It is yet to be seen who will absorb the extra initial costs of blue-ray. It could be the consumers, content providers, PC/Mac users (for data disks), manufactures. There is lots to spread the cost around evenly and the end user that just wants a movie will never see the cost difference, or if the cost difference is very minimal the consumer will not notice the difference. As for production costs, it depends on where they are manufactured. China is still the low cost provider, and production lines are an investment. If the manufactures think that production costs are out of line they will add or improve usually both. If a production line is producing .8 blue-ray to 1.0 HD-DVD and that is making a difference they will add capacity, in other words the manufacturer will protect their investment, and their market. What I usually see is that everyone involved in a new technology is all about money until they go to market and the fear of losing gets to them, that 1/2 penney is for a locked market, this is for a new market and yes their will be great arguments about pennies but at the end of the day they will want to win in the market place. It will be interesting to watch, but having Dell and HP in their is no small market to start with, look at DVD recorders, and their price drop. Interaction is a good point and that depends on content, I look for the porn industry to decide this one, and most porn is shot using the cannon XP-something and I imagine using computers to edit the movie and it appears that if they use a PC their burner will be blue-ray and if they use a Mac their burner will be blue-ray, not saying that they cannot burn the movie to a hard drive and send that to the HD-DVD disk copier.
I think Brendon's points are legit hmurchison. Although yours are as well, but after what Brendon said I don't see the consumer eating the cost on this. I'd say a lot of the revamping of facilities, or lines can be written off, and most of the difference in cost can easily be absorbed over time by shortening margins for a while to keep a hold in the new marketplace. This can also probably be written off as a tax break, which in the end turns out as equal in it's returns. The best investments are long term. To me Blue-Ray looks like a better format, technology buffs probably see it as inevitable. Apple seems to think it's a better format, and I have to agree with them on this.
My contention has always been that both formats are unfortunately inevitable. Blu-Ray is a technical marvel but consumers are loathe to pay more if cheaper optons exist. That cheaper option will be HD-DVD thus despite giving up 20GB of storage HD-DVD has the strength where it counts.
I'll have both formats and I see BR as being great for storage duties on computers. I don't necessarily agree with people trying to trivialize costs of production. Volume production lowers the cost of almost everything and seeing as how both formats have damn near a 50/50 split HD-DVD will have the volume production to lower costs as well.
I think Apple is jumping the gun just like Dell and HP and others have done. It'll be interesting to see how inexpensive the recordable media for both is. Remember Blu-Ray requires the TDK coating for durability but It's unclear on whether BD-R discs will have this. If not then your data is .1mm away from being damaged.
I just feel like sticking up for HD-DVD because I'm tired of reading about how Blu-Ray is superior and that HD-DVD shouldn't even be in the running. It's design is rather elegant as far as being a bridge from DVD. Sony got to rewrite the book when creating Blu-Ray.
This is where Blu-Ray fans miss the boat. Both formats meet the movie studios desires to have HD content on a single disc that supports 132 minutes of video. This means that %95 of feature length films will fit on both formats.
What about all the extras that will need to be put on a second disc? What about all the movies that run longer than 132 minutes? Pressing two HD-DVD discs is still going to cost more and take longer than pressing one Blu-Ray disc. What about the movie trilogy or TV series box sets? What about recording HD content at home? As long as shortsighted accountants are running the show consumers are not going to get a viable HD format. Upgrading the manufacturing process now will pay off in the future but they only care about immediate gains even if it means shooting themselves in the foot.
According to news coming out of CeBIT it seems the HD-DVD consortium will not allow manufacturers who support both formats to create HD-DVD/Blu-Ray combo drives, at least not for computer use. Another example of consumers getting the shaft. They say the same thing about DVD+R/RW though and it hasn't stopped manufacturers from doing it. I guess it simply means they will not get the official HD-DVD pucker up and kiss my ass seal of approval? Big whoop.
Both formats have enough space for 2+ hours at standard ATSC broadcast bandwidth of 19.8Mbps. Move to AVC or VC-1 for your recording and your time just goes up. Extras are likely to be in standard definition on both formats.
As for movies that go beyond the 3hrs that HD-DVD supports or 5hrs that Blu-Ray supports then dual discs would have to be used but that's only %5 of discs produced.
