I've checked in with a number of others (both short and long) and the consensus seems to be that panic is the best hope for tomorrow (as opposed to total chaos). The shorts think it'll open 5-10 point higher, the longs seem to think 5-10 points lower. Unfortunately, all this lunacy will have 3 hours to do all the harm that the market can do before Steve gets up and turns the whole damn thing on it's head, and then the pattern will probably reverse.
A day trader with balls of titanium should be able to make a fortune tomorrow.
But, personally, the more I think the more at ease I am with it, knowing that Steve will soften the blow considerably, and the more inclined I am to ride it out, even with my considerable position in Jan 06 options.
The stock will drop a good percentage tomorrow morning as a result of worried investors selling off certain amounts of their stock. If Steve Jobs announces that apple has partnered with intel to make PPC chips I imagine the stock will go back up and above what it is currently at over the course of a few weeks. If Steve Jobs announces that apple is switching to x86 I would imagine that the stock will stay low until investor's fears are extinguished.
I'd have a stop order in if it drops to low so you don't lose too much. If later the stock starts to rise again you can buy it probably cheaper than you sold it at, if you are paying attention, or you could set a limit order to buy X shares at Y price.
I'm not a broker though and cannot give legal stock advice. The above are just my opinions.
For those who don't want to surf, here's the short answer: laptop PPC with WiMax for Mac Mini Mark II and/or PB/iBook design from Intel.
USB Redux?
Maybe it'll work the same way. Apple was able to adopt USB and spurred the industry to go that way. It'd fit with Universities and Large School Systems (Unwire the Campus). But, they've changed flavors of Ethernet and added/updated Airport without changing CPUs, why do the need a processor change to do this? Maybe it'll make it quicker/easier to deploy, but I wouldn't think it would be a prerequisite. I think if there is a processor change and WiMax is involved it's an extra perk not the central motive for either company. Apple can survive without WiMax and Intel could wave some money at Dull or HP to add it to their laptops.
Pavel Machek, a Linux kernel hacker, claims to have been offered a job by Apple to work on 'ACPI & BIOS' stuff. That stuff is kinda sorta specific to x86.
What is your advice for tomorrow. I have a lot of shares in AAPL.
I'm sitting tight. I have a lot of shares as well - but far more options.
I'm not worried about the shares - been sitting on those for a long time now and whatever happens tomorrow will be part of a larger plan, so they'll come back.
The options are Jan 06, so there's not much time to recover, but the more I read this, the more I learn about it, the better I feel. I think we'll open up, jump all over the damn place, but we won't close significantly down. I think that in spite of the uncertainty of short-term sales, the certainty of Intel as a chip supplier over IBM/Freescale will bring the longs in. I think the street will like this, if I'm reading it right. Wish I was holding Jan 07s, though.
I think there's a surprise in this that we haven't seen - some *other* reason to partner with Intel. Steve has a history of doing that - of seeing 3 plays where you'd only expect 1 and walking away with a deal that seems imbalanced in his favor. I think we'll see a new product segment that will offset any potential loss of hardware sales due to the transition.
AAPL has been good to me. I've read the leaves right many, many times, and I think I have this one wired as well, but I've never been so anxious going into keynote.
I'm sitting tight. I have a lot of shares as well - but far more options.
I'm not worried about the shares - been sitting on those for a long time now and whatever happens tomorrow will be part of a larger plan, so they'll come back.
The options are Jan 06, so there's not much time to recover, but the more I read this, the more I learn about it, the better I feel. I think we'll open up, jump all over the damn place, but we won't close significantly down. I think that in spite of the uncertainty of short-term sales, the certainty of Intel as a chip supplier over IBM/Freescale will bring the longs in. I think the street will like this, if I'm reading it right. Wish I was holding Jan 07s, though.
I think there's a surprise in this that we haven't seen - some *other* reason to partner with Intel. Steve has a history of doing that - of seeing 3 plays where you'd only expect 1 and walking away with a deal that seems imbalanced in his favor. I think we'll see a new product segment that will offset any potential loss of hardware sales due to the transition.
