2006 predictions - part one

in General Discussion edited January 2014
Inspired by Ars.

This could be a fun thing to do. Put our convictions in writing and then have a look at it this time next year.

Lets divide it in two phases. First collect some statements that has an outcome that can be determined as yes or no. Lets give it a week. I´ll pick the best and then let everybody place their predictions on them.

Lets have three categories: Apple, tech in general and other.

My suggestions would be:

Apple: Their stock is worth less on the january 20, 2007 than on marts 20, 2006. Ipod sales grew less than half in units sold in 2006 than in 2005. On january 20, 2006 the iBook has dual core chips.

Tech: Hmm can´t think of any

Other: Iranian uranium facility of some kind bombed. Kadima won most votes in the Israeli election and created a government together with Labour.


  • Reply 1 of 62
    gene cleangene clean Posts: 3,481member
    Apple: released yet another controversial ad.

    Tech: SCO fails miserably and IBM + Novell kick their Microsoft-fanboy-ass with their anti-SCO litigation.

    Other: Pakistan keeps developing more and more nuclear weapons, together with India; the US makes a deal with North Korea whereupon NK gets a 'civilian' reactor in exchange for halting their programs, Bin Laden sends more 'hip' tapes, and we still continue to hear fritz about Iran.
  • Reply 2 of 62
    Apple: A 10 gig flash iPod Video, maybe a 20 gig one.

    Tech: Apple's market cap will continue to exceed that of Dell's.

    Other: I have sex with Catherine Bell.
  • Reply 3 of 62
    I did 2 for each, hope you dont mind!


    1 - Apple have a movie store holding programs more than one and a half hours long.

    2 - Have at least 10% of the market share by MWSF 07.


    1 - The format wars starts and finishes with hd-dvd being announced dead.

    2 - Windows Vista is not yet retailing (31/12/06)


    1 - England wins the world cup (football)

    2 - The targets for global warming will not have been met

    Anders, did you mean 2006 or 2007 in your iBook dual core one?

  • Reply 4 of 62
    cosmonutcosmonut Posts: 4,872member
    Apple: After staggering sales of iPods the previous two years, sales will level off (read: decline) with fewer iPods sold during Chrismahannukwanzukah '06 than '05.

    Tech: The release of Sony Playstation 3 will give Blu-ray a significant advantage over HD-DVD out of the gate.

    Other: At least one huge hurricane will strike the United States in the '06 hurricane "season."
  • Reply 5 of 62
    Apple: Although iPod sales will decline, swithchers from Windows will increase substantially as Apple stock continues to increase. Beginning of new year sees all major apps finally running natively on Mactels with the recent intro of new Powermacs (2 dual cores for all).

    Tech: Xbox gets pummelled by PS3 because of initial lack of 360 availability until at least mar-apr '06. Even with the external HD-DVD drive for the 360 Blu-Ray wins because of the popularity of the PS3. Also, the 802.11n spec will finally be complete.

    Other: Cubs win world series and I've finally finished college
  • Reply 6 of 62
    andersanders Posts: 6,523member

    Originally posted by brclark82

    ...and I've finally finished college

    Pfffhhh. I started college at your age
  • Reply 7 of 62
    Apple: Stock surpasses 100 and then a 2:1 split ensues: all of this follows the first releases of XServe for Intel machines with a special XStation that ensues a joint venture with the major traditional engineering players including AutoDesk, PTC & Ansys. (wishful thinking I know) Apple enters the Enterprise Markets with a much broader approach leveraging XSan, XRaid, XServe and other products; all displays are refreshed and Apple finds Canon's/Toshiba's joint announcement intriguing enough to be an early adopter and this allows them to enter into the Home Theatre market as well as the Professional Media market are all ecstatic with this new SED technologies being developed since 1999. (http://www.canon.com/technology/display/)

    In tech: Security takes a sidestep with concerns about NSA overreach resulting in WiMax deployment of secure networks blocking access to the Fed without a warrant specifically from the FISA courts.

    Other: Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl XL
  • Reply 8 of 62

    -Music store goes to the "stock market" type model

    -iPod 80 gig released

    -More and more resellers drop out :-|

    -All other computers are eventually x86 (but apple has already said this)


    -Blu-Ray wins but HD-DVD put up a really good fight (better than now)

    -Adobe nixes half of the macromedia software and make Dreamweaver Better

    -MSFT releases "iPod Killer" (Creative is already out)

    -Ebay doesn't do too much with Skype

    -Google wins...everything...and know everything too...but won't be evil with it...and privacy advocated give them a break (oh, nevermind)

    -Sirius Satellite Radio surpasses XM's install base.
  • Reply 9 of 62
    murkmurk Posts: 935member
    Apple buys Disney. Steve's old Trojan Horse move again. How many more times could he pull that one off?