HD-DVD-R single layer actually records to 20GB rather than the ROM's 15GB so it actually improves. Their working on a dual layer HD-DVD RW that supports 32GB.
That's crappy news coming out of Cebit. I was hoping for the potential of a Universal drive. We'll see how that plays out. If the price premium for Blu-Ray is insignificant and the discs are liked more by consumers then we could see a winner emerge in 5 years or so.
I kind of wished that Apple would stay neutral here because supporting both at the OS level would have been trivial thus choosing sides is just politicking.
It looks like we will get both formats, but I cannot see HD-DVD lasting very long. To begin, let clear up the data capacity issue. The ROM version for HD-DVD, which the movie industry will use, has 15 GB single layer. See these two references:
Blu-Ray has 67 percent greater data storage than HD-DVD. That is very significant. While HD-DVD may be able to hold 95 percent of HD movies made, there is little or no room for extra content. Those studios going with Blu-Ray, on the other hand, will be able to provide plenty of extras on the disc. Studios using HD-DVD must either be satisfied omitting most of the extras or add a second disc, which turns any tiny cost advantage into a bigger cost disadvantage. Maybe extra content isn't very important to consumers today; I don't know. Yet if there is any way that Blu-Ray studios can exploit the extra capacity for some kind of marketing advantage, they will do it. Other studios either switch to Blu-Ray or eat the cost of an extra disc. There is an old saying about being penny wise but pound foolish.
. . . I kind of wished that Apple would stay neutral here because supporting both at the OS level would have been trivial thus choosing sides is just politicking.
I think there is something going on between Sony and Apple. Apple waited a while before giving solid support to Blu-Ray. Maybe Apple used it as a bargaining issues. Who can tell what Apple got in exchange, or what the two might be cooperating on?
I think there is something going on between Sony and Apple. Apple waited a while before giving solid support to Blu-Ray. Maybe Apple used it as a bargaining issues. Who can tell what Apple got in exchange, or what the two might be cooperating on?
Yeah Snoopy I feel the same way. I guess I'm just feeling bittersweet here. Blu-Ray is really cool but no one really knows what it's going to cost. HD-DVD is practical and no one knows what it's going to cost but it's a little easier to predict.
One format would have rocked but give me HD recording and i'll deal with it. I wonder if Netflix and other services like it will get access quickly to Blu-Ray or HD-DVD. Since getting my Netflix account I don't buy as many DVDs thank God.
It looks like we will get both formats, but I cannot see HD-DVD lasting very long. To begin, let clear up the data capacity issue. The ROM version for HD-DVD, which the movie industry will use, has 15 GB single layer. See these two references:
Blu-Ray has 67 percent greater data storage than HD-DVD. That is very significant. While HD-DVD may be able to hold 95 percent of HD movies made, there is little or no room for extra content. Those studios going with Blu-Ray, on the other hand, will be able to provide plenty of extras on the disc. Studios using HD-DVD must either be satisfied omitting most of the extras or add a second disc, which turns any tiny cost advantage into a bigger cost disadvantage. Maybe extra content isn't very important to consumers today; I don't know. Yet if there is any way that Blu-Ray studios can exploit the extra capacity for some kind of marketing advantage, they will do it. Other studios either switch to Blu-Ray or eat the cost of an extra disc. There is an old saying about being penny wise but pound foolish.
I think extra features on DVD's have serious potential once Home Media systems take off that can read the ROM portion of the disk. Think about watching a U2 Concert on DVD with live links, and high speed access to an actual concert, and links to the iTMS, or group website where you can download additional junk. (whatever the artists mind thinks of).. What about watching Star wars (or matrix, or something that doesn't exist yet) 6-ilogy (whatever that would be) with access to a game to play on you home media system. Some of this stuff is pretty much obtainable now, but is in actuality right around the corner. I agree that both formats are probably the right way to start because every consumer wont adopt it from day one, but in the end Blue-Ray seems necessary.
But that's just real quick ideas. The DVD extras, or any ROM content are limited only by ones own imagination.
I kind of wished that Apple would stay neutral here because supporting both at the OS level would have been trivial thus choosing sides is just politicking.