AAPL has been good to me. I've read the leaves right many, many times, and I think I have this one wired as well, but I've never been so anxious going into keynote.
AAPL has been good for me too. I can't really afford to keep the shares if apple's future begins to look too risky however.
I like what I read at Blackfriar Communications blog. Looks very hopeful really. The news stories have just been blown out of proportion. Nevertheless, I will not be sleeping well tonight. When news like this comes out its fun for many but for us investors it can be incredibly stressful.
I bought recently some AAPL here in Belgium before the whole EU crisis. Then the EU crisis begun and I saw the dollar grow stronger in comparison with Euro. Lovin' it. I am keeping my stock and will see what happens tomorrow and next few months. It sure is exciting now. 8)
All these whiners about the fact that "IBM makes a 3.2Ghz chip for the new consoles". Do you know why? The chips for the next gen consoles are simpler in design than G5 is.
That means that it is easier for the clock speeds to go up. The console chips were designed with a particular speed in mind. They weren't designed to scale or change like the G5, or perform as much tasks as the G5.
All these whiners about the fact that "IBM makes a 3.2Ghz chip for the new consoles". Do you know why? The chips for the next gen consoles are simpler in design than G5 is.
Thank you!
The console chips are entirely different to G5s, which is why Xbox360 isn't going to cost $3000.
Different designs, different teams, different process lines. No impact whatsoever on G5 production.
I'm sitting tight. I have a lot of shares as well - but far more options.
I'm not worried about the shares - been sitting on those for a long time now and whatever happens tomorrow will be part of a larger plan, so they'll come back.
The options are Jan 06, so there's not much time to recover, but the more I read this, the more I learn about it, the better I feel. I think we'll open up, jump all over the damn place, but we won't close significantly down. I think that in spite of the uncertainty of short-term sales, the certainty of Intel as a chip supplier over IBM/Freescale will bring the longs in. I think the street will like this, if I'm reading it right. Wish I was holding Jan 07s, though.
I think there's a surprise in this that we haven't seen - some *other* reason to partner with Intel. Steve has a history of doing that - of seeing 3 plays where you'd only expect 1 and walking away with a deal that seems imbalanced in his favor. I think we'll see a new product segment that will offset any potential loss of hardware sales due to the transition.
AAPL has been good to me. I've read the leaves right many, many times, and I think I have this one wired as well, but I've never been so anxious going into keynote.
AAPL stock has been good to me also and I am betting on SJ. If I am wrong it has been an exciting ride. But I believe that besides the alleged announcement of a ''switch'' to Intel Jobs will also give us a roadmap of something other than Macs. i.e. V I D E O. I really expect to see a prototype of some sort of vPod/movie/iTunes device using Intel. What a great way to sugar coat things for the critics. an iPod successor.
I don't know if we are going to see something this early on an intel processor right away, but I'm sure there will be some video streaming in the works involving intel processor driven machines.
The stock will drop a good percentage tomorrow morning as a result of worried investors selling off certain amounts of their stock. If Steve Jobs announces that apple has partnered with intel to make PPC chips I imagine the stock will go back up and above what it is currently at over the course of a few weeks. If Steve Jobs announces that apple is switching to x86 I would imagine that the stock will stay low until investor's fears are extinguished.
I'd have a stop order in if it drops to low so you don't lose too much. If later the stock starts to rise again you can buy it probably cheaper than you sold it at, if you are paying attention, or you could set a limit order to buy X shares at Y price.
I'm not a broker though and cannot give legal stock advice. The above are just my opinions.
Ugh, the stock went up last month on reports that Apple was dropping IBM for more mainstream Intel chips. The market will love this. What the market really wants is for Apple to drop its OS and use a modified version of Windows - that still looks mac like. That is, they become just another computer maker.
Ugh, the stock went up last month on reports that Apple was dropping IBM for more mainstream Intel chips. The market will love this. What the market really wants is for Apple to drop its OS and use a modified version of Windows - that still looks mac like. That was, they become just another computer maker.
