Apple upgraded by Needham on "switcher" outlook

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
Analysts for Needham & Co. upgraded shares of Apple Computer, Inc. to Buy from Hold after a new study showed the company's Boot Camp software has the potential to nearly triple its US PC market share.



In a recent survey commissioned by the firm, 8 percent of Windows users in the U.S home market said they would switch to a Mac if it could also run Windows. Such a shift in consumer preference would effectively increase Apple's share of the US and European home markets to 12.2 percent, the firm said.



"An increase of this magnitude would almost triple Apple?s share in the home market and increase it 75 percent worldwide," said analyst Charles Wolf. "Although a seemingly small percentage, it nonetheless dwarfs Apple?s current share of the home market."



Earlier this year, Apple announced plans to include a piece of software with the next version of its Mac OS X operating system that would allow Intel Macs to also run operating systems from rival Microsoft Corp. The software is currently code-named "Boot Camp" and available as a public beta.



Needham's survey also indicated that the Mac?s ability to run Windows could give the so-called "halo effect" a terrific boost -- over 20 percent of Windows users who own iPods indicated they would make the switch.



"The good news from Apple's perspective is the iPod's penetration rate among Windows users in our survey was only 13.6 percent despite worldwide iPod sales of over 50 million since the product was introduced in October 2001," Wolf added. "Our long-term forecast has the penetration rate of all music players (including the iPod) reaching 50 percent in the US in the 2010 to 2012 time period."



Still, the analyst warns that the Mac market share gains predicted by the survey will not occur in a vacuum. "It will fall on Apple?s shoulders to translate them into reality," Wold said. "We believe the Apple Stores could play a pivotal role in this effort. Hoards of Windows users visit the Apple Stores -- at least half of all visitors, according to some estimates."



Needham has a $90 price target on shares of Apple.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 47
    mr. dirkmr. dirk Posts: 187member
    The next logical step may be for Apple to offer Mac OS X and Windows on a Mac--perhaps Windows as a BtO option? That would facilitate user switching. The real question is, would it be too much of a shock for the core market (e.g. us) to take?



    While I feel certain that something of that nature is in the cards somewhere, I'm unsure of when... I would sort of hate for Apple to license XP from Microsoft, because it just sucks... Vista may be better, but what do you guys think?
  • Reply 2 of 47
    irelandireland Posts: 17,669member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Mr. Dirk

    Vista may be better, but what do you guys think?



    Better than what?
  • Reply 3 of 47
    mr. dirkmr. dirk Posts: 187member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Ireland

    Better than what?



    Better than XP, as an OS, and therefore it wouldn't be as much the sellout that offering XP on computers would be.



    I don't know--maybe that's just bullshit. Windows is Windows, and I'm sceptical that it'll get much better. So, in conclusion: Apple could just go ahead and offer XP as BTO alongside OS X standard?
  • Reply 4 of 47
    amac4meamac4me Posts: 282member
    I'm itching to see what Leopard has in store when it comes to Windows support. Apple has been touting that Boot Camp will be a feature that's included in Leopard. Could it be that Apple is just using Boot Camp to test the waters and generate interest and buzz.



    I say there's a good chance that we see Virtualization in 10.5.



    Overall, I've stated that I expect Apple will have 8% marketshare by the end of the Leopard OS X 10.5 lifecycle:



    In April 2006:

    ------------

    Macs - Boot Camp - Market Share - Switchers



    I've also taken the postion in various articles that Apple's market share is about to dramtically increase. It looks as though the analysts are starting to take note and agree with my views:



    In March 2006:

    -------------

    Macs are Faster - Benchmarking - Virtualization Technology - Increased Market Share



    In January 2006:

    --------------

    Apple Intel and Increased Market Share
  • Reply 5 of 47
    they should ditch the OS X and go with the rest of the world, this way they can actually compete with other big companies like Dell
  • Reply 6 of 47
    amac4meamac4me Posts: 282member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by iPickle06

    they should ditch the OS X and go with the rest of the world, this way they can actually compete with other big companies like Dell



    Apple is all about innovation, integration, and a great user experience. They are able to do this with a Mac running OS X and the various applications/programs that run on OS X. Apple won't ditch OS X. In fact, Apple is putting forth the argument that OS X is a better operating system.



    Just check out the Apple "Get A Mac" secction on the Apple web site.
  • Reply 7 of 47
    crees!crees! Posts: 501member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by iPickle06

    they should ditch the OS X and go with the rest of the world, this way they can actually compete with other big companies like Dell



    That made my day. I've been waiting for a good laugh. Thanks!
  • Reply 8 of 47
    zunxzunx Posts: 620member
    The real move is to offer Mac OS X for any PC box out there. That way Mac OS X will increase market share to 30% in a few years.
  • Reply 9 of 47
    Quote:

    Originally posted by iPickle06

    they should ditch the OS X and go with the rest of the world, this way they can actually compete with other big companies like Dell



    iPickle06- change your name to iIdiot06. Immediately. Unless you are kidding. In that case, it was kinda funny.
  • Reply 10 of 47
    jamezogjamezog Posts: 163member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by iPickle06

    they should ditch the OS X and go with the rest of the world, this way they can actually compete with other big companies like Dell



    To echo some of the other replies to this post: Apple doesn't care to beat the mainstream. Apple's aim is to offer a superior product to those willing to pay for it. I spend my days at an office working with XP, and it is a relief to have a computer at home that runs OS X. Apple is working a niche market in computing. They offer what companies like Dell simply can't, and I think they've done a fantastic job of it so far.