I think Apple made the right decision here. Even if Blu-Ray fails to be accepted by consumers for prerecorded movies it is still the clear winner for computer use. Not only does it have significantly larger capacity (and greater potential for further gains) it also has much faster data transfer rates. It's ideally suited for this.
The reports coming out of CeBIT, CES, etc. seem to indicate serious picture quality issues with HD-DVD (digital artifacts, bleeding, etc.) that the Blu-Ray demos have not shown. Maybe the Blu-Ray demos have the bitrate cranked up to the max which is something HD-DVD cannot afford due to the lower capacity. Okay, maybe the average consumer won't find them serious and I guess that's the problem. I want a HD format that's truly worthy of the name but I suspect most will see the HD-DVD logo and buy it for name recognition.
It's really hard to tell how things are going to work out though. Blu-Ray is clearly the better format but Sony's Beta format was better than VHS and it lost out regardless. However, this time around they own almost half the movie studios and all the major manufacturers are supporting it as well. Things are quite different this time around. I think we all can agree this is going to be a mess.
We may simply end up with no clear winner and two formats to deal with.
<<If we get both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD formats, as so many believe will happen>>
Given the slow adoption rate of HD TV by anyone other than techno geeks (not meant as an insult) and the very affluent, it's a very real possibility that if there's two competing HD DVD standards, the average consumer is going to sit on the sidelines perfectly content with their standard DVDs. Then the winner in the HD DVDs, if in fact these format survive at all, will be the faction that has the deepest pockets and can sustain the most financial loss.
I don't know about that. It seems everyone has money to burn these days and judging from the crowds in the HD display area of Best Buy it seems everyone is buying one.
The Digital Bits weighs in on Apple's decision. Take note of the last two lines.
Some more major news today. The Blu-ray Disc Association has announced that Apple Computer has become its latest member, making Blu-ray Disc its choice in the coming next-generation optical disc format war. This is a big deal, folks. The Blu-ray Disc Association already has the support of PC giants Dell, Sony and HP. It's long been our belief that on the technical merits of the Blu-ray Disc and HD-DVD specs alone, Blu-ray is the clear winner. It seems that most of the computer and electronics industries agree. Keep in mind that Sony's forthcoming PS3 videogame platform is going to use Blu-ray Disc as its storage format. It seems now that the only real war between these two formats is going to be waged in Hollywood between the studios already supporting Blu-ray (Disney, Sony, MGM and possibly Fox, which we hear is leaning toward Blu-ray) and those supporting HD-DVD (Warner, Universal, Paramount and New Line). There are also rumors that a number of major retailers like WalMart and Best Buy may be planning to carry one format or the other exclusively. It's gonna get very ugly before all this is over, folks.
I wouldn't worry about which format Wal Mart and Best Buy carry exclusively. If many people are buying the other format, they will soon carry both. The real war will be the studios. What format will studios use to distribute HD movies? We know that Sony, which I believe may be Columbia and MGM, will be exclusively Blu-Ray because of their huge investment in it. Do the studios supporting HD-DVD have large investments to protect? If not, I'd say their choice of HD-DVD is subject to change. If many consumers purchase Blu-Ray equipment, these studios would probably start offering both formats. I don't expect to see HD-DVD around for more than five years or so.
I believe consumers will purchase players based on which studio's movies they watch the most. I doubt they care whether the player has the letters DVD on it or not.
Where are the Blu-Ray disk mastering tools? How difficult are they to use? Why do most DVD "features" end up annoying the hell out of me? (must...watch...FBI...warning...)
Weren't DVD incompatibilities enough to handle without worrying about embedded Java crap?
Also, doesn't Sony have a crappy record of making incompatible formats?
I think the initial manufacturing worries are overblown. Technically Blu-Ray requires lower tolerances (at least single-layer) because you don't have to worry about the polycarbonate layer thickness being even.
Anyway, I see no reason to buy a Blu-Ray drive unless I can burn PS3 games. I backup on a 60GB firewire drive. I never liked optical media. My 44MB Syquest disks still work which is more than I can say about most of my 2yr old software CDs.
I don't expect to see HD-DVD around for more than five years or so.
I'm not defending, or against HD-DVD, but being that they can use the same equipment that produces current DVD's to make HD_DVD's it doesn't seem like it would take them that long to quickly get in the game being that every DVD manufacturer already has the power in their hands so to speak.
