Apple shares slide on analyst warning
Shares of Apple Computer continued their downward spiral on Wednesday, falling $2.24 or 4.03 percent after one Wall Street analyst warned that the company is likely to guide below the Street's consensus for its fourth fiscal quarter.
Apple's Q4
"We expect Apple to guide revenue below consensus of $5 billion, likely in the $4.6 - $4.8 billion range with earnings-per-share (EPS) of approximately $0.50 versus the Street?s $0.52," Credit Suisse analyst Robert Semple told clients.
The analyst said he believes the Cupertino, Calif.-based company will use its fiscal fourth quarter, which ends in September, to reduce iPod inventories ahead of refreshed models that will debut in either September of October.
Apple's Q3
Apple, which will announce the results of its third fiscal quarter next week, is likely to announce solid gross margins of about 100 basis points (or 1 percent) above its guidance of 28.5 percent, Semple said.
"This is primarily due to the combination of further iPod component cost declines, specifically for NAND and HDDs, and a more profitable mix of Mac sales, with a slight offset due to slowing software sales," he told clients.
For the quarter, Semple expects revenue of $4.4 billion and EPS of $0.46, ahead of Apple's guidance of $0.39- $0.43 and the Street's consensus of $0.44.
The analyst expects overall Mac shipments will grow 16 percent quarter-to-quarter to 1.285 million units, which will represent market share gains as the company continues to roll-out its Intel-based Macs.
"We believe Apple shipped approximately 450,000 MacBooks compared to our initial estimate of 310,000," he noted.
On the other hand, Semple said the company's prolonged iPod product cycle will likely cause it to miss the Street's iPod unit estimates of 8.25 million by about half a million units.
"On a near-term basis, we expect the stock to remain highly volatile based on the short-term focus around the timing of upcoming product introductions and their varying degrees of success," Semple added. "However, longer-term we continue to believe the stock is attractively valued."
Credit Suisse maintains an "Outperform" rating on Apple shares with a 12-month price target of $90.
Apple's Q4
"We expect Apple to guide revenue below consensus of $5 billion, likely in the $4.6 - $4.8 billion range with earnings-per-share (EPS) of approximately $0.50 versus the Street?s $0.52," Credit Suisse analyst Robert Semple told clients.
The analyst said he believes the Cupertino, Calif.-based company will use its fiscal fourth quarter, which ends in September, to reduce iPod inventories ahead of refreshed models that will debut in either September of October.
Apple's Q3
Apple, which will announce the results of its third fiscal quarter next week, is likely to announce solid gross margins of about 100 basis points (or 1 percent) above its guidance of 28.5 percent, Semple said.
"This is primarily due to the combination of further iPod component cost declines, specifically for NAND and HDDs, and a more profitable mix of Mac sales, with a slight offset due to slowing software sales," he told clients.
For the quarter, Semple expects revenue of $4.4 billion and EPS of $0.46, ahead of Apple's guidance of $0.39- $0.43 and the Street's consensus of $0.44.
The analyst expects overall Mac shipments will grow 16 percent quarter-to-quarter to 1.285 million units, which will represent market share gains as the company continues to roll-out its Intel-based Macs.
"We believe Apple shipped approximately 450,000 MacBooks compared to our initial estimate of 310,000," he noted.
On the other hand, Semple said the company's prolonged iPod product cycle will likely cause it to miss the Street's iPod unit estimates of 8.25 million by about half a million units.
"On a near-term basis, we expect the stock to remain highly volatile based on the short-term focus around the timing of upcoming product introductions and their varying degrees of success," Semple added. "However, longer-term we continue to believe the stock is attractively valued."
Credit Suisse maintains an "Outperform" rating on Apple shares with a 12-month price target of $90.
Comments
Telling us that Apple's stock is volatile is, well, a no-shit sherlock bit of info as well.
It hurts even more b/c I recently put alot more money in AAPL. I was so confident that I would see nice returns. What I did not realize was that the market is controlled by idiots with warped logic. People with intelligence get hit the hardest b/c we can't lower ourselves to think like they do
"What Microsoft is going to make an MP3 player?...We are doomed" WTF there are dozens of competitors now and apple is fine. Besides the fact that there is still plenty of room for growth even if they lose some of the ratio b/c the mp3 player market is about 1/5 saturated. Meaning apple could easily double the amount of ipods sold even if they lose some market share. And most of all Apple makes alot of money on their computer sector which is showing signs of explosive growth (which will be confirmed next week with earnings). Mac computers are the next iPod complete with all the hype that drives up prices.
