The "soon" here cannot be so... soon. The Powerbook cannot get the new 7448 from Freescale before this October, even if the announcement of the new models is for Apple Expo. Between now and then it is three months. Three months with the iBook cannibalizing the Powerbook (if the update was more aggressive) is not good.
That's true. But that's why it depends on when they can get an Intel into the Mac. The longer it takes for the new G4 to get into the PowerBook, the less chance there is that they'll use it at all, with the Intel Macs on there way in.
Why do so many people around here seem to think that Apple's going to have Mactel's by January? It was very clearly laid out, barely a month ago, that Apple would begin delivering Intel-based Macs "by this time next year" (i.e. June 2006), and have the transition completed by the end of 2007.
I think our AI fellows that support this position, are taking to the letter this statement from the PR:
Quote:
plans to deliver models of its Macintosh? computers using Intel? microprocessors by this time next year
It does not say that they will START delivering "by this time next year"; only that there will be Intel based Macs by then. But I think they read too much on that.
Then, there is the interpretation of the new iBook updates. Perhaps, as evidence evolves, I will change later my mind, but for now I believe that the next Powerbook update will bring the 7448 chip.
Why do so many people around here seem to think that Apple's going to have Mactel's by January? It was very clearly laid out, barely a month ago, that Apple would begin delivering Intel-based Macs "by this time next year" (i.e. June 2006), and have the transition completed by the end of 2007.
To me, that means they'll have maybe one line available with Intel processors next summer. Whatever it is will probably be announced at WWDC--NOT Macworld--and ship sometime after that. I think it's very likely they'll have at least one PowerPC-based revision to the PowerBooks and Mac Minis before then.
if you honestly think that by this time next year means an intel mac being released at WWDC than I just don't know what to say to you. but, you're going to be very wrong.
by this time next year is not a schedule. it is not even a goal. it is a fact. for all you know tomorrow they could release an Intel mac. It is a very safe bet to say the powerbook will make the switch first and ASAP. it's the one product Jobs highlighted as gasping for Intel. But no, they won't update that right away with an Intel chip...nah..never...and you know what!? they'll wait till the last moment of wwdc2006 just to make it so that by this time next year is true!!! they'll never release it a day earlier!
The longer it takes for the new G4 to get into the PowerBook, the less chance there is that they'll use it at all, with the Intel Macs on there way in.
Yeah, I think so. That is, if there is no new Powerbook before end October, mid November maximum, then the chances for a PowerPC Powerbook will have dropped like rock.
Direct Steve Jobs quote from CNBC interview with Ron Insana:
Quote:
Well [moving to Intel] is not as dramatic as you're characterizing it. You know we've got some great PowerPC products today, and we've even got some PowerPC machines in the pipeline which we haven't introduced yet and this is going to be a more gradual transition. I think hopefully when we meet with our developers a year from today, we'll have some Intel-based Macs in the marketplace. But it's going to take maybe a two year transition...
Why do so many people around here seem to think that Apple's going to have Mactel's by January? It was very clearly laid out, barely a month ago, that Apple would begin delivering Intel-based Macs "by this time next year" (i.e. June 2006), and have the transition completed by the end of 2007.
To me, that means they'll have maybe one line available with Intel processors next summer. Whatever it is will probably be announced at WWDC--NOT Macworld--and ship sometime after that. I think it's very likely they'll have at least one PowerPC-based revision to the PowerBooks and Mac Minis before then.
Note that I said if. "If they can announce them at the January expo, to be shipped a month or so later." I don't consider it a sure thing, but it is a strong possibility.
Why? First, this is what Jobs said at the 2005 WWDC: "So when we meet here again, this time next year, our plan is to be shipping Macs with Intel processors by then." They plan on having already started shipping them by WWDC 2006, not just introducing them at that time, as you suggest.
Second, it is believed that Apple will use Yonah, and that chip will probably be available in early 2006, making it conceivable that Jobs could announce them in January - knowing that Jobs will often pre-announce completely new products so that there is a month-or-so time-lag before they actually ship.
Of course, this is all speculation. It may take a while before they can engineer the new PowerBook. But given Jobs' statement, and given the projected Yonah timeline, it is not unreasonable to say that the first Intel Macs might be announced at the January expo.
Of course, this is all speculation. It may take a while before they can engineer the new PowerBook. But given Jobs' statement, and given the projected Yonah timeline, it is not unreasonable to say that the first Intel Macs might be announced at the January expo.
