $50 more does not. Oh, OK. Show the average consumer that page and he will ask one question: WTF computer do I get?
http://www1.us.dell.com/content/prod...=19&l=en&s=dhs
3. Cost: So what if Apple cannot sell a computer for $500? (Actually, it's not that they can't, it's that they have decided not to). That kind of money buys a piece of shit with not much margin anyway.
4. The music business is up in the air. There will be lots of competition, but if Apple plays its cards right, it will be the biggest. It's light years ahead of anything else out there.
5. House Brands? What does that mean exactly, and why do you think Apple WANTS to compete with them? Does BMW compete with Hyundai?
6. Repairs: Apple uses standard components. What is the problem?
7. Software piracy: You're not even making sense now. Music swapping is way down, and there is no evidence to suggest that Apple's profits are being hurt by piracy more than anyone else.
I think you're really off base here. I'm no Apple apologist, but look at the facts. Apple is in very good condition as a company.
I don't think the market share number is all that important. I really don't. What it really means is that Apple's competitors are expanding their businesses faster than Apple is. It has nothing to do with how many people actually USE Macs. Apple has a huge installed base that keeps coming back. It's that base that has always kept the company going. Apple is niche company....they're never going to dominate the computer market. My thoughts are that Apple does not WANT to dominate the market.
Those fretting about Apple's share really don't get it, because while Apple's slice of the pie is getting smaller, the overall pie is getting bigger.
First of all, it seems like a lot of people I know are switching to Macs. A few years ago I noticed that many of the tech people I knew (through SeattleWireless) were switching to Macs (especially iBooks... cheap and durable). I have few friends that have switched or are thinking about switching. A few of us used to be fairly hardcore games that decided we no longer wanted the hassles of Windows. I can still play Warcraft III and the Myst series. I'm happy.
The iPod halo effect. I don't know about this, but I sure as hell hope it is helping. My girlfriend wants an iPod (and I'm pushing her toward a Mac for when she goes to college
Speaking of CSE, I see a lot of Mac laptops around campus (especially in the CSE department) and even more iPods. I hope developers are switching. I personally am learning Objective-C and Cocoa to bring some handy free/Free apps to the platform.
Another reason Macs don't sell much: they last for freaking ever. I have a friend who is still using his original (toilet seat) iBooks. It is reaching the end of its usable life (mainly because of RAM), but it still works well for wireless and other tasks). He is going to get a new PowerBook when the next revision is released.
As for my family, we got our first Mac November 2002 (a 15" PB). I bought one myself in August of this year (12" PB). Now my mom is looking at getting an iMac for herself (to replace their 233 MHz Dell (back when Dells were good)) which will likely happen in January when my student discount is recharged.
As for school: my old high school has pretty much phased out Macs, except for the yearbook department. Of course, it is run by a couple of Windows admins (a few of which could probably eliminated if it was solely a Mac network). However, the elementary school I attended has a nice, relatively new, eMac lab (with al kinds of cool AppleScripts for system maintenance). My college has mostly PCs in the labs, but that is assumed when we are a 15 minute drive from Redmond (4x that long if 520 is backed up
I hope a lot of biotechs, content providers, and others buy Xserves and Xserve RAIDs. We need a multi-pronged attack to best regain mind-share and market-share.
Oh, I just realized something else. We need the media on our side. How many articles were written praising the coming of the tablet PC? Sure, we get articles about the iPod, but we need more articles (and more prominent articles) talking about the goodness of OS X and all the cool innovations of Apple.
Andrew
PS: I went to a talk by Jim Allchin at my school one day. It was aimed toward business leaders, but it was open to CS majors as well (and anyone else who heard about it that sneaks in
Originally posted by MCQ
Why is an 8 month old thread being dug up?
Hehe, oops, I probably should have checked that before making my huge reply. Oh well.
Originally posted by Concord
What's disheartening is that they were selling 40% more computers back then and had double digit marketshare...
C.
Look, in 1996 the price of a decent pc was ~$2000 the price of a decent mac was ~$2000(tower/flat desktop and display)
And now the price of a decent PC with display is ~$700-$1100 and the price of a mac tower and display are $1599 + $1299 = ~$3000 that means that while PC costs have fallen by ~50% Macs have gone up by ~50%, it is no wonder they are slipping.
IF apple can get its act together when it comes to hardware offerings and prices, they will spank windows when longhorn ships...the pre-releases get worse with each update
Originally posted by SDW2001
Apple is not dying. That's crazy. Apple is in one of the best positions it has ever been in. iPod is a wild success, and so is iTunes. Their stores are always packed and accomplish the goal of raising brand awareness. The stock is doing extremely well, up more than 100% in the past year. Dying?