I'm not defending, or against HD-DVD, but being that they can use the same equipment that produces current DVD's to make HD_DVD's it doesn't seem like it would take them that long to quickly get in the game being that every DVD manufacturer already has the power in their hands so to speak.
You're right, and HD-DVD may have more titles to market in the beginning. The big question is whether they can hold on to a lead once the advantages of Blu-Ray become obvious. It's Blu-Ray's 67 percent greater data capacity that will eventually sink HD-DVD in my opinion.
Why? So you can put all four seasons of Aqua Teen on one disc?
You could probably still do that on one dual-layer HD-DVD.
67% sounds like a lot, but its only relevant given the marginal utility of that extra space.
I hear some of the new menu content (extras) ideas, and possibilities will only be feasible with Blue Ray because of all the extra space. Apparently they have some serious ideas for the content of HD to set the new standard apart from DVD to get users to buy the new players sooner.
AFAIAC I could live with my regular home DVD player for quite some time to come, but if they make a compelling product that is extremely attractive as I have been hearing, It's going to be a much faster transition than VHS to DVD was because people will actually want to convert to the new disks that much faster. I'm not even talking about homes that have HD TV's. That's not the market they are going after. They want people to get on this before they get a new TV. Because even if you cant see HD without an HD TV you can still use all it's features, and extra content.
Comments
My contention has always been that both formats are unfortunately inevitable. Blu-Ray is a technical marvel but consumers are loathe to pay more if cheaper optons exist. That cheaper option will be HD-DVD thus despite giving up 20GB of storage HD-DVD has the strength where it counts.
I'll have both formats and I see BR as being great for storage duties on computers. I don't necessarily agree with people trying to trivialize costs of production. Volume production lowers the cost of almost everything and seeing as how both formats have damn near a 50/50 split HD-DVD will have the volume production to lower costs as well.
I think Apple is jumping the gun just like Dell and HP and others have done. It'll be interesting to see how inexpensive the recordable media for both is. Remember Blu-Ray requires the TDK coating for durability but It's unclear on whether BD-R discs will have this. If not then your data is .1mm away from being damaged.
I just feel like sticking up for HD-DVD because I'm tired of reading about how Blu-Ray is superior and that HD-DVD shouldn't even be in the running. It's design is rather elegant as far as being a bridge from DVD. Sony got to rewrite the book when creating Blu-Ray.
I'll take both please.
Originally posted by hmurchison
This is where Blu-Ray fans miss the boat. Both formats meet the movie studios desires to have HD content on a single disc that supports 132 minutes of video. This means that %95 of feature length films will fit on both formats.
What about all the extras that will need to be put on a second disc? What about all the movies that run longer than 132 minutes? Pressing two HD-DVD discs is still going to cost more and take longer than pressing one Blu-Ray disc. What about the movie trilogy or TV series box sets? What about recording HD content at home? As long as shortsighted accountants are running the show consumers are not going to get a viable HD format. Upgrading the manufacturing process now will pay off in the future but they only care about immediate gains even if it means shooting themselves in the foot.
According to news coming out of CeBIT it seems the HD-DVD consortium will not allow manufacturers who support both formats to create HD-DVD/Blu-Ray combo drives, at least not for computer use. Another example of consumers getting the shaft. They say the same thing about DVD+R/RW though and it hasn't stopped manufacturers from doing it. I guess it simply means they will not get the official HD-DVD pucker up and kiss my ass seal of approval? Big whoop.
Both formats have enough space for 2+ hours at standard ATSC broadcast bandwidth of 19.8Mbps. Move to AVC or VC-1 for your recording and your time just goes up. Extras are likely to be in standard definition on both formats.
As for movies that go beyond the 3hrs that HD-DVD supports or 5hrs that Blu-Ray supports then dual discs would have to be used but that's only %5 of discs produced.
HD-DVD-R single layer actually records to 20GB rather than the ROM's 15GB so it actually improves. Their working on a dual layer HD-DVD RW that supports 32GB.
That's crappy news coming out of Cebit. I was hoping for the potential of a Universal drive. We'll see how that plays out. If the price premium for Blu-Ray is insignificant and the discs are liked more by consumers then we could see a winner emerge in 5 years or so.
