Sales of Apple's iPod, Adobe's Creative Suite weaken
While acknowledging that it is too early to make an accurate prediction on Apple's June quarter iPod results, analysts for PiperJaffray have analyzed the first month of NPD data for the quarter and found that iPod unit shipments appear to be reflecting some slight downside.
"Our analysis of iPod unit data from NPD for the month of April leads us to a preliminary iPod number of 8.0 million for the June quarter," analyst Gene Munster told clients on Monday. "The 8.0 million unit number is based on various assumptions and is an extrapolation of one month of data, so we believe investors should supplement this datapoint with other information."
Munster said The Street is currently looking for Apple to posts sales of 8.6 million iPods during the quarter, ahead of his own estimate of 8.25m and the 8.0 million units suggested by his first month analysis of NPD data.
"Recent chatter in various articles and web postings about trends with component suppliers have suggested that iPod units were slower than expected in April, so we do not think investors will be surprised by this early datapoint," Munster said. "As a result of 'Grads and Dads' buying we believe May and June iPod sales will likely be better than what was seen in April."
By the time the second month of iPod data is release by NPD, Munster believes his analysis will likely lead to a slightly different iPod unit figure that what his current analysis suggests.
Meanwhile, the analyst said NPD data for the first two month's of Adobe's May quarter indicates a slow down in orders for the company's Creative Suite bundle as consumers begin to anticipate the launch of Creative Suite 3.0 in the spring of 2007.
"Since Adobe provided its second quarter intra-quarter update on May 2nd indicating that it expects results toward the lower end of guidance based on 'spring break,' investors have been trying to get their arms around causes of weakness in the quarter," Munster told clients. "Based on an analysis of NPD data, we believe the beginning of a slow down in the Creative Suite prior to CS3 are likely the cause of the company pointing to the low end of guidance for Q2."
PiperJaffray maintains Outperform ratings on both Apple and Adobe, with respective price targets of $99 and $45.
"Our analysis of iPod unit data from NPD for the month of April leads us to a preliminary iPod number of 8.0 million for the June quarter," analyst Gene Munster told clients on Monday. "The 8.0 million unit number is based on various assumptions and is an extrapolation of one month of data, so we believe investors should supplement this datapoint with other information."
Munster said The Street is currently looking for Apple to posts sales of 8.6 million iPods during the quarter, ahead of his own estimate of 8.25m and the 8.0 million units suggested by his first month analysis of NPD data.
"Recent chatter in various articles and web postings about trends with component suppliers have suggested that iPod units were slower than expected in April, so we do not think investors will be surprised by this early datapoint," Munster said. "As a result of 'Grads and Dads' buying we believe May and June iPod sales will likely be better than what was seen in April."
By the time the second month of iPod data is release by NPD, Munster believes his analysis will likely lead to a slightly different iPod unit figure that what his current analysis suggests.
Meanwhile, the analyst said NPD data for the first two month's of Adobe's May quarter indicates a slow down in orders for the company's Creative Suite bundle as consumers begin to anticipate the launch of Creative Suite 3.0 in the spring of 2007.
"Since Adobe provided its second quarter intra-quarter update on May 2nd indicating that it expects results toward the lower end of guidance based on 'spring break,' investors have been trying to get their arms around causes of weakness in the quarter," Munster told clients. "Based on an analysis of NPD data, we believe the beginning of a slow down in the Creative Suite prior to CS3 are likely the cause of the company pointing to the low end of guidance for Q2."
PiperJaffray maintains Outperform ratings on both Apple and Adobe, with respective price targets of $99 and $45.
Comments
/sar
Originally posted by wilco
A Leopard with a weapon can break Windows
Seriously dude, you really ought to consider laying off the crack-pipe.
Originally posted by Ireland
Apple is doomed, doomed I tell you!!
/sar
Why is it that Apple is doomed could you elaborate?
Originally posted by Flounder
Seriously dude, you really ought to consider laying off the crack-pipe.
He's just repeating what Ireland has as his signature. If I understand correctly, he finds that sentence to be nonsense and he is says it everytime Ireland makes a comment.
/sar
you would know that he was being sarcastic. He's making fun off some people out there who WILL use this speculation on the part of gene Munster to sincerely state that Apple IS doomed (as has been said of Apple for years).
Get it?
As for this supposition by Munster, he could be right. It's impossible for any company to continue the skyrocketing trajectory in sales that Apple has attained all this time. It's -probably cyclical, could be people waiting for the much rumored next-gen iPod, or it could be that those who wanted to jump on the portable MOP3 bandwagon have done so and interest is "normalizing", if you will. After all, there are still BILLIONS of people around the world who have bought NO MP3 player of any brand. In fact, one could say that the market is wide open for any maker, except for the fact that Apple has captured significant mindshare, and the installed iPod base has also created an awesome third party array off peripherals, support and so on... even creating a separate phenomenon of Podcasting. So, although there's huge potential sales out there, Apple will still be the de facto choice by new users.
Originally posted by Thorsten
Why is it that Apple is doomed could you elaborate?
Old Apple joke. Officials everywhere has doomed Apple on several occations. I believe Michael Dell has done it 5+ times.
I personally know of two small agencies that are still using CS1 because they run one license on a half-dozen (or more) seats. Going to CS2 would force them to buy full licenses for everyone since (last I checked) Adobe doesn't have any sort of license server.
...at least everyone I talk to has pretty much abandoned Quark. Most have one install that they keep around just so they can open old or outside files.
Originally posted by unregistered
I personally know of two small agencies that are still using CS1 because they run one license on a half-dozen (or more) seats. Going to CS2 would force them to buy full licenses for everyone since (last I checked) Adobe doesn't have any sort of license server.
That's why Adobe's stellar results lately won't be repeatable/extendable. It was a one-time "everybody's got to pay to upgrade because of DRM" sorta thing. Users will tend to upgrade every other version.
If it weren't for the CS3-only Intel native ability, I would think CS3 sales would be in the tank. But since you have to upgrade to CS3 to get universal binaries, this may save Adobe's butt. So CS3 sales will probably be good but not great.
<dreaming>
I still want Apple to come out with a full design suite to complement Aperture.
</dreaming>
Xpress for Intel will launch very soon. Once the MacTower Pros launch, there will be pressure for pros to upgrade, regardless of what anyone is saying now.
Jobs needs the MacTower sales to takeoff, while Quark is desperate for the same.
It's therefore fairly obvious that Apple and Quark will reprise the "Buy a MacTower, and get Quark for half price" promotion from a few years back.
Adobe will have no choice but to fire back with a promotion promising a free or severely discounted CS3 if CS2 is purchased in late 2006.
It's truly a pity there's no competitor to Photoshop on the horizon. For the Pro market, this upgrade could actually be a lot of fun.
Most of the Sawtooth buyers (like myself) are ready to upgrade, and right now anyone with a 1.2ghz processor or less will see an improvement, even with Rosetta.
I'd be willing to bet that Apple is ensuring that the MacTower will be the must-have machine of the year, and sales will be off the chart.
Once that happens, it's Adobe that's going to see sales slow drastically.
Originally posted by Gene Clean
He's just repeating what Ireland has as his signature. If I understand correctly, he finds that sentence to be nonsense and he is says it everytime Ireland makes a comment.
Not exactly true, because he also started a thread about it