3. Create a unique and popular identity for the DVR
Could this be done for less than 350 million? Including staffing and setting up destribution deals. Patents filing etc? I'm not so sure. We all know Apple can make their own but what is the cheapest option?
true, true, but the question here is what would Apl do to TiVO after the buy? They will probably redesign the OS tobe based on OSX and will do some new hardware designs to make it appear more like an APple Product for the future generations. This will cost at least another $150 million.
So, the real question is: Can Apple design a product better than TiVO for more like $500 million or less.
But johnsocal has raised an interesting point - purchasing Tivo does look like it would be a good thing for Microsoft. Remember they bought WebTV and basically shut it down. I don't think that was originally their complete intention, I think they pictured it as their entree into the living room. Now, they want to get those Tivos out of there (they are, after all, Linux boxes) and get Windows Media Centers in... or, if not the Media Center, at least an XBox, which is developing in the same direction.
Also, MS could use Tivo's IP to beat up on other DVR makers and get them out of the way. The current DOJ wouldn't even bat an eyelash as MS wiped out an entire product segment.
Also, MS could use Tivo's IP to beat up on other DVR makers
There was uneasyness when MS bought out some SGI IP. I don't think it actually happened but there were thoughts that MS might go on a patent infringement hunt. Depending on Tivo's patents this could happen.
But johnsocal has raised an interesting point - purchasing Tivo does look like it would be a good thing for Microsoft. Remember they bought WebTV and basically shut it down. I don't think that was originally their complete intention, I think they pictured it as their entree into the living room. Now, they want to get those Tivos out of there (they are, after all, Linux boxes) and get Windows Media Centers in... or, if not the Media Center, at least an XBox, which is developing in the same direction.
Also, MS could use Tivo's IP to beat up on other DVR makers and get them out of the way. The current DOJ wouldn't even bat an eyelash as MS wiped out an entire product segment.
Yes, MS buying Tivo makes a lot of sense.
Correct me if I am wrong, but MS never shut down WebTV, they redesigned it slightly and you know it now as MSN TV. MSN TV is sold in all Circuit City, Best Buy, Compusa and other places. They never killed it. However, MS isn't going to buy Tivo, they already tried this a few years ago, it was called Microsoft Ultimate TV, (still have some on ebay) and MS flopped. The market just wasn't ready for PVR's. However today is different. MS plays in the space with MSN TV, Media Center and Tablet PC's. They want to cover all their bases and wait for what gets big.
The interesting thing is the idea is to have something "digial hub-ish" in the living room. Enter xbox, their gateway to the living room. They can spend less than 5 million dollars adding PVR functionality to xbox than buy Tivo. I think xbox has as much recognition as tivo these days. MS already has the Media Center code, and with all the media center Media Extenders being by other companies these days, it already has market momentum.
What can apple do with the name that it can't come up with by itself?
That's the fallacy that people keep making. EVERY aquisition is made from a financial standpoint rather than marketing. The question is always "is it cheaper to buy Acme company and its assetts rather than expend the effort and money to create our own"
Plus none of us have one inkling about what Tivo's patent portfolio or unreleased tech looks like or even what extend their subscriber base generates revenue.
That's the fallacy that people keep making. EVERY aquisition is made from a financial standpoint rather than marketing. The question is always "is it cheaper to buy Acme company and its assetts rather than expend the effort and money to create our own"
Plus none of us have one inkling about what Tivo's patent portfolio or unreleased tech looks like or even what extend their subscriber base generates revenue.
That's the fallacy that people keep making. EVERY aquisition is made from a financial standpoint rather than marketing. The question is always "is it cheaper to buy Acme company and its assetts rather than expend the effort and money to create our own"
Plus none of us have one inkling about what Tivo's patent portfolio or unreleased tech looks like or even what extend their subscriber base generates revenue.
I think we can calculate this. I heard that 1/3 of the base is a lifetime member, which means that 2/3 is monthly.
Estimates on 3.5M Subscribers.
1/3 Lifetime Mem (1,155,000 x $300 = $346,500,000
2/3 Monthly Sub (($13x12mos/yr)x 2,345,000) =$365,820,000
No idea if they make anything off their IP or not. I imagine the hardware is subsidised, which is sad because it is behind the times for todays Hi-Definition standards.
