Nick, if you're new to securities and trading, you shouldn't be going at things with a day trader's strategy (in fact no one that's moving less than a few $100k or $million at a time should be moving things that often [capital gains and fees, etc...]). Apple while a little more volatile than the GE's and Exxon's is still a large cap stock. You need to be willing to give things time and look at the greater trend not hour by hour stock prices. I'm personally evaluating my stake in Apple quarterly.
It isn't a day trader strategy that I am pursuing. I simply kept putting in a series of notifications to keep myself up to date on the matter without micromanaging the stock. However it has shown more volatility two weeks than many show in two years. I mean you are talking about a stock that has gone from 86 back to 71 and now back up in less than two weeks.
I have several other stocks. You are right they might go up one or two percent a day, week, whatever. However Apple really is a rollercoaster right now. I'm not trying to day trade it, but I'm not going to ignore my notifications for down 5%, down another $2 per share, etc.
Aarrgh!! I got in at 77ish - on margin. Wish I'd waited a week.
I love the reasoning in the article pointed to: Apple's made a lot of money in the past. They can't possibly maintain that growth; they must be done. Time to sell.
What?! I think I need to close my eyes and not open them till the WWDC or Apple Expo Paris.
I think I need to close my eyes and not open them till the WWDC or Apple Expo Paris.
- Jasen.
My feeling now is that it may be time to sit back and watch and wait. Wait to see how the Intel transition goes. Wait to see if market share increases due to Intel Macs. Watch for new products that might offer the same kind of upside as the iPod or even the flat iMacs. Watch for interesting deals betweeen Disney and Apple. If some of those things happen then jump back in.
I've been slowly buying it back, ever since I sold my shares at $84ish. I had bought them at $31ish almost a year ago. I don't understand people who sell a stock when it goes down. Why on earth wouldn't you buy a stock down, then sell it when it goes up, unless you are shorting it?
I just check the stock & so far it has dropped $4.89 so far today down
to $66.94. Was there some kind of announcement or story that
triggered today's selloff?
There is no reason to sell now unless you're strapped for cash. Stock is dropping because the uninformed investor has not idea that Apple has great products ahead (ie. set top box, better video iPods, increased revenue through video bussiness, successfull implimentation of intel based hardware). Those of you who know the hardware and can accurately anticipate this company should be at ease. If the stock is still dropping in April, than we have something to worry about. The sources I turn to for finanancial analysis are holding their price targets and explain the recent sell-off as investors not knowing how Apple can maintain growth. We at AppleInsider know there are products on the pipeline that will reignite the stock (hopefully in about 2-3 months).
In short if you own HOLD until April or later. If you don't own BUY or wait for the stock to drop a little lower (assuming it does) and BUY. If you are considering purchasing Apple stock, late March is probably your best bet.
Why not now? You think it'll go even lower? I am soooo close to BUYING. SO close. I told my self 65...Now I'm thinking perhaps I should be even more conservative and wait for at least 60.
Why not now? You think it'll go even lower? I am soooo close to BUYING. SO close. I told my self 65...Now I'm thinking perhaps I should be even more conservative and wait for at least 60.
Let's say you wanted to get 100 shares. Buy 50 of them now. Then if it gets to 60, buy 60 more. Then you've spent approx 63.50 per share. Keep buying it down. Then it only has to get back to 64 to make a profit - not 67....
Apple's stock has been taking a real pounding lately. I still plan to
keep it for a year or two but I was wondering if anyone had any ideas
as to why it's getting slammed.
IMO, analysts and investors are in love with companies that have accelerating sales. iPod business is maturing and investors are taking profits. IMO apple will need a new product, not just new models of old products, in order to get the stock moving.
Apple's stock has been taking a real pounding lately. I still plan to
keep it for a year or two but I was wondering if anyone had any ideas
as to why it's getting slammed.
It is getting slammed because the runup was built on hype. these runups are based on anticipated future earnings, on products that have yet to be developed. So there is a lot of uncertainty about future earnings and the ability of AAPL to hold onto franchises like online media distribution.
The analysts holding on reiterate that online media and the new generation of in home entertainment is a growth industry and Apple is uniquely well-positioned to take advantage of it. On these principles and on a few products that should be released later this year, bullish analysts see the stock being worth 100.
Also..Apple is a kind of risky bet...a lot of people made a lot of money on the way up -- except as long as you own teh stock you haven't really made any money...so the saying goes.