I can't remember a single time when Apple (or anyone else, for that matter) shipped a product six months earlier than anticipated. Every time in my memory that Apple announced a major new product line in advance of it shipping, it came later than they initially indicated: the original Power Macintosh, Copeland/System 8, Rhapsody/Mac OS X, the Power Mac G4, 3GHz G5, the list goes on and on... When I hear "Apple will deliver X by this time next year," I've learned to take that to mean "Apple will announce something about X by this time next year."
And, every time, the more optimistic fans on boards like this end up being disappointed because Apple didn't deliver on their wildest dreams; most notably, in recent times, the PowerBook G5--despite many many comments directly from Apple discouraging rumors that such a product was on its way.
It's not like I'm trying to kill speculation here, I just choose not to get myself all excited about something I consider to be a very remote possibility--in this case, Intel-based PowerBooks by January.
For example, no one expects the transition to start with the iMac. All bets are for the Powerbook, iBook and Mac mini.
Agreed 90%... This changes things because it makes more sense to start with the Powerbook... Everyone keeps saying they are going to start with the mini... this makes absolutely no sense what so ever... from every stand point I can imagine. This is what I was arguing over... the fact that the powerbook will preceed the mini because developers need pro intel machines before consumers need intel machines... otherwise expect very little intel compatible software.
[B]I can't remember a single time when Apple (or anyone else, for that matter) shipped a product six months earlier than anticipated. /B]
True, but we just don't know when to anticipate them, except that they should be shipping by next WWDC. Maybe he was lowballing it when he said that, or maybe he was pushing it like he usually does. But I certainly understand keeping your expectations low so as not to be disappointed
The "soon" here cannot be so... soon. The Powerbook cannot get the new 7448 from Freescale before this October, even if the announcement of the new models is for Apple Expo.
Why can't apple get them? Freescale announced the ships avail then for consumers yes... but I'd be willing to bet apple could get them before then... I'm sure that would be the biggest order for chips for freescale.
I believe that if they can't update the powerbooks with faster G4s before the end of the year, the PowerBooks will be the first to switch to intels before (or for) WWDC 2006. This doesn't exclude the fact that they can change the powerbook line in between, upgrading the 12" model to match the features of the 15 and the 17 models (GPU, ports...) and maybe turn it widescreen... they can also lower the prices (as the iBook 14" is now only $1299 well equipped).
A few months ago Apple updated the PowerBooks with every goodie they had available to them. I bought one because (1) I needed a new laptop and (2) the nature of their throwing the kitchen sink into the update suggested to me that this was likely to be the last G4 PowerBook.
Now Apple has done exactly the same thing with the iBooks, throwing in everything available to them, even a low-end Core Image compatible video card to sweeten the deal.
I seriously doubt we'll see any updates to the laptops before the Intel switch. Perhaps Freescale will make Apple an offer they can't refuse and Apple will bite, but I'll believe that when I see it.
I think the next Mac updates we're going to see will be the 970GX/MP flavors in the G5s, probably the GX in the iMacs and the MPs in the towers. These will be timed to distract us from the laptops. Then, next spring we'll see the first Intel-based laptops.
I'll be very surprised if Freescale can generate a production run to meet even Apple's minimum needs, and still leave the minimal 6-8 months following it for the Mactel rollouts. I think we're done with the G4s unless Intel hits a snag with the Yonahs.
Even better if they can. But either way, I don't expect them to announce new Powerbooks before the Apple Expo.
By apple expo, do you mean paris or MWSF?
I don't think they'd come out before MWParis... but I think that would be a great time to announce updates (8 months after the last update)... ride that out till the mactels. whatcha think?
I think the next Mac updates we're going to see will be the 970GX/MP flavors in the G5s, probably the GX in the iMacs and the MPs in the towers.
By 970gx...do you mean the low power 970fx that was just announced? I'm not aware of a 970gx that has been announced. I think freescale can come up with enough supply for 100k powerbooks... I think they would be delighted to do so.
Now Apple has done exactly the same thing with the iBooks, throwing in everything available to them, even a low-end Core Image compatible video card to sweeten the deal. ...
Is the ATI mobility 9550 Core-Image capable? Apple's site lists the ATI 9550, but not the mobility version?
Based on this logic wouldn't my ATI mobility 9600 be Core-Image capable since the ATI 9600 is listed but not the ATI mobility 9600?
Comments
Originally posted by PB
The "soon" here cannot be so... soon. The Powerbook cannot get the new 7448 from Freescale before this October, even if the announcement of the new models is for Apple Expo. Between now and then it is three months. Three months with the iBook cannibalizing the Powerbook (if the update was more aggressive) is not good.
That's true. But that's why it depends on when they can get an Intel into the Mac. The longer it takes for the new G4 to get into the PowerBook, the less chance there is that they'll use it at all, with the Intel Macs on there way in.