I just pray that the idiots realize this.
Apple stock with "Outperform" ratings & future marketshare
increases because of bootcamp while watching the stock drop
$1 a day. It's almost back down to where I started...damn.
Originally posted by MacCentric
This is the analysts making themselves a nice buying opportunity before Apple blows away estimates next Wednesday. I think this may be the lowest you will ever be able to get Apple stock. This will give those analysts involved good bonuses when the stock reaches 90 after their company picked up large blocks at 53.
Usually Apple stock goes down after a positive quarterly earnings announcement.
And hopefully a new iPod SOON and later iPhone.
There are still lots of things to affect the stock that are still "in the pipeline"
(I forgot to quote Jeff so I redid it)
anyone know how to delete a post. I get a no access message.
Originally posted by JeffDM
Usually Apple stock goes down after a positive quarterly earnings announcement.
So if there is a negative quarterly earnings anouncement it will go...up?
Or are we in a lose lose situation.
Originally posted by wealjays
So if there is a negative quarterly earnings anouncement it will go...up?
Or are we in a lose lose situation.
Traditionally, Apple stock has dropped because Wall Street didn't make Apple the darling of the NASDAQ. This lack of confidence led blocks to be sold and drop the stock price. With Apple dominating the portable player market the stock has gone up several quarters after better than expected results.
Many analysts are being bearish until they get some press passes to WWDC and see for themselves just what Apple has in store with Leopard.
Microsoft made it an art to bullshit Wall Street and by the time the industry caught on they had a stranglehold.
You can only stay on top for so long.
Apple realizes that consistent innovation and timely distribution of new products will keep it on the forefront.
Originally posted by macbear01
"Apple shares slide on analyst warning." I'm so sick of people dumping stock because someone says that a company isn't going to surpass the "Street's" estimate. Why the hell to do companies even bother with their own guidance if what is important is the "Street's" guidance? The share price tumbles because SPECULATION that the company, which has direct access to ALL of the information, won't hit a number that they NEVER SAID THEY'D HIT! Half the things the analysts say were pulled directly out of their asses, and investors cling to every stinky word. Where's the logic in the share price drop? Didn't they rate Apple "Outperform" with a price target nearly double today's stock price?
I can simplify it for you. Before the stock stumbled, it's price was based on WHAT THE STREET HAD INITIALLY EXPECTED. If they had gone by what apple guidance, the stock would not have been this high in the first place and it would not have dropped. Get it?. At any moment in time, a stock price depends on perceived investor value. Unless you are a major investor and can effect the stock price, then you are at the whim of the professionals who trade in the stock. How the hell did you think it rose to 60 in the first place?.. cause of apple guidance?.. hahahahahahahahahaha. Yeah right!!!.
Now the stock price is merely reflecting what investors are thinking, just like it always does. Apple could be the healthiest company in the world and make scads of money and it's stock price can still drop. That could be true cause the current stock price is based on inflated expectations. To beat a dead horse, say apple said they would double their revenues and analyst expected triple, then their stock would soar and if you bought when low, you'd be happy but the stock price would have no relation TO WHAT APPLE SAID. Get it?. If apple then earnings then come in line with their prediction, it goes down. That is why a previous poster who said apple stock declines when they announce revenues is right. The revenues could be great (could be the best in company history even) but unfortunately, not in line with analyst inflated expectation and hence does not support the current stock price. The way i look at it is.. if you are happy when the analyst inflated expectation makes you ton of money, then live with it when the analyst inflated expectation loses you ton of money.. cant have your cake and eat it too. Just be smart and know when to buy and sell. Pay carefull attention, become smart about how they do their prediction and maybe (just maybe) you can use the analyst to make money at their game.
But what if AAPL's earnings beat both their and analysts expectations? Like I think will be the case with the Macs (not the iPods).
Originally posted by SpamSandwich
ROTFLMAO!
I meant to ask. What does that mean?
900+ post and this is a mystery?
anywho,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROTFLMAO
I particularly like the French equivalent: Mort De Rire ('Dying of laughter')
Originally posted by wealjays
What I did not realize was that the market is controlled by idiots with warped logic. People with intelligence get hit the hardest b/c we can't lower ourselves to think like they do
As far as I can tell, it really doesn't matter what Apple does as a company that makes $$. It matters that what they are doing is PERCEIVED as the new hotness by the analyst types.
- Jasen.
This thing is one hell of a rollercoaster though. Six Flags has nothing that can beat the appl stock chart.
Thank goodness I didn't have a large breakfast.
Nick