I want to clarify some of the rumors for everyone since people have been going crazy with this stupid TiVo rumor.
Apple IF it decides to buy TiVo (and yes they are considering it) Is only buying tivo to shut it down
Tivo has no technologies worth buying or owning. Any company, especially a computer company can make something better than tivo with available kits, and parts from manufactures. A tivo buy is to shut down possible compeitition from tivo with a new apple product.
TIVO is NOT worth buying and is a "buy to kill item"
There are only two things of value that TiVo has and only one counts. The name, which has become synonymous with "DVR". They are way, way, way behind on hardware design and their software, though "easy to use" is essentially crippled because they are unable to survive any protracted litigation, or even the threat of protracted litigation.
In other words, Apple would not benefit from the purchase of TiVo.
In other words, Apple would not benefit from the purchase of TiVo.
This conclusion is not well supported by your preceding statements.
Again...I'll keep this simple.
How much would it cost Apple to.
1. Develop a DVR application and patent portfolio.
2. Create an infrastructure and obtain a 3 million subscribed users.
3. Staff such a venture with execs and employees.
Can Apple do this for less than 400 million dollars? I'm not sure they can. Mention Tivo to many americans and they know what you speak about. That's brand awareness. Tivo's aquisition of Strangeberry brought Arthur Van Hoff aboard. His accomplishments are numerous and if Apple could elicit his services then that's another win.
I think some of you are giving Apple far too much credit. Yes they make nice looking apps but how many version 1 Apple apps function like we expect them to? Apple is good but they're not THAT good. I think it usually takes them at least two revisions before their app starts to mature.
I'm not saying Apple is stupid to not buy Tivo but if they did it wouldn't be wasted money either if they just based the tivo software around iLife and beefed up the hardware.
I have chided Apple for some time about the lack of Televised Video in their "Digital Hub" strategy. I have characterized their digital hub as "missing a spoke" on numerous occasions, both here and in other forums.
I am both an AAPL investor, and a TiVo "lifetime" subscriber.
So after reading the above disclaimers it may come as no surprise that I'm all for Apple buying TiVo, or El Gato, or anybody that will propel them into Televised Video.
Now as to whether it makes any business sense to specifically buy TiVo: It depends on what patents TiVo owns, and how Apple can use them to fend off Microsoft's huge expansion of patented Intellectual property.
I would imagine that the Media Center has been a huge pool for Microsoft to pour related IP patents into. As I imagine this, I think of the La Brea tar pits. A pool of sticky goo that traps and kills all who venture near.
As an investor an announcement of the purchase of TiVo (or El Gato, for that matter) would be the "other shoe" to the iPod revolution, and I would expect the stock to be aided with such a clear statement of direction by Apple.
As a lifetime TiVo subscriber, it would mean that the brand lives on. Lifetime in this case being as long as the name survives. Heck, it might even mean that if Apple rolls the TiVo subscriptions into .mac that I'll get lifetime rights there!
If you have a Tivo this might be the first sign that you watch to much TV. I can't remember the last time I watched a TV show. Well maybe it has something to do with that TV in Europe really sucks, except maybe for those free techno porn shows that are on after 12:00.
If you have a Tivo this might be the first sign that you watch to much TV. I can't remember the last time I watched a TV show. Well maybe it has something to do with that TV in Europe really sucks, except maybe for those free techno porn shows that are on after 12:00.
Relic it would seem like that but the interesting thing is Tivo doesn't make you watch more television but rather the effect is Tivo lets you wade through the vast pool of programming crap and pull out what you "really" want. So in essence you stop channel surfing and get to watching shows you really want in less time because you simply fast forward through the commercials.
My mother will not give up her Tivo. It's become such a fundamental part of how she takes advantage of her cable programming.
My best friend doesn't watch football games live anymore. He does what he needs to do and then he comes home and watches the typical 3hr game in 2 hrs. It's very liberating to have your TV viewing happen according to "your" schedule and not the networks.
I totally agree with Aphelion. How can Apple spout off about Digital Lifestyles and Digital Hubs when they are MIA in the area that consumers spend the "most" time on daily. Watching TV.