    Market share isn't the only way of determing a company's success. Nintendo is more profitable than Sony's video games department, and they only have a tiny fraction of the market share. Just some food for thought.
  • Reply 11 of 47
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Mr. Dirk

    The real question is, would it be too much of a shock for the core market (e.g. us) to take?



    I would sort of hate for Apple to license XP from Microsoft, because it just sucks...




    Surely the point is it don't matter what you (core martket) think about Apple licensing Windows or not. What you going to do? Not buy Apple product?.
  • Reply 12 of 47
    jamezogjamezog Posts: 163member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Mr. Dirk

    I would sort of hate for Apple to license XP from Microsoft, because it just sucks...



    What would suck even more would be to have to go out and buy Windows directly from Microsoft and pay more than what it would have cost to buy it bundled with my next Mac. I hate to sound like a Microsoft advocate, but that would make a difference to a lot of potential switchers.
  • Reply 13 of 47
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,876member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by Mr. Dirk

    Better than XP, as an OS, and therefore it wouldn't be as much the sellout that offering XP on computers would be.



    I don't know--maybe that's just bullshit. Windows is Windows, and I'm sceptical that it'll get much better. So, in conclusion: Apple could just go ahead and offer XP as BTO alongside OS X standard?




    I can't see them doing that. If they did, it would fuel much speculation of the long term fate of OS X, and I can't see them abandoning that for Windows.
  • Reply 14 of 47
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,876member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by iPickle06

    they should ditch the OS X and go with the rest of the world, this way they can actually compete with other big companies like Dell



    That would be a terrible idea.



    If Apple simply became another licensee of Windows, then there would be little reason to buy a Mac.



    Yes, they sure are pretty. Yes, models like the iMac have their appeal. But Apple would then have to compete with Dell, Hp, Lenovo, and Gateway on more levels. Those additional levels would be the budget lines. What could Apple do to distinguish themselves from the crowd with a $399 machine with monitor, and printer, in that case? What about the $499 laptops?



    No, I don't think that Apple is about to do that.



    And, if they didn't, they would then be just another boutique manufacturer such as Voodoo, and look at their sales numbers.
  • Reply 15 of 47
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,876member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by OfficerDigby

    Surely the point is it don't matter what you (core martket) think about Apple licensing Windows or not. What you going to do? Not buy Apple product?.



    That's exactly what would happen. Most of us do buy Mac's for the OS. Even though Apple is a hardware company by sales numbers, it's the OS that has most customers buying that hardware. Without the OS, most of those reasons go up in smoke.
  • Reply 16 of 47
    maccentricmaccentric Posts: 263member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by melgross

    That's exactly what would happen. Most of us do buy Mac's for the OS. Even though Apple is a hardware company by sales numbers, it's the OS that has most customers buying that hardware. Without the OS, most of those reasons go up in smoke.



    I think he meant offering Win XP on a Mac as a build to order option in addition to MacOS X for those users who would prefer to have windows preinstalled in a dual-boot configuration.



    I doubt that Mac users would get angry about that option as I believe that Apple has offered windows preinstalled about 10 years ago on their models which had the hardware pc card installed (I believe it was a pentium 1 with it's own ram, etc).
  • Reply 17 of 47
    backtomacbacktomac Posts: 4,579member
    Call me crazy but I would love to see makes come with Windows and virtualization software. Make it a BTO option. I would opt for xp until vista gets sorted out. I know many wonder about the fate of OSX if Apple starts distributing windows on macs, but many of us are dual users and that's just the reality. Being able to do it all on one machine is very attractive.
  • Reply 18 of 47
    brussellbrussell Posts: 9,812member
    How many years have analysts been saying there's going to be a huge surge in switchers, but it never seems to materialize.
  • Reply 19 of 47
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 31,876member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by MacCentric

    I think he meant offering Win XP on a Mac as a build to order option in addition to MacOS X for those users who would prefer to have windows preinstalled in a dual-boot configuration.



    I doubt that Mac users would get angry about that option as I believe that Apple has offered windows preinstalled about 10 years ago on their models which had the hardware pc card installed (I believe it was a pentium 1 with it's own ram, etc).




    Oops, you're right. I hit the wrong post to quote.



    Sorry, Digby, though I still don't think Apple will ever offer Windows as an installed OS.



    I meant to quote iPickle06



    Quote:

    they should ditch the OS X and go with the rest of the world, this way they can actually compete with other big companies like Dell.



  • Reply 20 of 47
    jamezogjamezog Posts: 163member
    Quote:

    Originally posted by backtomac

    Call me crazy but I would love to see makes come with Windows and virtualization software. Make it a BTO option. I would opt for xp until vista gets sorted out. I know many wonder about the fate of OSX if Apple starts distributing windows on macs, but many of us are dual users and that's just the reality. Being able to do it all on one machine is very attractive.



    EXACTLY.
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