PiperJaffray: "75 percent chance" of an Apple iPhone

Posted:
in iPod + iTunes + AppleTV edited January 2014
Research and investment firm PiperJaffray this week told clients it would be buyers of Apple Computer shares given the recent pullback, explaining that the company should soon benefit from Intel Mac sales and is very likely to announce a cellphone-based product in the near term.



Speaking to clients in a brief research note on Wednesday, analyst Gene Munster said an extrapolation of the first two months of iPod data from NPD suggests that shipments of the players during Apple's current (March) quarter will essentially fall in line with estimates.



"Earlier today, we received the second month of iPod retail NPD data for Apple's March quarter," Munster wrote. "Our preliminary analysis of iPod unit shipment data from NPD leads us to believe that Apple is on track to meet or be slightly below our 9.0 [million] iPod unit assumptions."



According to the analyst, the current data suggests iPod unit shipments for the quarter will fall between 8.8 million and 9.1 million units.



"We would be buyers of Apple on today's pullback given we believe iPod demand will accelerate in mid-2006, based on upcoming positive seasonality and new form factor iPod's," the analyst wrote. "Additionally, we believe Apple will benefit from the new Intel-based Mac's, along with what we estimate to be a 75 percent chance of a iPhone in the next 12 months."



PiperJaffray maintains an Outperform rating on Apple shares with a price target of $103.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 33
    Doubt we'll get the phone here in Japan.
  • Reply 2 of 33
    nauticalnautical Posts: 109member
    As unlikely as I think this iPhone rumor is, I sure would like to see it happen though. I'm in the market for a new mobile phone right now and every one I've contemplated was filled to the brim with features I don't need and had less than overly complex user interfaces combined with tasteless industrial design.
  • Reply 3 of 33
    tednditedndi Posts: 1,921member
    I think that it would be more of a Voipod than a true cellular phone.



    That is, an ipod with limited wifi for downloading music and for voip calls.
  • Reply 4 of 33
    irelandireland Posts: 17,751member
    I can be an analyst too! Watch this!





    Judging by my overwhelming hunch, I think Piper Jaffery is underplaying it!



    My years of experience are telling me it's more like 76.3 percent.
  • Reply 5 of 33
    Quote:

    Originally posted by AppleInsider

    new form factor iPod's



    new Intel-based Mac's




    Jesus, now even professional papers for public distribution have this apostrophe shit.



    It's a sad, sad day.
  • Reply 6 of 33
    Hmmm, I don't know about this one. I'm confident Apple can do it well, but the market for Mobiles is so saturated that Apple better do it right. Either had a killer UI or somethink unique.
  • Reply 7 of 33
    Even if Apple manage to make the world's best, most intuitive mobile phone, bar none, they will still have an uphill battle to get it into the hands of customers... Due to the way the mobile phone market works and the way phones are subsidised by carriers.



    I'm not saying Apple won't try, but I can't see this happening in the near future.
  • Reply 8 of 33
    irelandireland Posts: 17,751member
    Ah, but I can!



    But in all seriousness, why 75% and where did that percentage from!
  • Reply 9 of 33
    I can see Apple introducing a mobile phone of some kind. I think the reason that Apple teamed up with Cingular and included iTunes on some phones was some sort of test to see how well those sold, and if the reason people bought them were because of the iTunes feature.
  • Reply 10 of 33
    chris cuillachris cuilla Posts: 4,825member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Ireland

    Ah, but I can!



    But in all seriousness, why 75% and where did that percentage from!




    No kidding! I mean I am estimating 72.4%. 75% is just outrageous!



  • Reply 11 of 33
    Quote:

    Doubt we'll get the phone here in Japan.



    Japan your spoiled with cell phones! I'm sorry but the phones availible to people in the US through their plans.....They all suck! seriously. That is one thing I never understood and still dont. Why does the US have to be 2 years behind in cell phone technology?



    I just bought the Sony Ericsson w800 online and its AWESOME! The only problem I have with it is that it doesnt have iTunes.



    My point is why cant Cell companies provide Americans with good phones?



    Hopefully Apple will change this. Although if the w800 could have itunes on it....it would be the best phone on the planet. BAR NONE!



    oh....and to stay on topic...yeah 75% chance in 12 months....i wonder what the % would be if they would have said 13 months? maybe 79%..
  • Reply 12 of 33
    macmikemacmike Posts: 96member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Robin Hood

    Even if Apple manage to make the world's best, most intuitive mobile phone, bar none, they will still have an uphill battle to get it into the hands of customers... Due to the way the mobile phone market works and the way phones are subsidised by carriers.



    I'm not saying Apple won't try, but I can't see this happening in the near future.




    Apple could become a virtual mobile network, leasing capacity from a larger provider like Cingular. iPhones could be sold from Apple stores and other retailers that cell iPods and also phone (like Best Buy). I think a Nano type device with phone capabilities would make a lot of people happy.



    It's interesting the analyst didn't say anything about a possible movie download service.
  • Reply 13 of 33
    Apple Creates an MVNO (i.e. Apple is a virtual branded carrier like Virgin Mobile or Disney Mobile), an iPhone backed by a DRM-based content delivery system leveraging an enormous existing base of iTunes users. It's the killer combo: handset, carrier, and content delivery.



    See this article:



    http://www.tangentmobile.com/2006/01...king-up-steam/
  • Reply 14 of 33
    irelandireland Posts: 17,751member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Chris Cuilla

    No kidding! I mean I am estimating 72.4%. 75% is just outrageous!







    Are you crazy!

    Where in the hell did you get those facts from. That is way too low!



    My precise calculations tell me it's more likely to be 72.46%
  • Reply 15 of 33
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,951member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Robin Hood

    Even if Apple manage to make the world's best, most intuitive mobile phone, bar none, they will still have an uphill battle to get it into the hands of customers... Due to the way the mobile phone market works and the way phones are subsidised by carriers.



    I would think that it would be sold through the carriers much like Nokia, Samsung and such.



    I've also heard a suggestion about six months ago that Apple could start up a virtual carrier that leases service from the real carriers, much like Disney and ESPN have.
  • Reply 16 of 33
    irelandireland Posts: 17,751member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by JeffDM

    I would think that it would be sold through the carriers much like Nokia, Samsung and such.



    I've also heard a suggestion about six months ago that Apple could start up a virtual carrier that leases service from the real carriers, much like Disney and ESPN have.




    Excuse my ignorance but i'm from Europe and things work differently here.



    What does that mean ??:



    (virtual carrier)
  • Reply 17 of 33
    icibaquicibaqu Posts: 278member
    there's a thread on applenova about a patent filing for Aloha! in Hong Kong.



    could be related.
  • Reply 18 of 33
    irelandireland Posts: 17,751member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by icibaqu

    there's a thread on applenova about a patent filing for Aloha! in Hong Kong.



    could be related.




    fuck applenova!
  • Reply 19 of 33
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Ireland

    Excuse my ignorance but i'm from Europe and things work differently here.



    What does that mean ??:



    (virtual carrier)




    MVNO's were created in Europe. Virgin Mobile is one of them.
  • Reply 20 of 33
    chris cuillachris cuilla Posts: 4,825member
    120 of the 135 mobile phone handset makers lose money.
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