Your points:
1. Apple has the highest profit margin in the industry. Screw Dell's cost cutting, Apple makes more money on what they sell.
2. Choices: Ever try to decipher a Dell catalog? Why do we need 5 deasktop systems? Why? Apple offers clear choices with plenty of options. Want a consumer laptop? Bingo....iBook for you. Want a professional laptop? Powerbook is your choice. There is no differentiating between 8 product lines that confuse consumers into thinking that a Celeron is a decent processor compared to a Pentium or G5. Just look at this gem of a web page...it took me three minutes to figure out where to get to their product line:
http://www1.us.dell.com/content/prod...=19&l=en&s=dhs
Then look at the line up itself. The bottom end laptop has CD-RW, the one that sells for $50 more does not. Oh, OK. Show the average consumer that page and he will ask one question: WTF computer do I get?
http://www1.us.dell.com/content/prod...=19&l=en&s=dhs
3. Cost: So what if Apple cannot sell a computer for $500? (Actually, it's not that they can't, it's that they have decided not to). That kind of money buys a piece of shit with not much margin anyway.
4. The music business is up in the air. There will be lots of competition, but if Apple plays its cards right, it will be the biggest. It's light years ahead of anything else out there.
5. House Brands? What does that mean exactly, and why do you think Apple WANTS to compete with them? Does BMW compete with Hyundai?
6. Repairs: Apple uses standard components. What is the problem?
7. Software piracy: You're not even making sense now. Music swapping is way down, and there is no evidence to suggest that Apple's profits are being hurt by piracy more than anyone else.
I think you're really off base here. I'm no Apple apologist, but look at the facts. Apple is in very good condition as a company.
Some counter points.
I said "Apple Computer as we currently know them is dying". Notice, I stated "as we currently know them". I realize with the tremendous success of the iPod/iTunes products that Apple itself isn't dying. I was only referring to Apple computers (i.e., PowerMacs, PowerBooks, iMac, eMac, and iBook). The computers side of Apple is something I care more about than the music side.
Question for you. How do Apple computer sales compare to computer sales 5 years ago? Sales of Apple computers still remain in a downward spiral. This is practically 2005 most consumers and businesses that buying computers aren't buying their first computer(s), they are replacing an existing ones. Apple's market share is constantly shrinking because more people are replacing existing Macs with cheaper PCs (especially in education).
Apple's stock price is because of the iPod and iTunes Music Store. Not because of Apple computers. Too bad we can't remove iPod/iTunes from the equation, and see what the stock price is.
You are correct in stating Dells and Gateways web stores are joke. I agree. But they do offer choice. Many more choices in what Apple offers. How long would a car manufacturer last if they only made a cheap sedan/SUV and a high-end sedan/SUV?
Most consumer don't buy Macs (or even look at them) is because of cost. It is the same reason why most consumer buy Ford's instead of BMW's. Because of cost. Nobody will disagree that the total package offered by Apple isn't considerably better than the package offered by Dell/Gateway or other. It is the same argument with Ford versus BMW isn't it? Of course a BMW is a better car than a Ford. But will I buy one. No. They cost too much.
I originally stated:
"How many places can one buy music CDs? In five years, you will have the same number of choices for online music sales."
Well now you have more new players to the mix such as: Walmart, MSN, and Sony. Other threats such as AOL, Yahoo, Google, and Amazon, etc. are lurking on the horizon. I hope Apple isn't betting the farm on this one.
House Brand computer = Computer you build yourself or have a local mom-n-pop computer store build one for you. A very big threat in my opinion. And yes, Apple does compete with them for consumer dollars.
On Apple repairs. I don't remember my original thoughts on this subject. I withdraw the statement.
Thanks
Dave
Originally posted by adpowers
Hehe, oops, I probably should have checked that before making my huge reply. Oh well.
Don't worry
Originally posted by Vox Barbara
This whole "apple is dying" question is utter BS! Period.
This is not utter BS (although I do agree though that my chosen word of "dying" was poor).
The simple truth is that Apple is selling less and less computers. This isn't an illusion nor a "numbers game". From year-to-year Apple is selling less and less computers. Are you okay with this then?
Originally posted by Dave K.
This is not utter BS (although I do agree though that my chosen word of "dying" was poor).
The simple truth is that Apple is selling less and less computers. This isn't an illusion nor a "numbers game". From year-to-year Apple is selling less and less computers. Are you okay with this then?