There is about to be an explosion of new offerings in the next Decade. This market is about to get very lucrative. I call it the "Trifecta" it's the amalgamation of multimedia content from Cable COs, Personal Libraries and Broadband content.
Apple needs to tie these together with an outstanding UI that becomes the center of the living rooms entertainment network. We're seeing the building blocks already.
CableCARDS for Premium Scrambled channels acccess.
HDMI for one cable digital A/V links with approved DRM
Cell processor for outstanding Multimedia performance
Nexgen Codecs- AVC high quality and efficient codec
Apple has "something" planned. Why else would iTunes 5 be taking so long? Tivo may or may not be in the plan. But something equivalent needs to be in process.
Do you think Apple will leave the iSight camera the way it is and create another camera called iSight HD? I slightly more expensive camera with the ability to do HD.
Do you think Apple will leave the iSight camera the way it is and create another camera called iSight HD? I slightly more expensive camera with the ability to do HD.
I think that isight will become HD and that it will combine with the rest of the Tiger ecosystem.
As for PVR functions perhaps into .mac which will be (again in my opinion) made far more robust.
Remember Steves Predition about being one of the top 10 INTERNET companies within 10 years? Well it has been about 5 so far.
iSight will be HD in name only. In addition to recording at HD resolution you need a lens and CCD/CMOS that supports HD resolution. I don't see this happening.
I do see Apple moving into the DVR space but the time might not be right. Perhaps Q3 we see a product hit for the holidays.
I don't underestimate the needs of such a device. It needs to be powerful enough to handle a HDTV stream and play back iTunes files simultaneously to other computers in the household. This pretty much precludes the use of low cost subsidized hardware.
Apple will probably need virtually a HomePod. The music files should be loaded and played from RAM in the player. There should be perhaps two drives to mate with dual tuners so that throughput is maximized.
No one has yet created the perfect entertainment device. Can Apple do it? We'll see
Comments
Originally posted by hmurchison
How much do you think it would cost Apple to
1. Create the DVR software and Hardware.
2. Market this DVR and obtain 3 million users.
3. Create a unique and popular identity for the DVR
Could this be done for less than 350 million? Including staffing and setting up destribution deals. Patents filing etc? I'm not so sure. We all know Apple can make their own but what is the cheapest option?
true, true, but the question here is what would Apl do to TiVO after the buy? They will probably redesign the OS tobe based on OSX and will do some new hardware designs to make it appear more like an APple Product for the future generations. This will cost at least another $150 million.
So, the real question is: Can Apple design a product better than TiVO for more like $500 million or less.
and a temporary contract with DirectTV
apple can wait till the spike in tivo rumors subsides and buy the whole thing out at 3.00 per share or less.
Could happen. Prob. won't
Also, MS could use Tivo's IP to beat up on other DVR makers and get them out of the way. The current DOJ wouldn't even bat an eyelash as MS wiped out an entire product segment.
Yes, MS buying Tivo makes a lot of sense.
Also, MS could use Tivo's IP to beat up on other DVR makers
There was uneasyness when MS bought out some SGI IP. I don't think it actually happened but there were thoughts that MS might go on a patent infringement hunt. Depending on Tivo's patents this could happen.
Originally posted by cubist
But johnsocal has raised an interesting point - purchasing Tivo does look like it would be a good thing for Microsoft. Remember they bought WebTV and basically shut it down. I don't think that was originally their complete intention, I think they pictured it as their entree into the living room. Now, they want to get those Tivos out of there (they are, after all, Linux boxes) and get Windows Media Centers in... or, if not the Media Center, at least an XBox, which is developing in the same direction.
Also, MS could use Tivo's IP to beat up on other DVR makers and get them out of the way. The current DOJ wouldn't even bat an eyelash as MS wiped out an entire product segment.
Yes, MS buying Tivo makes a lot of sense.
Correct me if I am wrong, but MS never shut down WebTV, they redesigned it slightly and you know it now as MSN TV. MSN TV is sold in all Circuit City, Best Buy, Compusa and other places. They never killed it. However, MS isn't going to buy Tivo, they already tried this a few years ago, it was called Microsoft Ultimate TV, (still have some on ebay) and MS flopped. The market just wasn't ready for PVR's. However today is different. MS plays in the space with MSN TV, Media Center and Tablet PC's. They want to cover all their bases and wait for what gets big.