Looks like the market it taking the news in stride. It's all over TV now and the papers this morning, but it looks like we'll open up about a buck. Interestingly, AMAT is supposed to make a major announcement this afternoon (4PM EST).
Picking up Apple isn't so much a coup for Intel, but certainly would be for AMAT.
I was totally prepared to check the hot sheets when I got home from out of town today, find out this business about Intel to be utter bunk, and then buy the 20" iMac I've been considering for a few weeks.
Not going to happen now.
Quote:
Originally posted by steve666
Now that its official I'm not buying a Mac Mini until Intel's inside.
How would you guys feel about buying a Mac now when you know it will be considered old architecture next year?
Now that its official I'm not buying a Mac Mini until Intel's inside.
How would you guys feel about buying a Mac now when you know it will be considered old architecture next year?
I bought a brand new iMac a few weeks ago. I don't believe the intel switch effects PowerPC-based Mac users at all. Apple just shipped Tiger a few months ago, and it runs faster and more optimized than any version prior. Final Cut Studio just showed up on my doorstep today, which runs faster and more optimized than any previous version. Adobe Creative Suite 2 just shipped a few weeks ago, that's faster and more optimized than any version prior.
It's going to be probably four years or more before software runs as good on Intel-based Macs as it does on PowerPC-based Macs today. You can safely buy a Mac today and use it for four years. If you're seriously considering buying expensive software for your Mac of today in 2009, then you need to rethink the purchases you make which most-increase your productivity. You shouldn't be buying expensive pro software for a four year old computer.
Getting an Intel-based Mac in a year is going to be like running OS X 10.0 the day it came out; it was exciting, but you couldn't run anything on it. Rest-assured, you can buy a Mac today.
Comments
Originally posted by johnsonwax
So what are your thoughts on AAPL?
I've checked in with a number of others (both short and long) and the consensus seems to be that panic is the best hope for tomorrow (as opposed to total chaos). The shorts think it'll open 5-10 point higher, the longs seem to think 5-10 points lower. Unfortunately, all this lunacy will have 3 hours to do all the harm that the market can do before Steve gets up and turns the whole damn thing on it's head, and then the pattern will probably reverse.
A day trader with balls of titanium should be able to make a fortune tomorrow.
But, personally, the more I think the more at ease I am with it, knowing that Steve will soften the blow considerably, and the more inclined I am to ride it out, even with my considerable position in Jan 06 options.
The stock will drop a good percentage tomorrow morning as a result of worried investors selling off certain amounts of their stock. If Steve Jobs announces that apple has partnered with intel to make PPC chips I imagine the stock will go back up and above what it is currently at over the course of a few weeks. If Steve Jobs announces that apple is switching to x86 I would imagine that the stock will stay low until investor's fears are extinguished.
I'd have a stop order in if it drops to low so you don't lose too much. If later the stock starts to rise again you can buy it probably cheaper than you sold it at, if you are paying attention, or you could set a limit order to buy X shares at Y price.
I'm not a broker though and cannot give legal stock advice. The above are just my opinions.
Originally posted by Sam Damon
For once this weekend, an analysis that adds something to this whole discussion:
Blackfriar Communications blog
For those who don't want to surf, here's the short answer: laptop PPC with WiMax for Mac Mini Mark II and/or PB/iBook design from Intel.
USB Redux?
Maybe it'll work the same way. Apple was able to adopt USB and spurred the industry to go that way. It'd fit with Universities and Large School Systems (Unwire the Campus). But, they've changed flavors of Ethernet and added/updated Airport without changing CPUs, why do the need a processor change to do this? Maybe it'll make it quicker/easier to deploy, but I wouldn't think it would be a prerequisite. I think if there is a processor change and WiMax is involved it's an extra perk not the central motive for either company. Apple can survive without WiMax and Intel could wave some money at Dull or HP to add it to their laptops.
Originally posted by Algol
I'm not a broker though and cannot give legal stock advice. The above are just my opinions.
FWIW, the brokers are lost right now on this as well.
Just curious what the reaction of others is. I disagree with you, but just barely.
Good luck tomorrow.