In any case Apple's future looks strong, and really think this is a great time to buy, the stock in the low 60's is a bargin in my opinion.
When you say that $60 is a bargin, what do you base that on?
Here is how I figure it - I divide the company into two parts, the first part is the big pile of cash:
$8/share in cash and assets
this is adding 69 cents to annual earnings now, and that will grow to 94 cents in 5 years.
And the second part is the growing company:
earning 1.35 now, and 2.31 in 5 years (according to value line estimates). This is 11.3% growth.
Based on the rule of thumb where growth rate should equal the P/E, Apple should be worth $21.23 per share when you add the two parts above back together again.
In order to believe that Apple is worth $60, you would have to change the earnings estimate for 2011 significantly - do you really believe that Apple will earn $6/share on revenue of $60/share in 2011 (or something like that).
$25 drop in two months is just painful to watch. What's even more frustrating are all the positive analyst articles talking about 8% share & that it's a strong buy & watching it still trickle downward. I'm still keeping my shares for another year or two but how about some gains already?!?
What e1234123 said is interesting. It just makes sense. So you are suggesting for current price, that means investors expect it to be doing 300% better in a year? That's quite an expectation. It leads me to believe $60 is not in fact a bargain, and is STILL overpriced. Unless Apple comes out with something great like an iPhone, or lands a huge MacBook or other product contract with a huge company (the Maine deal is a good start.)
So recently the AAPL stock was just way too overhyped. I'm waiting until a bit more... At least under 50 or so. I think it'll happen. I think investors are nervous about buying now since we are in the middle of the Intel transition and who knows would could happen. I hope there is a monumental screwup, some huge delay from Intel or flaw in a CPU that makes the stock crash. Then I'll buy a ton. I'm betting on it. I'm a betting guy though. That can't afford 60/share.
Besides, remember, it was 30 just back in the summer. I wish I'd bought then, sold when it was almost freakin 90.
The lowest the stock will/can go is about $53.30 which is what the company is valued based upon assets. That's with no anticipated growth. So I think the stock could drop a few more dollars but it's near a major resistance point. Goldman Sachs suggests we may be nearing an excellent buy point.
If Apple can strike the movie deals with Sony, Universal, 20th Century, etc... than I think the stock is good for at least $90/share in 12 months.
Comments
Originally posted by ngmapple
Nick, if you're new to securities and trading, you shouldn't be going at things with a day trader's strategy (in fact no one that's moving less than a few $100k or $million at a time should be moving things that often [capital gains and fees, etc...]). Apple while a little more volatile than the GE's and Exxon's is still a large cap stock. You need to be willing to give things time and look at the greater trend not hour by hour stock prices. I'm personally evaluating my stake in Apple quarterly.
It isn't a day trader strategy that I am pursuing. I simply kept putting in a series of notifications to keep myself up to date on the matter without micromanaging the stock. However it has shown more volatility two weeks than many show in two years. I mean you are talking about a stock that has gone from 86 back to 71 and now back up in less than two weeks.
I have several other stocks. You are right they might go up one or two percent a day, week, whatever. However Apple really is a rollercoaster right now. I'm not trying to day trade it, but I'm not going to ignore my notifications for down 5%, down another $2 per share, etc.
Nick
to $66.94. Was there some kind of announcement or story that
triggered today's selloff?
Originally posted by mello
I just check the stock & so far it has dropped $4.89 so far today down
to $66.94. Was there some kind of announcement or story that
triggered today's selloff?
I jumped back in at $74 and then have now bought more at $67. (hopefully cover some losses on the way back up to something reasonable)
There has been nothing announced at all in the way of bad news. In fact the only thing dragging it down is no good news and a questioning of growth.
Apple in retreat
Nick
I love the reasoning in the article pointed to: Apple's made a lot of money in the past. They can't possibly maintain that growth; they must be done. Time to sell.
What?! I think I need to close my eyes and not open them till the WWDC or Apple Expo Paris.
- Jasen.
Originally posted by jasenj1
I think I need to close my eyes and not open them till the WWDC or Apple Expo Paris.
- Jasen.
My feeling now is that it may be time to sit back and watch and wait. Wait to see how the Intel transition goes. Wait to see if market share increases due to Intel Macs. Watch for new products that might offer the same kind of upside as the iPod or even the flat iMacs. Watch for interesting deals betweeen Disney and Apple. If some of those things happen then jump back in.