I kind of wished that Apple would stay neutral here because supporting both at the OS level would have been trivial thus choosing sides is just politicking.
http://www.cdfreaks.com/article/186/2
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/03...sis/page5.html
Blu-Ray has 67 percent greater data storage than HD-DVD. That is very significant. While HD-DVD may be able to hold 95 percent of HD movies made, there is little or no room for extra content. Those studios going with Blu-Ray, on the other hand, will be able to provide plenty of extras on the disc. Studios using HD-DVD must either be satisfied omitting most of the extras or add a second disc, which turns any tiny cost advantage into a bigger cost disadvantage. Maybe extra content isn't very important to consumers today; I don't know. Yet if there is any way that Blu-Ray studios can exploit the extra capacity for some kind of marketing advantage, they will do it. Other studios either switch to Blu-Ray or eat the cost of an extra disc. There is an old saying about being penny wise but pound foolish.
Originally posted by hmurchison
. . . I kind of wished that Apple would stay neutral here because supporting both at the OS level would have been trivial thus choosing sides is just politicking.
I think there is something going on between Sony and Apple. Apple waited a while before giving solid support to Blu-Ray. Maybe Apple used it as a bargaining issues. Who can tell what Apple got in exchange, or what the two might be cooperating on?
Originally posted by snoopy
I think there is something going on between Sony and Apple. Apple waited a while before giving solid support to Blu-Ray. Maybe Apple used it as a bargaining issues. Who can tell what Apple got in exchange, or what the two might be cooperating on?
Yeah Snoopy I feel the same way. I guess I'm just feeling bittersweet here. Blu-Ray is really cool but no one really knows what it's going to cost. HD-DVD is practical and no one knows what it's going to cost but it's a little easier to predict.
One format would have rocked but give me HD recording and i'll deal with it. I wonder if Netflix and other services like it will get access quickly to Blu-Ray or HD-DVD. Since getting my Netflix account I don't buy as many DVDs thank God.
Originally posted by snoopy
It looks like we will get both formats, but I cannot see HD-DVD lasting very long. To begin, let clear up the data capacity issue. The ROM version for HD-DVD, which the movie industry will use, has 15 GB single layer. See these two references:
http://www.cdfreaks.com/article/186/2
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/03...sis/page5.html
Blu-Ray has 67 percent greater data storage than HD-DVD. That is very significant. While HD-DVD may be able to hold 95 percent of HD movies made, there is little or no room for extra content. Those studios going with Blu-Ray, on the other hand, will be able to provide plenty of extras on the disc. Studios using HD-DVD must either be satisfied omitting most of the extras or add a second disc, which turns any tiny cost advantage into a bigger cost disadvantage. Maybe extra content isn't very important to consumers today; I don't know. Yet if there is any way that Blu-Ray studios can exploit the extra capacity for some kind of marketing advantage, they will do it. Other studios either switch to Blu-Ray or eat the cost of an extra disc. There is an old saying about being penny wise but pound foolish.
I think extra features on DVD's have serious potential once Home Media systems take off that can read the ROM portion of the disk. Think about watching a U2 Concert on DVD with live links, and high speed access to an actual concert, and links to the iTMS, or group website where you can download additional junk. (whatever the artists mind thinks of).. What about watching Star wars (or matrix, or something that doesn't exist yet) 6-ilogy (whatever that would be) with access to a game to play on you home media system. Some of this stuff is pretty much obtainable now, but is in actuality right around the corner. I agree that both formats are probably the right way to start because every consumer wont adopt it from day one, but in the end Blue-Ray seems necessary.
But that's just real quick ideas. The DVD extras, or any ROM content are limited only by ones own imagination.
Originally posted by hmurchison
I kind of wished that Apple would stay neutral here because supporting both at the OS level would have been trivial thus choosing sides is just politicking.
I think Apple made the right decision here. Even if Blu-Ray fails to be accepted by consumers for prerecorded movies it is still the clear winner for computer use. Not only does it have significantly larger capacity (and greater potential for further gains) it also has much faster data transfer rates. It's ideally suited for this.