His journal entry is here
Originally posted by johnsonwax
FWIW, the brokers are lost right now on this as well.
Just curious what the reaction of others is. I disagree with you, but just barely.
Good luck tomorrow.
What is your advice for tomorrow. I have a lot of shares in AAPL.
Originally posted by johnsonwax
A day trader with balls of titanium should be able to make a fortune tomorrow.
This pretty much puts everything into proper perspective
Originally posted by Algol
What is your advice for tomorrow. I have a lot of shares in AAPL.
I'm sitting tight. I have a lot of shares as well - but far more options.
I'm not worried about the shares - been sitting on those for a long time now and whatever happens tomorrow will be part of a larger plan, so they'll come back.
The options are Jan 06, so there's not much time to recover, but the more I read this, the more I learn about it, the better I feel. I think we'll open up, jump all over the damn place, but we won't close significantly down. I think that in spite of the uncertainty of short-term sales, the certainty of Intel as a chip supplier over IBM/Freescale will bring the longs in. I think the street will like this, if I'm reading it right. Wish I was holding Jan 07s, though.
I think there's a surprise in this that we haven't seen - some *other* reason to partner with Intel. Steve has a history of doing that - of seeing 3 plays where you'd only expect 1 and walking away with a deal that seems imbalanced in his favor. I think we'll see a new product segment that will offset any potential loss of hardware sales due to the transition.
AAPL has been good to me. I've read the leaves right many, many times, and I think I have this one wired as well, but I've never been so anxious going into keynote.
Originally posted by Algol
What is your advice for tomorrow. I have a lot of shares in AAPL.
I'm not a broker and cannot give legal stock advice. The below are just my opinions.
Hedge. If I had a long position on APPL then I would lock it in by buying call options. And then I'd sell all my AAPL stock and go long on GOOG
In practice there are more strategies one can take - a broker can be of assitance.
Originally posted by johnsonwax
I'm sitting tight. I have a lot of shares as well - but far more options.
I'm not worried about the shares - been sitting on those for a long time now and whatever happens tomorrow will be part of a larger plan, so they'll come back.
The options are Jan 06, so there's not much time to recover, but the more I read this, the more I learn about it, the better I feel. I think we'll open up, jump all over the damn place, but we won't close significantly down. I think that in spite of the uncertainty of short-term sales, the certainty of Intel as a chip supplier over IBM/Freescale will bring the longs in. I think the street will like this, if I'm reading it right. Wish I was holding Jan 07s, though.
I think there's a surprise in this that we haven't seen - some *other* reason to partner with Intel. Steve has a history of doing that - of seeing 3 plays where you'd only expect 1 and walking away with a deal that seems imbalanced in his favor. I think we'll see a new product segment that will offset any potential loss of hardware sales due to the transition.
AAPL has been good to me. I've read the leaves right many, many times, and I think I have this one wired as well, but I've never been so anxious going into keynote.
AAPL has been good for me too. I can't really afford to keep the shares if apple's future begins to look too risky however.
I like what I read at Blackfriar Communications blog. Looks very hopeful really. The news stories have just been blown out of proportion. Nevertheless, I will not be sleeping well tonight. When news like this comes out its fun for many but for us investors it can be incredibly stressful.
That means that it is easier for the clock speeds to go up. The console chips were designed with a particular speed in mind. They weren't designed to scale or change like the G5, or perform as much tasks as the G5.
It isn't that simple.
Originally posted by mattyj
All these whiners about the fact that "IBM makes a 3.2Ghz chip for the new consoles". Do you know why? The chips for the next gen consoles are simpler in design than G5 is.
Thank you!
The console chips are entirely different to G5s, which is why Xbox360 isn't going to cost $3000.
Different designs, different teams, different process lines. No impact whatsoever on G5 production.
Originally posted by johnsonwax
I'm sitting tight. I have a lot of shares as well - but far more options.
I'm not worried about the shares - been sitting on those for a long time now and whatever happens tomorrow will be part of a larger plan, so they'll come back.