The interesting thing is the idea is to have something "digial hub-ish" in the living room. Enter xbox, their gateway to the living room. They can spend less than 5 million dollars adding PVR functionality to xbox than buy Tivo. I think xbox has as much recognition as tivo these days. MS already has the Media Center code, and with all the media center Media Extenders being by other companies these days, it already has market momentum.
or a noun.
usage in common parlance:
"Oh I'll just tivo that program tonight"
The brand name is weakened.
like Kleenex or aspirin or xerox or crap (the inventor of the flush toilet)
Premise: Apple buys Tivo
assumptions:
1. apple (and others) can do what tivo can vis a vie hardware and software
2. everything but the name Tivo is worthless
What can apple do with the name that it can't come up with by itself?
What can apple do with the name that it can't come up with by itself?
That's the fallacy that people keep making. EVERY aquisition is made from a financial standpoint rather than marketing. The question is always "is it cheaper to buy Acme company and its assetts rather than expend the effort and money to create our own"
Plus none of us have one inkling about what Tivo's patent portfolio or unreleased tech looks like or even what extend their subscriber base generates revenue.
Originally posted by hmurchison
That's the fallacy that people keep making. EVERY aquisition is made from a financial standpoint rather than marketing. The question is always "is it cheaper to buy Acme company and its assetts rather than expend the effort and money to create our own"
Plus none of us have one inkling about what Tivo's patent portfolio or unreleased tech looks like or even what extend their subscriber base generates revenue.
I point you to my assumptions
and my question remains
Originally posted by hmurchison
That's the fallacy that people keep making. EVERY aquisition is made from a financial standpoint rather than marketing. The question is always "is it cheaper to buy Acme company and its assetts rather than expend the effort and money to create our own"
Plus none of us have one inkling about what Tivo's patent portfolio or unreleased tech looks like or even what extend their subscriber base generates revenue.
I think we can calculate this. I heard that 1/3 of the base is a lifetime member, which means that 2/3 is monthly.
Estimates on 3.5M Subscribers.
1/3 Lifetime Mem (1,155,000 x $300 = $346,500,000
2/3 Monthly Sub (($13x12mos/yr)x 2,345,000) =$365,820,000
No idea if they make anything off their IP or not. I imagine the hardware is subsidised, which is sad because it is behind the times for todays Hi-Definition standards.
Originally posted by webmail
I want to clarify some of the rumors for everyone since people have been going crazy with this stupid TiVo rumor.
Apple IF it decides to buy TiVo (and yes they are considering it) Is only buying tivo to shut it down
Tivo has no technologies worth buying or owning. Any company, especially a computer company can make something better than tivo with available kits, and parts from manufactures. A tivo buy is to shut down possible compeitition from tivo with a new apple product.
TIVO is NOT worth buying and is a "buy to kill item"
There are only two things of value that TiVo has and only one counts. The name, which has become synonymous with "DVR". They are way, way, way behind on hardware design and their software, though "easy to use" is essentially crippled because they are unable to survive any protracted litigation, or even the threat of protracted litigation.
In other words, Apple would not benefit from the purchase of TiVo.
In other words, Apple would not benefit from the purchase of TiVo.
This conclusion is not well supported by your preceding statements.
Again...I'll keep this simple.
How much would it cost Apple to.
1. Develop a DVR application and patent portfolio.
2. Create an infrastructure and obtain a 3 million subscribed users.
3. Staff such a venture with execs and employees.
Can Apple do this for less than 400 million dollars? I'm not sure they can. Mention Tivo to many americans and they know what you speak about. That's brand awareness. Tivo's aquisition of Strangeberry brought Arthur Van Hoff aboard. His accomplishments are numerous and if Apple could elicit his services then that's another win.
I think some of you are giving Apple far too much credit. Yes they make nice looking apps but how many version 1 Apple apps function like we expect them to? Apple is good but they're not THAT good. I think it usually takes them at least two revisions before their app starts to mature.
I'm not saying Apple is stupid to not buy Tivo but if they did it wouldn't be wasted money either if they just based the tivo software around iLife and beefed up the hardware.
I have chided Apple for some time about the lack of Televised Video in their "Digital Hub" strategy. I have characterized their digital hub as "missing a spoke" on numerous occasions, both here and in other forums.