Originally posted by mello
I just check the stock & so far it has dropped $4.89 so far today down
to $66.94. Was there some kind of announcement or story that
triggered today's selloff?
There is no reason to sell now unless you're strapped for cash. Stock is dropping because the uninformed investor has not idea that Apple has great products ahead (ie. set top box, better video iPods, increased revenue through video bussiness, successfull implimentation of intel based hardware). Those of you who know the hardware and can accurately anticipate this company should be at ease. If the stock is still dropping in April, than we have something to worry about. The sources I turn to for finanancial analysis are holding their price targets and explain the recent sell-off as investors not knowing how Apple can maintain growth. We at AppleInsider know there are products on the pipeline that will reignite the stock (hopefully in about 2-3 months).
In short if you own HOLD until April or later. If you don't own BUY or wait for the stock to drop a little lower (assuming it does) and BUY. If you are considering purchasing Apple stock, late March is probably your best bet.
Originally posted by Aquatic
Why not now? You think it'll go even lower? I am soooo close to BUYING. SO close. I told my self 65...Now I'm thinking perhaps I should be even more conservative and wait for at least 60.
Let's say you wanted to get 100 shares. Buy 50 of them now. Then if it gets to 60, buy 60 more. Then you've spent approx 63.50 per share. Keep buying it down. Then it only has to get back to 64 to make a profit - not 67....
keep it for a year or two but I was wondering if anyone had any ideas
as to why it's getting slammed.
Originally posted by mello
Apple's stock has been taking a real pounding lately. I still plan to
keep it for a year or two but I was wondering if anyone had any ideas
as to why it's getting slammed.
IMO, analysts and investors are in love with companies that have accelerating sales. iPod business is maturing and investors are taking profits. IMO apple will need a new product, not just new models of old products, in order to get the stock moving.
The best Apple Analysts have very possitive news on Q1 sales and everyone here knows there's a big announcement comming April 1st.
1. Anyone that owns shares in AAPL now should certainly wait until after April 1st if they're considering a sale.
2. The Q1 earnings report may bring good news (to early to say though).
In any case Apple's future looks strong, and really think this is a great time to buy, the stock in the low 60's is a bargin in my opinion.
Originally posted by mello
Apple's stock has been taking a real pounding lately. I still plan to
keep it for a year or two but I was wondering if anyone had any ideas
as to why it's getting slammed.
It is getting slammed because the runup was built on hype. these runups are based on anticipated future earnings, on products that have yet to be developed. So there is a lot of uncertainty about future earnings and the ability of AAPL to hold onto franchises like online media distribution.
The analysts holding on reiterate that online media and the new generation of in home entertainment is a growth industry and Apple is uniquely well-positioned to take advantage of it. On these principles and on a few products that should be released later this year, bullish analysts see the stock being worth 100.
Also..Apple is a kind of risky bet...a lot of people made a lot of money on the way up -- except as long as you own teh stock you haven't really made any money...so the saying goes.
Originally posted by ngmapple
In any case Apple's future looks strong, and really think this is a great time to buy, the stock in the low 60's is a bargin in my opinion.
When you say that $60 is a bargin, what do you base that on?
Here is how I figure it - I divide the company into two parts, the first part is the big pile of cash:
$8/share in cash and assets
this is adding 69 cents to annual earnings now, and that will grow to 94 cents in 5 years.
And the second part is the growing company:
earning 1.35 now, and 2.31 in 5 years (according to value line estimates). This is 11.3% growth.
Based on the rule of thumb where growth rate should equal the P/E, Apple should be worth $21.23 per share when you add the two parts above back together again.
In order to believe that Apple is worth $60, you would have to change the earnings estimate for 2011 significantly - do you really believe that Apple will earn $6/share on revenue of $60/share in 2011 (or something like that).
How much longer until it starts to rebound?
So recently the AAPL stock was just way too overhyped. I'm waiting until a bit more... At least under 50 or so. I think it'll happen. I think investors are nervous about buying now since we are in the middle of the Intel transition and who knows would could happen. I hope there is a monumental screwup, some huge delay from Intel or flaw in a CPU that makes the stock crash. Then I'll buy a ton. I'm betting on it. I'm a betting guy though. That can't afford 60/share.
Besides, remember, it was 30 just back in the summer. I wish I'd bought then, sold when it was almost freakin 90.
If Apple can strike the movie deals with Sony, Universal, 20th Century, etc... than I think the stock is good for at least $90/share in 12 months.