The options are Jan 06, so there's not much time to recover, but the more I read this, the more I learn about it, the better I feel. I think we'll open up, jump all over the damn place, but we won't close significantly down. I think that in spite of the uncertainty of short-term sales, the certainty of Intel as a chip supplier over IBM/Freescale will bring the longs in. I think the street will like this, if I'm reading it right. Wish I was holding Jan 07s, though.
I think there's a surprise in this that we haven't seen - some *other* reason to partner with Intel. Steve has a history of doing that - of seeing 3 plays where you'd only expect 1 and walking away with a deal that seems imbalanced in his favor. I think we'll see a new product segment that will offset any potential loss of hardware sales due to the transition.
AAPL has been good to me. I've read the leaves right many, many times, and I think I have this one wired as well, but I've never been so anxious going into keynote.
AAPL stock has been good to me also and I am betting on SJ. If I am wrong it has been an exciting ride. But I believe that besides the alleged announcement of a ''switch'' to Intel Jobs will also give us a roadmap of something other than Macs. i.e. V I D E O. I really expect to see a prototype of some sort of vPod/movie/iTunes device using Intel. What a great way to sugar coat things for the critics. an iPod successor.
Originally posted by Algol
The stock will drop a good percentage tomorrow morning as a result of worried investors selling off certain amounts of their stock. If Steve Jobs announces that apple has partnered with intel to make PPC chips I imagine the stock will go back up and above what it is currently at over the course of a few weeks. If Steve Jobs announces that apple is switching to x86 I would imagine that the stock will stay low until investor's fears are extinguished.
I'd have a stop order in if it drops to low so you don't lose too much. If later the stock starts to rise again you can buy it probably cheaper than you sold it at, if you are paying attention, or you could set a limit order to buy X shares at Y price.
I'm not a broker though and cannot give legal stock advice. The above are just my opinions.
Ugh, the stock went up last month on reports that Apple was dropping IBM for more mainstream Intel chips. The market will love this. What the market really wants is for Apple to drop its OS and use a modified version of Windows - that still looks mac like. That is, they become just another computer maker.
Originally posted by anand
Ugh, the stock went up last month on reports that Apple was dropping IBM for more mainstream Intel chips. The market will love this. What the market really wants is for Apple to drop its OS and use a modified version of Windows - that still looks mac like. That was, they become just another computer maker.
Looks like the market it taking the news in stride. It's all over TV now and the papers this morning, but it looks like we'll open up about a buck. Interestingly, AMAT is supposed to make a major announcement this afternoon (4PM EST).
Picking up Apple isn't so much a coup for Intel, but certainly would be for AMAT.
How would you guys feel about buying a Mac now when you know it will be considered old architecture next year?
Ever since SJ came back, Apple ALWAYS does what I tell them.
NeXT stop, skinny fast Mac OS Xntel freebee for winWows users -- poison pill for Microsoft.
Not going to happen now.
Originally posted by steve666
Now that its official I'm not buying a Mac Mini until Intel's inside.
How would you guys feel about buying a Mac now when you know it will be considered old architecture next year?
Originally posted by steve666
Now that its official I'm not buying a Mac Mini until Intel's inside.
How would you guys feel about buying a Mac now when you know it will be considered old architecture next year?
I bought a brand new iMac a few weeks ago. I don't believe the intel switch effects PowerPC-based Mac users at all. Apple just shipped Tiger a few months ago, and it runs faster and more optimized than any version prior. Final Cut Studio just showed up on my doorstep today, which runs faster and more optimized than any previous version. Adobe Creative Suite 2 just shipped a few weeks ago, that's faster and more optimized than any version prior.
It's going to be probably four years or more before software runs as good on Intel-based Macs as it does on PowerPC-based Macs today. You can safely buy a Mac today and use it for four years. If you're seriously considering buying expensive software for your Mac of today in 2009, then you need to rethink the purchases you make which most-increase your productivity. You shouldn't be buying expensive pro software for a four year old computer.
Getting an Intel-based Mac in a year is going to be like running OS X 10.0 the day it came out; it was exciting, but you couldn't run anything on it. Rest-assured, you can buy a Mac today.