I am both an AAPL investor, and a TiVo "lifetime" subscriber.
So after reading the above disclaimers it may come as no surprise that I'm all for Apple buying TiVo, or El Gato, or anybody that will propel them into Televised Video.
Now as to whether it makes any business sense to specifically buy TiVo: It depends on what patents TiVo owns, and how Apple can use them to fend off Microsoft's huge expansion of patented Intellectual property.
I would imagine that the Media Center has been a huge pool for Microsoft to pour related IP patents into. As I imagine this, I think of the La Brea tar pits. A pool of sticky goo that traps and kills all who venture near.
As an investor an announcement of the purchase of TiVo (or El Gato, for that matter) would be the "other shoe" to the iPod revolution, and I would expect the stock to be aided with such a clear statement of direction by Apple.
As a lifetime TiVo subscriber, it would mean that the brand lives on. Lifetime in this case being as long as the name survives. Heck, it might even mean that if Apple rolls the TiVo subscriptions into .mac that I'll get lifetime rights there!
Originally posted by Relic
If you have a Tivo this might be the first sign that you watch to much TV. I can't remember the last time I watched a TV show. Well maybe it has something to do with that TV in Europe really sucks, except maybe for those free techno porn shows that are on after 12:00.
Relic it would seem like that but the interesting thing is Tivo doesn't make you watch more television but rather the effect is Tivo lets you wade through the vast pool of programming crap and pull out what you "really" want. So in essence you stop channel surfing and get to watching shows you really want in less time because you simply fast forward through the commercials.
My mother will not give up her Tivo. It's become such a fundamental part of how she takes advantage of her cable programming.
My best friend doesn't watch football games live anymore. He does what he needs to do and then he comes home and watches the typical 3hr game in 2 hrs. It's very liberating to have your TV viewing happen according to "your" schedule and not the networks.
I totally agree with Aphelion. How can Apple spout off about Digital Lifestyles and Digital Hubs when they are MIA in the area that consumers spend the "most" time on daily. Watching TV.
There is about to be an explosion of new offerings in the next Decade. This market is about to get very lucrative. I call it the "Trifecta" it's the amalgamation of multimedia content from Cable COs, Personal Libraries and Broadband content.
Apple needs to tie these together with an outstanding UI that becomes the center of the living rooms entertainment network. We're seeing the building blocks already.
CableCARDS for Premium Scrambled channels acccess.
HDMI for one cable digital A/V links with approved DRM
Cell processor for outstanding Multimedia performance
Nexgen Codecs- AVC high quality and efficient codec
Apple has "something" planned. Why else would iTunes 5 be taking so long? Tivo may or may not be in the plan. But something equivalent needs to be in process.
Isight camera is already being revamped..
soon my friends soon.
Tivo- not so much.
Originally posted by TednDi
I think itunes 5 will debut with Tiger and QT 7.
Isight camera is already being revamped..
soon my friends soon.
Tivo- not so much.
Do you think Apple will leave the iSight camera the way it is and create another camera called iSight HD? I slightly more expensive camera with the ability to do HD.
Originally posted by geobe
Do you think Apple will leave the iSight camera the way it is and create another camera called iSight HD? I slightly more expensive camera with the ability to do HD.
I think that isight will become HD and that it will combine with the rest of the Tiger ecosystem.
As for PVR functions perhaps into .mac which will be (again in my opinion) made far more robust.
Remember Steves Predition about being one of the top 10 INTERNET companies within 10 years? Well it has been about 5 so far.
Tiger/QT 7/.mac
All part of the equation.
Tivo is a red herring.
http://news.com.com/TiVo+records+new...7315&subj=news
I do see Apple moving into the DVR space but the time might not be right. Perhaps Q3 we see a product hit for the holidays.
I don't underestimate the needs of such a device. It needs to be powerful enough to handle a HDTV stream and play back iTunes files simultaneously to other computers in the household. This pretty much precludes the use of low cost subsidized hardware.
Apple will probably need virtually a HomePod. The music files should be loaded and played from RAM in the player. There should be perhaps two drives to mate with dual tuners so that throughput is maximized.
No one has yet created the perfect entertainment device. Can Apple do it? We'll see