    Since I can't seem to get the link to work, here's a quote from the MarketWatch article:

    "I think he has an open option," Barron's quoted analyst Christopher Whalen, a New York-based managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics. "Disney is badly undervalued right now. Jobs might get an opportunity to take it out."

    Whalen argues that Jobs' unique familiarity with both the content and technolgy sides of Hollywood make the case for a bid more compelling.

    "The markets and Disney shareholders would welcome a merger led by their apparent savior, Steve Jobs," Whalen concluded

  • Reply 10 of 62

    Drops prices for the Cinema Displays...

    -20=inch -> $499

    -23=inch -> $999

    -30=inch -> $1999

    -new 36/40=inch display -> $2499(/$2999?)

    -New iPod with integrated camera.(edit: I mean a good quality camera)


    -HP takes a big chunk out of Dell's market share.


    -Bush's approval rating will drop under 30%... very close to 20%
  • Reply 11 of 62
    These would be my yes/no suggestions:

    Apple Will Launch Any/All in '06

    - an iPhone

    - a media center

    - a tablet

    - new Airports featuring video streaming

    - Leopard


    - PS3 is released this year in NA

    - HD-DVD discs are outsold by Blu-ray discs

    - High definition video from companies belonging to the MPAA is sold online (not rented/pay per view but actually purchasable forever)


    - Democrats/Republicans will dominate the Governor elections

    - Iraq will/will not descend into civil war (or be fragmented into 2 or more countries)
  • Reply 12 of 62
    backtomacbacktomac Posts: 4,579member
    A most excellent thread.

    My 2 cents.

    Apple: Stock closes below 40 after christmas due to weaker than expected iPod sales.

    Tech: Vista gets cool reception

    Other: Oil briefly reaches $100 a barrel over the summer.
  • Reply 13 of 62
    Windows vista source code will be on the net for the pleasure of hackers and OS X will still be safe.

    Origami project will be one of the most publicited failures of MS.

    First two levering Apple switch.

    Apple will expand its market share and geographicaly positioning their products/services everywhere,

    Xbox ruled out ps3.
  • Reply 14 of 62
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    iPod Vid



    Pro Mac

    New Shuffle

  • Reply 15 of 62
    cosmonutcosmonut Posts: 4,872member
    I think we're ready for Part II, Anders.
  • Reply 16 of 62
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member

    Originally posted by CosmoNut

    I think we're ready for Part II, Anders.

    I agree
  • Reply 17 of 62
    zozo Posts: 3,117member

    - Refurbished TAMs (Twentieth Anniversary Macs) with Intel Core Duos "We couldn't be bothered to do anything new.. "

    - iBrators (FINALLY!)


    - Vista Launches

    - Duke Nuk'em Forever Available

    - Battlefield 2 bug free and loads under 5 minutes

    [edit: Ooops, I thought these were April 1st predictions ]
  • Reply 18 of 62
    lexicon5lexicon5 Posts: 572member
    Apple Creative Suite that is Universal.

    An iLife Pro of sorts

    Aperture (Lightroom Killer)

    iPhoto Pro (Photoshop killer)

    iSomething or other (Illustrator killer)


    They've effectively killed other apps, Adobe Premier comes to mind. Aperture didn't have any competition until Lightroom and it's a lame attempt IMHO.

    If Apple does the same quality with a "Creative Suite" of tools like they have done with Final Cut Pro, Logic Pro and Aperture....well...let's just say Adobe better release a Universal version of CS 2 instead of waiting for a CS3....I don't think Apple is happy with the foot dragging...pushing back the release of a new tower isn't in anybody's best interest.
  • Reply 19 of 62
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    Seems unlikely, since Adobe completely owns the Illustrator and Photoshop space. Not that I would mind Apple giving it the old college try...
  • Reply 20 of 62
    Apple: Tablet, Mac Mini becomes Media Center, Workstation with Woodcrest Xeons, Conroe goes into iMac or new desktop.

    No one cares about the iPod

    Tech; Neither Xbox 360 or PS3 gain market dominance, same with HDDVD and Bluray, as consumers fail to be sucked into rebuying their movie collections (again!!)

    Edit: Vista comes out late, no one cares

    World: Bush blusters about Iran but doesnt bomb/invade, unlike Iraq, Iran will actually fight back. Global warming gets worse and gas prices skyrocket. Me takes the bike out of the basement and starts riding again
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