Originally posted by Reid
Why do so many people around here seem to think that Apple's going to have Mactel's by January? It was very clearly laid out, barely a month ago, that Apple would begin delivering Intel-based Macs "by this time next year" (i.e. June 2006), and have the transition completed by the end of 2007.
I think our AI fellows that support this position, are taking to the letter this statement from the PR:
plans to deliver models of its Macintosh? computers using Intel? microprocessors by this time next year
It does not say that they will START delivering "by this time next year"; only that there will be Intel based Macs by then. But I think they read too much on that.
Then, there is the interpretation of the new iBook updates. Perhaps, as evidence evolves, I will change later my mind, but for now I believe that the next Powerbook update will bring the 7448 chip.
Originally posted by Reid
Why do so many people around here seem to think that Apple's going to have Mactel's by January? It was very clearly laid out, barely a month ago, that Apple would begin delivering Intel-based Macs "by this time next year" (i.e. June 2006), and have the transition completed by the end of 2007.
To me, that means they'll have maybe one line available with Intel processors next summer. Whatever it is will probably be announced at WWDC--NOT Macworld--and ship sometime after that. I think it's very likely they'll have at least one PowerPC-based revision to the PowerBooks and Mac Minis before then.
if you honestly think that by this time next year means an intel mac being released at WWDC than I just don't know what to say to you. but, you're going to be very wrong.
by this time next year is not a schedule. it is not even a goal. it is a fact. for all you know tomorrow they could release an Intel mac. It is a very safe bet to say the powerbook will make the switch first and ASAP. it's the one product Jobs highlighted as gasping for Intel. But no, they won't update that right away with an Intel chip...nah..never...and you know what!? they'll wait till the last moment of wwdc2006 just to make it so that by this time next year is true!!! they'll never release it a day earlier!
Originally posted by BRussell
The longer it takes for the new G4 to get into the PowerBook, the less chance there is that they'll use it at all, with the Intel Macs on there way in.
Yeah, I think so. That is, if there is no new Powerbook before end October, mid November maximum, then the chances for a PowerPC Powerbook will have dropped like rock.
Well [moving to Intel] is not as dramatic as you're characterizing it. You know we've got some great PowerPC products today, and we've even got some PowerPC machines in the pipeline which we haven't introduced yet and this is going to be a more gradual transition. I think hopefully when we meet with our developers a year from today, we'll have some Intel-based Macs in the marketplace. But it's going to take maybe a two year transition...
Originally posted by Reid
Why do so many people around here seem to think that Apple's going to have Mactel's by January? It was very clearly laid out, barely a month ago, that Apple would begin delivering Intel-based Macs "by this time next year" (i.e. June 2006), and have the transition completed by the end of 2007.
To me, that means they'll have maybe one line available with Intel processors next summer. Whatever it is will probably be announced at WWDC--NOT Macworld--and ship sometime after that. I think it's very likely they'll have at least one PowerPC-based revision to the PowerBooks and Mac Minis before then.
Note that I said if. "If they can announce them at the January expo, to be shipped a month or so later." I don't consider it a sure thing, but it is a strong possibility.
Why? First, this is what Jobs said at the 2005 WWDC: "So when we meet here again, this time next year, our plan is to be shipping Macs with Intel processors by then." They plan on having already started shipping them by WWDC 2006, not just introducing them at that time, as you suggest.
Second, it is believed that Apple will use Yonah, and that chip will probably be available in early 2006, making it conceivable that Jobs could announce them in January - knowing that Jobs will often pre-announce completely new products so that there is a month-or-so time-lag before they actually ship.
Of course, this is all speculation. It may take a while before they can engineer the new PowerBook. But given Jobs' statement, and given the projected Yonah timeline, it is not unreasonable to say that the first Intel Macs might be announced at the January expo.
Originally posted by BRussell
Of course, this is all speculation. It may take a while before they can engineer the new PowerBook. But given Jobs' statement, and given the projected Yonah timeline, it is not unreasonable to say that the first Intel Macs might be announced at the January expo.
I can't remember a single time when Apple (or anyone else, for that matter) shipped a product six months earlier than anticipated. Every time in my memory that Apple announced a major new product line in advance of it shipping, it came later than they initially indicated: the original Power Macintosh, Copeland/System 8, Rhapsody/Mac OS X, the Power Mac G4, 3GHz G5, the list goes on and on... When I hear "Apple will deliver X by this time next year," I've learned to take that to mean "Apple will announce something about X by this time next year."
And, every time, the more optimistic fans on boards like this end up being disappointed because Apple didn't deliver on their wildest dreams; most notably, in recent times, the PowerBook G5--despite many many comments directly from Apple discouraging rumors that such a product was on its way.