Relative: yes, Absolute: no. Year over year, Apple's units will be higher in 2004 than 2003. I actually expect 950k to 1 million in unit sales this quarter. A few analysts have suggested Apple's unit growth may grow faster than the industry next year. The whole "halo effect" thing needs to start showing up now. Whether it will is yet to be seen.
lets take an example:
say, there were total 10,000 units shipped worldwide in 2004.
lets also say that out of 10,000, 7,000 were IBM-compatible. that makes 3,000 Apple computers. (for the sake of the argument).
now, ideally, Apple share of the market is 30%.
well, lets just take yet another example.
say, there were 20,000 units shipped worldwide in 2004, and out of those 16,000 were IBM-compatible, while the rest is Apple computers.
Now the rest comes out to be 4,000 computers. 20,000 - 4,000 = 16,000.
now, 4,000 out of 20,000 is 20%.
what we learned: Apple actually sold 1,000 more computers but its market share fell from 30% to 20% due to increased IBM-compatible market share. Seeing as Apple always functions in high margins and charges premiums for its computers and hardware/software, we see that Apple actually made more money while having a smaller share of the market.
I don't know what this tells to those that dream of an 95% Apple owned market, but to realists with a clue on economics, this is a pretty good case of more profit with less volume, relative to the entire market.
Originally posted by Dave K.
The simple truth is that Apple is selling less and less computers. This isn't an illusion nor a "numbers game". From year-to-year Apple is selling less and less computers. Are you okay with this then?
Well I am not!
The simple truth IS that for the last few years SOMETIMES Apple sells less computers than the previous year .... and SOMETIMES they sell more.
(numbers in thousands)
2004 - 3290
2003 - 3012
2002 - 3101
2001 - 3087
2000 - 4558 (Apple's best year in unit sales)
Sorry Dave K, even though 2001-2004 reveals much lower sales than 2000 you cannot call it a "downward spiral".
Maybe someone else can explain the high sales in 2000 and the sharp drop in 2001. (?)
As a background to these figures there are a few things that to consider.
Apple has undergone a major OS transition. I believe there was a large number of Mac users who may have put off upgrading their machines while waiting for OS X to hit primetime and other software vendors (Quark etc) to play catch up. Remember OS X Panther was released just over a year ago!
The end of the 'slow G4' Powermac era. The G5 (or at least much faster G4s) was a long time coming! For a couple of years, many Powermac users were holding off upgrading (or even moving to the PC) while they patiently held out for a real speed increase. G5 Powermacs have been on sale for only 16 months. Plus short availability of the high end units at the end of 2004.
Finally, the G4 iMac never hit the sales heights of it's predecessor. Sure we now have eMacs and very affordable iBooks but the G4 iMac ended it's days being underpowered and overpriced. In it's last full financial quarter the G4 iMac only sold about 60,000. And for a couple of months in 2004... there was no iMac available for sale at all!
So where does that leave the "dying" Apple cpu market in 2005? Well, I believe that, if Apple doesn't make any major blunders, IBM can keep pace with CPU demand, the G5 IMac sales figures are close to what the press and pundits think they will be (ie. high!) .... and if only a tiny fraction of Windows using iPod owners consider and buy a Mac..........then Apple will be selling closer to 4 million than 3.
What will you call the sales trend then? An "upward spiral"?
Originally posted by piot
(numbers in thousands)
2004 - 3290
2003 - 3012
2002 - 3101
2001 - 3087
2000 - 4558 (Apple's best year in unit sales)
Impressive.
Originally posted by Dave K.
Impressive.
Sorry. Don't understand. What is impressive?
Originally posted by piot
(numbers in thousands)
2004 - 3290
2003 - 3012
2002 - 3101
2001 - 3087
2000 - 4558 (Apple's best year in unit sales)
WOW, I had no idea that their volume was that low. Apple really is a boutique computer, like Bang and Olufsen.
Sales have been flat for about 4 years now, little more here, little less there. So it's not surprising that marketshare is dwindling given that it's measuring sales relative to the rest of the (still growing) industry, especially when worldwide numbers are used (much more growth in Asia in particular). Sales are stable if low compared to 2000, but high compared to years like 1996 IIRC. (What did happen in 2000? My memory fails me.) So it's not that they're selling less, it's that they're volume sales aren't growing. This of course, doesn't directly correlate to the growth of profits or margins either.
Originally posted by BuonRotto
(What did happen in 2000? My memory fails me.)
Uhhhh, oh the Cube was released.
Originally posted by Amorph
The Macintosh is actually becoming too powerful to be a mass-market PC
Until the day I have instant computing I believe ?ALL? computers are slow. Calling a Mac fast enough is like trying to tell an alcoholic he had enough.