It's really hard to tell how things are going to work out though. Blu-Ray is clearly the better format but Sony's Beta format was better than VHS and it lost out regardless. However, this time around they own almost half the movie studios and all the major manufacturers are supporting it as well. Things are quite different this time around. I think we all can agree this is going to be a mess.
We may simply end up with no clear winner and two formats to deal with.
Given the slow adoption rate of HD TV by anyone other than techno geeks (not meant as an insult) and the very affluent, it's a very real possibility that if there's two competing HD DVD standards, the average consumer is going to sit on the sidelines perfectly content with their standard DVDs. Then the winner in the HD DVDs, if in fact these format survive at all, will be the faction that has the deepest pockets and can sustain the most financial loss.
Some more major news today. The Blu-ray Disc Association has announced that Apple Computer has become its latest member, making Blu-ray Disc its choice in the coming next-generation optical disc format war. This is a big deal, folks. The Blu-ray Disc Association already has the support of PC giants Dell, Sony and HP. It's long been our belief that on the technical merits of the Blu-ray Disc and HD-DVD specs alone, Blu-ray is the clear winner. It seems that most of the computer and electronics industries agree. Keep in mind that Sony's forthcoming PS3 videogame platform is going to use Blu-ray Disc as its storage format. It seems now that the only real war between these two formats is going to be waged in Hollywood between the studios already supporting Blu-ray (Disney, Sony, MGM and possibly Fox, which we hear is leaning toward Blu-ray) and those supporting HD-DVD (Warner, Universal, Paramount and New Line). There are also rumors that a number of major retailers like WalMart and Best Buy may be planning to carry one format or the other exclusively. It's gonna get very ugly before all this is over, folks.
I believe consumers will purchase players based on which studio's movies they watch the most. I doubt they care whether the player has the letters DVD on it or not.
Weren't DVD incompatibilities enough to handle without worrying about embedded Java crap?
Also, doesn't Sony have a crappy record of making incompatible formats?
I think the initial manufacturing worries are overblown. Technically Blu-Ray requires lower tolerances (at least single-layer) because you don't have to worry about the polycarbonate layer thickness being even.
Anyway, I see no reason to buy a Blu-Ray drive unless I can burn PS3 games. I backup on a 60GB firewire drive. I never liked optical media. My 44MB Syquest disks still work which is more than I can say about most of my 2yr old software CDs.
I don't expect to see HD-DVD around for more than five years or so.
I'm not defending, or against HD-DVD, but being that they can use the same equipment that produces current DVD's to make HD_DVD's it doesn't seem like it would take them that long to quickly get in the game being that every DVD manufacturer already has the power in their hands so to speak.
Originally posted by onlooker
I'm not defending, or against HD-DVD, but being that they can use the same equipment that produces current DVD's to make HD_DVD's it doesn't seem like it would take them that long to quickly get in the game being that every DVD manufacturer already has the power in their hands so to speak.
You're right, and HD-DVD may have more titles to market in the beginning. The big question is whether they can hold on to a lead once the advantages of Blu-Ray become obvious. It's Blu-Ray's 67 percent greater data capacity that will eventually sink HD-DVD in my opinion.
Originally posted by snoopy
It's Blu-Ray's 67 percent greater data capacity that will eventually sink HD-DVD in my opinion.
Why? So you can put all four seasons of Aqua Teen on one disc?
You could probably still do that on one dual-layer HD-DVD.
67% sounds like a lot, but its only relevant given the marginal utility of that extra space.
Originally posted by strobe
Why? So you can put all four seasons of Aqua Teen on one disc?
You could probably still do that on one dual-layer HD-DVD.
67% sounds like a lot, but its only relevant given the marginal utility of that extra space.
I hear some of the new menu content (extras) ideas, and possibilities will only be feasible with Blue Ray because of all the extra space. Apparently they have some serious ideas for the content of HD to set the new standard apart from DVD to get users to buy the new players sooner.
AFAIAC I could live with my regular home DVD player for quite some time to come, but if they make a compelling product that is extremely attractive as I have been hearing, It's going to be a much faster transition than VHS to DVD was because people will actually want to convert to the new disks that much faster. I'm not even talking about homes that have HD TV's. That's not the market they are going after. They want people to get on this before they get a new TV. Because even if you cant see HD without an HD TV you can still use all it's features, and extra content.