It's not like I'm trying to kill speculation here, I just choose not to get myself all excited about something I consider to be a very remote possibility--in this case, Intel-based PowerBooks by January.
Originally posted by PB
For example, no one expects the transition to start with the iMac. All bets are for the Powerbook, iBook and Mac mini.
Agreed 90%... This changes things because it makes more sense to start with the Powerbook... Everyone keeps saying they are going to start with the mini... this makes absolutely no sense what so ever... from every stand point I can imagine. This is what I was arguing over... the fact that the powerbook will preceed the mini because developers need pro intel machines before consumers need intel machines... otherwise expect very little intel compatible software.
Originally posted by Reid
[B]I can't remember a single time when Apple (or anyone else, for that matter) shipped a product six months earlier than anticipated. /B]
True, but we just don't know when to anticipate them, except that they should be shipping by next WWDC. Maybe he was lowballing it when he said that, or maybe he was pushing it like he usually does. But I certainly understand keeping your expectations low so as not to be disappointed
Originally posted by PB
The "soon" here cannot be so... soon. The Powerbook cannot get the new 7448 from Freescale before this October, even if the announcement of the new models is for Apple Expo.
Why can't apple get them? Freescale announced the ships avail then for consumers yes... but I'd be willing to bet apple could get them before then... I'm sure that would be the biggest order for chips for freescale.
Originally posted by emig647
Why can't apple get them? Freescale announced the ships avail then for consumers yes... but I'd be willing to bet apple could get them before then...
Even better if they can. But either way, I don't expect them to announce new Powerbooks before the Apple Expo.
Now Apple has done exactly the same thing with the iBooks, throwing in everything available to them, even a low-end Core Image compatible video card to sweeten the deal.
I seriously doubt we'll see any updates to the laptops before the Intel switch. Perhaps Freescale will make Apple an offer they can't refuse and Apple will bite, but I'll believe that when I see it.
I think the next Mac updates we're going to see will be the 970GX/MP flavors in the G5s, probably the GX in the iMacs and the MPs in the towers. These will be timed to distract us from the laptops. Then, next spring we'll see the first Intel-based laptops.
I'll be very surprised if Freescale can generate a production run to meet even Apple's minimum needs, and still leave the minimal 6-8 months following it for the Mactel rollouts. I think we're done with the G4s unless Intel hits a snag with the Yonahs.
Originally posted by PB
Even better if they can. But either way, I don't expect them to announce new Powerbooks before the Apple Expo.
By apple expo, do you mean paris or MWSF?
I don't think they'd come out before MWParis... but I think that would be a great time to announce updates (8 months after the last update)... ride that out till the mactels. whatcha think?
Originally posted by Dave Marsh
I think the next Mac updates we're going to see will be the 970GX/MP flavors in the G5s, probably the GX in the iMacs and the MPs in the towers.
By 970gx...do you mean the low power 970fx that was just announced? I'm not aware of a 970gx that has been announced. I think freescale can come up with enough supply for 100k powerbooks... I think they would be delighted to do so.
Originally posted by emig647
By apple expo, do you mean paris or MWSF?
Apple Expo is in Paris. And that's what I mean.
I don't think they'd come out before MWParis...
There is no such thing like MWParis
but I think that would be a great time to announce updates (8 months after the last update)... ride that out till the mactels. whatcha think?
Exactly. I think this is what Apple will do, making good use of the latest Freescale offerings.
Originally posted by Dave Marsh
...
Now Apple has done exactly the same thing with the iBooks, throwing in everything available to them, even a low-end Core Image compatible video card to sweeten the deal. ...
Is the ATI mobility 9550 Core-Image capable? Apple's site lists the ATI 9550, but not the mobility version?
Based on this logic wouldn't my ATI mobility 9600 be Core-Image capable since the ATI 9600 is listed but not the ATI mobility 9600?
me constantly
Originally posted by rickag
Is the ATI mobility 9550 Core-Image capable? Apple's site lists the ATI 9550, but not the mobility version?
Based on this logic wouldn't my ATI mobility 9600 be Core-Image capable since the ATI 9600 is listed but not the ATI mobility 9600?
Don't worry about that. If a GPU is programmable, then its mobile counterpart will be too. At least for the models we are talking about.
Originally posted by rickag
Is the ATI mobility 9550 Core-Image capable? Apple's site lists the ATI 9550, but not the mobility version?
Based on this logic wouldn't my ATI mobility 9600 be Core-Image capable since the ATI 9600 is listed but not the ATI mobility 9600?
me constantly
I can personally state that the ati 9600 mobility is core-image compatible (I have one in my 1.25ghz pb 15")